The Best Offense in the NFL that Can't Score Points.
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- Опубліковано 10 лис 2023
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as a bills fan, i’m so appreciative that you took an in-depth look at the struggles this season. i know ur a texans guy, happy that y’all are having a great year and have found ur franchise guy.
As a NYC lifer, Im sad about the Bills struggles. Upstate deserves a consistent winner. Who knows, maybe they change the run game and this is the year. NOBODY in this town thought in Nov 2007 and Nov 2011 This was "OUR YEAR".
@@WalterWhiteFootballSharingthat’s true. those years the g men just got hot and took it all the way. the 2007 year was special
Is it just me or do the Texans have almost the same problem (or at least, coming soon)
@@nikilragavthe texans ran the ball very well against the bengals, so 🤔
@@sponbob5612 ya they did. I was very surprised
Average Ken Dorsey run offense
Gotta simplify the shii for Allen overrated ass...mf leads the league in turnovers by alot since being drafted...
kEn DoRsEy as if Allen doesnt have a turnover or 2 every game, often in 1 score losses. He has N E V E R had consecutive games without throwing an INT and also has the most fumbles since he entered the league. He's legit an elite Daniel Jones lol. 2nd most fumbles lost since 2020. Most INTs since 2020, or 2021, or since 2022. Sensing a pattern here?
This year they are 2-4 in 1 score games.
Week 1: Lost by 6 points. Allen had 3 INTs AND 2 fumbles.
Week 5: Lost by 4, 2 TDs, 1 pick
Week 7, against the dreaded 1 win Patriots: Lost by 4, Allen turned the ball over by air and ground. He should play for FedEx Heir Arthur Smith with those air and ground numbers!
@@173jaSon371when they're entire offense is "Allen save us" and they have no run game & receivers that literally can't seperate, it's actually amazing that he doesn't have more to's.
@@173jaSon371 Yes Josh Allen has turnovers, but that has never really stopped the Bills. Outside of his first year they have made the playoffs every year and the last 3 have been close to the top of the AFC with the turnovers. They have also never been the reason we lost in the playoffs. When this offense is at its peak turnovers are the same as a bad punt, and sometimes even a good punt.
The Bills not being able to run the ball, and Ken Dorsey's inability to draw up decent routes for the receivers is what's hurting the Bills. Its the the Allen and Diggs show every week. If they can't do something special then there is no offense. If Allen had a little help from a run game, a decent o-line or a receiver outside of Diggs, I can assure you the turnovers would go down too.
exactly. he has no idea how to scheme guys open. the Bills move the ball well because they have a top 3 QB and top 3 WR, but the big plays are gone and Dorsey has no idea how to adjust.
I noticed the same thing when Zach Moss was there. I thought he would be great for their scheme but they just stopped using him all together. Now he's balling out with the Colts
1😊
James Cook is being wasted. You use a 2nd round pick on him and you barely use him
@@growingupbuffalo I feel like that was a nice way of saying it’s a Bills problem not a Moss problem
Brett, I think you’re getting very good at your unique style of mixing statistics, film study, and story telling. You’re consistently producing a professional-quality product, and your fans notice. Keep it up man.
I came to the comments to say something like this, but you already did, so I'll just add my comment here. The deep level analysis that Brett does is so informative and intellectually stimulating, to be honest.
meat riding is crazy dont forget to zip it up when ur done
@@KAYDENGEORGE-vw5nsreally bruh
dawg 😭😭
@@KAYDENGEORGE-vw5ns an astute observation
“Yolo their way down the field until the punt” is exactly how I would describe the Bills offense this year.
And it’s even more painful to watch than when we genuinely sucked. We have so much potential now, and it’s held back by (at best) questionable play calling
I know some Bills fan will want to bring up the unluckiness factor of certain turnovers. But some folks broke down the Bengals film (a good defense to test Allen and the Bills pass game) and there was so much weird shit with the route concepts that doesn't make sense. Especially when DC Lou Anarumo started going cover 1 post snap and Dorsey was still dialing up cover 2 beaters for pass concepts. So it makes sense Allen wasn't seeing enough guys open past his initial reads and he'd want to attack deep or Diggs. And he'll fall for the trap to force passes on bad coverages.
It’s terrible getting a taste of finally being an elite team and then going back to…sucking 😢
At least we fired dorsey
This is what happens when you have a prodigious QB and rely on them a little too much.
JA is the problem, Diggs was the one they rleied on to bail out JA. Diggs is not having the same sort of season he would except from his high standards over a number of years.
@@simonglancy7070naw he really isn’t everyone likes to push that narrative but it has no weight. You can point out Josh’s ints and I can tell you that some of the best qbs in the league rn have only one int less. It’s 100% a problem with the OC and our schematics, anyone in Buffalo who actually watches the games can tell you this. “JA” consistantly makes plays only he can to bail out the OC, and it makes our offense just look analytically good enough to where the OC won’t change the schematics but in reality we won’t do anything
@@simonglancy7070You obviously don’t watch the bills. Try again
@@simonglancy7070 stick to selling timeshares simon
@@simonglancy7070the NFL leader in EPA is the main problem ok buddy
Getting so close but coming up short is the epitome of Bills history..
Can’t spell Billlls without four Ls
May be a bit worse because the Bills have arguably a historic young QB in Allen. Bills never had this kind of talent under center that could rival Jim Kelly.
Well it taught me to accept neverending disappointment in everything I love.
one of the few NFL content creators i watch. keep up the unbelievable stuff
One of the few NFL content creators I edge too around 10pm
his early stuff is the best
I mean this has been an issue for the past several years. The Bills' offense before Diggs was basically Josh Allen doing everything and they made it to the playoffs.
Then they got Diggs. And the offense became the Allen and Diggs show and they have been relying on that. They haven't had a 1000 yard rusher during Allen's time and Diggs is the only consistent receiver. People keep bringing up Allen's turnovers but Allen frequently has to carry the team on his back to make big plays that he does force passes or he does scramble when he doesn't need to. Because who is there to help?
Buffalo needs to get Allen some legit help because what they are doing now isnt going to be successful, especially in the playoffs.
That's not true about the offense before Diggs
Shakir has had two good weeks for me of waiver wire maybe he keeps giving you more balance than Davis who is apart boom bust
It seems like a lot of teams are making the same mistake the Bills are, because league-wide it looks like running the ball is less successful.
I thought it was that DCs had compensated for zone run-blocking to the extent that it didn't work anymore, but if Brett is right, it's that teams are hamstringing themselves by misusing their zone concepts with the wrong formations.
I learn so much from this channel. Seriously, every video.
lions fan. We're running the ball the best we have since Barry was on the team. I do mean to brag. It's nice to have a team that isn't ass for once.
Bills are trying to copy what happened to the 2021 super team Rams that won a rigged SB
When you said that the Bills had 8 designed runs vs Cincy, i had to rewind it because (as a James Cook fantasy owner) i could have sworn it was 8 times all year
The Bills, especially lately, have been giving me major Romo-Cowboys vibes. All the fireworks, all the efficiency, and then all the mistakes when you can least afford it-all overseen by a mistake-prone head coach. I feel like the Bills are the Cowboys of the AFC except that I really hope the Bills can overcome their curse!
Bills are the legacy of failure. They are always fall short to the top.
I agree other than the fact that Allen is a much better QB. In some ways that's worse since he will keep them competitive no matter what happens. I really like Josh Allen so I hope he doesn't end up like Rodgers/Brees with mediocre supporting casts fo the next decade.
Nah, losing to Broncos.
Cowboys have five of them the bills have a goose egg so that's a terrible comparison.
And one of the worst offensive coordinators in modern times
Fantastic video Brett. Connecting the dots between why the analytics (specifically EPA) say the Bills should be way better than they actually are was very helpful. Pointing out the complete lack of creativity and misdirection is what I’ve been screaming at my TV for weeks. It’s not just the run game either, the pass game is so much easier to stop when they line Josh up in shotgun opposed to under center. Also the fact that someone up top is clearly telling Josh to stop scrambling unless 1000% necessary is obviously neutering his dual threat ability that keeps defenses on edge.
This is why I think the Bills were so good with Daboll as OC. He’s a master of play design and playcalling which the bills are desperately lacking
I feel like most offenses are struggling this year
I definitely would agree this year has been a defensive year. A lot of games have been low scoring games compared to last year
Not the ravens or dolphins. That RPO is going to be deadly for the next couple years before teams get sick of it.
@@anthonyhankes7599 Weird thing for me is it feels more like bad offense than better defense. Teams are definitely containing the big play threat more in the past handful of years don't get me wrong, but there are more important factors IMO.
1. Young and inexperienced people both at QB and HC. Way shorter leashes than decades past, now they want to see what they've got and strike lightning in a bottle on rookie deals.
2. Covid year impacting development, making OL even less polished entering the pros.
3. Tons of injuries. Record number of QB injuries last year and this year, a record number of rookie starters already by week 10, with 10 rookies starting at least once.
Defenses have definitely adapted but it feels more like it's just offenses taking a big step back on their own. Pass rushers are definitely more freaky athletes on average nowadays too though.
NFL Live had a great discussion about this actually that I hope is up on their youtube about how simulated pressures from defenses are basically screwing with everything offenses are trying to do which is leading to the lower scoring totals because now the defense has evolved to match the motion-heavy offenses that generates matchups
Not my Ravens
Dude put this out just in time for the Bills to fail the next night
This has nothing to do with football, but I just wanna thank Brett because when I was in middle school I sucked at reading scatter plots, and thanks to Brett I now realized that I didn't really suck at reading scattered plots it's just I didn't like math LOL . Whenever he pulls these scattered plots to show NFL data I can read these no problem. Also, I can definitely tell you I have not been looking at scatter plots and trying to get a better grasp on it since I left high school and middle school.
Math starts to make sense when it’s about something we like haha
Without a doubt, and that is one of the many many reasons why the school system is so broken. You can't put people into a one size fits all box when everybody learns differently and everybody has different interests as well.@@BrettKollmann
One thing that I want to point out about the Bills offense though in the run game is that they did get Leonard Fournette and I think they got him for the specific reason that you stated in this video.
@@jabarwright4333 I doubt it. Fournette can't turn while running.
“Yup.”
-All of us Bills fans
“Beane never replaced John Brown and Cole Beasley & Davis and Knox stink real bad” - Also all Bills fans
@@scattau41 I genuinely believe Shakir can be better than Bease, but you’re right about Smoke.
The Bills are one of those teams who refuse to run the ball. And even if they do, the only person who does it is Allen. Both the Bills and chargers share the same DNA of " 1st down: throw the ball, 2nd: Throw 3rd: throw"
Buffalo fans are painfully aware of everything said here. If anything, its nice to hear that our concerns are actually validated and we aren't just completely delusional. Every time I see Ken Dorsey call a shotgun run right up the center with no creative blocking, I die just a little bit inside. Even worse when its a short yardage play and they are lining up in gun. I just don't get how you can see all the other offenses in the league being successful and not try to mimic them even a little. Feels like it has to be some kind of ego problem where he just believes that he is better than the rest of the league and doesn't have to try to adapt.
Also: Love the Buffalo coverage on the channel. Love the little note at the end too. I don't live there anymore, but it definitely has a special place in my heart and always will.
I would say we are painfully aware of the 'whats', but I have not heard any Bills Mafia UA-cam channels breakdown the 'whys', which this video was instrumental in showing me.
I've always sided with the "don't bother running" crowd, because it almost always leads to punts when the Bills try to force the run. So I get it, we want to be two dimensional, but that means successfully running, not just calling run plays that get stuff for 2 or less yards consistently. I always thought Bills Mafia was too hard on Singletary and Moss, because both could always make the first tackler miss if they had the slightest hole, but they were both constantly asked to run through an unblocked wall.
The explanation of why their EPA is so high, while the O struggles, and the explanation of why their run game can't get going were very informative, and I could only hope that someone like Brett is in Dorsey's or McDermott's ear to show them why they are failing. Right now it seems they either have a lot of dolts and/or a lot of yes-men in the organization, and no one is able or willing to speak truth to the situation. Why they keep doing the same failing scheme is beyond me.
I would love to get a update on how the Bills run game has or hasn’t evolved this season. As a fan, it’s seemed to have improved but I’ve never really thought about why it’s better now.
New OC midway through the season
That Broncos game was the epitome of how the Bills offense operated. They either got those scores or punted. Meanwhile the Broncos offense plodded along with field goals to keep things close in the 4th to win out in the end.
spot on, Zach Moss is now showing why he was drafted and is flourishing. there are other issues Bills fans have with the offenses too, each player is eccentrically put in a box and that is their role and they don't play outside of that role. Kinkaid was slotted into that Cole Beasley role and hasn't ran many deep routs as an example, Harty has been boxed in as the gadget guy when he's being paid to do so much more than to be an Isaiah Mckenzie, but doing anything more than that is giving him more than that role he's been given to fill. it makes our passing offenses predictable too, and places limitations on our team and the players.
This isn't right lol. Harty has ran a decent amount of deep routes and so has Kincaid
@@dominiquerosemond5682 sure there are a few outliers, but that's not what's predominantly happening. And Kincaid you could count on one hand how many deep routes he's ran, don't kid yourself. Harty was barely used until the Knox injury so it's only been recent that he's been using more of the route tree.
@trazz407 no not at all lol. Harty has run deep routes even before Knox got hurt. And Kincaid has run plenty of intermediate and deep routes
@@dominiquerosemond5682 you seem to be implying that he's had some bigger role when he hasn't seen 20% of the snaps and I don't think you've been paying attention to Kincaid. The majority of his yards have been rac, that doesn't mean he's running deep routes. Pay attention to his depth of routes, especially against zone. That's also usually when he gets targeted
@trazz407 that doesn't mean he hasn't run deep routes
Ken Dorsey drives me nuts. First, he drove me nuts as the QB of the Miami Hurricanes back in the day. That team was legit the best I've ever seen in spite of having Ken Dorsey as the starting QB. He was the biggest weakness on that team... Looks like things haven't changed much since.
Incredibly disrespectful to how good he was in college.
@@eunit8899 was he? Or was he just there at a time where literally every other position was absolutely LOADED with NFL talent? He had pro bowlers all up and down the OL, at WR, the RB's and last but certainly not least, the Ed Reed-led defense. Come on man, really?? He was lucky to even be on that team with the amount of talent they had.
Clearly not a 'Canes fan, and that's fine. I'll keep my own opinion of him having watched all his U.M games over yours though.
@@AlexM-uo9gk that's where you're wrong... I'm a lifelong Hurricanes fan, I just don't say what everyone else does because I watched those games too, he was a great leader, but in terms of playing he definitely was that team's biggest weakness, which says something about those teams because they were loaded and he put up really good stats. I remember him getting drafted by San Francisco and moving around a few places but it never worked out for him.
Bro this is amazing. I've never seen someone so justified in their sports rage with 1 person.
Thank you for this video! I'm a lifelong Bills fan, but this year has been driving me crazy, and the media doesn't seem to be able (or willing) to discuss the real issues.
Instead, we just hear the same general QB getting all the credit & all the blame talk, but there's so much more to it. If you were just going off statistics, Allen's numbers are as good, if not better, than most QBs in the league.
He's even more accurate, #1 in completion %, leads the league in total TDs, was #1 in QBR, #3 in pass yards, etc. etc. but also the 9 INTs (tied with Mahomes, a 1 more than Hurts btw). But it's more than just Allen's turnovers, it's the stalling out midfield or in opponents territory that keeps killing us.
I used to also call the Bills "the safest team to commit turnovers against," as they rarely punish teams for turning the ball over! That used to matter before all their best defensive players got injured, but now they rarely get turnovers anyway. But when they did, the Bills would get an INT or recover a fumble, it'd almost always result in a 3 & out or a FG.
This aged extremely well
If you’re gonna try to “Mahomes” your offense because of the tools your qb has, you gotta do some freaky pre-snap stuff to help your non-elite backs for balance’s sake. If you qb is good (like Allen has shown before) he’ll be the hero more times than not like you want him to be. When you force it, you get these kind of results. At the biggest stage you get Russell Wilson throwing that pick on their last play in the SB. You get dumb OC’s trying to outduel Aaron Rodgers with Big Ben.
That’s why I think it’s crucial that backs get paid so the guys coming up will see it as still worth to play. If not, those talents will go elsewhere and teams will have to pick up from a talent-barren pool of backs, and then we really won’t run it anymore.
Plays that require lots of presnap motion or "eye candy" have to be practiced alot, and even teams that run it alot like Miami and the Rams still have a bunch of presnap penalties. If the timing is off or the players aren't all in the right spot, it's not gonna work. Very hard to incorporate that mid season, but they can start by doing a few plays here and there
That Aged so well 💀
Narrator voice: The Bills did *not* get out of their own way.
Brilliant work. Brett’s def among the best minds in the football world. Outsmarting the analytics is rly hard, but he’s done it.
I don’t think he’s necessarily outsmarting analytics, but he’s doing a killer job of explaining why there’s a massive disconnect between the Bills’ analytical numbers and their actual output and win-loss record.
He’s literally using analytics to explain what’s happening.
Analytics aren’t getting outsmarted. They’re doing exactly what they’re intended to do. Interpretation of the analytics is always the issue, not the analytics themselves.
Something you could find out simply by watching.
You can't fool me Brett, I've watched hundreds of hours of your content and I know exactly what a reverse Kollmann curse attempt looks like, who do you have on your fantasy team??
Happened again today against Broncos 😂
We went on a run after that, then died to the chiefs because everyone was fucking injured😭
This is the problem with NFL statistics, the sample size and the time played.
Thanks for the content.
Not a bills fan just nice to see new content.
Was really excited for this video when you mentioned you’d be doing it on Bootleg. Of course, you didn’t disappoint- great video!
I never seen a team beat themselves more then any team in sports history
This video is very reminiscent of Foolish Baseball’s video on the 2020 Mets. You have to know the math behind an equation, what it tells you, and what it doesn’t tell you. EPA, like all statistical measures, has strengths and weaknesses, thank you for explaining them very well to a newcomer in football analysis
Great video!!! Very informative and easy to understand!! Thanks for the great work.
One of the best NFL content creators been watching you for a while now. Thanks for the depth it helps me understand alot!
It almost like they lose one of their big advantages when they don't have 50 yards of field in from of them, because Josh can hit every inch of that grass throwing on the run if necessary. But when they are in a spot where almost any NFL QB make all the throws, defending them becomes a lot less difficult.
Excellent analysis. Thanks man. Subscribed.
Bills Fans from Mid 90s to 2015 - "THROW THE DAMN BALL"
Bills Fans since 2015 - "RUN THE DAMN BALL"
Damn Brett. As a proud fifth generation Buffalonian who now lives out west you just got me all nostalgic and homesick with that outro. If you love food and football, Buffalo is worth a visit in the fall.
October in Buffalo is absolute perfection
As a mid thirties lifelong/current Buffalonian, it feels good to have relevant sports teams again.
Great video! Wish I could use Seat Geek to buy a ticket and go to the game on Monday. I’ve heard a few Bills fans say JA is uncomfortable under center. But he also seems like a guy who wants to win, so I hope he can change things up to benefit the team. I expect this Bills team to go 9-8 or something like that (maybe worse!). They’ll fire Dorsey and hopefully bring in an experienced play caller and get a good WR in the draft and load up for next year with a healthy defense. That’s my best case scenario anyway. Go Bills!
Can you do a video on the chiefs offense next? Is it the play calling? Poor WRs, or is Mahomes missing the mark?
They had a bad game right?
@@dogdude7485the chiefs offense been mid all season. The only game they really looked great in was against the bears. Mahomes don’t trust any receivers they have besides Kelce and Reid/Nagy be making some of the stupids play calls in the red zone and on 3rd and short situations.
Also chiefs o line is struggling and can’t run block at all like last year
@@mattgehrke3115 Their 3 interior OL are all ranked 1st, 2nd, and 12th in pass blocking though so it's pretty hard to complain about that. They're 20th in run blocking though, so I get your point
Combination of factors:
The WRs have a bad case of the dropsies and Kelce is the only receiving threat besides Rice who’s a rookie and for some reason they wont play him very much.
Bienemys influence on the run game is also sorely missed. The OCs call plays most of the time, but Reid has the final say on em. All the cutesy screens and short concepts don’t work that well when we don’t have a deep threat to even bluff that we’re going down field.
I'm a Seahawk fan, so I'm quite familiar with anemic offenses that on paper should be racking up the points. If it was up to me I'd put a lot more faith in our running game and working short passes with a guy like Smith-Njigba. We should be able to deliver an all out air assault, but so far this season that has failed to materialize. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. If it's broke, fix it FFS.
The ineptitude is because of Ken Dorsey.
Any success they've had is due to Josh Allen covering up woeful shortcomings for the fifth year in a row.
They couldn’t run the ball under Daboll either tho. This has been a problem for them for at least 4 years now
It’s the HC. He should probably be fired and replaced with someone who is offensively minded and not afraid to try something new.
Josh Allen is part of the problem. Those interceptions matter at some point.
@@geordiejones5618those interceptions happen because Dorsey's playbook is woefully thin and he relies on Allen to play hero ball in the red zone. E.g. if they ran the ball more in the RZ, there'd be fewer interceptions.
@@geordiejones5618 of course he has a lot of int's, the entire offensive game plan for his entire career has been "help, Josh, save us."
This was awesome! Thanks for doing this.
Much love Brett. Appreciate you
Appreciate the Buffalove man! My mission is trying to get Dorsey to watch this video before the season ends 😂
Great content as always. Also super happy that you've found you QB1 for the future.
Hey Brett, love you work. I’ve been watching you since before i can remember and really before i could legally drink lol. I absolutely love Bootleg football clearly, and ultimately your tag team is what has peaked my interest in taking a more abstract approach to football really. I mean more in my perspective as IM no insider, but youve brought that coverage to podcast, etc etc. so THANKYOU and EJ too. I don’t know why I am no contributing on Patron anymore either, gotta do that ASAP because I think a perk is to be able to get one of em sick ass four verts hoodies. Keep reporting because I love it🤟🏼
What shall I pin? Lol
Awesome video. This show me a few things. That EPA rating makes no sense to actual gameplay, using too much Shotgun in run concepts are bad, more disguise within the running game is needed. Thanks Brett. Also, better players within the O-line are needed from 1st to 3rd string.
We are SO sick of analytics when our team just plain STINKS. I've been screaming about the "eye test" since last season (I'm not the only one, but, there were VERY few of us because we still managed to win 13 games) but people kept telling me I'm nuts.
McDermott decides & coaches by analytics rather than using them as tools to inform his decisions. No accountability, otherwise Farwell & Frazier would have been fired immediately after 13 Seconds. When they weren't, McDermott should have been fired. Dorsey should have been fired last season and wasn't; from the Jets game Week 1, it was obvious this offense was the same as last season, and last season's results were finishing ABOVE the curve, ergo, a regression (to what we see now) was inevitable
McDermott says "trust the process"; well, his process lacks accountability for failures, it zeroes everybody's floors and ceilings (as if a drug addict could fly an airplane with no training - extreme example, but, it illustrates my point). His process therefore lacks self-correction or even an ability to identify weak parts, instead believing even HARDER that they can and will find a way to put their heads through a 48" thick brick wall.
Beane is the only one who gets a pass cuz the talent is undeniable. Fits & spurts of success show it's mostly the scheme that's failing (although of course the players aren't perfect either but it still comes down to coaching, especially if we're not blaming anybody and only looking at what CAN be changed to get a different result)
This team gets better when either A) McDermott FINALLY has an epiphany that his coaching style is garbage and he's reinforcing poor practice & bad habits by failing to have a mechanism to identify and remove failures, or B) McDermott is fired for his own failures to adapt and overcome (which is NOT as simple as putting your head down and butting the wall harder, Sean!!! You MUST think your way out of this!!!!)
I mean analytics aren't bad, especially if it supports/counters what the film is showing. I am also convinced that Beane the GM has not been as aggressive making a competitive enough team around Allen in comparison to guys like Howie Roseman. Or even Lynch with the CMC trade that changed a dimension of Kyle's offense that he's been calling in recent years. That may get worse especially when the team needs to reload possibly beyond Stefon Diggs and they gotta show more teeth in building a team than just Von Miller having to be an integral part of the D-line talent and lackluster depth in the secondary. Can't cry about White, Milano or safeties going down like they do every year.
Great analysis
I think it would be important to consider the number/percentage of points scored by the defense from picks or fumble into your data set
As a life long Bills fan who grew up not too far from Buffalo, this season has been so hard to watch. I really thought your video about this was very well done! It was also a very fair look at the team which is something I feel they almost never get. For the first time in a very very long time, we finally have a team that's capable of going to a super bowl. I just hope the coaching staff won't squander this, but I have my doubts. I really don't want to have to wait 20 more years to see them get another shot. All I want is to see this team get the recognition it deserves but so seldom receives.
Great video but you didn’t touch on one pretty significant aspect which is the Dawson Knox injury. Not that Knox is a particularly amazing player, but his absence/playing a couple weeks with an injured wrist is what forced the Bills hand in resorting back to their 11p spread & shred shotgun passing offense. The Bills spent all summer focusing on become a physical dual threat offense that played in 12 personnel at the highest rate in the league. They traded up to draft a TE in the 1st round, drafted a road grating behemoth RG in the 2nd round, signed Connor McGovern (and David Edwards) in FA to solidify their IOL, and then signed two veteran downhill power RBs in Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. They were clearly focused on adding an entirely new aspect to their identity, but it’s hard to shift your identity when you’re already so effective at your bread and butter from the past few seasons. There were mixed results from the two TE offense, it was very efficient but it was also slow and lacked explosive plays - scoring drives would chew up 8-10 mins which decreases the number of offensive possessions and increases the variance in outcomes.
It’s also much easier to exploit mismatches in the passing game with Dalton Kincaid when he’s lined up as an in-line TE than when he’s lined up as a slot WR. So after Knox left the lineup the passing game starting taking off again, but McDermott’s desires to shift the offense to a physical run game offense is still lingering, so now it’s as if the Bills are sacrificing possessions attempting to be something they’re bad at just to try to appease McDermott. Would be much better off just leaning into what they do best and keep on airing it out. More RPOs and more passes to James Cook and Kincaid and use those short quick passes as your pseudo run game to keep the offense on schedule. Latavius Murray getting a 45% snap share is just unacceptable when he’s not scaring anyone as a run threat and is just in for pass protection - just keep Cook in the game and throw him the ball! So that’s the problem IMO, it’s not the lack of the run game as much as it’s the lack of the quick passing game to James Cook.
Love the stat crunch videos.
The Bills just give me "Trying too hard" vibes. The offense has no off switch or small plays in mind. Every play has to be huge, every pass has to be some 30+ yarder or a touchdown. No in between
Simple things like running on first down or a checkdown when it's not there. Basic plays to establish rhythm and flow
Its funny because last season it looked like the Bills passing game figured out something for the short/intermediate game for like a 9-10 game stretch before Allen's elbow injury came up. It looks like nothing was built on that and the offense overall by design is essentially home runs or strike outs. I get it if the coaching staff doesn't believe they can run the ball as efficiently. But that mentality will always be a limiting factor to the offense and over exposing Allen's deficiencies.
YESS NEW VIDEO FROM BRETT LFG
Thanks. Great insights on why they are stuck!
This hurts to see, but great video as always Brett! Hopefully a reverse Kollmann curse can fix the Bills :)
As a baseball nerd and child of SABR, I think this is a great case study on how advanced metrics are awesome and allow us to add another layer of understanding to the game we love, but it isn’t the end all, be all.
As a Bills fan, I've been waiting for this eventual conversation lol, thanks Brett. This team is so frustrating to watch
The goat. So glad I found your channel. Really tired of the 'retired NFL dads arguing with each other across a desk in a suit' tv networks
Brett talking about good NFL run games, and showing Colts made my day. Happy Colts fan noises 🎉
As a Bills fan and new sub, I like how un-biased you are about the teams you talk about. Great channel
Great video man. Gained a subscriber.
This is one of my favorite breakdowns you've done
Buffalo loves you back! As an East Side resident, I remember and appreciate your support after the mass shooting at Tops. You're a tremendous UA-camr and human being!
18:10. That whole train of thought is like you went into my skull and ripped it out. I have said this exact same thing for years. Someone needs to sit all of the bills offense, from players to coaches and anyone in-between, down and make them watch this on repeat until they get it.
I absolutely love this guy’s no nonsense explanation of the dumpster fire that is the Bills offense.
Looking forward to this video since you mentioned it on the bootleg podcast
Josh Allen to Atlanta with all the weapons they have, and adding a competent OC would be scary. Hey a guy can dream eh?
May be time to get rid of the play caller/HC Fed Ex Art first. What is good is Josh Allen when the play callers' instinct in a potential scoring situation is to get the ball to anyone but Kyle Pitts?
I like you mentioned teams that do run the ball do so in other formations like under center and pistol. The Seahawks I feel can get away doing shotgun runs that Pete likes because they also do runs well under pistol. In fact that would be a good place for the Bills run game to start doing more of while incorporating the pass game with that (or designed Allen runs if needed). Overall you did a good job bridging the concept of EPA as it is calculated in context to why the Bills lead in that metric is such an empty calorie. Especially when you bring up other stats like scoring drive % and the film from how they operate within 50~30 yards and why the offense ultimately stalls out. A few other YT content creators also concluded the play calling/design is at fault with why the offense stalls after those big shots. Some 'calibrations' can be made as you suggested to fix the offense up in those situations but at this point, this isn't an offense that is designed to dominate in January. Even with an outworldly QB like Josh AlIen.
Thank you so much for this breakdown
Between the clear gap between roster talent and performance and the players-only meeting indicating that the players *also* know something is wrong at an organizational level, I'll be very surprised if Ken Dorsey survives the off-season there.
I think this helps explain why the pats were able to beat them. The Pats defense is about bending, not breaking, and when a team can’t even get a field goal, it makes it very winnable for a defense like Boston’s.
Great video
Chiefs have had that same problem with being in shot gun and not running well since we've had mahomes. It's gotten a bit better with Pacheco, but still noticable. Fans have been wanting mahomes under center more often for the run game, play action, and to limit rpos because it's gotten predictable.
This is really unique stuff for a team to be this dominant on paper and yet the wins just aren't there. In fact, I don't think I've seen anything like it since the 2021 Bills!
Hey Brett! Awesome video as always! Fellow analytics enthusiast and also a Bills fan from Europe here! I have a question: where do you get your data from for your videos? Thx in advance
Ps. Buffalo is awesome, I have so many good memories from that city
Thanks for really explaining epa. I did not understand it before this video.
Another kollmann banger
This might be your best work Brett. Masterclass.
“YOLO their way down the field until they inevitably punt” is probably the best football analysis quote I’ve ever heard
Genius breakdown!
The Bills need to mix up their playcalling more. They need to mix in some run plays with the passes. Cook is a good running back. Just throwing all the time makes your offense one dementional and defenses will key in on that.
Brett, which rookies are better --or worse-- than you expected?
Oh no Kollman cursed the Broncos now the Bills are gonna run for 200 yards and score 10 touchdowns (70-20 part 2)
Sincerely,
A depressed Broncos fan
Its kinda funny how Brett tries to Kolman curse Bills offense to be good (is it reverse cursing a team?), but they still didn't manage to win against Denver
The football gods can see through his childish ploys 😂
If in shotgun they should run Josh Allen more, I know runnin qb 10-15+ times a game not ideal/ scared of injury but QB run game evens numbers and opens up big play action opportunities and lanes for running backs on option type plays
Hell yeah love to see it, gonna be beautiful if Denver goes to Buffalo and comes out with a win, and maybe a pick 6 or two 😉
Amazing breakdown, as a Bills fan I try to watch and put a finger on what the problems are, but nothing is clear without the film study and a good guide! I grew up in Buffalo and appreciate the kind words about the city, people don't understand what kind of city it is, because the people make the city and you have to spend time with them to understand it.
Great analysis.
of all the film break down videos out their on UA-cam, you win and it’s not even close, the commentary, the actual breakdown, visual ques, I always feel like my football IQ goes up after watching your videos
Thank you! I’m happy to hear it!
Plus setting up under center sets up the RPO
I’m curious about the bills offensive numbers if you took out the 48 to 20 thrashing of Miami. I think that game alone changes the bills offensive numbers in a very drastic fashion. This version of the bills offense scores points in bunches against defensively weak teams and goes third droughts against teams with stout defenses.
Yeah. Miami at their house was their Superbowl.
@@Tubalcain422Miami is fraudulent they struggle against stout defenses
He just gave you the last five weeks at the beginning.
@@Tubalcain422 Definitely wasn’t their Super Bowl. Like it or not, the Bills still own Miami.
@@thefink6146 is that their only possession? Just asking because they seem like they suck with everybody else.
An argument on why they can't run in the shotgun....Both James Cook and Latavius Murray are tailbacks, and struggle to run from the shotgun. I fully expect Leonard Fournette to fix that issue 100%.
As an eagles fan, ik that Jalen nor BDNick won’t win any awards, but maybe you can explore how having 4 downs every drive impacts playcalling strategy? Your tush push video was so good, could be worth exploring in the off-season how playcalling strategy impacts schemes on both sides since BDNick is a lunatic who will go for it on his OWN 30 yard line against an elite DAL d-line.
I may be misremembering, but you shrewdly didn’t share your personal thoughts on tush push being banned. Would love to know what you think, stay well Brett.
NHL analytics show this stat plainly as Goal Above Expected. Instead of normalizing points down to per play they just count up. I'd love to see how many points below expected that the Bills have scored this season.