TRQ Stock Analysis - Copper And Gold Mining Stock for the Long Term - Rio Tinto Owns it

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  • Опубліковано 12 жов 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 131

  • @Value-Investing
    @Value-Investing  5 років тому +9

    TRQ STOCK ANALYSIS
    0:00 Current situation
    3:17 Company Overview
    5:44 Oyu Tolgoi Technical report
    4 issues plaguing TRQ
    8:18 build own power plant
    9:13 Tax issue - $150 added
    9:33 Ore body stability
    9:50 New agreement with government
    11:13 Financials
    11:50 Valuation model
    14:27 Long term copper/gold play
    15:38 Investing in copper

  • @alexandrealferan7144
    @alexandrealferan7144 3 роки тому +2

    I am so happy to have found your channel you really beat alot of North American youtuber self proclaimed analysis.... You are clearly educated with this will be sharing your channel NON - STOP

  • @paulthethi1341
    @paulthethi1341 5 років тому +2

    Thank you for this video Sven. A big help. I am watching TRQ for my 20-year growth pot.

  • @hugosalinasaliaga5266
    @hugosalinasaliaga5266 5 років тому +3

    I worked for Rio Tinto for 5 years in the US. I could not complain, great company, but you definitely have to understand the cycle.

    • @Amara.Bayarm
      @Amara.Bayarm 3 роки тому

      Can you clarify about the circle ? Just curious.

  • @monterow461
    @monterow461 5 років тому +23

    first sustainable production is now expected between May 2022 and June 2023 - a delay of 16 to 30 months compared with original guidance . Can we get an updated video regarding today’s news?

    • @ghostofgarycoleman5251
      @ghostofgarycoleman5251 4 роки тому +6

      The founder's father survived 3 years in Auschw1tz, that's why I'm investing

    • @maxlewin7807
      @maxlewin7807 4 роки тому

      @@ghostofgarycoleman5251 wow!

  • @jonathanbosco8458
    @jonathanbosco8458 5 років тому +1

    Wild boars and copper prices have one common denominator they show up and explode out of the nowhere. Great video

  • @jackthompson6249
    @jackthompson6249 5 років тому +1

    Sven, thank you for following up!

  • @richardb7726
    @richardb7726 5 років тому +1

    Thank Sven, great vid, as always
    A family acquaintance worked on a 2 billion dollar road project in Mongolia, building road access to a mine. They won’t get out of bed for less than 200k a year and I know it was a lot more for Mongolia. In 2018, Mongolia had to go cap in hand to the IMF for 16 billion dollars more money.
    My point, people are both making and taking lots of money out of Mongolia. Its a cash cow. When Mongolia are having to pay, for example, 200k for just one ‘expert’, on a six month working year, don’t expect to make a profit soon. Plus, don’t be surprised when one day the locals say ‘hey, what about our cut of the cash?’.

  • @whoachris3875
    @whoachris3875 4 роки тому +3

    A lot has happened recently with an updated technical report and GoM to finance the power plant. Sven, can you revisit your analysis on TRQ?

  • @creatinet
    @creatinet 5 років тому

    Watched a lot of your videos and your doing a fantastic job! Everytime I search for a specific stock your vids come up :D Keep the good work up!

  • @davidelet3652
    @davidelet3652 4 роки тому

    It is funny that 3 years ago the max gold price for creating possible outcomes of NPV for a copper/gold mine was 1650 while it is now 1810+. And a lot of these gold miners only started production on new projects the last few years using gold at 1150-1250. Huge future cashflows. These will become the cashcows companies of the future. Thanks for your inspiring content Sven.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  4 роки тому

      but be careful to pick the right miners, it is a tricky business.

  • @Dawkins007
    @Dawkins007 5 років тому +4

    1.2 - 1.9b CAPEX overrun just announced, with estimated date of sustainable underground mine production pushed back to May 2022 - June 2023 range. Shares are currently down 32% in premarket, trading at 0.73 USD

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому +3

      ai, ai ai:-( that was the unknow that now materialized. will look into it.

  • @jonnes__4657
    @jonnes__4657 5 років тому +1

    Sven I know Mongolia. I was there several times.... working and meetings. The steppe, the people, the culture is very interesting, but in winter-time it is really cold! And you have to drink a lot of Vodka.
    And the russian coal power plants were in terrible condition. It was like hell in the boiler house!
    .

  • @DiggingNorway
    @DiggingNorway 5 років тому +1

    Thanks! I have invested om Steppe Gold and found your comments on jurisdiction interesting. Steppe Gold is also down alot since IPO, I bought in at 0.76

    • @shagaigan326
      @shagaigan326 4 роки тому

      You made a good profit recently if you still kept the shares

  • @midge177
    @midge177 5 років тому +4

    Took a 2,5% of portfolio position two weeke ago. Bit of a long term hedge and I like the gambling side of it.

    • @ko1129
      @ko1129 5 років тому +5

      There may be a small premium in TRQ shares but many other copper miners are trading at higher premium.
      The prices of TRQ are at what I considered distressed levels due to institutional selling and barrage of negative news. Longer term the financials will experience YoY growth for nearly a decade. Sovereign risk is always an issue with miners and Mongolia is untested waters. A bet on TRQ is a bet on Copper and lesser extent gold but also a big bet in Mongolia’s rise which needs to
      pivot to being mining friendly.

  • @Xananta888
    @Xananta888 4 роки тому

    Good call back in May, Sven. TRQ is now trading another 50% down since then. Today it has a market cap of only 1.2 billion USD. Enough of a margin of safety to buy it now?

  • @marcelinoperez2926
    @marcelinoperez2926 5 років тому +1

    Excellent your presentation and analyses thanksssss

  • @davorsostaric
    @davorsostaric 3 роки тому +1

    can you give us a quick update on this company relative to todays conditions?

  • @stevenrose86
    @stevenrose86 5 років тому +3

    Hi Sven. Could you do a video on how you build your valuation models? Is it using earnings or free cash flow? I’m still fairly new and I’m having trouble calculating intrinsic value of companies

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому +5

      depends on what company etc... will do in the future

  • @purnoruz
    @purnoruz 5 років тому +1

    Now market cap is 1.2 M. Less risk but the reward delayed for 3 years. A lot can happen but the copper and gold (asset) will be always there.

  • @ko1129
    @ko1129 3 роки тому +1

    Looks like we are going to the final innings in TRQ with an epic showdown with Rio , TRQ and Mongolia Government before the commencement of the undercut and underground mining production.

  • @ericgamliel8500
    @ericgamliel8500 4 роки тому +3

    8:53 The power plant, according to the latest quarterly report is estimated to be $924 million. It's really sad what happened to this company. It was such a promise.

  • @BohdieLotion
    @BohdieLotion 5 років тому

    Oh man this final Mining list... This was so frustrating. I really wondered If you looked into Teck Resources and the list stops at "S"... haha

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      it goes further, teck is below what I could put on the screenshot:-)

  • @castroganlecar4854
    @castroganlecar4854 4 роки тому

    Dear Sven, on past week I was next to buy It due with your profund and excellent analasys.
    Unluckily I paid too much attention about decision of dilution share, class action proposal and protest in Mongolia so I have not bought...
    I was too much carefull... On 26 of October at market open the share price recorded the unbellieveble fast growth of 1000%.
    I feel so angry.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  4 роки тому +1

      that is because of the stock split, nothing happened there :-__

    • @castroganlecar4854
      @castroganlecar4854 4 роки тому

      @@Value-Investing you are right!
      I was so comfused because on 26 october Google and Yahoo finance reported such price that shocked me.
      I have to Say that another shares + Karoura resources - in past Summer recorded a growth of +800% in 45 days ...

  • @7lllll
    @7lllll 5 років тому +7

    it is now extremely cheap, time to take another look, i think

  • @123rooky
    @123rooky 5 років тому

    Great Video Sven! How cautious we have to be in trusting the numbers Asian companies show?

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      this is Rio Tinto, not an Asian company. As for Asian companies, look at the cash flows:-) Dividends don't lie:-)

  • @a_anonymous_m
    @a_anonymous_m 5 років тому

    Love the details!
    Just a thought, I've been looking into shorting/buying puts for American roofing supply companies due to the unseasonably heavy rain and flooding that's been happening in the Midwest states (roofing shuts down completely when it rains). I've been looking at (CSL) in particular. Analysts are expecting very high EPS from the company next quarter, but those estimates seem far too bullish and were made before the flooding. Just two quarters ago they missed estimates due to unreasonably heavy rain and dropped about 10%.
    I know you focus on value, but
    I would still like to hear your thoughts on this if it interests you.
    Thank you.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      hm, don't know much but I would say what you do is risky:-) You never know how will a stock react over earnings, how they book those etc....

  • @michaelkofman3881
    @michaelkofman3881 5 років тому

    Hi Sven,
    Thanks for this report. Turquoise Hill's market cap is around $900 million, or about 50% of your NPV calculation. What do you think about buying shares at this valuation?

  • @scottkennedy8109
    @scottkennedy8109 4 роки тому +1

    Man that price jump from .64 to .70

  • @Christopherbarett
    @Christopherbarett 5 років тому

    Excellent video, thanks. What do you think of the stock now gold is up and the stock price is down. Copper of course is still stuck in the mud. Curious if it’s cheap enough to have some value.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      value went to negative in the current environment - copper is the factor- but if copper prices go up, this will win big.

  • @montess18
    @montess18 5 років тому +6

    Shares of trq fell over 45% today after the company reported production results from the second quarter of this year.

    • @ericgamliel8500
      @ericgamliel8500 4 роки тому

      This was due to a one time impairment related to the cost and schedule blow outs on an underground expansion of Oyu Tolgoi. As Sven said in this video, the management basically fucked up and underestimated the underground costs. As a result they impaired the balance sheet. Management sucks.

    • @lorenzmuller3542
      @lorenzmuller3542 4 роки тому

      @@ericgamliel8500 So what would be your copper play then?

    • @ericgamliel8500
      @ericgamliel8500 4 роки тому

      @@lorenzmuller3542 I've owned Lundin for years. I wouldn't buy more today--maybe on a big pull back. Certainly wouldn't buy TRQ, they're not in it for the shareholders.

    • @ericgamliel8500
      @ericgamliel8500 4 роки тому

      @@lorenzmuller3542 I should say, I own RIO--and they WILL own TRQ 100% in the future. It's a big game they're playing.

    • @lorenzmuller3542
      @lorenzmuller3542 4 роки тому

      @@ericgamliel8500 Maybe Freeport McMoran might be an option? Why do you think that of TRQ management? They own a lot of stock. Would have said that the incentives are quite good for sharholders.

  • @AG-en5y
    @AG-en5y 3 роки тому

    Hello sir, please do updateeeee today it fell ANOTHER -20%
    Much love from Vancouver

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  3 роки тому

      you have an update on my research platform!

    • @AG-en5y
      @AG-en5y 3 роки тому

      @@Value-Investing for sure after my next summer job

  • @jdr4674
    @jdr4674 3 роки тому +1

    TRQ tripled in price since. Fuck me sideways, I was so close to buying.

  • @K6G8M9P0
    @K6G8M9P0 5 років тому

    Great video!!! Thank you for sharing! Perfect timing as well. Tomorrow I was planning to check on the company and purchase more shares but you just did the update work for me :D Was thinking the exact same thing on the power provider.. As long as the Mongols don't do funny business with the electricity price it should be a good investment rather than an issue. Short term issues doesn't bother me at all I'm in for the speculative play. I love to speculate on events that will not happen as opposed to events that will. In theory if the Mongol friends stay quiet and do nothing TRQ should increase in value because the Mongol intervention is priced in, same with the power supply - it's priced in so negatively.. The company is quite volatile as well. Worst case scenario I hold this bag for 20 years :D :D but with that speculative potential to 10-20$ a share in some crazy market copper rush I can't just pass by. I literally need 2 good news + copper price up 5% in an year to at least 3ple my money on that beaten to death company. I think that makes TRQ the easiest company to "just" buy low sell high :D :D

  • @level11gaming17
    @level11gaming17 3 роки тому

    This video aged really well... Holy shit, it would have been a 13 bagger + dividends

    • @zhaooooOOOO
      @zhaooooOOOO 3 роки тому

      13 bagger? Wasnt that just the split?

  • @maxlewin7807
    @maxlewin7807 4 роки тому +1

    Trq update, I'm thinking of buying and found your video

    • @maxlewin7807
      @maxlewin7807 4 роки тому

      "Speculate bet, put money in and forget about it for 10 to 20 years", good overall analysis.

    • @Poker-is8dt
      @Poker-is8dt 4 роки тому +1

      I bought 5k shares at $1 Average. Buying another 2k tomorrow. Copper futures are breaking out of multi decade wedge. LOAD UP. I have a total of 180k USD in the gold,silver and copper mining sector. Cheers from NZ

  • @r.7442
    @r.7442 5 років тому

    Bought a decent amount of shares after it dropped to 1.80 USD before the delay really was visible. My thesis was that GOM doesn't pose a huge threat because its Economy is super dependent on mining Investments, Tavan Tolgoi IPO in the short term. Wasn't wrong there but still lost overall. I'm still very young, so It's a good learning experience

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      you lost if you sold:-) However, hard to predict what will happen.

  • @glennartist7633
    @glennartist7633 5 років тому

    sven , i found many companies in asia that are so undervalued that im sceptical if its real or not , some selling with a market cap of $100 m and equity of $500 m “share price bellow ipo”

    • @tedpaul8391
      @tedpaul8391 5 років тому

      Give an example.
      Generally, a company is undervalued for a reason, although I bet at least one is actually a great buy. Got to research them all carefully :)

  • @mrmojo6871
    @mrmojo6871 5 років тому

    Thank you Sven

  • @one_armed_bandit__5861
    @one_armed_bandit__5861 5 років тому +1

    Bought 1016 shares at about .47 cents average. I'll sit on it for a while

    • @tobivaudrey1893
      @tobivaudrey1893 5 років тому

      Price dropped as costs rose by 1.9 B. This brings this reduces the projections to only 920M. Current market cap is 875M, so it is slightly undervalued at the moment, but not by much.

  • @jelaneytaters8149
    @jelaneytaters8149 4 роки тому

    Please do analysis on Fiat Chrysler and Huami Corp

  • @sooiwuyts7618
    @sooiwuyts7618 5 років тому +2

    i will buy it...

  • @geckomaniac3801
    @geckomaniac3801 5 років тому

    Hi Sven, I looked into this company a little more and right now it seems like the stock will only go up if a positive catalyst shows.
    It seems very unlikely that Mongolia or Rio Tinto will abandon this gigantic project after putting so much money in it.
    I'm still a younger investor though and thought I'd ask someone with more experience for their opinion.
    At the moment I see this stock as a risky stock that could have huge upside potential.
    Did you look into or plan to look into this stock while it is at this price level?
    Looking at your video, right now it would be highly undervalued even considering all the debt. So the question would just be how likely it is that the project is abandoned, because if it's not abandoned this is going to be a huge winner.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому +1

      I've looked at it but still have to see a bit better, so don't know yet :-(

  • @zoemayne
    @zoemayne 5 років тому +1

    Hard to calculate corruption in the formula if there is any. The numbers would make more sense if there is blatant government corruption involved. I have a question that maybe you can make a whole video on. How often does a large company with a billion dollar market cap file for bankruptcy and not pay stock investors? Like GM - I would never buy their stock since they were allowed to just price their shares out to 0 and just get back on the market.

    • @ThePhukst1k
      @ThePhukst1k 5 років тому +3

      zoemayne I’m actually convinced the corruption leans more toward Rio and a lack of integrity. Shell companies and tax evasion.
      Failure to disclose this information last year.
      TRQ CEO is almost no where to be found, Rio now controls the board.
      The Mongolian government is trying to renig on the poor deal they signed yes, but it appears they were also taken advantage of.
      Personally, I wonder if Tranquil Hill was created to sustain the capex as well as the shotgun blasts of PR. To raise capital raise without diluting rio shareholders.
      I’m not an analyst or warren buffet, these are things I’ve picked up a long the way from various sources.

  • @SergiMedina
    @SergiMedina 3 роки тому

    It's somewhat risky, but I've been buying some lately as I think it's severely undervalued despite all the headwinds.

  • @ko1129
    @ko1129 3 роки тому +1

    Story is now an event play if Rio Tinto can ram a rights offering by obstructing financing currently in Canadian arbitration. Resolution sometime first 1/2 of the year.

  • @Dawkins007
    @Dawkins007 5 років тому +1

    At 12:18 why is the cash flow so small after the first 20 years? I thought this was supposed to be a 100 year mine?

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому +1

      I think it is just the first stage of investment shown, then other stages come in, not included in the cash flowsy

    • @Dawkins007
      @Dawkins007 5 років тому

      ​@@Value-Investing Thanks, that's interesting. Doesn't that make the valuation potentially much higher (assuming all goes well with the future stages?). The stock is still dropping. Is this most likely just sentiment and risk aversion, or is there a chance that people have inside information?

    • @Dawkins007
      @Dawkins007 5 років тому +1

      @@Value-Investing Have you heard this comment about TRQ from Nolan Watson, CEO of Sandstorm Gold? ua-cam.com/video/zoENPZXmSoU/v-deo.html

  • @ricardoluz5496
    @ricardoluz5496 5 років тому +1

    Hey Sven. Something hit me last few days. I have little money to invest, lets say i can put 5000€ now on a broker, and add 300€ every month. I have been thinking about dividend stocks... Should i go for dividend stocks, and reinvest dividends?
    (Maybe is a good topic for a video)

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому +6

      you should go for good businesses, whether they pay out their earnings in dividends or reinvest doesn't matter, as long as those are good businesses at a fair price

    • @hodoprime
      @hodoprime 5 років тому +1

      Ricardo Luz Majority of “dividend” stocks are leveraged with debt already so there is risk that interest costs will increase. Some are already feeling the pain now and others will later when bonds mature. Be careful.

    • @ricardoluz5496
      @ricardoluz5496 5 років тому

      @@Value-Investing thanks

    • @ricardoluz5496
      @ricardoluz5496 5 років тому

      @@hodoprime thanks

  • @round12tko
    @round12tko 5 років тому +1

    Did David Einhorn make a billion dollars shorting Tesla?

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      If he wasn't forced to close the position earlier, yes:-)

  • @tonymoore7805
    @tonymoore7805 5 років тому +2

    Too many unknowns with the Mongolian government = more money for them. If this mine was in America.....

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому +1

      if, if, if :-) that is how investing usually is

  • @montess18
    @montess18 5 років тому

    Dr. Copper Says Recession, But Here Are Some Companies Still Worth Following,
    COPX is down -11.80%
    IVPAF is up 56.12%
    FCX is down -12.51%
    FQVLF is down -21.83%.
    TRQ is down -71.65%

  • @ko1129
    @ko1129 5 років тому

    Price reached a new low , is there still a premium in the stock?

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      that depends on what your requirements are:-) The discount rate depends on the investor:-)

  • @Amara.Bayarm
    @Amara.Bayarm 3 роки тому

    Can you give us an update on current value? Thank you 😊

  • @HaiTran-fi1uc
    @HaiTran-fi1uc 5 років тому

    What happened to the almost 50 percent drop today?

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      need an additional billion or two to build the mine, plus delay

  • @einsteen3642
    @einsteen3642 5 років тому

    Hello Sven,
    I am a young person from Belgium. I started investing a year ago, I have got a question regarding brokerages. I am using now a broker to buy stocks but I thinks the price is a lot just to buy stocks. What are your thoughts on low cost brokerages like they have in America (Robinhood). In future all this costs can make a huge difference.
    Thanks in advancz

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      I am using the European low cost brokers, for now they seem good to me.

    • @geckomaniac3801
      @geckomaniac3801 5 років тому +1

      I live in Germany and use Degiro. The transactions are pretty cheap and I like the design so I can only recommend it. That said I haven't been using it for long so it could change.

    • @r.7442
      @r.7442 5 років тому

      Try Degiro or Interactive Brokers, Order Costs are around 1$ for us stocks there are also Fintechs like Trading 212 who offer zero commission stock-buying but you'll have to consider potentially higher spreads which might offset what you save. Interactive Brokers, for example, lets you trade pretty much everything there is, currently my preferred Broker. Just try some out.

    • @jonnes__4657
      @jonnes__4657 5 років тому

      If you trade around it makes a huge difference, if you invest long-term it is not that important. If you pay 0.5% in commission you will have 0.5% less wealth in the future.
      .

    • @going1bzrk
      @going1bzrk 5 років тому

      I'm also from Belgium and I switched to degiro because the cost is a lot lower then the ones available in Belgium.

  • @lftornado
    @lftornado 5 років тому

    Hi Sven, I'm trying to replicate the DCF calculation you did here for TRQ. Year 9 / 2027 appears to be an unusual year in Table 22.11 in the OreWin slide. The net cash flow for this year in the table in $16.1 billion. You use $2.1 billion. I assume you somehow excluded some on-off numbers for this particular year. What did you exclude and why? I don't disagree with your numbers, I'm asking as I want to learn...

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      I took averages, not the actual projections, those are always wrong:-) Plus, in the table the cash flows are for 10 years cumulative, not one year.

    • @lftornado
      @lftornado 5 років тому

      Makes sense. Thanks! :)

  • @evni6208
    @evni6208 5 років тому

    Great work as always Sven You only forgot to say Wait For It...The Mongols! ua-cam.com/video/szxPar0BcMo/v-deo.html To honor John Green of Crashcourse

  • @sika6886
    @sika6886 5 років тому

    I could buy more with dollar cost averaging, before EV era really comes.

  • @demolaj1
    @demolaj1 4 роки тому +1

    IVAN a better play bigger mines better mines

  • @lucaspeters8327
    @lucaspeters8327 5 років тому

    Trq sharply down today. Buy?

  • @siggiAg86
    @siggiAg86 5 років тому

    👌👌👏

  • @kreteman7779
    @kreteman7779 5 років тому

    Not what I wanted to here Sven. I have a rather large position at 1.5 cost basis. Not happy.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      wait, you buy TRQ and then you are not happy because it goes down after a while? TRQ is a 100 year investments, what do you care about 50% up or down

    • @kreteman7779
      @kreteman7779 5 років тому

      @@Value-Investing You are supposed to say it will go to the moon by the end of the year. 😘

    • @BeefZupreme
      @BeefZupreme 5 років тому

      Lolol imagine all the people whom bought at 2+

  • @BeefZupreme
    @BeefZupreme 5 років тому

    I got 300 shares sitting at 1.63 is this a good position!?!

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  5 років тому

      no idea:-) Really no idea what will happen there. See how the possible outcomes fit your strategy.

  • @ericgamliel8500
    @ericgamliel8500 4 роки тому

    Today TRQ's market cap is $788M. It must be a bargain according to the analysis of this video. What do you think? Anyone concerned about the recession we're going to have, or the inflation we're going to have?

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  4 роки тому +1

      this analysis was made long-time ago!

    • @ericgamliel8500
      @ericgamliel8500 4 роки тому

      @@Value-Investing I see what's going on w/ them, the debt, the power plant, the Mongols. I'm still NOT a buyer. Some one else will have to bail them out. . . maybe RIO will.