🔮 Semi-Final 1 Qualifier Predictions & ANALYSIS | Eurovision 2024

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  • Опубліковано 27 тра 2024
  • I go through SF1 of Eurovision 2024 and say which 10 countries I think could make it to the Grand Final of Eurovision 2024, at this moment before rehearsals.
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    Timestamps:
    0:00 Intro
    2:01 Ukraine
    3:06 Croatia
    3:57 Finland
    5:15 Moldova
    6:23 Lithuania
    7:40 Poland
    9:17 Iceland
    11:07 Serbia
    12:59 Australia
    15:20 Azerbaijan
    16:54 Ireland
    19:05 Cyprus
    23:23 Portugal
    24:43 Luxembourg
    26:39 Slovenia
    27:58 Wrap up
    Check out my other videos:
    My Eurovision 2023 Top 37:
    • My Top 37 - Eurovision...
    Top 44 Countries in Eurovision:
    • Top 44 Countries in Eu...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 1:
    • Eurovision 2023's plac...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 1:
    • The Ultimate Eurovisio...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 3:
    • Eurovision 2023 Grand ...
    Eurovision Hearts: Thanks to Smthngnw on Wikipedia
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КОМЕНТАРІ • 350

  • @sillygoose-3000
    @sillygoose-3000 Місяць тому +151

    im ready for the ”toms giant white board gets gradually bigger in every video until it takes over the whole channel” arc

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +14

      SPOILER!

    • @tomesc2787
      @tomesc2787 Місяць тому +5

      Can't believe we're already at that point in the eurovision season omg

  • @JavierMartinez-vb6pf
    @JavierMartinez-vb6pf Місяць тому +139

    The grass touching is hilarious lol

    • @DarkFlareGC
      @DarkFlareGC Місяць тому +3

      This was my favourite bit 🤣

    • @hippopotamusbosch
      @hippopotamusbosch Місяць тому +5

      I prefer to tell people to “calm down”. It seems to make even more angry.

  • @MalenaCPH
    @MalenaCPH Місяць тому +121

    My 12 points go to ESC Tom. I enjoy your videos so much.

  • @saudade_saudade977
    @saudade_saudade977 Місяць тому +41

    Portugal, Serbia and Slovenia are all in my top 7 😭🫶

    • @martinacerne8499
      @martinacerne8499 Місяць тому +8

      Yessssss. Go Slovenia!❤

    • @chris_1103
      @chris_1103 Місяць тому +7

      Yeah, same here. Serbia 1st, Slovenia 2nd and Portugal 6th. I'm worried...

    • @thalassophile_artist
      @thalassophile_artist Місяць тому

      same here, I really want all 3 to qualify. We need more quality songs in the final. This is turning into a circus...

    • @martinacerne8499
      @martinacerne8499 Місяць тому +4

      @@thalassophile_artistGritto , Ramonda and Veronika are all very beautiful songs, excellent vocals. I am very concerned. It all depends on televoting.🙏

  • @farmerpickless
    @farmerpickless Місяць тому +66

    Ireland is quite high in the odds, but at the moment I just want them to break their NQ streak and qualify.

    • @thesnesgeek
      @thesnesgeek Місяць тому +1

      The same with Latvia.

    • @florenna
      @florenna Місяць тому +4

      @@thesnesgeek Not with that song.

    • @yodenman
      @yodenman Місяць тому

      Totally agree. Along with Moldova and Finland are the songs I always skip.​@@florenna

  • @lunamagnoona1788
    @lunamagnoona1788 Місяць тому +34

    I think if Slovenia doesn't qualify I'll break out in tears, but the points you raised are totally valid, I hope people see it for how cool it is

  • @neilwaldock6272
    @neilwaldock6272 Місяць тому +29

    I agree about Australia. Electric Fields is the entry we've seen the least from this year, and they are great on stage, so when we finally see the song live I think a lot of people will see its potential. Montagne didn't go to Europe because Australia had an EXTREMELY tight Covid quarantine, so it would have been difficult for them to come back. For a couple of years, Australia and NZ were virtually cut off from the rest of the world. Love the Guatemala soccer shirt, it looks great on you!

    • @KylieWilson
      @KylieWilson Місяць тому +7

      I lived in NZ for the first year of the pandemic, I dunno if it was the same in Australia, but anyone who arrived in the country had to be holed up in a hotel room in isolation for two weeks before being allowed to join the general public, so yeah I don’t blame SBS for not wanting to go through all that rigmarole

    • @neilwaldock6272
      @neilwaldock6272 Місяць тому +6

      @@KylieWilson Yes, the same in Australia. Also very limited flights.

  • @laurajuric5814
    @laurajuric5814 Місяць тому +30

    I need all of three EX-YU countries in grand final. They all bring special moments. Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia all the way 🇭🇷🇷🇸🇸🇮

    • @SANDRICA252
      @SANDRICA252 Місяць тому +1

      So U know what to do ... Just vote for right song

  • @zwelfbungt
    @zwelfbungt Місяць тому +46

    Side-note about Ukraine: In 2012, they were a Televote NQ and in fact it was the closest they've ever got to non-qualification.

  • @florenna
    @florenna Місяць тому +16

    So happy that you (too) believe in Finland, despite all the haters! ☺ Don't know why so many fans just love to hate on it, it's utterly baffling, but then again, haters gonna hate, no matter what 😉 But OTOH, there are so many who love it, too. You're so right in all the reasons, plus it is 4th in odds to qualify, after all.

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +4

      you can only vote FOR in the televote, so the haters dont really count 🤷🏻‍♂️

    • @florenna
      @florenna Місяць тому +5

      @@ESCTom Exactly! 😄 It's just been quite painful to have our entry so hated (by fans) this year, in such a contrast to last year... 😟

  • @evan.6397
    @evan.6397 Місяць тому +52

    Honestly I could totally see a world where Luxembourg NQ's. They're definately going to make a big deal about Luxembourg being back, but that could set it up so that when people hear it for the first time the public will be like 'Oh. That's it?'. I can definitely see people being underwhelmed, considering the Luxembourg Comeback Hype

    • @AW-EV-and-FTM
      @AW-EV-and-FTM Місяць тому +3

      I wonder if Luxembourg is going to have incredible staging in order to up their chances.

    • @gameotaku900
      @gameotaku900 Місяць тому +1

      The song is plenty catchy though and last in the running order 😢

    • @ConESC24
      @ConESC24 Місяць тому +2

      I do think Luxembourg is qualifying

  • @janep1347
    @janep1347 Місяць тому +21

    Portugal, Serbia, and Azerbaijan are in my top 5 this year, I really hope they make it 🇷🇸🇵🇹🇦🇿

  • @fazza84
    @fazza84 Місяць тому +28

    I think Slovenia, Serbia and Croatia being in the same semi gives me more confidence in qualification. Poland live might be questionable, however they do have the diaspora. So many variables here. Moldova does not have much support from the delegation and will not have dancers based on what is being said online. No way of verifying that.
    I'm predicting Croatia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Slovenia, Serbia, Ireland, Australia, Luxomberg, Finland, Cyprus

  • @dv2483
    @dv2483 Місяць тому +15

    I'll be sad if Raiven doesn't make it. I hope we get all 3 female ballads (Ukraine has its own niche for me). If we're not getting the first 7, I'm the most worried for Ireland and Cyprus, actually. Poland and Serbia have friends and diaspora which is important at the borderline...

  • @alankirby1353
    @alankirby1353 Місяць тому +7

    Electric fields is a dark horse …. Seeing them preform live in Oz and their lack of appearance at any of the pre parties I honestly think they are underrated

  • @DarkFlareGC
    @DarkFlareGC Місяць тому +46

    Already watched this over on patreon 😉 stopping by again to make sure to add a like and view for that pesky algorithm

  • @EurovisionExpat
    @EurovisionExpat Місяць тому +8

    I have a feeling that, even though we have all 3 ex-Yugoslav countries in this semifinal, either Serbia or Slovenia (or maybe even both 😬) is going to get left behind. I think Serbia might actually be the more likely NQ of the two, though, because I don't really see casual viewers going for Ramonda over Veronika.

  • @LeviTheCutest
    @LeviTheCutest Місяць тому +9

    I'm hopeful for slovenia. i love the song but the pre-party footage of raiven showed just how much charisma she has and i think that's going to put her across the sad red line. i don't think her presence really comes across in the music video.

  • @ThaGamingMisfit
    @ThaGamingMisfit Місяць тому +18

    Slovenia not going through would really break my heart. Raiven has the best female voice this year, no discussion.I would even be demotivated watching the final if she's not in there, I just don't understand the low interest for this song, it's my number 2 song this year. I gladly trade this for the likes of Australia, Cyprus or Luxembourg which offer nothing anywhere special as Raiven. Serbia's song sounds so much weaker than Slovenia to me too. But this semi final will be so close and hearts will be broken, Portugal going out woudl also make me feel sad. I love the Azerbaidjan song but I realize it doesn't have much chance in this madness.

    • @SANDRICA252
      @SANDRICA252 Місяць тому +2

      Totally agree with you I love 🇸🇮 song, vocal is the best so she must go through or it will break my ❤

  • @erinnadia0409
    @erinnadia0409 Місяць тому +25

    lol my Ireland bias exists too but this is the first time as an Irish fan I actually get to feel excited about our entry! I think Bambie will make it to the final!

  • @andrewmead1298
    @andrewmead1298 Місяць тому +22

    I’m giving my top marks to Australia
    Slovenia and Cyprus in the hope that it helps them get to the Final🤞

  • @nobodyimportant281
    @nobodyimportant281 Місяць тому +38

    I'll definitely be voting for Bambie in the semi! I need this Icon in the final so much! ❤😭

    • @aekelly
      @aekelly Місяць тому +6

      Me too! I love them. I've seen a lot of close-minded reaction to them, but then again a lot of folks who appreciated their originality - so I'm just hoping really hard. I"d love it if their staging was unlike anything anyone's ever seen before and it put them over the top to win!

  • @ido_cohen
    @ido_cohen Місяць тому +14

    SF1 is definitely unpredictable, too many borderlines. My predictions change frequently. As for now they are:
    1. Croatia
    2. Ukraine
    3. Lithuania
    4. Serbia
    5. Cyprus
    6. Luxembourg
    7. Slovenia
    8. Ireland
    9. Portugal
    10. Finland
    11. Poland
    12. Azerbaijan
    13. Australia
    14. Iceland
    15. Moldova

  • @EuroDai
    @EuroDai Місяць тому +6

    At last, Tom's whiteboard season - Eurovision is just around the corner now!

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +3

      Whiteboard = means business

  • @weronika152
    @weronika152 Місяць тому +5

    there's something junior eurovision about luxebourg's national final performance and song to me. totally wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't qualify but wouldn't be shocked if it qualifies from 9th or 10th place. when it comes to portugal and serbia i feel like only one of them will qualify? we'll see

  • @melindamuller4466
    @melindamuller4466 Місяць тому +18

    I really hope that Ireland, San Marino and Luxembourg all qualify this year; they all deserve this, and they are doing something new (or just returning to the competition)

  • @VigoJ
    @VigoJ Місяць тому +7

    Definite Qualifiers - Croatia and Ukraine
    Likely Qualifiers - Lithuania and Finland
    Borderline Qualifiers - Ireland, Luxembourg, Serbia, Slovenia, Australia, Poland
    Borderline Non-Qualifiers - Cyprus, Portugal
    Likely Non-Qualifiers - Moldova
    Definite Non-Qualifiers - Iceland and Azerbaijan
    It's all going to depend on the stage performance, very difficult semi to predict. Poland has a lot of diaspora voting potential which I think will push it over the line to be honest. I think either Cyprus or Luxembourg are definitely qualifying but only one of them make it, there will be a narrative pushed about Luxembourg and the running order is good for them. Slovenia will depend on their staging I've heard there's budget issues possibly which would hurt their chances massively as I am sure Veronika has so many plans and ideas but would require financial backing, if Slovenia don't bring a good stage performance then I can't see them qualifying. I also struggle to see a world where both Portugal AND Serbia qualify, one of them is making it at best. I see potential for a telemoveis moment with Ireland, it's one of my personal favourites but it just might be too much for the average Eurovision viewer and be off-putting. Making these predictions before the rehearsals is basically impossible but still quite fun but that's where I sit currently.

  • @WriterLilyth
    @WriterLilyth Місяць тому +14

    Thank you for being one of the few UA-cam pundits giving Australia some love!

  • @SirBarKer
    @SirBarKer Місяць тому +22

    Why can't I vote in this SF 😭😭 I wanna vote for Benelux-buddy Luxembourg, guilty pleasure Bambie Thug and the gorgeous Ramonda!! They need to qualify! (in my opinion)

    • @aurelb5412
      @aurelb5412 Місяць тому +1

      I think you still can🤔 not from your country tho, from the world vote ig

  • @mypondlife
    @mypondlife Місяць тому +5

    I need to get Ireland and Australia this year. It's a need at this point.

  • @19jenbob
    @19jenbob Місяць тому +4

    Yay - magnets and prediction time!
    You do make me laugh - touch grass and whiteboard takeover. 😂 Have a fabulous time in Malmo. The stage /lighting looks fantastic.

  • @stevenoldham8035
    @stevenoldham8035 Місяць тому +3

    I think Azerbaijan will do well with the ROW vote - it may well be their highest score. Could make the difference. I'd like to see them qualify, I think juries are likely to reward it more than televote.

  • @alycecollett5022
    @alycecollett5022 Місяць тому +7

    Love your work as usual Tom! I just wanted to point out though that Australia weren't at the contest in person in 2021 because they literally weren't allowed to leave the country at the time. Due to government policy Australians needed to get permission to leave the country during Covid, and it was near impossible to get those permits

  • @zsokapados5197
    @zsokapados5197 Місяць тому +20

    Great video as always! I think Serbia is a likely yes minimum if we speak about qualifying. People always underestimate them, but I wouldn't be surpised, if they will qualify even something like 5th. Serbia is doing really great with tele usually and this can stand out even on 2nd. Portugal, Slovenia or even Ireland are in more of a danger.

  • @tayla-raemcgregor3192
    @tayla-raemcgregor3192 Місяць тому +11

    My favourite Eurovision analyses and breakdowns! I really hope that Australia doesn’t let us down with the staging. The song is such a grower… I keep getting it stuck in my head ❤

  • @ianadam3393
    @ianadam3393 Місяць тому +4

    tom i want to say thankyou for the video of the eurovision content creators

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому

      ❤️🙏🏻

  • @onidii
    @onidii Місяць тому +2

    I agree with your list, the only thing i would change is Slovenia and Luxembourg qualifying (I'm really hopeful that Slovenia will have a good staging, and i think Luxembourg's running order and return are going to help it quality). I would probably change them with Australia and one of Portugal or Cyprus, so all from your borderline yesses haha.

    • @SANDRICA252
      @SANDRICA252 Місяць тому +2

      I would also vote for Slovenia others are safe anyway and she deserve to go through or it never will if she don't make it with this song which is masterpiece💯

  • @Jakumata
    @Jakumata Місяць тому +9

    Excellent analysis! I will be able to vote in this semi and my votes will go to Portugal and Slovenia and probably Bambie depending on the night. my favourite (Croatia) is anyway Q. My heart is just melting every time I hear Grito. And I am so dead certain actually that people are sleeping on her. It reminds me a lot on the initial underwhelming response aija got last year and then people started to love it more and more. 😅

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +2

      i 100% approve of that voting! all 3 of those need your help

    • @sarafreitas5931
      @sarafreitas5931 23 дні тому

      Thanks a lot from Portugal. ❤

  • @MadameChristie
    @MadameChristie Місяць тому +13

    I'd put Slovenia over Cyprus personally, just because I suspect Raiven will kill with the staging

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +3

      🤞🏻

  • @user-il5gj1of2j
    @user-il5gj1of2j Місяць тому +6

    SLOVENIA FOR THE FINAL ❤️💙🤍🧝🏻‍♀️👑

  • @lachysims6327
    @lachysims6327 Місяць тому +11

    Completely agree with Australia qualifying, I've got plenty of confidence in our ability to stage and Electric Fields ability to perform, people will come to appreciate the song after the contest for sure

  • @TheWisePenny
    @TheWisePenny Місяць тому +3

    Didn't mention it these last 2 months but I'm so glad it's eurovision season again and that I can watch your video's again!

  • @kimslice9993
    @kimslice9993 Місяць тому +1

    Yayyy we are close now! Can’t wait to see your analysis of the rehearsals 😊

  • @erinnadia0409
    @erinnadia0409 Місяць тому +22

    I have a lot of faith in Australia, they will qualify! EF are incredible live. ❤

    • @AW-EV-and-FTM
      @AW-EV-and-FTM Місяць тому +6

      I hope so!!! They are grate

    • @florenna
      @florenna Місяць тому +1

      But the song is dull as dishwater...

    • @sav0001
      @sav0001 27 днів тому

      @@florenna You literally stan Finland, which is objectively one of the worst songs we have this year, so....

  • @rodsunduri3941
    @rodsunduri3941 Місяць тому +4

    I agree with your predictions, but I’d swap Poland with Slovenia, because I don’t think Luna’s live performance will stand out as much in terms of both voice quality and visuals, because it’s a very basic song, in my opinion.

  • @anteglibota9411
    @anteglibota9411 Місяць тому +9

    Slovenian will surprise you

  • @algrave
    @algrave Місяць тому +7

    It speaks well of the competition this year that the qualifiers are really going to be heavily determined by the stagings in Malmo. My current predictions aren't that far from yours, swapping Slovenia for Cyprus.

  • @tacothealien9805
    @tacothealien9805 Місяць тому +17

    Portugal + Serbia Q = taste

    • @florenna
      @florenna Місяць тому +1

      Oh please stop blathering about "taste"... As if your opinion was somehow "better" than others. Plus both are very low in odds, both lower than 20th, which says something about their quality...

    • @tacothealien9805
      @tacothealien9805 Місяць тому +2

      @@florenna when did I ever say my opinion was better than others all I was saying was that I liked that he put Serbia and Portugal as qualifiers because those two are my favs

    • @tacothealien9805
      @tacothealien9805 20 днів тому

      @@florenna look who’s talking now 😘

  • @RuddeyBoy90
    @RuddeyBoy90 Місяць тому +3

    Love your videos!
    And great shirt again! 😁
    Greetings from the Netherlands.

  • @tonyttt31
    @tonyttt31 Місяць тому +3

    Great video, Tom. Always classy and relevant.

  • @escziva69
    @escziva69 Місяць тому +12

    I think Slovenia and Luxembourg will qualify instead of Cyprus and Portugal

  • @bosko41
    @bosko41 Місяць тому +1

    Good work(as always) Tom 👏🏻
    Love your new board 😅

  • @mikeshinnors4261
    @mikeshinnors4261 Місяць тому +1

    Great video Tom....well done keep up the savage work

  • @JanBors
    @JanBors Місяць тому +2

    I just started and double like just for this grass!!! amazing :D

  • @zapre6029
    @zapre6029 Місяць тому +4

    I like to see you struggling :) sweet. And it should be so! It would be very boring to be sure in advance...
    A thought: people who think Raiven song is boring is because they need songs that reach them, excite them, make them cry. Veronika does nothing of that. It pulls you in and does not let you go.. if you
    Immerse with it, the whole world opens.. that is art. She can gather pop audience with higer operetic and classical in one space, non of the other songs can do that. One guy said on youtube he can even do the head-banging with the song...
    Considering the predictions I think this year will be many surprises because as I saw many times ogae results were off and odds too! public that comes that night to watch is something else.. So let see!
    Regarding quality and authenticity of the songs I personally would put definately Cyprus, and Poland out and also Australia.. too generic! Azerbeijan and Moldova question mark. Iceland really from different time..

  • @andytarver263
    @andytarver263 Місяць тому

    Well done Tom
    Another great video,
    Well put together.

  • @LinnieCat
    @LinnieCat Місяць тому +3

    Slovenia ❤️😭

  • @sarahenchanted
    @sarahenchanted Місяць тому +10

    i touched the grass on my screen i hope you're proud
    I can't explain why but I'm becoming very confident in Ireland qualifying. Bambie is extremely charismatic on stage and like you said, people who support it will pick up the phone and those who don't will vote for something else and anything is possible.
    I think the issue with Fighter is Tali typically does slower indie songs and I don't think she quite has the charisma to perform an upbeat girly bop. I am leaning toward Luxembourg qualifying but it might end up getting 10th place.

  • @erinnadia0409
    @erinnadia0409 Місяць тому +3

    I loved Gustaph from day one and knew he would go to the final, but it was such a pleasant surprise when he made top ten! It was probably the highlight of the whole contest for me, I also think the Gustaph effect is in this year because we have a lot of "nostalgia/dated" songs this year ❤

  • @nikolag.-rb5ql
    @nikolag.-rb5ql Місяць тому +9

    Finally magnets again😃😃. Yes, this is incredibly open and only 4 of them (🇭🇷🇺🇦🇫🇮🇱🇹) are sure bets for Q. I would personally really like that Slovenia🇸🇮, Portugal🇵🇹 and Azerbaijan🇦🇿 Q, but if 2/3 of them Q i would also be happy, cause it's quite unlikely that all three would make it. I would also put Australia 🇦🇺 and Cyprus🇨🇾 out as borderline NO and Luxembourg🇱🇺 and Slovenia🇸🇮 in as borderline YES. This is my differences compared to you. So my predicted Q are Croatia🇭🇷 (winner of this semi), Ukraine 🇺🇦, Finland 🇫🇮, Lithuania 🇱🇹, Serbia🇷🇸, Ireland 🇮🇪, Poland🇵🇱, Portugal🇵🇹, Luxembourg🇱🇺 and Slovenia🇸🇮. And i think that Moldova🇲🇩 and Iceland 🇮🇸 are probably definitely NQ.
    Great video and can't wait for a new portion of magnets. 😁😁😁

  • @WannabeBackbencher
    @WannabeBackbencher Місяць тому +5

    I’d swap Poland and Slovenia for sure.

  • @SoyChicoToxico
    @SoyChicoToxico Місяць тому

    thanks for the analysis! I very much agree with almost everything you have said! I see Portugal more outside than inside, and the Slovenia / Serbia / Poland block is the one that generates the most doubts in me

  • @jimmey123XD
    @jimmey123XD Місяць тому +2

    I'd switch Luxembourg and Slovenia with Ireland and Cyprus. 😇

  • @reisberg88
    @reisberg88 Місяць тому +1

    Great insightful video. Love your fun yet super professional analysis ❤

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +1

      thank you Reisberg ❤️

    • @reisberg88
      @reisberg88 Місяць тому

      @@ESCTom you're welcome 🙏🏼 I always learn something new or get a new perspective

  • @pinkfuzzysocks1949
    @pinkfuzzysocks1949 Місяць тому +3

    I agree that this semi-final has 4 safe qualifiers, and I change my borderline ins/outs every time I do predictions (unlike SF2 where I'm pretty locked on like 8 or 9 of them lol). Serbia, Portugal and Australia will probably do well with juries if they make it through. but i think they have a chance even without juries in the semi. and i just feel like Cyprus is too "generic" to advance, but that might be own bias against the song lol

  • @aekelly
    @aekelly Місяць тому +6

    I'm so happy to hear you are optimistic about Bambie Thug! They are so different, and I love their stage presence and the way they mix up genres - just the most unique thing I've seen in a while and I love them! (Another UA-camr I'm fond of has them in the non-qualifying column, but they're more conservative in their tastes I think). And Electric Fields - just crossing my fingers that their staging will be as top-notch as usual. They're charismatic performers too.

  • @colettemarchington8724
    @colettemarchington8724 Місяць тому

    Totally agree with all of your comments Tom. Luxembourg might slip through as they are a returner but it is a song we’d hear in the contest in the 2007-2010 era.

  • @NeilRedknap
    @NeilRedknap Місяць тому +2

    I think Poland has a dream draw of voting friends. A country you didn't mention that they also have is Ukraine. With Ukraine, the UK, Ireland, and Lithuania voting in their semi, I think Poland is a very likely qualifier. I think they will also receive points from Germany, and even a few from Iceland, as Poles make up the largest ethnic minority there.
    Love the Guatemala football shirt! Guatemala is in the same football confederation (CONCACAF) that I'm from. All the best from Canada, Tom!

  • @henriikkak2091
    @henriikkak2091 29 днів тому +1

    Genuinely surprised by the Finland ranking 😮😅

  • @PinkBread14
    @PinkBread14 Місяць тому +13

    ITS FINALLY HERE!!!!!!!
    Anyway, im thinking Iceland,Moldova,Azerbaijan,Cyprus and unfortunately, portugal are missing out

  • @citizensallianceofaustrali697
    @citizensallianceofaustrali697 Місяць тому

    Concise, comprehensive and very well presented video. I am not sure if it is great minds thinking alike, but I am in total agreement with your views. I also think that having the automatic entries perform in the semi final, will be a huge influence on the televoting for the other entries. And you are correct any one of the borderline entries success will depend on the staging and presentation. My home land need to incorporate indigenous cultural elements in the staging to stand out, as both their vocals are fine and the song is solid.

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому

      Thank you 🙏🏻

  • @maikkert1863
    @maikkert1863 Місяць тому +6

    I heard on a podcast that Natalia Barbu from Moldova didn't get the support from the deligation and she will be alone on stage. If this is true, then it is a 100% non-qualifier. The Podcast is Ding-A-Dong, but it is in Dutch, so I doubt that you will understand it. I won't say that everything is true, but in the Podcast, they say that Natalia said it herself

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +2

      Yeah, if she’s on her own, then I don’t see how they could save this

    • @Jakumata
      @Jakumata Місяць тому

      If heard she is working with a technology business in Romania though and see them pulling another of their "budget but really good looking stagings". I bet on ai involment or some video magic at this point ^^ still think it's nq though

  • @victorlenoble6643
    @victorlenoble6643 Місяць тому +2

    I don't know when you shot the video, but Australia has been the tenth qualifier in the odds for more than a week, with Slovenia and Portugal close behind, but behind on all betting providers.

  • @spelaslemensek6302
    @spelaslemensek6302 Місяць тому +10

    Raiven! OMG 😢😢😢😢

  • @zebras54
    @zebras54 Місяць тому +2

    love the magnets

  • @stevenkendall3092
    @stevenkendall3092 Місяць тому +4

    I think if Slovenia and Croatia were in SF2 you would say Serbia as NQ is a no brainer.

  • @JakobESC
    @JakobESC Місяць тому +1

    You literally had the same problems like me with this prediction😭 I thought about it for like 2 hours calculated all the points from 1-12 that would come from each country, changed it over and over, just to realize that i qualified the first 7 songs so i had to change it all again. In the end I decided that the 2 borderline no picks in my opinion would be Australia and Cyprus, but I can totally see Slovenia or Luxembourg NQ'ing. I would still put Serbia (due to 3 Balkan countries voting) and Poland (quite big diaspora, always good at televote) as likely qualifier

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +2

      yea i just cant see ALL 7 of the first songs qualifying, it just breaks too many "qualifying" traditions at once

  • @jonathanv9526
    @jonathanv9526 Місяць тому +3

    Completely off topic. Tom your Guatemala Football shirt is sick, looks so good on you!

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +1

      thank you

  • @trao1938
    @trao1938 Місяць тому +1

    I've been following Eurovision since 2014, and this is the FIRST YEAR that I CANNOT GET a READ on WHICH SONGS I either LIKE or can predict will DO WELL in their semis. I know which songs I LOVE, but then there's a much bigger POOL of songs that I lseem to enjoy almost equally.
    There's also a SLEW of girly-bops and girly-ballads,, and surprisingly I enjoy almost ALL of them. But even if you put a gun to my head, I couldn't give you an honest or definitive ranking for ANY of them.Too many of the songs in this year's contest are equally good. Not great.. but good.
    Long story short- I sincerely believe that this year, the staging and live performances will be more of a determining factor (than ever before) in who goes through to the finals. Excellent staging could make a 'good' song brilliant. With the exception of Croatia and Switzerland, I don't think anyone is a sure bet to advance, including Ukraine. This is a a year when 1 or 2 darkhorses could conceivably emerge out of nowhere and seriously challenge the predicted frontrunners.Over the next two weeks we could see some major game changers. (My semi 1 faves right now are Croatia, Lithuania, and Azerbaijan.)

  • @Xenon_568
    @Xenon_568 Місяць тому

    It will be interesting to see how the 'breaks' that the Big 5 create in the running order will affect the result. Personally I would have put 2 automatic qualifiers in the first halve, since it is so packed with more likely qualifiers

  • @VioletBeyondTheStars
    @VioletBeyondTheStars Місяць тому +8

    I think personally Ireland belongs in likely yes. Bambie is great, they have a great stage presence, song is unlike anything else. The only thing i could see getting it an nq is if vocals flop, but thats unlikely as of now

    • @myrawatters1036
      @myrawatters1036 Місяць тому +5

      Bambie will slay. 😁 grand final, here we come. 🇮🇪

    • @sinead187
      @sinead187 Місяць тому +2

      Agreed💯

  • @kuvattelija
    @kuvattelija Місяць тому +14

    what is my life... why im so excited about magnets 😂

  • @ConESC24
    @ConESC24 Місяць тому +4

    I don't think Cyprus will qualify, they haven't got many close voting allies in this semi, meanwhile Slovenia has with Croatia, Ukraine, Poland and Serbia

  • @TomCatwhick.
    @TomCatwhick. Місяць тому +4

    I think anyone could qualify from this semi-final except for Iceland and Moldova. Anything I don't have in my first two catogories will be deicded by the staging they bring with countries in my last two catogories not very likely to be helped by their stagings.
    100% Qualifying: Ukriane, Croatoa, Lithuana
    (Almost) Guaranteed Qualifying: Finland, Luxembourg
    Borderline Qualifying In: Serbia, Ireland, Slovenia, Australia, Portugal
    Borderline Qualifying Out: Cyprus, Poland, Azerbaijian
    (Almost) Guaranteed Out: Moldova (can qualify if they can pull together a huge staging that is not the national final staging)
    99% Not Qualifying: Iceland

  • @tonylopez-berardinelli4689
    @tonylopez-berardinelli4689 Місяць тому +3

    I wouldn't categorize Ukraine as a ballad, since it's an ethnic song with a rapper. Slovenia is slow but edgier. Portugal and Serbia are the only true ballads and the only two similar songs that could cancel each other out

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому

      i think mood and colour palette wise though, theres an overlap of the 4. but i agree that the strongest one is portugal and serbia

  • @markojovanovic5901
    @markojovanovic5901 Місяць тому +7

    Serbia borderline with better song then 90% of the year... yea no way. Also Servia always has amasing staging and also i feel like ireland will have good staging so those 2 are likely yes

  • @davida3970
    @davida3970 Місяць тому

    @ESCTom do you think if Luxembourg qualifies this might convince Monaco or Andorra to return?

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому

      hmmmmmmmmmmmmm not really. i think the bigger attraction for them would be the slightly preferential treatment LUX seem to be getting this year

  • @Dominic-he7sg
    @Dominic-he7sg 29 днів тому

    I think we can have first three songs qualify in the row, but not the first seven! I'm predicting that Cyprus and maybe Poland are the casualties, but it can (unforunately, as I love that song) also be Serbia.
    Croatia, Ukraine, and Lithuania are the only ones 100% in. Likely Finland too. Everyone else is up in the air. If you'd ask me now:
    - Porugal - last ballad
    - Luxembourg - If Cyprus is NQing, Lux is in

  • @timschnitzel
    @timschnitzel Місяць тому +1

    great tom. i touched the grass and now my screen is all greasy. how dare you. ;)

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +1

      A greasy screen is worth the mental release you feel ❤️

  • @Elessar543
    @Elessar543 Місяць тому +4

    Saying "having those very produced, slightly ethnic songs that somehow stopped working for them" about azerbaijan is hilarious, because there were absolutely some rulechanges that were put in place to stop that very country from cheating right when they started doing worse... pure coincidence I guess

  • @BerryFamily36
    @BerryFamily36 Місяць тому

    Where did you get the circles again

  • @gavindoyle692
    @gavindoyle692 Місяць тому +1

    Where do you get your national magnets from Tom?

    • @Jakumata
      @Jakumata Місяць тому

      He said before he had them custom made in china when he was living there. 😊

  • @erbi3853
    @erbi3853 29 днів тому

    Really interested in hearing your thoughts about Azerbaijan after the first rehearsal, I was personally blown away even by the little they showed us for now! 😳

  • @oehlbormturn
    @oehlbormturn Місяць тому +9

    I was about to listen to music for my workout but this will do just fine :D

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому +3

      💪🏻

  • @vladd896
    @vladd896 Місяць тому

    I was surprised you didn't put Ireland to "likely yes" after the speech you provided (and borderline row alteady felt a bit cluttered). But maybe that's my wishful thinking having them top 2

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Місяць тому

      realistically theyre 4th in the running order, and we have a 4 non qualification streak and we've qualified 1 time in 9 years.
      Ill put them up in the rehearsals are good

  • @davidcatasciavone1109
    @davidcatasciavone1109 Місяць тому +1

    Finland did extremely well in the televote of its NF 2022, and then barely qualified at ESC, and completely flopped in the final, so you shouldn't say that NF televote is enough of a proof that it will do well in the semi/final.

    • @toinenosoite3173
      @toinenosoite3173 29 днів тому +1

      True, but in 2022 the performer, The Rasmus, was very well known and had been popular in Finland for a long time, which probably increased its vote share a lot. W95M was a totally unknown entity to most people, including me, before UMK.

  • @konstantinospapaioannou2588
    @konstantinospapaioannou2588 Місяць тому +3

    Between Cyprus and Luxembourg, Luxembourg is much better and it will go through. Iceland is one thousand per cent out, and I think Slovenia must go through. Portugal should be left out. Joao Borsch would be a sure qualifier. Azerbaijan sends a beautiful ethnic song and I don’t understand why it should not qualify. On the contrary, Australia is ultra forgettable - if not annoying - and I find it unfair if they go through.

  • @Not_Quite_My_Tempo
    @Not_Quite_My_Tempo Місяць тому +1

    Personally I don't see Portugal qualifying. Australia either. Slovenia and Luxembourg are more likely to take their place.
    Otherwise, the rest will probably go as you put them.
    I'm really rooting for Ireland, it's got personality and originality. I know most people will find it too weird perhaps, but I hope they make it to the final.

  • @kv6uf
    @kv6uf Місяць тому +4

    Saying definitely yes to Finland 💙💙 I love those magnets

  • @Saturinus
    @Saturinus 22 дні тому +1

    I'll write down my predictions here. I tried to make a calculation based on several parameters and for technical reasons the automatically qualified are included here. It will be interesting to see how far off I am.
    UK 128,0%
    Sweden 127,1%
    Germany 108,0%
    Croatia 70,3%
    Ukraine 65,7%
    Poland 63,8%
    Lithuania 61,5%
    Ireland 60,3%
    Portugal 55,0%
    Serbia 54,5%
    Finland 54,3%
    Australia 51,1%
    Cyprus 50,1%
    ---------------------
    Luxembourg 48,7%
    Slovenia 47,5%
    Azerbaijan 36,6%
    Moldova 29,4%
    Iceland 29,1%