🔍 Semi-Final 2 Running Order ANALYSIS | Eurovision 2024
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- Опубліковано 22 тра 2024
- I analyse the running order for Semi Final 2 of Eurovision 2024 and how it could impact who qualifies for the final
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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:37 what do columns mean?
1:51 Malta
3:00 Albania
3:37 Greece
4:51 Switzerland
6:19 Czechia
7:30 France
8:49 Austria
9:47 Denmark
11:26 Armenia
12:15 Summary of 1st Half
13:10 Latvia
14:28 Spain
15:14 San MArino
16:31 Georgia
17:33 Belgium
18:30 Estonia
19:45 Italy
20:37 Israel
21:10 Norway
22:27 Netherlands
23:46 Summary of 2nf Half
24:41 Zoom Out
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The Netherlands will possibly be one of the best closers we've ever had with the hardstyle part and then ending on the outro.
It will be very hard to top Finland closing the 1st semifinal last year, but you're welcome to try ;)
Italy 2015 finale was amazone. Masterpiece song
Really feel it'll be on par with Käärijä closing sf1 last year. It's gonna be epic, can't wait 😍
He will win the tele in the semi and at the final sure. Not sure about the juries tho
@florenna I initianally thought you meant Windows 95, but after I picked myself from the floor laughing, I realised you meant Käärijä… well, fair enough 😂
It is a bit of a missed opportunity putting 11:11 in slot 11...
why didn't they do this 😭
Thanks Tom for the quick, realistic and positive analysis! I've noticed that a lot of the analysts tend to lean quite negative/pessimistic, so your positive vibes are a breath of fresh air. I'm always looking forward to your videos ❤.
- I know Aiko has improved her vocals but being in between Slimane and Nemo who are vocal powerhouses, it may hurt her
- Quite sad about Latvia, Georgia, and San Marino's slots - the 3 countries that struggle the most to qualify were all put together at the beginning of the half.
- On the bright side, Switzerland have a great history of qualifying from the 04 slot! Both Luca Hanni & Marius Bear did it!
- I think they did a great job of separating Armenia and Greece - part of me wants to believe that Armenia was put later because they were in the 02 slot last year, and Greece closed their semi half. But based on other positions, I'm not sure they care that much about previous slots.
"Not worried about Estonia" wish I could say the same! agree with you, the mess has to get a bit more organized to completly transfer the fun of the song to people who don't know it already (thats the big difference between eesti laul & eurovision, but i think they know)
Well keep in mind that I said if they do the Eesti Laul show, they’re in a lot of trouble. So saying not to worry is working on the basis that they clean this up and elevate a lot 😂
yeah i agree! my other hope is that a lot of people who usually watch eurovision but this year they do because of joost will like it as well and vote for it. good points from latvia, norway and denmark plus a few points from here and there should be enough, but it will be close (8th-12th)
Latvia and San Marino don't get any help while people who don't need help get good slots....
Yea that was the same in semi 1. There’s not much charity here
At least Spain will perform before San Marino so maybe San Marino could receive points from Spain
Indeed. Eurovision is becoming a farce. The Eurofans pick their favourites, and the organisers rig it in their favour.
@@pedacinhodegente629But that’s only from one country. San Marino needs more countries to vote for them to secure qualification.
I'm surprised you don't find it extremely strange that Greece and Switzerland are right next to each other. These songs are the most out of the box. I was completely sure that they would have to separate them. Why do the producers want one crazy song after another and especially at the beginning?
Exactly. They both have very similar chaotic flows and obviously needed to be spaced as far apart as possible. I genuinely believe even Armenia would’ve been better to be beside Greece than Switzerland. They seem to be obviously sabotaging both of them at once by putting them together.
@@isimerias Yes! But why would they want to sabotage 2 songs, which are quite high in the odds? That's so weird.
@@ely03cassandra anyone’s guess is as good as mine :/ we could ask the same about why they keep sabotaging Serbia. perhaps it’s as Tom suggested and they’re not impressed with staging. Maybe they think they’ll qualify either way (I doubt it) or maybe they don’t think they stand a chance with juries in the final. Maybe they literally just have favourites 🤷🏻♂️
Greece is more ethnic and takes inspiration from traditional music. Switzerland is more eclectic genre-wise and also offers a drastically different singing style.
Also, if speculation is correct, the staging for Greece is going to be drastically different from anything Switzerland will try to do anyway.
@@isimeriasNo. Armenia is waaay too similar to Greece (the traditional instruments are a dead giveaway to the similarities). Those two needed to be as far away from each other as possible.
as A Dutchie, this is one of the best case scenario's I could've imagined for Joost. They really did him a favour putting him last after Norway.
Omg wanted an esc tom vid to watch whilst eating dinner and this popped up!!! Thanks ❤❤❤❤😂 much love from aus xx
Same here but breakfast ! Perfect !
Well I guess Joost has this semi in the bag; I don't think NL could have asked for anything better than this. I hope Marina and Nemo will deliver live because I desperately want them to qualify.
Thanks love from ARMENIA 🇦🇲
Just subbed, looks like I found my go-to channel for my first eurovision!
❤️
Great video as always!
this video is amazing
There's only one instance that all of the first three songs qualify and taht was the 2nd semi-final of 2008.
I have a take about 3rd and 4th. Both Greece and Switzerland are sure qualifiers so the producers probably wanted to turn the "death or worst slots" facts around and put strong songs on those slots. I refuse to accept that both countries staging was bad. It simply can't be true...Nevertheless this semi will be a bloodbath. Too many good songs. Good luck to all!
Thank you very much for your analysis Tom. I am a bit surprised to see Switzerland so early in the show. I knew it that Malta is gonna open the show seems logical to me : fun and uptempo. I think Belgium my country has a good spot. Mustii is still working very hard on the staging to give an amazing show, he will play with the camera too I think being an actor hahaha 💥❤💯💯👍👍
Serbia in 2022 was given 3rd slot and won the televote
thats true
With Malta, the difference between the combined and televote only results (2010 - 2022) is really big actually, as they were in the televote top 10 in the semi only in 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2021 while juries always had them in their top 10 (saving them so many times) except 2022.
If Switzerland Qs I really hope they get a good placement in the GF!
Joost we love u❤
Your explanation for Denmark's placement totally makes sense to me !
I think Czechia and San Marino are gonna compete for that one final spot since they both have a pop rock song. Like you said, San Marino has a better spot so more chance to qualify.
Failte from Las Vegas. As always, love your analysis Tom! Would love to hear your thoughts on the elephant in the room - will or can the Swedish organizers, do anything about booing from the audience? This is a special event for them (50th anniversary etc.) and I don't think they want their party to be soiled for any reason. 🤞
Yeah idk… it definitely feels like they’re punishing Greece and Switzerland for being out of the box. Make me feel a little panicky inside because despite being so high in Eurovision score, nobody really knows how they’ll be received by casual voters.
I agree. I don't think either Greece or Switzerland are perfectly safe qualifiers. They both HAVE TO nail the presentation. Any mistakes can be lethal.
Those challenging and progressive structures of flow they go with DEMAND visual support or the whole thing sinks in a wild sea of chaos.
The Greek official video is investing in a dense and tense stream of visuals which keeps the particles connected in rush. If the staging allows any gap of pace or tension, the particles will fall apart and the whole suggestion will completely lose its punch.
The Swiss official video is super-solid and slick perfection of technicalities and aesthetics. Any flaw in the live can expose the whole thing as a mess.
Both Greece and Switzerland are playing for all or nothing. Either they perfect their presentations and go straight for top5 (or at least top10) in the Final or any flaw can even cost them the qualification.
@@Crowleastotally agree here. I’m surprised Tom didn’t notice how bad it is that these two are one right after the other. It’s really going to sabotage both of them as well…
We can already see an effect in the odds where Nederlands and Switzerland just switched places (tho it’s hard to separate which placement has more effect since nederlands is also being boosted by being the closing performance)
@@isimerias yes, i have noticed that NL went 1 place up, i have a feeling by the May they will be second in the odds 🤣, i knew we will go down in the odds and italy will get that number 1 spot, thank God. But its weird that all this is happening in this 2 days. Also, greece and swiss will go to the finals no mather what, they are both favorites to win.
@@Crowleas Both Greece and Switzerland are 10000% safe qualifiers from any spot of the SF
I've been waiting all morning for this video😂❤
Netherlands - 99% semifinal winner. Latvia, I'm so sorry 😢 Georgia 50/50, Austria - the same. Albania - not this time, girl, Malta - bordeline but rather I'm sorry, not this time. Switzerland/Greece "combo" is concerning - two experimental songs back to back. Possible poor end for one of them or both. Estonia - I hope they'll stand out somehow. Denmark, Denmaaaark - borderline Q/NQ. Armenia - more on the Q side. Belgium - almost sure Q. Israel - almost sure Q. San Marino - kind of a wildcard. Norway - almost sure Q. PS. Forgot about Czechia - well, borderline Q/NQ.
austria 100% Q
Belgium or Greece Shock NQ
my biggest shock was greece 2018...a so beautiful song and good in the odds and dann NQ🥹
The only time the first 3 all qualified, the number 2 slot performer, Charlotte Perrelli, was saved by the Jury Wild Card qualifier because she only got 12h in televote. But it technically has happened that the first three all qualified. 😆
The last time both the 2nd and 3rd performers qualified in a semi was in 2015 though. Face the Shadow by Genealogy and then Rhythm Inside by Loïc Nottet. Armenia really work their magic from 2nd position. :o
Also, I see the Scandinavian home-cooking going on with giving both Norway and Denmark some of the best running orders they could've had. 😉
Ah thank you for that 🙏
A handsome Irish bloke tossing ESC statistics at me? Yes, please! 🎉
😂 agreed.
😂😂😂😂
Great analysis for the Semi I'll be attending live. And god, it does have most of my faves and I'm sure it's gonna be the proverbial bloodbath. Honing in to the most surprising production decision of putting Switzerland and Greece back to back, I think that, given both performances are done perfect enough, Switzerland might have just a tad more mainstream appeal because the song offers more cohesion than, hate to say it, Greece. Greece feels like a candidate for shock NQ. Another shock NQ could be Austria. I know the bubble loves Kaleen but all retro-love aside there's a certain dated feel, the retro´s not done well enough imho. Other potential NQs might be, Malta - Albania - Czechia - Denmark - Latvia - San Marino - Georgia - Estonia, all with their own varying degrees of weaknesses. Sure sailing to the GF in my book are Switzerland - Armenia - Belgium - Israel - Norway - Netherlands. But even then, we've seen the robberies before and sure as rain, tears will flow one way or another...
Ah thank God, I was lurking since yesterday morning to see if the video is up, I need a distraction from work (don't tell my boss please 😂)
For me, this running order has a much better flow to the energy. I will be dancing my buns off for about 90% of it!
As a Latvian, all of my relatives think the same way you explained on 25:11. We can send whatever tf we want, it does not go through. We send Citi Zēni with EAT YOU SALAD - we are put 2nd in the running order. We send Sudden Lights with AIJĀ - we are put in the strongest semi just to get thrown out BECAUSE CROATIA DECIDED TO GIVE 10 POINTS TO SERBIA FOR BEING THEIR NEIGHBOURS!!! When we selected AIJĀ, my parents said that Europe won't understand us. They were absolutely correct🫥
😢
I loved Aija, i really did. I was so sad when it didn’t got through
Seriously worried about Latvia not qualifying ;( But that's for a while like that already - the competition is so serious this year. But I will watch and hope that all of my favorites qualify :)
Tom did you see Mustii's new acoustic version (acoustic live VRT) his best performance and great camera job too. I think he will deliver it this way in Malmö. Love it, I think he really gets ready now ❤💯💥👍
no but ill have to check it out, cos some of the recent performances ive seen have been quite bad
@@ESCTom Yes I know, but this one you won't regret 😉👍👌
In the end when we summarise SF1 and SF2 running order producers did very good job. There is not massive overlapping in genres between neighbouring songs, there are not two ballads or two ethnic song together and so on. And some countries like my own (🇭🇷) really has to be happy. But I'm quite sad that especially Latvia🇱🇻 didn't get a little bit better slot. We need them and Georgia🇬🇪 in the finals. Every new NQ could lead to their withdraw. And this would be so sad,we shouldn't lost more countries.
Love your content Tom, 110% effort as always sharing your insight and analysis. I really think this year is one of the hardest contests in years to predict. Both semi 1 and 2. Odds aside, I think you could argue a case for at least 8 winners. Who do you think this year are the underestimated chances that could win in the final.?
I think the odds largely have it right right now. I think there are around 5-6 countries in it and there currently at the top. Maybe Norway has a chance to get involved there, although it seems some people really don’t like her vocal
I'm still a little bit worried about Norway. Look, France & Spain both sent quite unusual acts for them recently (Fulenn & Eaea) and both were loved in the fandom but absolutely flopped in the televote.
I'm asking myself if the same thing could happen to Norway this year. I think people are expecting something mainstream or funny from Norway. Ulveham is something very unusual for them, just like Fulenn & Eaea was for France & Spain and I think this could scare people off a bit🤔
Televote in semis is much easier than in the final
For me Norway is the best Scandinavic and Baltic entry. It'll get a lot of points from those countries.
As someone who *loved* both Fulenn & Eaea, Norway isn't really even close to those, it's not among my favorites, but then again, I don't think it will have the same fate as them, either. I personally believe this year's "loved in the fandom but flopped in the televote" entries may well be Serbia and/or Portugal... (But then what do I know, as I did love both Fulenn & Eaea, and they flopped 😂 )
@@florenna that's what fun about Eurovision. We all have different taste in music. And i love especially this year is since you can't really predict the winner.
@@mariakk2610 Yes, on that we can agree! :)
Anyone else just really love Czechia?? 😂😂😂 avril Lavigne FIFA vibes 🤣😂 but after all we ALL know Nemo will be put on their pedestal at about 11:00 GMT on the 11th may....so.....wouldnt worry about the 4th slot but we NEED Greece to shine anyway to take televotes away from Alessandra in the final. Finland, Estonia also need to be strong for us to hoover televotes from joost and b lasagna!
I love the *studio/video version* of Czechia (the punk rock vibe & the lyrics), the live not so much 😂 It's such a car crash, and I doubt she has improved *that* much in these couple of months, as that'd be a miracle. But I doubt Nemo will win, top 5 probably, but ofc this year is so open that we won't know anything, so yes, it actually might :) But anyway, fully agree Finland needing to be strong in the final (as a Finn)! 😄 So everyone please vote for us if you can & you want this scenario to happen, wink 😉
TOM you can't do this to me I'm supposed to be working 😩 anyway let's see 👀
PLease don’t get fired 🙏
Denmark, who among all the songs not currently a heavy favorite to qualify, was given a bump. Enough to push them over the edge? Tough to say, but I think they're feeling the love. It would have been hard to find a balance I like, but I feel like the showrunners this year are maybe being too focused on viewership compared to retaining the weaker Eurovision countries' interest in the contest. Given Denmark's place in, I don't think anyone can argue in good faith that there wasn't at least some interest in helping certain countries.
Yes, and if I remember right, the Danish entry has a Swedish songwriter, so somewhat blatant favoritism ;)
I mean I would have preferred Malta at running order 6 but at least it's not 2 or 3 in the running order the revamp of Malta in my opinion was way better I just hope the staging will be amazing and the live performance also
San Marino not being at the 11th spot is criminal
I basically have opposite opinions to you with regard to Malta and Austria. I always thought Malta would be the much more accessible show opener. Austria is a pretty niche track, and I thought it would be pretty weird, personally, to start the show with something that sounds like it was pulled wholesale out of a 1990s time capsule. I don't care how good the stage show is going to be.
Now that we know the running order I think the qualifiers will be (in a random order)
1. 🇨🇭
2. 🇳🇱
3. 🇬🇷
4. 🇮🇱
5. 🇳🇴
6. 🇦🇹 unless they mess up the staging
7. 🇧🇪
8. 🇩🇰
9. 🇦🇲
10. 🇪🇪
Hi Tom, maybe I've missed that bit, but just out of curiosity... I have noticed that the ‰ chance of winning by slot is exactly the same in each semifinal. Do you know if that's the actual case or those %s are an avarage between the two semis? Sorry, I like statistics 😂
It’s an average between the two semis. I know that doing it by semi 1 or 2 would be “purer”, but I’d rather have the larger sample size of combining both semis, cos fundamentally I think a semi is a semi
@@ESCTom thank you!
How do YOU think Estonia should stage? Do they have the 2 groups of men clearly separated and singing AT each other, then coming together, and dancing together the end?
❤❤❤
Can you react to Tali's revamp?
Would be interesting to remove the jury scores from the previous years' qualification calculations when working out each slot's qualification chances. I wonder if it would make much difference
I was going to do that but honestly it takes much longer than you think cos you need to check running order and then find their televote rank. I reckon it would take 3-4 hours to do for all semis
Netherlands will be the greatest closing act of all time
I am sad you haven’t review Eden Golan.
Bellissimo❤🧡💛💚💙Armenia
As a Latvian, I'm just so tired of these running orders... Seeing all the favorites at the end, everyone who usually don't qualify are put to perform as quick as possible... Makes no sense.
You guys just can't catch a break. It was looking good for Latvia at the begining being in the seemingly weaker semi, 2nd half with a Baltic neighbour voting but now thing have changed for the worse. Hopefully Latvia makes it through, we need them back in the final.
Estonia qualified with a ballad last year. This is better so i have HIGH HOPES:)
@@user-dy4io9nt3z Estonia was actually better.
@@adamtideman4953 And I'd want Latvia in the final too, only not with this song, as there's no denying that it doesn't stand out, and is quite boring... If only Latvia had made a different choice!! :(
"after 7 to 8 non-qualifiers, countries might not show up because people hate us"
Meanwhile hungary after 1 nq
😭
Well obviously the 1 NQ wasn't the (main) reason why Hungary withdrew...
@@elvinam888 I know
Just making fun
Georgia got handed a lay up I think. They are separated from the other girly bops and I heard Nutsa's team will be in charge of the staging instead of the Georgian delegation so that's a green flag for me. If the staging is polished and sticks out in a positive way things should work out for them. (I think out of the NQ streak squad of Georgia, Latvia, and Ireland, Georgia is in the best position to break the curse methinks)
Czechia I'm not sure about if they'll qualify but in the past 2 years they tend to polish their final product after a questionable nf performance so I really really hope that's the case this year (even if they don't qualify I'll be happy for them if they still take huge steps)
Estonia is who I'm very worried for. They need to bring their A game with the staging or it's game over (bitch). If the final product is weak I'm gonna be so sad because the song is very fun and we haven't had a song fully in Estonian in over 10 years.
Israel is the biggest mystery of them all I think. All I'm gonna say is it's a similar situation as Poland's running order in semi 1 where it will stick out from songs that contrast it and people (ones who vote more blindly and are more casual) will gravitate toward it or it'll completely backfire since it's a ballad surrounded by big songs like Italy, Norway, and Netherlands that are more loud.
Unless there were drastic and positive changes to Malta and Albania, I have a bad feeling the producers see those songs are expendable and are putting them first and second and then will "get the show started for real" with Greece and Switzerland.
I'm guessing Israel are expected to qualify and in the final they will want to get them out of the way (simply because of controversy) as soon as possible, so they've given them a good slot in the Semi and are planning a weak slot in the Final.
Yea that could make sense too. If they draw 1st half, it could get slot 2 or 3
I didn’t think of that.
Yep, if they put Israel in the 2nd or 3rd slot in the final they can always claim it’s fair because of high placement in the semi. I guess we’ll see.
Looks like a 3am wakeup if I want to watch Switzerland 🇨🇭 in Semi-Final 2. I wish it was a little later in the running order. Hopefully it will be placed later in the Final.
You are from Australia?
@@jtb357 🇦🇺 🦘
Moy favorite Zerbija: Ramonda❤🎉😊
I really don't understand why Switzerland is at nr.4 ... The song itself screams later time than earlier. It does not fit the beginning of the show, it's too epic. I'm concerned that the producers did this because the staging is bad then? I will be crushed if the Swiss gets again first half at the finals. From the beginning, I said that The Code screams 'winner' vibes and now I'm so confused.
Both binaries in the 4 th places, in semi 1 and in semi 2
I think it’s literally because of the situation where there’s so many female artist in the first half.So they need to use the two non-female artist break it up, and they decided to put France later because the viewing figures are significantly higher and I think they want to reward them for bringing in one of their more established artists
maybe it's the exact opposite and they got this spot because they think it is a safe q. Maybe the staging is more intricate than greece and czechia and ofc there's also the argument of having non-female artists in between. (at least that's what I hope)
@@ESCTom Well I hope so! I watch your videos because you analyze the songs and Eurovision in general exactly as myself, so I always waiting for your reaction to confirm my thoughts. So I will trust you and hope that producers do not decide to harm up Swiss this year for some reason... I think at the finals Netherlands vs. Switzerland will be the case, somewhere near will be Greece and Italy. So my guess is that Netherlands will win televote, but will not get enough credits from juries, and Nemo will be somewhere nr.2 / nr. 3 with the televotes and I believe that Nr. 1 with the juries, so The Code seems to win. Well, we'll see, hoping for the best! And also will be voting for the Switzerland this year and I never voted before at the ESC just because no one took me so much as The Code to the core of my soul.
Anyway, Switzerland at the nr. 4 is the TEA
I hope all the baltics qualify this year.
I find it interesting that you comment on being sad that Latvia and Georgia isn't being helped by the producers, by giving them a later slot to help with qualification, yet when Denmark has you call it favoritism.
I do see your point about not wanting to loose participants due to a bad qualification streak, but I feel it's a bit of a double standard when, at the same time, you're criticising the producers for giving Denmark a later slot. I mean, make up your mind. 😆
Latvia and Georgia are -6, Denmark are -3 and have a significantly higher QF record in the last 15 years (64% vs 20% & 43%). those arent the same IMO
@@ESCTomBut it is a double standard. If you want to have the producers help some, yet are critical when they do it with others. Nevermind how they help songs that are already higher in the odds - despite them being the least needing of said help - but that it not a point of criticism. You see what I mean?
Is this supposed to be the weaker semi? Because I'm struggling to pick only 10 😢
Nah they’re both strong now
It was the weaker one at first on paper, at first, going by countries only, but now they're equal, as Tom said :)
Running order let's gooooo! So happy that Europapa is closing!!! 💙💙💙Welkom in Europa!!!
LOL at the idea that Estonia might come on and "look like a drunken brawl."
Looking forward to the explosive ending of the semi)finals with Norway and The Netherlands, that's going to be wild ! I hope San Marino makes it, but Latvia and Georgia might lengthen their NQ streak, which I feel sad for ! It's rare for me as a Belgian to be almost sure of qualification, that feels nice !
Is televoting the same for semi final with being able to vote from the start.
Nope, voting starts after the last song
Arguably, at first glance Austria got the best slot in the first half (equivalent to the hot favourite Croatia), however, coming before Denmark doesn't make sense. Do you agree Tom? It works in favour of Denmark rather than Austria. Likewise, it can be buried by Armenia and Denmark coming after it.
I got Albania 🇦🇱 and Armenia 🇦🇲 right xD
And yes Netherlands was pretty obvious, don't know why I predicted Estonia closing the show 🥲
Maybe another reason why they put Austria so late instead of letting them open the show:
The staging concept may be a vibe like "we will rave" - so they want to prevent kids (family friendly time) seeing a song "we will rave" 💀
In Sem-Final 1 I got 47 Points and I will be updating where the Ad-Breaks will go
Semi-Final 2 Running Order (Starting on 19 Points)
01. Malta 🇲🇹 (05) (+4 Points) (23 Points)
02. Albania 🇦🇱 (02) (-1 Point) (22 Points)
03. Greece 🇬🇷 (04) (+1 Point) (23 Points)
04. Switzerland🇨🇭(03) (+1 Point) (24 Points)
05. Czechia 🇨🇿 (08) (+3 Points) (27 Points)
1st Predicted Ad Break
06. France 🇫🇷 (07) (+1 Point) (28 Points)
07. Austria 🇦🇹 (01) (+6 Points) (34 Points)
08. Denmark 🇩🇰 (09) (+1 Point) (35 Points)
09. Armenia 🇦🇲 (06) (+3 Points) (38 Points)
2nd Predicted Ad Break
10. Latvia 🇱🇻 (18) (+8 Points) (46 Points)
11. Spain 🇪🇸 (12) (+1 Point) (47 Points)
12. San Marino 🇸🇲 (15) (+3 Points) (50 Points)
13. Georgia 🇬🇪 (17) (+4 Points) (54 Points)
14. Belgium 🇧🇪 (10) (+4 Points) (58 Points)
3rd Predicted Ad Break
15. Estonia 🇪🇪 (19) (+4 Points) (62 Points)
16. Italy 🇮🇹 (16) (-1 Point) (61 Points)
17. Israel 🇮🇱 (13) (+4 Points) (65 Points)
18. Norway 🇳🇴 (11) (+7 Points) (72 Points)
19. Netherlands 🇳🇱 (14) (+5 Points) (78 Points)
78 Points is not very Good at all and Im on 125 Points for the season so far.
I did correctly Predict Albania 🇦🇱 to Perform 2nd and Italy 🇮🇹 to Perform 16 and the Correct Order of the All The Auto-Qualifiers in Both Semis
I think you can now take the “Mr. Eurovision” title from Johnny Logan.
Greece and Switzerland will qualify regardless of the spot they get.
I hope Georgia qualifies.
San Marino coming after Spain may help them qualify.
They are definitely try to get Israel to qualify 😑
Estonia will not stand out among all those good final entries, fortunately.
Honestly didn't find myself too surprised by semi-final 2 as much as I did with semi-final 1! But I do have some things to say still
Austria opening never seemed realistic to me; the music video being so raunchy makes me think the staging will be very dark and intense too - Malta opening is maybe not the choice I would've expected either. Personally I would've expected Denmark?
I do really feel bad for San Marino, put next to the only other Spanish-language song in the contest 😭😭
Maybe they are putting most of the favourites very early on in the SF because they know they will 100% qualify anyway and it will be a good excuse to give them the best slots in the final as the final is the most important
Could be. Although they didn’t do that in semi final 1
I wonder if some strong songs (Greece, Switzerland) have been placed in the beginning so that they could be placed in the end in the final?
We don't know yet. After each semifinal, the qualifiers (and the 3 automatic qualifiers except Sweden) get to pick a "paper roll" which will tell them in what half of the final they will be in. And the producers then decide what the running order for the final will be. So if Greece and Switzerland pick 1st half of the final, they can't get a favoured draw.
About France, I agree with the idea that France Televisions (I should say Alexandra Redde-Amiel) chose Slimane not to win the contest but to to appeal all the people who discovered him at Popstar/XFactor (which is on M6) and The Voice (TF1), and follow him since. France Television may grab audiences from these other channels.
In France, the ESC has still a very bad reputation. It's considered as a bad show, with excentric, bad singers, bad joke songs, a LGBT thing... plus a contest that France will never be able to win anymore. 😢
I hope this will change within a few years. Really.
Some thoughts:
- Aiko being right between the two strongest vocalists of the semi isnt great for her. unless she massively improves her vocals, the contrast will likely be off-putting to many.
- If the music Video is any indication, Austria might simply not be family-friendly enough to open and was put late to separate it from Malta
- the second half of this semi feels much stronger than the first. Could see this end up as a very unbalanced semi with like 2 or 3 qualifiers from the first half and the rest from the second
The Netherlands have the banger of this year.
It’s good,funny,divergents and so spectacular live
For me the winner 2024
Is there any correlation between SF order and finals order? If NL gets the best spot now, does that mean anything for the finals?
A little bit, generally if you get a bad draw in semis, you’re less likely to also get one in the final as well. Favourite will always get a good draw though in final
switzerland is my #1 and i'm not happy at all with their slot i can't lie...i wanted them to close the first half as i belief nemo is gonna bring a wham bam performance that would be an incredible closer for the half...makes it even worse than i can't vote in this semi!! i want to vote for malta as well, i think sarah is so underrated
fingers crossed the people voting in sf2 vote for nemo and sarah as i'm stressing already LOL
belgium is also one of my faves but i think mustii will be fine as they're in the second half 👍👍
This is a positive sign Austria 🇦🇹 with this slot. Would rate Italy 🇮🇹, Switzerland 🇨🇭, and the Netherlands as a contender to win.
Hello Tom! You’re such a good analyst! Thank you so much for your content, such a great job!
From a few analyses I’ve watched in your channel, the EBU wants to give this impression of “being transparent” and “fair”, but I still have a bit of a bad feeling that they might try to rig the televote in order to make Israel qualify, in case they get few votes. Do you think this is possible?
Greetings from 🇪🇨😀
No, I don’t think that they would rig the Televote, it would be such a gigantic scandal and also they just don’t care that much. If they want to do some rigging, then they can do so with the running order, but then again I don’t think that they are that invested in who makes the final.
In regards to Israel, because of the schism in the community this year they’re going to qualify because the people who are pro, might be voting 10-20 times for them. The other side can’t vote against
@@ESCTom Thank you so much for your insight! 🤗
Dons changed his whole staging between semi and final of Supernova. He switched to a dark staging that was WAY better, it had a much greater emotional impact. I'm hoping they take it as a template and further improve from there. That white staging did nothing for the song lol
ill try to do a quick review of it if i can
This is easy… my favourites here are Italy and Belgium 😊
Greece, Switzerland, Israel (as there is no negative vote), Norway and Netherlands are 100% in the final. There is going to be a bloodbath for the other five songs to go through.
Add Belgium to that imho, then it's getting very tight !
True! Belgium seems to be very strong, I didn’t include it because I haven’t seen him live yet
Hope Estonia makes it, it's my guilty pleasure as a Finn! ;D (Or not even that guilty in fact...)
Looking forward to the last 3 entries 🇮🇱🇳🇴🇳🇱 So awesome!
Last 2*
Yes !! ❤
“I wonder how many countries with red or blue in their flag we can get into semi-final 2”? Swedish organisers: “Yes”.
I’m surprised that they had the cojones to put Netherlands last, but then again SVT have never exactly been the most subtle in terms of giving their pet favourites the preferential treatment… this just confirms that they will win the semi by a landslide (and deservedly)
I think Greece got an early draw bc a) they need to be separated from Armenia, b) SVT felt they could qualify from any slot (which is true) and c) there’s a lot of big hitters in that first half so someone had to be put in third. I think they also put Switzerland on early bc of b and c.
I feel like the fandom collectively has overthought and gotten so much brain rot that they’ve managed to convince themselves that everyone got a bad draw somehow, I think the S2 draw is more “fair” than S1.
And while everyone is whinging about Serbia and Albania getting screwed over, they did send the kind of song that usually gets shoved into the death slot anyway and personally I think both would struggle regardless of where you put them.
I don't see Serbia struggling at all tbh, not with Croatia, Slovenia, Germany voting in that semi who all have large Serbian diaspora populations
10:05 but we in Sweden always bullies Denmark 😂
The fact that the Netherlands 🇳🇱 is going last makes me think they wont put in the ending. I hope I'm wrong but I dont think they would want to close the show on that sort of emotion which is why I put the Netherlands 🇳🇱 14th in my Running Order Predictions and Estonia 🇪🇪 was Put last. Again I hope im wrong about the Netherlands 🇳🇱 Not putting in the ending but Unfortunately I dont see it happening
It’s in, it even gets special staging
@@Maria_muziekjes ok Im surprised its last
At first I had some hope for Albania
But now?? No
for austria: the staging will prob be explicit
It won't be, Kaleen already said it will be nothing like the music video
@@sav0001 ok good i dont like the mv
Después de que Chanel no ganara Eurovisión, muchos españoles pensamos que ganar ya NO es el OBJETIVO sino pasarlo bien.
Nebulosa recoge en su canción el MENSAJE de los años 80 ,de grupos como ALASKA, cantando que : NO IMPORTA LO QUE DIGAN LOS DEMÁS ,YO HARÉ LO QUE ME DE LA GANA ,no importa mi edad,mi raza ni ningún otro factor como la orientación se🎉ual.
Y por cierto buena suerte a Holanda también ♥️
Austria could be that late because the music video suggests it might be kind of raunchy
I was thinking the same, not 100% family friendly. But then again they've put Cyprus first in SF1 with her tiny latex bra and striptease 😆
Я за Норвегию
I think the reason that Austria is on later is possibly because Karen is going for more sexual staging, the music video was very spicy and they don’t want another Albania 2022 situation
Kaleen already said the staging will be nothing like the music video
Switzerland fot the win! 🇨🇭
Greece is amazing this year!! Definitely will be the winner 🇬🇷🏆 💖🇬🇷🇬🇷🇬🇷1️⃣1️⃣1️⃣1️⃣💖💖👏👏
ALBANIA❤is great ❤❤12
What do you think about Greece?
It's a beautiful country, with many places to visit, very kind people and delicious food.
@@Olivier-GM they also make good and unique music for ESC, most of the times. 80% q
Netherlands will close ESC with huge party in Malmö hall..couldnt have been better picked 🥰🥰🥰🥰🥳🥳🥳🥳 And ..he WILL win ESC 2024, no doubt about it...either in Malmö or on all radio stations and charts throughout Europe and beyond 🤩🤩