I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can .buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who were forced to witness the 2008 financial crisis could expect to generate a large wage.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
Just trying to help you out here, but playback your own video and listen to the quality of the audio. It echo’s really bad and makes listening to your content difficult.
Subbed. Econ. here; Air BnB, large increase in mom/pop 2-3 investment home owners, FOMO and CrAZy low rates for since the Financial crisis then Pandemic response which brings us to the irresponsible Bank lending policies- how could they know rates would rise?😅
Fortunately, my spouse and I were able to pay off our mortgage early. While we were both still employed, we took the money we had been using to accelerate our mortgage repayment and invested it immediately. Thanks to nearly 7 years of saving what would have been our mortgage payment and to maxing out our 401K/403B plans, we were able to retire early. Fortunately, both of our parents instilled in us the need of living within our means.
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
They are exempt from qualified mortgage requirements. Bond financing has the added benefit of interest only financing. It is anything but a balanced market. Corporate landlords compete among themselves at their price equilibrium while higher prices lock out the qualified mortgage buyers. Low inventories and low interest rates made it all possible. An asset bubble like no other.
The housing market didn't care about the flu.. it cared about extremely low rates. The 10 year UST hit a low of 0.53%- that's $5,300 in annual yield on a 1M dollar bond investment. The longterm average on the 10 year is 5.83% or over $58,000 on 1M. Of course investors looked for alternatives. Two 500K rental homes could gross you 60K a year and net you 20K a year and the underlying asset was appreciating by 10%+ YoY. And people are shocked this happened lol.. Artificially low rates have consequences. You witnessed the first pandemic in human history when RE prices went UP! (usually people dying en masse is bearish considering dead people don't need a house).
Did this guy really just blame low housing inventory trends since ‘08 on millennials?!? What a horrible take… guess what started in ‘08? AirBnB and the start of investors buying up and hoarding residential housing.
Logan, in the “Housing Market” section basically said he doesn’t know where the market will go and is looking at the data week to week. Logan is not alone, we are in uncharted territory with this economy and most economists have been wrong. Of course if you scream recession every month and/or years you’ll eventually be right.
we're always in uncharted territory when industry "experts" are talking, its the ultimate disclaimer for giving ridiculous OPINIONS. It's rare when theyre actually honest and tell you most realtors do "off-listing" or "pocket" deals to keep the MLS from being flooded. They bank on people being ignorant of true supply....and they do it by talk literally as fast as possible
Soooooo, outside of some extreme edge cases, there's no real hope of home prices correcting and the joys of California have been brought to the entirety of the country? How depressing but can't argue with the data.
Patience. Half of today's homeowners will be dead in 10 years. Plenty of supply in the pipeline. You will be able to buy a 1980s McMansion cheap and convert it into a multiplex rental property.
A Recession changes everything, he claimed that in the past recession prior to 2008’s recession, housing did well because the Fed dropped rates and then buying continued keeping prices stable. What he forgot to mention was that during that time, national savings was about 14% and hardly any credit card debt. Now? National savings levels are at 3.8% and historically high credit card debt, if we have a recession which is looking unavoidable, home prices more than likely will drop..
Inflation Crisis. Days on Market for resales are high. Builders are giving crazy incentives to close homes and push prices higher. Resales are struggling now. This is peak season and it feels more like fall. This is not good. Builders will run out of loan money in 2025.
Prices up massively in colorado for anything west of I-25. Don’t know when it will end. People moving from Florida and Texas buying first day looking at property. It’s still insane here. Boulder county average1.5 million for a 1980s dump
Commercial space is in trouble. The pain will come from corporate debt rollover and Ai bubble. There's so many competing narratives... fudging of the numbers, all the revisions... it's like something is being delayed or someone is getting squeezed!
Amazing information and analysis, so many variables were mentioned and discussed, this interview was long and detailed reflecting how complex market trends are. For the same reasons no one can say for sure what's going to happen next and how economy and home prices will behave in the furute. Thanks for great interview.
I think this was orchestrated by the gov. Why was real estate considered essential when there was a pandemic why didn’t the gov intervene with the craziness that was going on sooner. Who does it benefit most to have high prices? Higher property taxes perhaps to regain what was given during the pandemic? Just some thoughts? There might be a correction but a crash i doubt.
People who bla bla orchestra by the government mostly are very dumb and poor. And its connected. And mostly you dont know how things work. And the lack of your knowledge gets transformed into distrust.
amazing,physochollogy,nobody claims on insurance for 10yrs insurance companies make millions,suddenly there is a hurricane and insurance goes up ,why,nobody questions
People are going into massive debt buying homes cause someone is telling them it’s an investment. It’s pretty sad when they start to realize it’s a liability.
Despite the fact that I invest, I am frustrated by my incapacity to assess each company's performance and determine whether or not this is the best time to buy stocks. Inflation is depleting my monetary reserves. I need reliable market trajectory data at this point, but I'm not sure what to do.
There are numerous opportunities to produce substantial gains, particularly in this poor market, but such sophisticated transactions can only be carried out by seasoned market professionals.
I agree that there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can Logan preach about the importance of real home prices but then be bullish on housing with inflation adjusted home prices at record highs? Seems choosey with data.
Prices in AZ have been insane. We were renting a 1400+sqft house in a beautiful area outside of tucson in 2016 for less than $1200/mo. I was looking at zillow thinking, "Man, if I could afford $2000/mo, we could live in a mansion right down the road from here." Now in 2024, we were paying for a slightly bigger home in a much worse area in Phoenix for $2200... Our landlords tried to raise rent on us to $2400, so we moved to a bigger, nicer house in a better area for the same price instead.
Your wasting your money on rent. If you can afford $2,400, why didn't you buy a house years ago? That would have gotten you a beautiful large house, and have 100K-200k in equity
@@threeftr3349they absolutely are not wasting their money. They are paying more in rent to avoid financial ruin by buying a house at the top of the market that will also need expensive maintenance repairs and unaffordable insurance. You are a troll and probably invested in real estate.
why can't real estate people just make a point, and then explain it, and then shut the hell up. This is as annoying as talking to someone about buying a house or a car, and they can't shut up. Make your point, shut up
Cities need more multi family housing supply to better absorb shocks in the housing market. Mainly single family home markets are too land inefficient to have the supply for population influxes.
As I approach retirement, I'd like to relocate from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but real estate costs are absurdly high, and mortgage rates have been steadily rising (now over 7%). Shall I simply put my extra money into stocks and wait for the housing market to crash, or should I purchase a house now?
You should critically examine the company you plan to purchase because the stock market will continue to decline. Better still, consider working with an investing advisor to reorganize your entire portfolio and reduce the problematic investments you now own. This method has shown to be highly effective for me in reducing stress and anxiety while also saving a significant amount of time.
Since the current market is not for the faint of heart, I have been thinking about hiring an advisor. However, do these advisors actually alter a portfolio significantly, or am I better off doing it myself?
The housing market will not crash nationally. 2008 made international investors question the security of their investments in the US lead financial markets. The massive government intervention we've seen since then will keep that from happening again anytime soon., you can see that in the response to 2020- Blackrock etc came in and started buying after meeting with Mnuchin..Theyve only strenghthened the government integration with private finance since then. One thing they miss here is government subsidies for construction Solar credits installing energy efficient appliances, heating, cooling etc. You can bet that these types of subsidies will go up if jobs start to come down. If you need a crash to afford anything then you'll need to go against the tide and move in after a hurricane or fire but you'll need to do your homework in advance so you don't buy a liability fire= toxic cleanup (Maui) etc.
@@shioq. The housing bubble began so much earlier than that. I think people were already lulled into a false sense of security, COVID just made it all that much worse.
Even if this is true, most people don’t get paid in gold but in fiat currency. The main income source for most people is also the salary from the job which is paid out in fiat currencies. Salaries didn’t increase as fast as house prices or gold prices. For the average person this is what matters.
It cracks me up when everybody asks. "Why is employment so strong" when they know the numbers are fake. They revise those numbers down every time they release them.
Amazing conversation. At 1:04:45 Logan mentions that some commercial real estate loans are maturing soon, but what time frame is "soon"? 6 months, a year? A few years?
Did he just say the income fundamentals for home purchasing demand don’t matter? At 22 minute mark. I beg to differ. It always comes back to income fundamentals. That’s the root of everything. I don’t care how constrained supply is. Eventually that burns off when there are no more buyers due to houses being priced so far above the average no one can afford it. Not enough multi millionaires out there to prop it up.
It doesn't matter, just look at SoCal areas like South OC and West LA, people are still tripping over themselves paying top dollars like it's out of fashion...
Exactly. It’s still supply and demand. Housing supply is low with high prices and gentrification, now people’s supply of income is strained from high rent or golden handcuffed paying what they own. Now we are at the point where everyone has settled and maximized what they can tolerate to survive, so no more buyers for overpriced housing - no matter how constrained the housing supply is.
Disagree. We are still in the initial innings of the multi-year downturn. In the end, the Fed and government will not rescue low to median end households or mom and pop investors.
@@toinengwyn3935 it’s not my faith in the gov. It’s my faith that they are so corrupt. They will print/hand out anytning they need to in order to stay in charge to keep they money teet dripping from their special interest
My experience in Austin is a case study in how insane the market was here (and still is TBH) I bought a 3050 sq ft house in march of 2020 for 362k in a nice area (I knew things were going to get crazy in covid) at the highest point in 2022 it appraised for 750k. It can still sell for 550-600k now. Since I locked in at 2.65% for a 30 year when I refinanced it it's just insane to think of ever moving because why would I, and how would I ever get a better deal than that? Even now if someone was going to buy the same house they would be paying 2.5-3x as much in a monthly payment than I am due to interest rates and the home costs. Heck I could downsize to a house half the size and still have a bigger payment.
Believe it or not a lot of companies had work from home before Covid I was fully remote a year before and my position is perm work from home I’ll never go back
Logan ass-u-me s that FED is all powerful and has the tools to stop deflation. I'm not that sure. That may not always be the case. There are enough flaws in monetarist theory to almost guarantee the possibility of a failure.
Barry who? You said Barry is stressed out on MSNBC. There's two or three Barrys that are on that show. Who are you talking about? What's his last name?
it's really very simple. homes will continue to sit on the market longer and longer until prices drop by a lot. until then, logan can continue pretending to be happy about rising inventory and no sales lol
Here in central illinois people build pole barn homes that are much less wasteful of 2x4s and are much cheaper and most places dont require building permits, house are going up like mushrooms from st. Louis to edwardsville to greenville to effingham to mt. Vernon to carbondale... what housing crisis? Move to illinois , houses are cheap and plentiful and lots of jobs🎉🎉🎉
You are completely forgetting climate change, heat domes, insurance rises, car price rises . Half of California and Florida can't get home insurance ( requirement for mortgage) we are facing new headwinds we have not seen before. If they can it's 3x the payment
The climate alarmists are even worse than the YT CrashBros. People are still buying property in places that were supposed to be underwater and banks are still funding the loans. Time to detox from the spin machine.
I was raised in Florida 70 years ago. Always was hot. We didn't have AC so we were cooler outside. We didn't call it heat domes just summer. Miami held water when they ruined the everglades and built up Miami so much that water has no place to go. Heat domes are created by getting rid of all the grass, forest and trees and replacing with concrete. Our city leaders don't do anything to help the situation!
They’re still building mansions on land that will “be underwater” and banks are still funding the loans. CA has guaranteed insurance through the state. Time to turn off the spin machine.
Yup increase taxes on the population that has accumulated the wealth and use it to invest in housing and infrastructure. But this is socialism apparently
Kind of a genius idea. Another way to sequester the excess money supply while also putting those inflated dollars to work on different projects/subsidies/debt repayment. Sounds like a win-win, in theory.
@@logantcooper6 But that does not reduce the money supply, so it would be useless because the services they are providing are essential and if missing some one else will provide them with lower efficiency (as any market players tend to provide the worst service possible with maximum return), which in turn would lead to even more spending, and asset inflation which will lead to even more inflation. Taxes seems a better way :)
Mortgage rates were at or slightly below 4% for a dozen years. Buyers in that time aren't interested in moving now, and most cannot, which keeps inventory low. Since last year Boomers have been the largest group of buyers, the market's buyers of last resort. They of course have the most equity to move from an existing home, which is why prices have gone up YoY, even during an era of moderate interest rates. Once Boomers have slowed their home buying the market is tapped out and prices will crater.
The key to undestanding what is special about the 2019 to present is to look at the New economic theory and how that enormity that is basically socialism got implemented all over. The reasons for it, that is a diffrent menu.
23:35 Hey so for this percentage figure on 70%-80% sellers are buyers, can you provide more detail on that? Maybe it's presumptuous to say that's historical but I'd be interested to see your data on homeowners with more than one residence, and is it likely that sellers come back stronger once we have rate cuts and these rental properties, for example, make their way to the sellers market?
You can't talk about remodelling and construction workforce without considering the migrant workers that simply do not show up in the unemployment data.
Which reits would be good to watch for when this Commerical market corrects, or will it just be that another bank will take the debts serviced and continue the mortgages?
Real estate isn’t my strong suit but this is also just so hard to follow. Maybe that’s due to my lack of expertise but seems worthwhile to find a way to clarify this to some extent as it goes along.
They keep printing money, there’s lots of lucrative tax loopholes if you buy a house, student loans were suspended for years, insanely low interest rates, air BNB, black rock, home flippers, the market is so rigged against young people. Homes are a financial tool or speculative asset, not a structure for families to live in. It’s very depressing. From speaking to people my age, the only way non home owners will buy a house is if their parents give them the huge down payment. We live in such a corrupt system I don’t really believe prices will come down.
Best solution 5% income tax for having a second home. 12% for having third and 25% for having a fourth. Fix the market by keeping homes for families and investment money elsewhere.
![[UA] NAVI проти G2 Esports | Blast Premier Fall Final](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/QWlIm4FGESQ/mqdefault.jpg)
I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can .buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
Investing in real estate and stocks might be a wise choice, particularly if you have a sound trading plan that can get you through profitable days.
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who were forced to witness the 2008 financial crisis could expect to generate a large wage.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
I’ve been waiting and hoping that Eric would start a more in-depth market analysis podcast! Glad it’s finally here!
Great work, and great to see you approaching 100K subscribers.
Wow great genaric comment. Good job!
Just trying to help you out here, but playback your own video and listen to the quality of the audio. It echo’s really bad and makes listening to your content difficult.
This is why they reset humanity every couple of centuries. They stop playing the game and find out they are being used. 😂
Got the face rug and lost the cap. Bruh you ok?
The echo on this podcast is insufferable
Subbed. Econ. here; Air BnB, large increase in mom/pop 2-3 investment home owners, FOMO and CrAZy low rates for since the Financial crisis then Pandemic response which brings us to the irresponsible Bank lending policies- how could they know rates would rise?😅
But Joe Biden & Kamila Harris promised to give us Free Stuff---What happened ?
the same thing that happened when Trump promised the end to DACA on day1.
Fortunately, my spouse and I were able to pay off our mortgage early. While we were both still employed, we took the money we had been using to accelerate our mortgage repayment and invested it immediately. Thanks to nearly 7 years of saving what would have been our mortgage payment and to maxing out our 401K/403B plans, we were able to retire early. Fortunately, both of our parents instilled in us the need of living within our means.
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
“Iynne Marie Stella” is the licensed advisor I use.Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
What about all these corporations buying houses? I feel that played a very significant role
They are exempt from qualified mortgage requirements. Bond financing has the added benefit of interest only financing. It is anything but a balanced market. Corporate landlords compete among themselves at their price equilibrium while higher prices lock out the qualified mortgage buyers. Low inventories and low interest rates made it all possible. An asset bubble like no other.
The housing market didn't care about the flu.. it cared about extremely low rates. The 10 year UST hit a low of 0.53%- that's $5,300 in annual yield on a 1M dollar bond investment. The longterm average on the 10 year is 5.83% or over $58,000 on 1M. Of course investors looked for alternatives. Two 500K rental homes could gross you 60K a year and net you 20K a year and the underlying asset was appreciating by 10%+ YoY. And people are shocked this happened lol.. Artificially low rates have consequences. You witnessed the first pandemic in human history when RE prices went UP! (usually people dying en masse is bearish considering dead people don't need a house).
Great to see you've started a podcast
More to come!
@@EPBResearch Looking forward to it
@@EPBResearchthe more current the better. Love your content
Did this guy really just blame low housing inventory trends since ‘08 on millennials?!? What a horrible take… guess what started in ‘08? AirBnB and the start of investors buying up and hoarding residential housing.
No, they’re a small % of the total. Problem is incomes (inequality) and we don’t build starter homes doesn’t help
@@ptykozoon1658 23:48 watch again
Prices are rising into falling sales. This has been going on for years. How long can it diverge?
in 2024 millennials probably make up a significant percentage of the investors. But I get your point
Naw
Unbelievable that this high quality research is available for free
Yeah but it doesn't have a funny looking thumbnail. So most people won't see it lol. Logan is legit.
Logan, in the “Housing Market” section basically said he doesn’t know where the market will go and is looking at the data week to week. Logan is not alone, we are in uncharted territory with this economy and most economists have been wrong. Of course if you scream recession every month and/or years you’ll eventually be right.
we're always in uncharted territory when industry "experts" are talking, its the ultimate disclaimer for giving ridiculous OPINIONS. It's rare when theyre actually honest and tell you most realtors do "off-listing" or "pocket" deals to keep the MLS from being flooded. They bank on people being ignorant of true supply....and they do it by talk literally as fast as possible
Thanks, Eric, very insightful conversation. A better mic from your side would make it excellent.
New lights and audio coming in episode 2. We'll get a little better each episode.
Soooooo, outside of some extreme edge cases, there's no real hope of home prices correcting and the joys of California have been brought to the entirety of the country? How depressing but can't argue with the data.
That's correct. It's fucking bleak for your average American.
Patience. Half of today's homeowners will be dead in 10 years. Plenty of supply in the pipeline. You will be able to buy a 1980s McMansion cheap and convert it into a multiplex rental property.
@@edwardstanton3571 I'd put money on the other side of that bet. The silver tsunami is a meme.
A Recession changes everything, he claimed that in the past recession prior to 2008’s recession, housing did well because the Fed dropped rates and then buying continued keeping prices stable.
What he forgot to mention was that during that time, national savings was about 14% and hardly any credit card debt.
Now? National savings levels are at 3.8% and historically high credit card debt, if we have a recession which is looking unavoidable, home prices more than likely will drop..
@@johnnycastaneda2371 my guy, you need to get over it. 2008 isn't into you.
I used to make fun of you for being a housing permabear but since you brought Logan on, I’ll take it back. Well done young fella
Inflation Crisis. Days on Market for resales are high. Builders are giving crazy incentives to close homes and push prices higher. Resales are struggling now. This is peak season and it feels more like fall. This is not good. Builders will run out of loan money in 2025.
Prices up massively in colorado for anything west of I-25. Don’t know when it will end. People moving from Florida and Texas buying first day looking at property. It’s still insane here. Boulder county average1.5 million for a 1980s dump
Commercial space is in trouble. The pain will come from corporate debt rollover and Ai bubble. There's so many competing narratives... fudging of the numbers, all the revisions... it's like something is being delayed or someone is getting squeezed!
Amazing information and analysis, so many variables were mentioned and discussed, this interview was long and detailed reflecting how complex market trends are. For the same reasons no one can say for sure what's going to happen next and how economy and home prices will behave in the furute. Thanks for great interview.
No work AT ALL for my husband who is a construction worker in the union. Not for the next YEAR. U tell me, we r failing americans people.
I am with Remax on Vancouver Island. Four listings. Averaging about 3 showings a month TOTAL. It's very quiet.
You also sell houses in one of the most expensive places to live on the planet.
Vancouver island .... What's the average house price lol....
Sorry not in SoCal cities like Ladera Ranch, things still selling like hotcake
I think this was orchestrated by the gov. Why was real estate considered essential when there was a pandemic why didn’t the gov intervene with the craziness that was going on sooner. Who does it benefit most to have high prices? Higher property taxes perhaps to regain what was given during the pandemic? Just some thoughts? There might be a correction but a crash i doubt.
People who bla bla orchestra by the government mostly are very dumb and poor. And its connected. And mostly you dont know how things work. And the lack of your knowledge gets transformed into distrust.
Great interview! Really appreciated the perspective from Logan and the conversation between you two was fantastic.
amazing,physochollogy,nobody claims on insurance for 10yrs insurance companies make millions,suddenly there is a hurricane and insurance goes up ,why,nobody questions
People are going into massive debt buying homes cause someone is telling them it’s an investment. It’s pretty sad when they start to realize it’s a liability.
Despite the fact that I invest, I am frustrated by my incapacity to assess each company's performance and determine whether or not this is the best time to buy stocks. Inflation is depleting my monetary reserves. I need reliable market trajectory data at this point, but I'm not sure what to do.
There are numerous opportunities to produce substantial gains, particularly in this poor market, but such sophisticated transactions can only be carried out by seasoned market professionals.
I agree that there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can Logan preach about the importance of real home prices but then be bullish on housing with inflation adjusted home prices at record highs? Seems choosey with data.
He is one of the biggest housing shills on the planet
@@jfausset He lives in SoCal and so far he's been right all along, just look at places like Ladera ranch...never crash city
Prices in AZ have been insane. We were renting a 1400+sqft house in a beautiful area outside of tucson in 2016 for less than $1200/mo. I was looking at zillow thinking, "Man, if I could afford $2000/mo, we could live in a mansion right down the road from here."
Now in 2024, we were paying for a slightly bigger home in a much worse area in Phoenix for $2200... Our landlords tried to raise rent on us to $2400, so we moved to a bigger, nicer house in a better area for the same price instead.
Your wasting your money on rent. If you can afford $2,400, why didn't you buy a house years ago? That would have gotten you a beautiful large house, and have 100K-200k in equity
@@threeftr3349they absolutely are not wasting their money. They are paying more in rent to avoid financial ruin by buying a house at the top of the market that will also need expensive maintenance repairs and unaffordable insurance.
You are a troll and probably invested in real estate.
So excited to see longer stuff from EPB! Can't wait to watch these podcasts! :D
why can't real estate people just make a point, and then explain it, and then shut the hell up. This is as annoying as talking to someone about buying a house or a car, and they can't shut up. Make your point, shut up
Cities need more multi family housing supply to better absorb shocks in the housing market. Mainly single family home markets are too land inefficient to have the supply for population influxes.
That would cut into the profits of landlords, so we'll NEVER do it.
Most prefer sfhs.
As I approach retirement, I'd like to relocate from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but real estate costs are absurdly high, and mortgage rates have been steadily rising (now over 7%). Shall I simply put my extra money into stocks and wait for the housing market to crash, or should I purchase a house now?
You should critically examine the company you plan to purchase because the stock market will continue to decline. Better still, consider working with an investing advisor to reorganize your entire portfolio and reduce the problematic investments you now own. This method has shown to be highly effective for me in reducing stress and anxiety while also saving a significant amount of time.
Since the current market is not for the faint of heart, I have been thinking about hiring an advisor. However, do these advisors actually alter a portfolio significantly, or am I better off doing it myself?
Really nicely put. Could you tell me who this advisor is and how you found them? I've had a horrible year and I can't seem to find any locally.
Buy a house with cash
The housing market will not crash nationally. 2008 made international investors question the security of their investments in the US lead financial markets. The massive government intervention we've seen since then will keep that from happening again anytime soon., you can see that in the response to 2020- Blackrock etc came in and started buying after meeting with Mnuchin..Theyve only strenghthened the government integration with private finance since then. One thing they miss here is government subsidies for construction Solar credits installing energy efficient appliances, heating, cooling etc. You can bet that these types of subsidies will go up if jobs start to come down.
If you need a crash to afford anything then you'll need to go against the tide and move in after a hurricane or fire but you'll need to do your homework in advance so you don't buy a liability fire= toxic cleanup (Maui) etc.
Did your nose get broken relatively recently or what's going on?
12:40 The increased housing labor is directly tied to immigration.
Theres no doubt the government's hiring directives at play here.
If the builders have such a great advantage, why is their inventory near record highs?
Only USA. Not other countries.
The crash is ongoing and hidden to most people, because the unit of fiat valuation (USD) has been devalued about 6 times versus gold in 20 years.
the low interest rates during the lockdowns lulled people into thinking their houses were worth double what they are.
@@shioq. The housing bubble began so much earlier than that. I think people were already lulled into a false sense of security, COVID just made it all that much worse.
Even if this is true, most people don’t get paid in gold but in fiat currency. The main income source for most people is also the salary from the job which is paid out in fiat currencies. Salaries didn’t increase as fast as house prices or gold prices. For the average person this is what matters.
Wuhahahahahahaha
huge fan our yours, Eric, and love the research you do. Please invest in a nice microphone as it would make the podcast way easier on the senses.
Already done for episode 2
It cracks me up when everybody asks. "Why is employment so strong" when they know the numbers are fake. They revise those numbers down every time they release them.
It looks like we should be losing the jobs.
Gasp! BuT the NuMbErS sAy We ArEn'T
Seriously!
Is fast food still a "manufacturing" job? 😂
Amazing conversation. At 1:04:45 Logan mentions that some commercial real estate loans are maturing soon, but what time frame is "soon"? 6 months, a year? A few years?
Glad to see you started a podcast!
Such a great conversation! Thank you for this! All your videos bring great value and this longer form content/conversation was fun to listen to.
Did he just say the income fundamentals for home purchasing demand don’t matter? At 22 minute mark.
I beg to differ. It always comes back to income fundamentals. That’s the root of everything.
I don’t care how constrained supply is. Eventually that burns off when there are no more buyers due to houses being priced so far above the average no one can afford it. Not enough multi millionaires out there to prop it up.
It doesn't matter, just look at SoCal areas like South OC and West LA, people are still tripping over themselves paying top dollars like it's out of fashion...
Exactly. It’s still supply and demand. Housing supply is low with high prices and gentrification, now people’s supply of income is strained from high rent or golden handcuffed paying what they own.
Now we are at the point where everyone has settled and maximized what they can tolerate to survive, so no more buyers for overpriced housing - no matter how constrained the housing supply is.
There will be no housing crash on the low to median end homes.
Yup, over time everybody takes a step down. Low to median will equal upper middle class.
Disagree. We are still in the initial innings of the multi-year downturn. In the end, the Fed and government will not rescue low to median end households or mom and pop investors.
@@toinengwyn3935 no, they won’t. But the government sure will.
@@Jeff__M Putting your faith in the government to help the people. Not a good idea.
@@toinengwyn3935 it’s not my faith in the gov. It’s my faith that they are so corrupt. They will print/hand out anytning they need to in order to stay in charge to keep they money teet dripping from their special interest
My experience in Austin is a case study in how insane the market was here (and still is TBH) I bought a 3050 sq ft house in march of 2020 for 362k in a nice area (I knew things were going to get crazy in covid) at the highest point in 2022 it appraised for 750k. It can still sell for 550-600k now. Since I locked in at 2.65% for a 30 year when I refinanced it it's just insane to think of ever moving because why would I, and how would I ever get a better deal than that? Even now if someone was going to buy the same house they would be paying 2.5-3x as much in a monthly payment than I am due to interest rates and the home costs. Heck I could downsize to a house half the size and still have a bigger payment.
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need low energy costs to spur on new housing. the high interest rates gorgeous, but now we need more supply. let's f-ing go market crash 👏
A lot of tech is forcing their full-time employees to return to the office or get fired.
Believe it or not a lot of companies had work from home before Covid I was fully remote a year before and my position is perm work from home I’ll never go back
Also you mentioned: Population Growth... 😂😂😂
There is a population crisis. It is going down and scary fast.
Logan ass-u-me s that FED is all powerful and has the tools to stop deflation. I'm not that sure. That may not always be the case. There are enough flaws in monetarist theory to almost guarantee the possibility of a failure.
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Barry who? You said Barry is stressed out on MSNBC. There's two or three Barrys that are on that show. Who are you talking about? What's his last name?
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SVB uninsured deposits were paid off because who had uninsured deposits, the politically connected.
it's really very simple. homes will continue to sit on the market longer and longer until prices drop by a lot. until then, logan can continue pretending to be happy about rising inventory and no sales lol
For people coming here thinking they know everything or anything for that matter, is the reason this country is in such a mess!!
Here in central illinois people build pole barn homes that are much less wasteful of 2x4s and are much cheaper and most places dont require building permits, house are going up like mushrooms from st. Louis to edwardsville to greenville to effingham to mt. Vernon to carbondale... what housing crisis? Move to illinois , houses are cheap and plentiful and lots of jobs🎉🎉🎉
They are building pole barns because property taxes are crazy high there. People are moving out because of the crime and high taxes.
"Why home prices aren't crashing yet?" The mechanics of stagflation.
Eric, this is a phenomenal podcast. Please invest in a better mic and sound isolation boards.
Wonderful podcast. I enjoyed learning from Logan.
Why hasn't things gone to hell yet? It's not November 6th yet...
Great interview. I've loved your other videos, and look forward to more of these interviews!
They are not crashing yet ?
O k
Zero credibility here
You are completely forgetting climate change, heat domes, insurance rises, car price rises . Half of California and Florida can't get home insurance ( requirement for mortgage) we are facing new headwinds we have not seen before. If they can it's 3x the payment
The climate alarmists are even worse than the YT CrashBros. People are still buying property in places that were supposed to be underwater and banks are still funding the loans.
Time to detox from the spin machine.
I was raised in Florida 70 years ago. Always was hot. We didn't have AC so we were cooler outside. We didn't call it heat domes just summer. Miami held water when they ruined the everglades and built up Miami so much that water has no place to go.
Heat domes are created by getting rid of all the grass, forest and trees and replacing with concrete. Our city leaders don't do anything to help the situation!
They’re still building mansions on land that will “be underwater” and banks are still funding the loans. CA has guaranteed insurance through the state.
Time to turn off the spin machine.
Climate changes every season hence the different names 😂
Actually Gov. DeSantis is helping the everglades!
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I will be years before rates come down😅
Want more of this!!!
If they want to decrease the money supply the government could also increase taxes...
Yup increase taxes on the population that has accumulated the wealth and use it to invest in housing and infrastructure. But this is socialism apparently
Kind of a genius idea. Another way to sequester the excess money supply while also putting those inflated dollars to work on different projects/subsidies/debt repayment.
Sounds like a win-win, in theory.
Or stop spending so much...
@@logantcooper6 But that does not reduce the money supply, so it would be useless because the services they are providing are essential and if missing some one else will provide them with lower efficiency (as any market players tend to provide the worst service possible with maximum return), which in turn would lead to even more spending, and asset inflation which will lead to even more inflation. Taxes seems a better way :)
Mortgage rates were at or slightly below 4% for a dozen years. Buyers in that time aren't interested in moving now, and most cannot, which keeps inventory low. Since last year Boomers have been the largest group of buyers, the market's buyers of last resort. They of course have the most equity to move from an existing home, which is why prices have gone up YoY, even during an era of moderate interest rates. Once Boomers have slowed their home buying the market is tapped out and prices will crater.
The key to undestanding what is special about the 2019 to present is to look at the New economic theory and how that enormity that is basically socialism got implemented all over. The reasons for it, that is a diffrent menu.
Talking over the guest
23:35 Hey so for this percentage figure on 70%-80% sellers are buyers, can you provide more detail on that? Maybe it's presumptuous to say that's historical but I'd be interested to see your data on homeowners with more than one residence, and is it likely that sellers come back stronger once we have rate cuts and these rental properties, for example, make their way to the sellers market?
EPB Research I've been following your channel for about a year. Solid information. I love the podcast format. Keep'em coming.
When you ask a question, Eric, you don't have to include a litany of possible answers. Just ask the question and wait for the answer.
You can't talk about remodelling and construction workforce without considering the migrant workers that simply do not show up in the unemployment data.
Which reits would be good to watch for when this Commerical market corrects, or will it just be that another bank will take the debts serviced and continue the mortgages?
This guest needs to learn how to not talk over the host and constantly interrupt. Very annoying.
One of the biggest egomaniacs alive
Real estate isn’t my strong suit but this is also just so hard to follow. Maybe that’s due to my lack of expertise but seems worthwhile to find a way to clarify this to some extent as it goes along.
I live in Frisco Texas!!!
Our home prices exploded the past few years
tbh, industrial construction is holding up a lot of the economy rn bc of all the infrastructure spending and ppl r still taking on loans...
A macroeconomist has it all figured out. Well color me shocked!!!
“Logan”
Inflation isn’t something that just disappears,
12:30 - Very interesting question! Seems like productivity loss.
Real vs nominal home values, I'm not sure why most don't understand this.
Awesome podcast concept looking forward to future episodes
I thought Logan was saying to Jerome to land the plane.
Canada here we come. Every house will be a million or more.
miami condo market and single family market is very different
Absolutely fascinating multidimensional discussion.
Love the new podcast. Great stuff!
They keep printing money, there’s lots of lucrative tax loopholes if you buy a house, student loans were suspended for years, insanely low interest rates, air BNB, black rock, home flippers, the market is so rigged against young people. Homes are a financial tool or speculative asset, not a structure for families to live in. It’s very depressing. From speaking to people my age, the only way non home owners will buy a house is if their parents give them the huge down payment. We live in such a corrupt system I don’t really believe prices will come down.
Best solution 5% income tax for having a second home. 12% for having third and 25% for having a fourth. Fix the market by keeping homes for families and investment money elsewhere.
Can someone give me a tl;dr?
Blows my mind that EPB has less than 1m subscribers
On the way!
Will this podcast be on Spotify?
Excellent interview.
Logan is bar none my favorite housing analyst for years now. Great job, Eric.