The Future of Saudi Arabia || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубліковано 22 вер 2024
- The US has become largely self-sufficient when it comes to oil, and it was never really reliant upon Saudi oil in the first place. Back in the day, the US formed a relationship with Saudi Arabia not for itself, but instead to provide US allies with oil during globalization. Times are changing and so is this relationship, so what does the future of Saudi Arabia look like?
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#saudiarabia #oil #middleeast
Oh my pager is going off
I am still on the fence if that was funny and smart or dumb and funny. I am sure it was funny - for us that are not part of a terrorist organisation.
is it buzzing?
@@julonkrutor4649 queers for Palestine should be very happy right now, getting some free Israeli-Taiwanese funded transition surgery...
That was a bit “limp”
Aaaaand kablammo or mush 😂😂
Peter said good morning, he finally knows we all watch him like the morning news
Or maybe he's filming... in the morning?
@@ivancho5854No shit, Sherlock !
Nope, it's 2pm where I am.
Maybe he will talk about how the U.S. because of the Democrat's.
Business that have been operating for 100 to 150 years or more have close on massive level. Car deals are going bankrupt. Banks closing down in record numbers, massive inflation, No stop wars. whole city's being taken over by gang not even from the U.S., Massive numbers illegal Aliens getting all the jobs as Americans starve. Crime out of control and Americans being killed everyday but none Americans. No one speaks English in a English speaking nation.
Well all the Dem-O-Rats are finding out in all their city's. Now it is time to turn them lose on the posh hoods the @Peter Zeihan lives in and the Belt-way. COME GET! ! ! SOME! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
@@ivancho5854…and…? It’s afternoon for me right now 😜
I’m baffled by how little do American experts understand the Middle Eastern mentality and history.
Can you elaborate?
Seriously it's like they live in a bubble not just the average American but this is how their politicians talk and I bet you this guy never gotten a passport
he’s white and he thinks he knows better than them and smarter than them… the a colonial mentality
True .. like this man, he oversimplified it
Self comforting and validation, very delusional.
I read somewhere a story that King Faisal tried to soothe Henry Kissinger over the Saudis seemingly having the US by the short hairs by saying something like, "Someday, when the oil runs out and the House of Saud goes back into the sand, there will still be a United States of America." As someone who grew up in the '60s and '70's, there was a time when I could not imagine that a) the Cold War would ever end, and b) that Saudi Arabia would ever lose its relevance. And yet it seems that I will live long enough to see both.
Don't forget c) The United States of America may no longer exist
@@secretname4190How is “option c” a viable option? I can’t see it. Please enlighten us.
There is only one scenario I can think of to bring that about.
America cannot be invaded (Peter Zeihan explains why in some of his other videos).
So the only way America can fall is if it falls from internal pressure. In short a US Civil War Mk 2.
I will leave it to Americans to tell me if it is possible or probable.
No in our lifetime
@@nnonotnowThe Saudias own US Congress that’s why the us loves them.
US needs them to buy us debt or China to buy it.
Yes, the Saudi were very opposed to the American invasion of Iraq because they felt that the real problem in the region was IRAN. Turns out they were right on that one.
Real problem in the region right now is Israel
Nope. Their relaxation of the relationship with Iran in the last few years and their plans for the future indicate that Saudi Arabia has realized that the real problem in the Middle East, and the single reason why Arab countries are so divided, is - Israel. Without a US presence, Arabs, Turks, and even Persians (Iranians) will start to rely more on each other.
Viewing Arabs as "people who emerged from tents and will return to living in tents" is nothing short of racism.
Almost every sane person was against the Bush war for oil. Just remind us, what was the nationality of the 911 terrorist? And where did the leader of Al Qaeda come from?
Iran wasn't a big problem until the US destroyed Iraq and Syria and created a vacuum which Iran filled and became a regional dominant power.
They are always right, look what's happening in the Bab al-Mandab right now.
Anyone remember 'Odd-Even' gasoline days in 1979? 😬
That was when OPEC was flexing it's muscles and Arab oil had been cheaper than the US product, leading to stagnation of the US oil industry. This was also a period when inflation was roughly DOUBLE that experienced 2022 - 2024 and it lasted a decade, not two miserable years. How feeble the Millennials and snowflakes are in comparison with THAT generation.
Yep, felt pretty abused by SA and big oil then, we did............
Yup!!
Don’t top off.
No. I am too young to remember that old man.
"You know what the business community thinks of you? They think that a hundred years ago you were living in tents out here in the desert chopping each other's heads off and that's where you'll be in another hundred years, so, yes, on behalf of my firm I accept your money."
That quote from Syriana has stuck with me from the first time I watched that movie.
Yeah, that quote says more about America and the west in general than it says about Saudi Arabia!
I don’t think the populations in western countries realize where their elected, and unelected, leaders are taking them…Peter Zeihan is either the perfect embodiment of the delusional “American exceptionalism” mindset, is in denial or is intentionally misleading his viewers. The people in western countries, especially Europe, are in for a very jarring wake up call. It is not a coincidence that the manufacturing heart of Europe, Germany, is starting to skip beats and Europe as a whole is in decline!
The future is in the global south and that’s where the actual rulers of the world; the owners and controllers of global financialized capital, are taking their money and leaving. Capitalism needs an endless supply of babies and western nations aren’t having much of those.
Yeah, that quote says more about America and the west in general than it says about Saudi Arabia!
I don’t think the populations in western countries realize where their elected, and unelected, leaders are taking them…Peter Zeihan is either the perfect embodiment of the delusional “American exceptionalism” mindset, is in denial or is intentionally misleading his viewers. The people in western countries, especially Europe, are in for a very jarring wake up call. It is not a coincidence that the manufacturing heart of Europe, Germany, is starting to skip beats and Europe as a whole is in decline!
The future is in the global south and that’s where the actual rulers of the world; the owners and controllers of global financialized capital, are taking their money and leaving. Capitalism needs an endless supply of babies and western nations aren’t having much of those.
😅
Quote is completely wrong or at least very outdated. KSA has spent TRILLIONS moving their economy away from oil the last 2 decades
I'll give you 70 million for your other kid.
Peter, do a video of the "pager incident"
Guy sure knows some CIA spooks. Word is, Israel pulled the trigger once they caught whiff that Hezbollah was getting suspicious and it was a matter of use it or lose it.
I only saw local news articles that they bombed themselfs 😂 what is obviously fake news, because noone is dumb enough to install fake bomb pagers on their own guys right?
Yup. Just for laughs. 😂
@@ivancho5854 Pagers?? This war is starting to look like "Operation Desert Storm" all over again...
You mean that joint Israeli-Taiwanese collaboration?, he certainly won't reveal that much !.
The delusions of US experts is staggering. There is so much wrong here I'm shocked people listen to him.
They are jealous hypocrites
@@Khyberization this guy says china is on the brink of collapse for years now, yet every index shows china is just growing ( other than population), and BRICS hasn’t even gone into full effect yet.
When Biden asked the Saudis to pump more they said "no."
Because his admin cozied up to the Iranians, enemies of Saudi Arabia
For the oil markets which still dictates prices
Yes Biden doesn't like MSB, but that is in the past now!?!
Biden asked "yes way?" And they said no way.
Sleepy Joe Biden is a "joke" ... ( BTW who is running the country now ? )
Had TRUMP asked the Saudis to 'pump more' they would have ( Trump is SERIOUS and UNPREDICTABLE!) .... PERIOD, end of story !
As a Saudi citizen, I didn’t here a single westerner talk about us without dehumanizing the people by using the word “the Saudi’s” like few filthy rich guys living in one tent, I’m a regular citizen like the other 20 millions Saudis working hard to take care of my family,dehumanizing Saudi citizens make it easy for westerners have guilty free cheap oil for a century
How do you call people from Saudi Arabia? Isn't it Saudis?..🤔
@@SkywalkerPaulit's the "tone". Do you say the Americans or the American "people" to describe the citizens?!
@@malconsak So instead of Saudis people should say " the Saudi Arabian people" ?
Silly victimhood attempt
Yeah, nobody's ever referred to us as "Yanks"...
disabused is one of the best words in the world
Gorgeous background
India, EU, China, Japan all have a vested interest in keeping Saudi working. Not gonna crash.
We can supply Japan ourselves. EU has North Sea and relationships in Africa, along with US.
@@careyfreeman5056 everyone can still get oil, but you dont get GDP growth without cheap oil. They need Saudi for that.
The US will jack up prices on Japan if they know they've got no other suppliers.
@@tommyt1785 Definitely a possibility, but hopefully we're not that dumb. Of course, it would hardly be precedent setting if we were.
Good luck getting that group to cooperate on defense capabilities.
@@BasePuma4007China can.
“Take away the oil all you have is a pension for domestic violence. That had me dying”
Except that "pension" should be "penchant" to make any sense.
@@Frank-Lee-Speeking Thank you! Too many "illiterates" on ALL of these forums!
That's basically the history of Saudi Arabia. 🤣🤣🤣
Peter....typical American racist. Anyone who isn't under our boot, he or she is wortless
The oil in saudi is the only thing that's keeping the Mujahideen from coming to your land to establishing sharia low.
Turkey keeps coming up time and time again. very interesting times.
Yeah, since the Bronze Age. I think that whole Anatolia region just might be important to world affairs.
Turkey doesn't have the economy to support a major war, less so than Russia, taking over Iraq (Or part of it) then Saudi seems a step too far in the short term and they are bound to have problems trying to govern the region(s), better to give them a long term security guarantee and let them pay for the invasion by stealth!?!
@@jamesholden8256 I think the state of Turkey is about to have a finger in everyone’s pie in that area. gonna get fruity i reckon
Make Turkey Armenia and Greece again.
I for one welcome our new Neo-Ottoman overlords
Yeah, the US needs to leave the middle east altogether. Opec can sit and spin.
We would, but aipac.
problem is, US arm industry like money, don't think they gonna leave
@@Bigbudd0045incorrect... clearly very ignorant
@@sixfiftyfive2386it's not when you consider how many congressmen have dual citizenship with Israel. Also, aipac is a very powerful lobbying force in congress. They specifically ran a candidate to oppose a pro Palestine candidate in New York this year and won.
@@danielmcguire7344stop trying to bring the Jews into an Arab problem. Can you Arabs ever have an issue that the Jews aren’t responsible for?
Saudi Arabia produces over 10 million barrels of oil per day, any significant disturbances in their oil produciton or export would end up with a meaningful impact on global economy, this is not going to change any time soon, the world is going to consume more oil as we go forward, and it will keep its reliance on Saudia Arabia.
Middle income and low income countries will consume more oil as we go forward, rich countries will convert to electricity and renewables.
@@TheMRJGREATJ Sources are becoming more and more diversified overall, technically and geographically. Markets are inevitable, no matter how much governments try to suppress them.
What will the US consumer thinks if their government disrupts the global supply chain of energy and the oil price hits $200++ a barrel.
Zeihan even says "not yet" so you're not wrong.
But
It seems to be sooner than you think. The US and Europe are hurtling towards alternate sources, and as he says the US has enough oil for itself and its allies anyway.
So you're right it will continue, until the day it doesn't. And that day will be very sudden and surprising. And probably sooner rather than later. Not like 5 years, but not like 50 either.
@@12345anton6789the US is currently pumping out more oil than ever in its history and we have a shit ton of oil across multiple massive fields we aren’t even tapping yet….Get real about reality before you speak.
I feel sorry for the people that think this guys knows wth he’s actually talking about. This is why this country is at a breaking point for grossly underestimating others. Go back and listen to what he was saying about China in 2008 and then what he was saying about Russia when the war broke out in Ukraine.
Literally thinking that. Was looking for someone who understands in the comments. He thought Russia would break into several pieces with regional war lords ruling each piece. And that NATO would defeat Ru55ia!
Dude has an oversized ego and a n overactive imagination!
Russia is in its death blows, We a Russian leader has no way out he attacks the country next him. If Nato puts 10% of it strength behind Ukraine the Russian line would collapse. This would go one of two ways, nukes and the end of Putin or the collapse of Russia and the end of Putin. Either case, it is the end of Putin and Russia as we know it.
It was worth keeping focus until the very end. Finished with a zinger for history nerds!
Yeah, I noticed that one. Hopefully film buffs will pick up on it as well.
What a backdrop! This man’s quality control is legendary 😊
You mean all the videos where he's recording and the wind is blowing his mic to the point you can't understand him? Lmfao. I like his videos too, but stop being such a clown.
Of course it is, CIA isnt going to put out crap quality videos
@@ronanfel8191There are medications to level off your anger and self hate.
This man might have a hiking "problem"
This is a hiking channel with an international news spin to it.
Can you get treatment for that?
He doesn't have a problem! He can stop whenever he wants...and sit next to bunch of freshly cut logs.
It looks like enjoyable exercise, he can afford to be where the weather is nice
We all have our addictions.....
A Saudi man told a joke: "My father rode a camel; I drive a car; my son flies a jet plane; his son will ride a camel....."
An American man told a joke: "My father married my mother, I have a girlfriend, and my son will marry a nonbinary gender xyzw and produce no offspring leading to the total demise of our nation"
Yall made this up ain't no one said this.
@@malconsakit’s a joke.
I no longer backpack into the mountains so thanks for your mountain pod casts. Salute from Utah.
Me too. Im in the flat and below sea level Netherlands.
Two carriers in the Persian Gulf was never a thing. The only times we did it on a regular basis was when we were actively at war in the region. Two carriers in the Mediterranean was the policy and the only times we didn't have that was when one was in the Persian Gulf. I got to take the long boat ride around Africa in 1980 and we were the first carrier in the Persian Gulf in years. At the time nuclear powered carriers didn't use the Suez Canal.
well, zeihan does "trust me bro" quite often
Does the Gulf of Oman counts, we just had two there together in the last month, if only for a couple of weeks. During the Iraq war, my understanding is we had multiple CVNs in the region for an extended period.
don't we still have presence on island of al-Masirah off Oman coast? USA Used to fly B-52s in and out of there, and permanent forces there as well, I believe. Operated like an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the region.
The range difference between the med, and the gulf is negligible.
@@eichelbergergary Yes, modernized and runway extended. Also used to stage Operation Eagle Claw - failed rescue of US embassy hostages in Tehran. There is a new Sultan in Oman now, but he seems to be maintaining continuity with his Anglophile father (attended Sandhurst and the Brits saved him from 2 insurgencies).
Peter has a lot of great backdrops, but this one takes spectacular to another level.
history shows that power isn't solely measured by military strength. For instance, during the Yom Kippur War in 1973, the Arab nations, especially the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, imposed an “oil embargo” on the U.S. and other countries supporting Israel, which caused a global economic crisis and skyrocketing oil prices. This move demonstrated that oil was a powerful tool and forced major countries like the U.S. to reconsider their foreign policies toward the Middle East.
Then, during the 1979 oil crisis, the U.S. and the world faced another disruption when the Iranian Revolution reduced oil production, making it clear how crucial the stability of the Gulf and Iran was for the global economy. These events show that the Gulf states are not easily controlled; they play a central role in the global economic and political balance. Oil was not just a source of energy but a strategic weapon that influenced decisions of even the world's superpowers."
This response highlights the economic and political strength of the Gulf countries and how oil has been a powerful tool in dealing with global powers like the U.S.
Try that now, weaksuace.
Ruzzia tried💀
Have you ever encountered like a bear or some shit like that while trying to film lol?
We’ve seen a mountain goat recently, so I guess he defines did encounter “some shit”
Likely safer than a street corner in Seattle or Tacoma.
And......they don't do geopolitics.....😄
“Like a bear”
I’ve been where he’s at and animals just leave you be. Sometimes in the morning a small/medium bear will be looking for food early in the morning. If you keep it secured you’re fine.
I have only been addressed by a royal prince once.
I was a cadet at Royal Air Force College Cranwell. I entered the bar of the junior mess, and sitting at the bar nursing a drink was the senior cadet supervising us juniors. Our home, not his...
His Royal Highness Prince xxx Sultan glanced at me, "... put on a record."
Now, there were only two records in the pile that I liked. One was the theme to Lawrence of Arabia. I chose the other, The Student Prince. Then, having obeyed his order, I left.
Probably the only Saudi, (royal or otherwise) who ever spoke to me. It left an abiding bad impression.
I met lots of Saudi princes in London back in the 00’s and never met a single one I’d willingly meet again, several I’d actually consider to be evil of mind, one or two evil of action and I don’t say that lightly.
To the camels they shall return
@@InimitaPaul He did a slick humble/brag = )
It still baffles me why the Anglo-American empire allowed these desert tribes to thrive. Post WW2, all of Arabia was still under British/ American rule, and these rich Arab states were just a bunch of tribes and villages with tiny populations. Now, the whole region is a mess, and America is pulling out.
@@isunlloaollWhat would have been the alternative? Taking their resources? Suppressing them?
Im old enough to have lived through several waves of "saudi arabia will break up next year"
True but there's some merit to it. I remember some Emirate guy saying " My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I drive an SUV. My son drives a sports car. But my grandson will ride a camel" I am paraphrasing but I believe it is clear that even they know their society is not viable in the long-run
Yes but reaching peak oil is actually possible now, and once we’re on the reverse slope…
I didn't hear Peter mention anywhere in the video that they would break up?
@@oldschoolben438 Peak oil has nothing to do with it. You're not listening.
And I'm old enough to realize that ANY actual power that wants to take Saudi Arabia can do so as soon as there is no one else to stop them. In other words: No US protection = No SA.
Great post Peter.
🤣🤣🤣 I love sarcasm
You make it sound so clear cut for the geopolitical future of the US. Good luck
I remember when I had the wireline borehole academy in the middle east. A bunch of saudi kids as my colleagues with "university degrees" in oil and gas....for them to pass the exams...they had already the results. Absolutely useless, 0 skills whatsoever before and after the academy.
Privileged people don’t like to get their hands dirty… They would have been better off doing IT!
Ciprian, my husband held a similar job years ago and had the same reaction. Every response from the Arab students - Saudis, Jordanians, Kuwaitis, etc. - was a word salad that demonstrated no understanding of logic and ended with "which proves my point that Israel has no right to exist." The one exception were the Moroccans, one of whom gave a thoughtful presentation after the class ended that included warm comments about his Arab and Israeli friends. That took guts.
?????😂😂
@@wyominghome4857??😂
@@wyominghome4857Moroccans are very different
I like the backdrop of the 'gulf', 'divide' between Peter and the next mountain over
The Arabs in the Persian gulf are more than capable to develop their oilfields by them self. They have no problem in buying the technology from Asia whom are by far the no1 in offshore rigs/production facilities. Large oil/gas importers like china, Japan, India and South Korea are more than happy to give a helping hand if it means cheaper energy
USA and Europe has the technology and the others buy from them.
Russia didn't depend on western technology because they were pro west.
Arabian Gulf*
Arabs do not do servile labor and suffer severe lack of mechanical skills.
@6:04 this is why an American relationship with Iran is important. Not saying we allow them the capacity to develop a nuclear arsenal, but having the Iranians cut the tap on the Chinese with just a word saves the naval assets, and likely establishes a strong incentive against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Undoing 1953 is going to be a tough task. Arguably the worst foreign policy decision in US History and for easily the worse reasons (BP/Dulles & Dulles profits).
Why shouldn't they have the ability to develop a nuclear arsenal?
Regardless of our domestic energy needs, wouldn't the USA be cutting off its nose to spite its face if we abandoned the Saudis as an ally? Seems prudent to me that the US maintain our 'friendly' ties with Saudi Arabia as you never know what the future holds.
Once the oil is gone they are dead weight
@@mkvenner2 are you talking about the Saudis here? American oil supplies will run out way before Saudi will
The Saudis were never an ally. They've always been a useful resource, nothing more.
@@mkvenner2 That oil won't disappear in the foreseeable future
@@williamflack6691The oil wont disappear for the foreseeable, but the need for it will. America already doesn’t need it, other major US allies are transitioning away from it or moving to different suppliers.
The only other factor is that the Saudi’s could strangle the Red Sea if they needed to, I think the days of Suez being a reliable trade route are dying.
I think u underestimate China and overestimate Turkey.
I’m starting to think Peter Zeihan is actually homeless, that’s why he’s always in the nature. 😂
The American Ambassador authorized to Saddam the invasion then took huge money to make him retreat from Kuwait. They tried to blackmail Saudi by the false flag operation . While making under the table deals with their enemies.
Given how large the AlSaud dynasty, it would be interesting to see how they fair in exile, as I think only a tiny fraction of the 40,000+ clan has the ability to move overseas and live comfortably for generations to come. They won’t fair well, just like the Romanovs before them, and that clan numbered less than 300 in late 1917.
If you have 40k people in your clan opposition needs to run not you. 😂
We used to sell military kit to the Saudis when we still had a defence industry worthy of the name. We even sold them some Tornado F3s.
Why wouldn't the Saudis just develop nuclear weapons as a security guarantee in this event? Why wouldn't everyone? Isn't nuclear non proliferation the real reason the US acts as a security guarantor for half the world? Doesn't that go out the window and we wind up with 50 nuclear armed states immediately after the US decides to become a 'disruptor' rather than a stabilizer?
Because they don’t have the scientists to make them or the military structure to control them and they’re afraid of building a capable military, because that could overthrow the Royal Family.
exactly. peter seems to just ignore this danger and pretend like it's no big deal if every country in the middle east becomes a north korea. he even pretends to think iran isn't capable of producing a nuclear detonator.
MBS spoke on that. He said that nuclear weapons were evil and nobody should have them, but if his enemies got nuclear weapons then he would be compelled to have them.
They don’t need to develop nuclear weapons. The moment the US steps out of the role it is playing now, China will most happily step into the same role. Granted they don’t have the same level of military expertise or even a navy as large as the US but they have enough to keep all other countries in the region barring Japan and maybe India in check. They have 3 aircraft carriers longer than 300m and are believed to be building 3-5 more.
If Saudi Arabia and the US move apart then what happens to the Petro-Dollar? As it is the US has a $34T accumulated deficit. If they lose they position as the default trade currency in a commodity as vital as oil would that not also affect their overall economic leverage?
@@navinadv There is no viable replacement for the dollar. By the time there is the world will likely only be using 25% of the oil it is now.
Love the scenery as much as your commentary. Live in Calgary and love mountains.
PETER!!! If the US has never been very dependent on Saudi Oil, WTF was I doing waiting in long lines at the gas station on odd or even days and never on Sunday in 1973-74 because of the Oil Crisis which was NOT the US crisis, it was the Middle East’s problem???
Are you going to do a video about the exploding Pagers in Lebanon?
That was a terrorist attack
I have a feeling that the bond will grow even deeper
Very interesting presentation
Don't under rate desert power. It was decisively influential on Arrakis.
"A penchant for domestic violence".... wow
This guy speaks with so much conviction that you would actually think that he knows what he is talking about
Guess which industrial country is the closest to the Middle Eastern oil: Turkey.
Guess which one that Peter mentioned is the most incompetent!?!
Since when is Turkey considered a manufacturing country?
@@ryankline1164 look at the trademap
Wrong. There is one country that is barely 1000 miles away and can lock down the Arabian sea on 4hrs notice.
Peter, you ever fish those streams while passing thru the areas? Caught some nice trout from them while I used to live locally. Got up so high the cutthroat wouldn't hit on anything artificial. Had to rip the spinner off and just use the fly to keep from getting skunked one time. The ice clinging to my pole might have had something to do with it.
There is a Turkish proverb: don’t remind the donkey of the watermelon rind. I don’t want my country to have anything to do on another country’s land
Then you are a fool. Good for Turkey that you aren’t in charge.
When energy markets get interrupted, you either have to directly annex Mosul & Kirkuk or have a relationship with Saudis that resembles your Ottoman colonial past.
It is a wise choice if you can stick to it.
Turks have a long history of the opposite.
@@ticktock3152 Many do. It's what they're doing now that matters.
Turkey is another enemy of the Western world.
This man treats geopolitics like hearts of iron 4
Love that quote from Syriana. Great film.
Peter, hello from Australia, I watch every day from down under. Thankyou for your content.
Brisbane mate
Have you ever seen Crocodile Dundee? Great movie that really features Australian culture.
@@Iwishiwasanoscarmeyerweinerno it doesn’t
Excellent - a fellow fan of 'Syriana' - a film that filled in a lot of blanks, and pulled no punches. And, it seems, 'Lawrence of Arabia' in the post-script.
Chilling..
I just bought a digital (cheap) copy of _Syriana,_ it's a great movie I saw at the theater when it came out. Of course, _Lawrence of Arabia_ is also great.
I bought _Syriana_ recently and, of course, _Lawrence of Arabia_ is a classic. The _only_ good thing you can say about MBS is he seems to be trying to avoid the dilemma Peter discussed here.
It's refreshing to hear Peter acknowledge "a lot of rounding errors and caveats" in a statement.
"100 years ago you were living in tents and beheading each other in the desert, and in 100 years you will be again"
That's some big Ozymandius energy right there.
I think PZ overestimates the effects of the present moment and underestimates inertia, but gravity sure does seem to be in the direction he says.
they already did, but in luxury building instead
That time USA trended in slavery and cowboy wild western Massacres. Don’t lecture us about morality and you superior feeling is creepy like a desert
your last word *again* was my ahaa moment - now the history of the region makes alot of sence to me.
I don't get it. I thought that the sour crude from Saudi Arabia was still necessary because the US refineries don't get along with light-sweet crude? That's why the US has become such a big EXPORTER of light sweet crude such that we have this complex oil transport "square dance" that keeps all the thousands of tankers at sea. Now you are pretty much describing the exact opposite and I'm confused.
Nailed it.
We have never imported Saudi oil, we we started to import oil from 1979 it was from Canada and some from Venezuela. We can take Saudi oil but we don't need it. That was for our allies.
Source other than Zeihan?@@HellBot-gi5si
There is plenty of crude from other countries to throw into the blend at US refineries, which have always been in high demand around the clock. Priority scheduling is highly sought after because of time value of money.
Top oil producers:
US
Saudi
Russia
Canada
Iraq
Brazil
UAE
Iran
Kuwait
Dont sweat it Peter. I also get confused between Yellowstone Valley and Yosemite Valley.
Really? Well only those living 'elsewhere' and not in Western USA might confuse the two, East Coast or ?, tough to confuse Yellowstone with Yosemite...simply a mis-statement & OK...key was mentioning of the Merced River; runs through Yosemite Valley...
One of your best videos yet painting a dire prophecy for that godforsaken hate filled region
Start the popcorn! I've been waiting my whole life for this.
It was always forecast as going to end up that way since I was a lad 50 years ago and nothing much has advanced in the region since, it appears the majority religion is holding it back and will return it to its old ways fairly shortly after the money runs out, and I think a hundred years might be on the optimistic side!?!
@@TomTomicMicforecast is 1 million degrees....💥
America jumping from fentanyl addiction to copium.😂
Saudi Arabia: “If you take away the oil, uh… all you have left is a penchant for domestic violence.” Classic! That one is going into my library of usable quotes.
"Again"....!! Excellent point
😂
When it comes to a shooting war, China has been building up a six month reserve of oil. If it comes to a shooting war, we would have to take that out. They’ve also been stocking food. That would be harder to take out.
Possible that it would not be an all out war.
China would like a short taisN war with us stayyout.
China totally implodes if west stops imports.
Chins would implode if west dropped imports by only 20%.
Xiaoping knew this.
Xi should know this but no guarantee he won't do something stupid. Putin did the stupid thing.
The best argument for supporting Ukraine is to lower risk of xi having a go.
It is interesting, considering that Turkey has the largest military in the region, they know how to use it thanks to the WEST. And the current Dictator has wanted to reform or recreate the Ottoman Empire or at least try it would seem in the last few years. Also, as it has to relate to the Saudi's and Mecca and Medina, the families that control Islamic faith locations is only allowed because the families have allowed the House of Saud to do so. I am rather surprised that Mecca/Medina is not an independent nation like the Vatican?
Do not confuse Turkish Elections with what you have in your country. Every vote is counted for and he is a selected President
@@muratduman3319 Oh you mean the FAKE Coup that happened in Turkey?
Current leader has messed up the economy. Any military needs a strong economy.
The Turks are descendent of one of the greatest land based military cultures in history. They don't need the West to teach them war. They defeated the Russians. Their men have required service. The West has trouble manning its armies and the population is fat and new gens are brainwashed. Not that the West couldn't and wouldn't man up in a WW scenario, but Turkey's location necessitates preparedness.
They are not however much good at naval and only so-so at air. That is where they depend on NATO for extra regional defense. They'd have to prioritize their own protection in any regional war they'd be involved in too.
The Hijaz and the Hashemites are/were mainly a commercial power, including religious commerce from the pilgrimage. There is some agriculture there too. A significant portion of even the Saudi citizenship holders there are not descendent of Arabian Tribes. Any Saudi can tell you from the name whether a Saudi is an actual Arabian or not. These things still matter.
While there is still regional rivalry and resentment of the excesses of the AlSaud, MBS has done a lot to move the center of power and finance to Riyadh and is quite popular with new generations across the Kingdom. While the oil remains, the Al Saud will maintian their control over it and power. Even as that diminishes, Hijazis hardly have an alternative without a foreign backer. The people in the south, while related to Yemen are not better off otherwise and the northwestern tribes would have no use to officially unite with Jordan, which itself survives on western aide.
Jordan is only Hashemite because the Brits helped install them against the Ottomans, and the kings rely on the tribes to continue their rule. Not to mention the whole Palestinian issue and the millions of them in Jordan.
The inland tribes of the Najd and the north are the more warlike ones. Although today many are as fat and complacent as many Americans.
There are no scenarios short of WW and invasion by a foreign power where this or the next generation of Saudi citizens would opt out of being part of the Kingdom. Even if the AlSaud have another bought of internal strife with assassinations and infighting and power transitions to the next gen, like MBS or other, they will preserve AlSaud rule by all means. Also highly doubt that any of their Najdi rivals would be able to dislodge them any time soonish.
@@jijiipetti1433 😂😂😂in fact, late ottomans were just mere pawns between russian, french and british interests...and because of that, when an emerging power arrived to break the status quo ante, the ottomans went all in for the germans...and lost it all! left alone, turkey has no military value in any combat field!
Turkey appears to be developing a blue-water navy and expanding its base in Qatar to include naval assets. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia seems to be improving relations with Turkey through weapons deals worth billions of dollars. This raises the possibility that in the future, not only smaller Gulf countries but also Saudi Arabia might rely on Turkey for military support. Additionally, with the potential improvement in relations with Egypt and the Turkish navy's presence in Libya, Somalia and possibly other African countries, it seems that at least some portions of global trade could pass through Turkish-protected areas.
I'm wonder why Mr. Zeihan downplays China in these videos about Middle East status. They are involved with the Iranians, but also with the Saudis (and the UAE) as they keep buying a good quantity of crude oil to fuel their thirst for energy. Maybe he should have thrown in a bit on why the Chinese aren't doing more for military port access and their PLA Navy isn't rotating more ships over to the waters in that area (Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, etc).
It’s true that the Chinese navy just isn’t up to task with what the Saudi’s would want (they are used to the US navy after all). However, Peter is mainly a writer and speaker who needs to give his audience what they want to hear. Since his audience is mainly American, that means downplaying any external threats and competitors. Understand what you are getting and you won’t be disappointed. Peter isn’t some truth seeker who only reports completely factual things
China oil is from Iran.
1. They can't. 2. They don't want to (they saw our adventures). 3. It would force them to commit to something, which they don't like to do, with no promise of a return and the real potential to add yet another mess to the basketful of messes they're already dealing with. Which is EXACTLY why we should pull out and leave both the CCP and Saudis swinging in the wind.
@@careyfreeman5056 You are right. China buys Saudi oil, and Saudi Arabia lets China to build infrastructure, such as installing solar power plants and building railways. In return, Saudi Arabia invests China with oil refining and fertilizer production, in addition, Saudi Arabia invests in China's new energy vehicle industry too. it is said , Saudi Arabia is the major shareholder of NIO EV.
@@careyfreeman5056 It does not need to create conflicts in Middle east to maximum the profits from military weapon sales, because China does not want to make money from weapon sales.
Saudi Arabia has had several joint operations with India.
Just curious. You don’t think that India would be willing to step in and provide Naval security for a desperate Saudi Arabia? I imagine that India would love to have an oil supplier that was highly dependent on them.
They already buy at a discount from Russia
😂 India navy...
Saudi's historic, cultural, religious and military ally is Pakistan.There are many economic ties to India in the Gulf but not the same. Similarl in most of the smaller Gulf states. A large portion of Omanis are ethnically Baluch, originally from Pakistan. Although the seperatist movement in Baluchistan has grown hot recently.
Dont ask peter to think that hard. His brain will melt away along with his storytelling. 😂😂😂
Your final comment on Turkey was eye-opening. Thanks
Totally not feasible in this era. Circumstances are far different that they were during the Ottoman Empire. See my reply to another comment about this. In sum, it would necessitate a regional conflict far surpassing any modern one thus far. It would also most likely be against Iran or possibly Israel. In either case Turkey and the Gulf states would be allies of a sort.
Turkey is also not a naval power and has no need to conquer the Peninsula. Scenarios would involve war in Syria or Iraq or both, on its borders. It's air force is decent but not such that it has much to divert from protection to conquest.
@@jijiipetti1433 "Turkey is also not a naval power". Everything looks weak compared to US I get it. But, no naval power?
the middle east has always been of shaky ground (metaphorically) - there's not much there unless you're interested in sand or oil an the oil reserves are finite - it will eventually cease to be economically viable to tap that reserve. the Saudi's (and the UAE as a whole) needs to divest away from petroleum asap, maybe switch to solar power production/export if they want to stay in the international energy market, but anything else at this point. if they dont their economies will be in freefall... and, like Peter says, the Saudi's are largely reliant on ex-pat oilfield workers - they have next to no domestic capability to export crude oil.
They've chosen to ruin golf and buy soccer/football teams instead. Oh, and build linear cities in the desert. Get the popcorn ready. This is going to be fun.
Their biggest problem is still water. This is why they are trying to bolster their economy in strange ways with entertainment and tourism. If they could get access to a decent water supply, they could become an agriculture powerhouse.
@@Nylon_riot Very true. Most people don't realize that deserts actually have productive soil due to the lack of rain. That said, I have ZERO faith in the Saudis to pull this off.
As a wise lecturer told us in the early 80s: "It's not the middle east, it's the muddle east, and they all hate each other and always will" Lawrence summed it well in the movie (could not use those lines today)
Where do the allies get their oil from now though?
One of his overarching points throughout all his books and talks is the U. S. is beginning to disengage from the world ever since Iraq 2. So they don't really need allies or care about them too much. And if the U. S. and Canada, and maybe even Mexico drilled a little bit more, and greatly expanded their export facilities, then North America could supply a lot of Europe and maybe even Japan.
North Sea, Africa, Indonesia, USA. . . .
It’s amazing how things so often come full circle.
"My father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes Benz, my son will drive a Rolls Royce, and his son will ride a camel."
I absolutely love that you do your videos while being active in nature.
An interesting shift, he said Strait of Hormouz and not the Strait of Mallaca.
Well spotted.
He's just being typically American - foolishly cocky.
US does not have the capability to shut down the straight of Hornuz. Gosh, they can't even deal with the Houthi blockade of the Bab El Mendab!
@@MuzorewaRatshikuni The U.S. could easily shut down the Straight of Hormuz. The only thing questionable is their resolve to do so.
Hormuz is closer to US bases and would be harder to reach for China and its satrapies (Pakistan . . .). Granted, Iran would be a problem but then again it usually is the past few decades.
@@echomande4395china does not have white water navy.
Indian definitely moving in that direction
Thank you Peter
Your bias against Saudi Arabia is blatant, and I won’t stay silent on it. There are six points where your argument falls apart, and I’m about to break them down.
1. “All that’s left is a desert country with internal violence.”
This is pure ignorance and prejudice. Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Middle East, the leader of the Arab world, and a major player in global geopolitics. The notion of internal violence is outdated; the country enjoys strong internal security. You’re clinging to stereotypes that have no basis in the current reality.
2. “The U.S. doesn’t need Saudi oil anymore, so Saudi Arabia is irrelevant.”
Wrong. Oil is a global commodity. Even if the U.S. doesn’t need Saudi oil, the world does. Disrupting Saudi oil would cause global instability, affecting everyone-including the U.S. Saudi Arabia is still essential to global energy stability.
3. “Saudi Arabia relies on foreign expertise and could be crippled without U.S. support.
Laughable. Aramco is the world’s most valuable company, leading in technological and operational expertise. Saudi Arabia is diversifying under Vision 2030. They’re not dependent on the U.S. like you suggest.
4. “The U.S. could embargo Saudi oil or disrupt their export terminals.”
Absurd. Such a move would backfire globally. U.S. allies depend on Saudi oil, and Saudi Arabia could retaliate by cutting output, causing a crisis. The U.S. can’t afford that.
5. “Saudi Arabia views the U.S. as a mercenary force.”
Outdated. Saudi Arabia has built up its own military and formed partnerships globally. The relationship is about mutual interests, not dependency.**
6. “Saudi Arabia’s options for defense are dwindling.”
Nonsense. The Kingdom is strengthening ties with countries like China, India, and Russia. The U.S. isn’t walking away, and Saudi Arabia isn’t helpless. Their defense options are far from limited.
Your analysis is full of bias and outdated assumptions. Saudi Arabia isn’t the powerless nation you try to paint it as.
I love how every one of your "refutations" is pure opinion not backed up by a single fact, but by Saudi PR statements. You bent the knee to the Houthis. You have no military to speak of. As he mentions, we can supply key allies. If your oil stops flowing, China takes the biggest hit. And China simply can't provide the security you need. It's going to be so fun watching you go down!
My man 👍
1. Aramco merely contracts all work to foreigners. Labor to Paks and Bangledeshis, expertise to Westerners mainly Americans and British.
2. KSA military while well funded is a complete joke and totally incompetent and useless. Worse most useless soldiers in the world. Anyone in the world who has trained with them can attest to that.
Saudi is biggest economy and influencer because if oil wealth. Without oil wealth it doesn't have much.
Aramco is successful but Saudi has huge numbers of expat experts.
Agree that USA as disrupter is crazy. Why would USA disrupt the world.
I could debate with you on the merits and strengths and weaknesses of all these points and more. But in refuting Peter's extremely shallow and also outdated and ill-informed analysis, I generally concur.
I have made several observations in various comments and replies here that you would probably also debate me on. But they are also points he failed to address or knows little of.
I do have to say for the others reading, your points are reflective of a staunch loyalty to the current regime and especially MBS. Keep in mind, even those who are not US democrats, liberals, Biden, Obama or Clinton supporters, nor readers of the Washington Post, NYTimes or MSM followers have little clue that MBS if quite popular in Saudi. The democrats befuddle their perception of Saudi with their hatred of Trump and conservatives are often caught up in the clash of civilizations between Islam and the West.
Few on either side appreciate the vast changes in Saudi over the last decade and the rise of the new generations.
Fascinating .. I never realized the point that the US always needed that oil not necessarily for themselves, but for their allies in globalization in order to fight the Cold War.. thank you for educating me again Peter 🙋🏻♂️
Or the Saudi's will have to man up and start defending themselves for real.
They can't. They're that worthless. They bent the knee to the Houthis for Christ's sake!
I wish!
Its easy to hire bodyguards than fighting for yourself. And bodyguards for Saudis are dime a dozen.
When did the Americans defend Saudi Arabia? It’s all smoke and mirrors. Saudi Arabia was atta cked several times in the last few years. What did the Americans do? Saudi Arabia does not need the United States. You Americans are so gullible.
@@careyfreeman5056 just like you and the EU bent the knee, did you forget that you told Saudi Arabia not to continue when they were actually winning, then you alongside the British, try to do the same thing early this year and failed miserably, what hypocrites 😂
Ending was savage hahaha
I don't agree with Mr Zeihan on a lot of things but he does make me think. If someone makes me think then that person is worth listening to.
Likewise, I think's all wet on EVs but he's 100X smarter than I am so I gotta respect that (and I have a Poli-Sci / CS degree)
This gives PZ the opportunity to broadcast speculation with uncertain limitation of value. As I've mentioned before, the carrot today has some sugar and that's what keeps us following that carrot. Creative mind manipulation gives way to insights or forecasts of human behavior. The real deal is.........our species is very predictable, history has logged that very effectively for us. We are addicted to our own demise.....
He represents the CIA. Always a good plan to understand what the CIA is trying to push as propaganda
@@michaellane1316 I disagree with the last part of your statement. Maybe it was ironic, I don't know. What I do know is we can disagree like adults on here, unlike a lot of other platforms and to me that's a good thing.
Just because I disagree with someone doesn't mean I'm right.
@@tachikaze222 Except his position makes the most sense. The truth is always somewhere in the middle and that's pretty much his position (and mine) on EVs and alternatives in general. Use them where they work and find alternatives where they don't. The solution isn't all of one thing at the expense of the other. Solar in Germany IS stupid!
always enjoy hearing your educated views on world and local issues
Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t USA dependent on Saudi oil at the beginning? Since it was much easier to extract oil than anywhere else. Which is why the oil crises affected USA and which led USA to invest in its own oil sector and infrastructure
Yes, you are wrong.
Good question.
Where did USA get oil before shale.
@@knoll9812 Alaska ? And before that was Iran?
@@N561LB so why did USA get badly affected by the oil crisis?
Cool AI Wallpaper, it looks so real.
A few comments wondering why the clouds are so still.
The US didn't want the oil from the Middle East, but the US wanted all oil to be priced in USD. That pushed the USD into the role of global reserve currency and ultimately resulted in the US' power and wealth today.
No, usd became the global reserve currency in 1944, 30 years before the petrodollar deal. It became the petrodollar because it was the reserve currency, not the other way around. And also because the US was the only credible security guarantor for the Saudis.
Not true at all. The US became the world’s most dominant economy sometime after the Civil War between 1868-1898. All this other nonsense is just fanciful thinking from people who hope the US order will fail and America will collapse when it does. It is a dangerous conclusion that doesn’t make much historical sense.
@@jovelo902
And replacing the gold standard earlier on.
You got it the other way around. It's not the US who wants to pay for oil with dollars. It's the oil producers, who want dollars for their oil, because all other currencies are basically worthless.
It doesn't matter any more. You see because of NAFTA America, Canada, and Mexico is now 1/3 of the entire world economy. There is no currency that can handle the volume of trade. So most people still just price it US dollar because their local currency is worthless or just to teeny tiny to be worth anything and no one wants to buy anything from small countries that really don't have any manufacturing.
Any "analysis" of Saudi Arabia without including a dive into Iran, and thus also Israel, is superficial at best or purposefully excludes the top threat the Saudis face, to promote their point. It would be
surprising from a geopolitical expert so it can only be deliberate. Unless the expert is a bit of a showman. Peter excels at this sort of great sounding but surface exposition.
Saudi has a strategic importance that is more than just the oil in the region. Trade is vital to Europe and Asia. Way before oil, the Brits and the French colonized seperate sides of the Bab El Mandeb. Yemen is a basketcase and given its mountainous and desert terrain, no outside power has ever controlled more than 40 some % of it in modern times. The Yemenis can hardly maintain a unified country and are still in a civil war from 2011.
The other side of the Red Sea in Africa is worse with ongoing war in Sudan, frequent conflict in Eritrea and Ethiopia and around the corner Somalia. Djibouti is a potential WW flashpoint. That China AND Japan have their only overseas naval bases there, highlights just how important this trade route remains. (Around Africa is still costly and takes too long.)
Peter when are you going to do a report about the homeless all over the us in Los Angeles, Oakland, San Francisco, Chicago, New York city, Boston, Atlanta, Dallas, Fort worth, Houston, Austin, Denver, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Gary Indiana,....
He won't. That's not his function.
Even if EUV is purchased, advanced chips cannot be mass-produced with a high yield rate.
EUV uses TSMC's wet technology, which was developed at F12b, TSMC's Hsinchu headquarters.
TSMC modified the purchased EUV and redesigned the reflective structure to increase the reflectivity from 2% to 3% and increase the efficiency by 50%.
TSMC's dry EUV mask cleaning technology reduces exposure to dust particles from hundreds to single digits per 10,000 wafers, a 99% reduction in dust ratios.
ASML's latest EUV light source output power is 350W, but TSMC has begun using its own improved 350W EUV in 2020.
With friends like Saudi Arabia, who needs enemies?
The term is frenemies.
everyone in the world ironically says the same about you
@@Testimony4644
"everyone in the 3rd world ironically says the same about you"
There, fixed.
@@mikegoodie7905 Well then it'd also be the United States referring to itself, which wouldn't' make sense.
Things can't be good when every UA-cam clip starts with an "oh sh*t" expression on Peter's face in every thumbnail🫢
The world is changing though. His analysis is based on when there were no rivalries.
First from Al Hasa, Saudi Arabia
i love saudi!
Show us your mountain streams.
@@JohnnyT-fw9cu Literally a slave state. You ok with that?
@@ivancho5854 you been?
@@IwishiwasanoscarmeyerweinerIt's a massive oasis. Mountains more in the west.
"If you take away the oil all you have is a penchant for domestic violence"👌👌👌 Pete you were in rare form with that one!!!🤣🤣🤣
History starts again...
History starts every dag because it is the present - tomorrow.
History. It’s whats for dinner.
@tobias7104 you misunderstand...i meant the hiatus due to the power of the west. Old powers will reassert.
@@Iwishiwasanoscarmeyerweiner In other words - leftovers 😀
We can never forgive the Royal House of Saud and their involvement in 9/11.
It's literally the zionists.... IsraHELL.