This is some really good information! Here's a comment for the algorithm, and a tab replaying the video at 0.25 speed for extra viewer retention points, also for the algorithm.
I would like to add something that im not sure many people talk about. So I had just recently started doing hourglass (solo sloop) for the first time and went from level 0 servants up to 100 in about 3 weeks, was 168 wins total. I did 2 streaks and lowered all the way to about level 80 and was seriously just cruising most of the way. At 80 or so, I decided "well maybe I should just start going for higher streaks" as I was in a situation where I had won like 15 matches in a row but was lowering at 2 the whole time. So I did just that and went for 4 streaks. First one, easy. Second one, immediate jump in enemy skill level. I dont mean like a little better, I mean gold curse ultra sweats that I had not been playing against at all. I thought, huh maybe a fluke. Next day I went again and got a 4 streak again, and then after that once again really REALLY good players. Ultimately, I went BACK to 2 streaks the rest of the way to 100 and it wasnt bad at all, but there DID seem to be a permanent "change" to my MMR due to me hitting a higher streak. I could be wrong, couldve just been a coincidence, but this would also explain why my friend who has played a total of 10 hourglass matches just to get the 10 streak commendation, is unable to play against anyone that isnt a mega sweat now after just 10 matches, whereas I went over a hundred matches against below average/average players and that only changed the instant I went for higher streaks. My main point here is it SEEMS to be the case that hitting those streaks in a lot of ways can lead to punishment for doing "good" and can thus alter your win/loss moving forward. Had I just stuck with 2 streaks and never went for 4, I probably couldve gotten to 100 FASTER cause I wouldnt have possibly ran into that stretch of clearly way better players around level 80 which definitely impacted my win loss. In the end however, I have a 60% winrate according to the sea of thieves website data so definitely a bit above average skill level. With that number, your chart does seem to indicate I should be going for 4 streaks going forward, but again I now am suspicious of even attempting such a thing due to it putting me into a higher skill bracket, when I can just win easier doing 2 streaks and with more certainty about the outcome being low risk.
That’s a fair point. There isn’t a lot known about how the matchmaker works in SoT since they said there is MMR but didn’t explain how it is calculated or how wide it can be. Also, eventually it just has to get you a game. Just watched four day one swabbies go against a full obsidian skelly curse crew in their very first match ever. So the MMR doesnt really work as intended. However, I think you are right that it ties to match you with people similar MMR or similar streaks, I just don’t have the data on it to really check anything
@KMK_SoT yeah I mean I do know based on whether or not you get the "searching for opponent" pop up when diving that allegedly implies you are gonna get someone outside of your mmr range according to a couple sources, cause it does just prefer to find a game for you, but when I had those super sweaty games after my larger streaks that wasn't coming up. Sure, I did definitely get better at pvp just from playing that much but I always felt like the opponents I was fighting were close to being around my skill level and the matches I was winning a bunch weren't like "free wins" or something. So I think it is pretty likely streaks are taken into account for your MMR cause it's really the only metric they have to base skill off of besides just your level.
Solid video. I appreciate the effort put into calculating this in a spreadsheet. I always had a rough estimate of the math around xp efficiency. I would advise players based on their skill level when best they should lower, but never had hard facts to back it up or easily explain why. Now I can send players this video in the future. Thanks, great work!
I appreciate you not only doing the math for us all, but sharing your math to allow for accountability/correction. However, I am not only already struggling following along with your numbers just in my head (if you had a whiteboard or something it would be easier for visual learners like me), but I am also getting distracted by your B-Roll/gameplay in the background. 😅 In other words, I will just take you for your word, but not treat it as gospel since I don’t have the mental capacity to confirm your numbers are correct. 😂😅 Either way, thank you for the video! (I personally would love to see you do the math similarly to how “EngineeringExplained” does his math in his car videos! That would be amazing!)
Yeah I’m awful with editing/animation so didn’t really have a good way to show all of the steps lol with my stats videos on my main channel for Overwatch I just mainly show the data I’ve collected and then a graph of that data. This one was a bit different in trying to explain how to calculate something so it was tough. Ty for the feedback and I’ll try to make it more clear if I do something like this again!
Great video! I had thought about this alot and hadn't considered the multiple coinflip scenario problem. Also worth mentioning, it would be good to factor in flag sales (bigger streaks will accumulate more flags). Lowering takes a significant time if we are talking metric/hour. Lastly (and I think this good be a really big factor), the closer you are to a 50% win rate, the longer on average your battles are, since mismatched fights will end much faster on average. Anyway, its a great project for a Masters project lol
I’m fairly certain (could be wrong) that flags will give the same servants xp no matter your streak. Emissary 5 might give more? Idk, but if I get at least a grade 5 I personally go sell it right away to bank the xp but keep my streak going. But yeah it might not be as efficient in xp/hr which is hard to calculate for reasons you mentioned
it would really help if you wrote the numbers you re talking about on screen because following it all just by listening to your voice is hard when we re not that good at math
You can make a copy of the spreadsheet I use and check out all of the formulas I used in there if you like 😁 but I’ll take that into account for next time
I really thought that having at least a 2 streak would give more xp for my winrate which if i tracked it correctly is 13 wins to 14 losses, but apparently it may not be. Well anyways i still need to work for pl and hunters before hg makes the main game too boring again.
One thing you can’t easily calculate is time. Time spent sailing to an outpost, just usually rarely feels worthwhile. I average a 90% wr solo, for this reason I will lower between 8 and 10 streaks, but I’m definitely not selling every chance I am near an outpost or it will just slow me down and kill my xp momentum for no reason.
Agree 100% for players with higher win rates. You don’t have to lower every time you’re near an outpost, but say it’s “best” for you to lower every 8 but you spawn north of Smuggle’s Bay might as well just dive again for number 9 and hope you get a closer spawn this time because it won’t have a huge impact on your xp/game
I just posted a VOD review looking at a friend’s gameplay. If you want me to check yours out and get specific tips there is a discord link in the description of that video where you can post your fight!
The win rate calculation is inaccurate. Ever since Rare allowed us to match against the same faction, the win milestone has been incorrect. When you match against the same faction, it WILL count as a battle, but it WON"T count the win. This means it technically counts as a loss.
I literally can't hit a 10 streak without getting at least 1 cheater. 😂 In my opinion it really depends on the time of the day. Sometimes there are only golden skellies and tryhards everywhere, sometimes you run into duke shipsets a few times...
Yeah I seem to run into less sweats late at night (like 1-4 AM) since there are less players in queue they probably widen the mmr to let people get games easier
Isn't faction stash level also a factor for xp gain? If so, wouldn't this scew the graph towards larger streaks for xp? (Btw, really love this kind of data driven video, amazing job!)
I believe (correct me if I’m wrong) that the faction stash resets every time you dive so it is out of your control. Although imo faction stash 5 and getting invaded is an underrated way to play. Getting that 2.5x multiplier on xp isn’t too bad, so you can level up while playing adventure
I mean, if you’re good enough for a 17 streak it’s probably fine. When you have a 90%+ win rate you can basically just lower whenever it’s convenient and it won’t make a huge difference
SoT videos haven’t been doing as well since I started posting Overwatch content there. If most of my subs are there for OW and they see a SoT video they won’t click which is bad for the algo, especially for a small channel
Except what we are trying to solve isn’t an opinion. There is a statistical best time to lower your hourglass based on your win rate which I showed in the video. “I asked 100 people what 2+2 is but got mixed results, guess I’ve gotta do the math to figure it out myself.” Same thing
asking phuzzy about this is crazy ngl, this guy is bad af at sot. Dont compare pros like mino or dbs opinions with fcking content creators, thats dissrespectful ngl
For the average player, Phuzzy's advice was the closest to being accurate. A lot of players don't play HG because their win rate in under 40%. Maybe they would play more if they knew there were optimal gains to be made while still losing frequently.
This is some really good information! Here's a comment for the algorithm, and a tab replaying the video at 0.25 speed for extra viewer retention points, also for the algorithm.
no better feeling than when a model starts fitting the data
I would like to add something that im not sure many people talk about. So I had just recently started doing hourglass (solo sloop) for the first time and went from level 0 servants up to 100 in about 3 weeks, was 168 wins total. I did 2 streaks and lowered all the way to about level 80 and was seriously just cruising most of the way. At 80 or so, I decided "well maybe I should just start going for higher streaks" as I was in a situation where I had won like 15 matches in a row but was lowering at 2 the whole time.
So I did just that and went for 4 streaks. First one, easy. Second one, immediate jump in enemy skill level. I dont mean like a little better, I mean gold curse ultra sweats that I had not been playing against at all. I thought, huh maybe a fluke. Next day I went again and got a 4 streak again, and then after that once again really REALLY good players.
Ultimately, I went BACK to 2 streaks the rest of the way to 100 and it wasnt bad at all, but there DID seem to be a permanent "change" to my MMR due to me hitting a higher streak. I could be wrong, couldve just been a coincidence, but this would also explain why my friend who has played a total of 10 hourglass matches just to get the 10 streak commendation, is unable to play against anyone that isnt a mega sweat now after just 10 matches, whereas I went over a hundred matches against below average/average players and that only changed the instant I went for higher streaks.
My main point here is it SEEMS to be the case that hitting those streaks in a lot of ways can lead to punishment for doing "good" and can thus alter your win/loss moving forward. Had I just stuck with 2 streaks and never went for 4, I probably couldve gotten to 100 FASTER cause I wouldnt have possibly ran into that stretch of clearly way better players around level 80 which definitely impacted my win loss. In the end however, I have a 60% winrate according to the sea of thieves website data so definitely a bit above average skill level. With that number, your chart does seem to indicate I should be going for 4 streaks going forward, but again I now am suspicious of even attempting such a thing due to it putting me into a higher skill bracket, when I can just win easier doing 2 streaks and with more certainty about the outcome being low risk.
That’s a fair point. There isn’t a lot known about how the matchmaker works in SoT since they said there is MMR but didn’t explain how it is calculated or how wide it can be. Also, eventually it just has to get you a game. Just watched four day one swabbies go against a full obsidian skelly curse crew in their very first match ever. So the MMR doesnt really work as intended. However, I think you are right that it ties to match you with people similar MMR or similar streaks, I just don’t have the data on it to really check anything
@KMK_SoT yeah I mean I do know based on whether or not you get the "searching for opponent" pop up when diving that allegedly implies you are gonna get someone outside of your mmr range according to a couple sources, cause it does just prefer to find a game for you, but when I had those super sweaty games after my larger streaks that wasn't coming up. Sure, I did definitely get better at pvp just from playing that much but I always felt like the opponents I was fighting were close to being around my skill level and the matches I was winning a bunch weren't like "free wins" or something. So I think it is pretty likely streaks are taken into account for your MMR cause it's really the only metric they have to base skill off of besides just your level.
Never won past 2, thanks for the heads up 👍🏽
my head hurts watching the numbers but a valuable information. keep up the good work
true XD
Absolutely phenomenal mathematics
Solid video. I appreciate the effort put into calculating this in a spreadsheet. I always had a rough estimate of the math around xp efficiency. I would advise players based on their skill level when best they should lower, but never had hard facts to back it up or easily explain why. Now I can send players this video in the future.
Thanks, great work!
Excellent work my good sir. I cant not follow after this. Thank you for the serious insights
I appreciate you not only doing the math for us all, but sharing your math to allow for accountability/correction. However, I am not only already struggling following along with your numbers just in my head (if you had a whiteboard or something it would be easier for visual learners like me), but I am also getting distracted by your B-Roll/gameplay in the background. 😅
In other words, I will just take you for your word, but not treat it as gospel since I don’t have the mental capacity to confirm your numbers are correct. 😂😅
Either way, thank you for the video!
(I personally would love to see you do the math similarly to how “EngineeringExplained” does his math in his car videos! That would be amazing!)
Yeah I’m awful with editing/animation so didn’t really have a good way to show all of the steps lol with my stats videos on my main channel for Overwatch I just mainly show the data I’ve collected and then a graph of that data. This one was a bit different in trying to explain how to calculate something so it was tough. Ty for the feedback and I’ll try to make it more clear if I do something like this again!
insane video bro. The amount of information is crazy haha
Phenomenal video, well done!
Valuable insight from a valuable content creator
Great video! I had thought about this alot and hadn't considered the multiple coinflip scenario problem. Also worth mentioning, it would be good to factor in flag sales (bigger streaks will accumulate more flags). Lowering takes a significant time if we are talking metric/hour. Lastly (and I think this good be a really big factor), the closer you are to a 50% win rate, the longer on average your battles are, since mismatched fights will end much faster on average. Anyway, its a great project for a Masters project lol
I’m fairly certain (could be wrong) that flags will give the same servants xp no matter your streak. Emissary 5 might give more? Idk, but if I get at least a grade 5 I personally go sell it right away to bank the xp but keep my streak going. But yeah it might not be as efficient in xp/hr which is hard to calculate for reasons you mentioned
it would really help if you wrote the numbers you re talking about on screen because following it all just by listening to your voice is hard when we re not that good at math
You can make a copy of the spreadsheet I use and check out all of the formulas I used in there if you like 😁 but I’ll take that into account for next time
I really thought that having at least a 2 streak would give more xp for my winrate which if i tracked it correctly is 13 wins to 14 losses, but apparently it may not be. Well anyways i still need to work for pl and hunters before hg makes the main game too boring again.
Two streaks might be more xp/hr since you don’t have to keep going to an outpost, but that’s harder to track than xp/game
One thing you can’t easily calculate is time. Time spent sailing to an outpost, just usually rarely feels worthwhile.
I average a 90% wr solo, for this reason I will lower between 8 and 10 streaks, but I’m definitely not selling every chance I am near an outpost or it will just slow me down and kill my xp momentum for no reason.
Agree 100% for players with higher win rates. You don’t have to lower every time you’re near an outpost, but say it’s “best” for you to lower every 8 but you spawn north of Smuggle’s Bay might as well just dive again for number 9 and hope you get a closer spawn this time because it won’t have a huge impact on your xp/game
Bro how are you winning? Highest solo streak is 2 highest Duo is 5
I just posted a VOD review looking at a friend’s gameplay. If you want me to check yours out and get specific tips there is a discord link in the description of that video where you can post your fight!
The win rate calculation is inaccurate. Ever since Rare allowed us to match against the same faction, the win milestone has been incorrect. When you match against the same faction, it WILL count as a battle, but it WON"T count the win. This means it technically counts as a loss.
I literally can't hit a 10 streak without getting at least 1 cheater. 😂
In my opinion it really depends on the time of the day. Sometimes there are only golden skellies and tryhards everywhere, sometimes you run into duke shipsets a few times...
Yeah I seem to run into less sweats late at night (like 1-4 AM) since there are less players in queue they probably widen the mmr to let people get games easier
@@KMK_SoT for me it's quite the oppsite, during noon time I have the easiest games and during night 💀💀💀
Isn't faction stash level also a factor for xp gain? If so, wouldn't this scew the graph towards larger streaks for xp?
(Btw, really love this kind of data driven video, amazing job!)
I believe (correct me if I’m wrong) that the faction stash resets every time you dive so it is out of your control. Although imo faction stash 5 and getting invaded is an underrated way to play. Getting that 2.5x multiplier on xp isn’t too bad, so you can level up while playing adventure
So with my winrate of 10%... well...
Just lower every win 🙂
Bro same. XD highest solo streak is 2
Lah dee dah! Look at Mr. "I've won an HG fight" over here! Some of us are out here with an 0-12 streak.
great video!
never lower, got it
Hey I know that guy
i once lowered a 17 winstreak on comunity day grade 3, a milion gold 2,5 guild levels and 6 HG levels, and now i just find out that it wasnt efficient
I mean, if you’re good enough for a 17 streak it’s probably fine. When you have a 90%+ win rate you can basically just lower whenever it’s convenient and it won’t make a huge difference
Comment for algorithm
why not post on your main channel?
SoT videos haven’t been doing as well since I started posting Overwatch content there. If most of my subs are there for OW and they see a SoT video they won’t click which is bad for the algo, especially for a small channel
It is too early for this
I definitely don’t know how to calculate that.. But I am pretty damn good at getting streaks!
Did you factor in the 1/10 cheater chance per match made.
Should be included in your overall win rate
@@KMK_SoT ok solid
Nice. I've been lowering after 2 regardless cause I mainly pvp for quicker emissary rewards
Puff!
how did bro make this video 16 minutes long
I wanted to go over the math and the thought process behind how I calculated everything so it wasn't just "trust me bro I did the math"
"Mixed results when you ask streamers" Results? Theyre people with their own personal opinions, not a search engine lol
Except what we are trying to solve isn’t an opinion. There is a statistical best time to lower your hourglass based on your win rate which I showed in the video.
“I asked 100 people what 2+2 is but got mixed results, guess I’ve gotta do the math to figure it out myself.” Same thing
❤️🗿👌🏼
4
This is to much guess ill never know
Just use the spreadsheet linked in the description if you want to skip all of the math 🙂
Nice kancer video!
are you the loveable dogman cheater
@@BananaaLord i hate sot
@@spear1534 ha I knew it I just watched dog man’s video about u before this one 😂
Just watched it. Cringe cheater smh. Idk what about this vid is cancer but he can go off ig.
Dude thinks im getting more than 2 wins in a row
No, it’s for every win rate, so if you’re below 50% you should probably lower every win for max xp and gold
asking phuzzy about this is crazy ngl, this guy is bad af at sot. Dont compare pros like mino or dbs opinions with fcking content creators, thats dissrespectful ngl
I was showing that if the average viewer asked their favorite streamer for advice it would be wildly different. Never said they were on the same level
For the average player, Phuzzy's advice was the closest to being accurate. A lot of players don't play HG because their win rate in under 40%. Maybe they would play more if they knew there were optimal gains to be made while still losing frequently.
Bro called a content creator with thousands of hours bad at a game with a gameplay cycle of sailing a ship and killing skeletons