An Economic Vibecheck With Kyla Scanlon
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- Опубліковано 3 лип 2024
- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Kyla Scanlon’s Book, “In This Economy?” www.penguinrandomhouse.com/bo...
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:19 In This Economy?
07:44 How Are The Vibes Right Now
11:43 Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis?
14:21 VanEck Ad
15:02 Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued)
19:45 Declinism & Doomerism
27:23 Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S.
32:46 Political Polarization
34:16 The Origin Of Money
36:10 MMT & Debt
40:48 Elder Care & Child Care Costs
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - Розваги
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
Simple: the 10% who own assets are hugely benefiting from inflation while the rest of us a getting hit hard by inflating necessities. The rich are able to bid up Swift tickets and travel costs leaving the rest of us behind. And so the Middle Class is evaporating even as aggregate numbers look good. This is a slow motion Depression for most of us.
They don't get it. I understand, I lived that life in 08. It's a bubble world. In 08 during the recession, in their world, it's not the sky is falling. It's spend money and buy everything you want. They don't understand the real world.
This isn't rocket science, we live in a kshaped economy right now. Those who have high income/assets are doing great, those who don't own assets or even own a home with a lower income, are drowning. This is how it always starts because we've made wealth inequality so bad and the primary driver of consumer spend is the upper quintile. Which is why the economy has been resilient.
Wealth inequality causes inflation.
This is my interpretation too.
@@FkSeditiousChristofascists not always
I find Scanlon's chipper optimism rather naive and unnuanced. Insisting that the real suffering that large swaths of the American populace endure while daily navigating the cost of living crisis is really just bad "vibes" is ultimately a kind of empty gaslighting.
right wingers: THERES A RECESSION AAAAAAAAAAAH I HAVE NO MONEY AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
also right wingers: give millions to trump after he was convicted of 34 felonies
good point Kyla re impact of Fed rate hikes on housing supply, even if perhaps an unintended consequence..
Investors are still in denial about the fundamentals of the economy. They expect rares will soon be cut and believe the topline GDP numbers signal a strong economy. However, they dont. Credit card balences are maxed out, more credit is hard to come by for consumers, a ton of companies are about to beforced into refinancing their debs at far higher interest and the regional bank backstop program is out this month. There's also the fact that inflation ticks higher than expected every single time the markets believe a rate cut is around the corner and a rate cut would cause a surge in inflation. The fed sees this stuff, guys. The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Whitney Eston, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Whitney Eston program is widely available online..
She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
She's mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@WhitneyEston
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Whitney's trade signal service.
thanks
Lowering the rates would actually drive inflation much higher than expected. Wealth inequality determines that those with excess income will put that into assets. Which is how we actually got here.
The housing crisis is actually a lack of affordable housing. That includes a shortage of inventory in the resale market and the additional cost of building new housing.
thanks for having me on!
Read the room lady
Thanks for being on. Always like your perspective.
A version of Ed Yardeni…ho dee do dee do .. everything is OK, the numbers are good, wealth chasm is not so bad, all positive….
Note that housing is a diametrically opposed issue when comparing commercially owned residential and private non-business. If value goes up it is bad for Mom, but good for those who use the assets to leverage up...
From the comments section you'd think Kyla was super bullish on the economy. However, that's not really what I took away from it at all.
A lot of haters in the comments. I thought this was a great interview and Kyla seems very intelligent.
If you use CPI formula that was used in the 70s US GDP has actually been negative for a couple decades
The way Kyla says things like "negativity" and "positivity" sounds exactly like Olaf Carlson-Wee. What is that accent..? Other than that, thanks for the great interview :)
Private school in California.
Autism.
These people act like economic numbers that are printed during a recession, haven't had 10-20% swings in the revised numbers years later. I used to track this data manually, and got mostly initial prints, until a client asked me about an issue. When I looked back again at my numbers, vs the revisions the govt did. Holy f. Numbers change drastically over the years.
I like how people are telling you everything is OK, due to data points that are revised an insane amount after the fact. Gdp numbers for 2008 were good too. After they did the final revision in 2018, it was actually a catastrophe. But the initial print was positive. 2018 revision? Insanely negative. People today don't understand data.
Unpopular opinion: I always find Kyla's worldview quite simplistic. Having a simplistic world view is dangerous. If you want to really understand the economy, inflation and what money is, follow Lyn Alden and buy her book instead: Broken Money.
If you want to know what the liberals are trying to spin, Kyla's useful. Otherwise, yeah, Lyn Alden is who you want to read.
Beat me to it. She's def a product of the TikTok rocket to prominence.
Pretty obvious, she eats the mainstream narrative. If the economy is so good, why is rent eating up an increasing percentage of disposable income? It would be stagnant. And that's just one data point. Why are credit card delinquency rate at 08 levels? Etc. It's wild hearing how bad they are at data.
Girl has only experienced the market going up in her adult life. She’s been toeing the line for the current administration for a while.
@@Pottsburg Lives in Denver too. Very much a hivemind of hipster navel gazers.
2 different economies: rich home owners not impacted by OER hikes killing renters and locked in a low mortgage rates VS the rest of us dying in the former nonexistent middle class and worse off with absurd costs for everything under the sun and an out of touch culture and economic system.
When they say lower income has massive gains, I'm positive these people have no friends in that income bracket. Been there, lived in your world I know how you people are. You never go into the real world.
Raising rates won't make houses cheaper.... OK. Just end me now. I don't want to live in a world where people are this stupid.
Like clearly her academic is micro
re: the money argument. The first view (money belongs to .gov) is how the _SYSTEM_ works. The second view (money is the private sectors) is the emergent view, that is, the way it _REALLY_ works. Both systems are valid, but at the limit the private model would be the one that I would bet on, money has existed a lot longer than this system has.
unemployment rate is one of the most skewed numbers out there.
When they started the interview talking about misunderstanding of definitions, I thought they were going to go a completely different direction. Didn’t even call this out or how the definition of inflation changed over the years so that inflation is now equal to CPI
This is the most embarrassing piece of content I have viewed on your channel. With all due respect to your guest, comparing the stock market to the health of the economy and then continuing to double down by referencing the unemployment rate unfortunately discredits her opinion from that point moving forward. Honestly, I’m shocked (almost impressed) by her disassociation with reality. One would only need to ask her what the labor force participation rate is to completely undermine her assessment.
@@seanchristophersapp She's got looks. That's all that matters in "Influencer" land at this point.
Amazes me how mad people get when she tells the truth. Good interview
Because they are living on the wrong side of a k-shaped recovery
It’s funny when Jack was talking “spectrum”, she got a look on her face like are you talking about me. Haha
Economy's so awesome, gvt deficit spending is 6 plus percent of GDP. Just like Keynes said it should be.. DURING A RECESSION. Ever think they might lying, directly or by structure? Add to the fact govt counts what it borrows as GDP, the more they borrow, the more GDP they record.
Don’t waste time on this
Taylor Swift? Wtf?
Too young & inexperienced to have a full encompassing view....not much to take from this interview. Not on the same standard as others.
Too many pessismists and angry bears crying in the chat.
That gal is talking too fast for me. I'd like her to pronounce words more clearly also. Like they teach you in acting classes. Other than that she's probably clever enough, I guess...❤
26:35 how can you be so wrong? How many UA-cam creators have said that it's just easier to be positive about every single product because people like that content rather than actually being realistic and telling you that things suck? God, I hate this. She regurgitates mainstream ideas without any introspection
Jack here. I don't know about products but when it comes to economic and financial journalism, please take my word for it that Kyla and I are correct that doom sells. The content on this channel is very balanced with regards to the number of bullish/bearish videos but the bearish videos get more views. If you don't believe me just see what our most popular videos are. And I suspect the same is true for most financial media.
-Jack
product reviews and economic forecasts are 2 very different things
Home price to median income is over 7, not 4. This interview is nonsensical.
This is the most embarrassing piece of content I have viewed on your channel. With all due respect to your guest, comparing the stock market to the health of the economy and then continuing to double down by referencing the unemployment rate unfortunately discredits her opinion from that point moving forward. Honestly, I’m shocked (almost impressed) by her disassociation with reality. One would only need to ask her what the labor force participation rate is to completely undermine her assessment.
Not a very useful interview
Whose daughter is this?
Nothing spectacular here, what's the basis of her popularity?