America's Income Crisis: How It's Triggering a Collapse in Birth Rates
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- Опубліковано 27 чер 2024
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In this video, we look at the impact of lower incomes on birth rates in the United States.
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The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, but it's getting stronger compared to other currencies and things like gold and property. People are turning to the dollar because they think it's safer. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of high inflation. Where else can we keep our money?
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it's pretty insane that something so obvious is almost never pointed out by the mainstream, good on you for actually talking about the real problem
probubly because their being told not to by their rich bosses.
It’s because the mainstream has an agenda. When they tell the truth is circumstantial.
Not just mainstream media, other UA-camrs on economics don't cover it either.
@@UvstudioCaToronto UA-camrs who cover demographics often cover it's economic effects.
Probably because lowwr birth rates have been a trend over time throughout the last 50 years across nearly all nations. So it clearly has nothing to do with US income disparities at its core. Which deflates the entire central premise. This whole video is pretty trash to be honest...He's misattributing correlation and causation when it comes to declining real wages and declining birth rates. Sure there are lots of pretty graphics, but the content is garbage to anyone who understands economics and statistics.
This pretty much proves the fact we've never recovered after 2008 to this day. I've been saying that all along.
You and Peter Schiff It’s pretty obvious like 911 or Epstein
There has been nothing but stagnation since 2008, hidden by creative accounting.
Americans are facing a tough time with their finances, especially concerning housing affordability and retirement savings.
And with the fear of not being able to retire comfortably, people might be tempted to make risky investments or neglect proper financial planning, which could spell trouble for their portfolios in the long run
It's a vicious cycle. If people can't afford homes, they might delay retirement savings, but if they focus solely on saving for this. Economic instability, inflation, and market fluctuations can further complicate matters and add to people's financial worries
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out plan, especially considering the current state of the global economy.
Given the uncertainties, it might be wise to allocate a portion to safer options like bonds or fixed income securities
The problem is that people don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging condition
2008 is the year that the growth in the 20 year olds age group stopped. In other words, our population has grown, but only in old people, not in ultra productive twenty somethings.
This, I graduated from college that year. I'm almost 40 now. Everything my parents were able to do were just out of reach. I just kept working harder but I just couldn't make it.
I feel exhausted and used after almost two decades of false promises, bad advice, and lack of community. I'm just done
Immigration has increased the population especially in urban areas. Don’t think that will change soon, although migration should be limited and more exclusive to productive individuals, but that’s another topic…
@@veiga1000I started college but didn’t finish til sometime after and it was a community college. Since I felt I wasn’t going to be a college I decided to work full time while living with my parents and invest all excess of income in the stock market. Went through the 2008 crash, stopped putting in but just held it. Since then it’s 5 times the size, I continue saving since 2008-2009 and bought a house until 2014. Moved out at that time, was about 27-28. Parents helped a lot but since they saw economic growth they supported me.
I believe lots of people especially coming out of college lack education especially financial.
I only have my AA and have worked nearly 20 years have two properties.
I also do think the last 2-3 years are a lot tougher than the previous 10-15 years. From 2009 to 2019 it was probably the best year
2008 is also the year that smartphones and social media really started to take off. Social Media greatly diminished the intrinsic worth of the average female in the eyes of the average male, thereby giving him one more reason to choose to avoid household formation.
Graduated High School in 2005. Experienced 3 years of a robust Economy. Started working at my dream job, a computer store in 2008. By August I was laid off. Didn’t find a job until 2011. That period of unemployment set me back farther than realized. 2024 is a different beast. This is the most expensive living situation. Everything feels heavy.
Never letting the economy go down just makes a bigger bubble.
This is what some have been saying about the housing bubble. The government said in 2008 they were going to get housing back to where it was. Well where it was, was in a bubble so when you do that you're pushing us back into a bubble and this one is way worse than the last because of the compounding effect.
@@xvx4848The demographic populations have called for there to be more housing inventory available today and over the last few years than at the time of the housing bubble around 2008. There are more millennials than gen Xers. And millennials are now at the prime first time home buying age. Around the time that the housing bubble burst, it was gen X.
@@xvx4848housing prices have stayed flat. It's the dollar that's lost half its value
@@mg-by7uu It's housing purchase price vs pay.
@@mg-by7uueven if the dollar loses half it's value, if the average American isn't earning twice as much then they simply don't have the purchasing power to afford things.
The birth rate isn't 1.6%. It's 1.6 children per woman.
And older coworkers of mine was hired when he was 21. I was hired at this job when I was 21. The gap was 16 years between us getting hired and our starting pay was 75 cent apart
That's whack
Hasn’t stopped me from making babies tho
My starting wage in a maintenance department 2yrs ago was $16/hr, the same as my dad's starting wage in a maintenance department in the 1980s. Pay has only increased for managers, supervisors, and execs. I made about $38/hr 15yrs ago working on military bases ...
And $25/hr working with illegal mexicans sitting in front of home depot. Nothing makes sense. My employer don't even pay overtime, they say I am exempt ... so I worked 63hrs this week hard physical labor "straight-time".
I remember hearing when I was a kid that veteran mill workers at a Weyerhaeuser lumber mill on the Oregon coast were getting 40 thousand dollars per year. That was 40 years ago.
Mass immigration depresses wages. Supply and demand.
I was just about to type a comment about how a 20-year span isn't really representative of normal behavior when you transitioned into "Now, you might say 20 years isn't very long."
Masterful.
Gotcha!
Yeah. He did a great job on this video. I was going to point out in the comments that the birth rate declined when women entered the workforce so it's not representative and then he said it like two seconds later. Lol.
workers never really recovered from 2008. even a historically tight labor market isnt driving up wages fast enough to be meaningful. it's due to incomes being divorced from productivity growth. the business class captured our government and regulated away the ability of average people to compete for wage growth. things like non compete agreements, not enforcing anti trust laws, right to work states, at will firing etc have all been a contributing factor to employers simply not having to pay workers more.
First chart shows that's really not true.
A tight labor market doesn't help wages. 2022 labor shortage helped boost wages.
I heard there are some antitrust investigations into MSFT and NVDA.
I we figure something out. In my youth, I was too much of an anticapalist to take advantage of Nvidia.
That first chart only went back to 2009, it completely masks 2008 and the loss of real personal income since then. If the chart included the data from 2008 and before, the projection is actually $6T of real personal income and 24M jobs behind trend (inflation adjusted) @hooksx
Totally agree with you, thank you.
Rentier activity is the problem. Credit expansion is infinite, land / housing is finite, the former will expand until it saturates all disposable income to access the latter.
very concise way to put it.
This. Land and housing are the largest domestic sink for inflation. And all political will is behind continuing that inflation. The largest upward transfer of wealth in history.
Henry George is due for a comeback.
In other words, what happened in France a couple of hundred years ago is happening/has happened to us now...where's our Bastille though?
@@CaptainCaveman1170 Panem et circenses. Don't expect anything to change until people can't dull their senses with reality TV drivel and fast food slop.
Millennial here. Been saying this since I graduated in 2011. Kids were never even on my mind. Gas 4.25 a gallon. 4 year degree wages in the
What size lot is your house on? Lot size is the biggest factor in the decision to have children.
That’s a loser mentality. I’m a melwbial with multiple kids and 7 figure net worth. Paid my own way to college while starting a business, and then in to corporate America. Retired at 39. If you have a college degree and only make $22 an hour, you are the problem.
@@cardesigner But do you expect every one to be able to do that ?, life is a competition and your clearly won but society worth of the median.
@@cardesignerwell done. You out competed everyone. Evolution never stops. There are always winners and losers, the number of winners is a lot smaller.
@jimpaddy79 The biggest qualifier of whether or not someone succeeds lies in themselves and their mentality, to the point that it far exceeds extranalities like wealth, disability/health, location etc.
If I wanted to get married one day but thought that all gals today are loose, selfish, entitled, greedy. I might be right in some respect when constantly viewing media that reinforces this worldview. But it's a loser mentality that keeps me convinced that marriage is not actually what I want, that I shouldn't pursue gals because they are all the same. The same mentality that keeps people poor and in the herd of group think and self pity.
Thank you for covering this. My wife and I are choosing to never bring another soul into this world, and a big part of the reason why is exactly what you discussed here. We have absolutely worked our asses off, and we're doing quite well compared to most people, but it doesn't feel like its anything CLOSE to what it should be given the effort we've both put out. I can't imagine telling my children that they need to work as hard, or harder, and will likely make even less than we do... This country is doomed.
2008 was a pivot point where the toll from Private Equity impacts finally materialized. PE continues to strip the United States ability to produce income.
All of this is happening while United States continues to see records profits and revenue. GDP IS UP, UP, UP.
Right but the way inflation works, those numbers are fairly meaningless unless we adjust for inflation. It's like how every 1-2 years there is a new box office record for movies, because the price of movie tickets is always rising, but if you adjust for inflation, the Top Lifetime Adjusted Gross is 1939's Gone With The Wind. Most ticket sales and highest gross.
Now, that's kind of a gotcha answer since in those days movies were much rarer and movies stayed in theaters for years and years. But the 2nd highest in terms of tickets and gross is 1977's Star Wars (A New Hope) and 3rd is A Sound of Music (1965). The closest recent movie is The Force Awakens at #11. This is a good example of how statistics can lie to us unless we're careful.
Though you are right, studies have shown that only about half of inflation is actually inflation, and that corporations are making record profits by abusing pandemic era trends to somehow price gouge even after the crisis had ended and supply chains had recovered.
@@bryanleblanc5648 Don't forget the government can goose the GDP with creating new debt.
CEO pay is up over 3,000% since the 80's. Median worker pay? 15%. Enjoy.
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"The problem is old people". Remember, someday _you'll_ be "old" too, _if_ you're lucky. As for my relatives and myself, I hope we all live to be old.
“Too big to fail” The government’s actions to the financial crisis showed clearly that capital is more important than labor. Massive bailouts for the rich that took on risk but no massive public works projects to keep laborers employed. This killed the American dream and the consumer’s desire to work for it.
Yes! We are still paying for the GFC bailouts, and have added more to them since then. Not to mention the fed’s massive QE and especially their MBS purchases for no reason.
Well put. 👍
The stock market has also become detached from average Americans and real incomes. Even as valuations peak to record highs, the tech industry in particular is in a protracted phase of workforce liquidation. Finding paying skilled work is becoming hopeless for the average, or more appropriately median person.
Confidence in our system is a nebulous concept to measure but I think you are spot on for using the fertility rate as a general proxy to do so. The whole postwar neoliberal order underpinned by American military & economic leadership as well as global trading arrangements designed to maximize efficiency through each participant nation's comparative advantage seems to me to be coming apart rather rapidly at this point. It's all the more concerning considering that the problems of stagnant economic growth, decreasing rates of fertility, mental illness, drug abuse, war, technological displacement of people, political populism, inflation, debt and wealth inequality are all global in nature. We need to begin rethinking our whole notion of progress and how we measure that progress. I struggle to see how we can maintain confidence in the future when our current economic arrangement works only for an increasingly smaller number of people. Perhaps some catalyst will usher in the opportunity to hit the reset button and if not it will be a slow grind until life for some critical mass of people becomes so unbearable that change is forced from the bottom up somehow. I don't believe a top down, reform the system operating within the framework of said system can work; it is truly broken. We should begin to focus our attention on when and how it ends
The problem is worse than you think. By including dividend and rental income, you've skewed the average income upwards for the context of consumer confidence and fertility. The vast majority of pre-retirement households only receive income from hourly wages. If you re-did the graph at 6:00 to only include real wages the trend would be even steeper.
just one problem: it's about male income, not income in general. all the data show that women's fertility actually goes DOWN as their income goes up
No, because the vast majority of people producing children are in a relationship where both finances matter.
@@taukid421 I must reiterate that the data here is clear. You're in denial
@@taukid421 If you search "demo-economic paradox", there will be a bunch of research showing your mistake.
@@JointStock So if your right fertility is going down because women income is increasing, so shouldn't the graph show major wage growth then to match the decline in fertility.
This has been going on for a long time.
During and after the financial crisis in 2008 wages took a major downturn.
More basically, the high cost of medical, the high cost of child care and income inquality are driving low birth rates.
Strong countries depend on birthrate. You might be a conservative person or a wealthy person and blame a lot of this on the poor or on some other thing, and have a lot of criticisms about this video. But its important to keep in mind that if the United States is to continue being a global super power then we need to fix this birth rate problem. So many countries around the world, especially China and the Western European nations are facing terrible demographic issues and face demographic collapse due to this same issue of lack of birthrate. We need people feeling secure enough in their jobs and in their housing and in their income to decide to have kids, period. If we don't this country as we know it will collapse.
A side effect of low birthrate is higher immigration as the State tries to fix its own demographic issues, see Canada for a great example. Mass immigration causes a whole new set of problems so if you are a conservative person who dislikes immigration then consider that. Higher wages = more birthrate = less immigration. The question basically boils down to two possibilities, since it is a given that a State will try to keep itself alive. Would you rather the State be populated via mass immigration or would you rather support policies that increase wages and home ownership?
Higher wages will increase the birth rate, but the birth rate decline will still outpace whatever mitigation higher wages will provide. This is reflected in European/Scandinavian countries with greater wealth generation/less inequality yet still similarly declining birthrate. A bigger correlation appears to be that the the more educated a country's population is, the less likely they are to repopulate.
Saving this!
At some point we’re gonna have to admit that 2008 began a New Depression, as the growth of the real economy never returned to baseline and remains depressed. This must wholly rearrange our thinking of the economy, as each previous depression required a fundamental change in how capitalism worked in order to pull out of it.
Unfortunately, tech and finance and stock returns have been high enough to paper over this rather obvious truth and so no fundamental change seems to be on the horizon. We have many more years of gradual decline to look forward to I imagine.
(Not to mention that the USA runs the entire world’s financial system, it’s better here than most everywhere else so imagine the New Depression being faced by the billions across the world. China is, as usual since 2008, an exception that proves the rule)
Firstly, we need an independent analysis of the real impacts of a falling birth-rate. There are many reasons why people are choosing to have fewer children. It is worth noting that even in past times of high unemployment. low wages, and wars, families could and often did have more than two children. My own great grand parents had 12 children, their children had 5, subsequently they in turn had two or less children, one of which is me and I have no children. Since the latter children have not had issues finding work and have enough money for houses, cars, holidays, and meals out, then clearly financial worries are not the main reason. I think the reason in the west for the declining birth rate is cultural changes. Children are viewed as inconveniences as the society we have built is not child friendly. There are few places for children to play safely, child care for working parents is hard to find, both parents want to work and have independence, marriages are not for life, schools are over crowded and not deemed 100% safe, getting to and from school can be hazardous. As they grow up children are under enormous pressure to achieve academically, this strains family relationships, advertising and social media do not promote family life and it's benefits. And so on... it's not just about money.
Almost all of what you said are consequences of real income not keeping up. Also, during your great grandparents time, children could work a part time job.
@natevanderw Indeed, I do not deny the impact of income, and I would add that great grandparents had multiple jobs at the same time to make ends meet and afford children. But they were also frugal. They grew their own vegetables, raised chickens in the back garden, and the community was supporting and would help with child minding forexample. Kids played in the streets. They did not need games consoles. There was very little vehicle traffic, and the police were on every street corner and knew the community. A family would have a doctor for life who may well have delivered the kids.
During war time, rationing taught people and kids to not waste a thing. Obesity and the illnesses associated with it were rare. There was no fast food, and most items were organic. Packaging was rare, perhaps some paper wrap.
Kids got hand-me-downs for clothes, so large families would eek out every last thread and use patches, darn socks, resoled shoes, and looked after their cloths. Things were mended, often made from wood, and shared. I.e. not thrown in a landfill. So, the cost of living was lower by design and necessity. Therefore, larger numbers of children in a household could be raised. We live in different times that are more expensive because retail manufacturers and the economy require us to buy new things and throw good stuff away.
@@grumblewoof4721 what's the point of so-called raising so many children if in order to do so, lifestyle becomes so austere. There's a true catch-22 in that argument, from where I sit. I'm not being facetious, what's the point of low "per capita" cost of living, if that life is sh!t?
Money is one thing. Culture is another thing. No women today are worth having kids with. You’ll just end up divorced and broke. Not even will smith could keep his wife from getting clapped
It would be interesting to see this analysis done with other countries given nearly all of the developed world (and even some of the developing world - e.g., Latin America) is experiencing this phenomenon. Seems like the underlying causes of declining birth rates is a confluence of economic, cultural, and social factors. It’s impossible to pinpoint a single causable metric, but, surely, anticipated economic standing plays a role. Well done!
I agree. It would be interesting to see how this factors against what others suggest as the cause. Our World In Data says,
There are three major reasons for the rapid decline in the global fertility rate:
the empowerment of women - increased access to education and increased labor market participation
declining rates of child mortality
rising costs of bringing up children, with the decline of child labor
@@Natethesandman1 also population density
The figures for the UK follow are very similar pattern, but are even worse
The first collapse in the 1960s looks more like a trigger than anything happening now. America just had a bubble economy that artificially increase births from ~1.7 to ~2. Then bubble popped and we’re back to the lows of the 1960 crash of ~1.7.
If you look at things like government tax ROI split by gender or student debt by gender. Dollars spent getting women to the workforce is a net loss once they retire and get on government support. You’re sacrificing long term population sustainability and productivity for a short term boost. The structure was never sustainable.
Saving this
The data showed the lion's share of birth rate decrease came from women entering the workforce. I'd argue the pay and support systems would have to be astronomical to overcome that factor to where we'd return to 1960s levels.
Yep. Women should not work if you want high birthrates. If you allow them into the workforce. Two things happen the first is reduction on wages and the second is a higher entry to breeding due to raised standards.
Real personal income is nearly double what it was in the 1960s
The 1960's was also when birth control first became available
Exactly! There are many many reasons why the birthrate has declined. Thank you for pointing out one more. This video is complete trash.
@@michaeldunphy796 Sticky wages trail other prices. It took years for the increased supply of labor to makes its way into lower salaries.
2008 really DID break the system and it's been artificially propped up ever since
You should see the same charts for real income vs inflation or GDP. they capture the story even better in my opinion (especially the breakout in 1973). When we have recessions, power shifts from employees to employers and that basically never comes back result in lesser and lesser salary growths over all the following years - even if the economy comes back up.
This is a great quality video, and interesting information, thanks man.
We have a record number of people retiring. This means more people consuming but not producing. That trend alone is inflationary. More people chasing fewer goods.
If the Fed engages in QE again, like on the scale they have in the past 15 years, yes that scenario would be very inflationary.
This is partially true. The consumer preferences also change.
The average income trend is one factor. But the income distribution also contains a width, a asymmetry as well as tails. And these factors are possibly more relevant. The width can be related to the Gini coefficient, the change in ratio of the median income VS the average income, etc. Failure to account for more aspects of the income distribution than just the average will give a very skewed perspective.
The bottom of the curve is having the most kids.
That’s putting the cart before the horse. Even if “fairly” distributed there isn’t enough actual productive activity to go around. This is because they didn’t let the bottom fall out of housing and they rewarded it ownership not production. They need to let housing prices collapse and capital will fly to better investment for workers.
While the economics certainly don't help, I think it's a cultural issue more than an economic one.
People in living 100+ years ago were poorer than we are now, yet still had large families. It wasn't all modern birth control either: the TFR dropped smoothly from 5 in 1860 to 2.4 in 1940, with relatively small jogs during the Roaring 20s and Great Depression.
Far too many people (myself included) have inadvertently prioritized other things over being parents, and let themselves get old enough that it's far more difficult.
Really tired of this lame narrative being paraded around. It's not cultural. Not in any significant way. People didn't suddenly say "nah I don't want kids" in a vacuum.
Our ancestors reproduced more even though they could expect fewer material gains, but back in those days the housing was either affordable or the land was not bought up and occupied so you could just start building your own little mud hut if you were poor without worrying about zoning laws. And your children could be born in your mud hut and, with lucky genetics and hard work, have a reasonable shot at making a living wage. It seems that in the future, if you want your children to compete in the labor pool, they will need private schooling, constant attention to help them develop skills related to prefrontal cortex formation, they will need to have an investment account started so they might be able to afford a car to start off with, etc. The cost of simply having a house and being considered an actual member of this society has gotten so astronomically large that people who make less than 100k a year are saying "that's a wrap, I guess my society has no need for me" and they are peacefully leaving the gene pool.
@@travisbplank Be tired. Ignore the fact that the *lowest-quintile* household income group in the US in 2022 earned slightly more (inflation adjusted) than the *average* household in 1916 (when households had far more people).
Tell people, "The birthrate decline is all economics. Average couples today just can't afford kids on 4.5 times the inflation-adjusted household income from 100 years ago. There's no need to change your sub-culture. Keep watching the advertisements. Keep grinding for the corporations. *Definitely* keep buying their stuff."
Life has always been hard. Giving up is lame, and the people whose great grandchildren will venture out into the stars won't be the ones who dismiss the possibility that they're capable of improving their sub-culture to get through this evolutionary bottleneck.
@@AlecMuller Exactly, fertility rate is inversely proportional to income, the demo-economic paradox.
@AlecMuller Blah blah blah, claims with no sources, we're going to the stars bro trust me. Same techno-optimist horseshit over and over again. None of you have anything meaningful to say. Just wanton ego stroking imagining that your little swimmers are going to grow up masters of the Universe and not slaves or sterilized once they have outlived their usefulness. And I know they're not toing to be too bright sonce youre comparing household income in the early 1900s (single income) to household income in the 2020s (two earners) and imagine youve made some point about how life is easier now or some other crap. Your descendants will visit the stars in the same way that the washing machine allowed for more free time for American families and AI will free us all to work in fields that suit our passions more.
@@AlecMuller But you could us children as labor in 1916 so in many ways they were an assets, also if you children in the materiel conditions many did in 1916 they would be taken off you by social services today, so it not a like for like comparison
I find it depressingly par for the course that the government refuses to acknowledge the economic realities post 2008 that this video highlights. Our country never recovered. The financial stability and long term returns from the private sector, jobs, and wage growth for the average consumer just collapsed and never recovered to its pre 2008 levels. Why on earth would me and most millenials want to pop out any damn kids when we can’t even buy homes, and it took most of us a decade just to break into our careers because of how shitty the post 2008 job prospects looked as a new graduate looking to start our careers
It's been going on since the 80s, you just might not be old enough to have witnessed it. I recognized the game was rigged and slid my bets in on the side of the people doing the rigging. Retired a decade to enjoy the semi-ill-gotten gains.
you are amazing as usual thank you!
cpi above trend and incomes below trend... who would've thought this would make relationships and children unsustainable
really good video. thanks for sharing
Great to see your new work. Thanks!
Thanks Eric. Love your work.
If you run a liner regression these charts look very different. What is the argument for non linear regr?
Thank you and feel better sir
Awesome vid!
wow i would really love a comparison between private sector income growth and overall economic growth, people might notice where the money went
So, if stocks are up and income is down, does that indicate an increased wealth concentration?
No it reiterates stocks are propped up by a house of cards and debt massive debt
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Great video! Couple questions though:
1) you make an assumption here that consumers expect their real income to increase by 2.8% every year. Do consumers actually expect their real income to grow? Most polls I’ve seen suggest people feel more like they’re falling behind where they were 5 years ago, not that they are falling behind where they expected to be today.
2) I’m surprised you jumped to the conclusion that debt was solely responsible for the drop in real income. To me there are some other potential causes (eg. Automation, Boomers retiring) that would cause real private income to not increase as quickly anymore
(1) I would assume most people expect their income to increase over there career, I mean you hardily expect the same wage for you first week work as you would for last week be fore retiring.
@@jimpaddy79 agreed, but the video was quoting the growth in average real income. So it should average out any income growth you would expect by getting older/more experienced. In other words, the statistic doesnt say anything about one persons income, just that the average income across all age groups is increasing with time.
@@awsomeishchild but doesn’t the average capture that already as its an average of different ages
@@jimpaddy79 hm, not sure I understand what your question is exactly - care to elaborate? The average will include a cycle of people (new people entering the workforce at the start of their career, and leaving as they retire), so it isn’t always the same population that is being surveyed.
Correlation doesn't equal causation. There's a lot of other factors contributing to lower birth rates, such as the reduction in overall dating and the way apps have distorted the dating market.
Since the 1980's 90% of America's wealth gain has gone to the 1%. If you feel you've been shafted, I recommend both Preparation H and voting better.
Great video and information. As a visual learner, you made a great job talking about something is not really talked about much in main stream media. However, it would have been nice to see a comparison with corporate profits . Lack of unions and policies only for the rich have definitely influenced this trend too.
I wonder what the gap was in other places when civil wars / revolutions have ignited.
There are a number of metrics such as the wealth gap that have far, far and away exceeded any levels seen in history before a society tore itself apart.
@@dancox3251 Yeah, I would suspect that America's ability to 'bear' economic inequality is quite high on account of modern policing and social attitudes about property rights and security. There are also offsetting effects like modern amenities--it's hard to feel as much urgency to take broad action/protest/revolt when you have infinite access to dopamine through digital content. Historically, you would have felt the effects of hard times all day every day.
the gaps tend to get pretty extreme right before some form of revolt. we dont have records of most societies but those we do have records of (roman revolutions, french revolution, etc) it does tend follow similar patterns to each other. the society urbanizes and wealth becomes concentrated. that wealth is used to buy political power and through that transfer the political institutions lose their utility and seize up, becoming non functional. at that point it usually takes some form of a crisis to ignite a real revolt, as people are pretty hesitant to overthrow a system (we're all conservatives for the most part). essentially the organs of the state become coopted by the wealthy as wealth concentrates, and those state organs seize up and become useless, making it an easy decision for people to abandon these institutions.
@@chasebrower7816 To expand on your point : if you start from a higher point, there is more height from which to fall. When the historical average is something like 95% of the population living in abject poverty and living through actual starvation, revolts tend to be much easier to push. If inequality means you are living in a crappy apartment on a full belly but someone else possesses 8 yachts, 5 helicopters and 3 jets and is eating caviar every day, then there is still comfort in knowing you could be starving. If someone is living in a castle with a fancy roast beef all day and you live in a dilapidated 1700s house with no food for 5 days, then it doesn't take much more than a couple more days for famine to hit you into revolting because there isn't much lower to fall from and actually die from. It's death by revolt or death by starvation basically.
That is the point where the wealth is extremely concentrated that most of the population dont have much left to loose.
So, much of the wealth is owned by older people, held in real estate, equities, and bonds. The coming recession should reset some of this imbalance, especially in real estate - A reset would be good, and it’s likely to happen.
Is birth rate a good indicator of households confidence? Consider Singapore for instance...
Note the 2008 trend line also mirrors boomer retirement, as the olderest boomers started retiring in 2008. That said. I suspect a lot of boomers are no going have to go back into the workforce as rising living costs are exceeding their ability to make payments from entitlements & savings.
Another factor is Obamacare which Ins. premiums are forcing many companies to switch full time workers to part time to avoid having to pay the huge ins. costs. So people are working multiple part time jobs instead of one full time job, but each part time job is still counted in the gov't jobs data reports. Usually the part time jobs also pay less, & workers are forced to pay health care ins out of pocket or do without it.
The US heading for hyper inflation, either by the late 2020s or early 2030:
1. US debt tops $100T (Gov't + corp + consumer) about 375% of US GDP. There is no possiblity of paying it down.
2. Gutted US economy, which inflation & gov't regulation is accelerating as companies are deperate to cut costs. The US really only has low wage service jobs left
3. Legalized shop lifting has closed a lot of retail stores. Companies dealing with theft & increased security costs must raise prices
4. Global effort to de-dollarize as the US has weaponized the Dollar. All of the developing world nations are joining BRICS to avoid ongoing, pending, or future US sanctions. Many Central banks are selling off US debt. either to stabilizing their own currencies (Japan), or concerned about account freezing (China).
5. Huge Bailouts pending when the Commerical real estate crisis unfolds (probably in the next 6 to 12 months). Fed is going to need to print trillions to bailout banks & other lenders as the defaults start to pile up. Un occupied buildings pay no revenue to service loans.
Saving this
Are there any relationships with trade (China entering WTO, NAFTA, etc...)? They were supposed to help keep costs low? Was the effect to the CPI marginal relative to wages? Edit: Also that was a great video!
Hot damn those charts look bad. I knew things were bad but wow.
So every time money was pumped- people got poorer. I guess that free money wasn’t really free. But some people surly benefited
The is a British economist Gray Steven likes to say if the Government gives an average $1000 and a rich person $1,000,000 the average person has not gained anything, in fact there now poorer.
Free shit isnt free
I've said this before, but we never really recovered from the 2008 recession. No one really reconciled with the huge debt acquired during that time. Rather than deal with bankruptcies due to the unsustainable debt, the debt was shuffled around in what amounted to financial trickery. Because we never dealt with the short term pain of bankruptcy, we never were able to get a real recovery. As long as the 2008 debt remains in the economy, we'll never return to the previous economic growth levels.
Also, keep in mind that the previous economic growth is likely never coming back, unless we end up in a great depression type situation. There's no way to get those lost years back unless a huge inventory of homes suddenly enter the market at an incredibly low price, which can only happen if enough businesses end up bankrupt that the market completely capitulates and crashes more than ~50%.
What is the Impact? A train of single women over 36 with no partner or children... but they are career oriented.
It’s not just the women. It’s worse in many places.
Some perspective. We only had a billion people in the early 19th century.
The real problem is old people.
@@NotShowingOff That problem will solve itself.
@@NotShowingOffNo, the problem is young people, see how easy that was?
My parents are in their 80s and my grandparents lived into their 80s and 90s.
@@jimmiller5600Perhaps, over the course of a century or two, lol!
@@jerryrichardson2799 Check the Japanese, Russian and Chinese demographic curvess. By 2050 it's gonna get ugly.
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.
It's a good idea to seek advice at the moment, unless you're an expert yourself. As someone who runs a service business and sells products on eBay, I can tell you that the economy is struggling and many people are struggling financially.
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How can I reach this advisers of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?
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She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.
I was a stay at Home mom with no money in my IRA or any savings of my own, which was scary at 53 years of age. Three years ago I got a part time job and save everything I make. After 3 years, I am 56 yo and have put $9,000 in an IRA and $40,000 in my portfolio with CFA, Abby Joseph Cohen. Since the goal of getting a job was to invest for retirement and NOT up my lifestyle, I was able to scale this quickly to $150,000. If I can do this in a year, anyone can.
I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Abby Joseph Cohen. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
I hope she gets more of the recognition she deserves.
I could really use some help here, as a meagre salary earner I need to try and earn more passive income
How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
@@KemmerlingKrebsbach
Well her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Did you show what the transfer payments were. I bet it was close to what the private sector wage losses were.
In Alberta (Canada), the wage for a journeyman electrician in 2024 is slightly lower in nominal terms than it was in 2018. Once you factor inflation into the mix, this means real wages are down about 30%. Gee I wonder why nobody is having kids.
Great explanation. I wish politicians understood this. Or cared about it.
The Silent Depression.
Great video.
I'd add that most other OECD countries are also in the same pattern.
Transfer payments, sounds like a great idea, with the best intentions. What could possibly go wrong?
The same could be said about bailouts and corporate tax cuts
@@666pssAnd yet, they never bring that up. They cry about student loan forgiveness but say nothing about the ppp loan forgiveness. They simply don't like giving money to anyone except the wealthy.
@@666pssYou see, corporate handouts are good, handouts to poor people are bad. Why? Poorer people are more likely to be brown, obviously!!!
@@666pss Yeah, what about paying fair wages and benefits? These have stagnated in America since the late 80s and nineties.
@@tellsparckblame the fed
Great video as usual. Great graphics, explained thoroughly. One small bone: financial security does not prefigure household formation. Family and household formation finds its genesis in the divine love shared between man and woman. This is not a rational, emprical, nor statistical computation one makes prior to having children. The stories of the Puritans and Pilgrims who first settled America had as much to lose as any population in human history. But their hope lay in faith. We have a spiritual crisis that is described perfectly in the argument to not raise kids when "the future" looks bleak. Its an impotence saturated with pessimism, and it wreaks of fear and insecurity. God is with you.
Faith is fantasy, it's a tool of manipulation, like manifest destiny or the people traveling west for gold. You believe things will work out to your benefit. The reality is you get sick, go broke family dies of disease ect. Survivorship bias, you don't hear from the ones who don't make it. As conscious beings we can logically assess these things and say, nah not worth the risk. If you want to stoke the fires go right ahead, but it will not change the fact you are lying to yourself.
Saving this
I learn so much from your videos. I also appreciate simple yet high quality animation.
Glad you like them!
the pill came on the market in 1960. Reading the comments for lack of children but just comes down to an attitude. Our beliefs today create our future. Elect people who have a positive message and people follow
Let's see what's wrong, the price of EVERYTHING goes up, the price of homes are up over 200-300% in just 4 years, and day care basically costs more than a lot of mortgages do, having a baby is more expensive than it's ever been. Is it a surprise or are the politicians really that out of touch with the public?
Also, apparently if you let your 14-year-old watch your kids while you work, you'll go to jail. There's a story about that going around right now. So you have to pay the $16 grand a year for daycare or they will take your kids away and put you in jail for neglect.
The graphs already account for this. Childcare is mostly the salary of paying someone to watch a kid. Childcare costs are basically another way to measure pay raises.
@FreedomTalkMedia good. Any parent that turns their child into a young parent deserves jail time.
You assumed 2% year trend, but it would look a little bit different for e.g 1.5%
The birth rate conversion seems off to me. The US population had the large baby boom generation and I think the trend is a byproduct of that generation going into and coming out of primary birthing years.
Now do the charts with debt/interest paid today versus 50 years ago. Spoiler, its A LOT worse
I'm pretty sure I will never have a child and most of the girlfriends I've had expressed a similar sentiment - one child at most. None of us want to bring a child into a life of declining economic stability if we have the choice.
Excellent video. It would be interesting to see a graph of average working adults per household over time and how that correlates to birth rates. Especially if data exists on average working adults per household for the 20-40 year old demographic. Most young people are foced to have both parents working to get by. And childcare is 2k per month per child in my area which is unaffordable. Personally, i would not have been able to afford having my two daughters without childcare help from grandparents.
Walmart ceo: when i first started out in the early 80's i was unloading trucks for $6 an hour!
Me:.....but....but thats $19 an hour in todays money.... you're telling me that in 40 years all we got was two fucking dollars?
Walmart ceo: well we dont really have the money for major raises
Me: you just had a shareholders event with lizzo, usher, and the backstreet boys....we got lizzo money but we aint got cody needs some new shoes money? What a load of shit.
It would appear that at least the USA is becoming more Darwinian by the year. Survival of the fittest in the wealthiest country of the world where a small number become incredibly well off and the majority are left to serve.
Luckily I very much plan to be among the few very wealthy, but this is certainly a failure.
A very complex failure though. There are massive benefits to a risk reward system which guarantees nothing but allows for anything.
Great for pioneering, not so great for just living a chill meaningful life. Cut throat really
What's sad is that the solution is very simple. The government needs to care about the employee in whatever way it could. Raise minimum wages, protect unions, ensure good healthcare etc
The corporations will do whatever they need to in order to make money and they will succeed. But in our reality we are begging corporations themselves to NOT make record profits and instead pay employees a high wage.
What do you think they are going to choose to do?
@@Kuzyapso this would probably help mitigate a lot of suffering while simultaneously plummeting any growth into stagnation, much how Europe is nowhere near as powerful or influential as they once were, but are generally happier it seems for most countries.
The usa is already on this path without the societal benefits as chinas power rises. That's the problem, you become better for the people and then a worse government that isn't rises to power and you hope they dont screw the rest of the world.
much of the rest of the world does not like what the USA has done to them, how would we feel if china imposed their policies over us?
Saving this
rental income is not income, it's another consumers rent burden crisis
Exactly, passive income is really just exploiting someone else for a profit
Americans are not feeling downbeat about their income expectations. They are however feeling very disappointed they will not be billionaires. And if you can’t be a billionaire, what’s the point of living or having children?
Declining birth rate? Laughs in South Korean
SK has similar if not exactly the same cause for said low birth rates.
It's their women's attitude, coupled with their financial prosperity
and why are you looking at averages? inequality has increased massively since the 70s. whatever gains existed increasingly go to the top. if you average a million dollar salary with 10 10k salaries, you get 110k a year. if that million dollar salary doubles, while the rest stay the same, you will get an income gain of 110k -> 210k but that is a very misleading way of looking at it, especially if you are looking at birth rates per woman.
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The bubble is becomes bigger and bigger as the stock market reaches ATH day after day.
The birth rate is affected by many other factors. Nigeria has terrible income growth after inflation and high birth rate
My fave video of yours so far, great job
The only American who won't acknowledge this Administration's failed economic policies is Joe Biden. "Shrink-flation' is the least of our worries compared to rising rents and stagnant wages, but it is an undeniable indicator of how bad our inflation has gotten. I have $100k that i like to invest in a non-retirement account, any advice on that?
I would avoid index funds, mutual funds, and specific stocks for the time being. Right now, the best option is a fixed income of five percent. Put money aside for the times when the market really starts to bounce back.
I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I don't understand why real private income would grow in general. Is this reflecting the efficiency of the private sector to generate income from outside the US?
Wouldn't real income genreally be expected to remain flat over time (e.g. that is most of what inflation is capturing)?
There should be increases in productivity so the standard of living rises, not remains flat.
This might be easier to understand with an anecdote. If a carpenter switches from a hammer to nail gun, they can build more homes in the same amount of time. The trend in history has been more stuff with less work. The people in the same social circle switched to use nail guns first. This caused a split along demographics between hammer users and nail gun users. Only the demographic group who had jobs using nail guns got real income growth. You can see this nationally by dividing the population into income quartiles. The top quartile has nice gains. The median has slight gains. The bottom has negative.
Gen - X here. Most of my friends never really recovered economically from the 2008 crisis.
In fact, I am in a much worst position now than before the 2008 crisis.
I don’t agree that the gap shown from trend lines here explains the change in birth rates. There is somewhat of a correlation, but causation is not proven, or really even demonstrated. In China, wealth has increased dramatically at the same time that birth rates have fallen dramatically.
You do known China had the one child policy right?
@@jimpaddy79 Yes, but that is immaterial.
@@christianlibertarian5488 How is it immaterial, it’s the primary reason. So your say that the fact the Government limited couples to one child is immaterial to the number of children couples are having?
@@jimpaddy79 No, the one child policy is not the primary reason for the demographic change in China. The primary reason is the dramatic shift of the population from rural to urban living. This is the factor that has affected the entire world. The one child policy certainly pushed it along, but not the primary reason.
@@christianlibertarian5488 if you had said that about any other country in the world I would have agreed with you, but claiming the one child policy is not the primary driver of Chinese population demographics is just ridiculous.
Dam*...nailed it bro
when you can't raise taxes for obvious political reasons, nor can you implement austerity measures, nor it is sustainable to finance growth through credit (China stops buying T-bonds, Japan is selling T-bonds, T-bond returns are a bad joke) then you resort to reducing the buying power of the currency. If all currencies move together and asset prices have been inflated anyway, then the rich didn't pay anything (corporate returns were actually a lot higher than the average of recent decades) then the masses were forced to pay a large sum of implicit tax... This is what is being described in this graph. While these policies might increase decent or the strengthening of radical movements, well implemented state oppression measures through police, secret services and paramilitary organization can actually solidify the power of ruling elites.
In short modern democracies are controlled by corporate elites governing through economic rather than social policies.
An interesting dissection of real income gains over the last few decades, but I find data here linking private income rates to fertility rates a huge leap that doesn't seem justified. Globally, birth rates seem to decline almost in lock step with income rate gains. In fact, if you look at income rates in the U.S. the higher up you go the lower the birth rate.
Having kids isn't worthwhile since you can always import workers to run the economy from poorer nations. As long as you have saved enough for retirement you will be taken care of, additionally your own children won't be able to look after you despite their best efforts unless you have set them up for success either by having them graduate debt free or give them a hefty DP for a home.
Its only gonna get harder to go uphill from here on since the people in charge of fiat are printing for political points. Using debt to service unnecessary programs to win elections instead of focusing on investing debt in productive efforts is not a good idea, the system will fail under its own weight. For every $1 of debt created we need more than $1 + interest in income, else we are heading for the edge of the waterfall.
20 yrs isn't a long time?? That's like half your working life, 1/3rd of your heart beats. Way way longer than college and the time usually taken to prep for the work force too, which basically affects your entire life.
Excellent video, you know how to provide and explain the data in simple charts
The system is working properly. Society is shaped in a way to guide evolution with purpose.
I’m wondering if some people stopped working as hard which reduced their income. These people were expecting the government to give them income they could have earned if they worked more.
No, that doesn't make sense how would some one do even that, they only go into there job 4 days a week and then call the Government to pay them for Friday.