GOLD was the first stock where I was thoroughly impressed by its valuations because I finally understood the numbers. I can afford silver by the ounce but I buy GOLD by the share.
Have been investing since 2018., 80% gold, 10% silver, 10% uranium. Very hard at times, lost some money, learned a lot. This year up side lectures. Im focusing on cyclicality in the mining sector. Exiting gold, entering copper and unloved commodities. Buyout candidates, like you had Nevsun resources for example. Not alot of downside risk but much upside. Fun fact, Nevsun was the second investment in my life... First tranch and like a mounth later made 85$ or something. XD Id recommend near producers and smaller producers at this stage of the market. Its still not fully priced in. Near producers Pure gold mining (PGM), and Aurcana Silver corp (AUN) Smaller producers like Gran Colombia gold corp (GCM) Equinox gold is a fantastic bigger name and Ross Beaty company that has more upside potencial. Thanks for the education Sven.
Have a look at ASX:KTA. Very cashed up gold exploration company in Australia with one of the best potential tenements located in Lachlan Fold Belt next to Cadia Valley which is the biggest gold mine in Australia. Massive gold assays getting released very soon. Easy short term 2-3 bagger stock and long term potential for 10++ bag. Current share price 8c with a market capitalization of $21.8 million so it's still very early stages. Not financial advice, personal opinion only from a very optimistic holder. Please do your own research. Date of posting: 30 October 2020.
I think the average real cost of gold Mining is the safety margin for the gold price ..as its represent the supply restriction responding to the demand ....so as it's approximately 1200$ so the price of Gold is very Risky at 2000$
Sven your original gold analysis and purchase of Alacer lead me to look for something similar on the NYSE. It has since taken me deep into the resource sector at large. Now 2/3 Sven value, 1/3 careful speculation in metals and uranium. Foolish I know but you are still my voice of reason
Thanks for the update! I personally think, gold is on a long term trend upwards since its increasingly becoming obvious to the public that our fiat currencies are in a death spiral. Gold miners may become a staple investment. But this is not such a contrarian approach as you like to use. I like my Polymetal & Harmony Gold! Petropavlovsk great too but became to risky. As contrarian, what do you think of platinum (miners)? Platinum has been getting cheaper for over a decade now! There might be some upside on the horizon? Some platinum miners are also becoming profitable atm due to the gold the are producing alongside and bear the upside potential of platinum. Sibanye Stillwater for example - What do you think, Sven?
Plains All American Pipeline is a great stock to buy right now. Up more than 10% since 6 months ago when I was telling people about it. Still has a lot more room to go. Probably will double before the end of year.
when should the shares be sold? I know it may seem like a trivial question but in case of a growth of 33 35 40 (growth supported by an increase in gold for example to 2300 2500) when do you think that the investment in barrik could become too risky compared to the possible further gains?
Isn't there also a lag in production miner's profits? I thought most of them sold their ongoing production on the futures market, so a rise or drop in price today won't much affect their revenue until they go back to the futures market.
Love your show,its a pity not everyone gets your value (once upon a time I was once that guy). My only problem with this stock is how they are not buying back their own share which decreases your value of share , I would really want to know your opinion on this?
@@Value-Investing I see but its better if they buy their own shares then selling them,because with that doesn't that as an investor devalue your own share
Sven, thank you so much for your great analysis. You help us out a lot with your insights. What do you think about the current price of Barrick Gold? Is it a buy now?
Not saying you are wrong but why buy a stock that has remained almost perfectly flat for 30 years ? There are 1-2% of dividend yield but that doesnt seem enough, so is it just worth holding for the swing trading ?
Great video, thanks Sven! I am a new subscriber and rally like how you explain the way you analyze a company and break things down. I would also find video useful describing the different gold investment options and their respective risks/rewards (I.e. physical gold, majors, minors, tiny listed exploration companies).
If the dólar is loosing buying power and the bank is at 0% interest. I thought gold would be a good idea, but gold seems to have a very high price. What would you recommend ?
KL are okay if you can accept the share price may drop 25% in a couple of days. I think a lot of shareholders were surprised when KL swapped nearly $5B stock and lost status as a low cost gold producer to acquire Detour Gold. The main motivation of gold mining companies is to find more gold to mine so they stay in business, returning profits to shareholders is not a priority.
@@brainstormer2520 The comment was a warning about the unknown future w.r.t. what already happened last year 22/11/2019. Share price didn't recover until July 2020. I sold with near 20% loss.
@@brainstormer2520 I'm just saying since KL did it once maybe they'll do something similar again. As far as I know the stock swap was a management decision and ordinary shareholders knew nothing until after it happened.
BUY POINTS FNV at 63.53 when it was hated and PASS at 12.97 during the covid sell off. Now companies are undebted so for me is a great time to hold them firmly. I love to jump in after years of price consolidations.
Thanks Sven. Nice video. This is what will happen to you if you invest in gold at the moment. Gold will go to 2 thousand and I guarantee your first thought will be ‘yes, but it could go to 3 thousand” so you hold. The next thing you know it drops to 1 thousand and stays there for 5 years. You sweat. Eventually it goes back to 2 thousand and you will sell out, glad to get your money back. It immediately goes up again. So you buy higher, hoping to catch the wave up. But it doesn’t. This will repeat. So, the moral of this story, buy when gold is cheap (not now) , buy a low priced producer, someone making money at 1 thousand dollar gold.and set yourself a price at which you will sell. In other words, become an investor not a speculator in the price of gold Don’t be greedy....But you will, your a gold investor, an optimist
Dr. S: You are bullish on Copper, and Chile provides 1/3 of the world's copper, so how about doing something on Chili stocks? If copper causes a boom in the economy, then something like ENIA (power company) should do well, right?
I visited Carlin, Nevada. I asked a couple of people if they ever heard of Dr. Sven Carlin. Unfortunately, they did not. But don't worry, Dr. S, your 97K subscribers is close to 50 times the population of the Carlin (2018 = 2,270 people). FUN FACT: If you are ever trying to find a cool vacation experience, please consider Carlin, Nevada. Beverly Hills is only about an hour away if I remember correctly. Uh, that's Beverly Hills, Nevada, not California. You know, the place where you can see mountain sheep and mule deer in their native habitat. What a fun afternoon!!! Bring your teenagers, they'll LOVE it!
Thank you for the analysis. But I can't agree with the conclusion. QE continues and Powell said they won't be raising rates any time soon. That's actually an excellent predictor of the current trend in gold prices. In this case, we do actually know what's going to happen because the FED said what they'll do.
@@Value-Investing Thank you for your reply. But it doesn't seem so. Gold price is at the previous crisis levels, yet this crisis has been worse thus far and the FED has printed much more money. Also the gold price doesn't seem to be priced into the mining stocks. Nor can I clearly see less of a downside for industrial metals than for precious metals at this time. If anything, copper prices have spiked while industrial output is slumping. I parted with both my copper and steel producers already. I don't see how the fundamentals could be driving these higher prices at the moment. People are pricing in a lot of future industrial growth just at this time. I'm feeling apprehensive.
Hi Sven, could you please do a video update on Copper mining and how that plays in to the current EV market trends? I am particularly curious about Copper vs Nickel demand and how Copper plays in to that with regard to extracting Nickel from Copper sulphides. As always love your work and analysis.
Great decision. Ray Dalio allocated 10% of his Hedge Fund's Capital to gold (Actually to GLD - but he is a big investor, so if things go wrong at the ETF, he still has a good chance to stand for physical delivery). A few other hedge funds also allocate 10%. I have decided to go "overweight" gold at 25% (7.5% silver) because the macro case is so strong.
I try to keep a small amount of my portfolio in commodities like gold, oil, copper. The tricky part is buying at the right time. I find there's a season for everything in the market, but that doesn't make it easy to step in front of the commodity train. As far as adding business risk to the equation, I agree with you, but I also like having a management team that can help the business navigate cycles. Owning the commodity outright doesn't offer that. Although then you have to really pay attention to management's disposition and be comfortable saying goodbye to the stock if they go rogue. ;)
🧡🤗🧡 we are talking 🤜🤛 thank you so much. and hopefully you will do a video talking about silver Too. Y love your GOLD and SCCO videos you are one of my favorite channel on UA-cam and I am always watching you. 🤝🤗🤝
@Sven : thanks for your meaningful efforts to make this clip. Could you please analyze recent Snowflake IPO that both Warren Buffet and Salesforce already invested. Your valuable fact based opinions/key successful investment criteria of IPO stocks please. Thanks
Barrick is doing a one off dividend of near 50c per share in 3 payments between may and Sept. Plus 9c per share quarterly dividend (needs to be raised)
@@Value-Investing that's why if gold goes up or even at 1800usd levels they should be cash flow heavy and can raise the dividend back to a reasonable level (it's too low right now). I heard it was more than a $1 quarterly dividend around 2011. I hope they can buy back stock also if they have a lot of cash.
I’ve been primarily invested in gold and silver miners since 2017. That has played out very nicely with manny positions up 3X but I have started to sell some positions and move the funds to other growth stocks suck as the electric EV startups, Tesla, Amazon, etc. it seems that inflation drives these stocks up more than gold or the miners and I think there is a small but significant chance the peak price in gold is behind on this bull market. If we don’t set a new all time record in the next month or two, we are looking at a bear flag and I will sell more of my miners until I’m down to around 20% exposure. I will probably sell everything but Barrick and PAAS.
@Pearl Perlita Venegas I don’t plan on selling all until after I retire but having 80% of net worth tied up in miners is too much for me to sleep well. Traditional investors don’t exceed 10% metals exposure and I’ve rebalanced to about 40% which is still a lot but I’m comfortable with that. I’m the last 3 months, everything from stocks to metals has been going down so it would seem cash was the best play. Maybe about time to buy the dip.
Hi Sven, great that you are coming back to the roots (the Carlin mine explains a lot ;-). What do you think about Roxgold, Turminalina Metals and Amex exploration?
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Gold is a cyclical commodity with gold stocks being a great leverage, so only buy when everybody hates the gold miners and sell when when everybody loves them...it is very very simple. Gran Colombia and Jaguar mining are trading at extremely low valuation, already paying dividends and having incredible cash flow. I think when Sven becomes Bullish on gold again it is time to sell ( ; Just a joke Sven!! Great video thank you!
FeroxX early innings...Sven needed to comment on Barrick Gold because one of his mentors, Warren Buffet bought it.... Sven doesn’t want to get burned on gold miners as lot of analysts and institutions lost money in the gold bear market. He has a reputation to withold, I don’t worry about reputation, I just look at the facts and calculate the odds. At this moment the odds for me are favourable because Gran Colombia is undervalued even at 1500 dollar gold....Yes it is speculation...the market is so crazy that I prefer to speculate on undervalued companies instead of Tesla’s ....we will know in a few years who was right
@@jdr4674 hahaha noooo...JAG had share reverse 10 to 1 a few weeks ago...JAG is really oké...but GCM is better now...Eric Sprott didn't get red carpet treatment, so he left angry...selling all his shares ...I was buying some of them for cheap cheap 😂
Berkshire Hathaway and a large US pension fund recently started to invest in gold. These are large institutions, they need large numbers of shares, so they need to invest in large gold companies. If this trend continues, the large gold companies suddenly have a lot more upside, even though they are large companies and you would therefore think there isn't a lot of upside any more. This makes Barrick, Wheaton, Newmont, etc. extra attractive (but only if more pension funds etc. will step into gold). Would you agree with me, or is this flawed reasoning? Greetings from Holland! - Rob
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. things are cyclical... you can look at other examples of times that are similar to today. Late 1960’s etc.. Peter Lynch is also a buyer...
If it is for the purpose of storing value, I would rather have gold long term than a gold mining stock. Using gold as a hedge is one thing, having a gold mining stock for added volatility is counter intuitive in my opinion.
@@businessman1060 You don't have to store gold. There's a lot of value in a small amount of space. Unless you're planning on buying millions of dollars worth.
@@Value-Investing Well i was thinking Ljubljana but the prices are around 3.5k to 5k per m2.. Should i waut for the market crash becouse people are saying this for the last 2 years that the prices will drop or will have to atleast..
I was very disappointed to hear that Barrick lost out on the renewal of a mining lease in PNG (Papua New Guinea) earlier in the year, that in 2019 put out ~250,000 ounces of gold (which I think is about 10% by value of the PNG annual GDP). Does anyone have any news on this? The non-renewal of the lease is being challenged in the PNG supreme court (it will be a huge test of judicial independence), but even if Barrick's case fails, I suspect that this is a tactic from the Government. They awarded the lease to a local gold Company (in a seemingly non-transparent fashion) who have stated they are willing to negotiate with Barrick if they want to return to the mine (which is now closed). It could be just a re-negotiation of terms. In which case, the costs to extract per ounce are going up, but Barrick's access to the mining location is still possible. Of course, if they can't work it out, it would be a drag on their bottom line (albeit not a huge one).
Gold is risky now? Why? What has changed from a year ago to warrant a lower price? The way I see it, this is just the beginning and we still have a long way to go. Everything is happening the way gold bulls predicted it would, the CBs are printing currency and there's no end in sight, gold is steady, it's coiling and refuses to drop - looks very bullish to me. I see no change to the gold thesis, silver hasn't even reached OTH, the institutional investors are slowly starting to notice gold - its all good, still early
You forgot to throw in there that this time institutional investment is coming in from Berkshire and Pension Funds and super low oil prices giving miners high margins.
Gold price DOES NOT directly affect stock price of Gold Mining companies. It's the profitability and stability of a company that affects the level of investor interest into their stock. Even if gold price skyrockets, if a company's fundamentals become weak due to whatever negative circumstances, the stock price will tank regardless of the increase of Gold price. Therefore, before purchasing shares in a Gold Mining company, you must perform due diligence
🐱👤 The goldminers value depend on the expected gold price in the next years. I epect a rising gold price -- thx to the Fed! Correct, the leverage in the miners goes down with a rising gold price and the risk in the miners goes up at the end of the cycle where the miners spend too much money for buying new resources in the ground. Many people do not understand this. Sven has his own mine--- nice 👍 Currently I "like" Fortuna Silver Mines, Kirkland Lake Gold (for me a 10-bagger!) and some Australian Miners. But in general I hate the miners! They are going down so quick and if they are in a bear market they go down by 80% and more. .
Love to hear your opnion on GCM Sven....trading at very low valuation for a 220k ounce producer....making around 150 million cash....check out the market cap...just insane...yeah Colombia....is really very ok country ...US is helping them with the war on drugs , so this shouldn’t be a big issue
With current price at 1770, at least gold miners should generate good free cash flow and div. Gold miner stock at current gild price still looks a good bet from dividends. Ofcourse if gold price rises then great. Or am i missing something.
@@Value-Investing yes that is so. Barrick at sub 20 per share. In aug 2016 gold at 1300 and share at 19.80. this looks definitely as a buy. What do you think? Barrick sold some south american mines, got its debt down. Copper can compensate. Thoughts?
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Gold, the commodity, is really a bizarre thing. It's hoarded by both the general public and governments worldwide. I haven't looked at it recently, but I researched it years ago while working on my graduate degrees. The part that is traded on the market openly
I waited this video for so long! Thanks Sven! I agree no one should be 100% in gold, but gold miners are useful in a portfolio perspective because they paid a divident when other companies face difficulties. This is why Warren Buffet is buying.
Considering you 'started the channel on gold miners, you seem to have dropped the ball here. After missing the huge upside in gold miners and gold your bearish because you feel you missed out? Maybe its better to take some advice from someone who is actually profiting from the trade. Everything is driven by 'sentiment' the 'sentiment for gold is driven by the fact that you have a negative return on bonds, so why not allocate a small amount to gold? Gold is primarily driven by interest rates and interest rates have been trading downwards for decades. Now rates are at zero it would be no surprise to see gold hit an all time high (in real terms). Could it go to 1500 first? Sure. It could, but what exactly is going to reverse sentiment towards treasuries and gold so swiftly and for how long? While the chances of an interest rate hike in the next few years is very small the risk benefit of the gold price going much higher is clearly favored. Barrick is a quality company and a great buy with a horizon of three years. Even Berkshire bought it. Personally I buy junior mining companies for the explosive upside potential which more than offsets the risks of loss in a small portion of the portfolio.
Accomulating Barrick? I made some research on micro cap value gold stocks and I found Caledonia mining! Solid balance sheet, p/e ratio 9 and dividend of 1.86 % . Anybody is following this company too?
Only about 10% of the world supply is traded regularly; most of it is overwhelmingly stored in government vaults. This has always been an X factor: what are the government's intentions?
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@@kellypetersons4326 Thank you very much for your kind offer. Please accept my apologies. I'm more interested in making long term investment and sustainable income using mindset learn on this channel.
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Great analysis Sven! Would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the risk reward perspective of investing in silver right now, especially given that the silver to gold ratio is still trading around it’s long term average of 70. Silver’s demand is also expected to go up due to its role in renewable applications. If Biden wins the election, then a promised $2T clean energy plan also provides a better investment thesis than gold!
I'm buying value in mining. Looking at $KRR.to, Australian producer at a run rate of 100k/ year about to update resources from theire large land package. I suspect they raise guidance for 2021. I believe their AISC will be $1000 in Q4.
GOLD was the first stock where I was thoroughly impressed by its valuations because I finally understood the numbers. I can afford silver by the ounce but I buy GOLD by the share.
Have been investing since 2018., 80% gold, 10% silver, 10% uranium. Very hard at times, lost some money, learned a lot. This year up side lectures. Im focusing on cyclicality in the mining sector. Exiting gold, entering copper and unloved commodities.
Buyout candidates, like you had Nevsun resources for example. Not alot of downside risk but much upside. Fun fact, Nevsun was the second investment in my life... First tranch and like a mounth later made 85$ or something. XD
Id recommend near producers and smaller producers at this stage of the market. Its still not fully priced in.
Near producers Pure gold mining (PGM), and Aurcana Silver corp (AUN)
Smaller producers like Gran Colombia gold corp (GCM)
Equinox gold is a fantastic bigger name and Ross Beaty company that has more upside potencial.
Thanks for the education Sven.
Looks like a solid buy right now
will make new video
@@Value-Investing very needed right now! Thanks!
11:00 "Carlin mine is of course a good mine" made my day ahahahah
There's also a Federico, so it might be very good indeed :)
Yes, that was too funny 😂
Because it's mine :)
Have a look at ASX:KTA. Very cashed up gold exploration company in Australia with one of the best potential tenements located in Lachlan Fold Belt next to Cadia Valley which is the biggest gold mine in Australia. Massive gold assays getting released very soon. Easy short term 2-3 bagger stock and long term potential for 10++ bag. Current share price 8c with a market capitalization of $21.8 million so it's still very early stages. Not financial advice, personal opinion only from a very optimistic holder. Please do your own research. Date of posting: 30 October 2020.
You're right about the Carlin mine. It has been producing Gold every video. Thanks Sven.
I think the average real cost of gold Mining is the safety margin for the gold price ..as its represent the supply restriction responding to the demand ....so as it's approximately 1200$ so the price of Gold is very Risky at 2000$
100% agree with that statement
Sven your original gold analysis and purchase of Alacer lead me to look for something similar on the NYSE. It has since taken me deep into the resource sector at large. Now 2/3 Sven value, 1/3 careful speculation in metals and uranium. Foolish I know but you are still my voice of reason
Thanks for the update! I personally think, gold is on a long term trend upwards since its increasingly becoming obvious to the public that our fiat currencies are in a death spiral. Gold miners may become a staple investment. But this is not such a contrarian approach as you like to use. I like my Polymetal & Harmony Gold! Petropavlovsk great too but became to risky.
As contrarian, what do you think of platinum (miners)? Platinum has been getting cheaper for over a decade now! There might be some upside on the horizon? Some platinum miners are also becoming profitable atm due to the gold the are producing alongside and bear the upside potential of platinum. Sibanye Stillwater for example - What do you think, Sven?
What is your thoughts on warren buffet buying Barrick Gold?
I know it´s a small stake he did but still.
He could have kept adding as well we don't know yet
It was Berkshire Hathaway, so maybe not Buffet but Ted & Todd
He also dropped 6 billion on japanese stocks
hello Sven, i have a question. is time to buy gold? what do you think?
that is impossible to know, the only thing you can know is your strategy! ua-cam.com/video/Oqw7IRMVqSY/v-deo.html
Crushed it with gold stocks
Plains All American Pipeline is a great stock to buy right now. Up more than 10% since 6 months ago when I was telling people about it. Still has a lot more room to go. Probably will double before the end of year.
Great video!! I just bought GoldMining Inc. (GLDLF). Very bullish on gold!
when should the shares be sold? I know it may seem like a trivial question but in case of a growth of 33 35 40 (growth supported by an increase in gold for example to 2300 2500) when do you think that the investment in barrik could become too risky compared to the possible further gains?
I think I said it in the video! I have no crystal ball to predict where gold prices go!
Isn't there also a lag in production miner's profits? I thought most of them sold their ongoing production on the futures market, so a rise or drop in price today won't much affect their revenue until they go back to the futures market.
Love your show,its a pity not everyone gets your value (once upon a time I was once that guy).
My only problem with this stock is how they are not buying back their own share which decreases your value of share , I would really want to know your opinion on this?
buybacks depend on value, or how much cash the company has.
@@Value-Investing I see but its better if they buy their own shares then selling them,because with that doesn't that as an investor devalue your own share
Sven, thank you so much for your great analysis. You help us out a lot with your insights. What do you think about the current price of Barrick Gold? Is it a buy now?
it depends on you - how does it fit your portfolio strategy
Not saying you are wrong but why buy a stock that has remained almost perfectly flat for 30 years ? There are 1-2% of dividend yield but that doesnt seem enough, so is it just worth holding for the swing trading ?
ua-cam.com/video/PYWG1MPIL2k/v-deo.html
Great video, thanks Sven! I am a new subscriber and rally like how you explain the way you analyze a company and break things down. I would also find video useful describing the different gold investment options and their respective risks/rewards (I.e. physical gold, majors, minors, tiny listed exploration companies).
thanks!
If the dólar is loosing buying power and the bank is at 0% interest. I thought gold would be a good idea, but gold seems to have a very high price. What would you recommend ?
Nobody knows where the price of gold will go:-(
Thank you for your analysis. Compared to Barrick Gold, is Kirkland Lake Gold (KL) better? Thank you.
KL are okay if you can accept the share price may drop 25% in a couple of days. I think a lot of shareholders were surprised when KL swapped nearly $5B stock and lost status as a low cost gold producer to acquire Detour Gold. The main motivation of gold mining companies is to find more gold to mine so they stay in business, returning profits to shareholders is not a priority.
@@goldreserveWow! Couple of days?! Didn't happen, yet. Maybe, we can give your prediction 10 more days? See you in 10 days.
@@brainstormer2520 The comment was a warning about the unknown future w.r.t. what already happened last year 22/11/2019. Share price didn't recover until July 2020. I sold with near 20% loss.
@@goldreserve Detour Gold was acquired a while ago. Why should it have an effect now?
@@brainstormer2520 I'm just saying since KL did it once maybe they'll do something similar again. As far as I know the stock swap was a management decision and ordinary shareholders knew nothing until after it happened.
BUY POINTS FNV at 63.53 when it was hated and PASS at 12.97 during the covid sell off. Now companies are undebted so for me is a great time to hold them firmly.
I love to jump in after years of price consolidations.
Thanks Sven. Nice video.
This is what will happen to you if you invest in gold at the moment. Gold will go to 2 thousand and I guarantee your first thought will be ‘yes, but it could go to 3 thousand” so you hold. The next thing you know it drops to 1 thousand and stays there for 5 years. You sweat. Eventually it goes back to 2 thousand and you will sell out, glad to get your money back. It immediately goes up again. So you buy higher, hoping to catch the wave up. But it doesn’t. This will repeat.
So, the moral of this story, buy when gold is cheap (not now) , buy a low priced producer, someone making money at 1 thousand dollar gold.and set yourself a price at which you will sell. In other words, become an investor not a speculator in the price of gold
Don’t be greedy....But you will, your a gold investor, an optimist
What do you think about Eldorado (EGO)? Thanks
Dr. S: You are bullish on Copper, and Chile provides 1/3 of the world's copper, so how about doing something on Chili stocks? If copper causes a boom in the economy, then something like ENIA (power company) should do well, right?
high tax, expensive, hard etc... did it two years ago, not interested anymore.
Interested in your views on Polymetal International LSE: POLY as a gold stock and in contrast to Barrick.
Especially considering current price is 19 pound and estimate at 2000 dollar gold is at 30 pound
I own it. Based on my research it is the best gold miner choice out there.
I visited Carlin, Nevada. I asked a couple of people if they ever heard of Dr. Sven Carlin. Unfortunately, they did not. But don't worry, Dr. S, your 97K subscribers is close to 50 times the population of the Carlin (2018 = 2,270 people). FUN FACT: If you are ever trying to find a cool vacation experience, please consider Carlin, Nevada. Beverly Hills is only about an hour away if I remember correctly. Uh, that's Beverly Hills, Nevada, not California. You know, the place where you can see mountain sheep and mule deer in their native habitat. What a fun afternoon!!! Bring your teenagers, they'll LOVE it!
hahahahahaha
Thank you for the analysis. But I can't agree with the conclusion. QE continues and Powell said they won't be raising rates any time soon. That's actually an excellent predictor of the current trend in gold prices. In this case, we do actually know what's going to happen because the FED said what they'll do.
that should be already priced in:-)
@@Value-Investing Thank you for your reply. But it doesn't seem so. Gold price is at the previous crisis levels, yet this crisis has been worse thus far and the FED has printed much more money. Also the gold price doesn't seem to be priced into the mining stocks. Nor can I clearly see less of a downside for industrial metals than for precious metals at this time. If anything, copper prices have spiked while industrial output is slumping. I parted with both my copper and steel producers already. I don't see how the fundamentals could be driving these higher prices at the moment. People are pricing in a lot of future industrial growth just at this time. I'm feeling apprehensive.
It would be good if you share your thoughts on Newcrest Aussie miner. Thanks
Thanks @Sven for the great analysis. can you please review ENPH ?
Sven, any chance you can revisit Harmony (HMY)?
Can you have a look at the oil cycle/ stocks?
Yes please very interesting
what do you think of Nvidia Acquisition of Arm ...Do you think it represent strategic threat for Intel?
Hi Sven, could you please do a video update on Copper mining and how that plays in to the current EV market trends? I am particularly curious about Copper vs Nickel demand and how Copper plays in to that with regard to extracting Nickel from Copper sulphides. As always love your work and analysis.
I am researching copper stocks for my platform at the moment so there will be a video or two
@@Value-Investing thanks for the reply mate!
@@Value-Investing Copper and nickel! Looking forward to this video!
I switched my tiny 1% gold allocation from GLD to Barrick gold.
Great decision. Ray Dalio allocated 10% of his Hedge Fund's Capital to gold (Actually to GLD - but he is a big investor, so if things go wrong at the ETF, he still has a good chance to stand for physical delivery). A few other hedge funds also allocate 10%. I have decided to go "overweight" gold at 25% (7.5% silver) because the macro case is so strong.
Sven Carlin: as good as gold (at least in Nevada!). ;-)
Lol, that was good pun in video: ua-cam.com/video/-ZlPKehzCJ0/v-deo.html xD
Hahaha! 🤣 🤣
I try to keep a small amount of my portfolio in commodities like gold, oil, copper. The tricky part is buying at the right time. I find there's a season for everything in the market, but that doesn't make it easy to step in front of the commodity train.
As far as adding business risk to the equation, I agree with you, but I also like having a management team that can help the business navigate cycles. Owning the commodity outright doesn't offer that. Although then you have to really pay attention to management's disposition and be comfortable saying goodbye to the stock if they go rogue. ;)
🧡🤗🧡 we are talking 🤜🤛 thank you so much. and hopefully you will do a video talking about silver Too. Y love your GOLD and SCCO videos you are one of my favorite channel on UA-cam and I am always watching you.
🤝🤗🤝
Thank you Sven for your videos! Would you consider making a video about Chinese stocks and ETFs? How are things going there?
I don't do ETFs, but I am looking at a Chinese stock now!
You were right about the risk Sven, Barrick now at $22.9
@Sven : thanks for your meaningful efforts to make this clip.
Could you please analyze recent Snowflake IPO that both Warren Buffet and Salesforce already invested. Your valuable fact based opinions/key successful investment criteria of IPO stocks please. Thanks
Sven, would really love to get an update on TRQ if for nothing else then how incredibly entertaining the story continues to be.
Argonaut Gold is still very undervalued
Thank you for bringing on this subject, great video !
i think it is a great time to be investing in juniors with potential........12 months ago was even a better time, but that is hindsight!
I just heard today that Buffett bought barick gold about a month ago. I can't believe I missed that! Is that really true? What do you think about it?
we don't know who bought what with BRK, especially on the small stakes!
Barrick is doing a one off dividend of near 50c per share in 3 payments between may and Sept. Plus 9c per share quarterly dividend (needs to be raised)
Not much given the stock price
@@Value-Investing that's why if gold goes up or even at 1800usd levels they should be cash flow heavy and can raise the dividend back to a reasonable level (it's too low right now). I heard it was more than a $1 quarterly dividend around 2011. I hope they can buy back stock also if they have a lot of cash.
Cant go wrong with the Carlin mine that's for sure. I Already made a nice profit investing in it :)
I’ve been primarily invested in gold and silver miners since 2017. That has played out very nicely with manny positions up 3X but I have started to sell some positions and move the funds to other growth stocks suck as the electric EV startups, Tesla, Amazon, etc. it seems that inflation drives these stocks up more than gold or the miners and I think there is a small but significant chance the peak price in gold is behind on this bull market. If we don’t set a new all time record in the next month or two, we are looking at a bear flag and I will sell more of my miners until I’m down to around 20% exposure. I will probably sell everything but Barrick and PAAS.
@Pearl Perlita Venegas I don’t plan on selling all until after I retire but having 80% of net worth tied up in miners is too much for me to sleep well. Traditional investors don’t exceed 10% metals exposure and I’ve rebalanced to about 40% which is still a lot but I’m comfortable with that. I’m the last 3 months, everything from stocks to metals has been going down so it would seem cash was the best play. Maybe about time to buy the dip.
'Carlin', a gift that's keep on giving.
Hi Sven, great that you are coming back to the roots (the Carlin mine explains a lot ;-). What do you think about Roxgold, Turminalina Metals and Amex exploration?
haven't analysed them, yet!
Gold might go up 100% or it might go down 50%. So we should all just hang onto our dollars. They can't go down in price, right?
hahahah, good one!
lol I got laughed at when I started trading binary options. I was burnt out, needed a change, also wasn't expecting to be laughed out of the office when I mentioned my interest in investing in the stock market. Well, a few years later and $5.3 million in savings, I'm the one laughing now. Friends now want to know exactly what my i do to earn well I advise everyone to start trading in the stock market today for a better tomorrow that’s all I can say,thanks to Mr carlos att *carlos_1uptrades on instagram* . I’m making a living trading forex
Gold is a cyclical commodity with gold stocks being a great leverage, so only buy when everybody hates the gold miners and sell when when everybody loves them...it is very very simple. Gran Colombia and Jaguar mining are trading at extremely low valuation, already paying dividends and having incredible cash flow. I think when Sven becomes Bullish on gold again it is time to sell ( ; Just a joke Sven!! Great video thank you!
So.. what period are we in now? haha
40% dividend yield on Jaguar Mining? WHAT?!
Main shareholder Eric Sprott himself?! WOW
Gran Colombia looks horrible tho.
FeroxX early innings...Sven needed to comment on Barrick Gold because one of his mentors, Warren Buffet bought it.... Sven doesn’t want to get burned on gold miners as lot of analysts and institutions lost money in the gold bear market. He has a reputation to withold, I don’t worry about reputation, I just look at the facts and calculate the odds. At this moment the odds for me are favourable because Gran Colombia is undervalued even at 1500 dollar gold....Yes it is speculation...the market is so crazy that I prefer to speculate on undervalued companies instead of Tesla’s ....we will know in a few years who was right
@@jdr4674 hahaha noooo...JAG had share reverse 10 to 1 a few weeks ago...JAG is really oké...but GCM is better now...Eric Sprott didn't get red carpet treatment, so he left angry...selling all his shares ...I was buying some of them for cheap cheap 😂
Sven have you looked at hotel stocks? They are hated now, but may be good longterm investment
could be interesting!
What's your opinion about BTG b2gold ?
haven't looked in a while!
Berkshire Hathaway and a large US pension fund recently started to invest in gold. These are large institutions, they need large numbers of shares, so they need to invest in large gold companies. If this trend continues, the large gold companies suddenly have a lot more upside, even though they are large companies and you would therefore think there isn't a lot of upside any more. This makes Barrick, Wheaton, Newmont, etc. extra attractive (but only if more pension funds etc. will step into gold). Would you agree with me, or is this flawed reasoning? Greetings from Holland! - Rob
Until sentiment changes and those institutions decide not to invest in gold anymore. Who knows?
_Peter Schiff entered the chat_
Would love to see a video on the oilfield service companies and oil companies. Looks a bit like gold stocks in 2015...
depends on the price of oil going forward:-)
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. things are cyclical... you can look at other examples of times that are similar to today. Late 1960’s etc.. Peter Lynch is also a buyer...
Gold price more or less in line with money supply. But this has changed now. Infact moving opposite. What changed?
there is always sentiment!
When is Mr Buffet going to buy JNUG????
If it is for the purpose of storing value, I would rather have gold long term than a gold mining stock. Using gold as a hedge is one thing, having a gold mining stock for added volatility is counter intuitive in my opinion.
using gold mining stock will save you the fees of storing Gold ,also you got dividends .
@@businessman1060 You don't have to store gold. There's a lot of value in a small amount of space. Unless you're planning on buying millions of dollars worth.
Hey sven is it worth to invest in real estate in Slovenia?
Sven would answer: I don't know / Up to you / If it fits your portfolio
depends on the property!
@@Value-Investing Well i was thinking Ljubljana but the prices are around 3.5k to 5k per m2.. Should i waut for the market crash becouse people are saying this for the last 2 years that the prices will drop or will have to atleast..
I really appreciate your value based insight on the mining industry. I own Newmont and physical gold purely as insurance for inflation.
I was very disappointed to hear that Barrick lost out on the renewal of a mining lease in PNG (Papua New Guinea) earlier in the year, that in 2019 put out ~250,000 ounces of gold (which I think is about 10% by value of the PNG annual GDP). Does anyone have any news on this? The non-renewal of the lease is being challenged in the PNG supreme court (it will be a huge test of judicial independence), but even if Barrick's case fails, I suspect that this is a tactic from the Government. They awarded the lease to a local gold Company (in a seemingly non-transparent fashion) who have stated they are willing to negotiate with Barrick if they want to return to the mine (which is now closed). It could be just a re-negotiation of terms. In which case, the costs to extract per ounce are going up, but Barrick's access to the mining location is still possible. Of course, if they can't work it out, it would be a drag on their bottom line (albeit not a huge one).
Gold is risky now? Why? What has changed from a year ago to warrant a lower price? The way I see it, this is just the beginning and we still have a long way to go. Everything is happening the way gold bulls predicted it would, the CBs are printing currency and there's no end in sight, gold is steady, it's coiling and refuses to drop - looks very bullish to me. I see no change to the gold thesis, silver hasn't even reached OTH, the institutional investors are slowly starting to notice gold - its all good, still early
could be, could be!
You forgot to throw in there that this time institutional investment is coming in from Berkshire and Pension Funds and super low oil prices giving miners high margins.
Barrick is interesting, but not for a major position. Thanks for the insights!
Makes you wonder what Warren Buffet saw that made him take a massive Barrick position recently
@@alsteiner7602 he did take a position, but it was actually small compared to other investments they have. Or maybe I missed something.
Gold price DOES NOT directly affect stock price of Gold Mining companies. It's the profitability and stability of a company that affects the level of investor interest into their stock. Even if gold price skyrockets, if a company's fundamentals become weak due to whatever negative circumstances, the stock price will tank regardless of the increase of Gold price. Therefore, before purchasing shares in a Gold Mining company, you must perform due diligence
🐱👤 The goldminers value depend on the expected gold price in the next years. I epect a rising gold price -- thx to the Fed!
Correct, the leverage in the miners goes down with a rising gold price and the risk in the miners goes up at the end of the cycle where the miners spend too much money for buying new resources in the ground. Many people do not understand this.
Sven has his own mine--- nice 👍
Currently I "like" Fortuna Silver Mines, Kirkland Lake Gold (for me a 10-bagger!) and some Australian Miners. But in general I hate the miners! They are going down so quick and if they are in a bear market they go down by 80% and more.
.
I would love to see some analysis of smaller mining companies, such as GCM or somewhere around that size. :)
i second that
Love to hear your opnion on GCM Sven....trading at very low valuation for a 220k ounce producer....making around 150 million cash....check out the market cap...just insane...yeah Colombia....is really very ok country ...US is helping them with the war on drugs , so this shouldn’t be a big issue
Bravo
Hvala Marine!
With current price at 1770, at least gold miners should generate good free cash flow and div. Gold miner stock at current gild price still looks a good bet from dividends. Ofcourse if gold price rises then great. Or am i missing something.
with all so into crypto, perhaps time to look again at gold!
@@Value-Investing yes that is so. Barrick at sub 20 per share. In aug 2016 gold at 1300 and share at 19.80. this looks definitely as a buy. What do you think? Barrick sold some south american mines, got its debt down. Copper can compensate. Thoughts?
Sold a huge crypto chunk and will put it in GOLD or GLEN.
smart
@@Value-Investing Thanks. If you had to pick - what would be your choice? I suppose GOLD?
Sven for next one please do Taylor Wimpey and UK homebuilders stocks.
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Thanks Sven! Very helpful.
Gold price correlates with the inverse of real 10 year treasury yield ... we should all know this by now.
Correlations in economics hold until they dont.
Hello, can you make à vidéo about First mining gold, Thanks for all.
It would have been nice to buy Kirkland lake for $19.55. 1:24
hehe
After the recent run up, I am still waiting and hoping for gold miners to pullback about 20-30%, then buy the dip.
Please do a video on Greatland Gold
Gold, the commodity, is really a bizarre thing. It's hoarded by both the general public and governments worldwide. I haven't looked at it recently, but I researched it years ago while working on my graduate degrees. The part that is traded on the market openly
thanks for sharing
I waited this video for so long! Thanks Sven! I agree no one should be 100% in gold, but gold miners are useful in a portfolio perspective because they paid a divident when other companies face difficulties. This is why Warren Buffet is buying.
Lots of companies pay dividends, this has little to do with why gold is a good investment
This stock has CAGR of -0,41% including dividends since inception in 1996... Not something to buy-and-hold forever I think.
that is gold stocks :-)
Considering you 'started the channel on gold miners, you seem to have dropped the ball here. After missing the huge upside in gold miners and gold your bearish because you feel you missed out? Maybe its better to take some advice from someone who is actually profiting from the trade. Everything is driven by 'sentiment' the 'sentiment for gold is driven by the fact that you have a negative return on bonds, so why not allocate a small amount to gold? Gold is primarily driven by interest rates and interest rates have been trading downwards for decades. Now rates are at zero it would be no surprise to see gold hit an all time high (in real terms). Could it go to 1500 first? Sure. It could, but what exactly is going to reverse sentiment towards treasuries and gold so swiftly and for how long? While the chances of an interest rate hike in the next few years is very small the risk benefit of the gold price going much higher is clearly favored. Barrick is a quality company and a great buy with a horizon of three years. Even Berkshire bought it. Personally I buy junior mining companies for the explosive upside potential which more than offsets the risks of loss in a small portion of the portfolio.
I didn't miss out on anything :-) Enjoy life!
At $20 now - looks tasty...
need to make a new analysis
I am making some money trading options with Barrick Gold
Accomulating Barrick? I made some research on micro cap value gold stocks and I found Caledonia mining! Solid balance sheet, p/e ratio 9 and dividend of 1.86 % . Anybody is following this company too?
@@governmentofficial_23 thanks I am accumulating my paychecks on Barrick and Caledonia. Cheers from Italy .
Is not quoted in us dollars Centamin right ?
Only about 10% of the world supply is traded regularly; most of it is overwhelmingly stored in government vaults. This has always been an X factor: what are the government's intentions?
you never know...
Thank you
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Yup sold my gold stocks wished had bought a litte bit more.
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Great analysis Sven! Would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the risk reward perspective of investing in silver right now, especially given that the silver to gold ratio is still trading around it’s long term average of 70. Silver’s demand is also expected to go up due to its role in renewable applications. If Biden wins the election, then a promised $2T clean energy plan also provides a better investment thesis than gold!
you said it:-) I don't see silver beyond $10 on industrial demand, the rest is from silver bugs, thus risky.
Sven picked gold miners before Buffett 😮
more bullish on copper and zinc with china infrastructure stimulus (EU and US coming in the future)... Teck resources would be interesting as a miner
I'm buying value in mining. Looking at $KRR.to, Australian producer at a run rate of 100k/ year about to update resources from theire large land package. I suspect they raise guidance for 2021. I believe their AISC will be $1000 in Q4.
Precious metals and Bitcoin are a store of wealth against government printing.
I'd like to see more on Russian gold miners.
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60 Dollars down today
I love be gooooolllddddd
Mike Maloney slowly shakes his head in disappointment.
T H A N K Y O U ! : D