GM. Paramount, IBM, Stellantis are planning permanent mass lay offs starting now till mid October. The October cut will be interesting. Consumer confidence down.
By your logic we should be ready for a bull run since there hasnt been any major dips since fed cut rates. Also, history dont always decide future. Lastly, its easier being a bear than a bull. However, bulls make money 70% of the time while bears take the 30%
it's true... everybody has their own thoughts but not everybody is a billionaire - i just happened to work for a few of the ones who actually became billionaires through investing at hedge funds and institutional investment companies. hopefully i learned a thing or two over the past decades
It's starting this week I think, where the spx and gold start to diverge gradually. Will there be a 4% weekly drop this week? There'll be a slew of the all important jobs numbers this week. China news? Middle East escalation? Oh the big one East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike!! If the past do rhymes then gold will have ups and downs on it's upward trajectory, while spx will just go down slowly slowly 10-15% until it drops to that crash level.
As I charted in the video after this, I did think this week would indeed be a down week and took a position before the week began. As you thought, it appears to be the case thus far.
I'm readying for a 2007-2011 type crisis. Ready to take action. If the after effects of all the rate cuts are more benign, it's ok too. Gold will still outperform with all the lower rate/weak dollar. Question. 1) Do you think US banks are still heading towards a crisis? 2) What do you think of junior miners as potential 20+ baggers play if 2007-2011 happens? If yes, any recommendations?
That's a good long term plan, wrt to 1) yes and it's not just me saying it, it's Jamie Dimon the CEO of the largest bank in the US saying along with many others but the timing is key and 2) miners are laggards just look at the GDX they will have their time in the light, just like silver but much more volatile than Gold as a result of high potential returns... I currently have no allocation but will add little by little as the story unfolds
I'm curious on your thoughts on property. Being Asian, we tend to think of properties as something that we want to pass down to our kids. Some saying goes "at least they have a roof over their head". I'm wondering what is your stance on that. Also, I'd like to start a business (and maybe a sustainable non-for-profit) that they could "inherit" so at least they have a fall-back job. I'm wondering what are you thoughts on that too!
That is definitely true in Asia, just look at China where property is by far the largest store of wealth in households. Much more so than in the West. I think it is more of a cultural than an economic phenomenon - as you correctly describe, there are other methods to pass generational wealth and there is no single universal "best way" - tax efficiency to wealth development according to your abilities, network, and how "life" unfolds all contribute to what would work best for you. Personally, I like the direction you are going because that vehicle has "purpose" behind it rather being some empty instrument.
@@foftylife Interesting. What other assets you own that generate passive income? I still don’t plan to sell any equities because I collect dividends and premiums to cover my needs and wants.
@@Longtermalwayswins i think it's better to ask warren buffet that question since he's built up the largest usd cash position in berkshire hathaway's history after liquidating his equity positions in the past few months
mate your argument is flawed... what if i told you that QE didnt exist before 2008.... and what if COVID relief has actually pre-funded lots of corporates now siting in a lot of cash in their coffers, versus back in 2008, corporates were not cash rich.... Oh and btw 2008, majority of consumer residential loans were at 3 year fixed to variable rate mortgages, once the 3 mortgage gets past 3 year you get hit with a variable rate.... meanwhile the loan profile of US debt is now at 30 year fixed done back before 2020.... so no we dont have a 2008 credit crisis brewing on our hands.... Oh and please dont try to quote the 10y2y yield inversion, like i said we only manage to be inverted for nearly 2 years, because the economy was FLUSHED with cash post-covid..... we can afford to have a tighter financial conditions when you basically doubled the fed balance sheet in just 2 years where it took nearly a whole decade for fed balance to go from 2 trillion to 4 trillion.
As I’ve said, everybody’s got their own thesis but only a tiny few are made billionaires from investing - I was lucky to work for a couple of them and they influenced my thoughts. That’s it - nothing more, nothing less. I understand your points and also see and agree with the logic behind them. So please understand that I don’t disagree with your points. At the same time debating is pointless, as in politics, because valid points on differing sides can clash, and while both can be right, there is ultimately only one reality and future that all the permutations collapse into. Appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts.
@@foftylifeone thing for sure Permabears like Nouriel Roubini is perma wrong. Even if the US does go into a hard landing recession, you can bet that we’ll take less than the 4 years it took for SPX to fully recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Great that you’ve worked with some billionaires, its literally my daily job advising UHNW individuals. I work with them on the regular otherwise id be out of a job. If you want to protect yourself, just buy a put against SPX
@bastille92 permabears like grantham (which i am not) will say they are right twice a day just like a broken clock.. though my greater concern than some economic problem is global conflict, nukes, and wwIII - a timetable is set with both Putin and Xi at 70 yrs of age. just as you can bet about recovery, I can bet that before these two turn 80, they will want to leave their legacy which they know they can't do well at 80+yrs of age when waging wars. their financial machinery in brics+ has already been set and they will reveal to the world their alt fin plan in their upcoming summit, turkey being of special interest. i buy protection via vix instruments modified around 0DTE activity for more granular control
GM. Paramount, IBM, Stellantis are planning permanent mass lay offs starting now till mid October. The October cut will be interesting. Consumer confidence down.
With credit card debt at all time highs, and delinquencies rocketing higher, the cycle of layoffs consumer tapped out will continue to accelerate
By your logic we should be ready for a bull run since there hasnt been any major dips since fed cut rates. Also, history dont always decide future. Lastly, its easier being a bear than a bull. However, bulls make money 70% of the time while bears take the 30%
it's true... everybody has their own thoughts but not everybody is a billionaire - i just happened to work for a few of the ones who actually became billionaires through investing at hedge funds and institutional investment companies. hopefully i learned a thing or two over the past decades
It's starting this week I think, where the spx and gold start to diverge gradually. Will there be a 4% weekly drop this week? There'll be a slew of the all important jobs numbers this week. China news? Middle East escalation? Oh the big one East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike!! If the past do rhymes then gold will have ups and downs on it's upward trajectory, while spx will just go down slowly slowly 10-15% until it drops to that crash level.
As I charted in the video after this, I did think this week would indeed be a down week and took a position before the week began. As you thought, it appears to be the case thus far.
I'm readying for a 2007-2011 type crisis. Ready to take action. If the after effects of all the rate cuts are more benign, it's ok too. Gold will still outperform with all the lower rate/weak dollar. Question. 1) Do you think US banks are still heading towards a crisis? 2) What do you think of junior miners as potential 20+ baggers play if 2007-2011 happens? If yes, any recommendations?
That's a good long term plan, wrt to 1) yes and it's not just me saying it, it's Jamie Dimon the CEO of the largest bank in the US saying along with many others but the timing is key and 2) miners are laggards just look at the GDX they will have their time in the light, just like silver but much more volatile than Gold as a result of high potential returns... I currently have no allocation but will add little by little as the story unfolds
I don't think is this week. Yes, markets do repeat cycles. We shall see.
thanks for sharing your opinion
@@foftylife well today was down ..
the message isn't whether the market will go up or down, but rather that a signal is imminent
@@foftylife Oh yes, that I agree
two more trading sessions left this week, looks like the real action has been saved for these last tow days! =D
I'm curious on your thoughts on property. Being Asian, we tend to think of properties as something that we want to pass down to our kids. Some saying goes "at least they have a roof over their head". I'm wondering what is your stance on that.
Also, I'd like to start a business (and maybe a sustainable non-for-profit) that they could "inherit" so at least they have a fall-back job. I'm wondering what are you thoughts on that too!
That is definitely true in Asia, just look at China where property is by far the largest store of wealth in households. Much more so than in the West.
I think it is more of a cultural than an economic phenomenon - as you correctly describe, there are other methods to pass generational wealth and there is no single universal "best way" - tax efficiency to wealth development according to your abilities, network, and how "life" unfolds all contribute to what would work best for you.
Personally, I like the direction you are going because that vehicle has "purpose" behind it rather being some empty instrument.
Are you planning to sell more equities?
I've been selling into this rally and am almost all out... now I am building short positions
@@foftylife Interesting. What other assets you own that generate passive income? I still don’t plan to sell any equities because I collect dividends and premiums to cover my needs and wants.
besides gold, cash in the form of USD, some allocation into crypto, some private equity shares - the rest have been liquidated into the aforementioned
@@foftylifeusd is going to dip once money flows out of the us when rates cut. Why would you even do that?
@@Longtermalwayswins i think it's better to ask warren buffet that question since he's built up the largest usd cash position in berkshire hathaway's history after liquidating his equity positions in the past few months
mate your argument is flawed... what if i told you that QE didnt exist before 2008.... and what if COVID relief has actually pre-funded lots of corporates now siting in a lot of cash in their coffers, versus back in 2008, corporates were not cash rich....
Oh and btw 2008, majority of consumer residential loans were at 3 year fixed to variable rate mortgages, once the 3 mortgage gets past 3 year you get hit with a variable rate....
meanwhile the loan profile of US debt is now at 30 year fixed done back before 2020.... so no we dont have a 2008 credit crisis brewing on our hands....
Oh and please dont try to quote the 10y2y yield inversion, like i said we only manage to be inverted for nearly 2 years, because the economy was FLUSHED with cash post-covid..... we can afford to have a tighter financial conditions when you basically doubled the fed balance sheet in just 2 years where it took nearly a whole decade for fed balance to go from 2 trillion to 4 trillion.
As I’ve said, everybody’s got their own thesis but only a tiny few are made billionaires from investing - I was lucky to work for a couple of them and they influenced my thoughts. That’s it - nothing more, nothing less.
I understand your points and also see and agree with the logic behind them. So please understand that I don’t disagree with your points.
At the same time debating is pointless, as in politics, because valid points on differing sides can clash, and while both can be right, there is ultimately only one reality and future that all the permutations collapse into.
Appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts.
@@foftylifeone thing for sure Permabears like Nouriel Roubini is perma wrong.
Even if the US does go into a hard landing recession, you can bet that we’ll take less than the 4 years it took for SPX to fully recover from the 2008 financial crisis.
Great that you’ve worked with some billionaires, its literally my daily job advising UHNW individuals. I work with them on the regular otherwise id be out of a job.
If you want to protect yourself, just buy a put against SPX
@bastille92 permabears like grantham (which i am not) will say they are right twice a day just like a broken clock.. though my greater concern than some economic problem is global conflict, nukes, and wwIII - a timetable is set with both Putin and Xi at 70 yrs of age. just as you can bet about recovery, I can bet that before these two turn 80, they will want to leave their legacy which they know they can't do well at 80+yrs of age when waging wars. their financial machinery in brics+ has already been set and they will reveal to the world their alt fin plan in their upcoming summit, turkey being of special interest.
i buy protection via vix instruments modified around 0DTE activity for more granular control
make a video about crypto. shill your bags
that episode is coming... but i must say that my crypto holdings are a relatively small allocation - for now ;)