This Secret Baseball Card Tool Will Give You A Huge Advantage!
Вставка
- Опубліковано 27 жов 2022
- Recently I have stumbled across a new chart on Fangraphs called "War Graphs" On this graph you can map and track every player ever compared to any other player. This is great for identifying baseball trends and identifying which players can be on a hall of fame path before the market realizes it. Baseball card collecting is fun, but it is always more fun to identify a great player early and be able to buy their baseball cards for cheap.
Here is the link to the website.
www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx
![Lp. Последняя Реальность #107 РОДНОЙ ДОМ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/IK3QKzKUlHM/mqdefault.jpg)
Love that you put Grady in there. He is my all time favorite player and very few people know just how good he was before the injuries. Good video Scott.
Bryce Harper is the most undervalued MLB superstar
Been saying this for 3 years!
Was he last year?
Can’t give this video enough thumbs up!! Thanks a ton for sharing FanGraphs for those of us who haven’t found it yet!👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Great video, Scotty B!! It amazes me how well WAR is able to back-calculate players like Mays, etc. and it all just seems to add up so nicely. I was surprised by how high Henderson really is in terms of the overall historical ranking - he really was that talented.
was thinking the same thing like they calculated that in every player over past century! Ricky is a baseball legend
Very true about Henderson.
Scottie, thanks for the great overview. As a German non Baseball guy it is terrific to understand WAR now. Keep it up, enjoy your videos.
Getting back into the hobby with my 9 year old son after a huge break and came across your channel. Love all the info and quality of the vids. Subscribed.
Thanks Scottie!! This was the video that let me know I needed to subscribe. This was very good info. I have finally been taking the time to try to figure out WAR and this is what helped me get there. And thanks for the intro to Fangraphs too, I see that being a very useful resource.
Thanks for all your knowledge and different ways of learning and looking into future HOF’s and potential HOF’s. It’s crazy to see those players from the 50s & 60s with well over a 100 WAR! And then to compare the players I grew up watching Jeter, Griffey, Boggs Mattingly and looking at their WAR and they were Great Players but the names from the 50s & 60s were AMAZING PLAYERS!!! Which I already knew but from a statistic standpoint it’s Crazy!!
Once again I absolutely love your content. Thanks for doing what you do truly appreciate it
Appreciate the content and analysis that you put out. It’s extremely helpful when making buying decisions!
Also side note. I agree with a lot of your picks. Betts especially! One guy you never talk about though is Machado! Also one guy I just don't agree on is Soto, think he's overrated sorry.
Love the data analysis. Thanks for the content!
Appreciate it Scottie B!! Again impressed with the knowledge and research - -
Loved this video. Seems like a great tool, and I can't wait to play around with it. Thanks.
Also have to factor in the card after the players stats. The 89 UD Griffey Jr although graded a ton, and will continue to be graded, it only has about a 5% gem rate. So that is also a HUGE factor when it comes to collectables. Also despite what the card market prices a card at, it should be known that chrome cards do have more value but are way easier to gem based on card stock. The black border paper Trout Bowman RC IMO is a way better card just based on black border while most of the other white border cards gem easier. Just a couple examples on 2 iconic players. Good stuff Scottie! ✌🏽⚾️🇺🇲
Love your content !!! Keep it up. This week (11/22) was absolute FIRE !!!!
Card talk and coffee - best way to start my morning ✌⚾☕🤟
Well delivered Mr B. As always.
Thanks for this in-depth info. This is good stuff.
Some of the best baseball and baseball cards content on UA-cam.
Thank you John. I appreciate it 😃
@@scottiebcards2354 Hey brother, I was wondering if you would give me the opportunity to send you some info on a custom baseball product I sell so you determine if you'd be interested in opening one on your channel.
@@scottiebcards2354 I'm disappointed in my Topps update jumbo I broke today, the off center in my box was off the charts
Pujols shot up so fast then tailed off in his 30s, Albert Pujols 1st 10 seasons were very historic and GOAT like
Great info Scott. Thanks
Great content as always!
Scottie, your a freaking genius!!
Hehehehe, for real though , another good video!!!
Yes, absolutely amazing data points. My question to you in regards to value, what about the "eye test", and where do players like Shohei apply? He technically had a 10.2 WAR season on a 6.4 pitching and 3.8 hitting age 27 season, putting him cumulatively over 20 WAR. What does he need to do to head to the Hall? Does 8 more seasons of 4-5 WAR do it? Does he need to get 60 WAR?
He probably won’t require as high WAR because he’s a hr hitting pitcher. It’s unique.
Awesome video.
Who is the best player to use that would be the "Average" or the "Baseline". I don't want to compare people to Trout or Ruth. I want to see how a player is doing against the average. Any thoughts?
Mario Mendoza maybe?
I do wonder even if a player has good war wouldn't the market still affect his prices.
so glad ya mentioned Mike Trout's post season naysayers!! Ted Williams, griffey, Carl Yastremski, Tony Gwynn you said I can go all day !!! 😂😂💪
There was a post season for Yaz though. '67 world series against St. Louis. and the '75 world series against Cincinnati. He played 17 post season games. Tony Gwynn was in the post season in 1984, 1996, and 1998. He had a .306 BA, 1 HR, scored 11 runs in 27 post season games. Griffey batted .290 in 18 post season games. Ted Williams got to the post season in 1946. 7 world series games. He batted only .200. So Yaz, Gwynn, and Griffey all had decent postseason careers. Ted not so much and Trout's BA in the post season is under .100. Mike needs to step it up if he gets back to the post season.
@@mrmustangman1964 impressive! but reguardless an outfielder like trout cant take a team to the world series, Angels have a terrible gm, its not trouts fault he cant put a well rounded team togethor that can get to the post season
Really interesting stuff!
I appreciate it. Thanks for watching it!
Awesome analysis
You're a beast, bro, thank you.
Thanks, great analysis, you rock
Nice video Scott
Thanks Phil, I appreciate it!
Amazing video
This is sweet, thanks!
What's your view on Madrigal?
Great video
Thanks Timothy!
One key is the "replacement" piece of WAR. Replacement level players today are far better than those of even a few decades ago. Comping players from different eras will need that factored in.
Very, cool thanks for sharing
Quality content
Thank you Marcus. I appreciate you watching!
splendid
Thank you Simon!
thank you
Of course. Thanks for watching Ken!
I'm sorry I don't buy into WAR. It's a variable stat and not a constant. Clutch stats like BA with runners in scoring position, OBP, and SLG should matter more. Analytics has also cost teams when it matters most in the postseason. See LA Dodgers as prime example
Like I said, war isn’t the only important stat that you should pay attention to, but it does give historical overall value which other stats generally tend to lack. I think war in tandem with other stats is how you find the best players.
@@scottiebcards2354 Yes but they're using it to decide who does and who doesn't make the HOF. That I have an issue with
I agree with you 100% Mr. Chris C. I think WAR is "Voodoo Economics".
do HOF voters take playoffs and career moments into account?
Thanks for picking on my guy Brock … pick a Cub or Yankee next time lol
Haha Lou Brock is great. Next time I will pick on Derek Jeter.
It's crazy to think that Willie Mays missed 250+ games due to him being drafted into the army to possibly fight in a real war.
some players transcend war imo I think Harper is like that especially if he wins a World Series
people argue that Chase Utley has a falsley inflated WAR.. 64 i think..similiar to Miggy, Beltre , Cano.. Utley was a great defenseman n baserunner accruing him a lot of War in a short time he basically only had 7-8 yrs of great baseball, im a little biased but his War is justified and should be a Hofamer
I value WAR a lot. But the Lou Brock example was just one of many instances that makes me scratch my head. With only 45.3 accumulated WAR, does this suggest that a supposedly "inferior" player like Willie Wilson (46.2 WAR) or Mark Grace (46.4 WAR) were actually better and thus more Hall worthy than Lou Brock? As much as I still value WAR, it's prone to open up a can of worms when it comes to evaluating Hall worthiness. Someone like Rick Reuschel (69.5 WAR) might as well be in the Hall of Fame according to WAR since he is above the Hall average for pitchers.
I mean this with all due respect to Brock, but he has a 109 OPS+ for his career. That is tied for 772 with 41 other players. This list includes players like Howie Kendrick, Andrew Benintendi, and Nick Markakis. He is not a great offensive player, but rather a slightly above average offensive player (and a below average hall of famer offensively). He actually comps very well to Nick Markakis. Markakis has 2388 hits through 8,302 ABs .29 hits per ab. Lou Brock had 3023 hits through 10,332 ABs which is .29 hits per ab. His 3,000 hits was accomplished due to longevity. If Markakis played another few years he would have had really similar hit numbers.
On top of only being a slightly above average offensive player he is a bad defender. out of the qualified 500 Left fielders he is 490 in defensive war with -16.9 d war. If he could have been league average or slightly above average it would have helped his war total drastically.
Where Brock made his bread and butter was on the base paths. He is second all time in stolen bases. He deserves to be in the hall of fame but WAR is accurate on who he was as a player.
The reason Rickey Henderson has 111 war is due to him being a fantastic offensive player (127 OPS+) and a league average defender (-2.3 dwar) on top of his amazing base running skills.
I think the WAR totals for Brock are accurate.
Honestly Mark Grace didn't make it since he didn't do anything amazing like Brock did with SB, hits totals, and longevity. As for Rick Reuschel, if he pitched today or was on the ballot today I actually would put money on him getting into the HOF relatively easily. 69 war 214 wins, 3.37 era and 114 ERA+. The hall of fame standards for pitchers have changed drastically since when he hit the ballot.
In other words, this is why WAR has helped value players as certain stats in a vacuum can not tell the whole story. I totally see your points and scepticism, and that is why you should take war as an advanced high level tool. Diving into multiple stats is important when evaluating a player.
Sorry for the long response, but just wanted to give my real thoughts!
I appreciate you always watching the channel which is why I thought sharing all of my thoughts would be fun. Thanks again for watching and thanks for the fun conversation!
Scottie,you need to do a vid on why Trout update rookie PSA 10 is 10x the price of Bryce update PSA 10 rookie considering their stats are very comparable
Did you watch the video? His trajectory is way ahead of Harper for his entire career
@@wutango36o still doesn’t justify Trout rc selling for 10x of Bryce. You want to say double or Triple but not 10 times
@@Scotto6977 thats not how it works. If Trout is 10x more in demand by collectors, he'll be worth 10x more. Harper was an unpopular player for years in comparison to Trout. Same sthing with Arod and Jeter (before steroids) everyone loves Jeter and hated Arod and prices reflect that. Not just the stats on paper. Player needs to be likeable for there to be demand.
@@Scotto6977 card values are driven by demand and Trout is sought after for not only his stats but his image, Harper has less demand for his cards because so many people hate him with a passion
Not Grady ):
What is the equivalent of WAR in football?
I’m not big on WAR Brock was clearly a HOF and according to WAR Mookie Betts is already ahead of him and statistically he needs to double his numbers to get in the hall. It’s just goofy.
The difference between Brock and Betts is that Mookie is a better offensive player by almost every metric and Mookie is one of the best defensive right fielders ever. Brock was the type of player who hit singles and didn’t slug or walk much. Mookie gets on base and can drive into the gap with doubles and home runs. On top of that Brock was a horrible defensive outfielder which hurt his overall value. Mookie is next to Clemente in defensive stats. I agree Brock was a hall of famer, but this proves my point that he isn’t close to the higher end.
I agree WAR is overrated. Baseball reference has Josh Donaldson with a higher WAR than Anthony Rizzo this year. Donaldson was awful. I watched almost every Yankee game. Also Rizzo was outstanding defensively at 1B and they gave him a -1.1 dWAR. So who are these "replacement level" players that are that much better than him defensively? The eye test always wins for me. Also it doesnt factor in clutch play. If player A hits a homerun with his team already up 8 runs and player B hits a homerun with the game tied in the 7th inning which is more valuable? Obviously player B is more valuable.
Like to see Judge in there compared to Trout
War is just cool kid’s math…Batting avg.,HR’s,Hit’s,SB’s and rings are the measuring stick
Genuine question... Is Lou Brock better than Griffey? He leads him in Batting Average, Hits, SB, and WS wins. Out of those stats Griffey only has more HR.
Maybe not Brock but that’s a low end comparison maybe I’m being stubborn….I’m old school😂…you have an excellent argument with Griffey…I think you have to take a step back and look at the painting as a whole…The 300 lifetime,500 HRs and 3000 hits Will almost always put you in the Hall…I couldn’t tell you Mantle’s WAR without looking…and it’s a more accurate gauge in my opinion…by the way ,I check out every one of your baseball posts
I do believe Ichiro was a much better ball player than Griffey…again…would have to check his WAR
this question is for EVERYONE in the comment including Scottie B Cards whos your FAVORITE ALL TIME TOP 3 MLB PLAYERS ??? ( mines) 1. Mickey Mantle 2. Ken Griffey Jr. 3. Ichiro Suzuki
The hobby is weird sometimes. Bryce Harper came in with insane hype. Tons of people lost money in the early days of Harper because Trout stole all the hype Harper had the year before. Harper has turned out to be one of the best players anyway, yet his prices aren’t nearly what you’d expect from a player of his caliber. Part due to hobby scorn. Part due to his image and what the average fan thinks of him.
To really be a gigantic star you have to have the skill and the personality. Like a Griffey or Jeter.
“This super hard baseball tip will help you be me” just be bald and wear a hat to hide it
Harold Baines WAR is around 38. It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of very good. In my opinion he is not a HOF'er. Not a good defender and a DH most of his career.
Juan soto will probably break this algorithm because his war will always be very high because of walks. He can have a 7 war on average with a 230 batting average.🤣🤣
Soto has one of the best eyes in baseball but his defense is really bad that'll hurt his war a lot
I agree. But look at this season. He had a 5.6 war with a 242 average. His defense was average to slightly below. He had hardly any RBI’s but walked a league leading 145 times. In the area of advanced stats he an anomaly. What if he actually hits and still walks 140 times? Multiple 9 war seasons on the horizon?
@@bobd6617 so you think walks are a loophole in war? Getting a base for a good eye should be noted especially with todays elite pitching, its just as good as a base hit as far as outcome, also a great hitter like Soto is gonna get more pitches outside the zone so his stats shouldnt suffer because pitchers are afraid to throw him a strike, having a great plate discipline is invaluable in the MLB Soto is a dangerous at the plate being a phillies fan just experienced that first hand
Realmuto could be tracking for the HOF.
If a player gets elected to the HOF by the veteran’s committee or you’ve been on the ballot for 10 years and get voted in, you are not a true HOFamer in my opinion.
That is a pretty hot take. I tend to disagree since writers are the ones voting and writers are notorious for flip flopping and bias based off of if a player was nice to them during their careers. If players and managers were the ones voting I would agree, but old man writers hold this power for some reason so I think the veteran's committee and the rule of 10 are important.
I don’t like this at all. There’s a chance down the line the veterans committee votes bonds Clemens and some of those other guys in. Players that should have been 1st ballot HOFer’s. The writers association is terrible.
i like that contraversial statement Leapheap but i disagree, you might have a point in some circumstances but it really depends on the player for me the hof committees bullshit doesnt negate a players accomplishments..
You can easily see the roids path as well
your kid statement isn't backed up by facts, who you accusing of steroids? that's what I thought
All these videos to justify your love for Betts.😂😂😂
Haha I can justify my love for Betts with MANY other accolades.
Career:
-2 world series
-MVP
-2 MVP runner ups
-5 gold gloves
-4 SS
-136 career WRC+
-134 OPS+
-Batting title
This year:
-35 HR (5th)
-117 Runs (First)
-.533 SLG % (Second)
-.873 OPS (6th)
- GG Finalist
- SS Finalist.
I could put in MANY more 😉.
Let me see this on my baseball card then I'll start thinking about it but until then please get off of this war stuff
Hey Douglas, WAR is on baseball cards. It is on the back of all Topps Flagship and Topps Chrome sets.
Wait, 10% of all baseball players have 500 HR? And there are only 28 players to do it? That doesn't make sense.
10% of inducted hall of famers. There are players like Bonds, Sosa, Palmero, ect who have over 500 HR but are not in the hall of fame. There are only 268 players who have been inducted into the hall of fame.