Great video!! Construction and manufacturing makes logical sense as being highly correlated to a more broad economic recession. But I’m not sold on them being driving forces or CAUSAL factors.. (not sure if you were making the causal case but seems implied at the end of the video) Construction is heavily tied to investments, as projects span years and require significant upfront capital. It makes sense that during times with reduced cash flow, companies are less willing to invest in construction projects. I’d argue this is more of a symptom of the recession than a cause. Manufacturing layoffs are probably indicative of reduced demand for retail. Which makes sense during recessions why people wouldn’t want to go out and spend money if they lost their job or perceive the economy as “weak”. To me it seems like recessions hit these two sectors the hardest for the above reasons, rather than either of them being the first domino to fall triggering a recession.
I think the end was pointing more towards the deepening of a recession, rather than the starting of one. He points out that, a recession at current payroll size and historical layoff rates would have Construction + Manufacturing making up 52% of total layoffs; to the extent that the labor market influences consumer demand (the people who buy things are often people with jobs), and supposing that the progression of declining consumer demand will continue to drive a recession (as opposed to just the initial drop), the point is that Construction + Manufacturing make up the lion's share of how deep or shallow a recession will "spiral." That is a good point, though, that it still only makes up a coincident or lagging indicator, not a leading indicator.
@@PeterBarnes2 Off main point: I must say (again); the _Intellectual Quality_ of this channel, and its subscribers and comments are exceptional - all things considered.
@@PeterBarnes2 As Currency Crisis effects bear on loan availability, the employment in Construction Jobs declines. The US Currency now faces a Crisis that will threaten the ability to finance construction projects. The FED is constrained by some economic facts to regulate the flow of Currency. Without support the Fiat Currency appears to demonstrate zero Value. How long can they stonewall the Public, with bullshit that has no value? The Treasury assured us they would support the Fiat Currency in 1970. They did for 30 years, with help from Saudi's and all the former Spanish Colonies. Now the US Currency indicates no value. How long will the US Fiat Currency survive after this becomes common knowledge?
Would be great if you could isolate transportation and review that a bit as well. Wondering if that sub component of its category would be more cyclical than the other two.
Transportation has been a victim of cost cutting since the early 1970's. Rail and Truck Traffic have seen replacement Drivers and Workers, every time the money becomes difficult to find. There is no lack of freight to move, but drivers who will work for peanuts , are becoming difficult to locate.
Thank you so much for this amazing video! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
Something is wrong with the data. In manufacturing payrolls at 1:42 you show a drop of around 0.8% in 2024. But when you combine manufacturing with construction in 4:08 you do not show any decline in 2024.
Analysing sector employment trends to discern the probability of recession presumes that the the real economy, not the financial economy, drives the larger economy overall when all evidence seems to suggest that the inverse is true.
According to this video, we don’t know when a recession will occur, but we know when it won’t. By that logic, no recession should have ever been a surprise, although it seems that every past recession was more or less unexpected. How can this be explained (if I’m right)? My explanation would be that reliable (accurate) data often comes with a delay of up to a year. Only after data revisions can we see that a recession was on the horizon. Can you do a video on this topic of data delay? Is there something to it?
I subscribe to one of EPB's services, and I am confident that the next recession is not going to be a surprise to the subscribers. It is fully expected. Data revisions are not important. I highly recommend a subscription to all those who need to take action if a recession takes place. The Fed should subscribe.
Only goldfish or newcomers could listen to your predictions with straight face... you have "predicted" housing crises two or three years ago... now I can't find that video! If you are going to predict every year that there would be a drop in 10-20% of something it will eventually happens... only after a run of ~200%
Yes, I know exactly what you are talking about and I am unable to find it either. It is part of the reason I delayed looking to buy for two years because he indicated it would likely be about two years for it to drop, two years ago. Let me know if you find it. It is hard to find usefulness of these videos if the points are overstated and require backtracking so much so that the video is removed. That appears dishonest to me.
Do be aware that real estate is extremely local. In some places, prices have gone down. In others it's only gone up. Unless you have a massive downturn or dramatically increased inventory, prices nationwide are not likely to go down.
What effect will tariffs and mass deportation have on construction and manufacturing? Google AI says: "According to a 2021 Center for American Progress report, about 23% of construction workers in the United States are undocumented immigrants. This is more than double the rate of undocumented workers in the workforce as a whole."
Then the 23% will be replaced. The new build homes now are quite honestly dog shit quality if you watch inspector channels on YT. The only people that will miss that labor pool are shit contractors and they should get fucked. "Oh but costs of houses will rise" well they're rising already and they are absolute shitty quality, if they go up more, but are better quality, at least we will live in a situation where people are getting what they pay for and a house that will survive the terms of the mortgage. Incredible concept. Same w muh sad baby strawberry pickers. Oh no, it will just automate or they will have to pay more. Most likely automate. At least machines dont give you ecoli from wiping its ass in the field before touching your produce. Pearl clutching at its finest.
Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them. People prefer to spend money on liabilities, Rather than investing in assets and be very profitable
You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires
You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires
*I really appreciate your clear and simple breakdown on financial pitfalls! I lost so much money on stook market but now making around $18k to $21k every week trading different stocks and cryptos*
Great video!! Construction and manufacturing makes logical sense as being highly correlated to a more broad economic recession. But I’m not sold on them being driving forces or CAUSAL factors.. (not sure if you were making the causal case but seems implied at the end of the video)
Construction is heavily tied to investments, as projects span years and require significant upfront capital. It makes sense that during times with reduced cash flow, companies are less willing to invest in construction projects. I’d argue this is more of a symptom of the recession than a cause.
Manufacturing layoffs are probably indicative of reduced demand for retail. Which makes sense during recessions why people wouldn’t want to go out and spend money if they lost their job or perceive the economy as “weak”.
To me it seems like recessions hit these two sectors the hardest for the above reasons, rather than either of them being the first domino to fall triggering a recession.
I think the end was pointing more towards the deepening of a recession, rather than the starting of one. He points out that, a recession at current payroll size and historical layoff rates would have Construction + Manufacturing making up 52% of total layoffs; to the extent that the labor market influences consumer demand (the people who buy things are often people with jobs), and supposing that the progression of declining consumer demand will continue to drive a recession (as opposed to just the initial drop), the point is that Construction + Manufacturing make up the lion's share of how deep or shallow a recession will "spiral."
That is a good point, though, that it still only makes up a coincident or lagging indicator, not a leading indicator.
@@PeterBarnes2 Off main point: I must say (again); the _Intellectual Quality_ of this channel, and its subscribers and comments are exceptional - all things considered.
@@PeterBarnes2 As Currency Crisis effects bear on loan availability, the employment in Construction Jobs declines.
The US Currency now faces a Crisis that will threaten the ability to finance construction projects.
The FED is constrained by some economic facts to regulate the flow of Currency.
Without support the Fiat Currency appears to demonstrate zero Value.
How long can they stonewall the Public, with bullshit that has no value?
The Treasury assured us they would support the Fiat Currency in 1970.
They did for 30 years, with help from Saudi's and all the former Spanish Colonies.
Now the US Currency indicates no value.
How long will the US Fiat Currency survive after this becomes common knowledge?
Congratulations on 100k subs! 😊
Thank you!
The 100k smartest and best looking community on youtube
Wow Presented in a clear and concise manner.Well done!
Would be great if you could isolate transportation and review that a bit as well. Wondering if that sub component of its category would be more cyclical than the other two.
Transportation has been a victim of cost cutting since the early 1970's.
Rail and Truck Traffic have seen replacement Drivers and Workers,
every time the money becomes difficult to find.
There is no lack of freight to move, but drivers who will work for peanuts ,
are becoming difficult to locate.
Great video
Their decentralized nature is really intriguing, and their focus on community-driven development could lead to some exciting innovations.
Congratulations for 100K subs.
Would be nice if all of these charts were on the same scale
Do you think the Fed is cutting rates to avoid more job losses?
Thank you so much for this amazing video! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
Do we have another bear capitulating?
Something is wrong with the data. In manufacturing payrolls at 1:42 you show a drop of around 0.8% in 2024. But when you combine manufacturing with construction in 4:08 you do not show any decline in 2024.
Analysing sector employment trends to discern the probability of recession presumes that the the real economy, not the financial economy, drives the larger economy overall when all evidence seems to suggest that the inverse is true.
Great videos, well earned 100k
According to this video, we don’t know when a recession will occur, but we know when it won’t. By that logic, no recession should have ever been a surprise, although it seems that every past recession was more or less unexpected. How can this be explained (if I’m right)?
My explanation would be that reliable (accurate) data often comes with a delay of up to a year. Only after data revisions can we see that a recession was on the horizon.
Can you do a video on this topic of data delay? Is there something to it?
I subscribe to one of EPB's services, and I am confident that the next recession is not going to be a surprise to the subscribers. It is fully expected. Data revisions are not important. I highly recommend a subscription to all those who need to take action if a recession takes place. The Fed should subscribe.
Thanks for sharing! So, no downturn in sight yet?
If this rule works the same in other countries, then China must be in recession as construction and manufacturing are dead there.
Good question.
This is a nice video but it seems to be missing the: "and therefore, ..."
100k yes congratulations 🎊 👏
What about the gig economy?
Hey, you're back. I thought you went to work somewhere else
Only goldfish or newcomers could listen to your predictions with straight face... you have "predicted" housing crises two or three years ago... now I can't find that video! If you are going to predict every year that there would be a drop in 10-20% of something it will eventually happens... only after a run of ~200%
Yes, I know exactly what you are talking about and I am unable to find it either. It is part of the reason I delayed looking to buy for two years because he indicated it would likely be about two years for it to drop, two years ago. Let me know if you find it. It is hard to find usefulness of these videos if the points are overstated and require backtracking so much so that the video is removed. That appears dishonest to me.
@ I’m happy to hear that I’m not the only one who noticed it
Do be aware that real estate is extremely local. In some places, prices have gone down. In others it's only gone up. Unless you have a massive downturn or dramatically increased inventory, prices nationwide are not likely to go down.
@ OP was pushing narrative of 2008 crisis, and market is just doing its thing with slight pullback
Use the web archive to view the page in 2022 and you're absolutely correct. He has a video that's now unlisted talking about a housing "crash".
So, what??
What effect will tariffs and mass deportation have on construction and manufacturing?
Google AI says: "According to a 2021 Center for American Progress report, about 23% of construction workers in the United States are undocumented immigrants. This is more than double the rate of undocumented workers in the workforce as a whole."
Then the 23% will be replaced. The new build homes now are quite honestly dog shit quality if you watch inspector channels on YT. The only people that will miss that labor pool are shit contractors and they should get fucked. "Oh but costs of houses will rise" well they're rising already and they are absolute shitty quality, if they go up more, but are better quality, at least we will live in a situation where people are getting what they pay for and a house that will survive the terms of the mortgage. Incredible concept.
Same w muh sad baby strawberry pickers. Oh no, it will just automate or they will have to pay more. Most likely automate. At least machines dont give you ecoli from wiping its ass in the field before touching your produce.
Pearl clutching at its finest.
👍
instant click.
Can you do a video on ghost jobs?
Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them. People prefer to spend money on liabilities, Rather than investing in assets and be very profitable
You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires
You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires
*I really appreciate your clear and simple breakdown on financial pitfalls! I lost so much money on stook market but now making around $18k to $21k every week trading different stocks and cryptos*
Hello how do you make such??? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦♀️of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God
I'm guided by Josh Olfert. A widely known consultant
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