For me this solidifies why the Legion Of Boom defense in 2013 is one of the very best in NFL history. Being able to shut down teams during the midst of all the advantage shifting to the offense is a monumental feat.
Billie Stephens explained this really well. An extra box defender to stop the run, stock Cover 3, an elite free safety who can cover both sidelines at once (like Earl Thomas), and great defensive backs. Brandon Staley in 2020 designed a scheme using the Tite Front that does the same job.
The 49ers of those years had the inverse defense mindset , They were by far the best run defense in recent memory but in the end it didnt matter because The LOB had what mattered .
Something I'd like to note, Todd Bowles didn't wait until the Super Bowl to implement the strategy. Check the second half of that KC/Tampa game. The seeds were sown then.
If you’re patient enough seemingly everyone can move the ball in between the twenties. The Meta is have a QB that can improvise and create passing opportunities in the redzone when it gets tight and has to be accounted for in the run game, and have a creative offensive scheme that can incorporate RPO’s.. This vid captures that perfectly
Facts, there are probably more than 15 qbs in the league that I think with the right ppl around could compete for a ring. Also defense is wildly underrated in team success perceived by the media and fans
You need an insane o-line or a goated qb/skilled position players who make room when there is none for sure in the redzone. But it is kinda funny seeing the teams that cant even move the ball in the middle of the feild, like how bad is that offense with all that space
@@yoboychris4149 Meta stands for Most Effective Tactics Available, and while the gaming sphere uses that word the most, it has many applications outside it too.
this shows that the chiefs knew this when they traded hill and basicly their whole reciver group, they knew they needed a change after the changes in the NFL after they got beat in the AFC championchip by the bengals. In my opinion, the change in the big play frequency actully helps the enjoyment because their more valuable. Really enjoyd this, great video!
@@ParkerBG lol. Do you or the OP not know what wr they picked up in the draft this year? Hahahaha. Yep it was complete strategy by the coaches and front office to let go of tyreek hill. They did that because they were forecasting on how the NFL was shifting 😉🤣😂🤣 🙄 They won 2 Superbowls back to back because of their QB and their TE. Just stop man, you're making me laugh at you two.
@@ParkerBGYeah bc they saved money and spent it on defense. It’s not bc they knew that their big play potential was destroyed already. That’s why they just drafted the fastest receiver ever.
It's always been this way in the NFL. Defenses eventually catch up. It was because the KC O-Line was being dominated by the TB D-Line that they could play shell. KC's OTs were being dominated. TB didn't fear the run and Mahomes had no time to throw. They could mostly play off and come crashing, because they knew the ball was coming out quickly.
I really agree with Harry mills It's teams CANT throw deep because the pass rush talent is much superior to the offensive line talent currently Literally a top 3 offensive lineman last year was ALMOST 43 years old That speaks volumes This also explains the rash of qb n running back injuries
Teams also are simultaneously de-valuing the running game and running backs as well as run-blocking traits in o-linemen, so when the passing game struggles or isn't putting up big yards and big points, they no longer even have the tools available to switch up to a heavier run game.
Additional point: Defenses were so blitz and man heavy in the past (at the early part and prior to the 2010s) because the best QBs would dice them up if they played zone. Brady was the king of this. I think the NFL saw the Giants beat Brady twice by having a relentless pass rush and assumed “I must pressure the QB by any means necessary”. I wonder if DCs went that route because they assumed “we are gonna get scored on anyways” so they took an aggressive approach to try and get TOs. Also the blitz heavy, single-high, man-coverages are a lot less attractive if your offense also sucks and you are down by 14+ and aren’t forcing the other teams offense to pass. Meanwhile if you have an awesome offense and get UP by 14+ you can send the house and scar a QB for life 😅.
Also I feel like defensive line play has gotten much better over time. I feel like it is much easier to get home with 4 as D linemen have become quicker and more agile to work around the o line. These more maneuverable D linemen/edge rusher are likely a result of less run heavy offenses.
I noticed in the Super Bowl that Mahomes didn’t make those crazy creative plays anymore. Now he just makes the right read and walk the offense down field with high percentage passes. He’s still the best QB I’ve ever seen.
Ironically that just made it easier for the chiefs to win, because Patrick can adapt the best to the new defenses that were created to beat him, while others haven't managed to adapt as well. That's crazy.
And with the additions of Xavier Worthy & Hollywood Brown, the Chiefs are re-opening the possibility of going back to just beating defenses downfield. The Chiefs didn't find themselves in an easier situation, they just adapted.
This was a REALLY good video. Completely opened my eyes to a new dimension of the game and what's been happening with it. Extremely well researched and put together. Love this content and I can't wait to see more like it! Dr. Pigskin knows ball.
Mahomes and the Chiefs were so good that the entire NFL changed the way they played defense just to stop them and other high flying offenses. And they still won back to back Superbowls.
I think the Tampa Super Bowl also changed them forever. They learned that tyreek was expendable and invested heavily on defense in the draft. If you go and look at how well they’ve drafted since 2020 it’s absurd
i like a happy medium between defense and offense. I don't want every game to end in a 7-3 slugfest, but I also don't need every game to be a 42-35 shootout.
Those years had…Tom Brady, Ben Rothilsberger, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, Both Manning brothers, Drew Breeze, Phillip Rivers. Those are just the ones I can remember I’m sure I’m missing some but it was a blessed era for offenses.
Warner retired after '09, but I'd also add (along with Stafford) Tony Romo, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck to the list. Some guys like Derek Carr, Nick Foles, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Carson Palmer had a few good seasons in there as well.
This video was so good it really helped me understand why the NFL is less scoring but yeah defenses have truly gotten better and picked up what offenses do and how to play against them.
Pretty impressive that the Chiefs and Mahomes were able to completely pivot in early 2021 to a different style of play, and since they have won 2 Superbowls.
And they keep winning and taking advantage of it, it's like you had a billionaire so rich that the gov had to find a heavy tax for everyone, but ironically it only hurts the millionaires the billionaires still have the most cushion.
I’m glad that defense is gaining more of a footprint in the league. The decline in scoring reflects better defensive play, and in a decade that was previously dominated by offense, a shakeup to balance the game was needed.
Interestingly enough, the guy who arguably started this trend, and also crafted a fantastic game plan to stop the Chiefs (Todd Bowles). Has mostly reverted back to his (and the league's) old ways. The Bucs were bottom 3 in the league in explosive pass plays allowed in 2023, still relying on a lot of single-high coverage and classic spot drop zone, which once dominated the NFL of the past. Tampa also blitzed at one of the highest rates in the league. Personally, as a Bucs fan, I think it would behoove Bowles to pivot towards what the rest of the league is doing. Great vid btw
Thank you! And that’s an excellent point, when I was looking at blitz rates I couldn’t help but notice the Bucs were 3rd in the NFL in 2023 with a whopping 45%. Fascinating how Bowles has more or less managed to start this trend and then turn around and buck it!
I think it’s important to note that the Bucs D-line isn’t what it was in 2020. No more JPP and Suh. Others took a step back. They had trouble generating pressure with 4 last year.
I remember that Super Bowl. Mike Remmers was their starting RT, the same dude who got Cam Newton basically killed on the field by Von Miller in Super Bowl 50.
I feel like its not a coincidence the highest scoring year was also the year where players could actually hear the QB and coaches cause there were no fans
@@choosecarefully408 Most people use phones, I bet. So most people don't notice. But yeah. If you have a large screen computer, it's dental-appointment time, with you as the dentist. I never let anyone stand that close to talk to me in person. People put their cameras on top of their desktop screen. Back that camera off if you intend a career of YouTubing.
4:27 Chapter 1: Uncommon Advantageous set of circumstances. 5:22 3-5,000 Passing Yard Season 5:58 The NFL Passing Golden Age, The 2010s 10:35 The Pinnacle 11:39 13:08 Bucs 31 Chiefs 9 13:34 Todd Bowles Blitz Defense 14:07 Todd Bowles 2 Safety Defense to guard the Pass Attack 17:45 Rams vs Bills 🦬 Zone Coverage W 18:13 2022 Pass Defensive Revolution 🛡️ 18:52 ADOT Leaguewide 2018 to 2023 19:52 Two High Safeties, Zone Coverage Rate, Blitz Rate 20:52 Creative, Adaptive Defensive Schemes 21:31 Brian Flores Vikings
Excellent video explaining what many fans, especially chiefs fans have known for years. This also perfectly explains the tyreek hill trade. I know it got criticized extensively but anyone who saw this all playing out knew exactly why it happened.
DUDE! THEY LITERALLY JUST SAID WHAT YOU SAID ON TNF! “Ever since teams starting using two high safeties on mahomes everybody has been doing it and QBs have had to adjust. That’s why QB numbers are lower”
This video was great! I'm a big believer that the NFL is cyclical and certain trends are going to come back. I'm expecting Fullbacks and bigger Running Backs to make a return soon with more defenses playing 2 high safety and smaller/quicker defensive linemen who are chasing down athletic quarterbacks will get bodied... Expect more space-eating DL's and man coverage within 10 years.
Ironically this is also a video that speaks to Mahomes and Reid’s brilliance. Not only did they survive and adapt but they survived and thrived. The marquee of a HOF HC and QB. I believe offense will shift back to mid 2010 numbers as more teams figure out running the ball will open up so much for them. Hence, why so many offensive lineman were taken early in this years draft. God damn this game is a beautiful game 🏈
For most of their history the Bucs have been an also ran but it's interesting that they've started two defensive revolutions: The Tampa 2 in the 90s and this "Super Zone" era of the 2020s.
I love this video so much because as a dude who loves defense, it's infuriating how many people just say that offenses have gotten worse, when in reality it's very clearly the defenses getting better
Playing under center or having an effective run game is the key to beating quarters/cover 6. Defeating the 46 defense of the Ravens is more complicated, having a quick pass game that has multiple options or a run game that is overwhelming.
Ravens play 3-4 even that looks like a 4-3. And you aren’t going to beat them by running the front 7 is to strong and big . You have to spread them out.
Hey, after watching this you’ll feel motivated to dominate those papers like Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill dominated in the 1st quarter of Week 12 of the 2020 season!
That is an interesting point here. I feel it's too often forgotten that in that game, Mahomes threw two would-be TDs that hit a receiver in the facemask, and somehow both were dropped. The game could just as easily have ended 31-23, and wouldn't have felt like such a domination. And that actually might be why the overall defensive shift was as gradual as it was, not really taking full effect until an entire season later. Teams weren't yet sure if that game was an aberration, or if it still works without such a lopsided battle in the trenches. It wasn't really until teams saw it consistently give Mahomes fits in 2021 that everyone bought in.
What an amazing video. I’ve always wondered why some QB’s do better than other highly anticipated QB’s for seemingly no reason. It always just seemed random, which QB’s were gonna perform well. But it’s the ability to adapt to an ever changing game. Or at least that’s a big part of it.
Feels like a missed opportunity not to bring up how the Chiefs just won the Superbowl shutting down top offenses by blitzing and playing aggressive man coverage.
Officials have also been allowing more and more contact downfield, while O-linemen and receivers are called more often for infractions that were usually ignored in the recent past. This has begun to make various defensive concepts valid, including more one-on-one coverage. Roughing the passer calls also went down last year, and that's both the officiating and the technique of D-linemen. Coaches and players keep pushing the officials on the boundaries. Since it's easier to get pressure on the QB's and it's harder to get separation, complex scheming and disguising looks on both sides of the ball have become more useful. From Spags (and others), you don't know who's blitzing. Offenses are more prone to turn receivers and backs into extra blockers. Also, with the very physical play being allowed (encouraged?) downfield, bigger, more physically dominating receivers, who are more willing and able to mix it up before, during and after the catch (as well as performing blocks on D-linemen), have become more valuable. Young, skinny, fast kids coming out of college, thinking they'll dominate in the NFL, are going to need to bulk up and learn a wider array of skills, no matter how talented. This is why someone like Xavier Worthy is truly a "wait-and-see" for KC (and Buffalo) fans. He's not tall, and at 172, he's going to get knocked around like a pinball. And he's just one example. Until they change the rules, or start calling more DPI, etc., it's going to be very physical downfield. I also noticed in 2023 that, given a possible penalty (when any offensive holding actually occurred) it was more likely to be called in a pass-blocking scenario than in a running scenario. I don't know how that stacks up to previous years, but with the clear trend toward less aggressive calling of personal foul calls for late and out-of-bounds hits, we're likely to see more strange things happening at the QB position (i.e. QB2 becomes much more strategically important). Can't wait to see what they do this year!
Awesome video! You're absolutely right that the Chiefs' depleted O-line allowed Tampa to rush four and keep two safeties high while still creating pressure and therefore dominate Super Bowl LV. But I think we can use the same logic to figure out why Mahomes has been so good in his career against the blitz: more often than not, sending more than 4 defenders after the QB means only a single safety can play high, which opens up big play opportunities-or, if they blitz and leave two high, the middle of the field is wide open for chunk plays by YAC guys like Kelce, who may be the best non-QB at reading defenses and scheming himself open. And if those are covered too, it usually means there's running room for Mahomes to pick up a first down with his legs.
this a damn good video. title was interesting and vid explained and answered a question many football fans have been wondering about. watched every second
I remember watching a game 2019 where Mahomes threw 5 TD passes in the 2nd quarter against the Raiders, in Oakland. It was embarrassing. That's why the cover 2 shell is the base defense now.
Wow, seems like this video has taken off, thank you to everyone for watching! I appreciate all of the kind words and feedback, I’m glad you guys enjoy this, and your feedback and input is how I get better. Let’s keep it rocking and rolling!
Not a Brady fan. I agree with him on the mediocrity, these kids don’t know football and what it truly means to play the game until you can’t like we did years back. Money is what happened. Every play is a business decision.
The ravens simulated blitz sounds a lot like the zone blitzes were lineman dropped into coverage that teams most notably the Steelers ran in the 90s in response to the west coast offense.
As someone who had been bemoaning the lack of quality defense in the NFL over that stretch, I love to finally see some. It kinda sucks the drama and tension from the game when you know that if Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, etc. has the ball at the end of the game, they were GOING to score. There was no”let’s see what happens”. You may as well just fast forward to the touchdown. But while I’m happy to see it, I’m also scared to death that this is temporary and in 3-4 years, offenses will figure it out and go right back to being unstoppable.
It's amazing that offense has slowed down when the defense literally aren't allowed to even tackle QBs anymore, and offense PI is free reign while defensive is any time your hand touches the opponent. I actually have become so accustomed to the BS reffing that is the modern NFL that I was actually shaken when I went back to watch a game from 2013. Every single play was one I was expecting to see a flag come out on but never did. It's why I've said the NFL has become unwatchable lately. I miss watching football instead of a guy in a stripes moving the ball back and forth until someone has 3-4 attempts at throwing it into the endzone.
Good post. Offenses had it never easier than nowadays. Heck, in the brutal 80s, when QBs were fair game, passing was almost efficient (on per play basis) as nowadays. Those QBs didnt earn 50 mio for tossing 3 yard balls, they were paid 250 k to let 'er rip.
A big part about why scoring jumped so much from the previous year in 2011 and 2020 was because of no off-season pre Training Camp. 2011 had the lockout and 2020 had the pandemic.
Unless Todd Bowles somehow managed to make Toney line up offsides or let balls bounce off his hands to a defender I don't think this is why last year so many teams looked awful. I don't disagree that defenses have clearly caught up to offenses as a general statement but a lot of defenses looked bad last season too. The Ravens were the only consistently good looking team all year. Every other team had a stretch of absolute clunkers. Ugly football all year, and I'm a fan of good defense. Also Russell Wilson always had the issues he's had the last two years they were just masked by ref nonsense and a great defense.
Vic fangio actually started doing this first as the broncos head coach and had a lot of success. Not in wins but mahomes really struggled against the broncos defense when fangio was there because he just didn't call a blitz and disguised coverages. You can credit Bowles because he got the super bowl w, but fangio really showed teams how to play against these mobile qbs.
I think a part of why offense has reigned is because you just have an anomaly of extra-talented quarterbacks all playing, really, in one era. Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Brady, Stafford, and Roethlisberger, as well as other guys like Ryan, Cousins, and Wilson also lead very good offenses. Heck, even Cutler and Tannehill had solid years in this stretch, and rounding it out was Watson when he was actually good and didn't get rightfully blasted for being a creep. This new batch might all end up being the same sort of extra super talented group, but it's hard to say and honestly it's hard to imagine.
You know, that’s a very good point! Obviously player safety was the main reason behind banning the “hip drop” tackle but I wouldn’t be shocked if the league’s scoring decline wasn’t at the very least a slight factor in the NFL’s decision
I don’t know much about football but this is by far the most insightful trend analysis I have come across on YT. I have been wondering why chiefs collapsed in the SB and why their WRs struggled in recent years. I thought it was merely because the WRs weren’t good. I now understand why the old WR style of play is no longer the top on the book.
What's funny is my dad went from saying "are we ever going to see some defense show up to a game for once?" to saying "this is unbearable to watch, I swear every score is 16-10." real quick.
I was kinda like your dad in the first part, but in the second part, I was more like “FINALLY! We’re seeing some goddamn defense for a change!”. I got so sick of the way it was where if you gave a good offense the ball in a late game situation, it felt like an automatic score.
Really well put-together video! I thought it was a clickbait title and was skeptical, but you clearly put so much thought into this! This is such a breath of fresh air on NFL youtube (a landscape riddled with the likes of fivepoints and TGS)
This is an amazing video, entertaining and informative! I hope scoring doesn't get back to the previous level. I personally don't care for offense and all those flashy plays getting hyped up, and was really happy about the first half of this past SB. It's great to see it explained, and to be able to recognize it as part of the cycle of adapting :)
Usually when there's a scoring decline, the Competition Committee gets together and we end up having increased emphasis on PI/illegal contact/defensive holding (1996, 2004, 2014). But this time, it's simply due to defenses playing 2-high safeties as you mentioned. Unless they're going to outlaw that defense, there's not much that can be done other than teams going back to being run-heavy. Maybe it's time for the resurgence of the running back?
I think the new kickoff rules will boost the scoring average a bit. It'll have nothing to with defensive or offensive innovations, but will hopefully give us a few more exciting huge plays in games.
This 2 high safety has been around forever. The difference is, you used to get them out of it by running the ball at 5-10 yards a clip. When they’d bring that safety down, you could start to run plays action and kill them over the top.
Please please please I beg you for a detailed breakdown like this of the browns defense! It is fascinating and It’s rare to see a football analysis video combine humor and an efficient teaching ability to make it both entertaining and easy to follow. It’d be awesome to understand my favorite team on a deeper level! Alternatively… a breakdown of each divisions defense and make it a series? Nonetheless this video rocks 👍🏼
I know offense will always be more fun, your team gets to drive the whole field if they score, celebrations, etc… but defense is fun to watch too. I love a good late game pick, defense huddles in the endzone for a big group celebration.
Another reason for less blitzing is that you risk penalties when you try to tackle or disrupt the qb. 2017: 86 2018: 103 2019:124 2020: 104 2021: 132 2022: 82 2023: 68 The shift to two high safety and reduction in blitzes not only stopped the big play but also lowers the risk of getting a 1st down penalty called for making a football play and a qb lowering their head to protect themselves and causing a helmet to helmet collision…which is always the defenses fault.
Nice video, but I would like to make one suggestion. When you throw a bunch of numbers on the screen, it would be nice if you showed a chart along with them. That's quicker to interpret, so you don't have to spend so much time explaining the data and can spend more time analyzing it. E.g. at 6:13, a line or bar chart would really help drive the point home, and would make it obvious that 2017 is an outlier. The video never really addresses why 2017 bucked the trend in the 2010s, so it makes me wonder if the recent downward trend will also be temporary. But again, I'm not trying to nitpick; I still enjoyed the video. Also, Fargo has a Chick-Fil-A now. John Wheeler is working on more sunlight. :)
It's almost like it's Rock Paper Scissors. Heavy blitz gets blown out by deep throws. Deep Coverage gets beat by rushing, and rushing gets beat by a wall.
@scattau41 it helped me understand that a shift is here in the league and that certain types of players might not Excell as much as expected nor their peers. For example Caleb Wiliams who is an improv type QB might struggle more than expected and that larger receivers and RBs might be bigger factors going forward. Big implications when selecting in dynasty FF leagues
Exellent video. The NFL is a league of trends that shift once something is a success,adapt and change or die. Listening to all the talking heads on TV and radio for the last 10 years all you heard was the demise of the running back ,now without a good backfield most teams are screwed. After 4 or 5 seasons this to will change then its time to adapt and change or die.
Brees, Brady, Manning rodgers were all in their prime. Its hard to replace that kind of talent. Mahommes needs a rival or something cause hes by himself right now
Todd Bowles is just that guy.
He really is! What a home run hire for Tampa Bay
Wait is this frfr the bucs social media dude
That’s crazy lmao the BUCCANEERS commented 😭😂😭🤯😭👀 u going places for sure Mr.Pigskin
@@BENgalFan1369I think
To be fair mahomes carved up tod bowls in embarrassing fashion the next time they played lmao
For me this solidifies why the Legion Of Boom defense in 2013 is one of the very best in NFL history. Being able to shut down teams during the midst of all the advantage shifting to the offense is a monumental feat.
Billie Stephens explained this really well. An extra box defender to stop the run, stock Cover 3, an elite free safety who can cover both sidelines at once (like Earl Thomas), and great defensive backs.
Brandon Staley in 2020 designed a scheme using the Tite Front that does the same job.
same with the 2015 broncos. going against big ben, tom brady, and MVP cam newton on their superbowl run
Back then safeties could still light up receivers so Kam chancellor was an enforce and could hit.
The 49ers of those years had the inverse defense mindset , They were by far the best run defense in recent memory but in the end it didnt matter because The LOB had what mattered .
And the league created more rules to hinder defenses because of the LOB.
Something I'd like to note, Todd Bowles didn't wait until the Super Bowl to implement the strategy. Check the second half of that KC/Tampa game. The seeds were sown then.
Yup! Bowles figured them out and people forgot that the Bucs were coming back in that game.
People like the cheifs
We almost came back. If the game had 1 more quarter. The best second half adjustment I’ve ever seen
Mahomes was a legitimate superhero in that game. That was one of the most important games in the history of NFL. It was truly amazing.
If the officiating crew wasn't trying to fix for Brady, they wouldn't have made it to the Super Bowl much less win it
If you’re patient enough seemingly everyone can move the ball in between the twenties. The Meta is have a QB that can improvise and create passing opportunities in the redzone when it gets tight and has to be accounted for in the run game, and have a creative offensive scheme that can incorporate RPO’s.. This vid captures that perfectly
Facts, there are probably more than 15 qbs in the league that I think with the right ppl around could compete for a ring. Also defense is wildly underrated in team success perceived by the media and fans
You need an insane o-line or a goated qb/skilled position players who make room when there is none for sure in the redzone. But it is kinda funny seeing the teams that cant even move the ball in the middle of the feild, like how bad is that offense with all that space
Meta?? Bro this not a video game
@@yoboychris4149 but football is a GAME and games have metas that can be exploited
@@yoboychris4149 Meta stands for Most Effective Tactics Available, and while the gaming sphere uses that word the most, it has many applications outside it too.
this shows that the chiefs knew this when they traded hill and basicly their whole reciver group, they knew they needed a change after the changes in the NFL after they got beat in the AFC championchip by the bengals. In my opinion, the change in the big play frequency actully helps the enjoyment because their more valuable. Really enjoyd this, great video!
You're giving way too much credit to the Chiefs lol
@@Gdub33 ok
@@Gdub33 KC won back to back Super Bowls by doing that.. they deserve even more credit
@@ParkerBG lol. Do you or the OP not know what wr they picked up in the draft this year? Hahahaha. Yep it was complete strategy by the coaches and front office to let go of tyreek hill. They did that because they were forecasting on how the NFL was shifting 😉🤣😂🤣 🙄
They won 2 Superbowls back to back because of their QB and their TE. Just stop man, you're making me laugh at you two.
@@ParkerBGYeah bc they saved money and spent it on defense. It’s not bc they knew that their big play potential was destroyed already. That’s why they just drafted the fastest receiver ever.
It's always been this way in the NFL. Defenses eventually catch up.
It was because the KC O-Line was being dominated by the TB D-Line that they could play shell. KC's OTs were being dominated. TB didn't fear the run and Mahomes had no time to throw. They could mostly play off and come crashing, because they knew the ball was coming out quickly.
In reference to the SB the chief Oline got injured just before the superbowl where 2 starters went down.
@@introvertedextrovertedtraverwasn't it more them that? I think a couple of the backups also went down, had some 3rd stringers out there
I really agree with Harry mills
It's teams CANT throw deep because the pass rush talent is much superior to the offensive line talent currently
Literally a top 3 offensive lineman last year was ALMOST 43 years old
That speaks volumes
This also explains the rash of qb n running back injuries
The Bucs got the blueprint in their first matchup. They outscored them after that first quarter 24-10 when they started playing 2 high.
@@dreb5089bruh the chiefs was up by damn near 30. If they was figured out they wouldn't have put up 27 first quarter points 😂
And the Chiefs traded away Hill and signed two decent WR's and dinked and dunked their way to 2 more superbowls
Dink and dunked huh
They just adjusted and proved he didn't need A star receiver to win
@@moalston4203 Brady won SBs dinking and dunking.
@@epicphailure88 he did true but people get mad that fact
@@epicphailure88 true but mahomes throws the ball deep more time than Brady
Teams also are simultaneously de-valuing the running game and running backs as well as run-blocking traits in o-linemen, so when the passing game struggles or isn't putting up big yards and big points, they no longer even have the tools available to switch up to a heavier run game.
Additional point: Defenses were so blitz and man heavy in the past (at the early part and prior to the 2010s) because the best QBs would dice them up if they played zone. Brady was the king of this. I think the NFL saw the Giants beat Brady twice by having a relentless pass rush and assumed “I must pressure the QB by any means necessary”. I wonder if DCs went that route because they assumed “we are gonna get scored on anyways” so they took an aggressive approach to try and get TOs.
Also the blitz heavy, single-high, man-coverages are a lot less attractive if your offense also sucks and you are down by 14+ and aren’t forcing the other teams offense to pass. Meanwhile if you have an awesome offense and get UP by 14+ you can send the house and scar a QB for life 😅.
Very good points. I would like to also add that the Chiefs played a decent amount of man this year. So it can still be done with the right personal
Who are you making sense and understanding football???
Also I feel like defensive line play has gotten much better over time. I feel like it is much easier to get home with 4 as D linemen have become quicker and more agile to work around the o line. These more maneuverable D linemen/edge rusher are likely a result of less run heavy offenses.
@theclades3967 valid point!!! Meanwhile offensive line skill is plummeting so put 2 and 2 together.
I noticed in the Super Bowl that Mahomes didn’t make those crazy creative plays anymore. Now he just makes the right read and walk the offense down field with high percentage passes. He’s still the best QB I’ve ever seen.
Brady is better.
@@rogerl6212”i’ve ever seen”
@@rogerl6212only in stats. Mahomes has more raw talent
@@rogerl6212 brady fans are so tiresome with their insecurity
@@null_reference best thing is mahomes is way better statistically per year than brady ever was
Dawg talked ab his first Chick-fil-A like his first time performing coitus, never chabge doctor! 😂
Out of every comment I’ve ever received, I think this one has made me laugh the most 😂 thanks for watching!
I've been waiting for someone to make a video on this topic for years. Good work, you took the time and really put a lot into this. Thank you
I was literally about to make this comment but you already did lol. I've been waiting for a real good one on this too
You should watch Brett koleman. He made a video about this at the beginning of the season. This guy did a pretty good job covering it too
@steph_566 hell yeah I enjoyed that one too. I appreciate when people dive into some x's and o's
Ironically that just made it easier for the chiefs to win, because Patrick can adapt the best to the new defenses that were created to beat him, while others haven't managed to adapt as well.
That's crazy.
And with the additions of Xavier Worthy & Hollywood Brown, the Chiefs are re-opening the possibility of going back to just beating defenses downfield. The Chiefs didn't find themselves in an easier situation, they just adapted.
This was a REALLY good video. Completely opened my eyes to a new dimension of the game and what's been happening with it. Extremely well researched and put together. Love this content and I can't wait to see more like it! Dr. Pigskin knows ball.
Cool. Maybe throwing for 400 yards will actually start to mean something again.
Mahomes and the Chiefs were so good that the entire NFL changed the way they played defense just to stop them and other high flying offenses. And they still won back to back Superbowls.
Because they actually played like a real team. Instead of bazookaing their way down the field
I think the Tampa Super Bowl also changed them forever. They learned that tyreek was expendable and invested heavily on defense in the draft. If you go and look at how well they’ve drafted since 2020 it’s absurd
Yeah because they went and completely changed the way offense played and now Mahomes went from 9.1 ypa to like 4
The league adjusted, and then Mahomes and the Chiefs adjusted. Great teams do that.
Mahomes with the reverse Brady career arc
i like a happy medium between defense and offense. I don't want every game to end in a 7-3 slugfest, but I also don't need every game to be a 42-35 shootout.
One of the best NFL videos I've seen. The evolution of football is beautiful to watch. Great work!
Those years had…Tom Brady, Ben Rothilsberger, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, Both Manning brothers, Drew Breeze, Phillip Rivers. Those are just the ones I can remember I’m sure I’m missing some but it was a blessed era for offenses.
Lions sucked but Stafford was still a killer, especially with Megatron.
@@bigdug13 Stafford was never the Lions' problem.
Warner retired after '09, but I'd also add (along with Stafford) Tony Romo, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck to the list. Some guys like Derek Carr, Nick Foles, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Carson Palmer had a few good seasons in there as well.
@@Zalis116James? Lol
@@_Xds_30 for 30 and i think he also had 5K yards that year, yeah he was ugly to watch but the production was there
This video was so good it really helped me understand why the NFL is less scoring but yeah defenses have truly gotten better and picked up what offenses do and how to play against them.
Thank you, I’m glad you liked it!
this suck for the audience and NFL knew it, thats why they make it harder to tackle next season
Nfl defenses now just give up unlimited yards and trying to give up 3
Carlton Davis recovering in the SuperBowl to shut down Hill after Hill took his soul in that game is incredible
Pretty impressive that the Chiefs and Mahomes were able to completely pivot in early 2021 to a different style of play, and since they have won 2 Superbowls.
It’s a tuff pill to swallow that the most hated team in the league is the reason my favorite team can’t score 💀
And they keep winning and taking advantage of it, it's like you had a billionaire so rich that the gov had to find a heavy tax for everyone, but ironically it only hurts the millionaires the billionaires still have the most cushion.
You spelled best wrong
Dude what a refreshing channel. Love your stuff doc
I’m glad that defense is gaining more of a footprint in the league. The decline in scoring reflects better defensive play, and in a decade that was previously dominated by offense, a shakeup to balance the game was needed.
Interestingly enough, the guy who arguably started this trend, and also crafted a fantastic game plan to stop the Chiefs (Todd Bowles). Has mostly reverted back to his (and the league's) old ways. The Bucs were bottom 3 in the league in explosive pass plays allowed in 2023, still relying on a lot of single-high coverage and classic spot drop zone, which once dominated the NFL of the past. Tampa also blitzed at one of the highest rates in the league. Personally, as a Bucs fan, I think it would behoove Bowles to pivot towards what the rest of the league is doing.
Great vid btw
Thank you! And that’s an excellent point, when I was looking at blitz rates I couldn’t help but notice the Bucs were 3rd in the NFL in 2023 with a whopping 45%. Fascinating how Bowles has more or less managed to start this trend and then turn around and buck it!
I think it’s important to note that the Bucs D-line isn’t what it was in 2020. No more JPP and Suh. Others took a step back. They had trouble generating pressure with 4 last year.
I remember that Super Bowl. Mike Remmers was their starting RT, the same dude who got Cam Newton basically killed on the field by Von Miller in Super Bowl 50.
One of the coolest analysis videos I’ve ever seen. Great balance between deep insights and approachable explanations!
I feel like its not a coincidence the highest scoring year was also the year where players could actually hear the QB and coaches cause there were no fans
guys like Rodgers also abused the fact that he hears everything and get like a free play every game, resulting in his career best 48 tds and 4 ints
he’s back!!!
Back and better than ever 😎
My favorite NFL UA-camr. The Dr. is a cut above the rest
Wow, thank you! Those are some kind words, I’m glad you enjoy my content!
Good product. Sits too close to the camera.
@@harrymills2770 I didn't want to _say_ anything, but yeah, when he goes from footage back to his room, my personal space feels infringed upon.
@@choosecarefully408 Most people use phones, I bet. So most people don't notice. But yeah. If you have a large screen computer, it's dental-appointment time, with you as the dentist.
I never let anyone stand that close to talk to me in person.
People put their cameras on top of their desktop screen. Back that camera off if you intend a career of YouTubing.
4:27 Chapter 1: Uncommon Advantageous set of circumstances.
5:22 3-5,000 Passing Yard Season
5:58 The NFL Passing Golden Age, The 2010s
10:35 The Pinnacle
11:39
13:08 Bucs 31 Chiefs 9
13:34 Todd Bowles Blitz Defense
14:07 Todd Bowles 2 Safety Defense to guard the Pass Attack
17:45 Rams vs Bills 🦬
Zone Coverage W
18:13 2022 Pass Defensive Revolution 🛡️
18:52 ADOT Leaguewide 2018 to 2023
19:52 Two High Safeties, Zone Coverage Rate, Blitz Rate
20:52 Creative, Adaptive Defensive Schemes
21:31 Brian Flores Vikings
Excellent video explaining what many fans, especially chiefs fans have known for years. This also perfectly explains the tyreek hill trade. I know it got criticized extensively but anyone who saw this all playing out knew exactly why it happened.
DUDE! THEY LITERALLY JUST SAID WHAT YOU SAID ON TNF! “Ever since teams starting using two high safeties on mahomes everybody has been doing it and QBs have had to adjust. That’s why QB numbers are lower”
he’s done it again!! another certified classic
Thank you Henry! Happy to hear you enjoyed it
This video was great! I'm a big believer that the NFL is cyclical and certain trends are going to come back. I'm expecting Fullbacks and bigger Running Backs to make a return soon with more defenses playing 2 high safety and smaller/quicker defensive linemen who are chasing down athletic quarterbacks will get bodied... Expect more space-eating DL's and man coverage within 10 years.
Ironically this is also a video that speaks to Mahomes and Reid’s brilliance. Not only did they survive and adapt but they survived and thrived. The marquee of a HOF HC and QB. I believe offense will shift back to mid 2010 numbers as more teams figure out running the ball will open up so much for them. Hence, why so many offensive lineman were taken early in this years draft.
God damn this game is a beautiful game 🏈
For most of their history the Bucs have been an also ran but it's interesting that they've started two defensive revolutions: The Tampa 2 in the 90s and this "Super Zone" era of the 2020s.
NFL Offenses: "We're going to bomb the ball down the field"
... 6 years later
NFL Defenses: "We should stop that"
I love this video so much because as a dude who loves defense, it's infuriating how many people just say that offenses have gotten worse, when in reality it's very clearly the defenses getting better
Playing under center or having an effective run game is the key to beating quarters/cover 6.
Defeating the 46 defense of the Ravens is more complicated, having a quick pass game that has multiple options or a run game that is overwhelming.
The ravens don’t play a 46
Ravens play 3-4 even that looks like a 4-3. And you aren’t going to beat them by running the front 7 is to strong and big . You have to spread them out.
You don't know much
final papers can wait, Dr Pigskin posted!
Hey, after watching this you’ll feel motivated to dominate those papers like Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill dominated in the 1st quarter of Week 12 of the 2020 season!
@@dr.pigskin considering I had Tyreek Hill on my fantasy team that year, I concur
Chiefs receivers sold mahomes in the Super Bowl too
That is an interesting point here. I feel it's too often forgotten that in that game, Mahomes threw two would-be TDs that hit a receiver in the facemask, and somehow both were dropped. The game could just as easily have ended 31-23, and wouldn't have felt like such a domination.
And that actually might be why the overall defensive shift was as gradual as it was, not really taking full effect until an entire season later. Teams weren't yet sure if that game was an aberration, or if it still works without such a lopsided battle in the trenches. It wasn't really until teams saw it consistently give Mahomes fits in 2021 that everyone bought in.
I don't remember seeing this much holding going uncalled until recently.
good job bro you deserve way more subscribers for this content
What an amazing video. I’ve always wondered why some QB’s do better than other highly anticipated QB’s for seemingly no reason. It always just seemed random, which QB’s were gonna perform well. But it’s the ability to adapt to an ever changing game. Or at least that’s a big part of it.
New to the channel. Great video.
How many years of organized tackle 🏈 have you played or coached?
Feels like a missed opportunity not to bring up how the Chiefs just won the Superbowl shutting down top offenses by blitzing and playing aggressive man coverage.
Dr. Pigskin being a Vikings fan warms my cold Minnesotan heart. We suffered together but no more!
Officials have also been allowing more and more contact downfield, while O-linemen and receivers are called more often for infractions that were usually ignored in the recent past. This has begun to make various defensive concepts valid, including more one-on-one coverage. Roughing the passer calls also went down last year, and that's both the officiating and the technique of D-linemen. Coaches and players keep pushing the officials on the boundaries. Since it's easier to get pressure on the QB's and it's harder to get separation, complex scheming and disguising looks on both sides of the ball have become more useful. From Spags (and others), you don't know who's blitzing. Offenses are more prone to turn receivers and backs into extra blockers. Also, with the very physical play being allowed (encouraged?) downfield, bigger, more physically dominating receivers, who are more willing and able to mix it up before, during and after the catch (as well as performing blocks on D-linemen), have become more valuable. Young, skinny, fast kids coming out of college, thinking they'll dominate in the NFL, are going to need to bulk up and learn a wider array of skills, no matter how talented. This is why someone like Xavier Worthy is truly a "wait-and-see" for KC (and Buffalo) fans. He's not tall, and at 172, he's going to get knocked around like a pinball. And he's just one example. Until they change the rules, or start calling more DPI, etc., it's going to be very physical downfield. I also noticed in 2023 that, given a possible penalty (when any offensive holding actually occurred) it was more likely to be called in a pass-blocking scenario than in a running scenario. I don't know how that stacks up to previous years, but with the clear trend toward less aggressive calling of personal foul calls for late and out-of-bounds hits, we're likely to see more strange things happening at the QB position (i.e. QB2 becomes much more strategically important). Can't wait to see what they do this year!
Someone get this man more views
Great video. I can’t believe you only have 5.32 subscribers, that was great. I subbed. Keep up the great work!
Awesome video! You're absolutely right that the Chiefs' depleted O-line allowed Tampa to rush four and keep two safeties high while still creating pressure and therefore dominate Super Bowl LV. But I think we can use the same logic to figure out why Mahomes has been so good in his career against the blitz: more often than not, sending more than 4 defenders after the QB means only a single safety can play high, which opens up big play opportunities-or, if they blitz and leave two high, the middle of the field is wide open for chunk plays by YAC guys like Kelce, who may be the best non-QB at reading defenses and scheming himself open. And if those are covered too, it usually means there's running room for Mahomes to pick up a first down with his legs.
It's been a while since I've actually subscribed to a new channel. Looking forward to more, Doctor!
this a damn good video. title was interesting and vid explained and answered a question many football fans have been wondering about. watched every second
I remember watching a game 2019 where Mahomes threw 5 TD passes in the 2nd quarter against the Raiders, in Oakland. It was embarrassing. That's why the cover 2 shell is the base defense now.
Wow, seems like this video has taken off, thank you to everyone for watching! I appreciate all of the kind words and feedback, I’m glad you guys enjoy this, and your feedback and input is how I get better. Let’s keep it rocking and rolling!
TB12 lived ahead of that curve… quick slant after quick slant. Except for in 07.
Not a Brady fan. I agree with him on the mediocrity, these kids don’t know football and what it truly means to play the game until you can’t like we did years back. Money is what happened. Every play is a business decision.
I mostly agree. Brady was right about mediocre QB’s.
Notice the league pass leader promply became the quarterback throwing to..... Tyreek Hill :/
The ravens simulated blitz sounds a lot like the zone blitzes were lineman dropped into coverage that teams most notably the Steelers ran in the 90s in response to the west coast offense.
As someone who had been bemoaning the lack of quality defense in the NFL over that stretch, I love to finally see some. It kinda sucks the drama and tension from the game when you know that if Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, etc. has the ball at the end of the game, they were GOING to score. There was no”let’s see what happens”. You may as well just fast forward to the touchdown. But while I’m happy to see it, I’m also scared to death that this is temporary and in 3-4 years, offenses will figure it out and go right back to being unstoppable.
Called the zone blitz dude. It's not a new concept, just one that hasn't been used in a while.
It's amazing that offense has slowed down when the defense literally aren't allowed to even tackle QBs anymore, and offense PI is free reign while defensive is any time your hand touches the opponent. I actually have become so accustomed to the BS reffing that is the modern NFL that I was actually shaken when I went back to watch a game from 2013. Every single play was one I was expecting to see a flag come out on but never did. It's why I've said the NFL has become unwatchable lately. I miss watching football instead of a guy in a stripes moving the ball back and forth until someone has 3-4 attempts at throwing it into the endzone.
Good post. Offenses had it never easier than nowadays. Heck, in the brutal 80s, when QBs were fair game, passing was almost efficient (on per play basis) as nowadays. Those QBs didnt earn 50 mio for tossing 3 yard balls, they were paid 250 k to let 'er rip.
Thanks for being data into this argument not just vibes
Hello fellow North Dakotan. Bismarck native here. Really enjoyed this video. Keep it up.
A big part about why scoring jumped so much from the previous year in 2011 and 2020 was because of no off-season pre Training Camp. 2011 had the lockout and 2020 had the pandemic.
I was happy to see scoring go down
This actually makes way too much sense, awesome video
Unless Todd Bowles somehow managed to make Toney line up offsides or let balls bounce off his hands to a defender I don't think this is why last year so many teams looked awful.
I don't disagree that defenses have clearly caught up to offenses as a general statement but a lot of defenses looked bad last season too. The Ravens were the only consistently good looking team all year. Every other team had a stretch of absolute clunkers. Ugly football all year, and I'm a fan of good defense.
Also Russell Wilson always had the issues he's had the last two years they were just masked by ref nonsense and a great defense.
Vic fangio actually started doing this first as the broncos head coach and had a lot of success. Not in wins but mahomes really struggled against the broncos defense when fangio was there because he just didn't call a blitz and disguised coverages. You can credit Bowles because he got the super bowl w, but fangio really showed teams how to play against these mobile qbs.
Good job bud, really appreciate the time, effort, research and dedication
not even a fan of football much but the content is a great watch!! keep it up doc
I think a part of why offense has reigned is because you just have an anomaly of extra-talented quarterbacks all playing, really, in one era. Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Brady, Stafford, and Roethlisberger, as well as other guys like Ryan, Cousins, and Wilson also lead very good offenses.
Heck, even Cutler and Tannehill had solid years in this stretch, and rounding it out was Watson when he was actually good and didn't get rightfully blasted for being a creep.
This new batch might all end up being the same sort of extra super talented group, but it's hard to say and honestly it's hard to imagine.
Your channel is a gem. I see big things for you.
Very interesting take. Maybe the change in tackle rules for this upcoming season is an attempt by the League to undercut the defense trend? :)
You know, that’s a very good point! Obviously player safety was the main reason behind banning the “hip drop” tackle but I wouldn’t be shocked if the league’s scoring decline wasn’t at the very least a slight factor in the NFL’s decision
Defense has been neutered so hard by all the rules lower more skill based scoring is far more entertaining than just basically pussified flag football
I don’t know much about football but this is by far the most insightful trend analysis I have come across on YT. I have been wondering why chiefs collapsed in the SB and why their WRs struggled in recent years. I thought it was merely because the WRs weren’t good. I now understand why the old WR style of play is no longer the top on the book.
What's funny is my dad went from saying "are we ever going to see some defense show up to a game for once?" to saying "this is unbearable to watch, I swear every score is 16-10." real quick.
I was kinda like your dad in the first part, but in the second part, I was more like “FINALLY! We’re seeing some goddamn defense for a change!”. I got so sick of the way it was where if you gave a good offense the ball in a late game situation, it felt like an automatic score.
Really well put-together video! I thought it was a clickbait title and was skeptical, but you clearly put so much thought into this! This is such a breath of fresh air on NFL youtube (a landscape riddled with the likes of fivepoints and TGS)
The production quality had me thinking this was a 100k+ sub yt channel,keep up the good work youre going to blow up soon trust
This is an amazing video, entertaining and informative! I hope scoring doesn't get back to the previous level. I personally don't care for offense and all those flashy plays getting hyped up, and was really happy about the first half of this past SB. It's great to see it explained, and to be able to recognize it as part of the cycle of adapting :)
Usually when there's a scoring decline, the Competition Committee gets together and we end up having increased emphasis on PI/illegal contact/defensive holding (1996, 2004, 2014). But this time, it's simply due to defenses playing 2-high safeties as you mentioned. Unless they're going to outlaw that defense, there's not much that can be done other than teams going back to being run-heavy. Maybe it's time for the resurgence of the running back?
I think the new kickoff rules will boost the scoring average a bit. It'll have nothing to with defensive or offensive innovations, but will hopefully give us a few more exciting huge plays in games.
This 2 high safety has been around forever. The difference is, you used to get them out of it by running the ball at 5-10 yards a clip. When they’d bring that safety down, you could start to run plays action and kill them over the top.
Please please please I beg you for a detailed breakdown like this of the browns defense! It is fascinating and It’s rare to see a football analysis video combine humor and an efficient teaching ability to make it both entertaining and easy to follow. It’d be awesome to understand my favorite team on a deeper level!
Alternatively… a breakdown of each divisions defense and make it a series? Nonetheless this video rocks 👍🏼
I know offense will always be more fun, your team gets to drive the whole field if they score, celebrations, etc… but defense is fun to watch too. I love a good late game pick, defense huddles in the endzone for a big group celebration.
Todd Bowles already credited the Falcons for what they did earlier that year against the Chiefs
Another reason for less blitzing is that you risk penalties when you try to tackle or disrupt the qb.
2017: 86
2018: 103
2019:124
2020: 104
2021: 132
2022: 82
2023: 68
The shift to two high safety and reduction in blitzes not only stopped the big play but also lowers the risk of getting a 1st down penalty called for making a football play and a qb lowering their head to protect themselves and causing a helmet to helmet collision…which is always the defenses fault.
This channel is gonna be huge
Yet people will consistently complain about how defense is dead in the league
We know that every Defense gets scored on so yea defense wins games but teams still score every game
Nice video, but I would like to make one suggestion. When you throw a bunch of numbers on the screen, it would be nice if you showed a chart along with them. That's quicker to interpret, so you don't have to spend so much time explaining the data and can spend more time analyzing it. E.g. at 6:13, a line or bar chart would really help drive the point home, and would make it obvious that 2017 is an outlier. The video never really addresses why 2017 bucked the trend in the 2010s, so it makes me wonder if the recent downward trend will also be temporary. But again, I'm not trying to nitpick; I still enjoyed the video.
Also, Fargo has a Chick-Fil-A now. John Wheeler is working on more sunlight. :)
This is art, doctor!
Thank you James, glad you enjoyed it!
It's almost like it's Rock Paper Scissors. Heavy blitz gets blown out by deep throws. Deep Coverage gets beat by rushing, and rushing gets beat by a wall.
Yo this is my first time seeing one of your vids and really enjoyed it think you got crazy potential bro keep it up 💪
Dude...thank you...this video was...revelatory....you've helped me make my dynasty football plan much more precise
in what ways?
@scattau41 it helped me understand that a shift is here in the league and that certain types of players might not Excell as much as expected nor their peers. For example Caleb Wiliams who is an improv type QB might struggle more than expected and that larger receivers and RBs might be bigger factors going forward.
Big implications when selecting in dynasty FF leagues
Its like the game of football is a constant war between offensive minds and defensive minds that makes the game evolve over time
Really nice analysis bro great vid
Exellent video. The NFL is a league of trends that shift once something is a success,adapt and change or die. Listening to all the talking heads on TV and radio for the last 10 years all you heard was the demise of the running back ,now without a good backfield most teams are screwed. After 4 or 5 seasons this to will change then its time to adapt and change or die.
I really enjoyed this past SB between the Chiefs and the Niners. There was good offense and good defense both. It felt really balanced.
Brees, Brady, Manning rodgers were all in their prime. Its hard to replace that kind of talent. Mahommes needs a rival or something cause hes by himself right now