The Highs and Lows of Card Counting
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- Опубліковано 4 сер 2020
- Though learning to count cards can be a difficult endeavor, many who do master the craft find that learning to deal with the losses and backoffs can be surprisingly brutal. So what do you do when you are having trouble with the swings of professional blackjack? In this video, Colin shares his thoughts, advice, and some helpful tips.
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The bankroll swings and losses can be absolutely incredible when you count cards. It is very very tough at times.
This is the most important video
Yes, great video, love cj
The three characteristics for success are intelligence, hard work, and a high tolerance to negative emotions. It’s not clear which of these three characteristics is the most important. But, a high tolerance to negative emotions is a good characteristic to have. Colin is claiming it may be the most important skill for a card counter. Colin may be right!
This is certainly something I can relate too. A few weeks ago I was at a casino up 1.4k and then proceeded to lose ~50 hands in a row and I was steaming. They busted me and haven't played any BJ at the casino since. I needed the break and working on my emotions is something I need. Thank you for this video Colin.
I disagree with him on this one personally, I find it goes in streaks, and if a dealer is hot and consistently making their hands and not busting, I walk away. 4 losses back to back is my max...
Also, if you sit down after watching for a bit and seeing the dealer bust a few times, that seems to help, imo to make sure they aren't in a hot streak
I do have to admit, that the thing that I get "concerned" about is when dealers start pulling off multi-card 20s and 21s. It's like "OMG! Here we go!" BUT, I put the money down as I should.
And then in the next hand they deal six or seven 10s to the other players and ruin your count.
It always low key hurts a little bit to see other people benefiting off a high count while you get shitty cards with large bets out.. but it’s a little bit of a consolation to me to see other players getting good cards, it makes me more confident that I’m keeping an accurate count
ccc ccc great point
I needed this video today, I had one of my worst nights ever last night! 12 hours of non stop busting, 1,2, or 3 wins per shoe, dealer make 5 and 6 card 21, wining maybe 15% of my max bets! Shook the confidence but got to understand those days happen and to continue to place the proper bet!
I've just started to play again at a somewhat local casino. I don't have a large bankroll (about 5k) but I'm playing how I'm supposed to. I've lost 3 visits in a row (not that big of a deal), but I've been betting consistently. If the TC is a 5, I'm betting 2 hands of $40-50, even if I just lost a 17,18,19 against a dealer's 20 or the dealer somehow pulls off a 21. This game is about the long run. If you get in enough hours, you're going to come out on top. This game is a marathon, not a short sprint. You can't expect to win $200-300 consistently. There's going to be huge swings of variance, in the hundreds or thousands of dollars. You just gotta stick it out, trust the math and statistics (I'm a math major myself) and don't look back.
So in other words.. this is still gambling regardless of whether you are counting cards or not.
XxPeruvianGamersxX how’d you come tot hat conclusion, you ultimately have the edge when you’re counting. Yes it’s gambling but with a LOT of strategy.
I love reading these fake comments. Love the effort you put into making fake accounts and fake comments, Colin ❤️
@@XxPeruvianGamersxX not if your risk is below 1% no. The math will always work itself out in the long run.
@@XxPeruvianGamersxX if you play regular blackjack without counting you have a 100% risk of ruin.
Thank you for this video Colin. I needed it.
You don't need to be smart to count cards. Literally all you need is discipline. That's probably a less common qaulity than being smart.
Smart is such a vague word.
Intellectually smart: no
Smart enough to control yourself and your emotions: yes
So many people want to be card counters (in theory) but not in practice. Colin doesn't go into this, but the gap between the EV that someone believes they have versus what they actually have is sometimes large. An amazing amount of people calculate their EV based on perfect decision making and then making multiple mistakes every single shoe. Variance can be brutal, but it will be worse if your EV is worse than you believe it to be.
great video colin, per usual
Thanks for the tips..
Sometimes it takes the same discipline to leave the table after winning a bunch of hands in a row as it is for staying at the table after losing a bunch of hands.
Because usually when you and/or other players have had a couple blackjacks, double down wins, or 20's that of course make the count go down the sewer.
I believe that Frank Scoblete wrote an article about the highs and lows of card counting. He also talked about the losses in that particular session he had.
Finally it's been a while
Great video Colin. The swings will make you a better player. ♠️ If your new to card counting start small. Start with the red chips
Then move up to green. Then black and the money will come $$$.
I remember when the first time i counted cards, EV shot up to +6 so i placed $150 bet and boom, dealer gets a blackjack, shit sucks
Fantastic content as per usual!
Related to this video, I'd noticed that on some other videos about EV you quote a statistic that advantage players win about 55% of the time. I was wondering how thats the case, since even with wonging out for negative counts, i doubt our advantage regularly goes as high as that (wouldn't a 5% advantage indicate a true +11 count)? Is this figure due to playing deviations?
Years ago, I watched a guy play a game of Blackjack in an Bay Area casino and it was an intense scene. He cashed out at $300 profit.
Colin! I've been watching for about 3 months and practicing PBS both at home and in the casino. Do you guys do in person classes? I would love to have a mentor. No one in my circle cares for it and I'm confident I have what it take.
I need help to find a basic strategy for The best blackjack game/table. Can someone help me?
Colin and Ben, I first started learning how to count cards about 10 years ago now! I can’t remember if you guys used to have a paid monthly membership, but I do remember that I really enjoyed your videos. I never did become an expert counter, probably because I didn’t put in enough work. Anyway, what are your thoughts on playing Spanish 21 and counting? Thanks, I hope all is well.
That’s with 10s removed right? So say it’s a 6 deck game you’d start the count with a fresh shoe at -24. Idk how many decks are usually used by just number of decks x4 is how negative your count starts at. Maybe if you backcount it’ll eventually get good but it’s kinda doubtful.
Nicholas bento Yes, it’s played with 6 decks. Thanks for the feedback
Spanish 21 has a larger house edge, you can count with certain game rules but in general it is not beatable
Hi the community!
Just a question unrelated to the video. Let's imagine that you have an ace and a 2 and the dealer has a seven if you follow the basic strategy you are supposed to hit so you hit and you hit a 4. Now the question is do you regard your hand as a soft 17 so according to the basic strategy you hit again or you regard your hand as a hard 17 and finally you stand?
Actually, the question is: Does the number of cards constituting your hand influence the basic strategy?
You would regard the hand as a soft 17 and hit again. There are times when you deviate from basic strategy on the soft totals if the strategy on the play calls to double. But you can't double with a 3 card total. Doubling is only permitted on your original 2 card hand. So a good basic strategy chart will usually indicate to double otherwise hit (D/H) or to double otherwise stand(D/S). Most charts just advise when to D/S because it is a given that you hit if you can't double. Soft 18 is the main hand that will confuse people.
when you first started, how much money did you take for you first time? What did start with and how much should I start with?
I believe in his book (which I bought and highly recommend) Colin said he started with $2,000, but recommends you start with more than he did.
Texas Rebel oh ok thanks
If you start with $2000, you can generate about $16/hr EV with a 1-12 bet spread but your risk of ruin (losing everything) is 40-50% which is EXTREMELY high. If you can manage to get together $5000, you can generate the same amount of EV with the same bet spread and bring you risk of ruin down to about 10%, which isn't shabby but once you get into the tens of thousands of dollars, you want your ROR to be under 5%.
Colin.. I have a question about ur online apprenticeship. Is there any other way of contacting you other than comment here?
done.
Lmaoo holy shit. I was hoping you guys had a video on this and then you guys had it! I just lost last night on every big bet... how do you guys handle that
John you keep your max bets a small percentage of your total bankroll ... it’s hard at first, but you need to keep your risk of ruin low, but it’s hard to when you’re only starting out with $2-3k, you have to get lucky
I literally played perfect the whole shoe and didn’t win a single hand and lost 4k. I was heated
It really sucks. I was counting the other day and the RC got to +18.
I spread from $25 to around $150 a hand and lost five or six in a row. Just frustrating.
Well what was your true count at?
@@ayedboy4604 +6
@@vaddix9980 I use the KO count system and mine was at a +5 and lost every single hand as well and pushed a few.
@@ayedboy4604 shity variance. It's real BS when you count and you know you have the advantage but you still lose.
a true 6 is generally only a few % points of edge depending on the game's rules, potentially lower. You should be thinking "if I do this 100 times at +6, I'm going to walk away with ~56 big bets or so"... and every now and then your 100 sample will be too small, and you have to think "every 1000 hands, ~560 or so", but remember that a point of true count does not equate to player advantage, it's important to understand the reasoning behind the kelly criterion and how significant each additional count is (and why advanced counting that values A vs. generic T, and also 9, 7, 5, 2 differently than normal hi/lo"
Keep the faith and best of luck out there
Do you have a video on cvcx? I just bought it and its kind of hard to use. You should buy it and make it easier to use.
.....but hold on Colin. What if you lose 21 hands in a row?
Well, actually, I feel at some point we should really look at it statistically. Like, how many times can you lose and still say that's just by chance and the dealer is not doing some funny stuff.
@@DerMichael you would be absolutely amazed at how many hands in a row you can lose. 20 hands in a row doesn't surprise me anymore. I've seen almost 40 in a row, then had it happen again the next day. Blackjack can be downright disturbing at times.
Collin I want to know if instead of One unit for every true count positive why not bat 2 units. What would be the result expected.
You need to use betting software to make those decisions. We have some really helpful betting software in our membership. Or cvcx
Hi Colin, I live in Portugal and I have been practicing card couting for a few months and I'm thinking of getting a membership and putting a bankroll together. If I would like to start playing in the future, would I have to plan trips to the U.S or is it possible to make a good amount of money just in Europe? I think that unfortunatly every casino in Portugal has CSMs but I'm not sure about other Europe countries's casinos. I would really apreaciate any responde or maybe even a video about this topic since I've been seeing a lot of similar questions on youtube and forums. BTW your videos and podcasts have been helping me a lot in my training. Thanks!!
@@neatstuff1988 I obviously meant continuous card shuffling machines.
@@neatstuff1988 yes, I know that. It has been proven though that you can make money with continuous card shuffle machines, but it is not worth it because it is like a few cents per hour. Collins made a video about it.
Went to a casino with a buddy of mine the other day and say they had a pretty good table: single deck, BJ pays 2:3, stand on soft 17, etc. only problem was that the cards are dealt face down. This obviously isn’t a problem if you’re at the table alone, but the casino was kinda small so I knew heat would be inevitable. My question (for anyone really) is, would it be possible to still count cards effectively or not (considering the cards are face down until someone busts or the dealer plays)?
I've counted similar double deck games where it is dealt face down, even with multiple players at the table. The main thing is you just have to be quick since usually you don't get to see the cards for long. Practice your counting speed because that sounds like a pretty good single deck game as long as the penetration is decent
Brandon okay, thanks man. Much appreciated.
What’s the name of the book your friends wrote?
Yeah, exactly! I searched Google and nothing related came up.
When your true count is positive, ks it the only first hand that its good or it could be the whole table?
the true count applies itself in many ways - each of them individually. The running count could increase your chance of getting a 20/21, but it does so exactly the same for the dealer. You need to always use the latest count to rationalize a decision, particularly for deviations (once you've mastered basic strategy), for example it's the count *when it's your action* when you decide 16 v T to hit or stand. Likewise for doubling 10 v T, taking insurance etc. - always measure everything.
Colin Jones and John Colins...interesting
This is fantastic stuff yet again. Kudos, Colin.
Honestly, if I should lose more than 10 hands in a row, I would at least briefly consider if there MIGHT be cheating going on, simply because it's so rare. This would be highly unlikely in a Las Vegas strip casino, but if you're playing in one of the seedier and less trustworthy casinos in the world, I would consider at least taking a break and watching what's going on. Wouldn't you?
Especially double deck. Happend a few times.
we only have csm at our casinos :( does it make my hours of practicing worthless?
Yes
Loneliness is also huge. You cannot admit to anyone around the casino what you are doing, You cannot associate with anyone doing the same thing in the casino especially if they are likely to be booted out for counting.
Face it, you start winning, they start looking at you. I got a double-decker, very deep pen, high negative counts ill hit 12,13, 14 against anything but a 6
Anyone else do the counting drill with a deck of cards and you remove 1 card. I do this alot, I recently caught myself trying to shuffle track while doing this and had to back myself off, was a sad day.
😂😂😂
I find this topic fascinating, but I'll never be a card counter. Maybe it's my age, but I know I don't have the mental discipline or quickness to keep an accurate count. I need to stare at something for a few seconds to imprint it on my brain, and cards appear and disappear too quickly for me to keep up. Even more of a problem for me is ( as I understand it ) the card counter gains the advantage when a positive "true count" develops. Then he increases his bets to take advantage of improved odds. BUT. If I'm not mistaken, a TC of +1 evens the odds. You are now 50/50 with the house. That's not an "advantage". I understand that a TC of +2 gives you a .05% advantage. That's pretty slim to be laying down big bets. Also, how often does a positive TC actually appear? It can't be more than 1 out of every 3 shuffles, and that has to be near the end of the shoe. Even if it gets to 2, that's pretty slender. Is there an alternate to playing basic strategy if the TC goes low? Can an advantage layer utilize a minus TC? That has to happen as often as a plus TC.
There are a few deviations at negative TC, but much of the time you should wong out and back count.
Do you still count cards in casinos
yes sir
I've read a comment under one of your videos which said that in most casinos after every hand cards are shuffled by a machine so you can't count cards. Is that true?
I don't card count. I use my energy to make sure I always win.
I found that loosing on a positive count, or wining on a negative one, got me out
of counting for good. BIAS is the way to go!!! Cheers DC.
Is it possible to card count in an online live casino, where the dealer randomly gets a "take a new shoe" card and so the dealer will then take a whole new shoe?
So Collin I have a question I have $10,000 to start with how much should each unit be if that is my starting Bankrol? Thank you in advance
He has a bankroll calculator on his site but watch his video on bankroll management. It’s a little more complicated than you think . Or you could sign up on his site . I think it’s worth it
If I lose 4 hands in a row I walk away
There are 20 high cards in a deck,so why not just count the high cards as thay are drawn,instead of hi lo?
Because its ratio of high cards to low cards you're concerned about. And that's what "the count" must reflect.
I can't believe these pros have not found what I have. I win every time I play. I have studied this game to every card dealt and have unlocked amazing knowledge. If I shared it, the casino's would never make another dollar at bj.
Martingale doesn't work bra lol.
Nope! Not Martingale! Something completely different.
What is it then tell us
@@Tyronebigggums I walk up to the table, smile and waive and walk out the doors with my money 🤣😂😎 that's a win win!
you're contradicting your statements by saying you shouldn't deviate then have deviations.... lol
there's playing deviations depending on what the true count is, ie you split 10s against a 6 at a +4 TC
As I am watching this 666 views 😳
How to stop losing
Step 1: Get a job
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit
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