The Downfall Of Amazon Has Started
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- Опубліковано 10 бер 2024
- Sellers are complaining, the FTC is getting involved, are the tides turning for Amazon?
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I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances.
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I'm an Amazon Seller and also a share holder... and of course a customer as well. It's interesting to be in the midst of all sides. What I can say is that most folks don't understand how challenging it can be for sellers. It's very much Amazon's way or the highway and almost always the customer wins in a dispute. You have to just accept it and move on, but you're going to take some hits as a seller. The returns are mind boggling at times and some customers are just plain criminal. They will return anything, in any condition... or something random and you not only pay out of pocket for that "free shipping" to the customer, but also for the "free" return. But don't worry as a share holder, Amazon will keep part of their 15% fee to cover their costs on returns. Now you have to sell a couple more products just to cover the loss on the returns. It can be brutal and it's not for the weak of heart. I'm guessing that prices will increase for the consumer to cover the fees over the next few months and the customers will continue to pay for that convenience.
my buddy's wife will order tons of clothes, try them on, and return like 90% of the order. She does that so often I'm surprised she hasn't faced any consequences.
For a retailer that wants to grow.....selling on Amazon is a flawed business model for 2 major reasons. Your customer data...one of the most valuable aspects of your business is in the hands of a 3rd party - as well as your supplier data. This makes it extremely difficult to craft a compelling ascension model for "your" customer base so you can develop and sell them increasingly higher margin backend products...(the engine of growth for any retailer.) The only reason for a forward thinking retailer to be on Amazon is as a testing ground for product, offer and sales-copy development. And perhaps as a liquidation center.
Why is that a problem? Online clothing stores work all in that way: Zara, Zalando, H&M, etc.
Show me a business model where expectations are zero returns. Obviously thats an extreme example, but what is the X number of returns where a seller is happy?
@@kianfarahani for me personally it’s not the number of returns. Of course they are to be expected. My biggest complaint is that Amazon doesn’t enforce their policy to customers. It clearly states you have to return the item in new condition with original packaging. But we get very used items back, no packaging, missing accessories, etc. The customer gets an instant refund & after we receive the product back we have to file an appeal with Amazon. If it’s approved you get 50% of sale amount back, but that’s the best case scenario & too often it gets denied without any explanation. 🤷♂️🤦♂️
The 3rd party sellers have nowhere to go...this is a big nothing cake.
They sell junk to us too. They just want to keep selling cheap junk 1 by 1.
Except to fold, depleting Amazon's store, no? Or to cut their costs by providing less quality products.
The 3rd party seller community has voiced a different perspective.
3rd party seller here. Closed my store on Amazon and haven't looked back. Not worth the hassle, constant threats, scammers or potential theft of intellectual property.
@@chichi3701bye bye 👋
Amazon doesn’t give a f
Amazon was losing money, their profit comes from AWS.
Down fall Amazon just means buy the dip
I am an Amazon advertising manager and have been managing millions over the years.
The other differenece of FBA and FBM is that FBA is prioritized on search results greatly. So algorithm is actually forcing you to go FBA if you want to succeed in most cases. (especially on the small-mid sized products)
The other thing is even though you considered advertising as "not a fee", it is 99% a must if you want to keep up with the competition. So without ads, there are no sales. Just giving some clarity on details.
But great points on your end - especially by the end of the video :)
As a customer of Amazon I've noticed things changing recently. For a long time they had the best variety, selection and prices on items. Lately though, that no longer seems to be the case. Prices are up a lot and selection seems to have gone down.
I have noticed this too.
Such a terrible selection of cheap and expensive products.
I do know what I am looking for on Amazon, so it's no big deal for me.
But for others? They will buy whatever Amazon's algorithm places in the first few places at the top.
Oh well, one has to be an educated consumer.
As an American seller I can no longer compete price wise with Chinese sellers. By the time my new product launched last month the market became flooded with Chinese sellers who offer lower quality products.
I actually just canceled my Amazon subscription last month. I realized I wasn't utilizing the service because I could just get things I needed cheaper and faster at Walmart. Really, the last thing keeping me tied to them was the thought of losing my music algorithm. I already pay for UA-cam premium which comes with a music app. I was throwing away money on a service I didn't use. Though, I know most people aren't as frugal as me and the sticky is tough to get off. I still own AMZN.
😢 continue
😮😮
As an Amazon shopper, I only purchase items with 2-day shipping. I'm sure many feel the same way. Either way Amazon sellers lose. They either pay more in fees, or they pay in having less sales while also having to do more work. As someone who also sells full time on eBay and does all of their own fulfillment, I see this is a big loss for sellers. Amazon has proven to me to be no better than other storefronts. 90% of the time I can find cheaper prices on eBay or other platforms. Amazon reviews are also an enormous issue.
Me too, I only ever consider quick shipping items. I don't even remember when I bought anything from eBay last, all because the quick shipping and effortless returns.
Great insight into the business. Thanks very much Joseph. Interesting to read some of the comments too. What about consumer sentiment over fake goods and quality? It goes on but is it a factor?
Maybe this puts an end to the „Order on Aliexpress, Resell on Amazon“ / Dropshipping Epidemic of the last years … so maybe not THAT bad?
that business model has been dead on Amazon since 2019 - unfortunately, Amazon will just become Aliexpress with 2 day shipping and more expensive products. Not sure why you think that would be a good thing. By killing the margin for sellers, they'll also kill anyone willing to innovate and create value for consumers. Net loss for consumers and Amazon long term.
Awesome.. hope to buy more AMZN shares at a discount.
This analysis shows you’re always critically analyzing your holdings. Good work, Joseph!
He is been sarcastic here
Financial planning is like navigation. If you know where you are and where you want to go, navigation isn't such a great problem. It's when you don't know the two points that it's difficult
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I was going solo, but it wasn't working. I've been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommend Mr Brian Nelson. I met him at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
Sounds interesting. I was planning to invest some few £ in some coins, stack them up and leave them for a few years, but seeing this changed my mindset. Thank you very much
I worked in an Amazon Fulfillment Center for 7 years. One thing that drove me nuts was my co-workers going on and on about deserving more money because they made so much money for the company. People refused to believe that we weren’t making Amazon money, nor was the fulfillment network driving the stock price. The day has long been coming when Amazon tried to at least break even on order fulfillment.
What you said is true, but even if Amazon's fulfillment network was highly profitable your co-workers logic would not make sense.
This is not how value of employees are measured. Your value is measured by how difficult you are to replace and how expensive it is to train someone to do what you're doing, it's NOT measured by how profitable the underlying business you're working for is.
A front desk person that got trained in two weeks that works at a Ferrari dealership is not more valuable than a surgeon because the Ferrari dealership makes more money. The surgeon is more valuable because their skillset takes longer to learn and they're far more indispensable.
To increase your value (and therefore compensation) you need to do something that requires a more specific skillset that less people have and that has significant demand.
Were you a T1 the entire time!? If so that’s brutal. Took me 3.5 years to get to L4H. I hated being a T1.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Agreed. I made many of the same points as well, earning the title “corporate boot-licker” for my trouble. Working in an FC requires a HS diploma and 4-5 hours of training, and Amazon’s turnover rate makes it clear that almost anyone can do the job. Nevertheless, people regularly insisted they deserved $30/hour because Jeff Bezos was a billionaire. The real irony is that Bezos got rich off his stock options, and almost everyone sold their shares as soon as possible. Mine are worth about $100k now, accumulated over 5 years.
@@NickOloteo Yep. I retired in my 40s, got bored in my 50s and took a job there as a picker for something to do.
What up, fam? @@NickOloteo
That's a pretty good breakdown. There is one issue I have with your analysis though. As a seller on Amazon, the main reason I use FBA instead of FBM is because FBM sellers cannot compete against FBA sellers when it comes to winning the all important buy box (the default offer). The only way I can sell products on Amazon using FBM is if I'm the only seller, or there are no other sellers selling the same product using FBA. This has little to do with product price. As an FBM seller, you won't win the buy box against an FBA seller unless you undercut their price by at least 10%. This can vary by product though. Amazon certainly gives preference to FBA sellers because they want to move inventory out of their warehouses.
joseph has no idea how Amazon works from a sellers perspective. He has clearly articulated that in his replies. He just see's "Number going up = good"
I fall in the category of as you described the Amazon shopper. I always cross shop sometimes the difference is not just a dollar or two. Sometimes it is 20% -30%. That being said I do believe that it is the consumers responsibility to seek out the best deal for them and a business can charge whatever they want. I do buy things off Amazon but also Walmart, Target, eBay, and many others I don't consider myself married to a single place to purchase things and I am pretty sure I am not in the minority here. Convenience has a price, but once a line is crossed and consumers feels taken advantage of it is twice as hard to get them back. Any business owner will tell you it is not the one time sale that drives a thriving business it is the return customers that will make you or break you. I am not a Amazon stock holder or any of the above mentioned companies actually, so I have no reason to be biased. Amazon 15 years ago was (at least for me) the place to go, now I find it on Amazon and use that as a base price as I cross shop.
That's exactly how my wife got scammed recently, buying her HOKA shoes on a fake website 🤣. In all seriousness, in recent years, as the only alternative to Amazon, I have found myself buying things directly from the manufacturer's website, but that's only really for specific things, like some electronics, hockey equipment etc. The general stuff, like your kitchen utensils, multi vitamins, cleaning supplies, books, other supplies etc, I've been exclusively using Amazon, and exclusively Prime at that, and I will check if it's fulfilled by Amazon, in the hope of increasing the likelihood of getting a genuine product and being able to return it effortlessly if I need to. I've gotten really spoiled with the level of service and I don't see myself going back, unless my income changes dramatically.
@@AbcDino843your wife is special 😂
I respect that. Everyone has to do what is best for them.@@AbcDino843
Hi Joseph, could you consider to share the links of the things you are commenting on? not just this video specifically but in general.
iI have been a seller on Amazon for a little over 10 years. i would love to get out but I have gone in too deep. A faustian bargain. I could regale with tales of glitches, nonsensical ai decisions, 3rd world ineffective seller support, customer scams, and other obtuse corporate policies. No one cares about that, people just want that box on their doorstep. It has always been like that. A merchant purgatory. When I started, I briefly thought should I buy stock in the company? With all the issues, I concluded other companies can do better than Amazon in the retail space. And they have, but Amazon was first, and that has been enough. Instead of investing in my business I should have put all my money in Amazon stock.
I think you hit the nail on the head, Joseph. FTC doesn't have much of a case, because Amazon isn't forcing their sellers to continue selling through FBA. They outlined their fees and are giving sellers the option to continue through FBA or to ship it themselves through FBM. Honestly, I don't think people have a clue what the costs are to sell/ship items themselves and the fact that Amazon has been and continues to do this for sellers is beyond helpful. That being said, it SHOULD come with a cost/fee because Amazon is doing it for their sellers. Just turns out that the cost is being raised now. Interested to see where it goes, but I think the FTC is out of luck here.
Thanks for your thoughts. I appreciate the reasoning. If you ever get the chance, a break down of stock valuation formulas and how you apply them would be great.
Great deep dive on this topic.
Bring on the dip.
time to buy more!
None of this will change Amazon's dominance. Small and scammy vendors will be pushed out. Oh no. This is getting ahead of the Chinese downturn and removing liabilities at the same time. Makes sense. They are saying, go to etsy with your 3D printed dog dishes.
@@Jack9Chalf of the things you buy from amazon is dropped shipped already
Amen, brotha! Their loss, our gain!!!
Joseph I'm a long, long time fan, and patreon member. I've been selling on Amazon since 2014. If you sell using FBM you are not given the same treatment when it comes to your share of the sales on that specific item. Amazon prioritizes FBA sellers and if an FBA is competing with an FBM it will be 90/10 to FBA. FBM is not a viable solution under the current structure and you can not compete with an FBA seller. Sellers don't use FBA just to save themselves the work and costs of fulfillment, they do it to get the sales. Prime vs Not Prime, which would you buy?
Love watching your channel! Always learn new things, even when I disagree with your opinion or analysis.
Well don't forget, according to Reddit last year, Netflix was going to crash and burn due to their password-sharing crackdown antics. 🤣
Hopefully there will be a Dip, want to buy more. Cheaper is always better. Dont see a problem for amazon. In those situations people always „cry“.
AWS though is providing 90% of the PROFITS, so how is this relevant?
Amazon store sales has absolutely NOTHING to do with Amazon stock.
McDonald's had "Buy one breakfast sandwich, get one free" for a few weeks so I would buy that on my way to work for breakfast. Now it's "Buy one breakfast sandwich get one for $1."
Maybe the FTC can investigate this too, since apparently it's illegal for a corporation to provide something for free and then start charging for it.
The problem with subsidizing fulfillment is that once you take that away, it now becomes an added cost in the eyes of the seller. But Amazon knows this. And that’s why, like a Coke dealer, they gave it away for free in the beginning.
Spot on analysis!!
I recently inherited almost $500k. I REALLY need to make this money work for me, and not just disappear over time. I've been scrambling for somewhere to put the money, where I can make an effort to use the gains to pay bills so I can quit my job . All roads have pointed to the financial market of some sort which is a good idea buh where else should I put money besides the financial market? We have a 13% RPI rate so cash is tough.
Yep great question and that’s always the one - where would you rather be if you have an option. Personally I’m always invested aside from a small emergency fund. Financial-market for me seem the only way forward with my long time horizon (accrued almost $1.4m in gains since 2020 ) but if you don’t have that fortune of time it’s a tough market out there almost nowhere feels safe! . Just know the risk you're comfortable with . Mistake is expensive
very informative, one option I suppose is, if you were to invest a set amount buy the whole share in a ETF and the remainder could go into a index for which would allow you to purchase the fractional shares, is that an option?
well a million in profit is a nice milestone, how did you achieve that? I guess you have a proven trading strategy that you've spent a lot on please share more info !! and YES I dont want to make
I work with Camill e Anne Hecto r. Investing with her has been a different ball game entirely so different from the stale methods of managers I’ve worked with in the past. She has a large following and is easily found onlin e.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I sent her a mail and I hope she gets back to me soon.
I used to buy way too much and too often on Amazon, but I pretty much quit cold turkey in 2nd half of 2023. Feel better, since I only buy what I really need, not compulsive retail therapy. Plus price and selection of items I research seems to have changed for the worse (increase in price, decrease in value and selections).
I always enjoy your POV and thorough analysis 💯
Good stuff Joe
The question for me is how low will it dip, or will it only go site ways for a while.
AMZN' s1st party sales include items AMZN buys and resells (.e.g, originally books) and not just AMZN-branded products (e.g., Happy Belly foods).
I'm curious to see where this is going. If there is a dip I'm buying. If not, well, stonks go up.
Ultimately, the buyers absorb these fee hikes.
The question is how much more are Amazon's customers willing to pay for 2-day shipping?
Wasn't that the whole point of Prime in the first place? To subsidize shipping expenses Amazon incurred?
Personally, I buy my cheap Chinese crap on TEMU. It is half the price even if I have to wait an extra week.
What would happen if TEMU opened up a couple fulfillment centers in the US? They would probably break Amazon's marketplace in a year.
Once again a clear, thorough and understandable video. Thank you 😊
Third party is sometimes ridiculous. One saxophone reed for $150 (you can get 30 or 40 reeds elsewhere for that price) that's an extreme example but a lot of times you have to be careful or you will pay too much.
damn must be a good brand stuff. I just follow your description and check it for fun. There are many brand ranging from 10 to 50.
important video and simply a very good video that shows your knowledge
Is it an impor-ant video or an important video?
WRONG
I think Andy Jassy is really flipping the switches on to make Amazon profitable, which sounds good to me as an investor!
Love that you dissect on why stock prices drop. Thank you!
I believe Amazon is a great company to invest in. I live in a condo and everyday I see piles of boxes delivered to our building. Drive a block out, and you’ll encounter Amazon trucks.
Then there’s AWS that could still have a sizable upside.
So, I say buy the dip and get more for your buck.
Joe this was an absolutely amazing analysis!thank you for the great work! Long AMZN!
FBM is going to decrease sales a lot vs FBA which many customers choose
Amazon absolutely can and deserves to raise prices if you think about the absolutely insanely giganormous access to products at unbelievable expedience and therefore an increased quality of life and lower living expenses for the average person
the worst thing about selling on amazon is not all of the many fees but the fact that theres virtually no support for sellers whatsoever...
I bought Calls.
Still bullish on AMZN. Thanks for cutting through the noise, JC!!
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
Yvette Ruta Musto' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
will take a dip opportunity ^
Great content!
Charging for maintaining low inventory levels.. WTH? Is it ethical?
Top tier video. Very well explained across the board.
Appreciate that review Jeremy
I think that if it became a big problem for Amazon they could very quickly reverse it
Even when Amazon was making less profits, the C suite always made a lot of money through high wages and stock base’s compensation.
Yet, Amazon doubled profits from 2021 - so - ????????
What about the platform, the UI, is it put above sellers who use Amazon's fulfillment service?
Making it unworthy to move away.
Ever heard of too big to fail? That is Amazon...
Ok ok the sellers will leave, to where? Amazon has no real competition in e commerce...
Fees going up are a given quotient. Im sure they have a reliable algorythm that figured out the product this will have the biggest effect. Im sure some of those products Amazon simply doesnt feel its worth dealing with. They have costs on each item they process and ship.
Great video
Great points. People have short memories. For decades investors bore the brunt of Amazon's low prices by chipping in funds to keep it going while low prices kept inflation low in America for the consumer to enjoy. No show of thanks there just complaints when Amazon says "it's time to take some back".
nothing to see here. economy is in a contraction phase (unlike it's shown to us in the news). companies will fight for every penny.
Amazon's free cash flow is irrelevant, it doesn't account for the fact that you're being diluted by $24 billion of stock-based compensation
8:20 basically seller are mad AMZN shareholders are no longer subsiding their businesses, did I get that right?
Classic people getting more benefits from Amazon, and not wanting to pay for it. That’s the new generation.
Amazon should penalize sellers who lie about their stock.
FBA being cheaper than FBM is not the only / main reason merchants use FBA. If 2 sellers have the same price on the same product but one is using FBA and the others isn't Amazon will show the one using FBA first, sometimes the FBA seller can charge more and still be shown first.
Great video once again!!
Nicely researched and presented.
Great Analysis. I am also Bullish.
Amazon holders new video mentions too that customers don’t want fulfill by seller items. They will choose the fast item. Sellers know this
Ah yes indeed Amazon's totally fucked up customer service ,,, I purchased a golf windbreaker. The windbreaker was a terrible fit and had a stitching defect. I contacted customer service and they referred me to the seller they referred me back to Amazon as they ( the seller needed more details ).
I received a message from Amazon advising a credit would be issued and there was no need to return the item. I had no need for this item so I donated it to the local thrift shop ,, matter over and dealt with.
Now I have just received a message from the seller instructing me as to how to return the item to them ( I pay the shipping ). So no windbreaker and no refund ,, just a fifty dollar bill these worthless fuckers at Amazon have ripped me off for ,,, I'm done !!
people i need you to realize Amazon is a huge conglomerate. There are parts of amazon making 100B thats not the marketplace. Amazon is going to be strong for the Next 50 years at least
great video
you know, i'll think crazy this time, say, what if the sellers of amazon unionize and suddenly amazon loses even more money from his service?
Yeah record HIGHS for Amazon in 2024. Watch. How much more they making with the ads on their streaming ?
The Cutsomers will not even flinch.
Does everyone realize that all customers pay more when you return items? So many comments on here talk about returns. If you want to pay less, research what your are buying.
I agree. It's mostly the hassle of return and the time lost when you have to return an item (and wait for the alternative). However, no-questions-asked-free-return policy is the #1 reason I buy online vs. retail store. Sometimes any time of research won't remove all doubt that you may have about a product.
Sellers can leave but where they’re going? The customers are still over here….
I agree. Sell more puts!!
The only problem with amazons defence against the fbm argument is that their algos are trained to push fba, which gives fbm sellers a huge disadvantage
If the FTC opens a lawsuit, Amazon will need to show how FBA is priced competitively versus FBM. If FBA is priced at >20% premium to FBM then it is pure greed by Amazon. Also 70B FCF in 2024 is almost 100% jump from 2023, sounds wildly optimistic.
That is total BS dude
Yeah, i agree with you. The haters gone hate and the ain'ters gone ain't. Can't expect Amazon to make these massive investments in improving the entire business and not reap a fair benefit from it. I think they are undercharging for their services, much like your Patreon value.
Sounds like they are monetizing.
If they leave Amazon they won't exist. Funny how it's cheaper to ship with Amazon and probably a lot easier and they still complain...lol Amazon isn't going anywhere.
Might have got click baited. Not sure
Intriguing critical analysis of an important company. Thank you for the hard work, Joeseph. I won't be selling my Amazon shares (In fact, all of this sounds bullish)
14:55 Exactly! 🇺🇸🙏. I was an investor back then, nothing was easy to get things where they are now. It’s not magic.
Sounds like a lot of these sellers were enjoying Amazon subsidizing their businesses.
Amazon is my largest holding and none of this changes my opinion on it's future.
Very bullish.
Would love an update on Salesforce!
I hope bad news comes from Amzn, will buy even more
Do you think if Amazon made less revenue but got better margins, would it be good for the stock?
No. Declining revenue is a death sentence. That would be so day two.
this feels like netflix cracking down on password sharing. a lot barking but no other option
IT"S TEMU TIME BABY!
Not to mention their quality issue
Sounds bullish to me.