Amazon and Apple Earnings: First Impressions
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- Опубліковано 9 вер 2024
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I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances.
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If you enjoy it, you can stick around, if not, you can cancel any time - there's no risk involved!
My advice to new investors: Buy good companies stocks and hold them as long as they are good companies. Just do this and ignore the forecasts and market views which are at best entertaining but completely useless.
The key to big returns is not big moving stocks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investing to day trading.
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
Is there any chance you could recommend who you work with? I've wanted to make this switch for a very long time now, but I've been very hesitant about. I'll appreciate any recommendation.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip
So True! My profit hits differently 🔥
l made better decisions that grew my finances (over 1M in 2yrs) with heIp of my financiaI pIanner. Got my 3rd house Iast month, and will retire soon.
Elizabeth Greenhunts
get to her with her name..
My portfolio for the past 30 years has always been self managed and I own 3 shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock (BRK:A) which I bought in at about $17,000 during the mid 90s, I’m currently liquidating some of these positions to incorporate new Gen. Stocks, but am I better off re-investing into Gold as it seems stocks are a little too unstable right now.
Yes just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.
Invest in real estate, ETFs and high-yield savings account.
I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.
Impressive can you share more info?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Nancy Magaret Delony for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She is quite known in her field, look-her up.
I swear, Intel dropped like a stone tied to a horse tied to a bus because that one gentleman poured $700k of his inheritance from his grandmother directly into this company's stock the day before earnings.
Roughly $120K in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
True. Having the right financial planner is invaluable. My portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 90% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take till Q3 2024.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one.
Lucinda Margaret Crist is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Amazon dropped because 50 PE means you need to grow fast. Their revenue estimates were under expectations, so low growth means PE compression
What do you consider a stable P/E , @mircea_h ?
Revenue growth of 10% is amazing when net income and EPS grows 50-80% yoy
Just p/e doesn t mean anything
PE is not a good measure on Amazon. The profit margin of their biggest part, the online store, is very small. That's why you usually value Amazon on FCF basis
Agree that simple pe only is superficial for growth companies,but let's be very careful how we measure this growth. Single digit revenue growth means regular growth, no more hyper and thus no more price premium on the stock
If i split Amazon into main revenues I see AWS, store and adds. If we compare these with competition like azure, like Google or meta for adds, these companies grow at the same rate or faster while at the same time having PEs of 35 and under 25. Are you really sure what are you paing so much for? Is Amazon growing faster than any of these competitors?
Amazon doesn't have free cash flow because they are always investing and growing. Are they growing? Was Alexa a good investment, or just walk out stores with indian AI. Are you sure profits are not wasted? Ever since AWS no more innovation in my opinion. AWS market share is going down, now it's at 31 and azure and others are growing. Not a great outlook
Always remember KODAK. Even a 95% market-share can lead to disaster.
I came across your channel through this video-case studies are incredibly valuable, and I'm eager to see more in the future! Building wealth involves establishing routines, like consistently setting aside funds at regular intervals for smart investments..
You're correct. I think the smartest way to go is to spread out your investments. By putting your money into different asset classes like bonds, real estate, and stocks from other countries, you can lower the risk if one part of the market goes bad.
That sounds like a good plan. In the past two years, working closely with a financial market specialist, I've built a six-figure diversified stock portfolio. Now, I aim to diversify even more this year.
Talking about a financial market specialist, do you consider anyone worthy of recommendations? I have about 100k to test the waters now that large cap stocks are at a discount... Thanks
ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING' is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Damn. Amazon dropping 10% is massive.
@Frede1984 I love it...Backed the truck up on her today...Let's gooo!
If you bought AMZN on 03.08.2020 and hold it till now (02.08.2024 and the market is still open), you would made approximately 5% return for that time. Not annually, but for the entire 4 year period.
For comparison, for that same time period, Costco has 140% return (without the dividends).
Yea, sometimes things just don't work out. Otherwise, you could've bought in 2022 when Amazon was at $85 and made quite a bit.
Berkshire/Buffett just sold nearly 50% of its stake in Apple, your thoughts?
Amazon stock hasn’t moved in over 2 years and PE is not coming down.
Intel in the 20s wow! Thanks for the content and sticking with the fundamentals
Just found your channel.
Its nice to not feel like youre selling anything. Just giving your view and info. Thank you
Well, he is selling something - he is selling access to Qualtrum. I don't mind it too much though, he's not disingenuous about it, I feel he genuinely wants to have a nice easy tool for people to visualize things. And he doesn't sell it too hard.
As for his stocks - with his stock picks, his whole audience could probably sell their houses and pour all of their money into his stocks and it would not move them at all :)
@@theWebWizrd That's true, but he doesn't push it on his viewers and rarely advertises it in his videos (overtly at least... of course he's advertising it by using it )
Good company doesn't automatically mean good investment.
Bad company does automatically mean bad investment.
@@fuhishva not true, everything can be a good investment if the price is low enough. There was one bank in Poland that was having problems and price was lower than net cash. They paid a special dividend to redistribute that amount to shareholders. Terrible company, but you were paying pennies for a dollar. I bet there are more stories like this but are hard to find.
Ok... expand on that thesis. Do you have an example?
@@Wrex327 hahaha yeah that's the cigarette butt style of investment Benjamin Graham liked and Buffet did in his earlier years.
I would love to see what you think of Nike
He's talked about Nike repeatedly
Might be worth going through some of his recent videos you haven't seen.
or LULU 💀
@@DJDinnerPlaTe that would be a good one tooo
It's time to buy more Amazon
Expeditiously
too expensive right now
@@JS-rg7voLol this comment will look silly in 10 years 😅
Just Stop JS rg
@@JS-rg7vo it literally does not matter if the intrinsic value is growing every quarter.
You haven't talked about VICI in a while
It’s a boring ass real estate stock. Just hold
Personally so glad it recovered recently. I totally expected the recovery to start this summer but that was just conjecture. I figured Vegas will be active over the summer. Also Vici spent alot in recent times building out and buying so I figured their spending will slow down and they can stabilize numbers. You're right though....Joseph been ignoring Vici.
hoping for a decent dividend raise soon
Biggest landlord in Las Vegas.
• Their CEO was able to identify an untapped market before private equity and folks like BlackRock or Brookfield Asset Management.
• Landlord business is boring but quiet compounder of wealth
• this price looks attractive (5.25% starting yield)
Until the feds begin to cut @@Boblol126
Thank goodness that the Tech A.I. Bubble is finally bursting!
Can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not, but a slight correction is healthy during bull markets
Interesting video bud, can you do a video on Nike? Be interesting to know why it's tanking and if it's a buy.
He did a while back and said they suck now and lost market share.
Prof g markets has a good one on that
Buy LULU instead
the sneaker hype is dead
Intel crashing down sheeeesh. Glad im not holding that trash stock.
I think its a secure bet… we’ll see in December/Jan
@@BrunoFerreira-iv6fk loool its a value trap. Unless something changes its dead. Doing nothing for 5 years
@@seniorkevin i believe is continue to go down due to staff layoff … but Intel is a big player in USA with investments in China and other countries… however this is criticized by many
@@BrunoFerreira-iv6fkdoesnt mean stock goes up
@@seniorkevin we'll see how it unfolds during the next 5 years. I don't think Intel is doing "nothing" for 5 years. They have that lithography machine from ASML set up in Oregon and have other lithography machines on order. "According to a report in TheElec, Netherlands-based ASML has capacity to produce around five or six units of high-NA EUV equipment each year, with Intel having secured all five that are slated for production in 2024. Each unit costs approximately $370 million." Let's see what Intel can do here in America with that high tech equipment. I'm going to start building a long term position into INTC and see where it goes.
Thanks for the videos man! It’s nice to get different perspectives from UA-camrs and at the end of the day make your own decision.
AMZN has had ~$11.73 billion in FCF for first 6 months of 2024. So in order to reach the $70 billion FCF that you are projecting for full year 2024, AMZN would need to produce over $58 billion in FCF over the next 6 months.
Not impossible, but seems highly highly unlikely (AMZN would have to produce more FCF in the next 6 months than it did in the last 12 months).
All of this is to say, yeah I think your valuation might be a little too high.
It might be too high but you are not considering the investments made for the past years. They went from -16B to +33B (increase of 50B in 6 months). All due to expenditures which are done for the coming years. According to my stats they are at 45B right now. With 50B expenditures. Decrease 50B by half and you are at 70B.
@@seniorkevin
Yeah actually, on the earnings call, the CFO said AMZN plans on spending MORE on capital expenditures in the second half than they did in the first 6 months of 2024. So I wouldn’t project less spending, unless you believe he’s lying.
@@jcir454 it will pay off eventually. Market timing never a good idea imo. If their most profitable businesses growing at 20% cagr no worries
I think this is a great observation. My counter point would be that Amazon posts wildly uneven free cash flow numbers quarter by quarter. In Q1 of 2023 the free cash flow number was -$9 billion, the same quarter the following year the free cash flow was +$4 billion. Thats a swing of 13 billion from one year to the next. And then they have some quarters, like Q4 of 2023 where they posted $28 billion in free cash flow in a single quarter.
I really think Amazon "could" hit $70b+ in free cash flow quite easily if they wanted, this year, even with the slow start to the year. But the question is whether they decide to do that. They may go down the route of more huge capex investments for AWS/AI, etc. They generate enough cash flow from operations, the question is how much capex we have to subtract out of that.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours
Yes, I agree FCF is lumpy quarter-to-quarter. Which is why I made the point to include trailing 12 months, which includes all previous 4 quarters. AMZN would have to produce more FCF in the next 2 quarters than they have for all of their previous 4 quarters.
I think they COULD accomplish this if they took the gas off the pedal on investments, but keep in mind these investments fuel future growth, and they have never been a company that has shied away from investing heavily for future growth.
Have been refreshing youtube, waiting for your reaction. Way to go!
me too! such great content
It’s definitely a time to buy now for Amazon. It’s tanking since the ER
Incorrect. Microsoft had more cloud revenue than Amazon (just). Amazon is now number two, not number one!
any pullback in AMZN should be bought
Just did
No thinking at all.. just buy right?
@@yatinkheti2427 thinking should be done initiating position. if you think something in the thesis has changed, don't buy. my thought is nothing has changed and there are so many possibilities for them. even in a recession more folks will use AMZN to save $$$. WMT and AMZN usually do well through recessionary times. their cash flow is incredible and they just cannot sit on it. Best of luck..
Thanks for showing your portfolio once again.
Omg, I am buying some Amazon on this down turn, don’t sell and lock in losses, let’s buy and lock in inevitable gains!
Iam buying Microsoft. Even if it seems costly, Microsoft seems to be best positioned for AI and Cloud- Services.
50 to 52 billion fcf is a big slow down from 36 to 50 billion tho
Check again Amazon price after hours 😂
I wish I could buy. My money is stuck in the stock while it's down 10%
Booking looks very interesting.
Hi! Does someone has the link of the video of joseph talking about intel, i would like to watch it. Thanks!
Excellent video
Would like to watch your analysis on $FICO, $CME, $MCO if you may
Whenever Bezos sells is a good time to rethink the market.
Just bought AXP stock, more Visa, AMAT, VOO, BRK and Microsoft. Sold out of CP because they are simply more attractive opportunities. Has your stance on CP changed for the current time?
I would wait and see, aunt flow is in town..
Will be buying more AMZN tomorrow!!!I was waiting for a nice pull back under 180$ and right now is down 5% after market
Buy it after hours?
@@madzyadzy07 tomorrow at market open
I just bought some at 169. I was also waiting for bkng to go down to get some so same story :)
Beating on EPS when not buying back stock is very good
Hello Joseph,
With the bad results of Intel, the semi sector crash a bit also.
It seems an interesting time to have a look back at ASML which I know is a company you like but was too expensive for you
Hey Joseph, what do you think of Berkshire Hathaway?
Can you make a video covering your opinion on the “great rotation”?
INTC is a pain in my portfolio
Then sell it?
Tack!
What are your thoughts on CCL? Since you are so bullish on Booking
this 10% drop must be hurting like a mfer
Added some BKNG today 🙌
Same, love the service, the company and the valuation
Intel stock is very interesting to watch around earnings. The past weeks and months a couple of tech journalists and IT experts unearthed and reported on a serious issues with a lot of Intel CPUs. These are serious enough, that I would say those will result in expensive RMAs and, judging by how poorly Inel is handling this, also in some expensive law suits. Yet, curiously Intel stock didn't move really or rather, even went up a bit. Combined with fundamentals and their product pipeline (product developement is promising but nothing amazing) it was clear to me that the stock will go down. However, I was suprised by how much it went down. I expected this information, or rather the logic result of that information, to be priced in a lot more.
It seems analysts and most people that buy stocks like intel only focus on waht the company reports and mabye some bloomberg articles and not reports by customers (big OEM customers not individuals) or tech experts.
apples market share in india is below 10% , they are making a big push in india . im still bullish for their growth
BUY! BUY!! BUY!!! 🥳🥳🥳
Seeing rotation from mag7 to wba top billionaires are buying
Thank you for your consistency and transparency!
Can you please give us an update on your new stock watchlist. Thank you!
@elro5899He did, he is showing it every time when he opens or closes the position. He did say that he completely sold out of union pacific, and told why he did it in a video „I Finally Sold Costco” on Joseph Carlson. So if you dont watch the videos don’t spread out misinformation. Thanks :)
Apple's 5% growth in a quarter is not bad in my view.
Specially considering the June quarter is the softest of the year. I bought my first AAPL stocks in 2010 and will add up some more as the general market drops.
Proud Non-Iphone User😊
What do you think? Rddt good stock
Bookings for sure this whole gen is wired for it apples brand has pp Amazon is incredible not matter what they say.
Good vid 👍
I like booking but rather just buy more google
The tone of the video regarding his holdings will change soon😊
24 is low valuation, really?
Great video could you talk about Mercado Libre
Are you buying more Amazon?
Yeah. It just sucks I was up 30% at one point and now in the red…
but hey, I’d rather buy at 160 than 200
Apple is a good company to own but to buy right now? Very questionable might as well buy the VOO or QQQ with those growth rates or buy msft instead better growth. All my opinions
You rushed out an bought in Starbucks, how did that work out. Value isnt all it would seem.
Only Intel is a buyer
still buying?
Great video as always
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich.
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts with experience since the 08' crash.
Video came out too early.
Still not seeing the moat for booking holdings.
And if the stock went up instead, would you have made this comment?
@@PDS_37 absolutely, there is no moat here that makes this company different from other travel companies.
@@PDS_37 yes, no obvious moat here.
@@blueskwall it’s the largest travel agency in the world and every accommodation needs to be listed on it. Economy of scale is huge
@@blueskwallI think Joseph’s thesis is that they are already #1 in the world, they are a major player overseas, and there is no incentive for a tech company such as Google to compete heavily with them because they purchase a lot of ads with Google, so Google would have to invest a lot to compete and in the end it would hurt Google if Booking made less money and purchased fewer ads on Google.
you sold BKNG ? its not in you protfolios
Buffett dumped his half of AAPL. Big News the come tomorrow
Intel is just such a disappointing company. I bought the stock many times and i lost money on them every time and got frustrated. I'll never buy them again, i really doubt they will be able to turn it around. It's too complex, too capex heavy, have gotten too far behind, ... i just dont see it.
At this point, INTC is just a hedge against Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
still. Is back to 1990s prices, dividend is gone.
Yeah I analyzed the company a while back and the main point stopping me from buying it is that its too damn complex, so many technical terms and jargon, and it's just not worth my time investing in such a company especially when its future is so uncertain.
@@GreatBombard exactly, let’s keep it simple
He really is fast 😅
Cover CP and VICI'S earnings in some detail, please. I understand that there are not gonna pull the viewers like the popular stocks, but some of your long time viewers have interest. It would be much appreciated
As for now, Intel is misaligned with both customers' interests and shareholders' interests.
I hope they get back to making cool stuff and innovating instead of waiting for someone else to push the things forward
Intel was mismanaged. Will the current CEO right the ship? I am willing to give him 2 more years.
Amazon at $170.... wtf ..
stonks only go up
Yea. In the short term, It had very horrible after-hours performance I see, putting it at about 170 right now. It was at 184 at EOD. I might nibble tomorrow, but something seems wrong here in the short term, which I’ll attempt to understand further on my own.
Kya bakloli hai be. 100-300 Ok thanks mein kaun sa falt milta hai chowdry gyaanchand
Paypal is the new hype ! Don t care about amazon
Apple losing Chinese market to be followed by all Asia as Chinese phones come out cheaper and better....
This is the same fella whos selling apple cpl of months ago? Trimming it? And said intel he considers because if the insider purchases? 😂😂 always with immense confidence the exact opposite of whst he said 3 months prior
Thanks for the work you put in!!
can you review CAVA?
Top notch 👌 this guy's a legend
❤😂❤😂❤I SOLD WHEN JEFF BOZO SOLD❤😂❤😂
Geopolitics can cause bookings in a hard way . Lets Hope it Gets better
great video thanks Joseph
Damp it
For someone who followed computer news, the Intel selloff comes as no surprise.
Intel had been neglect on development when they are dominate, and it had caught up to them. Their products' C/P ratio keep getting worse, and they just using more and more marketing strategy trying to make it looks better.
Then they got hit with 13th & 14th gen processor quality problem.
I didn't see many financial news talk about it, but it's all over the tech news. The 13th & 14th gen Intel enterprise and server class processor had an unnaturally high failure rate. The situation had gone so bad some company are starting to give up on Intel and switch to AMD completely.
INTC's bad performance is not just because Intel "didn't catch the AI surge" like Gelsinger hinted in his WSJ interview. Their non-AI product is also having big problem, and it will definitely hurt their existing market share.
Intel still got the majority of the CPU market, and it MAY bounds back few years into the future when their investment finally show effect. But currently it's in a super unsafe position I won't want to be in. And I'm glad I sold out all my position a while ago with a small profit.
Yeah but Samsung is way better than IPhone, iPhone is Just more simple. I dont see much growth for Apple 😅
There's a few things that Samsung does better but if you're already using Apple computers it's pretty hard to justify buying an equally-priced smartphone that doesn't work as well with your computer.
Any thoughts on M1 charging IRA accounts monthly?
The benefits outweigh the costs😊
Intel = GE.
Intel = Walgreens. @17:38 It is an illustration of Capital destruction. Value trap is correct
I come for the confirmation bias, I stay for the late night cable access channel garage set vibes!
Great lucid content as always🎉
I always check out earnings report before taking a look at the stock price after hours to keep a clear head.
If I'm happy with the report and I see the stock is down 5%, I'm loading up.
Exactly what anyone with smarts would do.