What Really Happened at the Tourney of Harrenhal (Game of Thrones, Robert's Rebellion)
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- Опубліковано 28 лип 2024
- #GameOfThrones #ASOIAF #RobertsRebellion
Theory video: What really happened at the Tourney of Harrenhal, which led to Robert's Rebellion. Alternate title: why I do not believe the "Southron Ambitions" theory. It doesn't factor in Varys or the Blackfyre theory.
"The memory was still bitter. Old Lord Whent had announced the tourney shortly after a visit from his brother, Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard. With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent's tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. Aerys had not set foot outside the Red Keep since Duskendale, yet suddenly he announced that he would accompany Prince Rhaegar to Harrenhal, and everything had gone awry from there." - A Dance With Dragons, The Kingbreaker
Link to the "Southron Ambitions" theory essay from 2012 on Tower Of the Hand: towerofthehand.com/blog/2012/... - Розваги
*Rhaegar chooses queen of love and beauty* HBO producers: “make sure the camera zooms in on Lyanna and Elia’s faces”
*NO, BY THE SKY DEMON, I SAY "NO"!!*
*_[Slams fist into table, and sweeps everything off my desk with my arm in a fit of rage]_*
"This acting, those faces" - D&D
Counterpoint: Rhaegar could have still paid for the Tourney of Harrenhal to garner support for a coup d'etat but it was powerplayer Varys who saw through this and made his countermove. Just because Varys convinced Aerys to go to Harrenhal doesn't mean he actually paid for it, that's a jump I'm not buying into.
No. Bran is the Knight of the Laughing Tree. He wargs Lyanna and seduces Rhaegar. Bran Stark is Jon Snows mother.
😂😂😂
Holy shit you might just be on to something there.
It’s possible, Euron wargs into people for that.
The best theory I've heard is Rhaegar and Lyanna didn't intend to run off. The were just meeting. However, somehow Brandon came of the belief that he kidnapped her. Considering he was preparing for his wedding to Catelyn at the time, he wouldn't have been looking for his little sister unless someone told him she was missing and Rhaegar "took" her. That's what caused the dominoes to fall. Rhaegar and Lyanna were in there love nest and didn't hear of how things broke down until it was too late.
And who’d be bitter enough to tell such a lie, knowing how much of a hot-head Brandon was...?
@@OcarinaSapphr- Baelish
@@TheCosplayInsanity
It was rhetorical, but yes- that was my thought
Exactly! I heard this theory on InDeepGeek channel, and god does it make all the sense in the world. An addition here: Baelish must have been on his way home after the scandal with pregnant Lysa, and Brandon possibly learnt about this other insult and wasn't going to keep him alive this time. So telling Brandon that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna was probably the only way to protect himself. And coincidentally, that's how Baelish discovered his power, after seeing the series of events unfold.
@@pushista9322
Yes!
It was arguably dumb luck, in some ways- but the whole realm had a greater or lesser sense of what Aerys' reaction to a threat against his son & heir would be. You wouldn't need to be a genius to guess the end-result of such a confrontation.
LF saw all that followed, & through it- saw his way forward to power; calculate on character, to learn how people will react to things- what they will do in a given situation, & what they won't - see how much of a push they need, to be moved in a certain direction.
He didn't need to make big, grandiose manipulations, small incremental moves over time got him where he is - I also personally think that people 'knowing' LF *wanted* the Iron Throne is a fallacious assumption; people have bought into the whole 'King of the Ashes' concept D&D set out- yes, it was a good scene between good characters & sold by excellent actors- & yes, LF's a 'master of chaos', but it never made sense to me - he's a classic 'power behind the throne'-type, an _eminence grise_ as the French say- he thrives on the manoeuvring & manipulation - but with all that he's accomplished by the end of 'Dance', & where his plans appear to be going in 'Winds', he doesn't _need_ to take the Iron Throne- he can essentially hold the realm to ransom; the rest of Westeros bar Dorne & the Vale was wrecked by the Wars of the 5 Kings- & the aftermath is scarcely proving any less bloody. He's in prime position, just where he is...
Varys is totally a blackfyre , he was cut because he has kings blood and he is bald like Egg in order to hide his pale hair.
Please do more Theories,or at least give your Expectations of what could REALISTICALLY HAPPEN in universe,and what YOUR PERSONAL HOPES and MOST ANTICIPATED MOMENTS your waiting to see play out
While I do believe that Varys is currently conspiring to put a Blackfyre pretender on the throne, I don't believe he was involved with the Tourney at Harrenhal for a number of reasons. First, the cost. If we use the Hand's Tourney from the first book, where the combined prizes totaled 90,000 Gold Dragons, as a benchmark for an expensive, but not grandiose, tourney, and Harrenhal was said to have prizes three times that Tywin Lannister had offered 5 years earlier at the Tourney of Lannisport, then I wouldn't be surprised the total prize purse at Harrenhal topped 500,000. Add in the actual costs to throw the tourney in the first place, and I doubt that Varys could pull together that kind of money. He's stated to be rich, but not that rich. Surely there would've been cheaper ways to sow dissension in the Seven Kingdoms and spark a civil war.
Second, you claim that Aerys' presence at the Tourney didn't benefit Rhaegar. I beg to differ. Aerys' descent into full-blown madness came about after the Defiance at Duskendale, but because he'd refused to leave the Red Keep for nearly 4 years following that event, only those who were around him on a daily basis were there to witness it. How was Rhaegar supposed to convince all the Lords of Westeros that his father was unfit to rule when no one had seen Aerys for years, and when Aerys hadn't done anything overtly insane yet? He needed to prove his father's insanity, and having him parade about in front of most of the nobility of Westeros did that in one brilliant stroke. And as for why Rhaegar didn't move immediately against his father? Well, just because everyone saw that Aerys was insane didn't mean they were prepared to move against him on the spot. Rhaegar needed time afterwards to build up support after the Tourney once he'd seen who might support him, and that would take time, especially since he'd need to tread lightly now that Aerys was actively suspicious.
Third, Varys' timeline doesn't really work. Varys arrived in Westeros a year or so after Duskendale, which was around three years before Harrenhal. There's even a chance he arrived before Rhaegar and Elia were betrothed, let alone married. If Young Griff is supposed to be a Blackfyre pretender, but around Aegon's age, then he didn't exist yet when Varys got to Westeros. So who exactly was Varys supposedly destabilizing the Targaryen regime for? Himself? Who would support a eunuch, who can't produce heirs, as King?
I could go on, but this is too long already. In summary, no, I don't believe Varys was involved in planning the Tourney at Harrenhal as a plot to put a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne, because he didn't yet have anyone to put there. I think that his existing plan didn't take shape until after the Targaryens fell (after all, how could he plan to give Young Grif to Jon Connington to raise before Connington was exiled?). And as for why Rhaegar seemingly abandoned his long-term plans to depose his father through diplomacy? Well, I personally think his hand was forced, but that's a different story, though I'd be happy to share my thoughts on that if you'd like.
Illyrio is potentially rich enough to fund the tourney, though I agree with your points overall
@@made-line7627 True, but the logistics of Illyrio funding the Tourney are too much of a stretch in my mind. He's based in Pentos, 2-3 weeks round trip by sea from KL, where Varys was. Since the raven network doesn't extend to Essos, this means either months of back and forth messaging between the two just to hash out everything, or one of them travelling to meet the other. Then there's the physical money itself. While Illyrio likely has business interests on both continents, I find it unlikely that he has hundreds of thousands of Gold Dragons sitting around, seeing as they're a foreign currency to him. While the Free Cities did have banks, doing a currency exchange on that scale would've greatly increased the total costs, and then there's the issue of actually shipping all that money to Harrenhal. Frankly it would've been impossible to hide the scale of a currency shipment like that, and would've drawn far to much attention from pirates and highwaymen as it wound it's way to Harrenhal. No, the money to fund this tourney had to already be in Westeros, and as I said before, if Varys had ready access to those kinds of funds, he'd have spent them better.
@@made-line7627
I don't think there's any reason to suppose that Rhaegar didn't fund the tourney for the suggested reasons.
Quite possibly he was following the advice of Varys, offered in bad faith.
@@AC4ace True that
I like the the Order of The Greenhand's theory that Tywin was the secret benefactor paying for the tournament.
I've been thinking Varys is a secret Blackfyre supporter for so long that I forgot it's not the official cannon. I'd love a theory video on why he & Illyrio didn't just kill Dany & Viserys since they've been grooming Griff to be king from birth
It seems plausible to me that they considered them useful auxiliaries and/or substitutes if Aegon died or proved recalcitrant.
@@alanpennie8013 It seems that way but Varys & Illyrio weren't exactly looking out for Dany & Viserys. I mean, he was mocked as the Beggar King and eventually killed, a fate Dany could've easily met after Drogo's death
@@lordzhiroofhousefuxgiven6147
They could probably have saved Viserys from insanity by offering a little TLC.
Perhaps they were afraid of attracting attention from Robert though
I don’t think it matters to Varys whether it’s Griff, Viserys, or Dany, because in the end the optics are all that matter; a kid with silver-gold hair and purple eyes can pass as both Targaryen and Blackfyre. As long as they had someone with these features, they had a pawn they could groom and install and manipulate as they saw fit, and present their pawn as whatever bloodline of which the realm approves most. If it is true that Varys and Mopatis are indeed Blackfyre conspirators, then they win in either case. Only now it’s just down to Griff and Dany, and unless they’re planning to wed the two when Dany lands, it’s obvious who their favorite is.
@@a.j.carter2294
Atm their primary mission should be assassinating Arianne, but perhaps she's beyond their reach.
More theory videos please 👍👍
You, off the cuff, explaining in one take beats some well-researched video SERIES about the tourney. Your vids are long, sure, but so dense. Great job!
Well I researched it before I made it and had notes on hand, to read off the quotes.
Wow-fantastic video!
Please, do more theory vids?
It’s Jaehaerys, ‘til George tells me otherwise...
Littlefinger was the only begetter of The War of The Five Kings so it balances things if Varys created a huge civil war too.
Awesome video, really great stuff!
However, I doubt that Varys is the mastermind behind the tourney:
1. How would Varys be able to pay for the tourney? As far as we know Varys is not a particularly rich person. I don't see how he could be wealthier than Lord Whent..
2. Would Ser Oswell Whent, Kingsguard and apparently very loyal to Rhaegar, truly engage in the plots of Varys, even as a messenger, without informing the king, Rhaegar or both?
I rather think that Rhaegar plotted the tourney, and Varys saw an opportunity to destabilize the Targaryens, being the manipulator and opportunist he is.
Anyway, anyone got clues who Varys might be supporting at this time as a Blackfyre? Or is he only scared that Rhaegar will be such an awesome king with a peaceful realm that he took all these actions to support an unborn, or recently born, Young Griff? Seems like a long shot for such a schemer..
The parallel between Rhaegar possibly being the secret backer for the tourney at Harrenhal, and Daemon II being the "leader" of the tourney of Whitewalls is interesting, as they are both princes with a strong belief in prophecy. The difference of course is that Rhaegar was far more capable and intelligent than Daemon ever was. If he truly was the secret backer, I think it's far more likely that it was simply the first big step in a long-term plan to overthrow his father, especially if he was only going to do so after he had a third child. Which would coincide nicely with Jon's birth and how he told Jaime that when he returned from the Battle of the Trident that "Changes will be made"
If Rhaegar was truly inteligent he would never run away with Lyanna.
Better. Getting back to theory
Inveetigative journalism is your niche, but your books theory videos is our hearts' desire
Who started the rumor that that she was abducted?
In Deep Geek has a video on that, which I think works quite well.
@@AC4ace well I haven’t seen it but I’m gonna take a wild guess and say he says it’s either little finger or Varys ?
@@claymccarver6446 It's a good video, and less than half the length of this one. Check it out, ua-cam.com/video/IoMoxg6iN-w/v-deo.html
A theory video I watched suggested that Rhaegar *wanted* to rally opposition, but gave up once Aerys happened to show up. Writing that down, it feels a little weak.
Two things: Rhaegar could not have paid for the tourney as the only way he could have got the money was from the royal treasury, which he could not have done without attracting attention, and, no matter what is Varys' goals were, he is much more of the paranoia stoker, rather than a provider of the useful information. The only time he actually supplied actionable intelligence was to Tyrion, and Tyrion was famously a possible dissenting link within the family in power. I still think that the "Antler Men" conspiracy information was fed to Varys by Baelish, as it advanced his debt plans
Good to see such a deep diving video again. I hope you will do a similar one on the prospective fate of the One True King Stannis in the upcoming books.
Rhaegar was most likely feeling out the lords, though Varys was likely behind some of it. I also think Elia was aware of everything between Rhaegar and Lyanna, hell he took Lyanna to Dorne for godssake. Also Rhaegar couldn't join the rebellion since Aerys had Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon, so we know Aerys didn't trust him to lead his armies without insurance. Varys is a definitely Blackfyre supporter.
Thanks for an interesting video, Ser Dragon. Refreshing with some good book theories, with all the TV stuff going on at the moment.
Varys definitely is a Blackfire supporter
I feel first published Martin's novel - "Dying of the Light" resonates with characters of Rhaegar, Lyanna and Robert and even schemer character very similar to Varys.
Arkin looks like Varys and even has blonde hair, and his character is a mixture of Littlefinger and Varys. He despises those stronger than him as animals a little bit like Littlefinger, but he is simpering and effeminate like Varys. If Jaanthony is the Rhaegar in this picture, then Rhaegar got played by Varys like a fiddle. Heck, even Garse is the spitting image of Jon Connington, except Connington doesn't have the bitter sardonic humour of Garse's. Garse is violent, imposing and angry like Connington though.
In my opinion Dirk is more of a weak Ned or an insecure Quentyn than any parallel to Robert.
@@psevdhome Yep even protagonist is called rogue, has initials D.T and is to fight a duel with one eyed foe that puts gem in his empty eye socket, kind of like in Dance of the Dragons.
@@anarion211983 That is a cool parallel! I never thought of it that way. And also their duel is set up very early in the Dance and it sort of build tension while they are trying to find eachother, just like Dirk and Bretan.
Aemon is set loose after Aegon is mortally wounded, like Bretan is after Chel is killed in a duel.
With all these parallels it makes me think Gwen is like Lyanna, a woman loving different men and trying to navigate through the world made by men. What was Lyanna intending to do after the war, if Rhaegar won, did she say to him, like Gwen to Jaan: "if you fight him I will leave you", and Rhaegar was torn between his house and his love...
Interesting take! I like the idea of Varis rushing things.
But I am not sure about him organizing the tournament. It seemed that there was a plot to make Rhaegar win. Barristan though that if he had been a better knight.. it almost seemed that he had lost to Rhaegar on purpose. Because Barristan told Dany that Rhaegar was not super successful with tournaments.
around 1:03:16 you talk about George telling Linda and Elio when did he conceive that Bloodraven is the cave dude. Where did you get that piece of info?
When I first saw a video saying there was going to be a Broadway play of the Tourney at Harrenhall, I really, really hoped it was an April Fool's joke...
It seems the scheme to oust Aerys was foiled on two fronts: Aerys’ s appearance & Rhaegar’s enthrallment with Lyanna. A murderous monarch’s presence would give pause to the (many, I’m sure) reluctant vassals on hand. Rhaegar’s preoccupation with mysticism focused on Lyanna and kept Him from adjusting on the fly to salvage the coalition
Your theory vids are best when your reference your knowledge of medieval history, its awesome
which part?
technically you can get an annulment for a marriage you have had kids with King Henry the 8th got an annulment from Catherine of Aragon they had a daughter Mary but they then had many still born kids he got annoyed and was able to get an annulment under weird circumstances yes but it still happen lol
You think dorne as a whole would like losing power over the realm? No they wouldn't and they honestly didn't care about the war until ellia was in danger to send thier soldiers and oberyn didn't want to avenge the Targarean he wanted to avenge Ellia after the war by trying to start another one. Remember he said he was as close to ellia as Jaime was to cersie.
Now imagine rhegar disinheriting both his daughter and aegon smashhead and lyanna having a kid as the main wife now then the question becomes who is heir now? The girl(no) smashhead? No. It's lyannas kid and that itself would have lead to two sides problem not counting Robert or Brandon if this fairy tale situation where nobody is angry at rhegar for doing this happens if everyone is cool with it.
That would be the most dumbfuck pollitical act by an ASOIAF character. Makes no sense at all for Rhaegar to annul his marriage and make his 2 firsborn children illegitimate. I think it is more likely Rhaegar tried to get away with polygamy than he did in fact annul his marriage with Elia.
@@targaryen7029 I said that too but show only fans don't understand this fact.
Some examples of this Include renly trying to set up margery with Robert since the Tyrell have as much wealth as Lannister so wile tywin would be dishonored same as cersies kids it had better backing.
Even joffery who is crazy still understood that a marriage contract was binding even by word of the king until a septan annulled it by technicality as Ned was a traitor in thier eyes so Sansa was removed before the wedding.
Rhegar would have pised off the dornish and they are very rebellious to say in a PG way. They didn't even care if the Targarean were winning. Only if thier rights were there with dornish Targarean kids when ellia was sent to kings landings as a prisoner to make the dornish send spears to help.
Also the whole mad king demanding Ned and Roberts heads the head of the houses added to the fire of never fixing this issue
@@ivanbluecool True. Pollitically, the annulment is a disaster. And as Dragon Demand's already mentioned in the video, it is very hard to annul a marriage in Westeros. With 2 born children? Nah. I don't buy this. This "annulment plot" only happened in the show. It won't happen in the books.
Henry the 8th was only able to do that based off the argument that her previous marriage to his brother had been consummated thus making their marriage incesty in the eyes of the church at the time (which was still waging a century's moral crusade against incest by the nobles at that time so there were pretty extreme definitions on both sides, nobles lost technically marrying your cousin is no longer ok no matter what her lands look like or how big a castle she has, technically because they moved to marrying second cousins instead). The other wives were all got by adultery then the axe (or the sword in the first case) or he himself never consummating the marriage (only after which was a marriage viewed legally binding at the time).
Honestly I want to see this play as George has a whole book full of knowledge in this tourney and it's better this way instead of "show runners" pushing up faces rather than actual Character
I agree. This play might be actually very good and solve all the mysteries about this Tourney without being a fanfic from dumb showrunners. GRRM will be in this so that means we'll get in-canon information. What really happened there.
@@targaryen7029 yeah it seems a very good idea as goerge is better at plays closer to books than shows where you need to entertain
I think we're getting a Broadway musical, aren't we? I read it somewhere...
Was it official or just a dumb joke?
@@luciamota1249 it's official and George is working on it. Frankly it's a Better idea to show the tourney with ACTUAL play actors who don't use thier face for emotional stuff but thier whole body to tell a story.
But yeah we'll see how that pans out.
The question I keep coming back to is this: If Young Griff, backed by Varys or anyone else, is a Blackfyre, why is Jon Connington on board and fostering him? Jon Connington was Rhaegar's best friend, and served as the Mad Kings Hand during part of Robert's rebellion. Anyone have any thoughts on what Old Griff's reason to care for and support a Blackfire pretender and work with the Golden Company?
Connington may not know the truth of young griff's heritage. Young Griff believes he's Rhaegar's child.
@@luffyjam
You'd have to think that the attitude of The Golden Company ought to make him suspicious.
@@alanpennie8013 True. I think his love for Rhaegar and the trauma from the Battle of the Bells keeps him blind. He may see too late.
With the evidence you have given I would say it’s fairly obvious that Varys is a blackfire supporter if we found out he was the one who came up with the abduction story I think that would be the nail in his coffin because no way a Loyalist would start that rumor if he really was a R supporter.
I LOVE THIS SO MUCH!!!
If you're doing more theory videos on the rebellion. I think that Rhaegars child with Lyana Stark was Danaerys. Danys memories about the door and the lemon fit more with dorne, and we know ned took atleast the sword of the morning down to dorne. This would make Dany more a child during a storm of swords.
And Jon Snows mother was Ashara Dayne, and Ned was the father. The political alliance with the tullys kept them apart, or rather the death of Neds brother that should have married the Tullys.
I think the reverse, Ashara is Dany's mother. I think Quaithe is Ashara.
After Aerys heard the news about Rhaegar's death at Trident, he sent the pregnant Queen Rhaella and 8-year-old Viserys to Dragonstone, where Daenerys was born soon after the Sack of King's Landing. Viserys and infant Dany escaped the island with the help of ser Willem Darry of the Kingsguard.
Ned found Lyanna in the Tower of Joy, in the northern edge of the Red Mountains of Dorne, after leaving King's Landing to first lift the siege of Strom's End. Lyanna was found lying on a "bed of blood" and dying of fever, which most likely implies she died of birth complications, as in she had just given birth recently.
Willem Darry's escape and Lyanna's child's birth don't match up, let alone how would Darry be able to even aqcuire the babe from Dorne and why wouldn't Viserys notice anything? There really is nothing to point that Dany would be the child of Lyanna.
Also, while Ned sure had a crush on Ashara and most people think she's Jon's mother, it's more likely that Brandon is the father of Ashara's child. Barristan Selmy tells the story of the Tourney of the Harrenhall to Dany and also how Ashara (who he had a crush on) was "dishonoured" during the tourney. Yet there's never any ill feelings between Eddard and Barristan during their many encounters. Also it was Brandon who had to go ask Ashara to dance with Ned, because Ned himself was too meek and shy to ask. Jumping into sex the same night seems implausible for our young Ned. But not for Brandon. There's also no narrative evidence of it in Eddard's own chapters, all mentions of Ned and Ashara come from other characters or POVs.
The problem is at the time of Robert's Rebellion, the potential Blackfyre was a baby, at best. Young Griff might not have even been born yet. It's established the Blackfyre's died out in the male line. That leaves Griff's mother as a Blackfyre. If they couldn't get much support for male Blackfyres in the past, then a female one would have been near impossible.
Great video but hey, the identity of tKotLT is still very much open for debate. Whomever it is the "booming" voice has to be accounted for and that fits neither Lyanna or Howland. Unless you take into account that Howland visited, then prayed to for help jousting, the Green Men. I believe they either took control of, or somehow enhanced Howlands abilities. This explains the deep booming voice and how an untrained crannogman jousted so well. There is certainly precedent in the books that the strongest greenseers can take over an unwilling host so I have no problem believing they could take over a willing host. We're told repeatedly that crannogmen live closer to the environment and know things others have forgotten. I will however concede the possibility that I'm right about the skin changing but that Lyanna was the one changed into instead of Howland. That would explain how she won the jousts and def explains why Rheagar was so interested in her. When you think about it the skin changing theory makes allot more sense than a teenage girl or a boy the size of a 4th grader going 3 for 3 against fully grown trained knights.
Elia was probably the influence for Rhaegar to think having an affair wasn't a problem.
Have you read the Harrenhal Conspiracy? It answers a lot of these questions about the time delay between the tourney Rhaegar's abduction; the reason the council meeting never happened and no action was taken and also provides a goal for the Southron alliance.
I think Jon's true name is Aemon, cause Rhaegar was on the prophecy hype train so I guess he thought lyanna would birth a daughter, visenya I'd guess. When lyanna had a boy, I think she would choose a name from famous songs or famous targs, such as Aemon, the dragon knight
And Rhaegar was very close with *Maester* Aemon
I once read a theory on reddit about Jon being actually named Aemon, and it was explained by the fact that in medieval writings there was certain "creature" named Amon (or something like that) and it was a mix of wolf and dragon features.
I think Jon bein named Aemon would be plausible or at least totally cool haha.
I do agree there was someone orchestrating everything "a la Littlefinger". Could have been Varys, idk. That doesn't remove the fact that 4 of the great families made 2 marriages pacts between them, which hadn't ever happened (from what I could surmise), and a fostering involving the brother of a participant of the marriage pact, and other of the parts of the pact. All this even having different RELIGION! Remember Winterfell's young maestre was the son of an archmaestre with a Hightower girl. Said archmaestre (Wallgrave)was best friends with Cressen (Storms End). Then Luwin ends up as Winterfell's new maestre, when their young maestre disappeared and was "pressumed dead". All coincidences, right? I'm sure some of the Hightowers, the maestres and the faith of the 7 were in league to take down house Targaryen SINCE THE BEGINNING. I think it was some Hightower during the conquest that profecised: if house Hightower ever takes up arms against the Targaryen, the Hightower and Oldtown would be burned. I think there you have the "financiers" of the tourney. Remember how in the "battle of the bells" the septons sounded the bells to alert the rebels of the coming of the loyalist army..
You can't tell me in the rebellion there where just 2 sides. I'm sure it was much more complex. Sure there are the 2 sides you say are the "main", Raeghar loyalists vs Aerys loyalists, but there were NONE anti Targaryens in al this mess? After all that has happened? Come on...
Come to think about it, probably all Kingsguard houses were probably involved in financing the tourney of Harrenhall.
Yes the whole plot is game of thrones between Varis and Little finger
Very interesting theory that I find myself agreeing with. It also creates another nice parallel between Rhaegar and Jon Snow.
Both Rhaegar and Jon have grand plans that will take years to come to fruition. Both plans are kiboshed by a master schemer (Varys and Littlefinger respectively). Of course, for this to work, Littlefinger must have been the one to send the Pink Letter.
I haven't read the books so feel free to correct me on the timeline. Do you think Rhaegar and Lyanna fled a year later because she found out she was pregnant and knew for sure it wasn't Robert's? I'm not sure on the timeline so if that doesn't line up feel free to correct me on that.
....over a year later she wouldn't be pregnant from Rhaegar at the tourney. She died at the Tower of Joy from bloodloss from a recent childbirth
@@thedragondemands5186 gotcha. I wasn't sure if they were meeting in secret during that year gap and that's how she got pregnant.
Why do you think that Lyanna had sex with Robert? They were only engaged and living very much apart. Unless you think of rape but Robert would never rape Ned's sister, especially if she was going to marry him anyway.
Edit: I just read your first words, you haven't read the books. Ok, that explains a lot!
“Robert would be annoyed, but the Starks wouldn’t.” You cannot be serious. If Rhaegar had already married Lyanna, the Starks would be very annoyed. If he hadn’t married her, then they would be furious. Betrothal wasn’t a frivolous thing in feudal societies, and a dalliance between Rhaegar and Lyanna meant that she was ruined for marriage to another lord except maybe an insignificant one.
Given this is based on medieval culture, the concept of "just betrothed" is not a thing. Betrothals were considered as binding as marriage contracts. Richard III had his nephews declared illegitimate because his brother, Edward IV, had been betrothed to someone else prior to marrying Elizabeth Woodville.
In fact, the whole Young Griff narrative is partially based on the story of Perkin Warbeck, who claimed to be Edwards younger son, Richard of Shrewsbury (one of the Princes in the Tower). The story is loyalists spirited him away to save his life. I doubt Martin would use the "just betrothed" argument considering how familiar he was with the era he's drawn much of the story from.
He was trying to get the targs overthrown and expelled to Essos to live like the blackfyres had... tywin screwed up the plan.
Kinda wish you did a pirate impression when you said “well their just guidelines.”
Protip: if you're gonna make a pretty condescending theory video, maybe avoid statements like 'the maesters were apolitical'
Has anyone ever noticed how Varys got Kevan and Pycell killed? They were Lannisters dying the very same way that Rhaegar's children(multiple stabbed and head crushed)
That's something that always has bothered me, I mean why? Why did Varys do it like that?
Or am I just over reacting and over reaching? Haha
THAT is super interesting! I don't know what to do with the info but im not going to forget it :D
You asked at the end of the video what do we think, so here it is: I do think Varys is a part of this, but I think he had another brain in it.
A brain with actual money. Tywin Lannister. They both knew how to manipulate Aerys. They both had something in it. And in the end, they both had a similar cause.
The last one might be bolox, but let me explain:
Tywin is a pragmatic. War is bad for trade. He kept the kingdom prosperous as the Hand. His goal is to convince as many lords as possible that replacing Aerys (with Rhaegar most probably) is the best thing to do. If that is accomplished, then fewer lords would complain and bring up arms when Aerys was eventually replaced.
Varys also wants to keep the peace. Why? He is grooming baby-Aegon.
If Aegon is indeed a Blackfire, Varys and Illyrio most likely already had plans for grooming a Blackfire child. The moment Rhaegar had a son, they could swap those babies and somehow kill off Elia (she was reportedly sickly) and Rhaegar of course.
Varys says it himself to Kevin Lannister that for Aegon to be the better choice, it is needed that at the moment of Aegon's arrival Westeros is in war. A quiet replacement in the background is better than open war, both Varys and Tywin see this perfectly well.
So in any option, at the moment when Harenhall is being planned, to both Rhaegar was the obvious choice to back and replace Aerys. They both were in KL with Rhagear for a long time. Tywin openly says at Duskendale for Rhaegar "we have a better king right here".
Varys might have secret money, but not as much money as Tywin.
Do we really think Tywin would not somehow know what was happening on Harrenal? That he did not find it suspicious of Whent having so much money and knew there was something in the background?
Doesn't matter though. Both were screwed over by the erratic arrogant narcissist. I am talking ofc about Rhaegar.
The second Dunk and Egg was published between ASOS and AFFC, not between ACOK and ASOS.
Would it be crazy to think there are some parallels between Dany and Eren Yeager or Young Griff and Zeke Yeager?
Great video by the way!
I'd talk about that parallel more in videos if I thought it had more crossover appeal between the two fandoms. Also Lelouch from Code Geass.
Dany isn't crazy. All her acts while justice filled(in books the show is dead to me) she still felt extremely bad for them as the moment passed her because she has compassion and doesn't want to hurt others just rule.
Even viserys who lead to his own downfall she still thought of up until the end where she finally let go of thinking she could have helped him
So please don't compare Eren the monster to Dany the gray. Also if you want garbage time travel try bran
@@ivanbluecool Well I was only talking about the Dany that we got by Season 8 but I understand if you don't consider that much to go by.
@@ConorOnUA-cam not really as the show didn't make sense to itself so it would easier to yourself to not compare with the show.
Mad king in books was more so Eren in how he was trying to blow up the city killing everyone as he rather nobody rule if he didn't.
@@ivanbluecool that's also true, I was thinking of Dany more since she has an apparent relative with similar motives just like how Eren and Zeke are related.
You are aware, that winter stroke back with full force right after the Tourney of Harrenhal. The Blackwater river froze in that mini-winter. That means, that there was no way to start a direct rebellion, becouse of that winter. Even if Raegar wantet to do something immediately, he couldn´t, becouse it was winter and everyone was stuck at home. So your big counterpoint doesn´t hold up.
....but Rhaegar had hoped to win support from the Great Houses, to overthrow his father with a COUNCIL, he told Jaime he'd wanted to hold a Great Council - without bloodshed. It was never Rhaegar's hope to actually march to war, and winter wouldn't really affect that.
I mean, varys only, confirmed, action at harranhall was getting the king to show up. He could have done so to show the mad king to more reclusive lords, to pave the way for future negotiations. Note that we get that year of nothing happening afterwards. If varys was being an accelorationist then why do nothing for a year?
What kicks things off, is Brandon Stark rushing to kings landing, thinking that raegar has gone there. Who sent him there? Or did he just rush off like an idiot. Varys could have done it, sure, but we have no evidence of him doing so and he isn't there. Littlefinger on the other hand is there (at riverrun, where Brandon was before rushing off to kings landing).
If varys was to whisper to the angry Brandon, and wanted to accelorate chaos / destruction of the targareons, why not send him to the actual location?
I guess varys could have been the one to instigate the king into killing the starks... that could fit with the blackfyres. But it is kinda random if his plot was to have the targareons fight each other. Instead we get a unified targ force versus a weaker rebel faction. That should have lost.
I always thought Varys' plan was to plant the seeds for Targaryen Civil War between Rhaegar and Aerys, hopefully to kill off both of them. Rhaegar's children would propably be moved away into hiding during the war (like with Jaehaera and Maelor during Dance of Dragons) and a babe could be easily switched with another by agents of Varys. Wars can take years and who would be left afterwards to claim this babe or a toddler isn't Aegon?
Also, I'm surprised people forget that Tourney of Harrenhall and Lyanna's "kidnapping" had a 1 year gap. Rhaegar definitely found and confronted Lyanna. I do believe Rhaegar talked to her about the PtwP phrophecy and the upcoming Long Night and that Lyanna became somewhat a "believer" and eventually went with Rhaegar willingly. She was also evidently not so happy, or at least doubtful, of her bethrothal with Robert, which propably affected in her decision to run off
My only comment about R + L actually falling in love is that R. was in his early to mid 20s while L was 14 or 15. Even in world this is considered off.
...not really. If she's old enough to be betrothed to Robert Baratheon.
@@thedragondemands5186 betrothal is different from marriage. If she was considered an adult her fate would have sent her off right after the Tournament
@@brianmorris4446 She would likely marry at a pretty young age, as most of girls in Westeros did. Rhaella married at 13 and nobody saw a big deal with this. Viserra Targaryen was 14 and she married a very old Lord Arryn so...Lysa Tully married a much older Lord Jon Arryn. It wasn't a big deal or problematic in Westeros society.
@@brianmorris4446 People ship Sansa x Sandor Clegane and the problem is Rhaegar and Lyanna? Nah.
@@brianmorris4446 If at 16 yo teens aren't considered adults in Westeros, then why Robb was said to be "a man grown" with 16 years? The ending age of minority in Westeros is 16. Lyanna was already a woman by Westeros' standards.
Why would he support the blackfyres though. When reading the history of Westeros did he truly believe they had the rightful king from the start or has he effectively been brainwashed, growing up hearing stories of how good the blackfyres were when living in Essos ?
I still don't know why some people still buy that "Southron Ambitions" fanfic theory...Honestly, it is infuriating. There's no PROOF in the books except that biased anti-Stark Barbrey Dustin line about it.
There is the point that the intermarriage of great houses was novel, and pretty evidently a potential danger to The Targaryens.
Without dragons they would be extremely vulnerable to a coalition of high lords.
Which is not to say that at the tourney the nascent Arryn/Baratheon/Stark/Tully alliance had any nefarious intentions.
They were probably just rallying to Rhaegar and/or trying to protect themselves.
But the implied concentration of power was concerning to those outside the alliance.
I agree ordering Robert's arrest and likely execution was a key. He might have just challenged Rhaegar one on one, otherwise. Ned wasn't the important player. He was a second son, not trained to be a Lord Paramount. He was cut off from his base. He wasn't the gung ho sort and probably wouldn't have gone on a revenge quest just on his own.
While I've entertained the "Southern Ambitions" theory, it never sat completely right with me. Personally when it comes to Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn, Steffon Baratheon, and Hoster Tully, I think the only "Southern Ambitions" they harbored weren't particularly southern and more just geared towards maintaining better relations through friendships, alliances, and marriages outside their kingdoms. And honestly that's the smart thing to do. It's not good when kingdoms isolate themselves and/or other people isolate other kingdoms. We see this with how people regard the North, Dorne, and the Iron Islands and we see the reverse happening where those kingdoms in turn are also criticizing the other kingdoms for not accepting them as well. So yes, I think because they managed to forge and maintain their friendships, they thought they'd utilize it for the good of their family and kingdoms as well. :)
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I think you are completely right about Varys and I think it does make sense that he was creating chaos in order to go about with his plots. It honestly just makes more sense that Varys had his own schemes the whole time, or at least most of the time, he's been in Westeros. And if Varys is a Blackfyre himself (hence why he may have been needed for that spell) getting a Blackfyre on the throne in Westeros could have been a lifelong goal that finally bore fruit if he did have a sister (or some other female relation) who birthed Young Griff during the time he was whispering into Aerys' ear. :)
The shows explanation was rushed but the High Septon is according to Kevan Lannister is "The High Septon speaks for the Seven here on earth. Strike at him, and you are striking at the gods themselves."
Sounds alot like a Pope. So in theory the High Septon could change the doctrine in regards to annulments but I do prefer your theory of polygamy technically being legal but frowned upon and that is the path to legitimacy.
The Pope can't just undo doctrine on that scale at whim and more importantly, in secret. They'd have to at least tell the Most Devout (College of Cardinals) about this! Otherwise, if no one publicly knows he secretly had an "annulment"...everyone will functionally think their son is a bastard anyway.
I don't believe in southron ambitions and the whole Varys/Blackfyres either. There's just a lot of stuff that goes against that.
before i listen..my theory has a lot to do with Ashara Dayne....ok...*presses play*
Do you think Rhaegar abandoned Lyanna out of disappointment at the birth of a boy, or do you think Rhaegar really was in love with Lyanna and only left the tower because war duty called?
This is a big question imo
I don't see why a boy would disappoint him
@@thedragondemands5186 Didn't he want another girl to re-construct the "Aegon + Rhaenys + Visenya" dynamic? Or do I have this wrong?
@@mschell8022 not necessarily....but ser, Lyanna died from childbirth to Jon WEEKS AFTER Rhaegar died. She was dying when Ned got there weeks after the Trident.
@@thedragondemands5186 Very interesting, I missed that little factual bit of timeline dates
Who started the rumor that Lyanna was kidnapped?
The Usurper?
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How do you figure? Robert wasn't at River Run he was still in the Vale. Brandon went from River Run to Kingslanding to confront Rehgar. I doubt Robert had even heard about it until after Brandon had already been taken hostage
Like how the idiot tully started the war by kidnapping the Imp
It was just some random person who probably told them as lyanna had a royal party with her so regardless of her going willingly or kidnapping y rhegar news comes out
In Deep Geek has a video on that, which I think works quite well.
@@ivanbluecool
No she didn't.
Littlefinger started the war.
Cat's action was entirely reasonable given the information available to her at the time.
@@alanpennie8013 little finger was stabbed by Brandon and was left dying so you would need to convince me that Brandon both nearly killed little finger and then heard the news from little finger that lyanna was kidnapped by rhegar at the same time. Tell me who told tywin who kidnapped Tyrion to then send the mountain out to kill people because of the idiot Tully? Go on I'll wait.
Also yes it's cats fault. That's like if Sansa was thought to have killed joffery so they try to kill jon snow instead which is what cat basically did by going after another member of the house who had nothing to do with it and for example her son is still alive(she never went back to see him) and she does this while oberyn who's sister was killed by the mountain didn't go around killing the Lannister members yet had more anger over the years
honestly cat wanted to leave winterfell so badly she beat the royal party over there which she shouldn't have gone anyways to then both set up Ned working with little finger and then taking Tyrion who helped bran with his riding saddle with a room of Bannermen who all didn't get up to help as the show is cat's version of this event where everyone gets up instead of only a few which tyrion has to not laugh at her for how stupid she was. Don't try to convince me cat was smart here she wasn't and if she actually cared about her kids she would have left for home immediately or never have left in he first place which she did both.
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