Breakeven Poker Math | Poker Quick Plays
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- Опубліковано 16 вер 2024
- Breakeven % is one of the key formulas needed to understanding poker bluffing at a technical point of view. Practice this concept today, alongside many other math elements, with SplitSuit's Poker Math Workbook: www.splitsuit....
Do you know often your 2/3 pot-sized bluff needs to work in order to breakeven? What about a full pot-sized bluff? If not, this video is a must-watch. SplitSuit shows us how to calculate the breakeven percentage of your bluffs using a simple formula that can be used when making bluff bets, bluff raises, and even bluff 3/4bets. The formula is simply:
Breakeven % = Risk / (Risk + Reward)
Learn how to plug in the numbers with an example, and what the breakeven % actually tells you. SplitSuit mentions using the tool Flopzilla to understand how ranges hit boards, and you can learn how to use that software with our free in-depth video: www.splitsuit....
This video was created by James "SplitSuit" Sweeney for www.thepokerban...
I just came in contact with your videos and must say, its amongst the better ive seen online! really great job mate!
Kevin thanks Kevin!
Niharika Dubey 'villain' is poker jargon for 'opponent' and 'hero' is poker jargon for 'the person who played the hand'
Thanks I appreciate all your content 👍
You're very welcome Joel!
James, this is a really old video but still very helpful and edifying. I had a question: how to apply this math to semibluffs on the flop? If you had a flush draw for 35% equity, is there a way to express that in the math? So you still have your breakeven percentage in a c-bet yourself, while you still have the chance of making your hand as well.
Good stuff! I play in an extremely laggy home game and need to work more bluffs into my game because I'm not getting enough action when I do bet (which obviously can work to my advantage when bluffing, of course), so this breakeven % should help me pick some good spots! Thanks.
So glad we can help. Let us know how the new bluffs work out!
The only flaw with this is that bet sizing often determines fold frequency
You say "we can rightly assume our bet is closer to a bluff than a value bet" but only if he calls. So how can you assume it? Even if the flop is in his range, that doesn't mean he has hit the flop. It just means we should give him some equity, probably less than 50%.
Hi Poker Bank,
Great videos, learning a lot as a beginner poker player and fellow math geek. I did have an elementary question I was hoping you could clarify. The breakeven calculation is only applicable to bluffs one is making, right? How would we determine how many times we are making the correct call when villain bets x amount on the river? I was reading a book and came across this situation (I'll carry on from the river):
Pot is $100, villain bets $110.
My initial reaction was to find the breakeven % via EV calculation:
210(x) - (110(1-x)) = 0, where x is the breakeven % of a call (calculates to ~34%). 210 is the amount we win if we call and are right. 110 is the amount we lose if we call and are wrong.
But if you use breakeven % from the villain's POV, we get:
x = 110/(100 + 110) = 52% which is the % time Hero has to fold for the play to be +EV for villain. Now 1 - villain's breakeven should be our profit, no? (1-52% = 48%)
Here's where my confusion is: the times we are +EV when we call is >33% (according to EV calculations) but according to breakeven calculations, we actually have to be correct 48% of the time.
Which number is correct? Am I missing something or completely off base? Please let me know. Thanks again for your insight.
The bettor and the caller get different odds on their money. A bettor is risking money solely to pick up the pot...but the caller is risking money to pick up both the pot AND the bet.
The Poker Bank Figured I was over-complicating it. Thanks!
Can u just double the pot size or is that just a coincidence? Because 32 divided by 32 =1 , double the size of the pot and u pretty much get 55%
Is this the kind of math that I need to spend time mastering and estimating?
Yes, but it's super easy once you practice with it a little bit since the patterns become easy to parse, memorize, and use!
thanks to you my ev is always positive.i lose a session sometimes but when i calculate my profit im always ahead.can you tell me pls what persentage of profit is acceptable ? if i for example play with 1000 dollars how much should i profit in the end of the month ti be a decent player?
4:32 Why not just divide the Risk by the Entire pot including our bet to make it simpler?
what is the villan?
The 'villan' is typically the opponent of a given hand of poker as used in an example and the cardholder (aka 'you') are the 'hero'. Its' just common poker termonology people use again and again.
How to deal with aggressive regulars who likes to 3bet light IP or OOP. Regs 3bet hand ranges (AJo+, KJo+, AXs, K8s+,88+) Reg cbets half pot or 2/3. Regs usually checks the turn. What should my counter be? Check raise the flop or float and try to steal the turn. What scare card should I bet on? I imagine. I should raise on King high board. float and steal on Ace high board.
+Don Juan In addition, what hand should I continue with? I usually flat with AQ+ and I 4bet shove with a pair when I sense that he's got two overcards. Villain has (3bet 11%)
+Don Juan You could consider doing the 4-bet thingy more OOP and flat more IP. 4-betting gives you the lead in the hand and makes it easier to play it OOP
Thanks mate, but I already know that. What I'm interested is the math.
Oh i get it, u mean 32 divided by58.5
I love math
Hi James. I realy like your content, and i have even bought some of your content. This video is a IMO a key factor to become a winning player. But there is one thing though. I am realy bad at math, but shouldn´t there be a X100 in the calculation?
Thanks! You can multiply it by 100 if .41 doesn't easily translate to 41%, for sure.
Okay, so do we actually visualize the range villain has after we get our BE% and go from there?
i.e., on a board of KT2r, we put villain on a range of JJ-22 (for simplicity) with 100 in the pot. We bet 50 and have a BE% of 33%.
Flopzilla tells us this range hits this board 22% of the time, so our bet is good?
David Nguyen so long as you think he's folding the 78% of the time that he misses, exactly. Find BE, use tools like Flopzilla to confirm if they will fold enough, and fire from there :)
Lol indeed, figuring out if villain will actually fold enough IS and will always be an unknown variable/ skill set all its own.
So this formula can be used even for a quick calculation of fold equity needed in tribet and fourbet situation I suppose?
This just gives you the Breakeven % on your bluff. But for fold equity you'd want to watch this video: ua-cam.com/video/6QDTCIodjaI/v-deo.html
Ok ty James!
At 4:28 u say 32 diveded by 32 plus 55 something , whatever it was is 55%, u sure about that? I mean 32 divided by 32 is throwing me.
I don't quite understand the breakeven. What does the percentage stand for? The % of your enemy's chance to fold? Or what?
The percentage of the time villain has to fold in order to breakeven.
awesome job...
Is that right?
$100 pot, hero half pot bets-$50. Total pot size = $150. Villan gets 50:150 odds -> 1:3.
Isn't that 25%?
Be sure not to confuse the caller's pot odds with the aggressor's breakeven %. I made this video to hopefully explain it: ua-cam.com/video/p8cHEf3hKSQ/v-deo.html
Ah yes, I see. My mistake, I was indeed referring to the aggressors breakeven. Thanks.
hi.
can someone tell me whats the deference between this and the pot odds? they are very similar concepts, aren´t they?
Hey Samuel. This video should sum that up: ua-cam.com/video/p8cHEf3hKSQ/v-deo.html
it does, thaks James
Do you have any sort suggestions for learming this aspects with no brain, (me)
Just keep practicing with it. It sinks in eventually :)
I LOVE SEALS WITH CLUBS!!!!! BTC is the future of poker in America, at least I hope it is.
Err EV? Don't you mean +/- VE?
+Jeffrey Li EV = expected value...that's correct.
please correct me if im wrong, but isn't your BE% calculated by 1/ (POT ODDS +1) ?
if so your pot sized bet gives odds of 2:1 which works out to BE% of 33% not the 50% you said to memorize since 2 out of 3 times adds to 3 and not just a 50/50 split percentage.
There is a difference between betting and calling when it comes to odds. When betting pot, say $20 into $20, your breakeven is 50% = 20/(20+20). When calling a pot sized bet, your breakeven is 33% = 20/(40+20)
I know EVs from pokemon..
Lets say I bet 1$ in a 4$ pot on the flop, that means I have 25% breakeven and he needs to fold more than 25% of the time to make immediate profit, right?
But the thing is, the smaller you bet, the higher the chances that an opponent calls you is it not? So in my previous example its not very accurate because yea this guy fold 25% of the time to cbets but doesn't the small bet increase the chances of him calling thus making it a higher breakeven point?
If you bet $1 into $4, the BE is risk/(risk+reward) or 1/(1+4) or 20%. And yes, the smaller you go the less it needs to work, but also the less it typically will work. So play around with some different sizes and figure out which works best for a given spot =)
oh yes 20% my bad, now this makes sense thanks for the lightspeed reply btw
You're very welcome Christian =)
Let me say this..... If the villian folds, then uve WON the pot and if the villian doesnt fold, then maybe u won the pot, 38%?? 55.5%??? Forget it!
Am i too stupid to understand this?
I’m confused as fuck 🤷🏾♂️
All these 10 year old videos are holding up
That's a huge compliment!