This chart predicts every recession
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- Business Cycle Research - www.epbresearc...
Explore the reliability of the Conference Board Leading Index, a recession indicator with a flawless track record spanning six decades. This video delves into the current -7.5% growth rate, compares it with other indicators, and challenges the optimistic narrative driven by recent stock market performance, emphasizing the importance of staying vigilant to potential economic downturns.
Twitter - / epbresearch
Edited by - marketing.tran...
DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own.
Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
incredible, a fantastic start to financial independence! How can I contact your FA.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Calling a recession these days seems to be held back by politics. Nobody wants to be in charge when it hits.
Yeah - it actually seems plausible that enough massaging of data and gaslighting might push the day of reckoning past November. Looking at all the trends and FRED data, Q2-Q3 2024 seems the most likely point for that unemployment spike that accompanies every recession, but it hasn't cracked yet, so hard to tell.
Bingo. Current administration is probably the most criminal of all time. They are doing something behind the scenes. Most likely illegal. To make sure it happens after they lose the election. Because they will lose and they know it.
If trump wins they are going to dump the economy on his watch.
Funny part is that the longer we string it out by playing various games the worse it'll eventually be because our options will be exhausted with no fix to the underlying problems.
Just run a 7-8% budget deficit and economy keeps chucking along...🚞
I love this! Investors were and still are so hype that the stock market ended on a positive note. However all we did was go in a circle over the last 2 years. We have yet to crack 4818.62 on the S&P 500 index. On top of that the stock market is not the economy so the dynamics will always tell a different story. Not to mentioned the fed funds rate has been held steady at 5.50%. The lag effect has yet to kick in. Just like Eric mentioned the yield curve inversion of the 10yr &3mo have been inverted for quite some time. Historically the inversion has a 70% success ratio, but it might have changed. Honestly I really like this indicator that eric mentioned. People get far too bullish as soon as we get a little movement in a positive direction without considering where we are in the tightening cycle. We still have to go through interest rate cuts. while the economy reacts to everything else happening. Not to mention geopolitical tensions, and an unsustainable pile of debt. Of course we never know exactly how things will play out. but I'm excited to see what happens over the next 5 years. Great video!
its not the ppl, the media kept pushing the narrative and in denial with catchphrase "its diferent this time". With us election around the corner, history show(not always) when near election maket tends to bullish.
edit : Either way it goes, we should be prepared, as the quote says: 'When there's blood on the street, it's time to buy.' Statistics also show that we have more billionaires after COVID than before COVID. So, take it as an opportunity rather than being afraid of it. It's where money is made
I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
You see in the stock market, bigger risk begets bigger results that can work in the bulls' favor. I think investors who are wary of the changing market trends should seek out bear/bull mrkt directions from certified strategists.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her and scheduled a call.
no buy the sip when the recession hits
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Olivia Maria Lucas focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...
I remain eternally grateful to Olivia Maria Lucas for her efforts that got me to this point, finally payed off my mortgage and all my debts, what more could I've asked for. God bless you Olivia.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her contact webpage; thank you for sharing.
This is a bot and its obvious asf
What is different this time is the massive and sustained government borrowing. Way different.
Great analysis. Thank you for sharing. Happy New Year.
While investors are preparing to celebrate the year's soft landing, economic data doesn't appear to be cooperating, I’ve heard testimonies of people accruing over $250k in this current market. Please what measures can I take to ensure this?
A solid strategy can be a key component of an investor’s portfolio. Well, the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals.
Thats why having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024
@josephbush I highly suspect i'm much too small game to handle investing myself recently, figured out it will be good to consult a professional this new year, could you be kind enough with details of your advisor please?
She goes by 'Heather Lee Larioni'. I choose to delegate my excesses to her because of her great expertise. I suggest you look her up. To be honest, almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finances, but so glad I did!!!
Just found her page, and sent an email to schedule a meeting. Hopefully, she responds soon. Thank you
The biggest reason we haven't had a recession (despite yield curve inversion) is because of out of control deficit spending pumping the economy with printed money.
Biden has taken the stance that balooning debt to levels that eventually will destroy the worlds reserve currency, is better than allowing a politically infavorable recession. Look at the forecast of us debt and the cost of servicing that debt... It's soon and it's very scary.
Took me a while to figure out why the recession hasn't started yet... Deficit spending is the reason.
Great video!
I take reaffirment from my position we are in a 70s Carter Stagflation/deathspiral. 2-3 years of no capital growth. The stockmarket looks great cause its not a physical product. The hope is the rally up after pays off or the informational currency will evaporate given too long a delay. I feel a strong amount of risk to over exsposure to any stocks in general a broad and wide with other securities approach ect.
Would appreciate if you were to link the chart you talk about.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
What impresses me most about Michelle Stewart is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
While inflation has cooled down, we are still stuck at the higher inflation levels of the last 3 years, we're basically many years ahead of inflation schedule but income has not increased. with such huge percentage of the population now unable to be approved for median household cost, or afford average rent, let alone groceries and luxury items, the economy cannot sustain what growth there is, and almost all of the sp500 returns have come from the AI excitement boom in NVDA.
Good video. I would suggest not changing the colour coding between slides, as GDI/GDP switch colours at approx 5:42 mark, which can be confusing if the viewer does not look at the legend again.
Thank you Eric! You explain complex theories and make it understandable.
I wonder how insane amounts of money printing affects these numbers. I'm assuming that's why GDP is not very accurate anymore, seeing as it includes government spending.
WOW, just found your channel. Bravo for exposing the false narrative that the whole economy is full speed ahead that most of the media are pushing. Your research is 100% factual and undeniable. Simply the best. PERIOD!
So i have a bit of money that i want to invest. should i invest all in my selected etfs or invest about 50% and keep the rest as a cash reserve for a possible recession
Every time I hear someone say "this time is different", that is the time that a crash is coming very soon.
Grate content and graphics. What software do you use to make the animations?
David Lin needs you as a guest. Someone let David Lin know
Loved the charts and visualization. Very well made.
The stock market has been one of the only major (+) components of the LEI. Stocks always are last to display recession signals. Perfect track record. Is this time different..?
Macro jackanory theories are just blankets of hope in the cold of night for investors on the wrong side of the trade.
But if I'm reading the chart at 1:16 correctly: every time the blue line dips into the red, the gray areas are showing that the economy is already in a recession. But that doesn't seem to be the case right now. Does that mean we are in the clear, that its going to happen any day now or that it could still be another year before the economy really takes a hit??
Audio is scuffed, you need to use a limiter
A recession is absolutely what is needed to bring down inflation. It’s already happening in the US car market and in some housing markets.
Be wary, if the overall stock market collapses, that market cap lost doesn't go to money heaven, it could make its way into commodities for safety, so we could see even worse inflation.
Please keep the legend visible when you focus on specific parts of the graph. It would really help us with squirrel brains that can’t remember which was blue and which was red. Great video tho
The only reason why we are not 'yet' in a recession is because of the hangover effect of all of that pandemic spending the government did during the pandemic. But most of that cash has already been spent and the economy is quickly losing steam. Later, around September-2024, it will be clear that a recession has started.
We had the chance to go through a modest recession, instead what you have is massive government spending. Once the Fed cuts rates, unemployment is going to rise, but we won't see prices go down. We are headed full steam toward stagflation, the worst possible scenario.
You need to put out a video every week. Great content
These will thought of and produced videos are worth waiting for ❤
Can someone explain the reasons why GDI is more explanatory than GDP at the beginning of recessions?
It's doubtful that they can.
With the amount of people not buying houses, you'd think the American dollar would have vanished by now.
I've seen the lei and it looks like they never called the recession and now we're coming out of it
But the administration said there is no recession!
Remember the recessions of 2002 and 2020? Neither do I because we didn't have any.
great job with this presentation
It doesn’t predict anything. Showing past is not a prediction. It’s very easy to chart the past and say you knew what was going to happen after you’ve already seen it. The same thing could be said for the game of roulette.
He's back!!!!!
excellent video
We need a new video!
I just sold two real estate properties for a total sum of $800k. I planned on purchasing a new house next year, the cash is just sitting in my savings account. What do you recommend i do? I will appreciate any suggestions
Certain stocks and commodities are a good hedge againts inflation, however you need to know what exactly you're doing or better still, seek help from a money coach/invt- adviso
@Rodney_ChappleThis is a refreshing coincidence Camille Anne Hector and her team are really good they've been managing mine since last year
At first i was afraid before i gave it a try and realized fear kills dream more than failure
Her platform maintains a unique perspective and is very transparent with their investors. Regardless of whether or not she outperforms i will always stay invested as her methods alone with keeping investors in touch with their strategies and outlooks are something that so few managers are capable of and they should follow suit
CAMILLE ANNE HECTOR is the key in beating all odds to excel in this form of online commodity. Her management team is quite impressive so far! With SUK made a profit of over 28,863 dollar weekly.
Something to consider about _any_ indicator is that they never exist in a vacuum. Institutions and policy makers obviously take these into account, which can lead to both self fulfilling prophecies, and to apparent failures of the indicator, because _action was taken against the problem because of the signal._ On the other hand, it is important to understand selection bias and overfitting when looking at predictive indicators like these. If you have enough indicators to choose from, you will basically always be able to mix several of them into a "perfect" indicator, especially over shoeter time scales - the equivalent of flipping a bunch of coins and pointing to the one that landed heads every time by chance. Of course, these are pretty important metrics for the economy, and not mere coins, so they almost certainly do mean _something._ The economy and global political situation is not so simple as to be distilled down into a few numbers, so the important thing is to always have a position of humility and skepticism when making predictions.
0:24 "comprised of" 💀
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I’m sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stocks and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalising on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
Amazing! I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same fiduciary and how I can get in touch with them?
Wonderful! I hope it's acceptable to ask whether you and the fiduciary are still working together, as well as how I might contact them.
@@andypadova Selecting an advisor at the right time is a very personal choice. I seek advice from Vivian Carol Gioia in order to reach my development objectives and steer clear of blunders; she is highly qualified and her website is freely accessible.
The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from Vivian Carol Gioia to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stocks and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
You can start by dollar-cost averaging instead of buying a lump sum at once. Also, consult a fiduciary with crypto expertise for informed buying and selling decisions since talks of a bitcoin ETF approval. Time in the market is more valuable than timing it. Using this approach, I grew my crypto holdings from $50k in 2017 to $690k in 2023.
@@hunter-bourke21 Amazing! I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same fiduciary and how I can get in touch with them?
The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from *Gertrude Margaret Quinto* to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
*Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see as wealth, a great career, purpose is the result of hard work. 🤑🤑*
Well I must say people are scared because there are so many unprofessional brokers out there.
I think I'm blessed if not I wouldn't have met someone who is as spectacular as expert Faith Reece
Wow.... She has really made good name for herself, she's also my account manager
Since meeting Expert Faith, I now agree that with an expert managing your portfolio, the rate of profit is high, with less risk.
I agree with you. I'm not here to converse for her but to testify just for what I'm sure of, she's trust worthy and best option ever seen..
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Veronica Hoy.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Veronica Hoy here. I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
The very first time we tried, we invested $1400 and after a week, we received $5230. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
What impresses me most about Veronica Hoy is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
You trade with Veronica Hoy too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I'm considering a review of my $1million portfolio allocations, particularly in light of the pause in interest rate hikes. I'm eyeing some high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Crypto and emerging markets seem intriguing. Anyone else exploring these?
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1M in returns on investments.
How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my portfolio.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
“Vivian Louise Dehoff’’ You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.
Her name is ''Vivian Louise Dehoff'. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
You've been predicting an imminent recession for like 3 years (at least).
I think the video is sound. Generally speaking, however, I think you're right. We've been hearing "recession" (except it's not -white house) for a good number of years.
2008 was bad. Name brand restaurants closing up on the side of the road bad (McDonald's, KFC, Waffle House, etc.). You could pull off an exit and find that there's literally no place to grab a sandwich. I hadn't seen that before in my lifetime.
What we're in right now is different. Never before had the government shut down everything for a year plus. (and, if we learned anything from that: never again). At the same time you have job opening signs everywhere but no one seems to want to work. Inflation is bad - we all see that (except the white house), but that's what you get for paying people to be home and do nothing for several years - the loss in the value of currency.
At the same time, interest rates have gone up, we've experienced supply change issues, some of this is best seen at the car dealers with the roller coaster they're on:
- everyone stay home (car sales go down)
- car production goes down
- dwindling / almost no cars on the lot
- dealers take advantage (not saying they're wrong) and start adding dealer markups to the tune of $5-10+K.
- car lots start filling back up.
- car sales are down further
- car lots are overflowing and now dealers are paying interest on cars they can't sell
- somewhere in there manufacturers raised MSRP - "because" (I get keeping with inflation but a good number of them are well over that figure)
It's pretty well screwed now.
With higher interest rates people can't afford the car hey once could and now that car is $30K more.
Same bit with housing. If you were thinking about buying, now it's rougher because the interest rates are up.
All of that should put a drag on the economy... Still... I see people eating out, regularly, and doing things and I think this may be part of the COVID nonsense. Essentially I think people are in the "I've already hunkered down for 1+ years (depending on where you live). I'm done with that."
I just think we're in unprecedented waters right now and it's not quite like the clockwork picture painted in the video or what people normally expect.
Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see as wealth, a great career, purpose is the result of hard work. 🤑🤑
Well I must say people are scared because there are so many unprofessional brokers out there.
I think I'm blessed if not I wouldn't have met someone who is as spectacular as expert Faith Reece
@@IvarGreenWriting her has been the best decision I have made
Since meeting Expert Faith, I now agree that with an expert managing your portfolio, the rate of profit is high, with less risk.
I agree with you. I'm not here to converse for her but to testify just for what I'm sure of, she's trust worthy and best option ever seen..
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
“Leila Simoes Pinto’’ You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
With the current amount of government spending it is difficult to fall into a recession, once that stops, a recession will occur. If the government does not stop spending and going into debt, a default or hyperinflation is inevitable.
Private investment has also increased we have record investment in manufacturing right now in the United States.
Excellent point sir. Your second sentence is dead on and I agree 100%. The only problem I see with your first sentence is that the Fed has raised interest rates so fast that the effects of this have yet to truly hit home with corporate earnings. By the time the economic indicators contract (which should happen sometime this spring/summer) it will be too late for the Fed to react. It's no coincidence that in reality every recession starts when rates start FALLING, contrary to what everyone thinks and what's supposed to happen. Bond yields have plummeted in the last 2 months, which I believe is a warning sign of a bear market but is being interpreted as the exact opposite. The only tool left for the Fed will be another round of stimulus which will send the M2 skyrocketing and will trigger the type of inflation we saw in the 70's. So to summarize, the hyperinflation you refer to as "inevitable" may be much closer than we think. Inflation is the killer of capitalism, just look at Argentina, Venezuela, Greece, and the Weimar republic of Germany in the 1920's. The only way to avoid this is for the Fed to cut off the spending and let the stock market regulate itself by crashing like it was supposed to in 2008 and 2020.
There are multiple economies in Europe that are spending more as a % of GDP than the US is, and they’re already in recession.
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
She's fantastic and totally not a scammer that tries to lure in gullible idiots via UA-cam comments! I have grown my initial investment of 87 cents and three pairs of only half used socks to a fortune of over $950000000 in just 26 days!
@EmiliaAbelardMarina caused me reduce my protfolio from 300 trilion dollars to 150 trilion, 50% percent lose :(. She then advised to invest in star dast and in rare elements such as dark matter, I lost again 50 trillion dollars. Im no longer client, this was bad decision ever
Eric is one of the analyst that I have been following for sometime and who has not changed his tune about recession. It takes a lot of conviction to stick with your analysis, and for Eric this comes easy as he is thorough and deeply analytical. Deep respect.
He made a "recession somewhere between June 2023 and June 2024" call on Adam Taggart's show in May 2023, I believe. And that prediction still seems plausible to me.
so I am a layman and don't know economic. but reading the graph, isn't it saying we are already in a recession? and start to recover? even it doesn't tell the magnitude. what am I readying wrong?
Dude is consistently wrong I gotta give credit to his ability to find another correlation to predict the next recession. Michael Burry would be proud..
Has he predicted anything correctly yet?
@@Mrwatson185just becos ponzi scheme is still going on and beyond his control doesn’t mean he is wrong. He doesn’t control govt or fed. But this Ponzi scheme will end.
I'm getting back into the stock market after staying on the sidelines for some years. Right now i have $2 million from the sale of my airbnb properties and i am thinking about doing a 70/30 stocks bond ratio. What are your thoughts on that?
While 2 million $$ might seem a lot, one wrong move could significantly erode it. Therefore, be super careful how and where you invest. Best to diversify while keeping 70-80% of it in safe investments. Also with your budget i'd suggest you consider financial advisory.
Had a good run during my first year in the fin-market, I assumed I had a hang on it. However, things changed during the pandemic, and I needed to diversify into safe assets, so I approached a coach who devised a structure that matched my annual goal of 45%
@@dogmom-pt5we Who is the coach that advises you? I'm in urgent need of one; my stock portfolio is still in the red, even though there was an early boost this year.
Monica Amanda McClure is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
You’re only the second source I’ve found relating LEI indicators to recessions. I’ve always wondered why no one else talks about it as an indicator. Great video!
Found it - was “Pit Bull” by Martin Schwartz read about 10 years ago (to put it in perspective how long it’s been since I ran across the 2nd source discussing the LEI!). Was one of the biggest nuggets from the book I took and has helped immensely. Began moving out of long positions earlier in the year and trade only very short term when there is a very compelling TA chart.
Because everyone is still in Vegas, on a cruise, in the Hawaii, Caribbean etc with a 2-3% mortgage rate. So this time it is different.
@@vishnu2699or they’re up 200% in 6 months on their crypto portfolio
@@vishnu2699That's probably very true, however CC debt is through the roof, most likely because people can't use their home as a piggy bank via cash out refis. And car repos are going nuts, also lending evidence to a recession coming.
Given the uncertain economic conditions and heightened global tensions, I'm considering investing over $800k in stocks. However, I'm uncertain about how to minimize potential risks.
Consider hiring financial advisors, estate planners or tax experts. They can provide specialized knowledge and help you navigate complex financial decisions.
Having an investment adviser is the best way to go about the stock market, especially for near retirees and newbies, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly and I made over $1.5M within two years I started investing
How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings
“Natalie Marie Gentry’’ You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.
I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip.
Eric, keep on fighting brother! Sending all the positive vibes over to you. We need you to keep making these amazing videos on macro economics for many, many years!
No one positive from him. He always talk about recession and u think he is positive??
@@tapeworm5506 he's battling cancer right now. nice one, tape worm...
A 6-minute _Masterpiece!_ Compelling. Intuitive. Engaging. Graphically brilliant.
This man has been predicting a recession for 2 years now while we keep blowing past GDP and unemployment estimates. Just because someone presents something with pretty charts doesn't make it correct. It's just wishful bear porn.
Yeah I love how he used the thumbnail with the current year and the zig zags with black and red! No one is doing that thumbnail graph these days! Stoked for the 2025 version!
Hope your health is doing well man. Good to see you keep producing content. All else is secondary
Soldiering through 🫡
Thanks for using a dark background.
Fr at night it is the best
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in last month 2023.
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Woah for real? I'm so excited. Rebecca Hickman strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months sometimes lesser and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life ✊🏻❤
David Rosenberg, ‘just because it’s December and hasn’t snowed, doesn’t mean winter has been called off’
Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly
I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
I agree. This is why having the right plan is invaluable, my $510k portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a more figures ballpark goal this 2024
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly
I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
I agree. This is why having the right plan is invaluable, my $510k portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a more figures ballpark goal this 2024
Pls can you recommend this particular coach you using their service?
She's a "Heather Lee Larioni". Also maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.
Thanks for this. Found her and looked through her credentials before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
"Economic fundamentals have clearly not changed." I guess stable, low inflation, low jobless claims and rising GDP are not economic fundamentals?! But don't worry, if you keep predicting a recession year after year, you will eventually be proven right.
The avg. American is having a tough time, I know I am not alone. There are others in same position as me. By certain statistics: 22% of americans have no retirement savings. 64% are worried that they will not have money in latter years while 47% of adults who are not yet retired think they have to work part-time in retirement. How can I best grow the 120k I have saved so far for retirement which has 0:02 depleted over the years?
Think about actions you’re taking that might be harming you such as carrying over credit card debt each month.
I agree with the reply above. I also think you should think about steps you can take to start. Start somewhere. Anything is better than being frozen even.
Make sure u use a professional planner, personally i use monica mary strigle and we've made a large 0:02 profit in the past 7 months
commenting on july 31 2024, there seems to be no recession yet. 6 months after this video. is this recession signla a false reading then?
I looked at your videos list from the last 12 months. You have been WRONG every step of the way, singing the same old song.
Try to get a real job.
I think the problem with trying to predict a recession through indicators and data is to liken a recession to a thing rather than a circumstance.
Every recession had a unique cause. A recession is like an economy telling a crazy story to its buddies at the bar. They are closer to case studies than they are some data point.
The reason I'm skeptical of this analysis is because the worst seems honestly behind us. Inflation is down from its highs, unemployment is low, some of the biggest bank failures ever didnt lead to a contagion. I will be willing to change my mind if I am wrong.
This is not a hate comment or anything, but can anyone explain why just combining indicators that all have false signals built into one suddenly makes it super accurate? wouldn't their false indicators still be feeding into the combined analysis? That's a genuine question here, I hope someone with a big brain can help me out.
They all have "occasional" false signals. However, they are not likely to all have false signals all at the same time. It's basically taking all signals and averaging together, lessening the impact of a false signal from one or two of the indicators. It's a similar philosophy to repeating an experiment 1000 times and taking the average of the result. You may have some outliers, but by averaging it all it gives you a decent idea of what will happen. My potential criticism and question though, based on light research, is that this index seems to place alot of weight on goods as opposed to services, where services make up a much bigger portion of the US economy. But perhaps it still works.
@@mattc1817 thanks, I tend to never try and predict the stock market but it's entertaining enough these indicators. Just seen too many videos that get predictions horribly wrong even though they seem to have data to back up. Market will always suprise.
I'm wondering how many recessions this indicator actually predicted vs how many would have predicted in hindsight.
I searched for its history and it's easy to find.
Also, a technical recession already happened.
Wait this is just a chart of every Republican President
@@marksweeney5237Facts hurt
Interesting that LEI and yield curve have never failed calling a recession - while at the same time on 12/28/2023 a breadth thrust occurred ( sp500 summation cycles from
Stock market numbers reflect price. Just because prices are high does not mean the underlying economy is healthy. It can equally mean a weak dollar. Likewise, pointing to higher stock prices in an inflationary economy like it's a good thing is stupid.
@@dawnfire82 I guess you have no idea what a breadth thrust means...good luck shorting
The one factor that has changed significantly since 2007 is the size of USG deficits. Could borrowing 5-15% of GDP each year prevent a recession? What effects does it have on economic activity? We have never seen such deficits in the US over such a long period of time.
I believed everyone loses in a recession, but some make millions. Similarly, not everyone went out of business in the Great Depression; some started new ventures. In summary, tough times bring losses for some and profits for others, rooted in the right mindset. Now, as a beginner, I've saved $220k for the future.
The LEI is now positive and has been for two prints. "The LEI did not signal a recession for the second consecutive month" - the conference board.
Now what?
Crapitalism. It's never solved the issue of poverty and crashes every 15 years on average but we keep going back to it... "But but but this is the best we can do"
Hahahaha😂
Its 6 years on average. And they are getting worse everytime.
@@manuellanthaler2001 it has dips every 5 or so years but full blown crashes on average over the last 150 years have been every 15 years.
Will you make a video explaining why you were wrong with your repeated recession clickbait videos?
Only one thing is for sure, no one actually knows what’s going to happen. All these economic analysts and financial advisers have been saying a recession is coming for years. I was watching the same videos last winter that the recession was going to be here by June/July 2023. Here we go with ANOTHER round of “the sky is going to fall” videos. Only one thing is for sure, all these yo-yo’s that put their videos together want to be able to say they were the ones to predict it. Ya know what they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Usually a recession starts materializing when the Fed announces rates cut which is likely to happen this year
The Conference Board US leading indicators latest release is no longer focasting a recession in 2024, care to explain?
No recession then, nothing to explain.
where can I find the actual monthly data CB LEI for each of the 10 indicators? Thank you.
Just Google it. LEI US conference economic board.
Just Google it...
Where is that a *leading* index? It always plunges into the red zone only after the recession had already started. It is a lagging indicator, albeit with a very short lag. But definitely not leading.
The amount of scam investment comments on this video is just insane 😮
Your mic gain is too high, it clearly clips too high
Crash should come as a surprise. Now everyone predict crash trying to be the next Michael Burry so it will not happen. When people make onlu bullish videos about stock market the you should bee cautious
Excellent as always. Thank you for the analysis!
1982 was a bad year . It took 3 years to recover.
It’s interesting that, based on the past conference board leading index values, we should have already been in a recession by now.
Absolutely love it!! The journey is not always easy, embrace persistence, patience and perseverance. Outline your goal and pull your efforts together to attain that goal. I had a fair share of struggles before diving into crypto last year. And let me tell you, it completely changed my life! So don't lose hope
That’s a great motivation! I thought about ¢rypt0 but unsure of it. I need to do something quick. What can I do?
Spot on. The market presents a lot of opportunities to create passive income, with the right skill and proper understanding. Whether you’re not sure about what to invest in, or you don’t have time to manage your assets, just make sure to consult an advisor.
I partner with Olivià CharIotte OswaId.
You can look her up and get in touch
Cryptos and real estate crowdfunding are awesome lnvestment options! It's great that you're growing with Olivia.
Thank you for offering your advice. Definitely grabbing this opportunity. just found the webpage
This has been my view too. I'm still in equities until that yeild curve inversion starts to get close to reverting. There will be trouble soon after. I'd say we see the start of it by the summer when some of those larger rate hikes hit their 18 month mark.
My question to you is why does reverting of yield curve is trouble?
Same I didn't know about this indicator I was looking off the inverted yield curve. It looks like when the yield starts normalizing then things fall into a recession. As much as people have been demanding fed cuts, it's almost always during fed cuts when the market drops.
Been saving money the past year putting it in CDs, been rather nice. Probably buy my first house if a crash happens put like 50% down.
dude, haven't you been moving the goal post for the past 2 years. At some point, even a broken clock is going to be right.
Predicting market movements is extremely difficult in reality. It requires the investor to be right twice: Essentially why individuals engage service of experts who provide proper strategies to navigate the markets
Agreed, which is exactly the reason I stopped taking advise from UA-camrs; in the long run, I only end up with a jumbled collection of stocks and bonds. Whereas all I needed to earn over $350k in less than three years was guidance from a true market strategist.
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Fergus Waylen's support. This way you can get strategies designed to address your unique long/short-term goals and financial dreams..
I am surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon some of his clients testimonies on CNBC news last week..
His technical analysis is excellent and hid interpretation/projections of the market is so accurate I sometimes ask myself if he is human haha. Point is, Waylen is the perfect trader to follow for advise and daily signals.
What impresses me most about Fergus Waylen is how well he explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use his trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
Two main graphs were brought and both of them show that the indicators are plunging mostly while that recession was already on. Today, the indicators are relatively worse than the other periods yet no recession is happening right now and unemployment is still historically zero.
Give it until August of this year and we are a couple rate cuts in. That's when you'll see unemployment start to pick up real steam should it go above 6.88 Million
These moves takes many months if not years to play out. You have to be patient. Just because this signals a recession doesn’t mean it will happen next week or even next month.
I mean, we could and and probably are in a recession right now, but in order to capitulate into a bottom it will probably be late 2024 at the EARLIEST.
@@Dr.HowieFeltersnatch actually, I do not deny that. The official definition is two quarters of negative growth and we already saw that, even just barely, while the mass media denied and covered for that. We also had a good quarter that made everyone forget about the 2-3 poor ones. On top of that, why do we even need some official announcement of a recession? Is it to 'sell for newspapers' or exploit against whoever is the current administration? Is it to frighten people and companies even more?
The conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is no longer forecasting a recession this year on Feb 20th's release. Are your indicators telling the same story ?
Did you see the chart? I only found the one where in January it is still in recessionary territory
@@trappart9209 the conference board Feb 2024 release is on their website. on the third paragraph, it says " While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.”
Can't we just re-define 'recession', so that even if things turn into a dumpster fire, we can still say "nope, no recession here." ?
Great stuff!; Get a new microphone.