Big Ten Expansion: Westward Bound? Pac 12 Expert's Take
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- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- Jon Wilner's latest mailbag suggests that two teams out west aren't done trying to get into the Big Ten.
Full article: www.mercurynews.com/2024/06/0...
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This sounds like the Wilner during the Pac 12 saga. Disconnected from reality.
Two cents from a former P12 fan, Stanford is the only school out West that could bring value to the B1G right now. They wouldn’t share research as required by the BTAA. If the ACC should lose more than 4 members, Stanford may reconsider and would be a natural partner for Notre Dame.
I think Stanford has a case for B10 still (if) Notre Dame wants in B10. Cal though, I don’t ever see in B10
The B1G's first expansion move was to create a West Wing of four to six teams. USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington were at the top of the target list. Contrary to what we heard from several prominent sportswriters, USC and UCLA were never going to be the only B1G schools on the West Coast.
The numbers (college TV eyeballs) didn't work for Stanford and Cal.
If you recall Kevin Warren took a shot at a deal that included those two schools and couldn't sell it. He also proposed a Notre Dame/Stanford deal.
I think there is a possibility that that deal could be resurrected sometime in the future. The Fighting Irish can financially carry any school into the B1G as their Plus 1. A fifth school in the West Wing helps with Olympic sports. B1G presidents would love to have an excuse to add Stanford's research capabilities.
I don't see the B1G expanding beyond twenty-four teams: FSU #19, Clemson #20, ND #21, Stanford #22. Now step back and look at the B1G map. There is a big hole that needs to be filled--it's called The Lone Star State.
TA&M and Missouri
Totally CORRECT on getting into Texas. it is a MUST for the B1G.
The rest. Meh.
I heard that Oregon was considered before UCLA by the BiG.
@@sonofrobert The conventional wisdom by B1G people was that USC and Oregon were the obvious choice.
@@wally8787 Yes and UCLA in it's current state, doesn't draw many eyes..lol
You lost me at Jon Wilner.
That's bcuz ur a monkey. You just throw poop and eat Bananas. 😂
and altimore
@@louispapp7722 Huh?
Very unpopular take, but if the B1G doesn't expand southeast, I think Cal, Stanford, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado and Kansas would be great additions for them. All are AAU schools, it would connect the whole conference and add the Salt Lake City, Denver, Phoenix, Kansas City, and the Bay Area markets. To be clear, I do not want this to happen, but I could see something like that happen.
None of these schools bring incremental value to the B10! Heck I doubt if they bring even pro-rata. So either these schools take lesser shares, or all current schools take lesser shares, but everyone gets equal shares!
The one thing ASU, Utah and TCU bring is their fast growing markets. I have always been pro Sun Devils to the Big 10. But I do not see that happening until the next TV contract at the earliest
@@haroldflashman4687 I think you are absolutely correct. Those schools would definitely have to take lesser shares, probably even less than the 50% media split that Oregon and Washington are taking. I think the B1G would benefit by having all those markets at a cut rate and those schools would benefit by having a seat at the table.
This has become CONSOLIDATION: not realignment.
I don't get the hate for CalFord. The bay is a huge and very rich area. If CalFord would commit to promote their FB and BB, they could create interest in their market. Maybe they don't see any value for their institutions from athletics.
CalFord has value in academics and Olympic sports, they serve two purposes, to keep the academic types in line and pad stats in the Learfield Cup
Hi Buddy Just missed you What I meant with BYU doing Fan Fest in Dallas and Phoenix is that the TCU is in the DFW metro area of 6 to 9 mil, Baylor Same metro Area, Houston about the same size metro area. These schools need to do community out reach to create new fans you have to let them know you are there. Big XII needs butts in front of a tv viewing Games. If Not the SEC and Big X will separate themselves even farther. TCU being the only game in town (Ft Worth) should have a 75k stadium. Hot dogs, Hamburgers and beers go a long way in creating new fans. Just Saying Go Big XII
Cal/Stanford would need to live with a partial share for at least two contract cycles.
The thing about Stanford is they just have to choose to be great. Money is not the issue for them. But, I still don't think the ACC completely disappears. Shoot, I'm not completely convinced Clemson/FSU have a path out before 2033.
I not convinced that Stanford and California going to Big Ten what value do they add to the conference. If I were running the Big Ten I would be looking down south to add schools.Another thing is that the networks are calling the shots on college football realignment. Do you see Fox getting onboard with adding the Bay Area schools.
I have always seen the Calford interest in the ACC as being beyond football. They’ll play football because tradition… and only tradition. But there’s a core of ACC schools not looking to go to the b12 and seem to value the Sears Cup just as much. If Virginia and Duke aren’t P2 selections, they stay IMO.
The money, you ask? Consider the possibility that what’ll really be the FBS Ivy will be like golf. Not the huge money, not much for ratings, but matters to enough rich people and private equity types who want to preserve particular Olympic sports that the niche pays more than the average football fan thinks they’re worth.
I see no one has mentioned that Stanford, UCLA, USC have the most national championships across the entire spectrum of sports and Cal is not that far behind. Football may bring the money for now but does include all sports and academics. Not all BIG 10 schools are great in as many sports.
Its seems like we are heading for 2 leagues anyways.
a) The BIG12 has already fallen apart.
b) Very doubtful that the ACC would have added CAL+2 without ESPN approval and assurances.
c) CAL & STANFORD are Tier 2 fits in the future ACC, but they don't look like Tier 1 P2 fits.
Why not Utah to Big Ten? They meet academics and competitive football?
NOBODY IN THE BIG 12 WANTS STANFORD OR CAL.
Except for every university president, and the B1G Acedemic Alliance. It's FOX and the Michigan athletic director (whos been growing fat and happy sniping Stanford recruits and transfers in the portal era) that are the opposition....or at least that's the cover story....USC tried to bring Stanford as the plus 1 originally. FOX probably doesn't care as long as they can get Notre Dame in the deal... and all the presidents want the research.
The article is about Stanford/Cal getting into the Big 10, not the Big 12. Stanford/Cal has made it clear they don't want the Big 12, either. They would try to reform a diminished Pac 12 before ever joining the Big 12.
Well, the B1G gets the bay area market with cal and stanford. Maybe they decide that there's a great bit of value to that area?
Yeah, it's interesting. In the old paradigm where academics, geographic rivalries, and geographic TV markets mattered more, at least Stanford seems a no-brainer. It's kind of hard to picture Fox ponying up for them in this day and age though.
@@jimsomerville3924
The B1G would have taken Stanford (and Cal as a plus one) even if Fox wouldn't pay up,had Stanford agreed to share its research.
As it was.Fox wouldn't pay extra money into the B1G media deal which meant that the existing B1G schools would have had to take
smaller cuts of the media money pie to cover Stanford and Cal. The B1G would have still taken Stanford and Cal due to their academics,
the large amount of B1G alumni transplants in the Bay Area (Especially Michigan and Northwestern) and their massive research
endowments had Stanford agreed to share.
Stanford was of the mindset that the B1G would beg to bring them in.Both to balance out the other PAC schools as part of a "Pacific division"
of the expanded B1G.And as a draw to get Notre Dame to join the B1G.
If the ACC loses it's 2 biggest football brands to the B1G (FSU and Clemson) and the SEC picks up UNC and Virginia (Or NCST,or VT)
is that enough to drive Notre Dame into the B1G, which also could take Stanford,Cal, and Miami,to round itself out to 24 teams of
4 divisions?
The Bay Area is one of the top U.S. media markets, but nobody gives a whit about college football.
@@jimsomerville3924That is old. Re-alignment could have went one of two directions.
1. Regional smaller conferences with one or two huge brands. Freeing up the schedule for the big brands to keep non-conference game money. That would require them to schedule marquee non-conference opponents regularly. Extremely bad dead weight like Vandy, Northwestern, and etc would be cut. (Like Rice, Tulane and others got cut last round)
2. Consolidation into monster conferences where eventually bigger schools but lessor brands like Illinois, Indiana, South Carolina, Oregon State, Cal, Standford, Arizona, ASU, Colorado and WSU are no longer safe long term. I may be missing listing some schools due to my own bias. Because I think I could add Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia. It is far easier to just to say only the top 20 BRANDS are safe. And even if your school is are 17-20 have a stretch of declining performance, viewership, and attendance leading up to new TV contract and your team might get demoted.
It is all circling the drain. Some of the old guard will blame the playoffs. That is 100% wrong. And most of them say it because if they are a fan of a big brand school they will refuse to critize insanely weak non-conference scheduling. Worse yet they pay to watch 75-3 beat downs when the best player on the opposing team would be so low on the depth chart they would not travel to away games.
@@jimsomerville3924They ponied up half a share for UO/UW. Maybe a 3rd or quarter share for Stan/Cal would be palatable for everyone.
When Harbaugh rejoined the NCAA, he immediately targeted Stanford and ND recruiting pipelines and continued all the way through last year when he won the Natty. Which is ultimately why Kelly and Shaw left. It's the Michigan AD who is the main stumbling block for STAN/ND...Academically, every single president wants access to the reasearch and internships, which is worth exponentially more than football, especially in the long run. The problem is that the presidents dont really have much say any more, FOX has completely taken over the B1G. OHIO State doesnt have much appetite for Stanford because they have a losing record (.400) to the Tree.
15 year loss totals of PACteams USC 66, UTAH 65, WASHINGTON 67, Stanford 67, UCLA 84, Oregon 47 losses....Others; Iowa 66,MICHIGAN 58 losses, FLORIDA State 60, Clemson 40, Texas 75 losses, Penn State 70 losses Georgia 45 losses, ND 54 losses, LSU 51 losses.
No one's moving. NCAA school owe money to players 10 years ago.
North Carolina can't move because ACC allow the sate of North Carolina to host championship so that would lose all revenue it generates for all the tournaments and championship games they host.
It all depends on what Notre Dame does, as I can see the B10 taking in Stanford if they bring Notre Dame with them. The thing with Notre Dame is that they would want the same deal from the Big 10 that they got from the ACC in that their football stays independent with schedule alliance with the Big 10 in football.
Use some graphics.
Jon Wilner, writing from the Bay area, suggests that Cal and Stanford should try to get into Big 10. Of course they should try when the ACC breaks up, but he doesn't suggest in what you read that he has any word from the Big 10 that they are interested. This is just something to write for the locals who can always dream.
Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State, SMU, Tulane, San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State, and UNLV….rebooted PAC. Would love to see it.
No Air Force?
@@reverend_wintondupree sure! Bring on the falcons!
To me it’s smarter for the B1G to take:
Utah
Kansas
Colorado .
The problem is that Cal and Stanford don't want to align themselves with those schools. They look down on them academically. They would like to be in the big ten. But the big ten wants teams that care about sports, so who knows?
@@richardtaylor2361 And to add Notre Dame may very well bring Stanford along again should they be forced to fully join a conference
Jon Wilner have not been creditable during conference realignment
Husker fan first, then B1G fan. Missing the B12 very much though. I just don't see these 2 Cal teams making it to the B1G. Think those teams (schools) are bad now, wait for a couple of years when they are paying $5M a year to athletes and Vanderbilt, NW, Rutgers are paying out $13M let alone other schools paying out the $20+M. Also think of Syracuse being to pay more because they are getting a full ACC share while the 2 Cal teams are getting much less.
nobody wants to attend games in frozen places
I would take Stanford not Cal
Honestly, I don't want to see EITHER of those teams joining. Make the league stronger...not smarter...make the league more competitive, not weaker 🤦♂️ screw all that!
The Big Ten really needs to make a play for the State of Texas. Go get Texas A&M, Texas Tech and TCU.
A&M is SEC through and through. Forget them and go for Baylor, TCU and T-Tech. Trifecta that works.
@jansonroberts2616 That really wouldn't work. What type of fan base do you think Baylor and TCU have? Texas A&M would be a home run pick-up for the Big Ten. Texas Tech would be straight average add to what the Big Ten already is. TCU and Baylor are not worth the Big Ten's time by themselves. However, if both Tech and A&M join then adding TCU so that Big Ten football will get played in the Dallas market, all of a sudden, makes TCU worth taking. However, there is nothing Baylor can ever hope to offer to make them worth the Big Ten's time.
@@johnw3922 A&M isn’t leaving the the SEC. Might as well grab Alabama, LSU or Georgia. Yeah, that’s not happening. If the B1G wants into Texas, it’ll have to be Big12 teams or G-5 schools. That’s realistic, instead of wasting time trying to get an SEC school to leave.
I would imagine that Stanford and Cal, in the event of an ACC collapse, would take a pragmatic approach. They would tighten their belts financially and become independents. They would find their future with games against the LA schools and with schools in the PAC-MWC merger and other matchups against other schools that were previously in the Pac-12.
Ya know the way you talked about Cal there with the 'Did they even play a game in the last 10 years'? That is PRECISELY what I think about what remains of the Big. Funny that...
Stanford and cal don’t care enough about football, I can see the Big Ten letting them in for academic reasons only which sucks as a football fan! Maybe Cal and Stanford should join the ivy league
Academics only
The B10 loves to talk big about academics, but they are truly doing themselves a disservice overlooking Stanford and Cal when they fit the profile every which way.
Adding Cal and Stanford would mean easier travel for the west coast schools, I would have hated going two or three timezones every two weeks for an away game.
Football would only be twice a month tops....It's the other sports where these western teams are going to have huge problems, especially women's and olympic sports.
the only value Cal and Stanford can give the B1G is AAU value and research dollars.
Idk if you know this but theirs a serious conversation of BIG alumni living in that bay area....marketing and product placement matters
WASU And Oregon St are a better Big 12 fit than Ca and still the Big 12 didn't invite them. Cal should embrace the suck and rejoin the the PAC12-2.0 when the ACC dissolves
Stanford, yes...Cal, no.
Stanford should come in with ND, after FSU and Clemson/Miami.
Texas and ou to the sec made sense both financially and geographically the big 10 is over all four time zones which more power to them but football isn’t the only sport so just doesn’t make any sense from a financial standpoint how much money are they going to spend traveling across the country for other sports the sec will remain financially viable while the big 10 will have a gradual erosion of value over the course of time 🤷♂️
Here is a thought. Get rid of conferences. B10/SEC create a college football organization, separate from NCAA. Get teams from ACC and B12 they want, plus any others worthy, and let the teams schedule their own opponents with a set of guidelines. Then set up a playoff and be done by with it. Let the west coast teams play half their games out there then schedule a few from the south and Midwest so there is balance. Same for Midwest and south. Create a commissioner to oversee everything with a sub commissioner in charge of scheduling and one for the playoff. Stanford in the ACC is ridiculous!
I don't see The B1G going West again to me it'll be Clemson and FSU or GaTech
NOOOOO TO CALFORD
Washington and Oregon have made it clear they want to play conference member universities closer to them on a regular basis.
Should have stayed in the PAC then!
I DOUBT Stanford will be going out of their way to play Washington/Oregon ever again. Ana Mari ended a 19th century rivalry without so much as a conference call.
People seem to forget that Stanford was a national football power 15 years ago under Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck.They were winning the PAC-12,
going to the Rose Bowl, and would have made the 4 team playoff had that been a thing at the time. This means that Stanford football was more nationally
relevent,more recently,then most of the existing B1G schools including my Gophers,and UCLA.
Only Michigan,Ohio State,Penn State, Michigan State,Wisconsin,Iowa,Oregon,USC, and Washington,have enjoyed as much or more on the field success
within the last 15 years as Stanford.
David Shaw did some great things also.
And Utah (save for their poor bowl record)
Calford don't 'believe' in lobbying ..
They are 'above' all that.
And why would the Big 10 take another school with serious debt that will bring no value to their conference?
I think Cal has < 1% chance of the Big 10. Stanford is better because of ND. That said, I think if the Big 10 lands Florida St and Miami or Clemson ( which I think more likely), they can stop and wait. If ND wants to join ( on condition of bringing Stanford)? Then they can expand. If not? Stay at 20.
I don't think any ACC teams go to the B1G unless they become desperate for a landing spot. The B1G isn't going to offer anyone besides N.D. more than what they gave Wa/Or last year. That's already becoming an issue for those schools since a half share in the B1G is just over 30mil a year and in this changing landscape of cfb, that's just not cutting it. Would any ACC school be willing to take a pay cut for the next six years for an eventual higher payout down the road? I think the SEC might be a better option, but we don't know yet how much ESPN would be in bumping up the current media deal to add schools.
@@troywest7045 The SEC has a pro rata clause with ESPN for full shares in expansion but it’s contingent on pairing only two teams at a time. If the SEC were to expand by three or more teams at one time, it would be solely up to ESPN to set payouts whether partial, half or full shares. The SEC presidents have long followed whatever the SEC commissioner and the ESPN executives have told them regarding expansion. They are not going to cook their golden goose.
WHY would B1G even consider Calford. Cal and Stanford won’t put the money into football. Cal is running in the red, not enough money and not enough donors. Stanford has a multi BILLION dollar endowment. But they will not some money to football.
Did Wilmer give odds on Calford joining the B1G like he did for PAC-12 destruction.
Two comments. One- why does everyone seem to think that ND and Stanford are joined at the hip? The Irish beat them down once every365 days and the game has not been competitive for years. Two-what is the love affair for Colorado? They haven’t been good in football for years and Sanders has one bad foot out the door when his younger son runs out of eligibility AND when he does there will be nothing left in the cupboard to entice any coach to go there. They made a splash hire that has yet to pan out.
STANFORD is .586 against ND/USC, the best record of that three way over last 15 years. They last beat ND in 2022, It was in South Bend.
Not gonna happen.
If BIG wanted Cal and Stanford they’d already have them. So, why now? Why keep beating this dead horse?
If only you were even remotely close … cya
Neither Cal nor Stanford bring any value to Big Ten football
There is a reason why people don’t watch Ohio State vs Indiana. Do you really think football fans want more of those types of games?
INDIANA has an 0-2 record vs Cal and Stanford has a winning record vs Ohio State.
@@MichaelSmith-xb5cp , Fair enough, but neither team can draw a national audience. Heck, their own fans don't even show up to games.
@dp26385 Housing in the immediate area starts at about 2M for Stanford and 1.5M for Berkeley, and both schools have huge grad schools. Grad students typically fan for their undergrad Alma Mater. A typical B1G public University has 5 times the undergrads.....It would be like telling Ohio State to go get the fan bases of Texas and Oklahoma in addition to their own. Administrators more than double the Undergrad population at Stanford, and an unusually high number of undergrads are foreign born and have no link to football culture, but a high interest in Olympic sports.
@@MichaelSmith-xb5cp I get that, but when you have a network that is a public company, they aren’t interested in that stuff. Their only responsibility is to their shareholders. If they can’t get the desired return on their capital, then it doesn’t make sense.
The Bay Area is the metro with the most B1G alumni. Bringing in Stanford (and Cal) gives B1G presidents a chance to connect with some wealthy alumni.
They can connect without bringing dead weight into the conference watering down the other schools' payouts...
@@RT-iy9pu Stanford doesn't need the B10's peanuts. They have more money than god! They need a place for their athletes to play in all the other sports that don't matter to the football world.
Go B1G or go home
Utah to the BIG 10