Taiwan: Why the US & China are on collision course for war | DW Analysis
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- Опубліковано 15 тра 2024
- "The Chinese seem to be preparing for a war against Taiwan" says Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. This puts the US and China on collision course for war - with potentially dramatic stakes for the world.
China's President Xi Jinping has vowed that Beijing will "reunify" with the island - if necessary, by force. A large majority of people in Taiwan say they don't want reunification. The United States is increasingly clear that it would intervene to defend Taiwan from any attack.
How did it come to this - and what happens next?
In this special analysis, DW's Richard Walker uncovers the roots of the dispute over Taiwan, in part 1 tracing how the diplomatic breakthroughs of the 1970s between the US and China left unfinished business that has festered ever since.
Part 2 tracks why these tensions have now burst into the open, with accusations of betrayal in all directions. And part 3 projects trends in China, the United States and Taiwan forward into the future to assess where the dispute is heading - and if there is any way of avoiding war.
Leading US authority on Taiwan, Shelley Rigger warns: "I think the danger is greater today than it has ever been before. The US and China are in this spiral of threat and counter threat, and Taiwan is caught in the middle." Retired People’s Liberation Army Senior Colonel Zhou Bo explains the scenarios under which China would use force. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd sets out ideas for a diplomatic solution that he admits both China and Taiwan would "hate." CNAS think tank Chair Michèle Flournoy sets out her bottom line: "The key thing is for Beijing to recognize that if you go to war to seize Taiwan, you lose."
The film includes further interviews with Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu; retired Senior Colonel in China's People's Liberation Army, Zhou Bo; former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd; Center for a New American Security Chair Michèle Flournoy; Enoch Wu of the Forward Alliance NGO; Meia Nouwens of the International Institute for Strategic Studies; German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock; German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck; and Till Steffen of the Berlin-Taipei Parliamentary Friendship Group.
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
04:47 Part 1: Origins
05:58 The "grand chessboard movement"
07:55 The secret mission
09:00 The "One China principle"
10:10 The diplomatic "fig leaf"
11:40 Taiwan isolated
12:40 "Hell, no!"
13:30 Strategic ambiguity
15:00 Diplomatic gymnastics
16:05 "Permeated with distrust"
16:45 Part 2: The Undoing
17:20 Chinese military pressure
18:00 Crossing the "median line"
18:30 Pelosi lands in Taipei
19:30 "The United States provoked China
20:30 Western lawmakers stream to Taiwan
21:20 Parallels to Ukraine
22:00 Preparing Taiwanese citizens for war
23:12 Taiwan’s growing sense of self
24:30 The US keeps the weapons flowing
25:25 PLA modernization
26:00 "We will become as strong as the US"
27:40 The US would defend Taiwan
28:43 "Hollowing out One China"
Part 3: Collision Course?
31:27 "We should not divide the world"
32:40 "There’s no hotline"
33:30 Compromises?
34:20 China’s preparations for war in the 2030s
35:30 "National rejuvenation"
37:37 China’s 3 invasion scenarios
39:30 One thing stands in China’s way
41:00 US focus on semiconductors
42:30 Timelines shrinking fast
43:30 Warnings from Europe
44:26 "Deterrence is the name of the game"
45:03 "America’s intention is to contain China"
46:20 "Taiwan is caught in the middle"
47:20 The front line of the front line
48:30 Asymmetric warfare
49:30 Training for resilience
50:45 Opposition calls for dialogue
51:40 Any chance of a breakthrough?
53:40 How long can the tension hold?
55:10 Taiwan’s greatest hope?
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#Taiwan #China #xijinping
A very good piece of reporting. As a Taiwanese person living in Taiwan, I do wish there were a line or two on how the US or the Western countries might not have come to our aid if it weren't for Taiwan's position in the global supply chain that has developed in the last few decades, semiconductor industry included. As much as we need and appreciate the support, it would be naive to think that these supports are not based on the interests and benefits of individual countries.
I'm very concerned for all you Taiwanese. I can't believe that the CCP is so blinkered as to think you all want to live under CCP rule. But it's as if they have their eyes shut and their ears stopped up. It's time for Western business to look elsewhere to manufacture everyday goods and to stop feeding the Chinese economy. Like Ukraine we will stand with you, but you will end up paying an awful price for the CCP's belligerence.
Well I think the video did a good job explaining how in history the West/ US supported Taiwan all these years. I do agree tho, around Obama or Trump administration, do United States would’ve gave up on protecting Taiwan if it wasn’t for its semi conductors but the foundation is American has shown super
Hey man if you think you can hold off china on your own do that it'll end very poorly buy u can try you're not Ukraine yall are tiny compared to them with NATO's help yall are Done.
But of course, it’s all about self interest in the west and USA is the most hypocritical
IAM A PROUD AMERICAN, BUT AMERICA PUTS ITS OWN SELF INTEREST FIRST.IF THE DEMISE OF TAIWAN IS IN AMERICAS BEST INTEREST, AMERICA WILL LET CHINA TAKE TAIWAN, AMERICA IS THE ONLY COUNTRY, THAT CAN STOP IT FOR SURE.
As someone who lived in Taiwan for 4 years, Taiwanese people and culture is incredibly beautiful, and I wish nothing but the best for them.
And half of them are not interested in independence, 😂 i have been there too
@@cryptohornbill9658 They love independence, I have been there too 😂
They are more interested in freedom and prosperity. That doesn't mean they want independence from China, they want to coexist but not be part of it
The lesson is: Never believe on what Americans say. They are liars.
@@angelamilton5134Not everyone. A small group who has the microphone 🎤. Most people didn’t vote for independence
Why doesn't anyone mention the fact that Taiwan and China can never be reunified simply because
they were never unified in the first place
Just as Washington is part of the United States, Taiwan is also an integral part of China unless Washington becomes an independent country from the United States.
They were unified in an earlier dynasty.
My dear friends from Taiwan please remember wise words from a former United State Secretary of State .
Henry Kissinger said " To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is FATAL " REMEMBER that please
and today it's 10% for the "Big Guy"
There is no proof Kissinger ever said this.
This documentary makes us realize how much we live on such a small planet, everyone's stakes are on a thread that if it breaks, it drags all of humanity down, but at what cost...
Everything
Dude it's almost time for the apocalypse set your DVR
Yup It's like one my favorite songs Keep Talking from my favorite bands Pink Floyd when Stephen Hawking did his famous Commercial in the 90s saying as long as Mankind keeps communicating the human race still has a chance to turn it around no matter how close we get to another catastrophic global disaster like now we face in 2023.
Like some of my family who faught in WW2 so this never happens again unfortunately they now see all the ingredients are again like it was in 1937 only with hypersonic nukes and way more powerful and devastating warfare weapons on terrifying scale never thought possible it's almost incomprehensible to the mass destruction this will cause you think the most disturbing and scary movie in history threads about a nuclear war aftermath and a radioactive ☢️ wasteland on a apocalyptic scale that even surpasses another great WW3 ending of a movie .
On the Beach made in the 1950s.
S0 sad that so many countries are being lead by such self interested people
It is true especially when one engage in '' breaking the thread '' on The Five to Ten or Twenty biggest powers on the globe , as NATO--USA have tried to and encircling Russia and China by USA Foreign Military Bases , numbering over 1000 by 2008 , against UN Charter on the five continents and Oceans in The world !
As a Taiwanese person living in Taiwan, I do wish there were a line or two on how the US or the Western countries might not have come to our aid if it weren't for Taiwan's position in the global supply chain that has developed in the last few decades, semiconductor industry included. As much as we need and appreciate the support, it would be naive to think that these supports are not based on the interests and benefits of individual countries.
TW semiconductors industry is already in the hands of the USA. What else industry does TW have that is worth Americans fighting for? Meanwhile Mainland China is developing their own self reliance semiconductors supply. They will succeed before you know it. I wouldn’t count on the US to come to the rescue. I really doubt the US is capable or even willing to engage a full blown confrontation with China.
You just not know your history we came to your aid back in world war 2
As an American I can tell you and all the people of your great nation. My country has your back. Most Americans stand with the Taiwanese people and your democratic government. China’s only pushing our two countries closer and closer as allies and trading partners making it fruitful for both nations in the near future.
@@pookiesmoochie9121 closer together? You have got to be kidding. Go to the American public and ask anyone of them whether they are willing to go to war with China over Taiwan. Go!Over half of the Americans don’t even know where Taiwan is! They might think they are going to party in Thailand!! 😂😂
@@pookiesmoochie9121 Great nation? Taiwan is not recognized internationally as a sovereign nation. It has always been part of mainland China.
Taiwan should not have to give up their way of life for anyone, and as an American I think we should helping anyway we can. Whether its boots on the ground or simply supplying weapons and technology. Bottom line is no one should have to live under yoke of communism.
America cause most issues and then walk away .,
Just as Washington is part of the United States, Taiwan is also an indivisible part of China. Even if Washington becomes an independent country from the United States, Taiwan will still be an indivisible part of China.
I worked in Taiwan for 4 years building bridges and rehabbing bridges. The people are incredible. It's one of the few places I worked and was well treated. I will not forget.
Now they have to show strength and force 🤷😬
I lived there for one year and loved it. The people are kind and gentle
Rehab's not a word
@@daniel3231995 Repairing roads and bridges is called rehab jobs by the people that do it. (Rehabilitation shortened). Repair could be substituted. Note: On the blueprints, drawings, and legal papers for the bid contract the word rehab is used often. A Colloquial word
Nobody cares
Wow, I feel guilty. Like I found something really cool in the supermarket and walked out without paying. PHENOMENAL REPORTING DW!
Lived in Taiwan 60 to 63 as child. Good part of my life remember great people beautiful spirits.
Henry Kissinger: leaving war and chaos in his wake for a hundred years.
Richard Walker
what beach was that you walked up & down
I love how often Rudd was able to use the term “salami-slice” in one interview
Kevin Rudd is one of the least popular Australian Prime Ministers in history.
The man likes his salami.
Rudd apparently loves salami. That’s why he learnt Mandarin and grew that beard. He loves pork salami in noodles with Captain Birdseye prawn.
@@SimonBrisbane He was certainly better than the last decade of self-enriching puppets of Rupert Murdoch
It takes only one man to change the world and two men to change history.
Benjamin Franklin
It's not about reunification, it's about who gets to control the semiconductor industry.
When was this released? I know it was uploaded a month ago.
Don't think Xi could stand the same humiliation Putin is facing.
Mentioning Putin losing make you a joke
Putin is winning in Ukraine... Dude. Slava rusia. Putin the great from Russian empire. Tsar Putin 🔥🔥🔥🔥
@@tokosepedacandra9668 care to explain why Russia is targeting energy in Ukraine? Is that victory?
@@favourme5122 That is war... That the answer.. NATO bombing Serbia critical infrastructure, nato do the same as Russia did in Ukraine now. 🔥🔥🔥
@@Kellonsbillion but he is though... you guys live in opposite world.
what a good way to spend 56:24 minutes in the afternoon. Thanks for a very informative report. I live in Asia & this concerns me a great deal. Keep up the good work! No war please.
Lalaban kaya tayo kapag sumabog na yan?
Taiwan should not serve as a tool of the US to constrain and harm China if it cares so much for peace and stability. The situation is almost identical to that between Ukraine and Russia. For China and Russia: you hurt me, I'm bleeding, I will stop you... simple as that.
Unfortunately, it will happen.
@@joey3291 wdym? If Taiwan didn't have such good diplomatic relations with the US China most likely would've already invaded them
@@mason3641 Well, if that's what TW believe, then it leaves mainland no choice
Great documentary DW! Keep them coming!
Thank you for the background story. I was familiar but only vaguely. Too bad Putin and China feel so strongly about land. I suppose in both cases these are strategic, and history is a never ending repeat.
There is much difference there, Ukraine has been accepted widely as independant. But Taiwan, still accepted by the world as part of China.
Yea, sad that these already giant countries feel the need to force other well established countries back under their control
Both China and Russia are not doing so well as they like resource wise. Both countries apparently hurting more so economically last few years and decreasing numbers of the demographics pertaining to younger citizens makes it worse.
Taiwan is a part of China 🇨🇳
Just as Washington is part of the United States, Taiwan is also an integral part of China unless Washington becomes an independent country from the United States.
Kissinger wasn’t really interested about Taiwan during those days! He’s more interested by making China join the effort of defeating the Soviet Union! It’s completely different scenario now..
After all, giving up Taiwan in return of defeating Soviet Union was a very great deal for the US at that time.
@@qdelevation8947 Soviet Union collapsing too soon messed up a lot of plans.
No matter what part of the world, in "diplomacy" nobody ever speaks of NO MORE WARS.
As over the centuries it has not been the ideal solution and as humans one would think we should have learned that by now.
"Old men declare wars, young men die fighting it" said once a wise person..
There should be a universal law requiring anyone who advocates or starts a war, to fight in them. Putin has proven this quote to be on point, even in this day and age.
@@neothaka A world with no wars or conflict, how nice would that be. But in my opinion, as long as we have borders, flags, nations, religion, divisive politics, nuclear warheads, and of course the root of all evil, banks, i cannot see that happening as much as i would love to see it before I die.
Note: I included religion in the context of centralised religion like the Vatican should be abolished but anyone can be free to practice their belief in their homes with free will. Blessings from Oz
That would be nice, but I just don't see a compromise here that would be satisfactory; not with Xi in power. It's like a newly married couple that agreed to have children and raise a family. Suddenly, after the marriage vows are exchanged, one half decides that they do not want to have children. Where's the room to compromise?
@@neothaka Do you know the US bombed Yemen recently? maybe you know, maybe you don't know, but mostly, you don't care
If we want NO MORE WAR, why do we still have militaries? In order to have NO MORE WAR, you need to get rid of those existing militaries.
As for all wars,it's all about the resources.
I wish everyone would just get along, end the wars and share the wealth
sounds just like Communism
Having traveled to both countries, China extensively, I find this documentary the perfect primer on relations between the two countries and the dilemma it poses for the United States. Well done.
Corporate America yes, the American people no
Domestic political decay in the US is the root cause. Corrupt and rogue politicians divert attention on their incompetence and failure to fix domestic issues by diverting US voters on imaginary Enemies, serving their masters in Millitary industrial complex.
Taiwan has always been able engage peaceful discussion with China. Sadly, infiltration by foreign agencies in Taiwan is so dangerously deep that such peaceful engagement opportunities are always intercepted, polarizing Taiwanese People. Unfortunately, Taiwan is a chess piece expendable as US sees fit. We are not blind.
If today, Taiwanese voted for peaceful engagement with China, those illicit forces will act string to deter, promoting fear and war mongering aided by its war machine media, interfering with election in Taiwan.
The Chinese have pissed off all the other countries in Asia - especially India. They've repeatedly attack the Indian border. Let them attack Taiwan.
The minute the second largest military in the world knows that China's has a large number of its soldiers in the middle of the ocean, what do you think is going to happen? The Indians are going to sit in a corner rubbing themselves? No, they're going to invade China. The Indian Navy will send its navy into to the Indian ocean to halt all oil and gas, and food shipments going to China from the Middle East, and beyond.
India doesn't care about the situation between Russia and NATO, but China getting carved up like a cake is non-negotiable. China also has an aging population, and the one-child policy means that there's a lot of men with no children coming from them (they don't have enough women to reproduce with to keep the population over one billion). The Chinese population going to be declining sharply. Whether they invade Taiwan (or assist in Ukraine - a long, long distance from China) or not, the fun times for the Chinese are yet to start.
you probably mean 'the relationships between the countries' politicians' - not the relationship between the countries' people. Cause they mostly never met each other.
I bet your country does not recognize TW as a country, wherever you come from. TW is part of CN, that's the official stance of 183 countries (out of 195) and the UN. Check your country's official stance, if it's the US, that's all the better---the US has been playing the two sides of Chinese against each other despite its official stance is one China for its own benefit. Shame on the US on its hypocrisy and evilness.
Wow. This was an amazing documentary report on the Taiwan issue! Thank you DW News for producing this! After watching the video I'd say it's one of the best reports I've watched because it has addressed so much of the nuance and historical events regarding Taiwan!
it can't be that good bro c'mon. you're just obsess with UA-cam.
7:43 capitalist allies 😅. Oh boy back back then taiwan was run by authoritarian dictator 😂.
News and media this time 😂
@@Hayatiu Yep, that was then and this is now. That dictatorship led to what Taiwan is today. Maybe the wording was poor but China's word means nothing after HK.
@@tropicsalt. most irritated words in internet now is freedom,free speech and democracy. Hk is china part and I am not going to come to your home and lecture you how to run your home and family as we have different way of thinking
@@Hayatiu But if we had an agreement between you and me signed based on set timelines, then I would expect a knock on the door if I broke the agreement.
This was made exceptionally well
Great documentary DW! Keep them coming!. Great documentary DW! Keep them coming!.
The craziest thing to do is to offer your homeland as the battleground for proxy war.
if its your homeland than its not a proxy war..... by definition
CCP shill.
不要崩潰 韓粉 你們家蔣介石當年打的可開心了呢
If your homeland is gonna be invaded anyway, what's the difference?
So in your opinion is for the US to mind it own business and let china to reclaim it's lost territory??
I love how the Chinese say people in China want reunification, but don't care about the desires of the province they want to reunify with. All dictatorships are the same kill and take what you want regardless of moral and ethical lines.
Does any Madridista care about the tears/blood of struggling separatists from Calatonia? Sadly, not at all. Not a nice thing to say but that's how this world works.
Of course it cares, but understand the influence of Taiwan current regime, anything related to China is a bad word, anybody who related himself with China is bullied at all level starting from kindergarten. the Chinese soldier who fought ww2 are constantly bullied because they still consider themselves as Chinese. These is no ground for any kind of communication of setup.
China fought ww2, just to free its people from colonism and imperialism, and now, those people were taught China as enemy ever since they were born. It is rather sad than ignorance. of course we care.
If that's how Chinese treat their children in the west, the police will intervene and send the child to a foster family.
Time for the west to fully decouple from China. They are not a trustworthy partner. Let France take America’s place.
How about Nagorno Karabakh ? The west just ignore it.
China , Russia and America must mind their own business and be very happy with what they have . They must stop interfering with other countries .
Very detailed and informative, thanks
You are one of the few News Channels I have any faith in .
Thanks for sharing
Excellent documentary.
One of the best if not the best programme about this subject.,,,,,, Bravo!
use a profile picture bro whats wrong with oyu
Lmao, the video waits until the final 4 mins of an hour long video to point out how China lied about it's intentions in HK and their coup they launched there. It also spends way too much time giving a former PLA a platform to spread CCP talking points. It's not a bad video but it's not critical enough of the CCP or really the US for that matter. It just lets everyone say their talking points without critically analyzing those point's validity...
@@plsdonttttt Why does _he_ (or she) have to?? You don't have one...simplistic curiosity?? 🤔
This US marine already predicted it.
Happy New Year.
Thank you to everyone who has helped support this channel in every way - translations, donations, helping to share and spread this information - all of it makes this possible.
Things to look out for in 2023:
- Western escalation in Ukraine with Poland & others possibly entering into the conflict as Ukraine's forces crumble;
- US escalation toward China directly;
- US meddling along the peripheries of Russia and China (regime change operations);
- The continued rise and evolution of multipolarism;
I will continue keeping an eye on all of these topics and more throughout the year to come.
-The New Atlas channel
🍻
@@plsdonttttt iiiiiiii
Taiwan: "Please don't let what happened in Ukraine happen to us. We enjoy our democracy and freedom."
I thumb you up to point out: the land size of Taiwan is 5.69% the land size of Ukraine. You just don't know about it. Think about it now.
don't worry taiwan , China won't take more than 24 hours to welcome you home , given how spineless your people are ..
but of course , your daddy America will be even more spineless (in addition to shameless) and will not dare taking on China because of you
Iraq also enjoyed american democracy
@@hariskhan-xj4wk Ah, look, another Chinese bot. So many of you in the comments.
@@hariskhan-xj4wk there's plenty of examples of success as well, Iraq and Afghanistan were monumental debacles of multiple administrations who had no post combat invasions.
What a messed up world we've all been born on
How about disarming governments for a change.
This was so informative and helped shed light on such convoluted and deep-seated issues. Great video!
nothing is convoluted nor deep-seated. it's like your property is occupied by your divorced partner who doesn't have title on the property, you need to evict them but they not only stayed and try to claim they have the rights to stay, and your nosy neighbor got involved and telling both sides they are on their side.
Viewers are more interested in finding out whether Taiwan can survive if China decides to invade the island. With Ukraine in mind America needs to know that China IS NOT Russia. The PLA won't be anything like the Russian forces in Ukraine; it is more lethal. Also, Taiwan's survival -- if it survives -- depends on direct American engagement. That is, US boots on the ground shooting back at the Chinese. Any other formulation and Taiwan will be lost.
Well done and balanced. Thanks....hopeful to visit Taiwan in the next year.....and looking for peaceful paths along the way.
Just as Washington is part of the United States, Taiwan is also an integral part of China unless Washington becomes an independent country from the United States.
As an American, I hate how precious administrations screwed the pooch on Taiwan, just to try and get a deal done. But IMO right is right, and in our support for Taiwan and actually saying what we stand for in defense of Taiwan, better late than never.
Get ready to be drafted big boy
Thank you for your support. We are glad the US is turning around.
how about don't meddle in other country affair.
Tbf previous taiwanese administrations have also screwed the pooch. They woefully under purchased air defenses and their military is still based around defending against a 1990 china
Taiwan is same as Ukraine
I want to thank you for an excellent video ....keep it up ..
As I grow older, I realize that all past wars have been a chain of events triggered by usually a single man, as a result of greed. History repeats itself.
America is the most greedy nation on the planet. There are no "good" guys in this power game.
Finally a better balance overview on what happens. Because it talks about history.
please never relent you all deserve freedom self respect Australia loves Taiwan
Rather dead than red.
Fig leaf should be olive branch, I think? Fig leaves cover privates on sculpture; while an olive branch is a token of peace. Besides that very small detail, very interesting history.
Well Rounded Documentary, very informative and Impartial from the interviewer, letting the people tell their side of the story and providing facts. I hope you continue informing us in the same way. Very Good.
what facts were presented?
Finally I got the picture. Thanks for this great report.
The report doesn't explain that during the chinese civil war, the republic of China was ruled by a dictator who doesn't allow other political parties and US was supporting dictatorship throughout Asia for its benefit
generous with your praise of this documentary but viewers are more interested in finding out whether Taiwan can survive if China decides to invade the island. With Ukraine in mind America needs to know that China IS NOT Russia. The PLA won't be anything like the Russian forces in Ukraine; it is more lethal. Also, Taiwan's survival -- if it survives -- depends on direct American engagement. That is, US boots on the ground shooting back at the Chinese. Any other formulation and Taiwan will be lo
Just a scratch , it is quite deeper than presented.
Why can't the world just get along? Right now the war is being started because of the chips.
Didn’t John Pilger call this a few years ago?
I now have a deep urge to salami slice something.
Must be an Australian saying, because I don't know what that means.
Ummm.. salami slices…
"Divide and conquer" the old strategy all the european colonizers used to colonized others.....how britain colonized a big country like bharat (india)?
No wonder US and europe tried to divide the world, its easier to control them if they are small and divided
Yummy salami slices...
I swear to the higher power, after the third time I heard "salami slice," I sliced several sections of the Hebrew National beef salami that was in my fridge and ate them with relish.
DW has become my favourite source of news in the last year. Great upload!
I agree, I love DW News!!!
You’re right, it’s taken the place of bbc
Yup It's like one my favorite songs Keep Talking from my favorite bands Pink Floyd when Stephen Hawking did his famous Commercial in the 90s saying as long as Mankind keeps communicating the human race still has a chance to turn it around no matter how close we get to another catastrophic global disaster like now we face in 2023.
Like some of my family who faught in WW2 so this never happens again unfortunately they now see all the ingredients are again like it was in 1937 only with hypersonic nukes and way more powerful and devastating warfare weapons on terrifying scale never thought possible it's almost incomprehensible to the mass destruction this will cause you think the most disturbing and scary movie in history threads about a nuclear war aftermath and a radioactive ☢️ wasteland on a apocalyptic scale that even surpasses another great WW3 ending of a movie .
On the Beach made in the 1950s.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
nice documentation
Great comprehensive story - thanks!
Yes it is well done and fills in some gaps in our knowledge, but it is still a mistake to stab your friends in the back.
I got my degree in history a few years ago. A course that I had to take is current world history. A big part of that course was U.S. Sino relations. I think we studied them for a month. U.S. China relations are too complicated and nuanced to talk about in a 50 minute video and a UA-cam comment. If you have a month we will discuss them. I am disabled and have a lot of time on my hands. This video talks about China invading Taiwan as a given inevitability. It may, but it is not a given. China's military is about as corrupt as Russia's. In peacetime this corruption does not really matter. When you go to war it does. Russia has not done well in Ukraine. A lot of this can be chalked up to the corruption which China has a big problem with. Xi has to be thinking about this. To invade Taiwan it will take around a half million troops. China only has the military sealift capacity for about 25,000 troops. Let us say that China can get those half million troops there. It then has to supply those half million troops. Taiwan has a monsoon season that lasts about five of six months in the Spring and about five of six months in the Fall. If Taiwan does not fall within that one month, China has half a million troops in Taiwan that it can't supply. If China invades Taiwan, Japan and Australia will undoubtedly get involved too. Taiwan is only about 60 miles from the southern islands of Japan and Taiwan is critical to Japan strategically. Australia seas China as a giant threat in that region. India and Vietnam both hate China. They might take advantage of a weakened China. To top this off Taiwan might object to being invaded and put up a fight. China might invade Taiwan, but these are all things Xi is probably thinking about.
Ultimately, China's best bet for taking out Taiwan is isolating it. However, that would mean that the main war for Taiwan shall not take place in the Amoy Strait, but in the US House of Representatives.
If America will come to Taiwan's defence, then Beijing will simply seek to find ways to lobby, pressure or manipulate American voters into ditching Taiwan.
However, the probability of China using Taiwan, to distract the public can't be discounted either. And then there's the question if they will be pushed so deep into a corner that they feel they have no choice but to invade at any cost.
Also Australia is working on becoming a centre for nuclear submarines. They could be quite useful in that part of the world.
Taiwan is China's unfinished civil War. It'll be finished regardless of what USA think.
You know almost nothing about China,hilarious but it's fun to learn the view from ignorant 😁
Your assessment is right. Landing troops in Taiwan is not easy nor establishing supplies. Plus single parents in China wont like to see their own child dying because of Xi's ego.
Hi I enjoy watching these but the VERY repetitive background music goes on for far too long and becomes distracting.
Now if they would stop sending balloons here
this has to be one of the best documentary on the cross-trait issues, I have watched so far
Thank you for a long form view on the US/China/Taiwan conflict.
Why did you not incorporate the latest directives to decentralise from the Chinese mainland?
Man just can't seem to get it together, peace is a beautiful thing.
Nothing like waking up and this is the first UA-cam video on your home page
I love DW. This was so very well written and put together. The beginning was especially interesting because I never understood how they got to the one China policy.
This place has been a Chinese Island from the year of 2070 BC and the local people are descended from Chinese. It has always been apart of the China. Maybe you just need to learn some world history.
US and China this is now the best British agent speaking to you. Don't use nukes or i will reprimand you both.
What a mess..
Very informative and crucial to analyze the Taiwan- China senario that could impact the whole world if not meticulously handled.
Take Van already impacted it
The only way to keep the One China international policy is: the PCCh is a terrorist organization and should be removed of power in mainland China, then the Kuo Ming Tang is the ONLY democratic political organization in China.
Civil organization as Far Lung Gong must be considered under persecution. Also Tibet and Uighur people deserve their own country back, independent and recognized by the International Community and the United Nations Organization.
It all comes down to global domination, every major event that has shaped the world order since the first world war. Global power interests are always behind it and we know which country is the world's superpower since the end of WW2
They will foment war and put their guys on both sides to instigate.
I have one question: what international law does the PRC break if they engage in war with Taiwan?
I mean , the USA broke the principal of independence and sovereignty of UN members by invading Iraq and operating a regime change ;
The Russian federation broke the first two principals and also the principal of territorial integrity by invading and annexing Ukraine ;
But the People's republic of china , what principle would they violet?
Taiwan is officially recognized by only a handful of country , they don't have a seat at the UN , and the vast majority of UN members recognize the PRC , lead by the communist government in Beijing as the "true china" and that Taiwan is only a part of its territory .
So what would make china wrong to do that?
The clipping effect used constantly between scenes is annoying. Otherwise informative reporting.
In a game of nuclear war who gets the instigator penalty?
absolutely brilliant video (I'm a Brit living in Taiwan)
@@ningjing1113 haha Chinese right? Very glad I don't live there - I've been to Shenzhen, it is completely lawless and corrupt
@@fillrobs7726 lol 😅white🐷
@@ningjing1113 why not?
@@clairehanna9662 say that to his face, you vile little racist. But you wouldn't.
Me too. It's a great country. 👍
Great history in this video, much better understanding of todays tension.
I like how a woman said you guys are not acting peacefully this is something important
Excellent piece, however I caught the segment when a PCR representative said that they will become as strong as the United States in the near future while spending less than half on the military each year. interesting
It has been a while since I washed a documentary this good 👍🏾.
Thank you Richard 😊🤠
Cleaned it up good..huh?
@@John-nd4fu Very good. LOL...seems nobody proof reads anymore.
Taiwan deserves to be free and independent from interference from China.. Let those people live and prosper
Tell the United States to give this land back to the Native tribes and let them live in peace
@@GBULL1982 Tell the Han Chinese to give land back to the Outer Mongolians and Uyghur people of Xinjiang and let them live in peace.
@@gerardw.7468 They might once the European gives back the Native Tribes their land and get out of Africa as well. A thief can’t tell another thief to stop stealing
Why can't the US do the same with Alaska? Let Alaska be free!
@@GBULL1982 So China is a thief now huh. Nice of u to confirm that for us :)
I didn't know Keanu does the journalism
Why can't we all just get along? This saying be be true for every country, "walk 🚶♂️ quietly and carry a big stick"
VIVA TAIWAN!! THE GREATEST PLACES WITH THE MOST BEAUTIFUL ASIAN PEOPLE!!!
Thank You Richard. Very well done. You have an hour of things all Americans should know.
I couldn't agree more Brotha. Subscribed after only watching the first 5 minutes or so.. You won't see/hear such important and informative information on CNN or The History Channel 👍👍..
Salute from Detroit 👌👌..
Thank you for the long form content
We need Taiwan
It's hard to imagine the world's two largest economies going to war.
Wow... this woman is a brilliant curator of facts. Will definitely be searching for more of her work
她实际上只是个非常无能的人。欺骗台湾民众获得选票，现在大部分台湾人看到了她伪善的一面，不再相信她，所以大部分人更愿意相信国民党。与此同时，美国不愿意看到这样的结果，所以美国要胁台湾政府。用以对抗中国大陆
She's actually just a very incompetent person. Defrauding the Taiwanese people to get votes, most Taiwanese now see her hypocritical side and no longer believe her, so most people are more willing to believe in the KMT. At the same time, the United States is unwilling to see such a result, so the United States threatens the Taiwan government. against mainland China
Now I understand these issues. Thank you so much 💓
Great documentary
26:00 over the years China keeps on saying that they are weak and should not be afraid of, It's the first time they said that they are Strong. This implies that they are almost ready for military action.
Peaceful reunification, Hong Kong sort of proved how hollow a dream that is. The Taiwanese people would lose.
Superb analysis
Right, couple of police holding off riots is the same with having their homes blown away.
@@hasaki_oce4611 eh ?.
Imagine your kids got taken away from you and raised by your enemies and now you have found your kids and wants to take back custody but now your kids no longer recognize you as their parents
Are you referencing that to Taiwan?
So what are you advocating then? Handcuffing your kids to a pipe in the basement? That’s abuse, and thats exactly why Taiwanese don’t want to be part of China.
@@catc8927 people in China aren’t living in cages. A majority are compliant because it’s all about maintaining social order for a better future. Also, China don’t want USA to keep selling weapons to Taiwan as a military base because this will start a bloody devastating war. Wake the f up.
I really appreciate your video, which brings attention to this important topic. As an ex-Taiwanese special force operator, I will fight to my last breath to protect our democratic ways of life and my children.
Please remember that we're not just some "remote island". If we fall, the first island chain breaks, and Taiwan strait becomes Chinese controlled. From the east coast of Taiwan, China will then be able to send its nuclear submarines to the Pacific without the US knowing it, and the whole west coast of the US will be under the fire range of their submarines. Japan and Korea may also have to bow to China because most of their energy supplies and trades go through the Taiwan strait. US influences will be significantly weakened, and most likely the US dollar will collapse as a result.
If you think carefully, we are more like a gatekeeper of the free world.
LOL, we were playing both sides of the field
This was an incredibly well researched, balanced documentary...thank you for posting.....
Geography:
Communist Seal evident in China map
Hammer handle facing North Korea
About to swallow North Korea
About to pierce North Korea
Hammer Head facing south
Above India
Inflate Communist China flag 🇨🇳
and
See the RED two (2) eyed beast
with eight (8) horns
dragon's genital
protruding facing Hainan Island
Taiwan will be taken by force to COMPLETE the second eye of the dragon
Two(2) face dragon
1.about to swallow North Korea
2.about to swallow the Lion
Philippines the Lion
Manila and Luzon FOREHEAD
Palawan Island SNOUT
Panay Island the EYE
The Lion with Three (3) Stars
The Official Seal of the Office of
The Philippines President
Scripture:
Revelation 12:4
'about the dragon'
and in
Revelation 12:16
'the earth opened'
Balanced? Pretty far from. They are not even touching on the fact that USA are acting like a world police and is meddling in affairs that is not their business what so ever, anything outside their own border they should not give a f**k about. USA is hardly saints themself.
@@heww3960 What other nations do or don't do is beside the point, in that, this posting was about Taiwan...thanks for the comment
@@marcboblee1863 It is not balanced just because they have a soft and calm narrative. What make this video balanced? The viewpoint was pretty onesided.
@@heww3960 I heard clearly, the position of all sides...plus those who preach calm and moderation... viewing and hearing can be subjective depending on ones own opinion before watching...its what humans do... unfortunately... appreciate the further comment..
very good summation of the issues - balanced and objective
The desire of China to annex Taiwan seems difficult to achieve. Taiwan, for almost a century, has been enjoying the democratic way of life. It will be revolting to them to be compelled to be placed under communist rule. They are used to enjoying all lawful freedoms. Merely personal opinion.
Sure hope so
All correct. Were I a pessimist, I would say that it was obvious that it'd develop this way since Kissinger.
Freedom over false security.
Freedom over the illusion of safety.
Freedom over peoples feelings.
This is what I would choose.
Background music through the whole documentary, really bad, really annoying
9:40 is deeply incorrect. PRC is not intending to resume its territory to the height of Qing dynasty. The height of Qing dynasty included many current countries in central Asia like Kazakstan, as well as Mongolia, the outer Manchuria, which is now part of Russia. It's constitution claimed the territorial are is 960 million square kilometers. On the countrary, the ROC (Taiwan) constitution still includes Mongolia, which is 1142 million square kilometers.
Why is the CCP so worried about their "one china bs" when they lost part of Manchuria to Russia? Why don't they start with invading Russia first to get that back?
Nice reporting! Thanks DW!