Why the Middle East Is So Aggravating (yet so difficult to leave) || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубліковано 29 вер 2024
- The Middle East has been a thorn in the side for the US since day one, so why haven't the Americans just abandoned ship? To understand why the US is still involved in the Middle East (and openly facing these potshot-esqe attacks), we need to breakdown this region...
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#middleeast #iran #syria #attack
You should do more long form content. This was immensely enjoyable.
His multi hour speeches & presentations are on YT. Or buy his books.
Get the books on Audible and be entertained for days. Start with Accidental Superpower. God shed his grace on thee indeed. You’ll realize we ourselves are our only meaningful enemy.
Peter is an unbelievably brilliant guy who provides insights that no one else can. Love these videos 👏
I don't like or agree with every single thing Peter says, but man would I love to hang out with him for a few weeks
A few WEEKS?!
@@bobwoods1302yeah itd be the craziest hiking trip of your life
@@hazb8026 Sure would lol
Try minutes first, you'd get bored fast trust me
@@prsimoibn2710i watch all of his presentations so I doubt it.
Peter, could we hear more about Turkey's overall trajectory in the region? I feel like we hear drips and drabs about Turkey's importance, but it'd be interesting to her your perspective on how they stand to gain/lose prominence as a global player over the next few decades.
Well done. Thanks for the rundown...and for respecting my ability to grasp these things.
😂😂😂😂😂
As a Nigerian, here's my simple answer: Bad geography, poor social and economic systems, poor political systems, failing legal and social institutions, dutch disease, tribalism and others. Also, the colonialism excuse is just lazy and mainly used by tribalist Arabs as an excuse. Same way Pan-Africans use it as an excuse for Africa's failings.
I agree wholeheartedly
I would also add winter. Because we experience winter in Europe (which creates scarcity and other challenges), we developed a culture of planning ahead.
Hoping Nigeria can manage to overcome all the challenges you correctly noted and keep building up the economy, your country has so much potential to be a powerhouse.
House slave detected.
what is dutch disease?
the first 5 minutes introduction are very well informative and intesresting. great
We needed to get out of there 30 years ago. The only reason we did not was political/oil. Now we are stuck with a mess. It is not like we did not have the tech to work around the problems caused by that area. politics kept us there to feed big oil and also feed the military industrial complex.
I’ve watch all Peters vids and I think this is the best one yet. What a service he is providing. I vote for getting the F out of there. Too much blood and treasure wasted already. Thanks Peter.
While it’s understandable that this is an oversimplified and infinitesimally brief rundown of millennia long history, it overlooks the following aspects among many many others:
1. Several fields of science and in general, knowledge, owe their existence and progress to major contributions from Arab names.
2. States have very rarely been destabilised (Arab or otherwise) from within or with the help of outside forces where United States wasn’t directly or indirectly involved.
3. The same era when Arab Nations were phasing into irrelevance (according to you) when Long Distance Sea Travel was become a norm, there were upheavals all across Europe due to nobles treating the same skinned people as them as less than (French Revolution, anyone?)
4. The Technological disparity that you portray existed between the West and the Middle East can occur in the same country in different places, and often times not updating with the times itself is a sign of the glory days being behind you. Cohorts of population, certain cities and even adjacent neighbourhoods can experience this.
5. It’s “MuJAHIdeen”, not “MuHAJIdeen”.
Superb history lesson from the incomparable P-Zed.
Only man I know who can decipher the enigma which is middle eastern politics.
Rainfall should not be considered a major factor for industrialization and it also shouldn't be ignored that gunpowder & cannons were of regular use in the Islamic world for a long time while Europe had to continue catching up. One of the largest factors for not industrializing was an economically illiberal regime in the Ottoman Empire and some level of geographic determinism in that industrial work generates a lot of heat which is much more tolerable in cooler climates which also benefitted from lacking the easier money available from cash cropping in hot/wet regions.
half of the time he doesn't know what he's talking about
@@paximperium8471 He has a decent grasp on world diplomacy and long term macro-economic trends, but he often fails in the details and histories. It's always good to listen to multiple people and evaluate their strengths to get a good picture of anything.
Brilliant! I've always only looked at this from a religious/cultural standpoint. Your argument to leave is compelling. But abandoning the Middle East to regional conflict is dangerous in a world full of nukes. Because others like China and Europe are going to remain reliant on their energy, it also opens up wider conflict. As always it remains the festering sore that heal. Once fossil fuel falls by the wayside like whale blubber, we can leave them to their camels and sand.
That is really the only option, IMO. There will be a humanitarian disaster in the region in due course. Without oil, the region cannot support a population of much larger than a few million - and perhaps not even that.
Meanwhile the smug face increasing drug addicted societies with greed, lack of morality in all areas & backscratching corruption from the top down....Nice...
Peter’s style is to give a very understandable overview of what’s happening and why. Thank you Peter!!
Islam! Islam! Islam! Let’s not forget that the inheritance laws and religious concepts that didn’t permit loans or investments to have interest. These concepts made commerce next to impossible to build businesses and killed innovation because no one could get financing. Lots of crazy social idea’s also killed startups.
Absolutely nutty good summary of Middle Eastern history. Genius
Can we talk about the issues instead of stroking Peter's ego every other comment? You enter the chat and the top comments are all about how cool Peter is. Get over it. It never stops. He doesn't even care. 🤷🏼♂️
"Talk amongst yourselves."
BRILLIANT summary of the region - something everyone with a brain needs to hear.
Another PZ informative installment. Bravo - things we all know separately, but succinctly summarized. 👍
Amazing amount of information here. Thanks
I love how Peter is always hiking through a new place 😂❤
That was a pretty good fair and balanced job, Peter. Thanks
Broad strokes leave coverage flaws
Because a a hundred of years ago we and the British made all kinds of conflicting deals with multiple groups that were never going to be honored and then we've had to stay involved in the area to keep it stable & suitably unstable at the same time for our benefit.
Really enjoy these cliff notes.
Thank you. I have a better understanding of the why - right now.
Sam Kinison's bit on world hunger accurately describes the entire middle east.
The historical statement that the middle east only preserved knowledge is inexact. There was enormous creativity during the arab enlightenment, in medicine, mathematics, philosophy and many other subjects. This is not a political statement, I'm a historian. Climate can indeed be very influential, but for a region that has had very pronounced up and downs, other factors must also be considered.
With respect, I think your statement is also inexact. Much of the supposed medical, mathematical, and philosophical 'achievements' of the middle east during the middle ages HAS been clearly shown to be Muslims simply 'digesting/copying' previous (mostly western) knowledge. Medicine? Arabic medical prowess was almost entirely copied from ancient greek physicians. Mathmatics? Same thing, only this time it was pre-christian greek and persian mathematicians they copied/expounded on. Philosphy? Again, Muslim philosophy during this time period was mostly Muslim's attempt to reconcile Islam with western philosophers like Aristotle, etc.
The real reason many people incorrectly attribute these achievements to Muslims is because, with the MASSIVE spread of Arabic as a common language (especially written language) as Muslims repeatedly used war during the middle ages to rapidly spread, you had, for the first time in over 500 year (since the romans and latin), a way to transmit writing/knowledge over VAST distances and have that knowledge be understood by someone hundreds or thousands of kilometers/miles away. So what did this do? Over time people, even in the west, forgot that the knowledge of theMuslims was actually once theirs, and they just assumed that it came from the Muslims, when in fact it hadn't.
The only reason the false narrative of the Middle East as a place where signfiicant new knoweldge was 'discovered' in the middle ages, is, frankly, becauses of Historians who, since America invaded the Middle East have pandered HARD to muslims, even going so far as to complelty ignore the simply massive evidence that 'muslim' knowledge actually predated Islam. I will admit that there was SOME new thinking coming out of the Middle East during this time period. However, the VAST majority of this 'new' thinking was actually just Islam attempting to metabolize western knowledge. In other words its was still reactionary. Baghdad is a good example of this. Middle ages baghdad has this reputation as this center of knowledge, and it was, but it was western knowledge that was compiled, so that religious muslim scholars could have some kind of response to: such as the writings of aritstotle.
The caliph absorbed those things from the Byzantines, the Mediterranean civilizations, Spain, and India. The knowledge of medicine, mathematics, philosophy, and other disciplines has existed throughout various civilizations in history. It ebbs and flows with cataclysms and warfare diminishing it, followed by interaction through trade that expands it. The Sumerians and ancient Babylonians had much of his knowledge, as did the Egyptians, Greeks, and Romans.
@@LRRPFco52 of course, everyone has used previous knowledge, including the west. There was, however, undisputedly, new knowledge created, for example, in mathematics, demonstrations of quadratic equations by Al-Khwarizmi. There were not taken from India, they were new. As to the other person's statement, I would say that it has also been the case that the west has tried to deny the degree to which it has learned from others. For example, in the early XX century Miguel Asin demonstrated that the Divine Comedy took much from Arabic literature; at the time, this was fiercely disputed, and nobody wanted to recognize it. Now, even if not well known, this is considered proven.
On May 5, 1943, Gen. George S. Patton wrote in a letter that some of his soldiers brought in an Arab whose donkey was carrying basket loads of mines.
"I asked them why they hadn’t buried him. They said he was still alive. I said, ‘Well, go ahead and bury him,’ but they said, ‘General, he is alive.’
‘Well,’ I said, ‘that can be corrected.’"
I like this stories that explain things from several books and hours of reading into a few minutes. I would have no time to read the right books. You will never hear this from CNN or other news channels.
Peter is right that the natural state of affairs in the region is autocratic regimes, we saw this with Saddam Hussein, Assad, Mubarak and now Sisi in Egypt, the House of Saud, etc. The experiment with democracy in Iraq is an anomaly. If we leave that's what it would revert back to, bloodily as he points out. However, we have also seen that this is not a stable state of affairs.
In the 80s we stayed out of the region, and Iraq started a major regional war we could not ignore, invading Kuwait and putting tank divisions right next to the Saudi oil fields. In the 90s we stayed out of Afghanistan and they supported the twin towers attack. Staying out doesn't work. Does stying in work? The region is going to be a mess regardless. So the choice is between long term persistent low intensity conflict with occasional painful casualties, but with the ability to have a say in what happens in the region. It at least gives us an ability to veto various states of affairs, such as a resurgent ISIS. If we pull out the low level attrition goes away, but we have no say, no influence on the ground, and expose ourselves to long term massive risks down the line, like the ones we have already seen happen, that we'll have little or no chance of avoiding.
As Peter says, we can take our pick.
I agree that deomacracies are not the norm in the Middle East/for Islam. You mentioned Egypt/Iraq, and I would add what's happening in Turkey and Tunisia. The ONLY places where democratic processes took some form of hold were they places with extreme western influence or intervention. With Turkey it was Kemal Mustafa (Ataturk) a lover of the west, and western ideals who FORCED turkey to turn away from many Muslim practices. For Tunisia, it was France. But the moment these western pressures leave/die out, the nations immediatley begin to slide back to Religious autocracy. Again, look at Turkey and Tunisia, both once tauted as proof Muslims could have some form of democracy, and both now with autocratic religiously backed leaders.
@@carlpolen7437 I think you're conflating islam with the local political dynamics a lot there. There is one country in the Middle East that is a religious autocracy and it's not even Arab, it's Iran.
There are two norms in the Arab world, autocratic monarchies like the gulf states and Saudi Arabia, or secular Ba'athist dictatorships. The Saudis are the closest to being a religious state in the Arab world, but even there the royal family is firmly in control, the clerics have influence only at their discretion. It's easy to conflate Sharia law with religious dictatorship, but it's just the dominant legal system in the culture. Yes it's religiously based, but the majority of the population are muslims including the leaders.
As I said, Iran is genuinely a religious state, that's what that looks like. Nowhere else in the region actually looks like that ( or a Sunni version of it), not even Saudi. Islamic State did, but they got smashed.
Turkey, the other major non-Arab regional power, has persistent autocratic tendencies by western standards but is still a real democracy. I don't like Erdogan, but the fact is he pretty clearly won the elections. Yes, I know he suppresses free speech and undermines democracy, but I genuinely don't think that swung the election for him, like it or not he really is genuinely popular with a majority of Turks.
@@simonhibbs887 I don't like Erdogan either. But I acknowledge that he is a very able politician and statesman.
You forgot two major points. Iraq was at war with Iran for ten years, with the backing of the West. Back when Sadam was the Wests best friend in keeping Iran's "revolution" from spreading. And of 9 -11, The terrorists were Saudi, Egyptian and Kuwait. Planned by a Kuwaiti, Osama, that was hiding in Afghanistan because the Saudi's had kicked him out. Peter says nothing about when Iran becomes Nuclear which is just a matter of years. That will cause a major change in the Region. Counties will have to choose between the Iran or the Israeli nuclear umbrella.
@@simonhibbs887 it’s laughable that you think there is only one religious autocracy in the Middle East/muslim countries.
Informed, coherent, rational summaries of complex matters. Imagine if the USA could elect a president of this calibre.
Culture matters.
Holding darkness at bay? I think Europe brought darkness to the middle east. Britain's strategy during the colonization era was to prevent the development of a strong, stable country in the region and created Israel to help achieve this goal. This strategy continues by the US. In contrast, the middle east brought lights to Europe in the middle ages through Spain and Southern Italy. Maybe you need to have a closer look at history.
Every night i listen to Peter and lately every night my wife wants me to tell her what you have to say so she can fall asleep faster. 😂
All that while hiking. Respect
Thank you
I listen to this channel to get a feel of what Americans who will never leave the US want to believe about the rest of the world and how it works. TBH, I travel a fair bit and almost everywhere, people are tired of the Americans and are moving on. The US is almost irrelevant. In India, almost everything is made in China - although there is no love for China. The only American brands are Coke and McDonalds etc, and even there, they are selling Indian products. In Istanbul or Dubai, there is very little American influence, they are vibrant cities and have their own culture…South America, also I see growing Chinese and Asian influence over American. I guess all the people who want to be American are trying to get across the border…I was in Malaysia and genuinely people are not as interested in America. America is running up a trillion dollars in debt every 3 months trying to keep up this facade. The largest American companies like Apple, MSFT, Amazon and Walmart rely on Asian people or production to exist…this hubris from people like Peter Zeihan will not end well. JMHO.
Ocean sailing and rain. Whodathunkit? Peter.
"these regions have no economic underpinning" - curious how hydroponics and other tech could change that. The Line would be worthwhile if it would try that I think!
I am amazed by the level of confidence as he dashes out a fan fiction account of the history of the middle east.
It has barely enough real data points to make it plausible. But wouldn't survive any expert scrutiny.
The west being on par with Asia and ahead of the middle east is just ludicrous.
The Arab civilization that just perserved western culture is silly. Also, Greek science being Western is a confortable fiction but Greeks have always been more connected to Middle Eastern scholarship with the notable exception of tbe Romans who themselves profited from the Greek and moved to the East themselves.
Etc, etc.
That said. I do enjoy Peter's narratives and narrations.
This is a pretty rough & over simplified read on the situation. The middle east has had stable governments & kingdoms for most of it's history. In fact these regions formed the foundation of western civilization (Re: Assyria, Babylon, Persian empire, etc.). The middle east was a peer to the Western powers up until the industrial age (about 1800's) & the Western imperial powers never really had a foot hold in the region until WW1 when the allies broke the back of the Ottoman empire which controlled most of the Islamic world (North Africa, Middle east & parts of western Iran). It was the western powers which ended up destabilizing this region more than the locals & are largely to blame for the current shit storm.
I’ve never seen somebody so confidently talk out of their ass before.
I think Peter was one of the experts putin was referring to in tucker interview
Peter Zohan here taking a walk after a dump
Clans, tribes, religions, governments, ethnicities, races, culture, resources, corruption, transportation routes…. There is no ‘fixing’ the Middle East or Africa. It doesn’t go back a thousand years, but thousands of years. The US can do nothing to ‘fix’ that. The president of Rwanda recently stated concerning the West (Paul Kagame)….aid is politics (corrupt politicians and politics)….trade is neutral. That’s the best advice….stay out of these countries, don’t try to change them (because you won’t)….just trade with them!
shipping, it wasn't safe to stay put some places until they discovered latitude, then depending on the map and you could work out latitude and longitude you could tell whether you were going to be safe territory with friend, or foe.
Gun powder was introduced to the West from China via Central Asia and the Middle East. The Mongols introduced it and the Turks took down Constantinople with the technology. Spain had experience with gun powder because there was a Muslim presence for 7+ Centuries.
As a kid no lie in my mind it was just like The 7th Voyage of Sinbad
Then my Dad went to Iraq in 90' and CNN showed me it was exactly like Sinbad films but with tanks and scud missiles instead of flying carpets and genies
An entire course worth of insights. We normally play at best single board chess. He's networking networks of games.
Brilliant Insights and Analysis!!!!
I'd have to give a C- on this one. Barely any mention at all about Israel and how Israel came into being, how Israel has given up on any attempt to come to an accomodation with the Palestinians and now actively seeks to expel them, creating massive tension in the region, and further, how over time Isreal it has co-opted US politics to the extent that US support of Israel has become unthinking, uncritical and increasingly counter-productive to the US's own interests, dragging the US back into the region over and over, weakening it and diverting its attention from the bigger challenge presented by China and Russia.
Hello! Where does the resource originate for 84 million people to live in Yeman? How about Egypt? Oil works for some areas, but the 'trickle-down' is small. Regards
Can we just elect Peter for President?
They have oil and people outside the region want to control it. Any questions?
never the innocent and never on anyone's holy grounds. we need to give up on trying to rule the world and worry about our own heart, our own land.
Your explanation of ME financial and societal problems does not explain for Israeli (outlier) successes. Turns out some ppl figured out how to turn desert into progress. Why then did others not 🤔🤔
Is there any reason to believe Peter's summary and options are understood and accepted by American national security culture? How would we know?
Yeah he's a good Wordsmith..
Anybody who has been anywhere in the Middle East and met the “people” that live there understands what is going on there.
The answer is simple - it's a blood feud that's been ongoing since about 1840 BC.
You can blame it all on Abraham - he never should've knocked up his slave-girl Hagar, then let his wife Sarah banish her to the desert. Hagar bore Ishmael, who unsurprisingly was taught to hate Abraham's legitimate son, Isaac. Isaac is the father of Israel, while Ishmael is the father of the Arabs. And nothing has changed in the past ~3860 years.
I say who cares now about a blood feud that began 3000 years ago. WHY is the US still in that region. GET OUT and let them deal with their own family arguments.
Geography and climate didn’t stop pre-Islamic Egypt and Persia from becoming highly advanced civilisations and staying that way for centuries (actually in Egypt’s case it was millennia). We all know what the elephant in the room is.
What will happen with the US national debt? Will we get to a point where we're only able to pay the interest? Will we default?
He's so Machiavellian. Even when I don't agree with him he's fun to listen to.
Why would Israel March into Syria? Didn't understand
Why the Middle East is so Aggravating?
Perhaps this will help:
Zechariah 12:2-Start there and continue reading.
in the middle east rn. can confirm no one wants to be here
That was a gem of a "podcast!" I think I'll have to give it another listen. Great connection front tradition, history, economics to today. Sharp and that's why I listen. Gratzi
Alternate solution: don't do something that would necessitate "the US coming after them...and they were done."
Look at the events from 1948 and you answered your question.
can't leave cuz of the oil
I'll go with option C, we leave and focus on the upcoming super bowl.
A not insignificant reason to stay is if the US were to abandon the region and Turkey has its way, they will try to smash the Kurds. The US has a justified obligation to the Kurds. It seems easily forgotten amongst politicians' internal power struggles, but abandoning partners is not good for long term national security.
Answer:
Oil
It feels like we have not considered a societal change in these places to change their fundamental thinking. The problem is Islam and we haven’t taken an approach to offer an alternative (even though it may not work) to that worldview.
I’m just glad the Americans are in charge. Could you imagine a world if any of the other superpowers were ??
(From a British person , mid fifties, been around as well)
16 minutes on why the Middle East is the way it is and no mention, not a single word, about Islam.
Because controlling the center square in tic tac toe has always been important.
"...we tried to make Iraq look like Wisconsin..." 🤣🤣🤣
Lmao not enough beer
Or 🧀
@@bryanreed1328 which is ironic because beer (or more accurately, ale) was a big part of pre-Islamic peasant culture in the grain growing areas of the Middle East.
Instead we made Michigan look like Iraq.
@@FamilyManMoving Hey. That's not fair.
Iraq has better water.
Thank you
Tack! Learning so much here. Probably 99% of world population doesn't know this, which is pretty much a scandal. Geopolitics should be taught 10x more in school. Thanks Peter!
Nej, it's better that government run "teachers" stay out of (geo)politics. There is no chance they are going to give the correct story. Schools should stay to the "how to" not the "what to". How to read, write and do math.
They'd rather teach national myth and propaganda, sadly.
@@visby2548 1) Teachers are not neccessarily run by government and "government" (whatever that is) isn't neccessary incorrect. The truth is probably that no one is correct. It is probably impossible to be entirely correct when it comes to geopolitics. Things can be described from different philosophical standpoints, summarized over different timeframes and in the end the winners (and some losers) write the history books differently. What I am after isn't correctness, but that people should learn the basic mechanisms of geopolitics at an early age. I am personally shocked I wasn't exposed to Peters stuff earlier in life and that no one I know seems to know much about it. 2) Who should teach geopolitics? Ah, Peter. Well, thats great - but I feel its too late in life for me. I would litterary have lived a different and smarter life if I'd known even half of what Peter has cranked out since he started craking out his bits.
Don't miss Those Sowells assessment of African geography.
99% of the world, or 99% of the US? 😅
Most Americans find it hard to retire comfortably amid economy downtrend. Some have close to nothing going into retirement, my question is, will you pay off mortgage as a near-retiree, or spread money for cashflow, to afford lifestyle after retirement?
as most investing-related questions, the answer is, it depends.. my best suggestion is to consider advisory management
this is huge! mind if I look up the advisr that guides you please? only invest in my 401k through my employer for now, but enthused about diversifying my investments for a prosperous financial future
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
I hope readers realize that this is an entirely fake conversation designed to advertise a certain advisor.
@@tonyrobinson1623this user does,
Fake conversations
A no cut 16 minute summary of the Middle East. Respect for Peter’s insane public speaking skills.
Holding his phone up the whole time no less😂
You should check out the Duran you will get a non bias report.
There is a cut at about 11:03
@@big1boston They are Russian mouth-pieces
@@bcanuck they are British and Greek. The news is accurate.
Every morning I wake up, shower and shave, and watch Peters latest video with a hot coffee.
Alright, don't remember asking but fair enough.
That's my morning routine as well!
You don't shit? 😮
That's a nice morning routine! Respect
The definition of privilege.
Spoken like someone who didn’t take time to learn the proper history of the middle east. The way he speaks about this region is very problematic because he continues to push the belief that they are backwards and would have remained in the stone age if it wasn’t for the ‘western savior’. It’s a racist point of view that basically erases and over simplifies an entire region. For centuries places like Morocco and Iraq were the centers of learning and advancement. He clearly hates Arabs and thinks very little of them. Not only that but trying to excuse what happened in Iraq and saying ‘it’s debatable if it was a success or not’ is ridiculous. The truth is the region was stable for centuries and was only destabilized by the greed of the west. They went in to take down the Ottoman Empire and broke up the region into regions and areas that they thought they could control, and more importantly, exploit. And the reason that there is a continued presence in the region is to keep it destabilized. There is no doubt that the western powers are scared of another islamic empire rising and dominating the region like they have in the past. ‘The capacity for an outright civilization collapse is very real’. So for those hundreds of years before America existed, the region was in disarray? I’ve been watching Peter for a while and I think he has some valuable insights in some things, but definitely not the middle east. He’s clearly racist and has no understanding of the region.
He's glib and doesn't even touch on many things but you didn't understand what he was saying if this is your takeaway. He has talked about the fall of the Ottomans and the creation of the modern statelets imposed on the region before in other forums but not here because that set of facts didn't apply to the history of why Iranian proxies attacked American forces and their trainees in Syria, the Ottoman period had zero to do with it. Other parts of long ago history did, in a roundabout way that while an excellent bit of oration, perhaps didn't always circle back to the premise enough for you to even remember what the premise was. The Americans are there at the tail end of a big economic story that is coming to the final bits of the chapter in which they see good reason to be there in the first place. They are trying to leave, retreating the sphere of economic influence that is reshaping the world order that stabilized the last 80 years. There will be a new order that the statelets probably won't survive through, barring Turkey. It probably will be very ugly, and part of his glibness is humor to show he doesn't like it, not racism against Arabs. In economic terms, the Middle East after Babylon always has been just a crossroads for trade between the empires that shape the way things work, when it's Persia or Rome or the Ottomans holding the whole area it works out fine for the locals, but the statelets formed by Sykes-Picot definitely are not up to that task once the order imposed by Bretton Woods goes away. And it's going away, the whole thing Zeihan's been saying his whole career but most people pretend isn't happening.
That strategy was GOING to be worth it in a world where we never struck shale oil. Now that we have...
Presumably it's worth it rather than leaving and having isis conquer Iraq or otherwise make a country for themselves and have to deal with a much bigger thing in the future
Won't Last THAT long at the current rate of consumption, though.😱
@@LoneWolf-wp9dnwont happen the turks or Israelis would replace what the Americans been doing in the middle east
@@Premium_ZoomerTrader #doubt
@@Premium_ZoomerTrader Or more secular dictators like Saddam was, which lets remember, we made alliance with at one point.
Talks from his eyelids...no teleprompter, no notes. amazing
Google shades to feed him the words...
And never trips up, or stubs his foot, or drops his camera...
@oldcynic6964 you consider everyone else retarded?
while walking in high altitude, so he's cross training a mental performance skill set with a physical exercise practice
@@integralmark he's simply being a typical human contrary to some degenerates
Peter, you are amazing in your ability to hold so much factual data in your "working memory" and then process it into accurate, well-reasoned analysis. Fortunately for us mere followers of your work, your verbal descriptions and summaries pour out of your head like coins paying off a slot machine jackpot. Many people can talk but have no analytical ability, while others are adept at analysis but couldn’t clearly explain how to light a match. Your ability to analyze and communicate the results in an approachable manner is what sets you in a class by yourself. My compliments.
Yes, Yes, Yes
Dude, you have to be in seriously good physical condition to walk at that altitude and talk (cohortantly) for 16 minutes. Props to you.
Lately, I’ve been reading up on Ottoman history. Syria wouldn’t have existed without the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after WWI. It’s been a thorn in Turkey’s side ever since. I think the future will look pretty grim for an independent Syria. The Turks want rid of the Kurds, whether right or wrong, also. The Turks certainly have no love for the Iranians either and Syria is a good strategy to keep them at bay. I think we’ll see an even more active role for Turkey in the area.
What do you mean by "active role"? Do you think Turkey will simply annex Syria?
"The Turks want rid of the Kurds, whether right or wrong"
how can "removing" an ethnic group ever be right, please explain that to me
I highly recommend the videos on turkey made by Kraut
@@matm4413 I’m saying that because if the issue were simple no one would argue. Turkey hates the Kurds. The Kurds are a US ally. Turkey will want to rid themselves of the Kurdish resistance. The US won’t, but will probably waffle and stumble. The Iranians aren’t fond of the Kurds. Turkey and the US will use them as pawns there. My statement is an acknowledgement that, no matter my opinion on the Kurds, and I have tremendous respect and admiration for them, there certainly are those who have a very different opinion. Just ask the Kurds. They are going to be a centerpiece of history in this region for many more years to come, just as they always have. It’s not going to be a peaceable narrative, either.
@@asdasdasddgdgdfgdg They have occupied parts of it recently already. I’m no expert, but given the situation with Russian troops in the region, Kurdish rebels, a failed state on their border, their own nationalist pride, especially concerning their history with Syria… sure wouldn’t surprise me!
I think you've confirmed what I've thought for years is that being in the Middle East is a no-win situation.
No chit, Sherlock. Like nobody knew that bk when everyone said they've been fighting in the middle east for thousands of yrs against 1 another & larger empires...(the early 1980s for those historically challenged)
& you will change nothing by going to war there either?? That was the early '80s, after Carters team botched the 52 American Hostage rescue. Took Reagan getting elected (a Republican) to get them released w/o a shot.
Think about that, PZ..??
How insightful now, 50+ yrs later to think its genius to know the middle east cannot be *_Won_*
# 🤡 *_ShowInDC_*
And just leaving is a no-win situation. This is the dictionary definition of dilemma. A problem with two solutions (stay or leave), neither of which is good. Yes, it’s more complex than that, with a lot of moving parts, but the push and pull is between less engagement or more engagement.
Long term, the U.S. wants to ease out, and has been easing out, getting our regional partners to take more responsibility and to start cooperating with each other in a meaningful way. The recent Iranian proxy attacks tells me that Iran doesn’t want the U.S. to leave. And that is a clue that Iran is a proxy for someone else.
@@MarcosElMalo2 we don't need to steal oil any longer (except in Syria, clearly 😆) so it is a Win Win situation to leave, & stop allowing Military Service Men & Women to be killed, so we have a reason to retaliate against Iran, by Firing Missiles into Iraq & Syria. Cuz that is intellectual brilliance that only this administration could get behind.
Well, & this channel, as a Cloaked Neocon mouthpiece, bragging about the wisdom in regards to the likes of Jake Sullivan. I assume Victoria Nuland's brilliance just goes unspoken most of the time.
Anyone who cannot admit this a is purely entertainment and comedy channel to get the Communist & Chief re-elected, should listen to Colonel Douglas MacGregor. The man PZ will not 1 on 1 debate regarding all the US policies that PZ stands behind & supports. While MacGregor is shredding everything on this channel *_WITH FACTS* .
@@MarcosElMalo2 Leave them and their camels to it. There is no longer a dependency on their oil. If Europe and Asia want to defend their canal connection, OK. Or ask the Turks back. They seemed to know how to handle the situation.
@@MarcosElMalo2 Wait what?! You started out well enough but every expert i have listened to has claimed that Iran is trying to actually push the US OUT of the ME through its proxies. Sure - for the short term it actually pulled the US IN - especially due to the Houthi attacks on International shipping. But the strategy of Iran I think is to A) Turn Israel into a pariah State among Arab and Muslim nations (and to some extent in other countries) so Israel and Saudi Arabia won't be able to sign a normalization treaty and B) Get the US out of the ME - once the Gaza war is over and the Houthis can claim they no longer need to support their Palestinian brothers and sisters. Then Iran becomes a regional power and nukes will seal that deal.
I like structural explanations. You can apply them anywhere in the world and it will explain the political situation. For example, all these things can be said about Afghanistan too just on a smaller scale.
Peter never ceases to impress - especially how you got such great sound from your microphone while walking at pace in the woods!
That's because you're American
@@prsimoibn2710 dude that's not a proper way to address them. It would be more appropriate to write 'MURICAN' or 'Yank'.
You obviously do not travel the world and talk to the average people on the street... Zeihan is incredibly out of touch with current realities
@@torahislifeokay, I’ll bite, how is Peter “out of touch with current realities”?
@@torahislife He’s right about China’s population collapse and collapsing economy. The One Child Policy from 1979- 2015 makes it a mathematical certainty. Shutting eyes won’t make it not happen.
The Middle East - where the kings of the west clash with the kings of the east (and north). A power vacuum begging to be filled from the outside. Gives a whole new/old meaning to the Euphrates drying up. Good overview. Thanks.
Long term, the situation in the Middle East is by no means static. Oil and groundwater are gradually running out, at the same time as rainfall becomes ever more scarce. Modern drilling technologies can eke out a few more years, but as time goes by it'll become increasingly difficult to generate the foreign exchange required to import enough food or fertilizer to feed populations in places like Egypt and Iran.
Not to mention Saudi Arabia.
massive migration for Europe and America.
@@maxtenYes, and this is not so secretly keeping Western governments up at night. Plus, with climate change, all countries will face internal migration issues when certain areas are no longer livable on a practical level.
This spells mass migrations to me down the road
Peter brings the cheer and laughter again. LOL, Thanks, Peter.
U.S. interests in the Middle East are primarily to support world oil supplies and global trade. As the U.S. reshores supply chains to North America and a few allies, the U.S. support for world oil supplies and global trade goes from "need" to "nice to have" to "don't care".
I'm betting we're one Administration, maybe two, from minimizing U.S. presence in the Middle East and letting the locals fight it out to their own solutions.
Thank you for always interesting information and analysis.
I learn so much watching these videos. I greatly appreciate and look forward to them every morning