Forecast Discussion - January 10, 2024 - Another Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak Expected
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- Опубліковано 30 вер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
January 10, 2024: Another severe weather outbreak is expected to impact areas from east Texas through the Southeast Thursday evening through Friday. The SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi River Valley for Thursday evening into Friday morning and an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from Alabama into the Carolinas for Friday. Another potent trough will eject into the southern US Thursday, initiating intense low-level cyclone development. This will foster the development of severe storms beginning Thursday evening through Friday. All hazards are possible, including significant tornadoes given a bit more favorable wind profiles for discrete supercells with this setup versus the last one.
Day three sig risk that is absolutely massive. Confidence is seems a lot higher than usual.
Yea, but if it’s a bust, it wouldn’t be the first time…that being said it looks potent af!
Ya but it could change
Yeah I'm thinking they'll probably at least stay at enhanced given how big it is but could be wrong
The NAMM & the Euro are showing different ideas about the instability axis though@peachxtaehyung
So what does that mean
Excellent analysis again, Trey. I feel the April 14-16, 2011 outbreak setup is a little bit better of a comparison to this setup. But regardless of how it's laid out. Very impressive setup for January
Thank you! I did look at the April 14-16, 2011 setup; the trough progression was a little bit different but it’s a solid analog. Probably won’t see anything remotely close to those setups, but this one still could be potent.
If this is a sign of things to come, then expect a really active late winter and early spring just like last year.
Interesting, and I know there's a 3rd system to come too, this makes me wonder how the primary tornado season is going to pan out if January is being this active.
Note to self: Verify that playback speed is set to normal before playing the video. The opening “Hey, everybody, Trey here” at 3/4 speed is 😬😂
Safe travels!
Hahahaha thank you!
@@benwalter4842 Oh, my! 😂
Dang, kinda scary that all this is happening in january. Kinda nervous this has pitential to be historic i think
Definitely wouldn’t go that far at this point, still plenty of failure modes, but it could be potent
Is it me or does it seem like when severe weather hits the same place in a short amount of time with a 2nd system is more significant?
Often that does happen
Kinkyness in the warm sector
I hope that I'm wrong. But I got a real bad feeling that what we've seen with the last storm, and the possibility of this next one being one that bombs out (over a 20mb drop in 24 hours) When spring starts to set in, and we still have an active jet, and the possibility of going neutral or in La Nina. This could be a record breaking spring as far as severe weather is concerned. The negative tilt on this next storm, if this was March/April/May, it would be a massive problem. I may be wrong, but from what I've learned over the past year from awesome content creators such as you Trey. Has helped me to understand how the atmospheric conditions of our amazing planet, can produce some of the energy filled weather we deal with. Hope you have a great one!
Thank you! I’m interested to see what things look like in February as far as signals for this upcoming spring season. These “transition” seasons between ENSO phases do tend to be pretty interesting.
Bruh imagine if it was May
That last event 2 days ago had so much sauce…to much sauce per se lol Watching those heckin’ chonker cells over the ocean coming on shore and just getting shredded was amazing.
Where will you mark your best chance for serve weather on friday ? like through Columbus, Georgia, south carliona?
Anywhere from southern Alabama through the Carolinas is where the highest threat looks to be right now
So The best overlapping is the southern part of the states?
Yes, Southern Alabama/Georgia into the Carolinas
It's wild how active this pattern has been currently. I mean that Friday set up in the Southeast is soooooo primed for a lot of tornadoes once again only this time, this actually looks to be even more potent and this is more in the classic heart of Dixie alley.
Kind of insane how in a sense we are seeing 2 spring-level events and tornado outbreaks in one week. Like this is wild and if this is any indication for how this Spring will be then we are looking at a torrid tornado and severe weather pace which will rival the start of the 2023 year at least through April.
Looking like a back-to-back severe setup. This one might have a more favorable storm mode, but maybe a bit less low-level instability and shear that is simply "really high" instead of extreme off-the-charts. As you showcased, this one really comes down to how big or small the warm sector ends up being. With this event happening so close to a massive cold front sweeping the 60+ dew points down and out all the way past the Yucatan, even the strongest of surface lows can't pull them all the way back up for a massive warm sector in time. But those shear vectors combined with the main forcing mechanism being a dry line instead of a cold front leaves way more room for a broken line with embedded supercells and some prefrontal supercells possibly racing in off the gulf.
Yesterdays event was already fairly bad, I think technically in outbreak status with 15 confirmed tornado reports, but it could've been so much worse. I was watching the supercells just off the coast of the Carolinas and it was nonstop potent waterspout city. I think Reed Timmer even joked on social media about wanting to get a boat out there so he can snap some video of these monsters. Some of the TVS's were just downright gnarly, but thank goodness none of them ended up making landfall. I'm sure we'll see some of that data when you do your breakdown video of these two events, can't wait for that!
Also the massive cold blast coming in behind this is going to be extremely potent. Not necessarily related to severe weather but I know my folks up in Dallas are looking at maybe seeing near zero or even below zero temperatures Monday night. It's been a weird start to 2024 weather-wise for sure!
Really it will be less shear? Because it looked like the jet streaks are stronger
@@peachxtaehyung From what I'm seeing, the LLJ is going to be kinda similar in intensity, but the surface level winds are not going to be as strong or quite as veered. From a raw SRH comparison, we were seeing models prog 700-800+ for this prior event, whereas the soundings he showed here were more in the 350-500 range. Heck we had a couple VWPs yesterday in the Carolinas showing 800-1000 0-3km SRH. The upcoming event still has models showing large hodographs, but a bit more in normal Southeast crazy range as opposed to completely bonkers runs-off-the-top-of-the-plot hodographs like this past event was.
@runt9 I'm just a weather aficionado trying to understand how shear affects this type of setup.
1. If I'm understanding correctly, bonkers low level shear is great for transporting high dew points from warm sectors.
2. Does strong lower level shear destroy supercells quickly, or does it only destroy supercells when the Cape is low?
Any help with this matter will be greatly appreciated!!
@@barbaroacosta5335 Caveat: I am not a meteorologist, nor am I trained in this subject at all. I'm simply curious about weather, so the below statements should not be taken as fact, rather should be interpreted as my best understanding of these concepts.
1. Shear itself is the changing in wind speed and direction as you get higher up in the atmosphere. Large amounts of shear itself does not contribute to the advection of warm, moist air. Rather, large amounts of shear tend to end up present in situations where warm, moist advection is happening due to that being a factor of strong low-level wind speeds. Specifically in the US, our moisture source is the Gulf of Mexico and so strong surface and low-level atmospheric winds out of the South or Southeast (backed winds) tend to help bring the moisture from the gulf onto land in the low levels and give thunderstorms the fuel they need to feed off of. What creates shear is when on top of those backed winds at the surface and low levels, you have upper-level winds that are more zonal/veered (from West to East), which tends to happen at the base of troughs like this one. Large amounts of shear created by having more powerful, veered winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere while having strong but weaker winds that are backed near the surface creates spin in the atmosphere, and spin is obviously one of the primary ingredients for tornadoes.
2. Shear having the strength to destroy supercells does tend to be tied to how much instability is in the air, but it's a bit more nuanced than that, too. Low-level shear generally will have a tough time ripping apart a storm at the surface, it's generally when you have too strong deep-layer shear combined with instability focused more down at the surface that will break apart the tops of storms and not allow them to become truly large and robust. You'll see this happen when you look at reflectivity and see a small thunderstorm with parts of its rainy reflectivity extend off for many many miles away from the storm. That's a good indication that the deep-layer shear is tearing the tops off the clouds and sending them flying. In the mid-levels, the big thing that can contribute to thunderstorms getting blown apart is when they get choked off by dry air. Trey has gone into it a few times on some failure cases in the past, but basically the thunderstorm gets pinched off in the mid levels by too much dry air intrusion, and without robust enough instability to punch through that and explode upwards despite the pinching, thunderstorms will tend to be easier to break apart and fracture by powerful mid-level winds. I don't know how common it is for strong low-level winds to break apart thunderstorms, it's not something I've really heard too much about and would need to learn more about.
Again all of this is purely my understanding, I'd trust someone like Trey to explain this way better than me, but hopefully this helps! In general, strong low-level shear is associated with vorticity (spin) which when combined with ample instability to support robust updrafts, can cause those updrafts to rotate and in some cases turn that rotation into tornadoes!
@@peachxtaehyung Very strong shear isn't required just enough shear, shear vectors are also important and the previous event had an unfavorable shear vector for tornados.
Thanks for the update and discussion Trey!
Thank you for this! Yesterday we had same risk and quite a few significant tornadoes in my area. Hope you have a great day
Yes, could definitely be a repeat, perhaps even more intense. Have a great day, as well!
@@ConvectiveChronicles oh my. Hoping it won’t be worse as it hit my friend and it will take time to recover
Dang, sorry to hear that
@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah. First time in a long time my area has been affected by tornadoes and personally as I know some people that got hit. We still shall see what it brings
Thank you for waking up early for us!
If that squall line forms again after the discrete development, with the kinematics, can this turn into a derecho kind of thing too?
I’m not sure the length of the line would meet derecho criteria
Im concerned about this system for sure. Im also really nervous about the winter storm and extreme cold here in dfw. We will be almost as cold as feb 2021 and icy . I REALLY dont want to relive the 2021 event so i hope the power grids stay strong through at least the worst of it
Yeah, it’s definitely going to get cold. Hopefully folks are more prepared for this one (including the power companies)!
Fortunately here in DFW, the cold below freezing Temps will only last about 3 days
damn i kept asking for your opinion on tuesday for savannah looks like friday will possibly be much worse
Yeah, this system could be more intense than Tuesday’s event
wouldnt be shocked seeing a moderate risk eventually
Definitely possible
Did you mean to choose the 28th when comparing it to the April 27th event?
Yes, on the SPC mesoanalysis archive, you have to input the ending time first, so I selected April 28 at 00z (7pm CDT April 27),
Ok, Thank you!@@ConvectiveChronicles
this has a more and likely a higher chance of moderate to maybe high risk
We’ll just have to wait and see
Is it just me or are a lot of the models underperforming this on Friday?
I haven’t been able to check today’s models, but it’s a good thing if most models are showing more of a lackluster event.
Excellent content as always!
Thanks for sharing.
Thank you!
Ah shi here we go again 😩😫
Yep, another potent setup on its way
@@ConvectiveChroniclesCould the Polar Vortex stop this system I don't know how that works ?
@@DJ-iu5bb no timing of the vortex would be days after this.
Aww crap here we go again!
Thank you for the updates Trey!
My pleasure; thank you for watching!
I’m thing about changing in the Carolina’s. Do you think a 3 hour drive is worth this. Or staying around Rocky Mount/ Wilson area will be as good. Sorry for all the questions, still trying to learn stuff
I’ll be honest, haven’t been able to check the latest models, been on the road all day
@@ConvectiveChronicles ok. That’s fine
That was awesome that you pulled up the 500 map for April 2011! I was thinking about comparing it to that right before you did it.
Thank you.
Thank you !
Temps only up to 20 degrees celcius, maybe the CAPE wont be that strong to support big supercells
I think we’ll see robust enough moisture return to support adequate destabilization in the warm sector.
Why do you think Monday’s tornado set up didn’t really take shape until Tuesday morning?
I think there was some lingering low level inhibition and unfavorable shear vector orientation with respect to the line. Will have more on this later.
Thanks Convective! Your reports are always the best! Äm in extreme NW ARKANSAS; so, safe travels to OK. Thanks for your work ☮️
Thank you so much!
So why is the blue isotherm at 45F? Wouldn't 55 be a more appropriate base level severe weather dewpoint?
The isotherms on the surface pressure map are showing surface temperature, not dew point. On the dew point map, the blue starts at 60F.
Honestly this looks like an Ohio valley setup misplaced in Dixie, small nose of moisture quickly veering with westward extent, generally very speed shear heavy profiles with the risk mainly being at the backside of the LLJ with the WF being the only area where curvature is maximized (also as always amazing analysis Trey)
Thank you! Yeah, it definitely has some of those Ohio Valley characteristics.
Seems pretty concerning that day 3 outlook is already 3/5 threat lvl, I feel don’t you never see that. Maybe like day 2 on outlook but not on day 3 to have that high threat lvl already.
Its not super uncommon but it does often signal a very potent event on tap
In Raleigh, NC.
We're in for it.
an update with tomorrow's cams would be sweet if you can
Not sure if I’ll be able to but we’ll see. I tend to not put much stock into the CAMs anyway, the meteorology is far more useful
An excellent explanation of what could happen! Great job!
Thank you!
there was another tornado outbreak on January 12th of last year.
Yes, featuring the Selma tornado
You’re the man, Trey!
Wouldn't there be a chance of risk Upgrades into Mod by chance from this significant severe weather setup?
It is certainly possible
@@ConvectiveChronicles how big is the chance of that happening cuz im i live in the Savannah river valley
Hard to say at this point, but regardless of the risk, you should prepare for robust severe weather.
Do you think the NAM is being too conservative with the northward extent of instability on Friday afternoon into Ga? It would seem with such intense cyclogenesis (as per SPC notes), it would be able to effectively transport the moisture a little more northward than suggested initially. I'm not too familiar with the NAM biases though.😊
It’s certainly possible. I suspect the previous cold frontal intrusion from the last system plus the more northward track of the surface low might make it tough to get moisture noticeably farther north then what the models are showing, but we’ll see.
I appreciate the reply, I guess one of the reasons I assumed the NAM was being a little too conservative is because even it's most recent run (18z), it shows virtually no surface based cape throughout most of the area outlined by SPC as Enhanced as it stands.
Yeah, it looks like confidence may be decreasing a bit. Instability concerns certainly coming into play.
great video interesting as always
Thank you!
In East central Alabama right in the orange bullseye so my heart sank
As long as you’re prepared and have a plan, you’ll be ok.
The only bad part is I will be at the work lol because this seems to be a morning into afternoon event but pretty wild they must have extreme confidence to put something like this 3 days out
Yeah, confidence has been pretty high so far
Leaving Oklahoma😂
I’m going back actually
You don't think that Georgia would have a level 4
It’s not off the table
About if you had to guess what about a percentage?
What does surface based mean?
Surface based is when storms are ingesting air parcels rooted at the surface, rather than those that are elevated above the surface, which would negate the tornado risk.
@@ConvectiveChronicles is this due to dew points or multiple factors?
It often has to do with the low-level thermodynamics…if the surface temps are too cool, yielding a capping inversion, storms can be elevated above that capped layer.