I decided as of Aug 2020 I would be 98% in gold and 2% in uranium stock. I want to buy more energy stock as the U.S. shale boom won't last beyond the next decade where oil and gas well will be depleted. But I'm stuck on what to buy. Barrick Gold is certainly a stock I'm going to be picking up. Thanks Sven for all the hard work that goes into making these videos.
Since this video, Barrick gold bought Randgold. The sale hasn’t officially gone through but this news did send Berrick stock price up. It is now up about 25% on the month. I’m hoping the dividend will increase. Right now it’s 1.05% which is better than 0 from most miners.
I also noticed that, and also that Mark Bristow, CEO of Randgold, is going to lead Barrick. That looks really positive because he is well regarded and Randgold did very well under his leadership.
Barbara Gladfelter how about now that barrick is trying to take over newmont. That’s a rivalry right. Will that help or hurt silver gold? And help or hurt the industry??
I love UA-cam, its filled with a wealth of information shared freely by some amazing people. I live in a country filled with organisations bud where you can't talk openly or share info. Thankfully i handed in my Chav membership when i was just 14 years old. Thanks for sharing bud, I started trading CFD's about six years ago with a Swiss broker and had around 2,500 instruments. I played around in the Forex market in the time period when it really was fast & furious. Such a learning curve to go around. I've been told stock trading is much easier, and i hope it is cause today i'm with a new broker who's opened over 30,000 + instruments which include CFD's, ETF's etc This is a major step up the ladder towards becoming a professional trader. Due to the panic that's currently setting into the market place, one feels that Gold stock is a must look at today. {You Chav's getting all the good info ; }
Sven, P/E ratios are a poor way to evaluate value in a gold miner. You are buying the present value of the margin of the reserves in the ground plus current production. Above that, you are paying for the companies ability to find additional assets. A short cut is looking at BV and putting a multiple on it.
It would be interesting with an update on these, how did they perform since the video was made and also a comparison with how did VanEck Gold Miners ETF or iShares Gold Producers ETF do in the same period. So a look at what is the risk/benefit in picking individual stocks over an ETF if you believe a specific sector like gold is going to perform well in the future.
Hi Sven! BIG question, is a gold stock/company only worthwhile if the financials look decent? after watching both your videos on gold, I noticed that many gold companies have terrible valuations/financials. Their earnings are terrible etc..
Sven, first off, I want to say great job with this channel. Yours is the only investment channel I've been inspired to subscribe to and I learn something with every video. I'm very interested in uranium, and you mentioned an upcoming video on this in one of the previous videos. If you could break down the potential of the uranium market and evaluate the URA ETF in the way you did in this video, that would be really helpful. Thanks, and keep up the good work.
hey sven, the video is about a year old now. do you plan on publishing an update? my personal favourite in this video was newcrest as they have a long reserve life span, a decent cash flow yield and growth potential. "mining costs were below 800, so it's a good margin of safety", you said. which one was yours? do you also prefer newcrest over others?
Sven, thanks for previous reply! From 2 years ago your sentiment was buy the best ( least debt ); best risk profile. Unless I am wrong did you infer leave the ETF buy the individual Miner? Please advise. Also has your position changed post Covid 2 years later. I get investing in mining is a hedge. Are you bearish or bullish on these stocks going into May 2020 ,thanks Dan ( INTERESTING TOPIC !!! )
Hi Sven, what is your view of the Vanguard Precious Metals mutual fund (VGPMX) that invests in gold mining companies? How do you compare the risk of investing in say Harmony Gold and Edorado Gold? VGPMX's top 10 holdings are: 1 Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. 2 B2Gold Corp. 3 Newmont Mining Corp. 4 Barrick Gold Corp. 5 Franco-Nevada Corp. 6 Randgold Resources Ltd. 7 Rio Tinto 8 Kinross Gold Corp. 9 Nevsun Resources Ltd. 10 Endeavour Mining Corp. Ten largest holdings = 39.8% of total net assets p.s. I have the feeling I am asking a dumb question... ;)
it is not a dumb question. the risk of investing is much bigger with individual names as you can end up with zero. When using a fund you get a bit of everything which makes it more related to the price of gold and much less risky
Sven, Can you please simply list tickers that are key points of the video at the end of the description? Like, in this case, it would just be: GDX, NEM, ABX, GG etc...
Hi Sven, quick question about Barrick; you say it’s got a lot of debt, but is quite stable as it’s most of it is not maturing until 2032. How would this be affected by rising interest rates? Are loans like this, by companies, always variable, or can they be fixed (like your mortgage!) I like barrack but the high debt concerns me. Thanks
I don't know how much of their debt is fixed or variable. However, there is a decline in production that is worrying the street which might be costly to replace and then you would see the debt go up.
Hey Sven are you still buying miners. What about GDX ETFs? I just don’t have time to track them. They’re mainly barrick new int and newcrest in those ETFs right. Do you think GDX is ok?
Sven: Assuming an upward price projection for Gold price in 2018 To get multiple returns from stock, few questions need an answer. Gold mining projects should be in pipeline to get completed in coming 6 to 18 months. If outstanding shares are low or low equity base of companies shall give higher returns in comparison to others because high growth in EPS in case of projects getting completed in say 12 months. Investors need to look such stocks with EPS growth which should explode many times though same companies can have size of production. Bigger the project size with lower equity base shall outperform other gold mining companies. junior should be avoided
Sven what's the deal with gold cascading down going into this late cycle? I see silver topping gold over the last few months, which we rarely see in history. Is gold losing its allure as the precious metal of choice? I know rising interest rates and rising dollar are head-winds to gold, but going into a market-top, we usually see gold and commodities ride up in late cycles. Is gold just too early in this late-cycle, or will these interest rates/rising dollar continue to keep gold from breaking out? Also, how much would you say bitcoin has eaten into gold as its constantly being marketed as digital gold. Millennials i talk to hate the idea of buying gold, but they seem more open to cryptos. Have you found that in your research as well?
bitcoin too small to influence anything. as for the short term gold, what you said has an impact and as I always say, gold is a long term hedge, nothing else.
Hello, Perhaps you can analyze in detail the gold mining company Pretium Resources Inc. If I remember correctly, he commented in previous videos that Buffet bought shares in this company. Thank you!
thanks for the video. Any chance you could also cover any convertible's out on these or other good junior stocks (gold/silver). If it's a volatile trade to begin with why not try to maximize the upside over time ?
If one was going to buy either of these through a fidelity account, what would the tickers be? I want to research these companies but most times people give the ticker and no name or the name and no ticker (and with just the ticker it can be confusing. Michael for example is it NST.AX or AU?
You've become one of my fav UA-camrs over the past several months and I appreciate your channel's curated content and its non-biased perspective. Have you considered starting a Patreon or accepting BTC / LTC / PayPal tips by linking some addresses in your video descriptions? Just wondering if there was a way for us to show appreciation besides ad clicking + subscription
I have a book coming out and I will set up a monthly written newsletter, videos are entertaining but can't really transmit all the value of my research :-) So, I will be happy to have you as a customer.
Not a whole lot of talk lately here or in the oil tanker space (on your videos). Both I'm interested in now. Sven, have you been active in these spaces in the last couple months?
@@Value-Investing makes sense, they may be more of a special situation rather than normalized fcf to ev over a cycle. Kinda surprised to not hear more on gold miners though. Maybe I'm pretty late to the party but I don't think the party will be short lived.
Hi. This is 4 months ago video. Can you give suggestion on Sibanye gold and Harmony gold stocks? I have been stacking them since last month. Both of them around - 10% drop now. I am deciding to add in more later on before or after the fed announcement. Double up my investment then it will make this 2 stocks become around 30% of my holdings. I always like to bet on just few stocks i think is fresh rather than buying too many rotten eggs.
30% in those is a lot and I see you have a short term orientation - gold miners for me are just a long long term hedge so I just rebalance around big moves and not that much on the small ones.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. thanks for replying and your recommendation. Appreciates it. Im 50/50 sure only. But i do see sibanye gold undervalued so as harmony gold. Currently my holdings just 15%. But i might have to leverage it to balance my loses. It will become 30%. Im looking to take profit by the end of the year with double capital growth on most gold miners investment. Hopefully. But its just purely speculation. Another reason why im putting so much on gold is because im not sure what stocks to buy in for now. Most of the stocks is overvalued and i already sold alot after profit taking since last month. I speculate most stocks is already in danger zone now. Im happy to buy in again if theres a market correction after fed eate announce. Stocks in my watchlist. Alibaba, tencent, china mobile, kraft heinz, Google, Ibm, royal dutch shell etc. Most of the above stocks i already took profit selling them since last end of the month.
Thank you for another educational and well-made video, Sven. You present alot of stats, facts and opinions, but it easy to follow when you are so prepared and to-the-point. I have invested a part of my portfolio in Platinum Group Metals ltd (PLG). Would like to get your opinion. I think it has a very high risk/reward asymmetry, if you will ever look at the white gold! best regards Sven, M.Sc (norway)
Hi Sven, what a great name you have! I have discussed palladium as for platinum I am a bit concerned about the risk of a quick shift to electric if they bring down the cost of those batteries. ua-cam.com/video/T11SsVI4Dxk/v-deo.html
i would say the chances of gold to go below 900 are near zero, at least for long run, if eventually the price go there, everybody and his sister would jump on gold.
Hi Jorge: My experience is that if something goes waaaaaay down in price, no one will want it. Look at housing. After 2008, it was in a HUGE slump. It was cheap & no one wanted it. Now that the prices are high - everyone wants in. (P.S. I'm selling my house this year)
Hm, you never know what can happen, the key is to be prepared for anything. But from a probability perspective let's say 20% with a short term stay below $1,000 or $900 where the probability for long term lower gold prices would be 5%.
MegaBuyer you have a point there, but my suspition is that there is deep pockets in this world who understand the value of gold that would take advantage of that drop. just like it happen in 2008, but you are right about retails consumers. they always came late to the party.lol
I really like your analysis, but after watching it i ask myself: Why should the gold price rise, when all the big producers will increase production in the next years?
Not Barrick and Newmont and others hope to increase, there it a long way to that. however, gold prices depend more on sentiment, therefore it is a hedge, not a supply demand investment.
Very interesting.thanks sven I think exposure to them all by buying gdx & gdxj is a good play as its quite diversified by its nature.why punt on a few when you can punt on them all
Gold miners are very cheap right now historically. It’s been a very bad 7 years for them. Personally, I think they have nowhere to go but up at this point as long as they don’t go broke first which is why it the bigger miners. I’m happy to receive annual dividends in the event I need to hold for manny years to see gains worthy of cashing out.
depends on one's portfolio preferences. With miners I can have a similar hedge effect with less portfolio exposure and more volatility to take advantage of.
The reason I stoped buying gold and silver ETFs and started buying miners is the the biggest miners pay dividends and they increase dramatically when the metal prices rise modestly. I like ABX. Has very high growth potential and a 1% annual dividend. It has risen 25% in the last month and even after that, the price is still very low. I see 400% up side if gold goes into a bull market as it did 8 years ago.
Hi Myles. I figured it would be the dividends. Did you own the miners during the last recession? Just wondering how they did, compared to the bullion. I would imagine you have to trade this at the right time since the 5 year return is minus 5%+
Lynn Fishman RN I did not own the miners during the last recession but they had a peak stock price of about 200-500% higher than what they are selling for right now and then they crashed along with the metals which tells me they are not the type of stock you hold forever. I’m just planning to hold until the next run up when they are up and stocks are down. Holding silver, gold or minding stocks for the last 7 years wasn’t good for anybody who did so but all 3 are now at historically low prices, opposite of the high prices for the rest of the stock market. I felt like tech stocks are a waste of money at recent prices and now the rest of the market seems to agree as they are crashing while mining stocks are going up.
I hold upcoming Aurania Resources. They start drilling November. -Large property (2080 km2) 100%-owned, unexplored and along the same major geological trend that hosts the bulk of gold and silver deposits that constitute the Jurassic Metallogenic Belt in southeastern Ecuador.
I don’t do business in Africa lately. Instability. My experience with operations there have taught me that Africa is Africa. She has her own sets of rules.
Thank you for this informative update. I'm cautious about miners short term though. Gold&silver started intermediate decline, which could continue during next 5-6 weeks. Therefore the miners, which lagged the recent gold price increase, could decline as well.
You are talking so often about gold but I don't see this 20x increase of goldminers when gold doubles in any stock history. Gold has been very expensive the past few years and gold miners have produced terrible results.
there are some newer videos discussing how most gold miners are overpriced. I made 50% on one in 2019 and recently sold, and that is most of my story with gold for now.
Thx to your analysis to the Gold-Miners. All these miners are a good hedge, but they are IMO very bad long-term investments. Adam Hamilton is also analysing a bit these companies: www.zealllc.com/2018/gmq218fn.htm .
The share price will explode when gold will kiss 1500$. 9 M once in the ground, with low grade. Sounds crazy but when smart money will flow in the precious metal space, this is gonna be Huge. No matter if the project is expensive to be built, the price will reflect the value of the project and now is the most undervalued asset to buy.
Hi Jack. Take a quick look at Aurania Resources that will make first dig hole any day now. Enormous potential and thats why we are here. Aurania.com Listed in Canada, Frankfurt and US. Junior miners but senior management.
A 4-year-old video, but still with so much educational value! Thanks, as always, Sven!
This video is more relevant now in July 2020 than ever. Thanks!
Yea, especially after Warren Buffet's stake in Barrick Gold. This guy was way ahead of time
I decided as of Aug 2020 I would be 98% in gold and 2% in uranium stock. I want to buy more energy stock as the U.S. shale boom won't last beyond the next decade where oil and gas well will be depleted. But I'm stuck on what to buy.
Barrick Gold is certainly a stock I'm going to be picking up.
Thanks Sven for all the hard work that goes into making these videos.
These are great videos sir. Thank you.
Can't start to imagine how many hours a day you invest in research but thx for the video. Very informative.
Haha, thanks!
Since this video, Barrick gold bought Randgold. The sale hasn’t officially gone through but this news did send Berrick stock price up. It is now up about 25% on the month. I’m hoping the dividend will increase. Right now it’s 1.05% which is better than 0 from most miners.
I also noticed that, and also that Mark Bristow, CEO of Randgold, is going to lead Barrick. That looks really positive because he is well regarded and Randgold did very well under his leadership.
Barbara Gladfelter how about now that barrick is trying to take over newmont. That’s a rivalry right. Will that help or hurt silver gold? And help or hurt the industry??
I love UA-cam, its filled with a wealth of information shared freely by some amazing people. I live in a country filled with organisations bud where you can't talk openly or share info. Thankfully i handed in my Chav membership when i was just 14 years old.
Thanks for sharing bud, I started trading CFD's about six years ago with a Swiss broker and had around 2,500 instruments.
I played around in the Forex market in the time period when it really was fast & furious. Such a learning curve to go around. I've been told stock trading is much easier, and i hope it is cause today i'm with a new broker who's opened over 30,000 + instruments which include CFD's, ETF's etc This is a major step up the ladder towards becoming a professional trader. Due to the panic that's currently setting into the market place, one feels that Gold stock is a must look at today.
{You Chav's getting all the good info ; }
Sven, P/E ratios are a poor way to evaluate value in a gold miner. You are buying the present value of the margin of the reserves in the ground plus current production. Above that, you are paying for the companies ability to find additional assets. A short cut is looking at BV and putting a multiple on it.
can you elaborate please.. thanks.
yes. I like to calculate the present value of free cash flows. mostly discussed price to cash flow, pe only with royalties
@@soumodip_majumdar la
@@Value-Investing tu t vu ce
It would be interesting with an update on these, how did they perform since the video was made and also a comparison with how did VanEck Gold Miners ETF or iShares Gold Producers ETF do in the same period.
So a look at what is the risk/benefit in picking individual stocks over an ETF if you believe a specific sector like gold is going to perform well in the future.
good suggestion!
I'll second that. An update on individual stocks for my interests. Are the companies performing better or worse?
Hi Sven! BIG question, is a gold stock/company only worthwhile if the financials look decent?
after watching both your videos on gold, I noticed that many gold companies have terrible valuations/financials. Their earnings are terrible etc..
most overvalued, but it all depends on the price of gold
Sven, first off, I want to say great job with this channel. Yours is the only investment channel I've been inspired to subscribe to and I learn something with every video. I'm very interested in uranium, and you mentioned an upcoming video on this in one of the previous videos. If you could break down the potential of the uranium market and evaluate the URA ETF in the way you did in this video, that would be really helpful. Thanks, and keep up the good work.
that is an excellent idea, thanks!
hey sven, the video is about a year old now. do you plan on publishing an update? my personal favourite in this video was newcrest as they have a long reserve life span, a decent cash flow yield and growth potential. "mining costs were below 800, so it's a good margin of safety", you said. which one was yours? do you also prefer newcrest over others?
I am not in Newcrest but I recently did a video on them:-)
Thank you that was a very well explained video.
What are your thoughts on Alio gold inc. Just bought some and think they could be good.
I'll be looking into gold miners soon and make a comparative analysis.
Will be very much looking forward to that. Have a great day!
Sven, thanks for previous reply! From 2 years ago your sentiment was buy the best ( least debt ); best risk profile. Unless I am wrong did you infer leave the ETF buy the individual Miner? Please advise. Also has your position changed post Covid 2 years later. I get investing in mining is a hedge. Are you bearish or bullish on these stocks going into May 2020 ,thanks Dan ( INTERESTING TOPIC !!! )
I have made my money with gold miners since then. I don't usually bet when it is already hot.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. that’s what I thought. Barrick and Newmont rich
Hi Sven, what is your view of the Vanguard Precious Metals mutual fund (VGPMX) that invests in gold mining companies? How do you compare the risk of investing in say Harmony Gold and Edorado Gold?
VGPMX's top 10 holdings are:
1 Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
2 B2Gold Corp.
3 Newmont Mining Corp.
4 Barrick Gold Corp.
5 Franco-Nevada Corp.
6 Randgold Resources Ltd.
7 Rio Tinto
8 Kinross Gold Corp.
9 Nevsun Resources Ltd.
10 Endeavour Mining Corp.
Ten largest holdings = 39.8% of total net assets
p.s. I have the feeling I am asking a dumb question... ;)
it is not a dumb question. the risk of investing is much bigger with individual names as you can end up with zero. When using a fund you get a bit of everything which makes it more related to the price of gold and much less risky
Sven, Can you please simply list tickers that are key points of the video at the end of
the description? Like, in this case, it would just be: GDX, NEM, ABX, GG etc...
Yes I should do that,. However, you have all of them at 1:29 in the video.
Hi Sven, quick question about Barrick; you say it’s got a lot of debt, but is quite stable as it’s most of it is not maturing until 2032. How would this be affected by rising interest rates? Are loans like this, by companies, always variable, or can they be fixed (like your mortgage!) I like barrack but the high debt concerns me. Thanks
I don't know how much of their debt is fixed or variable. However, there is a decline in production that is worrying the street which might be costly to replace and then you would see the debt go up.
Hey Sven are you still buying miners. What about GDX ETFs? I just don’t have time to track them. They’re mainly barrick new int and newcrest in those ETFs right. Do you think GDX is ok?
not for me, but might be for others.
Sven:
Assuming an upward price projection for Gold price in 2018
To get multiple returns from stock, few questions need an answer.
Gold mining projects should be in pipeline to get completed in coming 6 to 18 months.
If outstanding shares are low or low equity base of companies shall give higher returns in comparison to others because high growth in EPS in case of projects getting completed in say 12 months.
Investors need to look such stocks with EPS growth which should explode many times though same companies can have size of production. Bigger the project size with lower equity base shall outperform other gold mining companies.
junior should be avoided
Sven what's the deal with gold cascading down going into this late cycle? I see silver topping gold over the last few months, which we rarely see in history. Is gold losing its allure as the precious metal of choice?
I know rising interest rates and rising dollar are head-winds to gold, but going into a market-top, we usually see gold and commodities ride up in late cycles. Is gold just too early in this late-cycle, or will these interest rates/rising dollar continue to keep gold from breaking out?
Also, how much would you say bitcoin has eaten into gold as its constantly being marketed as digital gold. Millennials i talk to hate the idea of buying gold, but they seem more open to cryptos. Have you found that in your research as well?
bitcoin too small to influence anything.
as for the short term gold, what you said has an impact and as I always say, gold is a long term hedge, nothing else.
Hello,
Perhaps you can analyze in detail the gold mining company Pretium Resources Inc.
If I remember correctly, he commented in previous videos that Buffet bought shares in this company.
Thank you!
Here you go: ua-cam.com/video/qfSsV8W0KJo/v-deo.html
I don't think Buffett would buy premium :-)
thanks for the video. Any chance you could also cover any convertible's out on these or other good junior stocks (gold/silver). If it's a volatile trade to begin with why not try to maximize the upside over time ?
hm, do you have something specific in mind and where it is traded?
NST. Northern Star Resources - ASX AU stock - Great return over past 5 years !!!
I like SBM more been buying bulk SBM lately
If one was going to buy either of these through a fidelity account, what would the tickers be? I want to research these companies but most times people give the ticker and no name or the name and no ticker (and with just the ticker it can be confusing.
Michael for example is it NST.AX or AU?
You've become one of my fav UA-camrs over the past several months and I appreciate your channel's curated content and its non-biased perspective. Have you considered starting a Patreon or accepting BTC / LTC / PayPal tips by linking some addresses in your video descriptions? Just wondering if there was a way for us to show appreciation besides ad clicking + subscription
I have a book coming out and I will set up a monthly written newsletter, videos are entertaining but can't really transmit all the value of my research :-) So, I will be happy to have you as a customer.
Not a whole lot of talk lately here or in the oil tanker space (on your videos). Both I'm interested in now.
Sven, have you been active in these spaces in the last couple months?
no, I don't think tankers are for me
@@Value-Investing makes sense, they may be more of a special situation rather than normalized fcf to ev over a cycle.
Kinda surprised to not hear more on gold miners though. Maybe I'm pretty late to the party but I don't think the party will be short lived.
Goldcorp inc. Is at $10.80 I might wait another week for the stock to drop more and invest my 5 grand for the long term. Thanks for the all the info!
let me first china and then we will look at the miners - a lot of cheapness there again.
Why is Anglogold Ashanti not among your top ten miners? Many sources put them at No 3 in Gold Production and at no 10 in Market Capitalization.
that was more than 2 years ago:-)
Thoughts on first majestic silver?
I haven't yet found the time to write about silver.
emnnews.com/2018/06/19/analysts-outlook-first-majestic-silver-ag-2/
What are the risks of buy EGO today?
Thank you for sharing, it has been insightful watching your video. I am curious what is the NUGT about, what is your thought about it? Thanks!
NUGT is highly leveraged and really more from short term traders, not for portfolio positioning.
Yes NUGT is only four short term trading. I made over 12 trades on nugt in 2019. I closed all with gains most were over 10%.
Hi. This is 4 months ago video. Can you give suggestion on Sibanye gold and Harmony gold stocks? I have been stacking them since last month. Both of them around - 10% drop now. I am deciding to add in more later on before or after the fed announcement. Double up my investment then it will make this 2 stocks become around 30% of my holdings.
I always like to bet on just few stocks i think is fresh rather than buying too many rotten eggs.
30% in those is a lot and I see you have a short term orientation - gold miners for me are just a long long term hedge so I just rebalance around big moves and not that much on the small ones.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. thanks for replying and your recommendation. Appreciates it. Im 50/50 sure only. But i do see sibanye gold undervalued so as harmony gold. Currently my holdings just 15%. But i might have to leverage it to balance my loses. It will become 30%. Im looking to take profit by the end of the year with double capital growth on most gold miners investment. Hopefully. But its just purely speculation. Another reason why im putting so much on gold is because im not sure what stocks to buy in for now. Most of the stocks is overvalued and i already sold alot after profit taking since last month. I speculate most stocks is already in danger zone now. Im happy to buy in again if theres a market correction after fed eate announce. Stocks in my watchlist. Alibaba, tencent, china mobile, kraft heinz, Google, Ibm, royal dutch shell etc.
Most of the above stocks i already took profit selling them since last end of the month.
Thank you for another educational and well-made video, Sven. You present alot of stats, facts and opinions, but it easy to follow when you are so prepared and to-the-point.
I have invested a part of my portfolio in Platinum Group Metals ltd (PLG). Would like to get your opinion. I think it has a very high risk/reward asymmetry, if you will ever look at the white gold!
best regards
Sven, M.Sc
(norway)
Hi Sven, what a great name you have! I have discussed palladium as for platinum I am a bit concerned about the risk of a quick shift to electric if they bring down the cost of those batteries. ua-cam.com/video/T11SsVI4Dxk/v-deo.html
i would say the chances of gold to go below 900 are near zero, at least for long run, if eventually the price go there, everybody and his sister would jump on gold.
Hi Jorge: My experience is that if something goes waaaaaay down in price, no one will want it. Look at housing. After 2008, it was in a HUGE slump. It was cheap & no one wanted it. Now that the prices are high - everyone wants in. (P.S. I'm selling my house this year)
Hm, you never know what can happen, the key is to be prepared for anything. But from a probability perspective let's say 20% with a short term stay below $1,000 or $900 where the probability for long term lower gold prices would be 5%.
MegaBuyer you have a point there, but my suspition is that there is deep pockets in this world who understand the value of gold that would take advantage of that drop. just like it happen in 2008, but you are right about retails consumers. they always came late to the party.lol
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. i wouldnt put it better.
thats exactly what people said about oil a few years ago... if you said it would go to $30 you would have been laughed at...
I really like your analysis, but after watching it i ask myself: Why should the gold price rise, when all the big producers will increase production in the next years?
Not Barrick and Newmont and others hope to increase, there it a long way to that. however, gold prices depend more on sentiment, therefore it is a hedge, not a supply demand investment.
Sven, what is diffference between juniors and miners, thanks
size:-) Juniors might not be producing anything yet
Very interesting.thanks sven
I think exposure to them all by buying gdx & gdxj is a good play as its quite diversified by its nature.why punt on a few when you can punt on them all
Wouldn't you say gold has outperformed the miners, with so much more security? Gold mines are so risky, bullion not so.
depends what you buy - be careful with averages
I do like your channel. Thanks for educating people and making the planet a better place to be. Keep up the good work.
Gold miners are very cheap right now historically. It’s been a very bad 7 years for them. Personally, I think they have nowhere to go but up at this point as long as they don’t go broke first which is why it the bigger miners. I’m happy to receive annual dividends in the event I need to hold for manny years to see gains worthy of cashing out.
why not go with a fund or ETF that represents the bullion?
depends on one's portfolio preferences. With miners I can have a similar hedge effect with less portfolio exposure and more volatility to take advantage of.
still unsure btw the two -maybe you can explain this a little more if you have time.
The reason I stoped buying gold and silver ETFs and started buying miners is the the biggest miners pay dividends and they increase dramatically when the metal prices rise modestly. I like ABX. Has very high growth potential and a 1% annual dividend. It has risen 25% in the last month and even after that, the price is still very low. I see 400% up side if gold goes into a bull market as it did 8 years ago.
Hi Myles. I figured it would be the dividends. Did you own the miners during the last recession? Just wondering how they did, compared to the bullion. I would imagine you have to trade this at the right time since the 5 year return is minus 5%+
Lynn Fishman RN I did not own the miners during the last recession but they had a peak stock price of about 200-500% higher than what they are selling for right now and then they crashed along with the metals which tells me they are not the type of stock you hold forever. I’m just planning to hold until the next run up when they are up and stocks are down. Holding silver, gold or minding stocks for the last 7 years wasn’t good for anybody who did so but all 3 are now at historically low prices, opposite of the high prices for the rest of the stock market. I felt like tech stocks are a waste of money at recent prices and now the rest of the market seems to agree as they are crashing while mining stocks are going up.
great video, did you do the video on 40 next market cap gold minors?
there are some, but not on all
Sven, Newcrest is trading at PE 71, extremely expensive. Something wrong when you say Aussie miner is cheap or cheaper than NEM ?
don't use PE with miners, what is the cash flow
Any update on EGO?
also curious to hear your thoughts on this. seems like the price is reasonable given the price of gold.
arbitrage decision in April:-)
why do you think they will get a favorable decision?
Trx? Tanzanian gold Corp??
Video on what happened in the market the last few trading days?
The news will be published later today :-)
Can you do a video on Patriot One?
What is that, give me some more info?
Which is your current favorite.
None of the big miners, I hold just a few medium ones as hedges.
Which ones do you hold
I hold upcoming Aurania Resources. They start drilling November. -Large property (2080 km2) 100%-owned, unexplored and along the same major geological trend that hosts the bulk of gold and silver deposits that constitute the Jurassic Metallogenic Belt in southeastern Ecuador.
Great video Sven. Thanks
Thanks for watching Luis and for your support!
Very interesting to look at gold miners and such right now. Especially with many thinking about a possible crash in the near future!
Yes, the time is close to look at them again.
I don’t do business in Africa lately. Instability. My experience with operations there have taught me that Africa is Africa. She has her own sets of rules.
Africa is Africa and always promising
Thank you for this informative update.
I'm cautious about miners short term though. Gold&silver started intermediate decline, which could continue during next 5-6 weeks. Therefore the miners, which lagged the recent gold price increase, could decline as well.
Anything can happen, that is why I always say to keep a small percentage of portfolio and rebalance accordingly.
what are the worst gold stocks?
hm, good question
Thanks Sven!
I have a position in (IAG) myself it's a cheaper one trading at $5.60 as of today's close very low pe at around 5.
You are talking so often about gold but I don't see this 20x increase of goldminers when gold doubles in any stock history. Gold has been very expensive the past few years and gold miners have produced terrible results.
there are some newer videos discussing how most gold miners are overpriced. I made 50% on one in 2019 and recently sold, and that is most of my story with gold for now.
AG, LRTNF, MAG, GLDLF some solid Juniors in my opinion.
Check PLZL (Polus Gold)
Quality stuff
Thanks!
👍
GFI is a great gold stock at a super low price...
Good job, Sven. I like your videos. Very informative!
Thanks!
Good info , thank you
thank you, sir
Great video! Thank you for sharing !!
Thanks!
with Auy you cant loose
That's what I said at $4.50........but in principle I agree at todays price levels
Thx to your analysis to the Gold-Miners. All these miners are a good hedge, but they are IMO very bad long-term investments.
Adam Hamilton is also analysing a bit these companies: www.zealllc.com/2018/gmq218fn.htm
.
it is really important to find the best individual fits for a portfolio.
Buy gold. Not miners.
for those who want to engage into any online trading of a thing, you better trash that from your mind they are all scammers
you are talking about short term trade or brokers?
A safe bet with huge return? Tower Hill mines - THM. Check it. The best leverage out there.
Thanks, will check it out!
The share price will explode when gold will kiss 1500$. 9 M once in the ground, with low grade. Sounds crazy but when smart money will flow in the precious metal space, this is gonna be Huge. No matter if the project is expensive to be built, the price will reflect the value of the project and now is the most undervalued asset to buy.
7 full time employees, what a scam stock! Stay away!!
$GLDLF is my bae
Smart man! I just got done telling Sven about them on another video. Amir Adnani knows what he's doing.
Hi Jack. Take a quick look at Aurania Resources that will make first dig hole any day now. Enormous potential and thats why we are here. Aurania.com Listed in Canada, Frankfurt and US. Junior miners but senior management.