The Mathematical Truth About Sports Betting... | Sports betting explained
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- Опубліковано 2 жов 2024
- 👋🏻 Hey guys! In today's video, I explain how the mathematical truth behind sports betting (sportsbetting) and why you can expect to lose a lot of money. In this sports betting explained episode, I use expected value (EV) calculations to show the mathematics of betting on sports.
I explain all about multi bets, bookie edge, implied odds using a betting exchange which are the foundations of any sports betting education. Then I go over a couple sports betting tips and strategies so you wont lose money in the future. Hope you guys can find it insightful but please do more research first betting before betting any of your actual money.
🏆 🏆 For those who do want to learn in depth the arbitrage and positive EV strategies I use with real practical examples to help you get started, then you can check out my 5 - part sports betting course over on my website at:
AUS/NZ: shanehuang.com...
USA/Canada: arbitragecamp....
Discord Group: / discord
If you enjoy this video and want to see more about money or university life, please leave a comment down below saying what you would like to see next and any new video ideas are always appreciated!
🙋🏻♂️ Who am I?
My name is Shane and I am an Australian 4th year student studying Engineering and Commerce at The University of Sydney. This channel is dedicated to studying tips, money and insights into college life. I hope you can find this useful! Enjoy!
✌️ Remember to SUBSCRIBE! See you in the next one! / shanehuang88
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This video is not gambling/ investment advice - while the strategies and math I teach and the tools recommended will provide an advantage, there is still user error and luck involved when it comes to betting which can lead to losses. These videos are for educational purposes only and I am not guaranteeing any gains or losses from using the betting methods I talk about.
🏆 🏆 For those who do want to learn the trade and make money betting yourselves (like a pro trader) and be able to make on average $500/ week, then you can check out my 5 - part sports betting course over on my website at:
Australia/NZ: shanehuang.com.au/course/
USA/Canada: arbitragecamp.com/usa-course/
do you have course for philippines pls can u mentor me
Was winning a parlay with 25 something odds with god knows how many bets put together...my final bet to win the whole thing was the Argnetina vs Saudi Arabia game and ofc i put my money on Argentina...they lost like 1/40 games now and that is the game they lost 😂
I literally spat my drink out when I seen the “average Aussie” looses 1300 a year on gambling I swear haha more like 13000 a year
Yea , totally agree
Actually the fair odds are given by Pinnacle and the asian market. The betfair exchange often don´t represent true odds due to low liquidity on some leagues
Hy
Listen please friend
I have to something ask
I have lost so much money on betting, the little I have they have taken
never too late to turn things around.
@@aFREEsportsbettingSYSTEMSaid every compulsive gambler ever 😭
Hi Shane. Nice video but you cannot just say that whatever is in the exchange is the correct odd.
The market can be misfit, specially betting live.
This is a good video for punters though.
While traders need to find EV within the exchange which is a different story and there's probably no mathematics for that since it come to your knowledge of the game and game reading ability.
"you cannot just say that whatever is in the exchange is the correct odd.".
This ^
@@markchapman2933 I'd say that, plus saying the odds of a spread bet on NFL are 50-50 is a fallacy. If it is 3.5 at one casino and 4.5 at another, it can't be 50-50 both places.
Really great video! You explained the bookmaker margin really clearly. I have a question. For your +EV betting style you look for bookmaker odds that are above the fair odds on odds comparison sites (based on the Betfair back/lay mid-price as the fair price) and then just place one side of the arbitrage bet, and over the long term you will make more money than just doing arbitrage betting. I have a question, since this in effect means that you are placing lots of back bets, do you use any staking plans with this, or is it level stakes that you review each month and increase in steps?
This is incredible, Shane!
Only Bet on teams you are familiar with and games you are watching live
What if the end result is a draw ? I don’t see anyone talking about the possible outcome of having a no win situation on both sides
Do one vid about betting in E-sports. There the teams have a great gap of performance, making it easier in theory to get a better result on long bets
+1 for the idea !
Have you found out any edge over e-sports (fifa?) betting? I’ve been looking for on for over a year now
@@mozi1423 I've been betting on LoL and Dota Matches over this last year, Pretty positive because of the irregularity of odds between teams. But I think is more about the nature of the game, of being way harder to comeback
Hahaha I’m sure you bet on SGM too with no lay approach by the look of your video.
I bet on UFC/MMA full time and have won 5/5 third-party tracked years. You can definitely still have a big edge.
Hi
@@mageshwari7250 hi unaku betting pathi தெரியனுமா
your assuming those numbers the bookmakers put out are always correct. But there not.
Today have applied the strategy and have won, thanks for the teaching, keep the videos coming
Please explain this to me in a better way
@@AdewumiIsrael-vg7fg there's a lot of things out there that are easier to understand.
Hello Shane how're you. Thank you for the Mathematical analysis of Sports betting and the highlight of the mistakes we make while we do stakes.
Hello Shane ..I love you and the brain 🧠 you have .. please how can I get your contact ... maybe WhatsApp or telegram name please
Same story...not just that but it sometimes takes forever to load with live bets 100% on point what your saying here
I can see that people’s opinions is not equal to the truth, though they can change the odds, for eg. no matter how many people bet on the earth is flat doesn’t change the fact, just like some people believe some weak team in World Cup can win.
Won plenty of 10+ legs brother so definitely not a hard task, you just need to watch more types of sport by the sounds! Just pick the shit you know! Also don’t do head to head bets on soccer, waste of money when many games end in a draw. Get good cuz.
let me guess..... you are going to start your show with A COIN TOSS STORY?????????????????????
This is so diffecault for me to get it in my head, I use toto and it looks so much more professional.
Why is not everybody using the exchanges? Even with comission isnt it still better than the normal bookies?
Hello Shane, I am really into your formula for EV, but I still don't get how do you get the probability... would you care to explain, please?
just google odds to probability chart, if you haven't already.
You’re such an expert 😳
Where did you get that video of the guy on the floor with the chips? That was hilarious.🤣
Awesome content mate, keep it up 🙌
Keep these videos coming!
Thank you so much keep on updating
Profitability betters get limited more times than not you can’t bet everyday to be more consistent. Good short smart execution .
Hi Shane, how do you calculate the EV of a lay the draw bet?
Charging a fee for services rendered is not "ripping anyone off". Sports books are a middleman.
I agree. I think if you understand you are betting 11/10, and you feel you can best those odds long term, then how is it a ripoff.
Tell tht to the people living off it lol
Thanks for the true secrets of Trading and Betting. I highly appreciated
Multi legs gives more bonus so ur math will be wrong on a 10 leg multi because for instance i played an 12 leg multi with 27 odds and 9$ bonus so total 36 dollar
Hahaha… by all means do whatever u want… love that comment
Makes sense
What are you doing so you dont get banned again ?
I want to ask you more about betting
2:50 bet fair
6:15
9:15
Increase your bets every time you lose so your next win puts you up then drop down to your starting bet again. Been winning for 35 years. ONLY HALF YOUR BETS CAN BE ON THE FAVORITE. You're welcome
Awesome advice 😅
LOL Although increasing stakes works the vast majority of times, eventually a long losing run happens and you either run out of money or bet thousands to get back to the break even mark... in order to start betting peanuts again. What a waste of time.
@@markchapman2933you cant lose 20 times on straight bets it's 50%
@@markchapman2933That's why you have a set stop loss in place. Like 1,2,3,6 and then take your loss. I like 1,2,3 with my first bet being the favorite bet, then my 2nd being 2to1 and 3rd being 1.3to1. or +200 and +130.
Do you have a limit of how many bets you'll chase? 1,2,3,6 ?
the video just changed my way of seeing things thanks
You confusing me. How do you get the numbers you put under "Estimate" column I. e 9.2
average of the back and lay numbers - 9 and 9.4
The minimum odd must be 1.60/1.70? Or u can use this with any odds ?
why can't you just be a book?
man im very confuse can u make private tutorial T_T
I'm in one or them betting groups lol, the amount of times I see bets with like 20+ legs I just cringe, it's funny that it's usually AFL too
Profitable bettors often face limitations, making it difficult to place bets consistently every day and maintain steady profits.
Is there someone who can explain me how it works? He doesn't explain practically how it works
about the high odd events. It is not simply because the odds are higher. the bookmaker could have given you 8.5 instead of 6. So it is because bookmakers make the juice higher on higher odd events. mathematically it is the same if the bookmaker gives you more fair odds on high odd events (unlike the parlays in which mathematically the edges combine). is this true?
Do you sell sure odds to your followers?
It would be cool for you to share an analysis of the Kentucky Derby
@James Please add me to that list, looking forward to it. I have been thinking of getting into this day trading thing and it seems I have got a true mentor here.
good
🇰🇪🇰🇪❤️👌
Mathemagic 🥺
The accuracy and speed of ArbAdviser's market analysis is unmatched - a game-changer for me!
What if we don't have EV at KO and we wait for a better odd in play ? Is the same EV ?
How do you bet in a state in the US where there are no sportsbooks?
Start with vpn
Great game
Hi Shane thanks my man about your channel.
I'm an Arbitrager and I'm using 3 separate betting Account to play Soccer and I play 3 way.
Account 1 Home win
Account 2 All Draw
Account 3 Away win
And it works very good for me my brother. That makes it difficult for the betting house to accuse you of any wrong doing.
you will only get one out come then how do u make profit?
@@aminumuhammad7666 it works
I know how to do it, but it's difficult to find arbitrage game. Bookmakers makes it difficult
@@nwachinemere5695 but the profit will be very low
@@aminumuhammad7666 you need to be consistent and patient.
Even a 5-10% return everyday is a lot on the monthly basis with a decent amount of money invested.
You are endangered when the game is void
true, all is about math, lucky I can use pre-game hedging in my country in exchange and ordinary bookmaker in one time
So we should become bookies instead. Got it!
Do a dfs video
What you neglect to tell people Shane. Is that if you beat the closing line. You are making profitable bets.
@Official_Shane_Huang88
you don't agree?
@@Bettingtips-qf3qm in the long term your account will have a nice 0.00 balance.
Play and earn daily 3 time free
Awesome video man
По каким ресурсам ставиш
Jion group
Good vid
Hi shane I can't get anything kindly help
Hey Shane great video, could you use this method of splitting back and lay prices for finding true odds on horse racing?
This all makes sense, the only thing is when it comes to esports betting I very frequently don't view the odds on the betting as the true odds. They're constant best of 1 matches where the odds for the winning team are like 90%, when that isn't even close to the real odds. I find it's pretty easy to make a profit even with the fact that the bookies are scamming you. Maybe the same isn't for sports betting, maybe those are closer to the true odds. But with esports at least I very often see odds that just don't make any sense and can exploit it.
Very interested in applying +EV betting to esports. What platform do you bet on?
Will this help me today.
Actually anyone tried this guy out some people talk about sports arbitrage and end up being scammers?
dont know wtf ur trying to say but this guy def makes malicious videos by painting arbitrage betting as some godsend in order to sell his scummy courses to idiots
they might be a branch under the guys that run the show, so to keep the company profitable they have to charge a bit more to make a profit.
Its just buisness, from wholesaler to retailer.
Gday Shane do you bet on horses?
看你id好像是华裔，出点中文版呗
hi Shane super video :)
did you try betting on similiar odds diffrent games ?
thanks, but not too sure what you mean
@@ShaneHuang88 do you have a telegram channel?
Hello bro today apded
Idk I used my free bets on some big parlays and got paid pretty well.
luck haha
@ShaneHuang88 probably but I like to think that I have skill analyzing all the stats of nba players lol
Do you sell odds
no I dont haha
funny
Give me big odds and i buy you new car
Sure?
@@254newstv7 and house
@@JJ_11111 how about odds that are a good hit?
Ok, what exactly is 50-50 bet? Help me out please, anyone.
50/50 bet suggests that there's a 50% chance you lose and a 50% chance you win. The same with flipping a coin. However, fair odds suggests that your bet has to be multiplied by 1 if you win but the bookies give you -115 odds on either side which means you have to wager 115 to win 100 so you have a 53% chance of winning which isn't true since it is 50%
So that 3% on either side is the "vig" or in other words the edge that the bookies has
53% + 53%= 106%
106%-100% =6%edge for the bookies
Hope this helped.
Can I get your contact
telegram nickname gi???
How I can contact u ,