MORE LOSSES to come for Backpack Grey Watch Dealers? UK Recession sets back Rolex Market growth
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- Опубліковано 21 лют 2024
- Well, well, well it seems the apocalyptic soothsayers were right. Its official the UK has plunged into recession, every single video we’ve made on the luxury goods market this past two years has carried a comments section dominated with armchair experts warning that a recession is coming and things are going to get worse.
Whilst the governor of the Bank of England has remarked that “the UK recession may already be over and there are now "distinct signs of an upturn…A recession is a recession, be it deep or shallow it is absolutely not what the luxury watch market needs following 18 months of stagnation.
In all honesty we didn’t think this would transpire, just 2 weeks ago I predicted grey market prices would reach stasis in the second half of this year with growth potentially in the final quarter. The headline is just that a headline and it doesn’t really effect the economic outlook for the rest of the year but here’s why it does have an immediate impact on Rolex and could set back my growth forecasts by many months…
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Sorry to go on a rant, but your video got me thinking about what is wrong with the luxury watch market in general. Before the Pandemic, you had your portfolio of investments, and your watch collection. Then either Morgan Stanley or Bloomberg started hyping your watch collection as "an investment". Many middle class people were suckered into this mindset, aided & abetted by the boiler room muppets hawking watches on UA-cam. For the record, watches are not investments. They are meant to be worn and enjoyed. If they hold their value great, but most collectors never sell. One last observation for Rolex, by their execs focusing on secondary market value instead of producing enough watches for us who want to buy a watch to commemorate an event in our lives, Rolex is just a turn off brand.
People also were convinced to buy Tulips.Next thing I suppose will be Turnips 😂😂
Very interesting point, I’ve not heard of anyone really pin the blame of this on those investment banks hyping, could be a topic for a new video! i’ll dig out the articles
@@vinnyfrancis I look forward to it! How is your watch selling business doing during these post-Pandemic times? I hope you are surviving. Love to see updates on what watches offers great value in today's market like you used to produce. Assuming there is value.
@@user-nl4li1pj8l never confuse investments with spending!
It’s good thank you, we’ve shifted focus away from SS rolex and more towards interesting collector pieces, neo-vintage and micro brands as well as Omega are doing well for us, though unlike the other guys on here i don’t like to hype up my inventory as it’s just boring and predictable content “look at my gold daytona” - so? everyone’s seen one before by now😂
Recession, yes, bear economy, I don’t think so. Have you looked at the stock market recently? We’re at ATH’s across the world, even Japan, first ATH in 30 years. Interesting how the luxury goods market is not correlated with equities. Watch makers have brought this on themselves with their ridiculous price increases.
Ignoring the wider social impacts of recession for a second, within the watch market, for watch enthusiasts, this could be a good thing to help make watches more attainable.( both new and second hand) Compared to 2022, which was frustrating and insanity. It's funny to go into a goldsmith now. They actually want to sell to you, but still insist on silly games. I'd never buy from my local goldsmiths in Nottingham after they wouldn't even take my details for a watch I wanted for my 50th Birthday back in 2022. ( explorer 2, nothing fancy) I bought an Omega No time to die instead receiving wonderful service.
As usual , on the money.
Keep providing real content, so very different from the other UK dealers on UA-cam
lovely comment, thanks for your support!
Nice insight, the transparency is really appreciated! Helps build trust in your business too!
The bluesey is the antithesis of a recession 🤣
Blueseys are now stock watches at AD’s just like the black dial bi-metal subs. They can’t shift them at list price.
Rolex is building a new production facility which will start producing in 2026. It will take a year to find out how many more watches they can make. Right now the Rolex index is only 2% above the pre-pandemic level so it is safe to say that this is officially end of the bubble. This "buying watch an investment to hedge the economy "became big during this bubble. People should realize that even in a bear market, there are many investments that would beat the watch market. I buy what I enjoy. Great video again Vinny, and remember: You never walk alone. 🤣🤣🤣.
The pandemic made people question just how important a fancy trinket is 🙄
Fantastic insight. Much appreciated 👍👍
Glad you enjoyed it! thanks
Spot on Vinny. Nothing wrong with updating your market appraisal only a fool plays the same tune over and over.
We build upper middle market properties and just starting to see an upturn. Over 40 years I've found our particular part of the market is always the first to be hit but first to recover. However when i visited my Porsche dealer last week they tried to talk a good fight with the car park stacked with unsold brand new cars. Porsche's typical customer earning 100k has really been squeezed. I think there's a bit of pain left still.
No shortage of Rolexes in Asia. You can buy anything you want at any AD.
Could depend which industries are affected. I also think if BTC explodes to $100k after the halving as many expect it could save the luxury watch market.
Yeah, I think youre right. the days of selling ANY rolex for a profit is over. good. but the ones that are truly desirable will always be good buys - especially if theyre your favorite aesthetically.
As always, very interesting and informative video - as an aside, I understand that the UK definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction - this, however (so the BBC tells me), is 'absolute' GDP (i.e. the total economy, rather than per capita (per person equivalent)) - if the per capita GDP figures are used, there have been seven consecutive quarters of economic contraction (the overall GDP figures showing less contraction due to rising levels of immigration during the period and a consequent rising population). So, prices may drop further yet.
Yup very true, i’ve included that graphic in the video, per head has been falling since early 2022! shameful poor leadership
The swiss goblins did something, that alchemists dreamt of for hundreds of years. Turning iron into gold. A steel Sub costs more than its weight in gold. Insane. An industrialised, mass produced piece of junk.
Only because the bubble seemed to continuously expand, people kept egging each other on, how smart an investment these watches were.
Superb analyses and insights, Vinny. Thanks a lot!
My pleasure! thanks for watching my friend
more specific as you show this bluesy, got it few months ago, but look to upgrade to full gold below msrp ! maybe good idea to collect full gold watches for future ?
Great comprehensive episode.
Many thanks, Vinny
With appreciation
Nizar
Thanks Nizar, have a great day!
question to experts. buying full gold / plat models under msrp is it good time ? i guess in some years the trend from steel to full gold might change ?
Food for thought. I'm most nervous about World stockmarkets. It's a long time since their was a severe downturn. Looking at a World Index graph since the 2008 financial crisis the rise is becoming somewhat exponential. I've no idea what will happen next but history says a bear market can't be too far away. I'm still looking to buy several pieces but feel no pressure at all to do the deals. FOMO is gone from the market. Excellent video..
Thanks and yes the markets have still held quite strong lately, this is partly due to the optimistic outlook for interest rate cuts to come, i’m also intrigued by bitcoin at the moment and wonder wether that will continue to rally or possibly crash again
I don’t think this recession is a shock to the economy, it hasn’t come off the back of much in the way of meaningful growth. But it is indicative of the poor state of the economy long term, we’ve been bumping along the bottom and I think we will continue that pattern of stagnation punctuated with periodical recessions. It’s not just a UK problem as others have pointed out.
The growth in Europe has been predicated on access to cheap energy and those taps have been turned off for the foreseeable. The UK was in turn dependent on being financier for the continent. China is struggling to get going again so is not going to supercharge anything. Nobody seems to have any ideas how to change the picture.
I think that is the context the watch market is going to operate in for the next few years.
Vinny you make the points that everyone thinks but yet Corporate Media says something completely different.. I do have an understanding but I won't go into here as it is a large subject.
Vinny Do you think the watch market will slow down .Because all the hyped watch have now been brought buy people who wanted to make money on them .Now its just watch people who buy them to enjoyed them .
It already has by a great degree, we have very much diversified away from the hype SS Rolex Sports models and more towards collectors’ models, typically neo-vintage and other micro brands
Datejust green dial, Pepsi, Daytona ghost and pikachu are my favorite Rolexes. 🎉
oooh yes, for me the mint dial DJ in 36 is perfection
Yes we might now be in a recession but is that going to transpire into the popular rolex brands being more available?? that is the bottom line for some of us who are still interested in a new watch?
yes essentially, in fact i’d advise even now many pieces are indeed available if you play the right game at the AD and wait a couple of months
You know it's NOT good here in the ''officially at least in a recession UK'' for Omega certainly, when there is at least one jeweller & Omega AD, advertising huge big whopping reductions on the world wide web of the likes of £1500 or so for quite a few of Omega's hitherto most popular & most well known models & so reducing the prices from a most ridiculous £6,200 or £6,500 to a more true & more proper £4,500 or £4,200 price range & they're ALL still sitting there, these brand new watches, unsold & so 2024 for sure in the UK IS not going to see ANY serious ''upturn'' in the market.
Omega have dug their own grave with ridiculous successive price increases and not only that, the fact they price certain spacious editions at thousands more than the standard model is ludicrous. Seamaster 300 is £5600 and the James Bond without date window complication is thousands more! why?
Hi Vinny, I can report there is no shortage of Rolex here in Bangkok where I’m in holiday, I’m being offered them at least 4 or 5 times a day by the friendly spivs patrolling the streets😂 keep up the good work, ps you’ll have to widen your door soon to get your shoulders through it 😂
Hey mate, yeah to be honest as a 7 year old I got my first fake submariner from the markets in Italy, and I still have it in a drawer somewhere. Whilst fakes make me shriek now, I do believe they play an important role for inspiring many people to get into the real stuff…and lol yeah need a wide angle lens soon😉
Why you changed the name of your channel Vinny ? Planning to bail out of the watch business brother ? xx
what? my name has been vinny since 1997
@@vinnyfrancis You've answered a different question to the one I asked Bubbles xx
Nice shirt
Thanks!
You know what’s not in recession? Vinny’s shoulders. Dude’s stacked!
Great insights from someone who actually knows what he’s talking about.
Hahaha thanks man! have you seen the bullet nipples in this one though? that tee didnt flatter me haha
The eurozone is in a much deeper recession look at Germany 🇩🇪 also Japan 🇯🇵 also China 🇨🇳 is in a downturn. Maybe now most of the grey dealers will go back to their normal jobs and take the flippers with them 👌 leaving the people who actually buy these luxury goods because they like them not because they see them as a investment which they’ve never been.
Yes i believe Japan are not sure about Germany, the Germans have just overtaken Japan as 5th largest economy. Using the broad term investment is a generalisation as I do still believe select full set pieces, be it vintage discontinued or limited watches in great condition chosen carefully can be considered investments, I have made a video about this before.
Crypo pump last few months been keeping the greys shirts on …
i’m very intrigued to see if the bitcoin boom has an impact, though right now it’s too early for it to have had an impact, let’s see two or three months from then when profits have been made and such money gets spent
Going to be tough for at least another 16 months.
AD’S are carrying a lot of stock, They let you try watches on and then say can not buy it it’s already sold to keep the interest high. A record amount of watches are being turned down people sitting on there hand’s watching what they spend.
How do you know how many watches the AD has? What is your data to support this assertion? Specifically
Hi every time I go into the AD they always have a new watch in the back to try on and then manage to buy one three months later.
Worth just popping into the AD’S to enquire if you are serious to big
Watches are regularly being turned down at the minute people having second thoughts. Great time at the minute if you are a serious buyer.
I have to say from personal knowledge of clients of mine that they are turning down watches almost weekly, mainly gold Rolex are struggling to shift at ADs
@@vinnyfrancis I agree Vinny, Even certain Stainless Steel you can get the flippers are running for the hill.🤣
You know the market is down, even I got a call from an AD today for a stainless steal sports Rolex after a 6 month wait with no purchase history
What model was it ?
@@Madeinlondon67 yacht-master rhodium, beautiful watch but not worth the outlay right now
In getting calls every month now for Rolexes. Thankfully kept in the stock market and have 3x my in last two years without the high transaction costs of Rolex.
If this watch gig dont work out for you,gym instructor can always be your 2nd calling
Hahaha, I don’t think would pay quite as well but thanks for the compliment!
Well at least your biceps 💪🏻 are not in a recession 😂
Boom, cheers michael! that’s my other hobby 👍
Apart from the effects of recession, do you think the war in Ukraine and Gaza wont help stabilise the luxury watch market either ?
Very interesting point made, of course any escalations could disrupt international markets, which is possible, likewise deescalation would have a positive impact on global economies so as I said in the video it’s very difficult to incorporate these ‘unknowns’ into any forecasts, better to just play it as the Bank of England does, whom work off the most pessimistic outlook.
@@vinnyfrancis I think that’s realistic. Thanks Vinny for an excellent post. 🖐
no problem thanks!
Good vid....bi-metal are for fat middle aged men , who can't reach for an all gold, and don't understand steel sports watches.