What Does the Future Hold for Taiwan and Semiconductors? || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубліковано 22 вер 2024
- Taiwan has positioned itself as the dominant player in the semiconductor industry, but what would happen if a conflict with China broke out? Well, if semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities are top of mind, than sure, this should be of concern (but you should also be worried about the thousands of companies and locations that are nowhere near Taiwan that make up the vast bulk of the supply chain).
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#taiwan #semiconductor #tsmc #intel
Peter is discussing two separate semiconductor projects in the video; the Foxconn project in Wisconsin, but also TSMC projects in Arizona that have been faced with significant delays and setbacks. We apologize for any confusion, and appreciate the engagement. -ZoG
It is a bogus assumption that US will "defend" Taiwan when the Chinese Civil War resumes. Even if Taiwan is the ONLY SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCER in the world, which it is NOT, US won't risk a war with China. Let's just cut the crap and cut the pretend. Don't come up with BS and run with BS.
Someone needs to start a channel to combat the endless flood of B.S. and misinformation from Zeihan. It is shocking how many people buy the parade of B.S. from this establishment schill.
Foxconn is not a semiconductor manufacturer. They are supposed to produce LED panels for displays and TVs in Wisconsin.
How in the heck did the USA not take the lead on semiconductor manufacturing?
@@ZeihanonGeopolitics yep.
While They/Them just tried to assassinate Trump.
Again.
With or without semiconductor, Taiwan sits in the middle of the FIRST ISLAND CHAIN. Unless the U.S. is willing to concede this containment line to China and thus enable China to become the new hegemon in the Western Pacific, it must defend Taiwan. Case in point, Taiwan only became a semiconductor powerhouse in the past 30 years, but the U.S. has been defending the island for 7 decades!
Exactly. To me semiconductor is like a convenient "excuse", because geopolitical is too cold blood (or perhaps ideological?) to some.
@@catchen0422very true.
Can't agree more.
I am an American that came to Taiwan as an employee for TSMC. There are a lot of reasons they want to have fabs in other countries but an oft overlooked one is that they have simply exhausted the expertise of the island. There are only so many people in Taiwan. It's difficult to get the talent they need to keep building fabs at the breakneck pace they have been moving at. I'm also a former employee of Intel, and as someone that has worked for both companies, I sincerely hope for the demise of intel. They are pure evil. Intel does not care one squat about making good silicon. They only care about how much money they can extract from it. If Intel is ever a semiconductor leader again, it will be bad news for the world of computing.
Sounds like someone didn't have a good time at Intel, but it's still just a big business with all sorts of people in it. I have a hard time, believing they corralled all the evil ones, and wrote an evil business plan..................
@@ddoppster I would defer to experience over your generalized speculation
@@2023_GJDamn. What should I get now, AMD?
Yankee go home and stop poking your nose in other's countries business !
Thank you for the insight. I am not surprised
Gotta correct Peter on one thing, it was foxconn that promised to go to Wisconsin, not tsmc
There are a few errors in this video honestly. TSMC Arizona has also begun production and the fab is a carbon copy of the mini fabs they have in Taiwan. They're working on ramping and building phase 2 now. As for Intel they have multiple U.S Fabs that are going to be manufacturing 18a 2 new fabs in Arizona and a 3rd in Ohio.
@@TheVoiceTalk Errors of flat out WRONG?
@@meintingles4396 does it matter?
@@TheVoiceTalk Yes. It matters if the information someone delivers is correct or incorrect...
he doesn't know the differences.
Peter's in Mordor.
He just simply walked into it too.
Mordor with snow and ice patches, clear lakes, no fumaroles or sulphur vents, and a clear blue sky?? I don't see it................
Well much of his analysis is fantasy land so only fair he does some hiking there as well.
Lol
So in ruzzia?
Hi from Taiwan
Hi from California.
Hi from Australia.
Where are you? I'm in Zhongli
Hi from Israel
🇮🇱❤🇹🇼
Hi from NC
The Wisconsin plant wasn’t TSMC, it’s Foxconn company.
TSMC build the plan in Arizona progress so slow it because a local problems .
TSMC build a plan in Japan progress is fast and it is already finish, it’s because of different government & Local builder the way they conduct business is different.
Peter made a big mistake. The deal with Trump is from Foxconn, not TSMC. TSMC never reneged on their deal, except for possibly delays. Foxconn is the subcontractor of Apple. Foxconn and TSMC are worlds apart in technological expertise.
In case you haven’t noticed, Peter is a dyed in the wool democrat. He has incurable TDS.
He's a shill for the Elites...he has to get those digs in when he can.
and the other point is that the latest leading edge litho machine from ASML was supposed to be going to TSMC, but due to American pressure, ASML allowed Intel to jump to the front of the line. If you can't beat 'em, push 'em back
It's probable that in 4 or 5 year's time when the US is producing high end chips but at a higher cost, the US government will impose tariffs on foreign chips. If you can't beat 'em, tax 'em!.
the fact is that while the semiconductor industry comprises of multiple suppliers as the hiker mentioned, I wish he went into the reasons why TSMC produces 90% of the world's high end chips despite the fact that Sth Korea, China, Japan, the US and other countries have basically the same tech and machinery but are unable to.
Come on, he’s a CIA/dem plant.
TSMC will be fine, Japan still sells cars worldwide.
This conversation is wild. I'm driving right behind an ASML machine on a trailer being delivered to the TSMC plant in Phoenix just a few days ago (live about 15 minutes from there). I know a QC/Inspector on site. They are not tearing anything down ... there are some real quality issues with the Taiwanese workers. Evidently, safety is not as big of a deal in Taiwan. The US inspectors are enforcing code compliance and that is why some things are going slower - TSMC is pissed that things are taking so long in fact. TSMC isn't stalling - but complaining about slow in order to leverage more H1Bs.
This is exactly what I have been hearing as well. My buddy was a crane operator that did some work there, his whole company pulled out because of how badly the Taiwanese were managing it + safety concerns
Slava TSMC 🇹🇼 Geroyam TAIWANese 🦾
To be fair, It is not that Taiwan lacked safety, Taiwanese government had 30 years to optimize inspections and approval process for every generation of the factory. US has fewer fabs and spread across different states and each has different requirements and workflows. Unlike others, I don’t see this as a cultural difference or even racism. TSMC has been involved with local communities in Taiwan for many years and has been instrumental in coordinating recovery efforts during natural disasters. That trust was earned over many years of hard work. Skepticism is expected when a new vendor is coming into town with ambitious goals.
@@winst2000 This has very little to do with it being a fab. The building construction is typical building construction. The people supervising the project weren't used to US laws/regs, so they really struggled with that. They also brought in thousands of Taiwanese / Chinese workers and the language barrier was a massive issue. They may have safety standards over there, but they aren't used to OSHA rules. My buddies company walked off the job over safety
That's... probably something you shouldn't have disclosed. If it is true, and your kid indeed works there, he can be summarily dismissed and sued for disclosing confidential information. Hopefully you used VPN, otherwise your house address is written in your comment directly...
Oh joy we are depending on Intel, the Boeing of semiconductor manufacturers.
They were the leader until they got non Engineering management .
@@ctuna2011Yeah and now they're falling apart, have been for awhile now and yet they're still getting worse by the day. And let's be honest when they were the industry leader they nearly stagnated technological advancement for a decade in their field so they could milk the public for money
excellent analogy
@landontesar3070 No its not. Intel is problematic, yes but their engineering and Chips are still pretty good. They're just moderately less performant than the competition.
Oh Snap!😂
That's brutal.
Actually that tsmc line in arizona is functioning at full speed now.
The success of TSMC is that there is large number of skilled Taiwanese engineers willing to work VERY LONG hours to make the production rate. It is their Bread and Butter. So, you really cannot just set up a factory in US and assume it will work out.
So Like 40 hours in office then….i quit
I'm in the US in tech. Everybody around is overtiming, stays long nights and working probably over 60 hours.
People also work hard here, what you are saying is not an issue at all. Just give people good salary and you will get a lot of people willing to overtime.
@@my-curiosity The TSMC factory in US has been set up for over a year. No productivity yet.
You are absolutely right. SG&A would be ten folds plus compared to Taiwan, not 2x or 3x, but 10!
Please explain why Koreans and Japanese, whose work attitudes are similar to those in Taiwan, cannot manufacture advanced chips.
Main problem with TSMC fabs in Phoenix are the differences in work culture, Peter.
Also, not sure you been keeping up on the news but Intel undergoing massive challenges. So much so, that there is talk of them selling their fabs.
Came into the comments to say this. The US work culture is very different than Taiwan and this has caused significant slow downs in all aspects of the new fab in Phoenix.
Never been to the US but Peters backdrops always look spectacular!
America is blessed with beautiful geography.. I'm on the other side of the USA and it's beautiful in a different way
A good portion are in Colorado, and another large portion are not in the U.S.
That's because peter is actually a professional hiker who moonlights as a geopolitical strategist😅
@@420prole Hello from Australia!
Watch Metal Leo to see the real Blue City DNC American reality, “Gone Now” (brick and mortar stores) “For Lease”, “Good Luck With That”.
TSMC has repeatedly complained of environmental studies, labor, inspectors. I’m not sure this delay is all on them.
That wouldn't surprise me one bit. I grew up in California. There's a point at which enforcement of any government code goes from being for the good of the environment or for safety or for building quality or what-have-you to being a squeeze for money, or even being downright obstructionist.
Hey from a Dutch guy in Taiwan.TSMC always made good use of cheap labor for the labor-intensive manufacturing processes. That's how it became attractive for American companies to outsource chip manufacture to Taiwan in the first place. My partner is a Filipina who works at ASE. There's literally thousands of Filipinos working at the facility in Taoyuan. So, building facilities in high-labor cost USA makes no sense. I believe there are some plans in Mexico as well, and they seem more viable... That way manufature would be friendshored and closer to home for US interests.
Why doesn't the US adopt the same type of contract labor regulations that many countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Middle East etc have...instead of relying on unregulated border jumpers for illegal cheap labor. Hundreds of thousands of workers from Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines work in factories, farms and on construction sites in Taiwan for 3 or 4 year contracts (then fly home) ....and the system works very well and is mutually beneficial.
aint all industries over time automatizing, same with chip manufacturing... hardly any humans in processing steps in fab. ASE works in bit different domain. how does that look in 2024 for highend chips? (I saw some guy founded sock factory in US as could buy all automatized equipment nowadays so handful of people can manufacture millions of socks per week)
I don't see this as the argument at all, the fab facilities being built in the US and elsewhere aren't for cost. They're for national security. The entirety of the technology that's being used and developed for the future relies on the chip manufacturing. The pandemic showed the flaws of the globalized market, and the risks that each country faces when the logistics and politics of that supply chain is disrupted. All of that on top of the fact that Taiwan is pretty much the only fabrication company that can manufacture the high end chips, and it being Taiwan, is under constant threat from China. The U.S. is funding the construction of all the facilities under the CHIPs act for all those reasons, not to save on cost.
@@GreenIslandWoodworksthe challenge is that the US is huge compared to these small countries. Many decades ago when I lived in the US I had a friend who was with the NSA and I asked him why border security is such an important focus in the US. His reply was “if I gave you a 24 hour head start could I ever find you again if you didn’t want to be found”. That is the challenge the US has. Its sheer size and the opportunities to disappear into thin air make it difficult to track immigrants due to high mobility. Smaller countries with integrated societies where neighbours know each other well ensure that immigrants don’t have a place to hide.
@@GreenIslandWoodworks Easy. Anything involving US immigration is "off-limits". Neither side wants to "solve the problem". Common-sense ideas are ignored. The ONLY way Trump gets elected is if immigration goes unsolved.
Greetings from Taipei. Peter didn't mention that Nvidia is also planning to join the Japanese consortium in Hokkaido (Rapidus). And Nvidia is basically a US company run by Taiwanese. Also ironically, the heads of Nvidia and AMD are cousins.
Edit: and Jensen Huang of Nvidia did mention this year about possibly setting up an HQ in Taiwan.
@5anjuro
It would interesting to see their family Christmas gathering. 😂
@@navinadv It'll probably be something from an Asianometry channel video, the who is who of the tech sector. The Asianometry dude is also based in Taiwan.
Slava TSMC 🇹🇼
If you 💚 hiking, come to Taiwan🇹🇼.
Oh yeah, it is. It's gorgeous, especially the mountains. 🫶
I prefer not to have to schedule my hikes weeks in advance
Think you are confusing Foxcomm with TSMC in part of your thought
I love that Zeihan uploads videos in the early morning
It seems that Peter has a lot wrong here. Makes me question a lot of his other takes...
Elaborate
TSMC is also planning to build a fab plant in German too according to the news.
They are already building the plant, construction officially started about 10 days ago. There was a big ceremony and everything. There are rumours published in the Handelsblatt (Germany's equivalent to the FT or WSJ) that more Taiwanese semi-conductor companies (other than TSMC) will now follow and relocate to Germany.
and Singapore
@@landontesar3070 Japan as well i think but yeah, you are correct
The Dnipro River is a major barrier in the Russia Ukraine war that both sides can't cross without getting slaughtered. The river is 1.2km at its widest. It will be interesting to see how China crosses the 180 km Taiwan strait without getting the PLA obliterated
China and Russia are two very different militaries.
China doesn't want Taiwan because of semiconductors or any other product it wants Taiwan because of the Taiwan straits. If it owns that then it controls the shipping thru the straits at a cost to the shippers
@@clarencebennett3624China doesn't care about any country's commercial shipping through the straight. China will never allow Taiwan to formally declare independence because then there will be a US military base on it.
@@clarencebennett3624 I dont see how that makes any sense. Why would China add to the costs for its own exporting? Now, if someone like the Houthis could magically gain control of it, that’s different.
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Hi from Taiwan😃🥰
I worked in electronics manufacturing in the USA from the 1990’s to 2018. The success or failure of any plant I was in hinged on the management and if they were completely dedicated to 6 sigma and Lean Manufacturing the start. Poor management spent their time fighting, socializing, going to meetings, talking on the phone, or taking 3 hour lunches. If you do not see all of the managers on the floor every day then trouble is on the way.
Totally agree.
Wait a minute! Managers are supposed to do their jobs?
Isn’t Boeing 6 Sigma?
No, Peter, the silicon…
EDIT because commenters are getting so confused about this point!
In the industry, the molten silicon (Si) that will be made into chips is handled in cauldrons (big bowls) made of silicon dioxide (SiO2).
The entire world uses cauldrons made of SiO2 from Spruce Pine NC, because the highest grade SiO2 from there requires very little processing to be ultra-pure enough for cauldrons.
But the Si that will be made into chips is expensively extracted from less pure SiO2 that comes from dozens of places all over the world, including NC.
So Peter is quite incorrect when he says, “…the silicon for the chips all comes from NC.” It’s the silicon dioxide from which the cauldrons are made that comes almost exclusively from NC. Silicon for the chips is extracted from silicon dioxide that can come from almost anywhere.
thats interesting. i wonder where do they get the silicon from
@@AA-tb4ffThe aforementioned cauldrons. OP’s is a very pedantic comment.
@@jbtechcon7434 Google says silicon. Spruce Pine Mining District in North Carolina contains high purity quartz which is used in the manufacture of silicon for integrated circuits.
@@ronlevin7194 No, you're just dense. For everyone else, the Si that goes into the semiconductors comes from many global sources. That Si is handled in cauldrons made of ultra-pure Si02, nearly all of which comes from Spruce Pine, North Carolina.
@@AA-tb4ff Many global sources produce adequate silicon. It's only the silicon dioxide used to make the cauldrons that comes from one source in North Carolina. You could get it from inferior sources, but it would require more expensive purification. Some idiot on this thread called my comment above pedantic because he doesn't seem to know what cauldrons are.
My 1976 Cadillac has no chips and everything works fine except the dash clock. So for that reason I can understand why chips are so necessary. Tic tock I'll use my wrist watch. Sad as it is so inconvenient!
Tell me you can't differentiate between silicon and silicon dioxide without telling me you can't...
My brother used to build semiconductor factories until he passed away a couple of years ago.
It wasn't TSMC that supposes to build a facility in Wisconsin. It was Foxconn. Also, TSMC got a fab running in Japan in two years so they weren't stalling. You have your facts wrong and wrong.
He said they’re stalling in Arizona.
@@j.benjamin3782 But they aren't. The CEO said he is getting the fab up and running ASAP. The reason why it is delayed is that the State insists on using US workers to build the whole place but US workers have to be trained on building a fab that cannot tolerate dusts. The Taiwanese workers have the know hows and now they have to transfer the tech to the US workers before they can build the fab. Japan used quite a few Taiwanese workers to build the fab, and they got done in 2 years. There is no reason for the State to insist on using US workers because there is a big shortages with the housing boom. The thing is delay mostly due to US politics. Peter just spewed his mouth without any research.
@@蘇喬瑟夫 they are stalin', the inauguration date is 2030-2040.
@@蘇喬瑟夫 Could they be stalling in Arizona but not in Japan?
@@Luvurenemy Very unlikely. TSMC is a publically owned company where the vast marjority of shares are owned by the wall street, like 90%. So it has been said by people that TSMC is a US company located in Taiwan. The executives have to answer to the shareholders. Foxconn is much different where the majority of shares were own by one person. TSMC is also much diffrerent from Samsung which is mostly owned by Korean government.
Love this man’s passion for geopolitics and deep dives.
Peter obviously has not dealt with Asians much. Having a signed ‘deal’ of any sort is just the beginning of negotiations.
I am a Taiwanese tech stock investor in TW, the news published over general public are TSMC will keep latest NM production and research in TW as they did for decades, this strategy let TSMC becomes leader in the industry today. The plant in AZ will be least cost-effective compares to the one in Japan and Germany, but it can acts as assurance for US miliarty.
It's a staggeringly vulnerable and critical strategic resource. The Chips act is the first step but the defense work has to be more robust.
Incorrect. TSMC is building in Japan, Germany AND in Arizona. Foxconn was the company promised to build a factory in Wisconsin, a completely different company. While Foxconn is also a Taiwanese company, majority of its operation is in China, and it CEO is has had political aspirations, he even ran for presidency in Taiwan.
You'd be amazed at how much and how fast TSMC is building in Taiwan.
I would not bet 5 cents on Intel coming through
Intel has a history lately of talking big and delivering small.
@@GreenIslandWoodworks Its a Business cultural problem. Think Boeing quality, and NVIDIA innovation.
This is probably the dumbest take imaginable. Just because there are other aspects of the supply chain in other countries does not mean that Taiwan is not a choke point and has NOTHING to do with their government leveraging its critical importance in ensuring the US does not abandoned them to China. Of course, they are and TMSC drags their feet and resists building overseas fabs as much as they can possibly get away with without said countries nationalizing their own production.
"Japan would likely be there before the United States" maybe more research needs to be done in this area I'm not sure that is an accurate statement.
Agreed. The Japanese people claim to be so opposed to war that it seems cowardly at times. But whether that would affect the Japanese state's decision making is questionable.
Need to remember that Abe amended the Article 9 back in mid-2010s, IIRC basically giving JSDF a blanket permission to deploy military force more proactively if the deployment is in interest of Japan`s defense, which came after with the rise of rhetorics from China about Senkaku Islands, which is about halfway from Okinawa to Taiwan.
This also paved the way for JSDF to develop their own amphibious offensive capability to retake any captured islands instead of relying on USN/ USMC to do the bulk of the fighting and JMSDF participation in the NATO-led anti piracy ops in Indian Ocean from mid-2010s onward.
That statement is subject to the 7th Fleet`s CVBG availability at the declaration of war, so JMSDF could be the first one responding to Taiwan invasion by China IN FORCE with the excuse of defending Japanese sovereign waters if for some reason 7th Fleet`s carrier group isn`t close enough to.
japan is in the neigborhood-the US may not have ships as close because of other hotspots/commitmenrts say North Korean and he is implying Japan might be more concerned than the US
@@bigsky8746 Asian people remember what Japan did. Maybe not the Philippines cause they are outliers and are suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
US has no base in Phillipines?
There is a certain romance in thinking that you hold an industry that is so key to the world, that you're protected from invasion, but I don't think anyone is really that naive. Taiwan might lose its edge one day. A competitor and alternative might arise. The supply chain might reform. It's great to have the silicon shield now, but foolish to believe it will last forever.
Instead, what Taiwan is actually relying on is its location. As long as there is any desire to contain China, Taiwan's geographic position is simply too important to ignore. So tying US aid to semiconductors make for a good story, but ultimately misses the real reason why Taiwan believes US/Japan will come to its aid.
Taiwan is the keystone of the inner ring that contains China.
Will you compare the deals made by TSMC with Germany to those of Japan and the USA?
Not within his capacity . You can tell just by how much facts he got wrong in this vedio
@@尤七弓 At least he can spell "video". If you want to say that Peter is wrong please show some proof, links to articles etc.
That would imply economic development in Germany, a stretch for Peter to acknowledge
Always informative and great backgrounds 👍
Informative to simpletons I guess. 😂
@bigmikeh5827 Don't mind this guy, he's a troll. 🙂
full of lies actually
I hope that he collected enough information for what he talked about.
Well after building costruction and equipment mounted, just cleaning the air, pumping it and replacing it with gas mixtures across processing stages connecting lines can take months.
Ah.
Intel has currently bigger Problems.
@TeIe-granm-ZeihanonGeopolitics nope
TSMC has successfully achieved production yields at its Fab 21 Arizona facility similar to those at its fabs in Taiwan,
"Japan will get there first" but the US is already there and have been for decades.
predicting be hard, especially about the future.
... the US is already there... with what, and where exactly?
If by "there" you mean sub 10nm that is not true at all. It is almost all Taiwan with a bit of South Korea. Intel promised but never really delivered 7nm and there are a lot of signs Intel 18a is completely broken with Broadcom indicating it has failed quality checks.
I think the catch there will be "Japan will get there first IN FORCE", with worst case scenario will likely have the CVBG being chopped elsewhere when the war in Taiwan starts, forcing the US to rely on JSDF to hold the line and help out ROCN for a week or two while USAF and USN muster strength in East Asian theater.
JMSDF also have ports in Kobe and Maizuru, which is closer to Taiwan than USN in Yokosuka, and given Japan`s more domestically-oriented defense policy, that means JMSDF will have most of their strength available in the region, particularly in submarine force.
@@judewarner1536 7th Fleet down at Yokosuka, PACAF down at Misawa and Okinawa, Marines based in Okinawa and Iwakuni.
Never been to Yosemite. Raised in MS but born in Gunnison Colorado. My parents took me to visit my birthplace when I was 12 in June but there was literally a blizzard and we couldn't get over Monarch's Pass.
The Zircon (sand) that is used in semiconductors comes from Australia, mainly Western Australia.
The US is having to reimport cutting-edge chip manufacturing technology, among others, because for the last 70 years, corporations have been exporting American industry, jobs and technology to anywhere in the world they can save a buck.
The result: America is now service industry based and is hypersensitive to any downturn in the economy. The US can no longer manufacture and export its way out of recession. Only the Democrats understand this, which is why there is a $$1Trillion+ Infrastructure Bill and reshoring of manufactures from China.
Um, dude, Trump was screaming about this in 2016, actually even before he ran for office, and he tried to do something, but the Dems and some of the establishment Republicans kept stopping or slow-walking many of his efforts. The CHIPS act is nice, but it hasn't been as successful as many on both sides have hoped.
The US didn't really export it in this case so much as chose not to compete. The Taiwanese saw an opening in the market and got their initial manufacturing technology from a Dutch company, then developed their own expertise. If it was just a matter of cheap labor, China would control this industry.
@@maninredhelm This case is not the whole of lost manufacturing jobs in the USA. You can only sell so many hot dogs and T-shirts at sportsball facilities.
Quality is not measured in nanometers. It is measured by actual quality (failure rates, longevity, etc.). Using the most advanced chip making processes for IoT chips is just plain silly. There are very good applications for the most advanced chip technology, to be sure, but the vast majority of chips and applications do not require these.
Dzień dobry from Poland
Don’t you mean good afternoon for you?
@@psulak02 dzień dobry all day every day
Didn't Peter say about 3 month ago that Interest rates will not be cut for another 5 years or so. I believe it will happen in the next 2-3 days.
It happened today, the Fed cut rates by 0.5% and more to come. The Fed said by 2026 rates will be around 3% and this clown said they will not cut rate for another 5 year. Keep listening to this clown
Checked today and the rates are higher than before the so-called "cut." We shall see.
TSMC has relocated at least 1 facility already. The Samsung facility in west Texas is sort out some glitches with machine operations. Intel is outsourcing some new stuff rather than putting it through one of their local foundries.
Central Texas
For the ask Peter forum: what provinces in what countries are most likely to gain independence soonest?
The Semis are the gold that keeps America interested in protecting Taiwan.
Intel? we're doomed.
Just looking!! Love it. Good briefing.
Peter knowledge of semi con industry is near zero!
Intel is dead 😁
"Hi this is Peter from the outer rim in the Mustafar system"
Saying that "ASML is more advanced than TSMC" is stupid.
ASML provides manufacturing equipment while TSMC is a foundry and chip manufacturer.
I do admire Peter's ability to say anything with confidence though - even when talking about areas that are clearly not his expertise.
He didn’t say that. You are misquoting. He said what TSMC is using.
Intel will just plow the money into stock buy backs, so no worry for TSMC
Intel is wavering in bankruptcy right now.
the level of ignorance about the processes of lithography is frightening, please talk about the implosion of Russia happening tomorrow of the day after please
He doesn't pronounce lithography correctly, so begs scrutiny of the rest of the arguments.
Very interesting comment on semiconductor industry.
Sounds more like Trump negotiated the deal and under Biden they said let's forget about it.
Independent here, Peter tends to have TDS in his videos.
Correct all these contracts are made by Trump. Biden couldn’t put it together a Lego block. and Harris would lose them.
You know we half-ass help Ukraine, we half-ass help Israel, we surrendered in Afghanistan and Iraq, we half-ass respond to the Yemenis and the Iranians and the syrians. Why the hell wouldn't China attack. ... This is the most green light you can ever give a country like China
We won in Iraq, the problem when you install a democracy is that the people have to like you...
As usual - top notch analysis and excellent presentation! Thank you.
😂😂😂😂😂 Simp
@@JJthename55 TIL what simp means. 🙂
It was pedestrian, biased, and ill informed view. “Top notch” is silly.
This is interesting. I've read that supposedly delays to TSMC in AZ where due to work culture differences in USA vs Taiwan, the Taiwanese being unable to wrap there head around US labour laws and labour contracts. That sounded a tiny bit outlandish, tell the truth. Now Peter says that TSMC is stalling and for the time being I'll buy that over the former "explanation".
4:36 Japan has the 2nd most powerful navy in the world?
Came to ask the same question. By what metric is this true? Are we limiting only to allies?
If you count AEGIS destroyers (and use them as a value multiplier) and advanced submarines, then that could be argued. Even more so when F-35B comes online with Izumo and Kaga.
No, it's china
In terms of moving tonneage at a sustained rate across oceans yes.
@MichaelEbenezer-jc4dp No, it's not China. 90% of their navy is a greenwater navy, meaning it can't travel more than 1000 miles off the coast. Japan's navy is an all blue water navy. Japan can protect their supply lines, China can't.
Was Peter ever right on anything concrete ever ?
As much as I value Peter, he absolutely has no clue about semiconductors...
Uuuhhh Peter, TSMC uses ASML’s top level EUV lithographic tech…
Peter has said as much in other videos, someone rewrote the script.
Lets see if Peter can leave his politics out of this video. . . .
Only by being diligent, self-reliant, and adaptable can the Republic of China endure and thrive.
Hello from Australia, we are very far away from everyone. Do you see Australia ramping up in country manufacturing being brought back? if no why? if yes why? We have sent everything oversees so we need to solve the problem by building factories and creating everything that we need. Also what are your thoughts on Australia basically giving away its gas, coal, iron ore, electricity and so forth. Australia does not charge companies fees or taxes that would make our country actually start to get our economy started again. Also Australia we pay huge amounts for electricity and gas, WTF?
Answered in another video. Basically shame on AU for not climbing higher up the value chain. Would have been good to start 20+ years ago but now is also a worthwhile time to start. AU well positioned in the coming/changed economic landscape IF it starts.
The Kumamoto joint venture is ahead of schedule, so of course it will come on line before any US projects
Trump is just such a fool
@@patrickboadu6172 why are you worried about Americans politics? Go focus on your own dump of a country
I love to see Trump Derangement Syndrome. 😂😂
Calm down Ghetto Rat
Oh? As others have pointed out here, the Wisconsin deal began in 2016, before Trump was even in office. Likewise, the Phoenix stuff is all during the Biden Administration, as Trump has been out of office for approaching four years. Both of those were shepherded by Democrats.
Trump is the only chance for getting rid of the shadow government that controls our country.
Lol 4 years? By that time China would have leaped frog everyone in the West in semiconductor and completely self sufficient supply chain.
What a joke!
US was willing to defend Taiwan before semi-conductors and would be willing after. Defending Taiwan isn't mostly about Taiwan.
Before Trump a given ..
I wouldn’t bank on the US for anything these days. Pathetic spineless country.
Japan has the 2nd most power navy in the world since when?
Dude
... TSMC literally uses asml s EUV machines...... Asml is the ONLY supplier.
He knows that, & has said that before (just not in this video).
0:43 he actually said it
It's over 9000!
No views, 17 seconds ago?!
Ha
I'm gonna be the guy to point out the over 9,000 quote.
"Number 1, never ever ever ever ever forget that the semiconductor supply chain has over 9,000 producers..."
Impossible! There's no way that can be right!
I think Peter is counting design companies as producers
Ask Netherlanders they make the machines the make the semiconductors. 🇦🇺
Australia makes nothing. ☝️😂
u mean the Netherlands?
Peak Zeihan aufience comment.
@USandGlobal China has been buying machines for simple chips, Netherlands is not allowed to sell high tec machines to China for obvious reasons.
its the Netherlands not Denmark
Peter didn't mention that the new Intel Lunar Lake 3nm cpu's will be made by TSMC.
Life was better before the silicon chip
*writing this and sending it to the whole world using silicon chips
and rap music.
Time for a nap, grandpa
Salute to your computer.
Hey Peter, it would really help to film on some better equipment regarding sound and video quality.
See, this is the problem with always hating trump: You start forgetting facts.
The The deal to put a factory in wisconsin started around twenty sixteen before trump was in office.
As for phoenix, Well, trump has not been in office for the past three and a half years.In case you haven't noticed.
This isn't pulling the wool over trump's eyes. This is pulling the wool over the u.S government's eyes.
Also... a lot of Phx ers sre hoping for improved property values through this. It makes sense now that it wasnt improving phx but was more of a shell.
There are enough reasons to hate that idiot Trump.
Chips of a myriad of different processes are still in use today. It isn't normally possible to switch chips between processes without a lot of work, or in some cases at all. So if you have a 28nm process for your chip you can't expect to just transition to a 3nm process by shipping the design files to a new 3nm fab. So e.g. having 3nm fabs in the USA is NO security for the hundreds of thousands of devices made on older processes. For example in 2021 14% of TSMC revenue was still on 90nm processes and around 50% was on > 10nm and given that older process devices will typically be a lot cheaper the split in unit volume is even more weighted to older processes.
Thanks Peter.
Well. Americans like wearing clothes and shoes. We do not really produce any of that. We like watching tv. We do not produce any of that. We like consumer electronics. We do not produce much of that. I do not know where we stand on toilets, sinks, and plumbing fixtures. I suspect we still produce kegs and pressurized beverage dispensers. McDonald’s has a bizarre ice cream machine arrangement.
Wow. I envy Peter, who can have nice hiking opportunities in the wild west. Nice!
"Leading candidate is Intel"
I don't think that's gonna happen anytime soon based on their trending business trajectory
Can you do a video on the future of clean Hydrogen and the Native American tribes in Canada please!
Enjoyed the video, but Zeihan always manages to say something which feels like nails on a chalkboard. No one else thinks that Japan has the 2cd most powerful navy in the world, or even the 3rd. Yes, I know that Japan's is "blue water" & China's navy is "green water". But China's goal is just to dominate its neighborhood, so its navy is plenty powerful for that goal.
Great hike. I miss those days.
For those curious about the technology intel is getting from ASML, Peter is probably referencing the high NA EUV
My main concern is how to survive all of these financial and political crisis, especially in light of the US political power scuffle. The government has really called things more difficult for its citizens, and we can't sit back and bear all the consequences of the bad governance.
I'm glad you made this video, I can recall when I was homeless and faced with many things in Life until $75,000 biweekly began rolling in and my Life went from A homeless nobody to a different person with good things to offer!!!!!!❤️
Will the US protect Taiwan if chip manufacturing isn't as important?
Vivek Ramaswamy, the one-time Republican presidential candidate, explicitly said that we shouldn’t bother, but he said it aloud, so it might be utter nonsense and disinformation.