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Why It's So Hard To Succeed - The Survivorship Bias (animated)
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- Опубліковано 11 жов 2018
- The survivorship bias is the logical error, concentrating on the people who made it or "survived" and overlooking those who did not.
There's a common misconception floating around the internet: You should focus on the successful if you wish to become successful yourself.
You have probably seen these types of articles before.
Like, "5 surprising habits all successful people have". Or, "4 things ultra successful people do differently". The logic is simple: if it helped them get success, it should help you as well, right?
Well not quite. When you factor in the survivorship bias, you notice that we're only focusing on the people that made it, aka survivors.
We're forgetting all the men and women, that have been applying those "5 surprising habits of the successful people", but are not successful.
So while their advice might work for some, it has to be noted that it won't work for everyone.
We don't even consider that there are probably other elements at play here, one for example: pure luck. Like being at the right place at the right time or having connections with key people. Those are just some factors that are often disregarded.
Images © Piers Baker www.svgdoodlewhiteboard.com
#success #cognitivebias
We all know somebody whose overnight success took ten years.
Underrated comment
They all think successful people tried one time and got successful. They also failed many times but they just didnt label themselves as failures and stopped.
I remember seeing Lizzo perform in 2011. There were 5 of us there to see her.
Everyone thinks she made it big overnight.
@@IsabellaFrank2 idk if u did that on purpose...but 😭😭
A quippy book of maxims said it’s usually at least 5 years
For me, this is a relief, rather than discouraging. I took the point of this video as "Don't be so hard on yourself. It's harder than it looks, and it's not always about your ability." The most common way we punish ourselves is by comparing ourselves to celebrities and rich people, aka some of the very few people in the entire world who "have it all", and we're taught to feel inadequate unless we have their measure of "success".
Just find a way to do what you're passionate about, and don't worry about "success". It's a subjective idea anyway.
I really disagree with just about all of this. That's not really the point of the video. And the most common ways we punish ourselves is by not living up to our potential. I'd argue that most people have the POTENTIAL to be wildly successful, but that potential either goes untapped in them (they choose not to work as hard as they could), or they're wildly inefficient (they spin their wheels and pursue their goals in ways that are counterproductive). Rather than looking at rare achievers as having some unusual gift, I think there's an argument to be made that they're simply operating at both maximum levels of effort and maximum levels of efficiency. And people feel inadequate not because they haven't achieved some extremely rare level of achievement accomplished by others, but because they know they can do more (probably a HELL of a lot more, in most cases) than what they're doing.
I suppose if this was the point of this video AND Someone who is very harsh on themselves watches it and stops punishing themselves then I see the value in this👍
@@artistryartistry7239 I wish a successful millionaire or industry professional would just come out and tell the truth which is not everyone who is born into this world will be successful, have lady luck on thier sides, be famous, or be extremely wealthy in this life.
The key idea of success being subjective. Not everyone will make 6 figures, be millionaires; some people are content with the simple little things in life and are genuinely happier that people who are making more money.
@@artistryartistry7239 How does this apply to a working class person working 14 hours/6 days a week? Do they just need to work harder to become rich?
In this day and age, we are constantly bombarded with messages saying that you should "live your dream" "you are unique and special" "you can reach any goal" "success is waiting for you" .... the list goes on and on and on. The reality is: 99.9% of people are average at best. Whatever you regard as success in life comes only through hard work. You're better off thinking about yourself as "average Joe" ,work hard, and most importantly... be happy with what you already have.
99.9% of people are average? Ehhh thats not how averages work bud
Success ain't waiting for me because success is NOT a person a beautiful girlfriend
@@scaldygains6572 at a certain skill set. Without any prior training
2:10 It's like how J.K. Rowling secretly published The Cuckoo's Call under another name, and the book died from unpopularity; later on it was revealed she wrote it, and people bought it like crazy. Your book's quality has nothing to do with sales, it's your popularity and it's all about getting your first book through the door and making a name/branding for yourself.
But is Harry Potter the first book she wrote get published?
@@FeelFree3 After being rejected like ten times, yeah.
Hemingway was not popular when he wrote a best-selling people. What you are saying is not true. The young generation goes with popularity so that is why that happened with J K. stop using that one example as a fact.
On Harry Potter: aside from the story itself, one can’t ignore that Rowling happened to have exactly the right idea at exactly the right time. Roald Dahl had been dead for nearly a decade and people were hungry for easy to read children’s fantasy, there wasn’t much Internet at the time so people had to actually buy the physical books if they wanted to read them, the themes of the constant threat of death, the fear of terrorism, and questioning the media and the government tied in perfectly with the post-9/11 psyche, and the first two films came out in the midst of the Lord of the Rings craze and could capitalise on them as a child-friendly alternative. Basically, there are all sorts of extrinsic factors that helped make the series so huge that just don’t apply anymore. If she had published it now, it probably would have still been successful but nothing like the behemoth we know.
If you go into writing, it should be because you love to tell stories, you should never go into writing expecting to write a bestseller, let alone an international phenomenon, because the odds are long no matter how hard you work.
It’s may not always be COMPLETELY about luck, but in EVERY success story, luck always play a VERY SIGNIFICANT role!
This is depressing, though its a true concept. Trying to take the best from it.
If you have a growth mindset, I think you can. Better than yesterday(that in itself is success), one step at a time, little steps.
We are brainwashed about sucess ask yourself honestly what u want, and people give lot of attention to sucessful people but when they fail no one cares, do think about it
@@024_soumeemukherjee2 easier said than done which is something I struggled with growth mindset as an adult with autism. I did all I could to stay positive while it hurts hard
Either bend to the truth or live a lie- Miyamoto Musashi.
It's not thay depressing. It's Just realistic
I would like to introduce Exhibit A. Vincent Van Gogh. One of the most acclaimed artists of modern times and recognised for his genius by his artistic peers and admirers. Yet he was technically a failure in his lifetime, sold only one painting and died penniless. Today, we buy prints of his paintings, produced en masse, and his works are instantly recognisable all over the world. So you you have to wonder what defines success? He had the talent when he was alive. People only became interested in his paintings when they began selling for millions. So what are people really being drawn to here? Talent or the idea of someone acquiring vast amounts of wealth? Why do so many people define success in terms of money (Van Gogh sold only one painting) rather than achievement (Van Gogh produced many incredible pieces of art during his lifetime)?
love this
Van gogh started being recognized before his death
@@salvatoremaiorino1510 I would go further than that and say that his talent was always recognised by his peers (other artists of his time) and admirers, which I mentioned in my original comment. But the fact remains that he was financially supported by his brother throughout his life, sold only one painting during his lifetime, and died penniless. There's a tendency to measure success in terms of wealth, and it's this perception that I was questioning.
@@AR-vu4hr yes maybe ife he had the "wealth" success he would have still committed suicide who knows
He was also mentally unstable. Very successful indeed
I find this motivating actually, most people are becoming impatient due to their unrealistic expectations (also social media). Learning that this is the natural way of things makes you not quit just to see where it can truly go.
I wouldn’t be biased to say it can’t be a quick and rapid success. Just be as is. And unemotional
And we can't forget about that "false sense of self-entitlement" that so many people seem to have these days. Idk if it's just me but I've been noticing it more & more as the days go by 😔🤦🏽♀️🙁
@@KRIS-sh8wp The “I breath therefore I deserve money”. Not applicable to everyone, but there are some wild takes out there.
Every success in my life had people telling reasons why I could not do it, or/and I was not doing it "right" ? Every success in my life was built on set backs and failures, but yet here I am....content and successful....And even successful, people still say, " No not like that ", but I don't listen.
"If you find something you love doing and stick to it, while constantly improving, then that will ultimately lead you to the success you seek."
Only if it pays well, and only if you improve faster than you age.
Not true, you can work on improving your craft while working a part or full time job. That's how most do it. Also I doubt that anybody improves slower than they age. If anybody applies themselves to almost any pursuit, improvement is rapid, especially during the first year or two, then plateaus, at which point most can make an informed judgment as to whether it's worth the time and effort to continue. And there are many cases of people who have started late and have achieved great success, though as the video states maybe those are the one's that we hear about.
@@whodidit99 - They are right, some things, like building software will cost you a ton of time to build if you are working in a job that has nothing to do with software hence Bill Gates and Jobs dropping out. Sometimes or when you make time, you have to put all your focus on the things you are passionate about. .
@Joseph Marton I Loved your "Cup o' Pizza"!
@Joseph Marton well yeah, because people generally will care more about good ideas than stupid ones. no offense to your cup of pizza, of course...
i promise you if youre good at what you do then people will WANT to pay you. "only if you improve faster than you age" WTF does that even mean lol i dont think youve actually tried mastering anything. Youre gonna get as good as the time you put into something, youre gonna age at the same rate, mastery takes a lifetime to accomplish theres no timer on it lol
in the army, i heard a great saying " you can learn as much from a BAD leader as you can a GOOD one",
and that always stuck with me, avoid what the BAD leaders did and FOLLOW the GOOD ones advice. awesome video! I love when people hit you with truth bombs, nice job
This is why I hate motivational coaches with a burning passion. They make shit up about people who didn't make it big, that somehow they just didn't try enough, or lacked ambition, or whatever.
An interesting thing is that while most successful people are also delusional to this and they appear to gloat that their ability is somewhat superhuman, when in reality they may had a rich mommy or random luck, some successful people are IGNORED when they try to tell you it's not easy at all but people are often not interested in hearing how hard it is because they want it easy.
It all depends on your definition of success. We can't all be steve jobs but we can make things better.
They also had the resources, connections, and support network to help them grow. We don't all have that, either.
KingRandor82 just search on “obstacle is the way”. Ryan has a book based on Stoicism. It is in my view the most profound and down to earth philosophy that ever exlsted.
Well said. Thank you.
I've always thought about this. It's frustrating how many successful people discredit how big circumstances, & support(in some cases genetics too) along the way play a role in "their success" I'm not discouraged tho I realize I do have luck and some favorable circumstances on my side because on the flip side I believe a lot of failures didn't really utilize certain things in their favor. Work smarter not harder guys
Living
It
Feels
Enough
Consider yourself a success if:
1. You always face a rejection in job interviews
2. Have to cope with a serious and unexpected deterioration in your looks
3. Are at a complete standstill career wise plus financially and are actually regressing with both
4. Have health issues you never thought would affect you
5. Have let yourself and many others down with promises that you couldn't keep mainly for reasons out of your control or because of poor decisions you made
If you go through all this crap and you still have the will to push on YOU ARE ALREADY A SUCCESS!
Here’s a starkly obvious yet truly priceless pearl of wisdom for you...
In that video presentation, how do you quantify the people who *supposedly failed* to achieve their desired goal or ambition? Think about it... At what point can we say that somebody has failed at something? Well, for the majority... it’s that they came to the point where they felt that they weren’t getting anywhere, or it was taking too long, or the effort wasn’t worth it... In other words: THEY GAVE UP! It’s not that they actually failed... THEY DECIDED that they weren’t going to make it... that they were a failure, and they gave up trying...
For most people, FAILURE is a self fulfilling prophecy. Of course - you have to have REALISTIC aspirations, based on some innate and valued talent that you possess, or the possibility of your acquiring the skills or expertise that you need to compete in your chosen field... but IF YOU DO HAVE THOSE THINGS and YOU REMAIN DETERMINED TO SUCCEED, then your chances of succeeding are multiplied exponentially, because you will have defeated the greatest barrier to your success, which is: YOUR OWN SELF DOUBT.
Leaving aside the success stories that come about through an abundance of sheer luck, the majority of achievers in life have one thing in common that sets them apart from most of us: THEY BELIEVE IN THEMSELVES to the point that:
1) Rejection doesn’t phase them
2) Obstacles are treated as mere challenges to be overcome, and
3) They don’t allow anything to distract them or deflect them from their chosen goal...
They are SINGLE MINDED and SELF-MOTIVATED and they treat discouragement and defeatism as deceitful voices that they won’t listen to...
One of the most encouraging examples of such a positive outlook I know of, was a salesman who had to make telephone appointments every day in order to meet prospective clients who might buy his company’s products. This salesman knew that he was pretty good at selling, but the hard part was to secure the appointment in the first place, as cold calling customers can result in very rude and offensive responses and people slamming the phone down with a curt, “I’m not fu**ing interested.” The endless negativity of so much rejection is a major cause of people quitting telephone sales work, even though the best sales people can earn very spectacular incomes in the right field...
So how did this particularly driven individual deal with the rejection? Well, his approach was both novel and highly impressive at the time (though it’s been copied since and has become a standard practice in some sales offices...) What he did was to make a diligent record of how many calls he made, how many of those calls secured an appointment, and how many of those appointments resulted in a sale. By doing so, he he worked out an average of how many calls he’d have to make in a day in order to secure each appointment, and how many appointments he’d have to attend in order to secure each sale. With those figures and his own sales targets firmly set in his diary, he started off every morning with the specific intention of making the number of calls that he’d have to make to earn his intended salary goal. So... if he had to make an average of 15 calls to secure one appointment, he brushed off all of the curt responses and rude replies and merely treated them the same way a track athlete views the barriers that are lined up ahead of him in his running lane... they are just hurdles to be vaulted on the way to the finish line that he can see in the distance and has fixed his sights on. This guy was so motivated that no matter how negative each call was, he would put down the receiver, tick that call off and often shout, “Yes!” before dialling the number for his next call. Some of his colleagues thought that his enthusiasm came from securing appointments from those negative calls... No! He was just excited because each negative call brought him one phone call closer to his 15 call batting average that would secure his next sales appointment! 😂 That Guy did not even know the meaning of the word discouragement, let alone failure! And he went on to achieve a very lucrative, successful, and richly deserved sales career.
That SUCCESS FOCUSED MENTALITY, MOTIVATION, and SELF-BELIEF are absolutely central to the careers of people whom we tend to call WINNERS. Anyone who has ever run a street Marathon - especially for charity - will know that no amount of good intentions and wishful thinking will get you across the finish line once your mind tells you that you can’t run any longer. Our bodies can almost always keep going far longer than our motivation can... But once OUR MIND declares that it’s all too difficult, too arduous, or too monotonous... or it says, “I can’t do this any more” - the body dutifully obeys the mind’s prompting and gives up too...
You can’t complete a Marathon if you give up before crossing the finish line. Similarly, you can’t succeed in ANY endeavour, if you give up before you’ve achieved it! Think about it! That simple piece of self-evident logic applies as much to that half-finished DIY project that you’ve left languishing for ages, as it does to your self-declared (LIFELONG GOAL?)🤔 that you’re thinking of giving up on *before your life is over...* 🤷🏻♂️
So... What’s the best way to ensure that you achieve what you have a realistic chance of achieving in life? Simple... DON’T GIVE UP until you’ve achieved it!!! 🥇👏😊 🖖😎
Omg so long
@@prithvishetty6938 OMG. Such a short attention span.....
@@andymerrett Hi Andy. Yes, I could have written that more succinctly. But I didn’t sit down & plan what I wrote. I just happened upon this video when I did & decided - on the spur of the moment - to try to ENCOURAGE people who want to succeed in whatever endeavour in life they might be struggling with, to NOT GIVE UP but instead, to BELIEVE in themselves & PERSEVERE until they succeed. So I gave them the benefit of straightforward examples & lessons in life that I’ve encountered or personally experienced, that have benefitted or encouraged ME in the process. And as of this moment, 11 people have upvoted that post, suggesting that they found it of benefit to themselves (despite its lack of succinctness & being so “overinflated” apparently…..)
But please… Don’t - on any account - allow that to put a dampener on YOUR self-appointed mission in life to DISCOURAGE the well intentioned efforts of others, by posting snarky, supercilious replies in the comments section of a Video dedicated to helping people to believe in themselves & succeed … the sheer irony of which is simply breathtaking….. 🤦🏻♂️
In the things were I have been successful myself I had seen very clearly that most people fail because they are were not committed enough to the hard work and consistency that are required for improving.
What about those who do work really hard but no result? I don't have limiteless energy to keep going and have a limit
@@christiansnaturestudio6599 people know when to take a break in order to still go at a sufficient rate at their dreams.
why is everyone so demotivated by this?? I lowkey wanna look into people’s success stories deeper and it encourages me to learn the truth to better myself in the future. If I wanna become successful in a specific career i’m now going to look into the failed stories and see what i can learn from them and try to incorporate that into my own travel to success. and if I do not succeed i now know to try and help others into finding their own path in a more logical and rational way
I'm like you bro but then I got fired from sales job a few times because I can't keep up with the quotas pace even though I helped many clients along the way.
I want money so I don't become homeless and forever sad
Though initially it sounds like a discouraging video.... But this is kind of cautionary message..... So that, we can be alert and take rational and logical decisions... Because at times, our strengths may vary from successful people....
It’s hard to succeed because we are conditioned to think that we cannot be like the wealthy. But to be conditioned in a way means to be learned a belief. If we can learn then we can learn to unlearn.
Unlearning false beliefs and understanding how smart, capable, and great we are is when we realize we have infinite potential.
The world is ours, we just need to believe in ourselves.
Beautifully said my friend
Noticed you have a video talking about the same thing. I subscribed!
@@xXNaissurXx thank you!
@@onemeditationYT so happy to hear it helped! Thank you 🙏
Yeah... this wasn't really the takeaway of the video, but, alright...
From a British perspective, a lot of the "Luck" in survivorship bias is really "Class", namely the informal advantages accruing to attending the right school, knowing the right people, talking a certain way, and so on. Scratch the surface of successful actors, business people, pop stars and so on, and very few come from a genuine working class background.
Very well explained! Thank you!
I have two teenagers that I'm try to drill in their heads about the reality of life. I always loved the old saying " don't quit your day job". Years ago a friend of mine got certified as a barber after finishing highschool. He apprenticed under an old school Mexican barber in an old run down side of Houston for 3 years until he opened his own old school traditional Mexican barbershop, nothing fancy just a plain old school barbershop. He hired an old barber and a couple of ex prison barbers. Then the movie Barbershop with Ice Cube comes out and shortly after everyone is going to barbers college and opening up fancy shops all over town. No worries he stayed the course and he and his employees continue to do what they do. They lost a few a clients for a while but gained them all back shortly afterwards. Many of the barbershops that had opened failed after a few years if not within the year. I asked him one day about all the fancy barbershops that sprung up after these kids saw the movie and if they affected his business in a negative way. He said " No, unlike them many of the barbershops that closed I knew the reality of the business and of the job itself, I have been doing this for a living for many years. These young ones came into the job because of the inspiration they got from a movie with and ex rapper and believed the fantasy without understanding the reality. Being a barber and running a Barbershop is hard work and only those of that were well established and understand the reality were the ones that survived".
Man oh man I'm glad I listened till the end cuz I was like "Who cares about the odds! Do what you are passionate, but remember success only comes after much failure, but you just need to keep learning!" Then you came with a more positive note at the end... but I wonder... how many people got discouraged from another person saying they won't statistically make it then stopped the video before it went positive. Yes, maybe statistically they would not have made it anyway because they quite even when a video tells them bad news let alone the real world. I wonder if it would have changed if you started out with the positive first. I'm just being a lil mushy saying everyone deserves a chance and a lil pep talk. I like your stuff though. I subscribed.
I think you have earned a participation award.
I had no idea that so many DJ's were dead and dying.
@Joseph Marton Maybe it's punishment for inventing dubstep.
This can discourage anyone. I was left with the question: then why even try? Instead, the Survivorship bias is “the notion whereby people over-focus on the ‘survived’ outcomes of a process and use those outcomes as basis to improve it, thereby failing to understand that you learn more from the invisible, ‘dead’ parts that didn’t make it.” So basically, learn why the others did not make it, then solve and improve accordingly. Wow, how different it is when you have the right information.
people learnt from failures not succes. if you successfully build a something, will you keep fixing it??
for me,if i do music its not to be successful its just for the passion of it.if i end up being successful then thats even cooler but my first goal is not to be famous its to have a much smaller success like hitting 500 likes on a song
That's why I'm depressed and i hate being single and alone with the pain I'm going through after all my hard work goes to waste
I like that you discussed this, but putting "you will never succeed", in the thumbnail is kinda discouraging :( .
There's still that one who made it, be the one
We all can't be winners
@@jabalimohamed1983 Speak for yourself, thanks
@@tomasverda i never spoke for you what's wrong with you? I gave my opinion that's all
@@jabalimohamed1983 How is saying "WE" not speaking for others(me in this case), just say "I can't be a winner", but don't bring others down.
great video! I didnt know there is actual term for what I had in mind. People like to look for some hidden secret to become successful and preferably it should be an easy one like "drop out of college"
This video makes me think of the actor Christopher Lee - hugely successful across a life-long career.
In an interview, he described how young people would come to him and ask for advice on becoming an actor. His reply: "Don't do it," for the simple reason that, for every successful actor, there are hundreds who get nowhere, because they do not have the luck, the ability and the imagination (interesting, that one) to successfully play their parts.
He’s 100% right.
Love it!!! I’m struggling to make people understand it. I’d also like to find movies that talk about “failures” and not only about the easy success, an American dream, like “Little miss Sunshine”.
I guess success is in the eye of the beholder in their job occupation. I have lived through things the guy standing next to me didn't. I guess I am a success.
This is such a helpful concept to be aware of. Great video.
Not the same thing, but this reminds me of something very similar I encountered in Robert Cialdini's Pre-Suasion, called "the Focusing Illusion." It comes from Daniel Kahneman, who summarized the Focusing Illusion in the title of the essay he wrote that explains what it is, "Nothing in life is as important as you think it is WHILE you are thinking about it." He wrote the essay (available here: www.edge.org/response-detail/11984 ) in response to a question someone asked him about the single scientific concept that, "if appreciated properly, would improve everyone's understanding of the world."
Thanks for the clarity your videos bring!
Reference:
Cialdini, R. (2016). Pre-suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade. New York: Simon & Schuster (pp. 33).
Although I agree, the article makes statements that do not have backing support.
Will Frazier thank you for this!
SUCCESS = TIME + IMPROVING + LUCK. All three of these factors are in play in EVERYTHING we do, it is the basis of our very existence.
This video is very under rated
economists know this concept since WW2: only the general public doesn't know it
It is over rated.
Bro it's copied line by line from the art of thinking clearly by Rolf dobelli
It mostly happens because of the lack of marketing skills and networking skills. There's also the lack of innovation.
Excellent point
True point! Also in addition to the fact that way too many people try to follow the same patterns of so called "success" stories, one example being the school dropout to successful (insert occupation here), or youtuber to successful celebrity etc.
@@inyeekaribi4913 You're right! Another one is that most influential men say they had problems with their dad when they were young and the successful women say they were sexually abused. But anyways, I've seen books that became successful but the design of the book cover, by the title of the book, and that just this was enough for people to give it word of mouth marketing. Examples like the books: 'Thug Kitchen' or 'Love yourself like your life depends on it'
And this is why I studied marketing, instead of something productive. :D
@@quazar5017 Yeah, there are many stories of people creating crappy products and other highly valuable products but because of the marketing skills and courage to throw the product to the market even though it's incomplete, they make massive sells. I have found very valuable books elsewhere that are in Amazon that have zero ratings and no comments at all for years. When I search on this platform I found no videos or one or two videos based on the books, it's no wonder they aren't successful.
The difference between successful and unsuccessful people is Determination and Persistent. If you try something and failed first, second, the third time and you stop you are a failure, but if you persist and learn from your mistake eventually you will find luck or success. I see that happen with my uncle his 4 business failed but the 5th one makes him successful and millionaire, that's one advice he gives as I venture to be an entrepreneur ”Luck finds the persistent and determined people”
Watch the sad strange story of laz Rojas on vice tv. The video is on UA-cam. This guy with zero talent was constantly supported by his parents on his pipedream of being a great writer actor and animator. All his teachers in high school said he had NO talent. He moved to LA and peddled his crap and headshots to every possible agent. Again he was told he had no talent. Now in his 50’s he lives in a hotel room with his narcissistic mother. This guy is very intelligent but ignored any advice in pursuit of his dreams.
thankyou for building and always upgrading this channel. It's helpful.
You’ve got to be able to define success in your own terms. Everyone has a different definition of success. Don’t let anyone define it for you.
Totally agree!
It's not always hard to succeed, it's hard to stay determined.
Failure is part of life but you shouldn’t give up of chasing success in life is by doing something you love and keep doing it until you became successful
This video is exactly why your video content is superior to many other UA-camrs'. Keep up the good work!
Life is effort and i'll stop when i die :)
I appreciate you bringing this to our attention in such a understandable way. I see a lot of people who want to pursue their passion, which I think is a good thing, but doing so in such a way that they’re taking on a huge amount of risk. Or putting their family’s financial security at risk. Better, in my view, to find a way to keep the risk manageable while pursuing your dream. In practical terms, this often means pursuing your dream on a part time basis, and continuing to work at a “normal” job until you reach a certain level of success.
Logically there is even less of a chance of that succeeding, since you're competing with people who are working on their dreams full time.
@@artistryartistry7239 Yes.........very correct...........Jeff Bezos .......was asked by his Mom not to leave job & Work part time on Amazon(his new startup)..................he did not listen to his mom...........he left his job ......survived only on his savings..........worked full time on Making AMAZON.....................REST IS HISTORY.............but but.................he was very, very............calculating.......
Yeah just search "follow your passion" and you got thousands of video telling you their amazing story. Chances are there are millions more struggle to make ends meet.
On the other hand, however, understanding this survival bias can allow you to make practical decision based on reasonable expectations. Now, before quitting my 9-6 office job, now I am preparing for the worse and saving as much as possible, as I aware I may not get even a quarter as much as my current salary from following my passion in art. But I won't be too frustrated either because I am preparing and expecting the worse. So it is a very helpful advices from this video. Take it and earn it.
..This vid should be titled : 'How to Fail without Even Trying' .
Literally
It's also important to define what "making it" or success is. True, we must also factor in the elements that were experienced by the so called failures, and perhaps we can learn why they failed. But we must also remember that just like Mike in our video, his definition of success as a DJ was defined by the those in the spotlight.
Define your aims and outcomes, be reasonable in your capabilities and what you are truly able to achieve, and consider how long it actually takes to see significant success in your chosen field.
Also, just as the media does not highlight the failures (unless to ridicule them for press coverage), it also never shows you the true cost of success, only the overnight successes, which in fact all worked very hard for that one moment of recognition...
Thanks for this video. I like to think about this concept, but I think lots of things are not considered. For instance, lots of people say they want to be successful at something so we put them in the bucket of “aspiring actor/musician/unconventional career here.”
Notice I put unconventional career? There is failure rate in any career! What makes a career unconventional. One word: commission. You are paid based on your results. We only hear about top dog musicians/actors, but there are also plenty of people making decent money in these jobs not as popular. The spectrum is wide. I’ve had way to much time on my hands in the past and have seen this scouring the Internet. You speak of DJs/musicians. Let’s look at Avicii who I just watched the documentary for. He worked 100s of hours and days total on his craft. Most successful musicians do. A VERY large chunk of these people in the bucket don’t treat their dream like they would they a “real” job. Not saying they all don’t, but this is a first step. Second, they don’t realize all that matters is results. I’ve noticed something about the less popular musicians online/not popular at all: their music sucks or is average. There is ABSOLUTELY a reason Avicii “succeeded” (remember success has varying forms. Avicii was 110% success) besides his time put in. His RESULTS. He made some very interesting and different music. And ok, yes music is tastes. But once you listen to enough true garbage you do notice a difference. There is something unique about every VERY successful singer/rapper. Scout the internet/unknown talk shows. Listen to these guys music. They SUCK. It feels different. I'm not a top dog record producer but they are known to have this smell down for whats a hit and what isn't. It's tough to make the top hits (obviously) but that's the insanely hard skill now, isn't it? Point is, it's not luck fully. I can see the reasons these unknowns are failing in this regard, a result of not taking it seriously enough, or not being different enough.
You can control this, there is almost no excuse these days with all DAWs you have access to on a computer/internet. Music tutorials, learn how to play piano online, new synths, learn synths, etc. In the olden days, you needed a record label and studio time. That I agree was more luck based.
You could apply this to business/any result job. The internet has given more opportunity than ever.
Like I said, I’m definitely not saying you aren’t making a good case. This bias should be considered. But there’s also a lot of other factors involved like the 2 reasons I mentioned.
You can overcome it if you work hard (reason 1) and smart (reason 2).
The reality is a ton of those people are idiots/not serious enough who would rather sleep in, post snapchat stories, or party. I used to screw around on this video app talking to random strangers on my phone. Know how many "rappers" I met on there? A ton. Know how many just had a snapchat/youtube (with poorly made videos - which you can also control if you save up to film on something other than an iphone - and learn all that stuff or hire people) with no real brand? All. Know how many opened a DAW to work on their music and develop a unique sound? None. Says a lot. Like I said, apply it anywhere.
What is this genetic or "luck" too? Sure lmao.
hmm well said
Very well said. Thanks for your insight.
By definition for there to be a success there has to be a failure. It's true hard work, uniqueness, and a new approach are important but these are just some of the many factors. As said in the video luck, connections and timing are important factors as well.
Also, as said in the video success shouldn't be the goal. I mean look at Avicci, his success might of made him millions but it also increased his stress and mental health problems.
William Funes yeah I covered all that. Bottom line is you can sit on your hands in the corner and give up before you start or work like hell (What I can tell you most people don’t do) and get lucky. If you live in the US it’s possible.
And success to me has always been defined as being able to do what you want to do. So you don’t have to be #1 and rich. Lots of smaller people in these types of fields you never heard of thanks to the internet and other technology.
The ending is golden. Thank you so much.
Love your videos...your channel is so different from other cliche self-help channels
Awesome! You do great job! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👍🏻
Having connections with Key people seems to be a common factor as far as I can see..... think about it..... it's like they say - "It's not what you know but WHO you know" therefore spend 25% on your talents and 75% cultivating connections in that field.
This was a MASSIVE eye opener,
only problem now is finding people who never succeeded or hasn't succeeded yet to talk to.
You'll be hard pressed to find articles on the internet about them, only "types of people who never succeed,"
which isn't very helpful at this point.
It is so well explain , i couldn't keep myself from thinking during the whole video. "The survivor bias " I'll keep that in mind.
Best advice ever. Learnt how wrong does some people pursue a passion just by seeing the successful people. It is the process that should make you like and choose as a passion and not the successful people.
4:08 "being in the right place at the right time."
Stanley Yelants IV: ight imma head out
This video is for all people who say that billionaires are so successful because they just work harder than everyone else.
You either get rich or die trying, even if you’ve been trying for 70 years.
Some are successful because they work hard and some are successful without trying. Luck plays a role in terms of opportunities and connections.
Perhaps the lesson is: Success is the process of work well done. Enjoying that process. The pursuit of a worthy goal.
I think people praising your success and the effect of large quantities of money are extremely relative values. That kind of success seems to have hidden price tags and no guarantee of happiness.
The rich have said that there is never "enough" money. People always want more no matter how much they have. Better to be happy with what you have, no matter how much or little.
Hardship is part of life. no shame in that. Celebrate the little victories while in the process. Bring joy to the table.
Excellent video. The same applies to newspaper titles and youtube videos "he/she healed his/her illness with brainpower or because he/she is strong, a fighter...blablabla"....which implies that all the others 99,9% who died or did not cure their illness (and are not on youtube) are not strong, did not fight, do not have brainpower and did not want to cure themselves.
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Yes: definitely people overrate people with tremendous luck or connections or a rich mommy, but at the same time I think they DO fail to do some of the basic things most successful people do because even if they are simple: they might be scary because it's convenient to do what we know or what we're peer pressured to do.
Thanks for the info. I'm going to quit my job and live in a box by the beach since I'll never amount to anything in life...
Like that's easier to do...!
If you can successfully (thrive and be happy) live in a box by the beach you are capable of many more things.
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Read "The Slight Edge" by Jeff Olson, it will change your mind.
Interesting
Luck is not fixed or random. You will improve your chance of becoming "Lucky" the more you work to promote yourself.
Good advice, highlights the reality and puts things in perspective.
In other words, "don't try, kids. Tryin' only leads to great disappointment."
Nope, he’s saying try but don’t have any expectations.
Don't try because it's impossible got it. Sound words to live by, i'm very motivated right now thank you for your enthralling wisdom.
Aren’t there enough people already around who keep telling you that you can’t make it? Survivorship bias is true. But the concept of self-fulfilling prophesy is also true. If you and others around you believe in what you do then there are higher chances that you will succeed.
You missed out, ‘It’s not what you know, it’s who you know!’. ‘Closed shops’, and favouritism play a big part in success. A lot of people have had a ‘leg up’, to get where they are.
Really cool channel, keep up the great work!
Man... I like all of your videos. Very very helpful.
Great video! We missed you!
Thanks! Was busy with some real life stuff :)
EXACTLY, I mean he's not wrong about the video but, we gotta take our chances right! We don't know the future, all we have is a vision and hope, and he wants us to consider the "survivorship bias", I PERSONALLY THINK THE SURVIVORSHIP BIAS is in every sector (journalism, writing,YouTubing, Instagram, you name it), THAT DOESN'T MEAN IF MILLIONS HAD FAILED, EVERYONE ELSE YOU GIVE UP IN EVERYTHING.
Thank you. I've failed at many many things, and have given up on a lot because of this bias. I think I'm going to try again, but this time learn from everyone, not just idiot art professors who think "abstract is meaningless and easy".
I understand what you mean, but I think differently. I think, if you want something hard enough and your willing to do whatever is takes, you'll be able to get there. Your talking about the factor 'luck'. I don't think there's such a thing as luck in this case. I think, people who meet the right people are sharing a lot more where they want to end up and people tend to think along and they'll say 'oh, my friend is a (publisher, manager in the music industry, actor, whatever). Networking will get you places. And yes, sometimes you get there really soon, you could call that luck. But if you want to get there the amount of time and effort doesn't matter, because every step closer makes you happy. I experience that now. I want to become entrepeneur and I take steps in the right direction and that feels so good!
Failures happen in my opinion with people who quit because they don't want it enough or don't believe in themselves. Look at J.K. Rowling (she's reffered at before by others, but in another way). She got rejected so many times, thank god she believed in herself and kept on going. This video doesn't give people the selfconfidence te get where they want. It says, nice you have a hobby, but don't expect to get succesful, 'cause not many people do. And it also promotes not to take a lot of effort. Why would you if the chance of failing is so big! What then is the one thing that get's you succesful? I think in the case of Mike he should have looked at it's apponents and why they are succesful (it's not for no reason) and try to pick out the succes factor and practice over and over till he reaches it! If he wants to be succesful. And it'll only work if he trust he's able to get the succesfactor and if he wants to do the effort to get there.
End quote ;)
kruimell83 agree with you so much. I enjoyed this video but the message was delivered in a very pessimistic and demotivated manner. I believe the real difference between “success” and “failure” is persistence. Failure and rejection are bound to happen, but if you keep going your chances of success are that much higher. If you give up then that’s where the journey ends.
@@FunnyxFroggies Yes, exactly! And what is succes anyway? I think succes is getting what you wanted all along. In this video he talks about being the best dj ever. You can try to be if that's what you want, but you shouldn't if that's not your ambition. Then go for what's your ambition. And then you can have succes anyway. Always try to aim for your goals and dreams, if they are for some reason not possible (if you lose your legs a proffesional runner is a bit hard, but then still there are prothesis) then adjust your goals a bit. But never lose having a dream!
@@stevewalker6240 But that is a good advice, and that's also what I promote. But to me this video doesn't say that. This video says to me, stop hoping, stop dreaming, only a few are cut out to stand out, so don't even bother. Nice you have a hobby, but keep it like that. Maybe the maker doesn't mean that, but then that is not clear to me. Because, if you want te become something you have to work hard, but I don't hear him mentioning that, he says some people just are in luck and some people aren't. Or, this whole video is sarcastic and ment to get you to prove the opposite.
I like the odds he uses that only 1 out of a 100 people who start writing a book finishes writing. It is a perfect example of how hard things are, and how much hard work makes a difference. Because the odds of finishing are 1% but literally all you have to do is put in the work. If you put in the work your odds of finishing are 100%. If you just write a little each day, there is no way you can't finish. The only way you can fail is if you quit part way and if you don't quit you are guaranteed success. That is true for a lot of things, that you vastly approve your chances just by showing up and doing the work and the reason so many people fail is because they quit or lack the motivation to do hard work over long periods of time. It is hard to be motivated and do hard work but if you do it, then success awaits you.
@@Lilitha11 Indeed. Well, it's still possible that it's not for you. To be a succesful writer you need to write things people will like, but I think if you feel the need to become a writer, you know somewhere deep down that you've got what you need to be a succesful writer. And otherwise you can learn what you need to learn one way or another.
depression help me see this survivorship bias without knowing what its called
Drape Nailed Talaoha what this video said is not the survivorship bias. The real concept says to learn from the cases that failed and improve accordingly. This video does not get the concept and instead is depressing
Being a DJ or a writer or artist should be a hobby done after work until you become successful to the point you no longer need your real job...any artist type hobby should be done in a way that solely pleases the artist and should be original and come from the heart and soul...people will appreciate the authenticity
Nah, there is a lot of room for small artists to create for a living if they choose rational career path.
What this video doesn't tell you is there are x amount of people who just do things and who's hearts aren't fully in it and there for they either never get good enough at what they do or they give up.. I believe this case is the vast majority of failures. I think If you truly live and breath it and want it enough your chances of success is significantly higher than what this video portrays. And the universe is on your side. Mind over matter
Your videos are really appreciative, I just watched your dopamine detox video yesterday as it appears on my home page and today I came again and subscribed and watched this playlist, although its so funny watching peoples fighting in their comments of this video. I just changed gears and focus on mine to leave a comment, you are doing a great job, keep it up, hoping to see more. Thanks
Your channel is amazing! Thank you!!
Btw I disagree with the whole premise of this video as I believe the 4 most important points for succeeding are:
1.passion and dedication in what you do
2.mental toughness in what you do
3.ignorance of how good/bad you are(the brain is powerful)
4.taking advantage of as much situations as you can
Hahahahahah
For me there's a universal truth in that you should always focus on the journey, not the destination. It's about acting on things you can control. 'Success' is something out of most people's control. If you're doing something you're passionate about, then it doesn't matter if you become 'successful' or not.
So after watching this, I realize I won't be able to make it as a success. The numbers are just not there.
This concept is very important to keep in mind. Fortunately, I am doing something that I am extremely passionate about and while I get very frustrated with the masses not knowing that their great riddle has lots of meaning, I can keep on going. I know that I have something that everyone, and I do mean everyone, needs. Because of that, I will continue on and if anyone has a breakthrough like I have had in seeing IT, it will be amazing and wonderful to see.
You mention luck, but we often hear the phrase "you make your own luck". So how does that fit in here?
Luck = chance
Make your own luck = increase your chance
Everything you do has consequenses and nothing well done is of insignificance. Everything big or small starts with a step in the right direction, you just have to take that step, and the steps following it and eventually, you stumble upon success.
The more you do it, the more chances you will get, therefore, luck is not entirely a big factor, but is one nonetheless.
“Overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer” - someone wise
“Practice makes perfect” - someone else that is also wise
“Life is full of hardship, challenges and replayabilities, would play again 10/10”
- IGN probably
“Unfair brutal random” -urbzz
So...in all, luck is being at the right place, knowing the right people, at the right place. It’s practically perfect and only occurs at a random rate, so don’t factor it in your equations too much.
I started getting better at being a step ahead with success and positivity by learning from other people's mistake and trying my best not to do what they did or do that makes them unsucessful and/or toxic people.
Fear of failure keeps many from trying to succeed on their own.
The first thing successful people don't do, is sit around all day watching UA-cam videos.
You can't self-actualise if you're chasing success. For self-actualising individuals, both success and failure are irrelevant.
Thank you for helping me decide to end it all.
Thank you bro for this mind opening video. Keep putting out the great work!
Just have a day job you can put up with while doing what you love for the sake of doing it.
This. Ideally I'll make money off my real passion eventually. But if I don't, that's whatever. I do it to do it.
@Captain BLOODFIRE I dont think you watched the video or read my comment. Why do you have to be successful to do your art? If people are only interested in so called success to follow their passion than they miss the whole point of art to begin with. If you cant find a job than it means you have more time to do art anyway.
Usually there are DJs "warming up" the audience in clubs and sometimes you think - may, sound is terrible because the equipment is not "warmed up"? But sound magically changes immediately when a good DJ gets the control. I think, good DJ could hear the vibes, so, it is a given gift, like, you can draw or you can not. Training is an important thing but there are talented people and not, even trained well.
What I am supposed to do now??
Learn from failure, study the people who failed so that you can avoid their failure. Then set yourself a realistic, immediate goal or deadline and work towards that. You need to fail a lot before you succeed. Think Thomas Edison. You must reach a point where failure is impossible, so for example to go straight you need to stop going left or right, then you'll go straight because there's no other option.
Set yourself small or very moderate goals while working towards a longterm dream. Also, do something where the process of becoming better step by step gives you already pleasure.
I have been asking myself for the last 15 years also, but I agreed with the pure luck stuff
According to this video, you should fail! Lol! I say move forward in life and enjoy your success!
This is one of the best videos ice seen on Facebook. I wish I'd seen it when I was 18. It would have saven be wasting my life of broken dreams and endimg up being surrounded people who think I'm a loser.
Anthony Hall what did you fail at? What would you have done differently
@@aaaa-fq1ue that's a good question. I'll tell you. Like Mike in this video, I went into music and the chance of being a song writer/musician. Like Mike, I didn't know it when I was young, but you need CONTACTS in order to succeed. In the arts, a lot of people can do that, and insiders help each other inside. But I spent years trying desperately in London etc until I quit about 15 years ago. It's not about talent or luck most of the time, it's all about contacts. I'm as talented now as I ever was but who cares? No one does, no one ever did.
Now if I'd become a doctor and worked hard at the exams that would have been a different matter. If you do something like that which demands qualifications, you don't need contacts. You just need degrees. So 15 years ago I changed direction and I'm now a fairly successful psychologist. I earn fuck all, like most people, but at least I now have insight into why it was pointless being a musician. Sure, it's ok as a hobby. Leave it at that. That's why this video is excellent. Hopefully it will put some people off even trying.
Soo today I learn the truth is demotivating.
I've learned this years ago. Trust me, thinks will never gonna be the same nor better than they used to be.
It is not the truth, if you do your research, the survivorship bias is to learn from the cases that failed in order to improve your game. Don’t get discouraged!
Truth is neutral. Best piece of advice ever.
1. Forget about success. NEVER focus on the outcome, rather focus on the process.
@@JaysonT1 I agree with you. I have seen this happen in my own life ; the journey is more important than the destination.
This is like comparing one lottery winner and thousands or even millions of lottery losers.
Basically this video is saying that not everyone can be the 1%
Many people nowadays forget that. It's not discouraging, it doesn't mean you cannot be someone, it only says that I'm order to be on top of the world there have to be some variables right that you can't influence.
Try your best, otherwise you won't know if the variables were right for you.
Same by spending too much time on social media. You compare your own life to others' highlight reel.
It's always good to check both sides of the coin just to ensure it isn't fake. Great video bro
It is truly awakening video. I appreciate you.
I know I'm successful every day when I get out of bed and see my beautiful wife and our little boy smiling. I've reached the top.
Congratulations