What Every Conference Will Look Like in 2030 - College Football 2030, A Big Mountain Series, Ep. 5
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- The Big Mountain brings you their first series - COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2030.
EPISODE 5 - We layout what we think every conference will look like in 2030. What teams will be where? Will there be 10 conferences? Who will make it to the Power 2? Find out here!
Also, be sure to check out our first four episodes on our channel! The NCAA's future and the future of the CFP by 2030.
MERCH STORE: thebigmountain...
The information provided on this podcast is for entertainment purposes only.
#ncaafootball #bigtenfootball #collegefootball
"Irregargless" is not a word, use "regardless" instead. See 4:50 in video.
BTW, it was JY that used that word. Other than that I enjoyed your show.
😂 Said “Whoa whoa whoa” when he said it Lol
Yeah. JY knows better.
But as you know, words aren’t always his thing. 😂
Well, first of all, it's not "Irregargless" but "Irregardless". Second, irregardless is a "word" otherwise it wouldn't be used (just as "ain't" and "y'all" are not "words"). Third, language changes and irregardless may come to be used interchangeably with regardless (remember "cute" originally meant "keenly perceptive or discerning, shrewd").
@@stischer47 Sorry I miss spelled a wrong word. I should have rechecked what I was replying. Regardless, irregardless is not a proper word as is the word "Ain't." It is a contraction of the words, "are & not." That is not only improper grammar but words as well. Use it around any English Language teacher and ask him/her about it. Irregardless is not a replacement word, it is a slang word used in place of the original word when the user doesn't know any better, or by mistake. Both irregardless and ain't are used in books and movies by characters with lesser education.
You may use both of those words but don't be surprised how some people may view you, if you are not under 12 years of age.
ACC: add UConn, USF, Tulane, SDSU, Oregon State, Washington State.
Yes! Tulane should join the ACC or Big 12
Memphis should be included before you add Tulane. SDSU and UConn.
@@rayrayrivers6135agree
Acc will have 4 west coast teams ?? Thst is effing pathetic if it ends up like that.
It's funny, we've heard non-stop that the SEC wouldn't add FSU because they already have a school in Florida.
The SEC won't add a second team to a state with 25 million residents and three top 25 television markets, but they'll take two schools in North Carolina and Virginia? 🤔
Bingo… example A&M and Texas. They do care about those game ratings. Imagine Florida vs FSU every year. The SEC is buying up all the great or potentially great rivalries.
And Mississippi and Texas
@trclark7689 the SEC has wanted UNC for at least 60 years, if not longer. The Cocktail party is UGA's biggest rivalry game.
@@powell4661none of that had anything to do with what I posted?
Guys, what makes you think SDSU, FSU and SJSU are “tied at the hip”? SDSU has left those two in 1975 and 1998 and FSU left SJSU behind three times. They are NOT tied at the hip.
In the video we explained why we think things are different now than in 1975 and 1998
Great video as always gentlemen. My thought to offer is if the American loses as many schools as you say they do, the value of the conference diminishes. They are not a $7 mil a year conference now, let alone if they lose anyone. It would make sense for the Texas schools to contact the Pac-12/MWC to see if they are interested. Definitely more money.
Good point on value.
TX schools going west would be very interesting and a big shift. (But possibly a very positive one)
I also disagree with all 12 MW teams joining the PAC2 teams as the simplest/best path. The best option is for 9 of the 12 MW teams vote to dissolve the MW Conference and join the PAC2. There would be no payouts and you could dump the three weakest teams. That would result in no cost transaction which retains your war chest and it gets a better media deal for each school.
And those bottom 3 go to conference USA or something. Strong adds for that conference
We just don’t see 9 MWC members approving a dissolution. But we could be wrong.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast Understood, but I think you under appreciate the expiring media deal. The PAC12 broke up because of an expiring media contract, while the ACC is still intact. The MWC deal expires in two years.
Yes, but the range of values in the MWC are far closer then that of the old pac. Also, the regionality is important to all MWC schools. That clearly wasn’t the case for some of the old PAC.
Not saying you are not correct, but the values aren’t nearly as dramatically different.
Lots of variables to consider, for sure.
@@user-od3hf1rm9h Good Call. Lots of Factors COLLIDE in 2 years and in 5 years. Reaching beyond the West Coast but INCLUDING the West Coast.
I don't think UNC and NC State or UVA and VA Tech are going together. The SEC and Big Ten are going to get what they want and the other will probably be set up in the Big 12 or new ACC. There may even be some revenue sharing agreement between the schools and their state counterparts. If the SEC and Big Ten want all of those teams, they may work out an agreement to split them. FSU and Clemson could even be in the mix of a split. This of course would probably be worked out between the conferences and the TV networks, FOX and ESPN.
Eventually I think SMU and UTSA Should Join the Big12. Then Memphis to the ACC,
Big 12 doesn't want, or need SMU. TCU covers the Dallas Ft.Worth metroplex.
In any merger BSU will loose their extra $1.5 million dollar revenue share. No way WSU or OSU and then the voting rest of the MWC will say no more pay differential to them. They don't have their former gravitas and they have no options.
Great point.
That’s one of several reasons why JY feels BSU will NOT look to leave or vote to dissolve the MWC.
8:09 No way the SEC does a scheduling agreement with ND.
Why there’s already several upcoming Notre Dame vs SEC games coming soon. They are even scheduled to play Arkansas soon.
UConn is not joining the Conference USA, unless it’s football only
Is it about the "easiest solution" or is it about the highest revenue per team option? I would suggest schools want to maximize $ per school and not just easy button. If history is any indicator, all the realignment has been driven by individual school decisions on maximizing revenue.
You nailed it!!
Cincy wants to see UofL added to the B12.
Perfect content for my CFB Dynasty mode 😅 thx boys you got the sub
There is a team that ACC teams doesn't want to play I think should be part of the conference, Appalachian State
I think the national title will be played exclusively between the big 10 and the SEC. There's no more room for other conferences. It will be the P2 and the G8.
Money is clear
My “Plan A” for the next wave of realignment
Big 10:
Utah Stanford, UVA, UNC, FSU, Clemson
SEC:
NCST, Virginia Tech, Louisville, West Virginia
Big XII:
15 schools (Utah to big ten)
Boston College
Syracuse
Pitt
SMU
California
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami
UConn
@@thomasmceldowney4783 again so fucking wrong
UNC and UVA or KU to BigTen…
FSU, Clemson, VA Tech, and NC State or WVU to the SEC..
Could see possibly two schools poached out of the Big12 as the SEC and BigTen move to 20 each.
Louisville, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Miami, and possibly Oregon State, Washington State to the Big12….
I saw a video that looked at the $$$. If Clemson and FSU leave the ACC, it would take both teams to pay $350M+ to keep ACC on par with the Big12 TV deal because the loss of them would mean they would lose 40% of their viewers and dollars.
The entire landscape of college football hinges on whether FSU and Clemson get out of the GOR. I do think they will, but, everything else going forward is very speculative. I do agree that FSU and Clemson go to the B10, but I wouldn't be surprised if two more teams also go. When that happens and if ESPN does not renew the GOR following 2027 then I can see the ACC collapse. But, what happens is so complicated that I could see anywhere from two to eight ACC teams leave to the B10, SEC, or B12 and they try to rebuild with AAC Schools and OSU/WSU. But, there is also a chance that if the AAC gets raided they raid the other G5 schools to try to be the “power” G5 that has a “guarantee” that they will be the annual G5 Representative in the CFP. Great video guys from a SBC alum.
No. That is DONE. The only variable on that is the TIMING. The Timing WILL play a part. But it is a small Factor.
You will not see the ACC Collapse. ONly people with NO TRUE Information on the ACC see a Collapse.
When you know the FACTS about the ACC there no way to believe ANY ACC teams leave for the Big 12. If you knew them you would change your mind instantly.
The PAC 2 will most likely end up in the Big 12. But the ACC is a possibility.
The thing that will shock you the most is how many teams will LEAVE the Big 12 in the next 2 to 5 year. 3 or 4 are already Lined Up.
Although FSU and Clemson wants out of the ACC G.O.R., there is now more schools that want out of the ACC G.O.R. like Uni. of North Carolina, the other schools are now finding out the true facts of what is going on and they want nothing to do with it. There is several scenarios that other podcasters and news folks are talking about. 1) What happens if the ACC does in fact fall apart? We all know, the schools that want out will spilt for the other conferences (B1G, SEC and BIG12 (??)) but the big issue is how much of the conference revenue pie will they get?? So the schools are basically in a negotiating stage right now. 2) The remaining members of the former ACC could regroup and reform the ACC or form a new named conference. 3) But the question I am seeing right now, is Stanford and Cal. (The ACC did not really want them in the first place). What happens to them? If the remaining members of the ACC reforms, I do not see Stanford, or Cal. being part of the 'new' ACC. Stanford and Cal. could possibly move back and get back together with Wash. St. and Ore. St. in a revamped PAC conference. Another possibility is of which the B1G conference could come and invite both schools in for the West Division of the B1G at a reduced revenue share for a few years. The B1G conference will then get the San Francisco TV market which is bigger than the Seattle TV Market which the B1G got with Washington. Lots of Lots of scenarios going on right now that I am seeing...
I still see the SEC taking Kansas instead of NC State and then taking Duke in everything except FB. That would satisfy the NC govt and create a monster Bball brand in addition to FB with Kansas, UK, UNC, and Duke all in the same conference. they don’t want those package deals anymore than the BIG.
I agree that the SEC really doesn’t want to expand more. But they will respond if BIG does.
It would satisfy the North Carolina board of governors if North Carolina and NC State are tied to the hip. Duke is not part of the board. Public schools only.
@@jongrove02 yes but it would soften the blow that NCSU is not an SEC candidate if concessions were made for Duke and probably allow UNC to leave.
I don't see the SEC pulling in NC St over Duke or Kansas. UNC is enough to get the North Carolina market, then getting Kansas provides another adjoining state, okay football, and makes the SEC the premier basketball conference. I doubt they'd take Duke, but that could be the cherry on top. NC St adds no value
It VIOLATES NCAA Bylaws on Conferences to take Duke without Duke Football unless Duke goes Independent in Football. That is NOT happening.
Should the SEC take Duke they have to take ALL of Duke mainly because the SEC has FOOTBALL as a Sport it Sponsors. Look it up.
I think you are right though saying Kansas, UNC, Duke to the SEC... along with Virginia most likely.
There is interesting take from Josh Pate. He sends a cryptic message that ACC is about to lose more members.
We’ve seen the “headlines”.
I rarely watch Josh, but for the update.
The MAC currently has 12,guys,and with U Mass they will have 13.They will likely want to find a 14th at least.
I think the ACC should invite Rice. The ACC can be a conference of smart athletes, with Duke, GT, WF, Tulane, SMU, Cal, and Stanford
Interesting idea. An Academic-first conference. Maybe they go after Air Force as well.
There is no way the Network dumps the service academies. The represent the spirit and patriotism of the whole USA.
Memphis Boise Oregon State Wazzu come on
I see FSU & ND to the B1G.
Sankey loves his SEC as is.
Yormark uses his billion to grab NC, Miami & Clemson as well as using the spare change to grab UConn, Marquette & Gonzaga as non football entries. Brett then invites Duke, NCST, Louisville, Virginia & Pitt. He may also pick up non footballers Creighton, Villanova, & St Johns.
🎉if the lil 12 sell it name rites so will all other conferences. That an advantage for all conferences and give the lil 12 no leverage unless it can sell for more money, the name rites.
IMO PAC-2 should do a reverse merger with MWC. My twist would be to have Hawaii as an associate member where 8 PC-12 teams play games at Hawaii as a 13th game. That leaves PAC at 13. Then invite UNT, UTSA and Rice or Texas St. That puts the PAC-12 at 16 teams with a strong presence in CA & TX.
That would certainly be a great conference of 16!
One factor you are missing, you need to find a good TV market to market the 'product' of the conference. Everything now is based on TV revenue, it has nothing to do with school athletics.
Just because you haven't heard about it, it doesn't mean Commish Gould, Scott Barnes/Jayathi Y. Murthy & WSU are not working the back rooms. Every thing I have heard they are looking at all options. Options are still watching what is going to happen in the ACC, scheduling as many games with the B12 as they can get, also rebuilding the PAC opportunities. They are not sitting on their butts & just watching the ACC & B12 only. It may seem like it but they are not. They are not going to show their hand until they have too.
No doubt this is likely happening. We talked about trying to schedule B12 games on a previous PAC -2 update. Clearly their strategy for the next 2 years to keep relevant and have national recognition wherever possible.
I am seeing that both Wash. St. and Ore. St. are working behind the scenes trying to stay reverent in the football world. The 'scheduling partnership' with the MWC is actually 'hurting' them in the long run if they want to compete for a national championship. Both Schools need to get into a Power Conference or rebuild the PAC conference within the next 2 years. The TV contracts will be up within the next few years. - As far as the ACC, oh boy, that is a very interesting situation, especially for both Stanford and Cal. there is some scenarios that I have seen and other podcasters have talked about. If ACC falls apart, all indications is that if the remaining members of the ACC reforms, the 1st scenario) Stanford and Cal. (never were liked in the first place by the ACC) could come back and join up with Wash. St. and Ore. St. to rebuild the PAC. 2nd scenario) Stanford and Cal. gets an invite to the B1G conference and the B1G might have a strong West Division. When the TV contract for the BIG12 comes up, this might be the best time for Wash. St. and Ore. St. to join up if they haven't reformed the PAC conference.
PAC 2's options are Join Big 12 or Join ACC. Other than that all of their Options SUCK and will not happen.
They will stay INDY for 2 years... then the Invites will come. Expect Big 12.
@@Awalker5000 Stanford and Cal were "not Liked" They were Voted IN 12 to 3. The 3 that Voted against are LEAVING. Delusional.
There is NO New PAC 12 Option including Former PAC 12 schools other than the PAC 2.
No. the PAC 2 will join the Big 12 in 2 years most likely or the ACC. That is the Best Possible Path Forward for the PAC 2.
@@MercerKnowsBall I am a Beaver fan & I hope that would happen, but in 2 years if it doesn't they will have to rebuild. They can't afford to stay independent after two years. An invite may happen, but the ACC doesn't seem likely. The B12 i less likely. The B12 is looking east to the ACC teams and has shown no interest in the PAC2 schools. Stanford and CAL would likely vote not to add OSU & WSU, they didn't like them being in the same conference in the PAC12.
The ACC would make a run at UCONN if they were poached. And your SEC/BIG would be flipped. You’re underplaying the AAU and SECs preference of rivalries.
Exactly.
In reality, the SEC goes to 20 with FSU, Clemson, NC State, VT.
Big Ten goes to 24 with UVA, UNC, GT, Miami, Cal, Stanford.
After 2030 I could see Hawaii and AFA being in the AAC and possibly Boise Also
Don't think acc would lose much inthe acc contract with thier espn contracy. As long as they maintain 15 teams as the contact require and the accn pickings up viewer and funds collected from departing teams. Thinking the acc reestablished it self and just need to win. Winning is where the money is.
Why would espn throw away the acc when they make money broadcasts sports. What should get rid of the acc and broadcast group 5 sports? Don't see that happening.
I think you're underestimating the collapse of the ACC. The TV contract will be renegotiated by ESPN when Florida State and Clemson leave. And those 2 teams make up an outsized share of the TV value.
The new contract will be decidedly less than the Big 12 contract. So any team in the ACC who can get an invite to the Big 12, will leave as well.
I see 4-6 teams going to the the power 2. And an additional 4-6 going to the Big 12. This means the top 8-12 teams from the ACC will be gone.
The leftovers will no longer be considered P4.
The ACC will still be around, but they will be a G7 conference. They will poach the AAC. But I see Cal and Stanford leaving to join PAC, who will also poach the MWC.
The ACC and PAC will both be G7. They'll be the top of the G7, but they'll be G7.
The Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 will all be at 20 or 22. And the PAC and ACC will be next.
On the MWC, I think the PAC 2 will try to get the top 9 teams to dissolve the conference and join the PAC. To avoid exit fees. And then add Cal and Stanford. It could include all of the MWC in a reverse merger. But I think the MWC will be gone by 2030.
We certainly could be.
But we both believe the ACC will still be around and there will only be a P2 by 2030. Big12 will be the best of the rest, but that’s what they’ll be.
Great show guys.
Thanks!
Id like to see Buffalo move out of the MAC at some point. Maybe with an agreement to spend more money on athletics a spot opens up for them in a weaker ACC as a PITT replacement
6 conferences, ~24 teams each.
👍
If SEC burns The Big Ten:
SEC: Clemson, Florida State, UNC, UVA, Miami, Georgia Tech, NC State and VTech.
Georgia Tech isn't happening. Louisville in there place.
Georgia Tech left the SEC. And SEC still mad at this and denied them several time in the past
The PAC will be back with SDSU the top invitee. Cal and Stanford next. Followed by Utah and UCLA. I like Air Force that brings added value. The PAC family will be regrouped by 2030.
That is certainly an ambitious take….
Based on your logic and what is left on the table according to your analysis, the Big 12 will jump to 20 teams, but you only have a total of 18 teams. For the SEC, there is nothing out there that will boost every team's revenue if they came in. If the SEC does decide to expand, it'll be for territory and will only take the flagship schools in UNC and UVA. Therefore, teams 19 and 20 for the Big 12 will be NC State and VT. Honestly, Louisville should be selected over Pitt.
The ACC will add OSU and WSU to add to solid power 5 programs and add west coast teams. If they are smart they will add teams until they get 20 schools. SDSU, UNLV UCONN, USF, Tulane, Memphis and Rice would all be potential schools.
They WILL get to 20 schools for All Sports. It has been their PLAN for this Post Expansion/Depletion Period since 9 years ago.
You really dont think that the ACC will have to build a west wing for calford? They cannot be on an island forever.
We do not.
They chose the ACC as it currently is. They knew what they were getting into and chose to go that direction (literally and figuratively).
@@TheBigMountainPodcast if travel become more expensive for Olympic sports then they got a problem
@@TheBigMountainPodcast ACC will be NATIONWIDE in 2030.
@@tylernelson3343 Oh, its a BIG problem. I don't know the figures for Stanford and Cal. But for UCLA to move to B1G, their travel budget for all Olympic Sports jumped between $10- 15 Million. So for Stanford and Cal. heading over to the East Coast for League Contests?? Yikes!! I don't know if a TV network is paying the travel costs. Washington and Oregon got their travel costs paid for by the FOX TV Network for joining the B1G.
Money is clear
My “Plan A” for the next wave of realignment
Big 10:
Utah Stanford, UVA, UNC, FSU, Clemson
SEC:
NCST, Virginia Tech, Louisville, West Virginia
Big XII:
15 schools (Utah to big ten)
Boston College
Syracuse
Pitt
SMU
California
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami
UConn
Wrong
Why would Bigten or sec add Notre dame unless they joined?? Some years Teams are playing Ohio state / Oregon/ USC / Michigan/ Washington/ / Penn state : why would Bigten add that to their schedule?? Unless they're in conference. It almost kills your chance at college playoff. There are 2 many ebs and flows in schedule. Watch USC this year, the schedule is way too tough for anyone adding LSU and having Notre dame. Also : BYU and Colorado?? Are you serious. Less 4 stars want to go to Big12. Watch mid level bigten / SEC teams like Rutgers / Missouri steal more and more 4 stars from Big12 and ACC. Unless your state local, more and more 4 stars will go to Bigten and Sec.
The B1G wants Notre Dame badly!!!! Its due to the revenue Notre Dame can produce and its Proximity to the other B1G schools. Notre Dame is in South Bend, Indiana.
Folks in Corvallis have little to no interest in all of the Mountain West schools. The Pac 2 would much of the State schools: Boise St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Colorado St, and Utah St. Then maybe UNLV, maybe Air Force. Then, they should pluck some AAC southern schools like Tulane and UTSA. Get the league back to 12 teams so they dpnt jave to change the name
No way they pass over the Vegas market for Utah State. If it were only 5 then UNLV would be in. But they can’t afford 5 with exit fees. Gotta be 9+ or none.
No Memphis?
Your ACC prediction IGNORES a Huge Factor for the ACC, which is the COMPOSITION CLAUSE of their TV Contract.
If the ACC has 14 schools in All Sports (ANY 14 by the way) its TV Contract Payout CANNOT be REDUCED.
It also ignores TONS of FACTS you still remain ignorant about for the ACC that POSITIVELY Affect it's POWER and Future Success.
If Mountain West wants to add Oregon St. & Washington St. it needs to add Tulane , Rice, UTSA and/or Texas St.
No Memphis?
None of those schools are leaving their current conference that pays more for a conference both not established and no media deal involving increase revenue to counter the economic expenditures that will incur for schools east of the Mountain Time Zone. That is just facts.
@@michaelwall3393 The money is there if you look more closely. Oregon State & Washington State have money from PAC 12, CW is looking for something to televise, TNT appears to be losing the NBA. The schedule can be arranged so that Tulane, UTSA, Rice and Texas St travel is not burdensome. A creative schedule & playoff format can also make it more interesting. And Apple is very interested in adding steaming to the package.The Mountain/PAC conference needs to get on it now before this opportunity disappears.
@@jacksonmars3389 Memphis aligns better with All Coasts Conference (ACC)
OSU / WSU are better off Independent. No one from the Mtn West is winning a NC .
You lost me at irregardless ….
Stanford, Notre Dame & North Carolina to B1G 10. Florida St., Clemson, Virginia, & Virginia Tech to SEC. Nebraska, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, Duke & San Diego St. to Big XX. Private equity used to allure schools plus obtain competitive TV contract. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Oregon St., Washington St. , Colorado St., USF, Tulane, Memphis, & Rice to All Coasts Conference (ACC).
UTSA, Texas St., & New Mexico St. to Mountain West.
Would welcome UTSA and TST to the MWC. Bothe would be great adds, the the conference wants a third time zone and the travel (same for the schools).
UNC will join the SEC if and when they leave the ACC.
@@jansonroberts2616 The B1G Ten covets research institutions & Notre Dame. Notre Dame covets its relationship with USC & Stanford. Stanford covets research & Olympic Sports. Stanford likes the research triangle in North Carolina. I know that sports fans discount educational goals these days but there are billions of dollars involved in research. It is important. The SEC has not been as interested in research in the past compared to certain other schools. North Carolina is coveted by the B1G Ten, SEC & Big XX although for somewhat different reasons. Which conference do you think North Carolina would prefer and why?
@@Joe-m2d Notre Dame will not join the B1G b 2030 if ever. So getting Stanford does NOTHING for the B1G.
B1G needs FSU and Texas A&M if they can get them and 4 OPEN Spot for LATER to try to get Notre Dame then.
FSU & Clemson headed to SEC (imo). UNC & UVA(?) then ND (at some point) to B1G. After that by 2030, a super conference will be created. The SEC&B1G will purge lower tier FB teams (Vandy, Indiana, etc) with top Big12 teams and others joining SuperConf. All speculation of course.
LOL, no SEC teams get purged. There are by laws that protect the membership in the SEC. I’d be surprised if the B1G didn’t have by laws for their members as well.
@@jansonroberts2616 - Founding members such as Purdue and Northwestern cannot be purged. It takes a 70% vote to purge anybody else.
@@jansonroberts2616 The super league won't have Vandy, Indiana, etc so purge is the wrong term. The good FB teams will leave SEC/B1G for super league while the other sports will remain competing in their respective conferences
@@johnwoodburn There can be no super league unless congress steps in and gives a super league antitrust exemption. It’s a million times more likely that Ohio State and Michigan leave the B1G to join the SEC. In other words, it ain’t happening in our life time.
@@johnwoodburn There is no Super League. It was an Interwebs RUMOR based on Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.
I'm not buying this whole "ACC schools leaving for the Big12". For the BIG10/SEC? Sure. IMO, the ACC will still be strong enough to add east Big12 teams if they lose any combo of Clemson/FSU/UNC. If the ACC does lose schools I look for them to expand with Big12 teams like WVA, Cincy, and UCF. I would not be surprised if they go after Kansas/Iowa St. I don't see a complete PAC12 type of collapse.
The Big 12 is starting a brand new TV contract. With the GOR the Big 12 has, I doubt those three would be able to buy their way out.
Fully agree that the ACC won’t have a PAC12 type collapse.
But pulling B12 schools over to the ACC is another animal entirely.
I don’t think it’s that far fetched. The Big12 and ACC will be comparable once Clemson and FSU leave. However, the back half of the Big12 is what brings its value way down compared to the ACC. Cincy, TCU, Houston don’t bring anything to the conference. That’s the problem the Big12 has. The backend of the conference is really bringing it down.
@@al73r3g0 It is a 5 year Contract for the Big 12. It ENDS and the ACC Contract is STILL GOING for 7 more years. What BUYOUT?
@@TheBigMountainPodcast How so? ACC has an Unlimited Pro Rata for all the teams it wants. ACC Revenue will be UP by more than $20 Million per school Next Year and every year going forward. Having a Higher Payout and a Pro Rata is HOW the Big 12 was able to Pull PAC 12 teams. ACC has the $$$ to give former PAC 12 teams the kind of payouts they THOUGHT they could get in the PAC 12. Pulling Big 12 schools is already Lined Up. That Utah LEAK that they had to QUASH is based on REALITY.
The Academic Athletic Conference
ACC East: in regional pods
UConn
BC
Syracuse
Duke
WF
Pitt
GT
USF
ACC West: in regional pods
Tulane
SMU
Rice
Colorado St (over Memphis)
Stanford
Cal
Oregon St
WASU
To borrow from the SEC's slogan, "We just read more" Aw crap, the ACC slogan is still being worked on. ha ha
Delusional: Colorado St. over Memphis.
I think you both missed on the PAC2/MW relationship. It's not about "winning", "picking", "merger" "reverse merger", "denial", the conference brands, or anything else, it's about the money. What path will maximize the assets and income streams now and in the future. That's it.
That unworthy Louisville smacked the shit out of Notre Dame last year lmao
EAST: Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, USF. WEST: Tulane, SMU, SDSU, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State.
So Louisville in the Big 12?
So Memphis just drops football.
You guys are so off base
I hate to play Devil’s advocate, but I think there will be more value in a Pac-12 with 8 schools than in a complete merger with the Mountain West.
OSU and WSU wouldn’t have to split the revenue with the smaller brands and could keep themselves somewhat competitive with the Big 12 and ACC.
Enjoy the content though. 👍👍👍
Counter thoughts are always welcome here on TBM.
We enjoy respectful discourse!
@@TheBigMountainPodcast can you give us some speculation about what will happen with linear television in regards to cable and satellite television and how will streaming services could play a role in college football
No way either FSU/Clemson head North, they are traditional Southern schools, they would be more likely to help create a SE division of the Big 12. Their fans/alumni are not going to go to Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, or NJ in the winter, bookmark it.
Excellent show guys. The only one I might disagree with is U-Conn. Why? Because of basketball, they might be better off staying put in the Big East until either the ACC or Big XII come calling. I especially agree with the Big 10 grabbing FSU & Clemson and the MW adding OSU & WSU
If UConn was a football only add, then it makes perfect sense to put them in Conference USA.
Thx for the comment.
UConn is interesting for football. Staying independent is not going to continue to work for them long term.
UConn to ACC. maybe even Liberty to get back into Virginia. With all that Buyout money. ACC should go after West Virginia and UCF. I think Miami stays in ACC. so it would be UConn, BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Liberty, Wake Forest, Duke, GT, USF, UCF, Miami, SMU, Cal, Stanford. that sixteen. then add Cinn, San Diego St, Houston, and if the big two don't get them Kansas.
If you knew ACC Revenue would be UP by more than $20 Million per school NEXT YEAR would you still be lowballing the ACC so much?
Because... you should know that ACC Revenue will be UP by more than $20 Million NEXT YEAR and every year moving forward.
The ACC as you describe it is not a Power Conference anymore. There would then be no benefit for Cal, Stanford and SMU to stay. I see them coming home and joining up with OSU and WSU and taking the best MW and American teams available to get to 8 and then you have a good conference on par with the ACC without the travel.
Or the ACC should go after OSU and WSU and add the best MWC schools to form a true West Cost pod.
Add Louisville and NCSU to the Big 12.
I was completely surprised by the fsu and Clemson prediction to the BIG, when I have been hearing more from insiders that both those teams go to the BIG X12.
We firmly believe Big 12 talk is just smoke and misdirection.
Big Ten by 2030.
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Michigan State
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Indiana
Purdue
Maryland
Rutgers
Nebraska
USC
Oregon
Washington
UCLA
Iowa
Notre Dame
Florida State
Clemson
Stanford
Two of these options to get to 24: Miami, Georgia Tech, Kansas, or Utah
Wow. 24!
Nicely done!
@@TheBigMountainPodcast 22 unless u add two of these four. ASU, Kansas, Utah or Cal.... Just to help the late night window. but a texas school might have a chance.
FSU and Texas A&M and DONE at 20. Nobody goes to 24 before 2030. 20 works EASY. And Notre Dame is not coming before 2030 IF EVER.
They can't make the schedules work YET and still won;t be able to before 2030.
I would take Cal. and Georgia Tech. for 24.. I just don't see Utah being in the B1G unless they grab BYU to come with them from the BIG12.
@@Awalker5000 But adding additional schools from States that the B1G is already in does not add nearly as much REVENUE as adding a school from a State the B1G is NOT currently in.
You have to understand that the Conference Network is the PRIMARY VEHICLE that has helped the B1G, SEC and ACC gain REVENUE over and above the Big 12 and PAC 12.
It does not increase REVENUE for the B1G to get more teams from California for example now that it has TWO. 1 team from Arizona adds MORE Value than a 3rd and 4th Team from California would add COMBINED. Especially when you consider the B1G can instead add TWO New States. And the larger the State the Better.
So there is NO REASON to take Utah and BYU/ No Reason to take Kansas and Kansas St. No reason to take Arizona and Arizona St, UNC and NC St, UVa ad VPI.
Exceptions have been made for LARGE STATES like California and Texas with USC and UCLA and Texas and A&M. Exceptions will not be made for smaller States.
There is some SYNERGY for the SEC and ACC to EACH take 1 of the 2 main teams in a Rivalry from the same State because the ACC and SEC have an agreement to PLAY all In State Rivalry Games. And this means BOTH the ACC and SEC Contracts get 1/2 of the Rivalry game. It extends each Contract by a highly viewed Half Game for those teams.
So the SEC taking UNC hurts the ACC less if the ACC still has NC St because the ACC still gets that game every other year. And if the SEC were to take Kansas is makes more sense for the ACC to take Kansas St and it already makes sense for the ACC to take Oklahoma St for the additional Half Game on the schedule/Contract.
But as of NOW there is NO INCENTIVE for the B1G to do such a thing. The States are not large enough for the Conference Networks, the TV Markets are not large enough for the TV Markets and there is no such SYNERGY for the B1G.
Wrong. Will be 60 teams in the SEC and 60 in the Big 10.
🤯
Does the Big 10 (and the SEC) even want to be the Big 20? Keep in mind that having more teams means less money for the remaining teams that are already in their current TV deals. Can the Big 10, Big 12 & SEC Conferences actually kick out marginal football programs to stay at or below 16 Schools?
If we're talking by 2030 and limiting to 20, ND and whatever ACC team will be in the B10, Clemson not happening. ND can't stay independent long term, that ship has sailed.
In the rebuild/ merging, it it is also about getting the best media $$$ for the teams that are in that new conference, That may not be able to happen if you just merge the two conferences.
Disagree entirely with the SBC 😂 like there are several programs that would jump to the SBC especially after this year and if that trend continues
Four 24 team conferences: Big 10, SEC, Big 12 and an unspecified fourth. Everyone else will be an independent
I dont understand how Liberty would still be stuck in CUSA 💀💀
Thanks for the series and video. Now I’ll disagree! What I’m going to say is a combo of what’s happened before, what i’m hearing, and what i logically think by 2030.
realignment starts at the top. the top conferences eat first and the top teams find a home before other teams do. not every conference approaches things the same way. The Pac-10 took nobody in 2010 because they couldn’t get Texas. I emailed Larry Scott saying that would be a mistake. I said take the other 5 teams and force Texas to leave or rot. The Big 10 wanted Notre Dame a few times in the past and couldn’t get them. They wanted UNC and UVA last decade, but took Maryland and Rutgers to still be able to expand east and south. The Big 10 will go with backup plans.
I’m hearing there’s no true chalk for ACC teams with all the changes and things in the air, but I’m going with what changes I think will still happen.
The past shows what conference priorities are. The SEC wants teams in states that border their conference. They won’t do anything wild. They haven’t cared much about research and academics, but recent adds have helped there. Sankey says he wants basketball to be better.
The Big 10 wanted to go national. They want to go south. They like big universities that have academics and research. Oregon and Nebraska aren’t that stuff, but they’re flexible. They took UCLA to get USC. They took Oregon to get Washington.
The Big 12 wanted to go more national. They got
into bigger states and 8 of the 9 largest universities in the conference are 2023 and 2024 adds.
Part of this deal is which teams have fans that will subscribe to conference networks, but it’s also which states can increase the conference network revenue the most with the higher feeds when you add an in-state team. Another aspect is conferences are looking at how college age kids will decrease starting in 2025 and they want to get into states to get new kids to go to their conference schools.
No matter what happens in court, the Big 10 wants to get answers from Notre Dame and UNC first. I think
both will say no. I don’t think it ends there! The Big 10 isn’t the Pac-10, Pac-12, or past Big 12.
The Big 10 will take FSU and Clemson because they can get them. They’re not exactly what they want, but they meet some goals and are better in other ways.
Notre Dame was written into the Big 10 TV agreement. They know what they can get. They don’t need valuation talks. The NBC deal pays less when Notre Dame has a worse TV schedule. I don’t think the Big 10 will sign a game agreement with the Irish. They want them to be a member. The Big 10 has talked about going to 10 games. Fleck has things in his contract that differentiate between 9 and 10 conference games. That might be when USC says they won’t play ND. The ND schedule prestige is going down when teams start to leave. Not only will they get less from NBC, but ACC rights will go down. Rats are going to jump off the ship. Even in 2024, ND probably has to go 11-1 to make the CFP. That’s going to get harder. Maybe the SEC plays the Irish to keep them out of the Big 10, but even they’re probably at 9 in 2026.
The walls will close in on ND. We already know the Big 10 likes Miami and the advertisers support them. That’s 22. I’m confident in that. They might go to 24, but that’s cloudier. No, I don’t think the ACC stays much of a conference.
I agree with the SEC takes from the ACC. I just think they bite the bullet on VT and NC State to get UNC and UVA. I don’t think they stop there. They have a chance to be the blue blood basketball conference. Kansas and Duke make one sport a killer and they keep a few rivalries going with other teams. Just because the SEC has always given full shares in the past doesn’t mean they have to do it going forward. That’s 22.
The Big 12 is going to steal from the ACC. They have 15 right now with me. Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, and GT do a lot to help them. That’s 19.
The ACC has Cal, Stanford, BC, Wake, and SMU right now. I’ll get back to the power conferences later.
UConn probably isn’t leaving the Big East unless they get into a power conference that can pay better. Geographically the MAC makes the most sense of G5, but they don’t pay well.
I’ll talk MWC, but not the other G5’s. There could be a full Pac-2 and MWC merger, but they’re doing everything they can to avoid that. The Pac-2 hopes to get into a power conference and they really only want to take certain teams. I’m confident that the Cougs and Beavs will be with Boise, AF, CO State, Fresno, UNLV, and San Diego. I think they want some AAC schools, but they wouldn’t get them without the ACC blowing up. The first 8 will happen. The AAC depends on the other moving parts.
Those MWC leftovers would probably take UTEP and NM State to get to 8.
This is where I try to tie up loose ends.
I have 22 in the SEC. They’re not going to take any of the ACC leftovers. They’re not going into Arizona. Colorado and Ohio are adjoining states, but I doubt they go for the Buffs and Cincy. I doubt they want TT or Houston.
I had 22 in the Big 10. They wanted to get into Texas in the past. They won’t get the horns or ags. i doubt they take TT or Houston unless they know they’re really ramping up research. Going to 24 before 2030 means wanting Calford, the AZ schools, or the Buffs or Utes. Nobody checks all the boxes. The Texas schools have less research and academics than the others. Utah is a smaller population state. Colorado and Arizona are OK, but they don’t drive TV. Calford couldn’t get TV support the last time, but they have research, academics, and many Big 10 people in the area. I’ll say Big 10 at a huge discount for Calford.
I still have 19 for the Big 12. They can pick between SMU, BC, Wake, and G5 teams. I’ve never said this before, but I’ll say UConn to the Big 12 and probably at a slight discount.
Some things need to stay the same. We can count on the MAC being the MAC!
The Pac-2 will have their 8 and steal from the AAC’s western front.
The MWC will have at least 8 with 6 leftovers, plus UTEP and NM State. They might get more out of the central time zone.
I wouldn’t be shocked if we had the ACC form a conference. They’d get the best of the rest of AAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt.
That leaves room for another conference that takes in AAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt.
Big 10 and SEC
Big 12
Pac-2 and Friends and ACC-2 and new Friends
MWC, AAC, and MAC
and no independents!
"The Big 12 is going to steal from the ACC." Not a chance. Only the UNINFORMED believe that BS can happen.
Louisville would be a B12 add before Pitt.
Can the SEC stand that much dilution? I can see two teams, but can they swallow all four and make the numbers work?
Look at it this way:
SEC stays @ 16, yet B1G adds FSU, Clemson, ND, Va., VT, NC, & NCSU. So now they're @ 25. Who's stopping them adding Duke & Miami? B1G is now 11 schools MORE than the SEC.
A - WHO is left that is worth anything to help the SEC grow?
B - Could SEC teams change sides?
C - What happens to the rest of the ACC & XII Conference? What about any other conferences?
Obviously, with 27 (or more) schools, scheduling will become interesting to figure out. But, what's gonna stop them from complete control?
As I've posted in other threads, the SEC's got some figuring out to do:
A - Do you grab FSU/Clemson to stop B1G in the SE? If you do that, you would now have more recruiting competition in those 2 states.
B - Do you go NC/Va. to expand conference geography?
C - Do you take schools strong in fb or do you take schools who are better in other sports to boost them?
D - Do grab XII teams?
Add Louisville to the Big XII
OK, I listened all the way through. Good job on your conference analysis of the CUSA, AAC, SBC, MAC, and MWC. It is difficult to predict what will happen more than 5 years from now. You are brave souls. I have 3 points where I must disagree.
First, in the fist year after the fee was increased from $5,000 to $5,000,000, 2 schools have paid the fee! This is at a far higher rate than what has occurred over the past 20 years. Based upon past history, more schools will opt to move from FCS to FBS, not less.
Second, you have UCONN joining CUSA. If you mean that they will join football only, then that might be possible, but there is just no way that UCONN will join the CUSA in all sports by 2030. They just left the American in all sports, so they won't be going to the CUSA in all sports.
Third, I disagree that there will be a Mountain West merger.. I congratulate you on the fine arguments that you made, and I will concede that it is possible, but I'm simply not convinced that it is probable. If it happens before 2030, and it might, then you get the big W, and will have earned it.
Thanks Terry
Thanks Terry.
Your 3 points are well taken. We know many people turn their nose up at a MWC PAC merger but in following the PAC and specifically OSU and Wazzu since last August, we both think it is the most likely scenario given the facts we know right now. Both sides will continue to “look at all options”. They have to say that no- It’s the correct PR move.
Great honest stuff guys, love it! Ok, for discussion, my points are 1) Notre Dame: I just don't see Notre Dame being independent much longer. A lot of this College Realignment is based on Notre Dame. Although like you said, the Notre Dame fan and booster base is pretty incredible. The TV revenue is so much larger, its pretty much the reason Notre Dame has partnered up with the ACC. The B1G conference wants them badly, and with B1G money increasing every year. Notre Dame I see will be part of the B1G conference sooner than later. 2) The ACC: Oh boy, that is a very interesting situation going on over there. From what I am seeing and hearing, if the ACC does in fact fall apart and manages to reform itself into another conference, FOX will be battling for areas that its not in, like Florida, its the reason the B1G is wanting a Florida school. The FOX network wants to get into the Florida TV market. Another scenario that I am seeing, the B1G is now looking at Georgia Tech. Like I said, the FOX network is wanting areas that the network is not being broadcasted in. 3) On the lines of the ACC falling apart #2, I am seeing another scenario of which Stanford and Cal, going to the 'new' PAC conference or getting an invite to the B1G conference...... On another note, this blows me away, the 24'-25' bowl season is going to be extremely extremely interesting. Because of the existing agreements, the 'departed' PAC12 teams are eligible for 'PAC12' bowl games..
We thought you would enjoy this one and we appreciate your thoughts.
We have not yet talked about eh PAC bowl agreements. It is VERY interesting.
1) Doesn't matter. Notre Dame sees it. Plans made for it from 9 years ago will make it so.
2) ACC does not fall apart. Plans made 9 years ago will make it so. You have no idea what those plans are because like EVERYBODY ELSE on the Internet you don;t know ANYTHING TRUE about the ACC or ESPN. You are using BAD DATA so you get NONSENSE RESULTS.
3) The PAC is DEAD. There is never going to be a P5 PAC to go back to. There is probably never going to be a G5 PAC to go back to.
Solely with regard to your negative comment concerning Notre Dame's home schedule, were you aware that Notre Dame is doubling its ticket prices for every seat in the stadium for Louisville, which you condescendingly describe as an unworthy opponent? Shouldn't you rethink your comment? I guess no one cares about the real fans who actually attend games, as the only people who count are the couch potatoes who do arm curls with their cheap beers.
Steve is a johnny come lately to the B1G, so he isn't aware that Michigan, which led a B1G boycott of Notre Dame forced independence upon Notre Dame, and now envy the success that they caused! Notre Dame never CHOSE to be Independent. They were forced by the B1G to be Independent. Read your damn history. You don't have to like Notre Dame, but you should at least be honest about them.
Love it Terry! This is Steve come lately. I grew up hating Notre Dame even prior to PSU joining the B1G. In my family you had to love PsU and hate ND.
You people still cry about Fielding Yost, yet play the great great grandsons of the sheeets down south who used to lynch Catholics. (See: How Columbus Day first came about.)
It is also being aired on Peacock because Peacock knows that is the Largest Viewership Game against an Opponent who OTHERWISE would NEVER Subscribe to Peacock.
Both Notre Dame and Peacock know where a CASH GRAB can be found on their Schedule.
When Louisville kicks Notre Dames Butt AGAIN it will be 1 of like 3 or 4 schools with a Lifetime Winning Record over Notre Dame.
As a Notre Dame alumnus I’m not fond of this show, so goodbye
ACC should also invite Oregon St and WASU for that western division.
NOPE - B1G + FSU and Texas A&M - 20 teams - SEC + Kansas, UNC, Virginia, Duke, Clemson - 20 teams
ACC + WVU, Utah, Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Cincinnati, either Arizona of Arizona St, Colorado - 20 teams (+ Notre Dame for 21)
Big 12 + 13 teams for All Sport (20 Teams) + 1 more (Gonzaga for 21)
Remaining Baylor, Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa St, BYU, Central Florida and 1 of the Arizona Schools
Incoming Oregon St, Washington St, Boise St, San Diego St, Memphis, Tulane, UConn, South Florida are the LOCKS
Incoming LIKELY but NOT LOCKS - UNLV, Fresno St, East Carolina Southern Miss, Alabama-Birmingham
EDIT: I should have said ARMY and NAVY over all of the teams in the LIKELY but not LOCKS section.
ACC is clearly head and shoulders above the Big 12 in EVERY POSSIBLE WAY if you know the FACTS. Most people DO NOT KNOW the FACTS.
If you know the FACTS you know the Big 12 is more than a DECADE BEHIND the ACC and that it WILL NOT HAVE that DECADE to catch up.
ACC made Survival Move over 9 years ago that you have NOT FACTORED into your THOUGHT PROCESS because the ACC KNEW this was coming 9 years ago.
Instead of being REACTIONARY the ACC has been PROACTIVE with moves from 9 years ago, 2 years ago, 1 year ago and has moves COMING Next Year, 2 years from Now, 7 years from Now and 12 years from Now.
And that is just the MOVES the ACC has already made... it says NOTHING about what else it can still do LIKE Expand the Football Schedule to NINE GAMES which is HOW the Big 12 PRETENDS it has a Value similar to the ACC.