What is Positive EV Sports Betting? (Better than Arbitrage!) (using OddsJam)
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- Опубліковано 22 вер 2024
- 👋🏻 Hey guys! In today's video, I explain what is Plus EV / Positive EV sports betting (sportsbetting) and in the end got banned. I utilise plus EV / positive EV since after trialling many methods, I found it was vastly superior to arbitrage betting and allowed me to make a lot more money. I explain all about +EV betting in this video with some examples and also arbitrage betting examples as well. Hope you guys can find it insightful but please do more research first on positive EV betting and make sure you understand the maths before betting any of your actual money.
🏆 🏆 For those who do want to learn in depth the arbitrage and positive EV strategies I use with real practical examples to help you get started, then you can check out my 5 - part sports betting course over on my website at:
Australia/NZ: shanehuang.com...
USA/Canada: arbitragecamp....
🏆 🏆 For those looking to learn more about risk free arbitrage betting/ positive EV betting in the United States, I would recommend using a odds comparison tool that I mentioned in the video- OddsJam: To get 25% off your first month for OddsJam:
1. Sign up using this link here: bit.ly/3CpjR4B
2. Use the code: SHANE25 for 25% off your 1st month.
If you enjoy this video and want to see more about sports betting, money or university life, please leave a comment down below saying what you would like to see next and any new video ideas are always appreciated!
🙋🏻 Who am I?
My name is Shane and I am an Australian Engineering and Commerce graduate from The University of Sydney and will be becoming a full time quantitative trader soon. This channel is dedicated to mathematics, arbitrage sports betting, and personal finance. I hope you can find this useful! Enjoy!
Website: shanehuang.com...
Instagram: / shanehuang88
Free Betting Discord Group: / discord
✌️ Remember to SUBSCRIBE! See you in the next one! / shanehuang88
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: Shane Huang receives cash compensation from OddsJam and for sponsored advertising materials. Shane Huang receives affiliate commissions from partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This video is not gambling/ investment advice - while the strategies and math I teach and the tools recommended will provide an advantage, there is still user error and luck involved when it comes to betting which can lead to losses.
These videos are for educational purposes only and I am not guaranteeing any gains or losses from using the betting methods I talk about.
🏆 🏆 For those who do want to learn the trade and make money betting yourselves (like a pro trader) using positive EV betting, then you can check out my 5 - part sports betting course over on my website at:
Australia/NZ: shanehuang.com.au/course/
USA/Canada: arbitragecamp.com/usa-course/
Would it work for people from Europe?
If the EV betting so successful, what is the point of charging people on courses? Does it mean betting alone the risk reward doesn’t justify
This doesn't make sense if a team draw you lose that's rubbish
Im from south Africa how can access these
"Speculation" will always yield more than "arbitrage" but the key difference is you cannot fully compound via positive EV or any sort of betting/trading with probabilities as there's always risk, no matter how small... hence you cannot go all in and efficiently compound all your capital. Unlike risk free arbitrage
FACTSSSSS it is unfair to use the same bet amount in an EV bet vs a risk free ARB. You can put up as much as you like in an ARB bet b/c there is no risk in an EV if you put up your bankroll you will be eaten alive by variance. It is very obvious a $3 Arb bet is lower than $3 EV bet. But if $3 is your whole bankroll to make it apples to apple you should be betting 1% of $3 or 3 cents... then see who has the higher EV.
There is a way if you are disciplined and you stake third of your roll and stick to the third of the roll even if you are losing or winning
I just checked the website he promotes, it literally says they have lost 5k this month with an expected 9k bankroll, the risk is way too high even though their bets are of 100-200, like you say here, this is not comparable to arb for us without tons and tons of money to throw at it
@@libertymouth68261/3 is way too much
@@libertymouth6826 bye after 3 consecutive losses which is inevitable soon
It sounds like it may be beneficial for new bettors to start with arbitrage betting to build a substantial bankroll, then moving to EV betting when you have enough cash to weather the losses you may get with EV betting.
@@TheMezidon2008😂😂bro
how long should you bet with EV to start gaining some profit?
Its the other way around, sure betting requires a large bankroll while value betting doesnt.
@@truthdetective4534meh I think they both require decent size bankrolls as you have to place upwards of 30-50 parlays each day for ev if you want to start making real money
youll banned for arbitrage before you move to ev. ask me how I know
It is unfair to use the same bet amount in an EV bet vs a risk free ARB. You can put up as much as you like in an ARB bet b/c there is no risk in an EV if you put up your bankroll you will be eaten alive by variance. It is very obvious a $3 Arb bet is lower than $3 EV bet. But if $3 is your whole bankroll to make it apples to apple you should be betting 1% of $3 or 3 cents... then see who has the higher EV.
Good point
You nailed it man
That's where bankroll management comes into play. Card counters use this in blackjack as they are +EV style players, playing with usually at best 2-3% edge.
I understand your point saying that it makes no sense for an arbitrage bettor to only risk $3 in the same way as an EV bettor but it was for comparing numbers. The idea is just that +EV lets you play for more theoretical profit for a smaller bet amount
The whole point of it was to say that this is for the long run, assuming you place many bets over time the profits will be far greater. He's not saying throw your entire savings into 1 bet like you might do with ARB, but rather saying if you consistently use this method you're mathematically almost completely guaranteed to make much larger profits.
Like in the quarter example. each time you win a $3 bet on heads you have $9 meaning you can make 3 more bets again with that and assuming the odds are 50/50 since you have 3 flips now you can safely assume at least one of those will be another heads since the probability of a coin landing the same 3 times in a row is only 12.25%. If one of those 3 flips is another head you made profit and mathematically the profit margin outweighs the potential losing so if you flipped the coin 1,000 times the profits of the wins outweighs the losses of all the times it hit tails. So ev betting isn't meant to dump your whole account into at once, but assumes that if you have enough money to take a few hits and do more bets over time the profits make up for the losses by a higher degree than the amount of profit ARB's with the same odds would make.
If you only have a small ammount to start with then of course go for ARB where you can safely cash in small wins. But once you have enough saved up money that you can place many bets often and taking some of them as losses then the winnings in those overall outweigh the times you lost over time😊
Hope that kinda clears it up. He addressed all that in the vid he flat out says Arbs are the safe option but mathematically +ev turns a greater profit over time. Especially when you have enough money that you have limits on the ammount you can bet and you want to go higher that's when arbs fall off they plateu at that point and can't really make much more but that's the point where +ev takes off and keeps pulling in the greater profit over time
wait til the bookies banned u bro
I’ve been down this path and there’s a couple of extra points you should’ve raised? 1. Opening accounts with overseas bookies is risky, as a lot are tax haven based. Firstly you lose on currency exchange rates just getting your money in. 2. Try getting your money out, time delays are part and parcel. 3. You can’t complain to the ACCC if they rip you off. 4. Getting your bet on in time takes time. You have to log in find the match, which can take a few minutes, only to find that the odds have changed. 5. Overseas matches are in another time zone and you find yourself being up all sorts of hours. Sounds good in theory, but in the end I gave it away, as too much hassle and added risk IMHO
How did u register for the bets? Most of them ask for confirmation on numbers and such to make an account
@@phulen7681 You need to apply online to each bookmaker and verify your age and transfer money. 1 AUD only buys USD$0.7. you also lose on currency exchange in and out. That’s 4-5% down the drain. Do a check on where the bookmakers are licensed? A lot are based in a tax free haven, where if they decide not to pay you back, good luck thinking some law is going to help you recover your money. Think of it this way? If you knew you were onto a easy money making betting scheme, would you tell anyone your methods? These mobs flogging these schemes get affiliate link kickbacks from the odds providers and youtube pays them if they get enough subscribers.
@@pauleasther I just bet on local sites and never tried going on outside sites, appreciate the heads up
@@pauleasther can you still arbotrage bet on only australian sites ??
@@soldurham1351 Not for very long, as they are a wake up to Arbing, and I’m sure they share info on accounts. Their algorithms are pretty smart and know what to look for? Once they even suspect you’re Arbing they reduce the amount you can place. The betting blogs are filled with stories of accounts being closed.
Unfortunately we cannot do this here in Germany as the bet plattforms add 5% betting tax (that they have to pay) to the odds, which means one has to find a +5% bet just to break even.
dont pay the taxes
@@Tashyncho-Sapa-CEKTAHT it gets automatically taken when you win your bet
Irgendwie muss die Regierung ja noch an den Spielsüchtigen verdienen
In Poland it's 12%.. so it doesn't have sense at all in UE
yep, these 5% hurt
As someone who has tried to play safer bets where the odds may be 1.50 vs 2.50 for example it may as well be a 50/50 coin toss because every time I pick they favourite they tend to lose 😂
I've been doing something similar with futures for a decade. I only take spots that are +10% ev or greater. I've been doing everything by hand the entire time. Its very time consuming but well worth it when you find the right spots and can get large amounts down. Some books will limit you after a while though.
I'd definitely love to know more about this. How often do you get such spots?
Do you have a group chat discussion of some sort? I’m very into the topic and getting into doing the work myself would love to hear more always a good idea to bounce ideas around.
I don't have a specific group chat or anything for it. Once a spot comes up I play it big and then if the line hasn't moved I tell friends about the spot afterwards and they will play it. I'm probably not looking to give away the exact formula because if there are many more people doing what I'm doing and betting big the books will adjust and the spots will disappear. I have no problem adding more people to the group I notify after I place my bets. You'll need to have accounts at just about all major books, but there are 3 that I find make the most mistakes.
Not often. I make less than 20 bets per year. They are all big though.
@@stevewickline1525 I would love to be included into your group, sounds like u are a very calculated individual. Please get back to me would love to hear more
You didnt really mention the main disadvantage of EV betting which is that you need to know the probabilities. And if you have wrong estimations of those probabilities your EV betting strategy will not work. For Arbitrage betting however, you do not need to know the probabilities
It’d be interesting to hear you apply positive ev to prize picks.
but outcomes of sports events dont have predetermined probabilities.. so how can EV be calculated?
I'm a day trader, and I was interested in learning about how the casinos make money. This explanation of EV makes so much sense and I've used the calculation to determine if my trading edge will be profitable in the long term or not with my back testing data (which it is cuz it had good positive EV) . Thank you!
Can you put me on bro? Just came up on some sports betting cash
@@Insta_trixocity i dont sports bet i day trade
@@jamescurley8559 ahh okay never heard of it, are the EV results similar to sports or better over at day trading?
@@Insta_trixocity a lot better in day trading. Even though the markets are complex and manipulated, you can control for your risk reward so that you don't need a high win rate to be wicked profitable. With my system, I only win 30-40% of the time but can pull in 10-20% portfolio growth a month because my risk/reward is so high.
Bro kindly send me your appline so I can learn more about day trading
The problem you have if you don't hedge is that your bankroll could be completely eliminated if you have a run against you. Just because you get 500 out of 1000 in long term odds that doesn't mean that you could go 10,000 without getting a tails result. That would destroy your capital.
When your odds are not 50/50 like a coin toss, your numbers can look much worse than what was shown. I’d be interested to see the distribution of the odds of the positive EV opportunities. Are they normally distributed around 0.5? That’s what this video implies…
It’s a terrible example as there will never ever exist a market like this as nobody, anywhere in the world will give you 3/1 for what is an even money shot. Scraping 10p in the £ is a result.
That is an extreme example but formula remains the same, as long as you’re placing a large group of bets you’ll be in the green
Yes exactly I was wondering the same. Sports games are not a coin toss. This is all calculated under the assumption that it is 50/50
@@DizzyNeko It's not under the assumption taht it is 50/50 you misunderstood.
@@DizzyNeko It's not that the game itself is a coin toss, but the odds are set to drive the total bets placed to be 50/50. The sports book isn't in the business of gambling, they are in the business of being a middleman and taking a rake.
Nothing is beats pure arbritage from a financial reward/risk perspectove
From his videos it seems that bookies ban arbitrage betters faster.
I've many arbitrage bettors but be assured they can always give you a whole bunch of ideas on it but one thing for sure they'll never show you how and on what markets to place the bets they claim
Who can help me with arbitrate games
They do show you what markets to bet, how much to bet on each team and what you'll win.
That's becuase it'd just make it harder for them.
Why would they give away their edge?
Without using OddsJam, how would you go about to find these positive EV bets? Do you spend hours looking around for mispriced odds manually? Are there specific events that are more prone to being mispriced?
You can’t do this manually. Either you need to buy access or scrape and compare odds with a program you build.
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@@adamweah8037 Where you in the last tesla conference in Baltimore ? Where did you meet this lady
@@elliotwilson8874 No, i was not , i found her in a business Magazine where she was featured and i reached out to her afterwards she has since provided entry and exit on the securities i focus on . You can look her name up online if you care supervision i basically follow her trade pattern and havent regretted doing so
@@BrianMMO aye? u can compare soft bkmaker odds against the exchanges
If you calculate drawdown EV has more drawdown that means cant use full capital for compound. In the long run arbitrage still can better because of low drawdown
Would like to see a simulation where optimal size bet theory (proven by Adam Kuckarski) would be applied in this scenario with multiple coin tosses. Becuase in the arbitrage situation you would allways be allowed to bet your full bankrole and bet bigger and bigger since you will never lose, but you would have to limited your % bankrole bet when you place your bet on only the head.
I'm a bot developer and Engineer by profession and I've been researching a while on arbitrage betting as I hope to commence a personal project on this soon. Your videos have been very insightful. I do think using an automated system that can identify these opportunities, do the calculations and place the bets all in a few seconds would be a lot helpful. However, I'm still a bit skeptical about making this process entirely automated. Would love to know your thoughts on this
If you actually have a stable job and are doing it on the side with the automated system, then i don't think it would hurt to risk 100$ trying it out (but i would try to setup a local test system first)
I would be careful about automating anything that would place bets without my manual approval. A single bug could cause you to lose everything if your bot goes rogue. Otherwise it is a good idea, you will be faster and it takes less time.
@@staywithmesenpai Ah, yes. Definitely gonna be testing the whole process for a reasonable period of time before putting in anything significant. Thanks for your input
@@ShaneHuang88 Oh yea. You're right shane. That's the main reason behind my skepticism but I'd setup a test phase for it with a minimal amount across the bookmakers before actually putting anything significant. Hopefully, it'll be worth it
I am a Software Engineer who played with this idea for a while, however from what I have seen, even Pinnacle states that botting is not allowed. Although I have not tried it but I guess your bot would receive a captcha some day and your account would get closed. Any experience on this by somebody?
Great video!
How do you determine the fair probability of winning when calculating your EV? Sports betting it is hard to determine an actual probability
Formula
gotta use sharp sportsbook lines (removing vig too) and/or betting exchanges
Don't forget sports is not like a coin toss. The rule of numbers may stand under different influences. A bad team is a bad team an can have a good game one day but it isn't anything near compared to a real 50/50 coin toss. Have that in mind when betting.
That is true, but you aren't worried about the outcome of the game/match. All you are worried about is the odds of each possible outcome.
Most team sports that's win for team a, draw or win for team b.
I turned $50 into 6k on sports bet when i was 18. Didnt realise i was doing positive ev, i was just milking there promos. Then they banned me.
Glad to see you back. I hope your holidays went well! 😄
Thank you! You too!
It doesn't really make sense because you don't know what the actual probability is. It is not always 50 50 like in the coin flip example and you don't know what the ground truth is which you need in order to calculate the expected value.
Whilst understanding the mathematics, finding these positive ev scenarios is extremely difficult, plus it won’t be long before your account gets heavily restricted or shut down by the online bookmakers.
Not really you lose often enough next to the regular punters. Both sides get paid plus there are books though rare that don't punish winners. Soft books tend to ban and restrict accounts because they get punters to join and keep putting money in only to lose it. I know that is me.
@@dj4monie Again, ‘both sides’ only get paid if it’s a strictly 50/50 split. I have been restricted from several accounts due to 70% plus winning over and over on the same site.
The best way to approach this to avoid ban is to deliberately place bets to lose sometimes.
@@mauriceukaegbu620true, do tiny dollar amount bets on losses
I understand your example in the video, but I can not relate it to the sport betting. How do you calculate EV for a match between say England vs Uruguay. What are the probabilities of England win or Uraguay win? Second, assume the probabilities are 50/50 like coin toss, how do you bet this match in the long run? Two teams play against each other in few matches in a decade, not thousands match for you to bet.
It's simple, if you let a coin decide on which team to place a bet, you get 50% chance. If you keep betting like this, after let's say 1000 bets, you'll be around 500/500 or 450/550 or 550/450, or any number close to half/half. The bigger the number, the smaller the variance, the closer you're getting to 50/50 odds.
I don't get the strat before the EV+ betting. That assumes the outcome is a 50/50 and in real life sports, it isn't 50/50 to begin with. So unless you are coin flipping betting, having a 3:1 bet doesn't matter in the long term, because if the guy who has the 3, looses 99% of the time, you loose, even more so with law of large numbers.
The arbitrage/ev+ better comparison is a little bit flawed: An arbitrage better would not place that hedge bet for such bad odds, but rather for nearly fair odds, for example at a betting exchange. If you assume that he can bet the hedge bet a the fair odds of 2, you get the same expected value of 3$..
He is way off.The EV is actually 2.34.The EV is the same for an arbitrage bettor and for a value bettor.The only difference is that the arbitrage bettor lays the bet and thus taking the value on the spot,and the value bettor relies on variance and let s the bet run.I have 2000+ opened sites and I actually know wtf I m talking about.Unlike some people here...
@@serbanaurelian4151 hi
@@serbanaurelian4151 with arbitrage, they will restrict your account, with EV will not
@@Tashyncho-Sapa-CEKTAHT Do u even know what is the difference between arbitrage and EV betting?
@@serbanaurelian4151 yes ofc, with arbitrage, you give big red flag to the bookie
Ok so long term let’s say, how do you propose to overcome continuous bans / promo eligibility bans, you can use family members accounts for a while until the same happens to all there accounts, you can then move to buying accounts but that provides issues if you need to dispute anything. Thoughts?
How much do you make before they start banning your accounts?
I wan ask like this is how to bet in football
I have tried arbitrage betting, and although I had profits, it was too difficult to find winning bets. I have tested also lots of 50-50 bets with different waging systems. But this looks most promising. Thanks.
You can't find them because books are sharp. You need to find promotions from the new bookies (70+ in Australia now all under different skins) and abuse their promos while laying off action on the exchange to make $$$
@@hackingSORRY You can find them with software, but once you start making consistent profits around it and it becomes like clockwork, (when you go in and out) they start to limit you or gub you.
U need software to find them bro
@@malcolmwasher2308 what kinda software
@@ylmbonez depend what country u are if u are australia or usa then its easy other countrys not so
The question I have is how to find +Ev/arbitrage bets in the UK. There are plenty of sites offering needless ‘tools’ for a premium membership, but what I really need is something which finds the lines or at least indicates the possibilities.
Surebet its free bro
U forgot the compounding effect you can use in arbitrage, since there is no risk of losing your money.
Is there somebody with experience who tried doing this in europe (german,croatia,france,slovenia)??
I reckon it’s better to follow the injury lists of NBA teams, find an underdog who is short priced and place X on it and then the next morning when the other team is now the underdog, place the same amount on them.
Can you simplify more on this topic brother? Thank for the advice.
This is a great approach & injury lists are an important factor in all decisions in sport & horse racing
Tennis tournaments are brilliant for injury based betting especially when you have ageing champions carrying injuries into a tournament
Another great feature of tennis is zero chance of a draw
The biggest bets on horse races are mostly placed after the parade & in the final 30 seconds before all horses are loaded into barriers, some professional punters prefer harness racing because there are no barriers though the parade is very different or arguably absent so it's possible to miss indicators showing stress or sub-optimal conditioning or winter coat or excess weight which show up in parades -;some horses freak out around & in the barriers & this can upset or cause injuries to themselves or other horses
Good luck!
If you and @johnberngal would make predictions together, everyone who joins you would be rich haha
Isn’t this EV betting risky, the odds on a coin toss are certain, the odds of Man Utd winning are far from certain, isn’t the odds in sports betting subjective
How does the software know that a bet is a positive one? From what I understood it needs to compare the odd being paid with the actual odd of it hitting. But how does it know the odd of let's say Barcelona winning? Isn't it subjective?
How does Oddsjam know if a quote is wrong? And what if the bookie tells you that the quote was wrong and gives you back only the bet money without the profit?
So arbitrage betting is a bird in the hand, while EV betting is two in the bush. I'll take the bird in the hand every time. Less stressful.
But on the arbitrage you dont always win, what if the teams draw
⬆️👆🏿Mate, It's impossible to draw. Maybe you still don't understand these things.
Hit me up, hope you understand my explanation.. Haha
Actually there is no 50 percentage chance if it's really 50 percentage chance then both odds are same
Where would you get the values for the probability of each outcome?
Is it possible to know what video I should watch FIRST before all? I keep stopping the video to watch another.... I rather learn left to right, instead of right to left...
I think the example in comparing the arbitrage vs positive ev is flawed. In both examples, profit was gathered as the overall profit per flip multiplied by the number of flips. This may be true for positive ev, but if I was an arbitrage bettor and knew that I was always guaranteed profit I would compound the profits after each round making. On the other hand, positive ev isn't able to do this effectively as one loss would be an instant bankrupt. In the long term, I believe arbitrage is better
What you are describing here is a random walk and eventually you go back to zero, or a martingale type of betting where you compound each bet. You can do a modification like Hull White's model or Asian Exotic Options or something along the lines. This aligns more with Financial Mathematics than Regular Mathematics and it goes really deep. Artibage is known as NO FREE LUNCH (Showning in crypto where artibage existed between countries prime example) but in stocks this is quickly rectfied however in gambling because so many events are happening at once it's impossible to remove that artibage.
You can do some modification to EV to make it better than aribtage but you be devling into 1st order and second order PDEs and this is beyond where you should be.
Scrap what I said before it is a random walk but you have forgotten something you are assuming that the bets can go to infinity, if so then EV becomes a random walk but this is not the case as bets do have a maximum value. Arbitage is better if you assume you cannot attain the maximum , treating the maximum bet as infinity therefore your profits are guarantee however when you hit the maximum betting range then you switch to EV, if your bet goes to infinity than Aribtage is obvious better.
$1 times infinity and 60c times infinity is infinity, however with EV it's 3$ times infinity and 0 times infinity means it's all in one chance.
The comment i made was with regards to the example in the video where number of bets were capped to 1000 and there were no max bets. I do agree with you that this only works while bets are capped, but even then there are ways around the cap. For example, a betting group can be made with the leader providing the arbitrage bet and receiving commission in exchange. I never got into sports betting, but the idea is similar to a stock broker.
While this is true, you get backed off a lot faster from books if you compound your arbs
Yes but +EV has the risk pertaining to the distance between your estimated and the true distribution of the outcome.
Shane explain me. If a Game like : Galatasaray vs Barcelona plays. Why are the odds not 50/50 for each team?? Like your cointoss?? Teams are not equaly STRONG so even if the odds are 7.5 for Galatasaray, 1.36 for Barcelona and 5.25 for a Draw. The EV for Galatasaray is high but still the odds are not 50/50 but more like 75/25... this makes no sence to me so long term u still lose the money they already calculated.
I'm not sure if my way is correct, but I usually try finding the true odds of the bet. This can be done by looking at the odds on an exchange like Betfair. For your example, if Barcelona had back odds of 1.4 and lay odds of 1.5, then the true odds would be 1.45. You can then use this to calculate the implied probability (1/decimal odds)×100. 1/1.45×100= 68.97% probability that Barcelona will win. You can then use this to calculate the EV of the event.
Hope this helps!
Thanks for the breakdown! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (air carpet target dish off jeans toilet sweet piano spoil fruit essay). How can I transfer them to Binance?
i learn a lot of things from you bro keep going
With arbitrage being 100% win or at least 0% loss isn't it much easier to scale. if you took the same example of 1000 flips, but the arbitrage bettor went all-in every time (£3 first flip wins .80. £3.80 2nd flip wins £1 £4.80 3rd flip and so on) he would be way more profitable. EV can't do this as 50% of the time you get reset to zero
Exactly. +EV is all about betting where you know you have an edge. A better example would be if you were using a weighted coin where you knew heads was 52% and tails was 48%. You would always bet heads cause you have an edge. That’s what +EV betting is. It’s not about betting 50/50 odds.
With Australian bookies only this only works for a very short period then your accounts will be banned or restricted to betting pointlessly small amounts.
Can you comment on overseas bookies and which 1s are trustworthy and all associated fees and risks of using overseas bookmakers?
Sir any one help me
@nanimalireddy5155
That depends on what help you need with.
Are you in Australia and want to try this arbitrage stuff ?
If so, you'd need to have a good head for numbers and 2 or 3k atleast, to use as a bankroll.
To be honest as I said in my post above..will only work for a very short period before bookmakers cut you off or restrict your bets to pointlessly small amounts..
@@Fred-rg5vw India I need help plzz hack the betting web site plzzz help me lots of problem i will die position
Might work for your coin toss example but sports betting is an entirely different story. Don't be fooled by fancy explanations to start gambling, it's not worth it.
Always remember: if there was such an easy way of making money, everybody would do it.
These bot conversations in the comments are the best.
Congrats bro. Great video there. In arbitrage betting, you are betting for either one of the teams to win in one book marker and, the other team to lose in another book marker. But what if at regular time both teams are at a draw
So no matter what the odds are, you just place your bet on the bigger odd (it can be 3 or 5 or 6) and the probability that they go in will be 450 of 1000? Sorry for my english im not sure I understood the video right
How do they calculate the ev if they do not know the winning chances?
I've personally found it helpful to use some software tools to assist with sports arbitrage, and Arb Adviser is one that I've had some success with
Int ev bet same me any player just randomly betting on a team which has higher odds?
So can you only place bets within your country? Or say can I, being from Australia, place EV bets on USA sports e.g. NBA
Very interested in this strategy. I am not super familiar with Pinnacle, so I wonder, is it really universally accepted that Pinnacle has the most accurate odds of any Sportsbook? Is there proof of this? That is my main concern about this strategy.
Thank you
This video IS a scam. EV requires you to have a better estimate of reality than bookies. Which is in general wrong. In the specific instance the long term average points scored is used, which is NOT the best predictor of the game real points difference.
Hang on, logic flaw here. With arbitrage you can bet everything you have and have no risk. With positive EV you can't do that and in fact since you don't know how many losers you might have in a row you have to hold back considerably how much you bet. Taking that into account the arbitrage should win
I think the benefit for me with arbitrage is that I can know for sure that I will gain money without having to estimate the EV. EV tends to require assumptions that are hard to verify.
This statistical analysis ignores variances and streaks A better method of analysis would be using a random walk of expected wins; this would account for, say, sometimes when you a flip a coin, it's heads 8 times in a row.
Hey Shane just thinking of your + EV bettor example with odds 4.00. If the EV = 3, would the bettor not be indifferent between betting his 3 dollars? Factoring the fact that EV returns are still associated with some downside, the bettor would even be more inclined to not risk his $3 if the return is the same as his initial outlay.
The EV represents expected profit not return, so on average he will make $3 in profit (on top of his initial stake back).
@@ShaneHuang88 makes sense. Thanks! Do you personally use oddsjam to pull market data as well?
@@ShaneHuang88 Do you bet on all odds over 2.0? Lets say home-team and draw are above 2.0, then you both on both of these?
@@ShaneHuang88 Please, do you have any advice on how to prevent sports books from knowing you're doing EV other than rounded numbers bets??
There is no odds like 1.8 and 4
If there is a 4 odd, the other is ~1.2
Lots of football matches do
Am i missing something?
The EV systems assumes you know the actual probability of the outcomes. How do you KNOW this for sporting events?
I’ve checked out that guy from OddsJam. He’s really good. But unfortunately I don’t think this method is possible unless you actually live in the US since those exchanges are pretty much all US based. Could you confirm if this is true?
Your calculation for the EV is wrong. Positive - Negative, not Positive + Negative. So, where exactly did these profits come from?
25% off? My face is raised and red from the metaphorical SLAP! Great video tho
But how do I know, if a bet has plus EV??
It is almost value betting, nothing extraordinary. Moreover, you will put whole sum on just one side /higher odd/ of the artbitrage, thus you will be yet more noticeable and sooner detected. They allow you to bet just few times these edges. Try it, and you will get wiped out faster than you say "positive EV".
How can I reach you, please give me feedback
Hey Shane, thanks for sharing. I am from Australia and looks like not going to get it to work with your new strategy. Is the BonusBank method that you share previously still valid ?
Look
I check tens of thousands of odds and arbitrage opportunities never exists in Australia . I also check in many betting odds comparison sites in Australia and they rarely exist. In long run you always lose, gambling is good for fun. But you can’t put your future and your families in gambling stake. 99.5% of ppl always end up losing.
He just made these to make his videos interesting.
Who does give $4 and $1.8 in head to head
Also how does a team with $4 odds have 45% percent of winning against $1.8 odds??
In short run or even in long run. Bookies have calculated profits and odds. They got softwares so that their odds don’t go in big margins against other bookies and they don’t let make arbitrage opportunities for people.
Fucking fake for views.
@@prajwalkarki8944 Its not fake. Its real. I work in a sports betting company and i am sure this is real. We skew the odds to attract arbitragers to offload risk for us. We skew the odds for a brief 10-20minutes on average and thats all it takes for automated arbitragers to detect the opportunities and execute their trade.
Bookmakers want arbitrage because localised fans are very polarising when it comes to betting. A region of 5million population can be die hard liverpool fans. If you imagine all of them buying liverpool 1X2, the bookmaker will have a very heavy potential loss if liverpool really wins. To prevent heavy losses, they will skew the odds by severely lowering liverpool and increasing the odds for the opponent to attract arbitragers. It is a deliberate act by the bookmakers.
@@3446 can you teach me more
@@prajwalkarki8944
"Who does give $4 and $1.8 in head to head"
It's a hypothetical you muppet. That's the point, make it so obvious that idiots can get the gist of it.
I understood your calculation, but I did not understand your odds. Let me know if any betting site gives odds of 1.8 and 4 for the same match so forget your methods I will make money regardless but you can't make money on your imaginary odds . Just wondering how many betting sites paying you to hook up ppl to the gambling ?
What time should i place my ev bet?nice video!!!🎉🎉
Hey dude quick question, can I use a vpn if I dont live in USA?
As an australian what betting sites do you recommend, and what categories would be ideal for this? Eg. Horse racing, afl, tennis?
Ladbrokes, Tab and sportsbet are the best place to start in addition to betfair
@@ShaneHuang88 come on dont bs ppl, i had my tab account shut down along with marathon coral and will hill
Am from Kenya what's the best site
@@purew.a.s.p6369 use bowlers?
How is positive EV better when you can only bet less than 5% of your bank roll each time according to the Kelly Criterion?
I'm running into trouble with the idea of calculating the probablity of each of two teams winning a game as 50%. Yes, with a coin toss there is absolutely a 50% chance of getting either outcome, however I don't think the odds are equal when it comes to sports events. Yea, there are two possible outcomes, so in that respect it's 1/2, however I hardly think a healthy Phoenix Suns team has the same chances of winning as a healthy Houston Rockets team (they currently have the best and worst records in the NBA). Would it be better to use some sort of win percentage weighting to make the calculation (The the two percentages should still add up to 100)?
My calculations would put the Houston odds at 23.38% and the Phoenix odds at 78.62% if they were playing each other today.
Yeah, that's why this video is just a scam to draw in stupid people into losing their money. Arbitrage betting at least makes perfect sense and works regardless of chance. This is nonsense.
@@brianpso Actually, I beg to disagree. I've been trying this out since... April, and I'm up about $9000. The way this works is that they're betting that the odds that the tighter sportsbooks give (like pinnacle) are the most accurate, and placing bets that are more profitable than they should be, based on pinnacle's odds being correct. Being very risk adverse, I started out just doing arbitrage, but then I used those profits to make positive ev bets, and look where I am now! I'm playing with house money 😊.
@@kazdot1795 hey I’m interested in what you do. You think you can teach me a little more and where to start ?
@Kazdot would you mind to share your syatem?
Please share your system.
Good video, But you're having a big problem. The same mistake made by many retail traders, for the EV you can't compare the odds of coin toss 50/50, with the probabilities of matches and you don't have a very large sample of data to know the significance of the probabilities you're having (you can't decide over 1000 or even 5000 data points). So what your thinking contradicts the law of LN.
The opposite, if you have a very close to guaranteed edge, stick with it and bet often.
Quantitative backtests of fundamental economic data can get away somehow with average sample sizes, because they are done on monthly or quarterly data points, and markets are fractal, so you can have positions lasting hours or minutes for EV you backtested in monthly data, also you have similar sets so you can have positions in many connected assets.
For the probability, you use the fair market odds (wisdom of the crowd) or a sharp bookmaker like pinnacle. There is a bit of uncertainty but it isn't significant.
lol u cant beat the wisdom of the market u dum nerd, lol
@@ShaneHuang88 I think you're missing the point of putting odds to your side in a statistically significant, and constant way. By this, you are trying to play the game that these companies want you to play, which is having a directional bet, and use their betting probabilities to calculate yours, which is completely wrong, cause net/net each company is winner. If what you explained is correct, long time betting people should be now rich, cause they played a lot over time on most probable sides)
The only way, is to do arbitrage, cause on aggregate you will have discrepancy, cause there's not a highly efficient centralized betting network, and the nature of what you're betting on is hard to continuously put into correct probabilities. So arbitrage is profitable, but needs a team, many phones.. Etc. Watch the recent video of spencer Cornelia, it confirms my point.
Quick example, selling option contracts in financial markets, has a 90 to 97% probability of success in thousands of trades..(better than sports betting) And even if you apply your idea of EV, that 3% is able to destroy all your account and even more. So quant funds do volatility arbitrage, by selling and buying same option, same strike but different calendars..
Keep doing research, and improving.. Don't listen to haters :)
Nice
@@abboodbl7345 1
how do we know how much should we bet according to the odds?
Probabilities suggest that a positive EV bet will pay out way less than 50% of the time
what if it's a draw?
dude.... that's just gambling, there's nothing "smart" or mathematical about it, you're just gambling on the one with better odds
We have betting exchanges and people still betting on bookmakers that is so sad 😞
How do you know it's 50/50 when you not betting on the same game all the ime
Thanks for the analysis! 🔍 Just a small off-topic question: 😅 I have a set of words 🤷♂️. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). What is this? 🤔
I mean you can essentially use both, for someone starting out who doesn’t want to risk anything they can use arbitrage betting to build up money wjth guaranteed profits then switch over to ev betting when they are ok with taking a loss for a while
Which arbitrage/+EV site would you recommend for those based in Europe?
to be honest i am not too familiar with europe unfortunately :(
What arbitrage sites would you recommend for Australia? Thanks.
@@lukehall2478 can code your own software tbh, msg me
In how many bookies you need to have to get the best EV ? How many bets you recommend to place in 1 day?
8-10 books, as many bets as you can place.
what bookmaker you use for no limit accounts? I get to be banned in every bookmaker I try..
What if scenario: If you have a positive ev bet on one sportsbook but once the lines change you no longer have a +ev bet. Does that matter? Does that make your previous bet more/less risky or unprofitable? Seeing as how lines change so much, how soon should you be checking? A day ahead? Two days ahead? If anybody can answer that let me know. Would be much appreciated!
If the lines change later, that doesn’t impact bets you already placed. If the lines change before you place your bet, then you should re-evaluate whether or not you should place the bet
but wait! this gut was banned and now he is making 40k$. is he BSing us?
I somewhat disagree with your theory of the coin toss percentage. Your right long term is should be around 50/50 but surely its a bit like the roulette method of $1 red if pose bet aagin if pose double then double then double and technically can never lose other than due to table limits but it can be 10 /30 times red which means surely EV isnt much different to just gambling on a 50/50 spread as it doesn't really work like that and your still gambling because you can lose. I'm not sure your profits are always positive as you showed in another video a plus $1200 from one Saturday but I'm sure this method means there are many days and even weeks or months where there is an overall loss?
Not sure you understand how arbitrage betting works
Does anyone know if this is works when you have to pay 5% tax on every single bet? Because here in my country that is the case
Let's be real, if multipliers offered are 4 and 1,6 it is not gonna be coinflip. It is favored for latter and by how much determines which of bets is going to be positive EV, if underdog's chances are between 1/4 and 3/8 both are positive EV.
Reason why arbitrage betting is possible in first place is because there is not enough info to rigorously calculate odds and betting sites have to make educated guesses. If it would be that easy to calculate odds every betting site would do so and there never would be any positive EV bets.
Arbitrage betting's idea is that there is no need to guess which of options is positive EV one. All that matters is thah at least one of them is and by multi-option betting it can be ensured that EV for that strategy is positive regardless of odds for actual event.
Positive EV strat requires you to be able to know actual odds for event to be able to recognize which of given bets is positive EV. If your algorithm thinks that event where you could find 4 multiplier for 1 side and only 1,6 for other side was equal odds for each side, it probably is not that divine algorithm. Most ppl who bet on sports think they are doing positive EV betting, but betting sites still keep making moneys.
ARB is still better because of the fact that it is 100% guaranteed, positive EV may earn more with a high % but if it isn't 100%, then it isn't worth it IMO.
This is why understanding probability is so important. Take his weighted coin example and look up a free propability calculator. weight the outcome to .51 and slowly increase the occurrences. You'll soon see the odds of not being up become so low that it's all but impossible. Now do this again and put in a straight line representing a reasonable arbitrage return and then run the above Sim and input the data for ev and you'll see over time even being below the arbitrage av with ev betting becomes nearly impossible. I haven't watched a lot of his videos so this may change but my only criticism at this point is I don't like the idea of people who don't understand what's going on getting involved in these sorts of things. The ap world is interesting but you can't depend on one skill. It's important to understand the math behind what you do to some degree. I'm not saying become a mathematician but becoming an ap is a lot of work and leaving value whether av or ev on the table isn't something that is done. That said maybe the sports betting world is different but i can't imagine why it would be.
I've tried arbitrage betting before. While I did make some profits, finding winning bets was just too challenging.