Chaotic Saturday Coming | Full Week 6 Predictions | New JP Poll | Added Best Bets
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- Опубліковано 1 жов 2024
- Josh Pate’s College Football Show Ep 561 features Josh Pate looking ahead to what could be a volcanic Saturday with potential upsets looming. How will this shakeup conference and College Football Playoff pictures? Tennessee vs Arkansas and Ole Miss vs South Carolina will see ranked teams going on the road in dangerous conditions. What happens with Auburn vs UGA? Will Kirby Smart get back on track or will Hugh Freeze secure the upset of the season? Josh also looks at Iowa vs Ohio State and Michigan vs Washington. How does this week’s AP Poll stack up against the JP Poll? Tuesday night also means early best bets aboard the Ramen Noodle Express. Be sure to let us know what you think, SUBSCRIBE to the channel, and CLICK THE BELL for notifications as we bring you multiple live shows per week!
TIMESTAMPS
(2:00) College Football upsets looming?
(12:33) Game Preview: Missouri vs Texas A&M
(20:41) Game Preview: Iowa vs Ohio State
(26:22) Game Preview: Tennessee vs Arkansas
(36:09) Unveiling the Week Six JP Poll
(42:24) Game Preview: Ole Miss vs South Carolina
(48:00) Week Six Ramen Noodle Express: Best Bets
(52:13) Game Preview: Michigan vs Washington
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I'm holding you to that comment about the ISU marathon. Can't wait for an all-ISU show to prep for our playoff game vs Texas. Call it my bold prediction
Imagine spending a fall Saturday not watching college football. My wife is very understanding and knows pumpkin patch day needs to be a Wednesday every year.
W wife !
You can get UA-cam tv and walk around ervhwhere on Saturdays with games in multi view.
finding a wife that likes motorsport and college football will be tough that’s for sure lol
Columbus Day in my house
Pumpkin patch day? The pumpkin patches are open every day of the week tho 🤣 🍻
Always loved the JP Poll but I think this past weekend shows us where the model can be flawed. Our eyes watching the Bama Georgia game clearly showed one team dominate the traditional game script and be more athletic and physical. I would imagine that the data put into the model (among other things the score - a seven point difference) does not capture this and that is clearly reflected. The second half of that game was not a feasible style of football in most games. Neither Josh, nor most of the oddsmakers if he asked, would favor Georgia on a neutral field if they played tomorrow. The model just can’t see it in the data
For what it's worth, the model predicted a close match up between Georgia and Bama, and we couldn't have had a closer of a game
All models all flawed…. JP Poll has never been super accurate
@@nickoster9241 I'm willing to bet that if Georgia dominated the first half and Bama dominated the 2nd half, people would look at this game differently.
BYU is at #10 efficiency wise according to ESPN, 5 - 0, one of the best defenses in the country, #2 in strength of record, and the offense is steadily improving. I'm amazed that the model doesn't consider them, it must be due to recruiting
Makes you wonder if this stubborn model will still hate BYU at 12-0
The Calgorithm has taken over College Football!!!
Love the show! Been watching for 2 years now. Best college football show.
Yesssss
@JoshPateCFB
I won't be attending the Mizzou vs A&M game as I am gathering supplies to take in a box truck from Houston to North Carolina next week. Some of the most recent needs include things I plan to get from Academy as my local stores have interest in helping me out. Hope to do what I can, as I have in the past with other Hurricane relief efforts.
Thank you for calling others attention to this, and I hope your shirt campaign goes exceptionally well!
You’re awesome in case you didn’t know 🙌🙌
W
Miami hasn’t been to a west coast road game since the 90s I believe. after dark hours get crazy because nobody is watching. so wouldn’t be surprised.
🫢🫳🫳🫳🫳🫳
I love watching the late night football games but damn I’m usually drunk by the time they come on so it’s hard to finish the games.
Miami played in Seattle against Washington in 2000.
@@mjabatewell close enough
Miami played in Seattle on 2000…
Can we get the power rating numbers listed also not just rank vs others? That might help people see the difference in the changes relative to previous week's better.
I understand that the JP Poll is about neutral field favorability. What I don't understand is how someone would watch what happened this past Saturday and somehow favor Georgia in a rematch. Guess the silver lining is there's more money to be made for those who choose to gamble. Regardless, major fan of the show.
@@jbura_ I would consider a rematch a toss up.
Vols fans may have BVS, but Josh Heupel and this team doesn’t!
Props for the relief effort JP
JP poll brought to you by drugs
No kidding, it's awful.
What’s up Josh, it was cool seeing you at the bama game!! I was on the fence and I was the one talking to you the whole time lol. RTR 🐘
Josh, I’ve got an issue with the model:
How is it that South Carolina remains unranked despite a 25-point margin of victory over the No. 17 team in Kentucky and a three-point loss to the No. 13 team in LSU?
I would assume the ODU game is a major drag on their metrics
@@BBQ_Jackfruit I can understand that game being factored in, which is why I wouldn’t say they should be rated say 19th or higher, but to not have them rated anywhere from 20 to 25 when they’ve made clear perceivable progress since their opener against teams the model thinks are much better than them is questionable at best…
Indiana’s opponents combined record are 9-13. Only Maryland has a winning record.
Same deal for Rutgers, and only Washington has a winning record.
If we beat Ole Miss then we'll be ranked. IDGAF about rankings right now. We aren't winning the following week and we'll have to win 1 of the next 2 for it to matter.
The model giving UK this much appreciation is lovely
We keep missing each other. I left Tuscaloosa the Tuesday before the game, and am flying out of College Station Friday morning at 5 am
Clem(p)son * stop saying it like a yankee
I tweeted @joshpate right after the Miami game calling for them to drop heavily in the JP poll. And they didn’t! They should be out of the top 10 no questions asked
I liked how Josh used the Ole Miss-Kentucky game to describe how Iowa State upset Iowa...........right, Josh. 😉
He did clarify at the end that OSU is better than Ole Miss and that Kentucky was better than Iowa.
When are we gonna get some love at West Point?
The JP poll is on some drugs as well, just not as intensely as the AP poll. Texas dropping to 4 and Oregon jumping anyone in last week's top five is nonsensical. What happened this last weekend to spur those moves? I realize all the top several teams are crazy close, but I just don't get what prompted these moves given last weekend's games. Cmon, model!
Don't be hatin' on Oregon....Go Ducks! 🦆
Vegas loves Oregon. We saw last year that Vegas is occasionally wrong because they made Washington Dawgs twice and Oregon lost to em twice. I'm starting to think this pattern will repeat this year. Models and betting markets will overrated them, but I could easily see them losing to Clemson or KState or something
You clearly don't understand how the JP poll works,it's not a ranking system
Did you not watch the show Sunday at the very least? What happened last week was Bama’s game against Georgia. And JP even commented on it. Texas didn’t do anything wrong but Bama did a lot right.
Pay attention at least a little.
It’s not that Texas dropped, it’s that other teams moved up.
Josh I will eat my words. At one point I laughed at how high your had Louisville in the Jp poll. So I am sorry for mocking the poll 🫡
Josh,
Are you going to do a Fandual/ Model reading of the election in November?
I hate to be the one to inform the model, but alabama is better
Northwesterns makeshift temporary field is getting wind straight off of lake michigan and keeps scoring at a premium. Do with that what you will.
It’s gonna happen at Willy B.
Thank you josh
How many times are we going to move the goal post against Tennessee? NC State was their test. Then Oklahoma was their test after we rolled NC State. Now that we beat Oklahoma Arkansas is our test. And I know after we beat Oklahoma they're going to be screaming bamas our test.
Yeah, any team we beat automatically sucks immediately after. It's all so tiresome.
Genuinely, I am confused what you’re concerned is? I would like to think you could at least think about the Tennessee season rationally. Tennessee at Oklahoma was the test to see if Tennessee could live up to their highly ranked position against a team that was highly ranked, but in the context of a 15 to 25 level team. That win against Oklahoma showed Tennessee had real potential as a legitimate quality team. don’t listen to any other of the media trying to hype up games. As long as Tennessee wins that’s all that matters. The only two games for Tennessee that truly matter for the rest of the regular season are the games against Bama and Georgia. Assuming every other game then those two are wins, it is vital that at least one of those two games is a win.
I love this show
Cole Cubelic must be that Alabaster resident
Fayetteville, TN. Harold's Hog Wash
Calling Jonathan Smith "Jonathan Stewart" is crazy.
I get the thinking but Alabama beating Georgia means they are ranked ahead of them
Jonathan Stewart's Spartans☠☠☠
Pate might as well make his way to Ames this weekend since the clones are the highest ranked big 12 team
As a man you owns an apple orchard we are open on Wednesdays!!!!
Hook Em. Love the show!!
Alabama should be #1 on the AP poll
The game of the year so far? Yes. The game of several years...? Agree to severely and categorically disagree
What did the model see in OSU to jump?
No power but had to watch the show
If my fellow michigan fans are actually asking that they are casuals and I'm surprised they even watch this show...... also I'm glad we are dogs. BET!!!
Piss poor would be an upgrade.
I’ve been saying for weeks Justin Frye isn’t developing our O-Line well enough to compete come playoff time.
idk if its just me but our Oline looks fat too. Urban had em in shape, and we're starting to get back to the fat and slow guys now
@@pt9373 the run blocking in particular has been subpar, and it’s getting masked by explosive runs against bad teams.
What have you been watching?? We couldn’t run on crap teams last year. We are miles better
Josh has the personality of a Texas Aggie. For better and worse. People who know Aggies understand. Big ego, thinks he's got everything all figured out, more serious demeanor, but nice guy generally, not really funny or fun, but productive and can be trusted. It doesn't surprise me at all he has a soft spot for A&M. When he visits he I envision a guy deeply connecting with all these blandish kindred Aggie spirits lol. Even Aggies know I'm tellingthetruth, 👍 whooopers 😂
Really sounds like you are talking about Texas people…. I’m guessing you are a longhorn and completely blind to the perception they have in both sports and the professional world.
How funny would it be if South Carolina beat Ole Miss? Give Kiffin a losing streak his last year there. 😂😂😂
PATE second time Michigan loses when ranked #10? Lmfao I just put a grand on it.
Kentucky is a good football team... Glad yall see it now but when uga was caught struggling with them we got the overrated chant
I never thought I would say this but this may be the first time ever that I think the AP poll, especially the top 5, is better makes more sense that the JP poll. No way Oregon should be in anyone’s top 5 outside of some homer Duck fans. Ohio St. at 1 makes no sense either.
Miami's going to steamroll again this week and Clemson is going to make DJU consider a new sport lol
Amen, as a Vols fan since the early 90s I 100% have PTSD from the last 20 years
The dark ages are over
Oregon is 2-0 against Tennessee...just sayin 🦆
Y'all look a bit scary this year.
Woke vs Coke is so damn good
So Ohio St has played no one no ranked teams and has one of the SOFTEST schedules in America! They shouldn’t be #1 in anything. They ain’t winning anything. Day has 1, ONE playoff win in the last 6 yrs.
😂😂
It has started pretty soft but they play a ton of big teams in the 2nd half literally every ranked team nearly in the big 10 they play outside of Illinois and USC
Florida St will show out against Miami because it’s a rivalry game. This is FSU’s CFP game.
Man are you a Super Jerk!!!!!!!!!!!!! A.) Miami is really good this year!!!!!!!!!!!!! B.) FSU is straight Garbage this year....Also in 2002 FSU killed 45-3, last year just barely 27-0 with a rookie 1st start and almost won!!!!!!!!!!!! Rivalry or not we will get your best best game I know but it won't matter FSU ain't 30% of past years quality teams but this year no way because they are horrible!!!!!!!!!!!!!
27-20 typo error above not 27-0
I mean after the “snub” I would have thought they would have shown up every game this year. But yea, cause it’s a rivalry…
I mean aTm likely should have been tied late at home against Bowling Green and then when you watch their Ark game, it was ugly and if Ark just has competent QB play likely loses that as well and Ark is very average at best.
Kalen Deborah is UGAs daddy... Smh.. how do you have uga in the top 10 still? Crazy especially cause you dropped ole miss
Texags Friday?
Miami was handed the game over VT to save the ACC this season.
"Lane Kiffin can't lose that game" "Ole Miss can't lose that game"
Heard that when LSU came in here. And LSU needed refs to overturn TWO pick six's, Sellers not playing in the second half, and more to come out with a win. Sellers looks to probably be near 100% for the game. Rocket probably playing too. Depending on the river lowering and other hurricane related issues, Williams Brice will be full. Tickets are sold out. Doesn't mean butts in every seat. Could be another game where refs make the game's outcome about them. I hope not. I'd rather lose because Ole Miss was able to do what they wanted on offense and shut down our run game making us one dimensional. However, I wouldn't be surprised if refs inserted themselves. Par for the course in 2024 across CFB! However, I know Kennard, Steward, Sanders, Hemingway, Edmond, etc will all be getting in Dart's backfield. If we can keep him from being comfortable we can disrupt their offense and make it a game. Kentucky has shown he can be rattled. Don't be surprised to see Emmanwori take a TD to the house.
And there's only ONE SC and USC and that's The USC 🐔 The left coast didn't exist when our state and university were founded.
OU at 23? It it my CIVIC DUTY to remind you we beat Auburn at Jordan-Haire with a true freshman qb, half an oline (that was questionable when healthy) and 5 WRs out. Tell me you hate Oklahoma without saying you hate Oklahoma... you and Twister can go find a nice room to do yourself!
It’s Auburn.
Jordan-Hare magic only works in rivalry games.
Y’all are ass, just not as ass as us
Your offense is trash regardless of the excuses.
Why would you be higher if youre missing all the good players? And Auburn is in shambles. Congrats on your 1st SEC win but you went from the freshman squad to varsity, reach back out when actually prove something
Hog fan. A&M hater. Proudly
Aggie here. Don’t even hate the hogs, they are just there for us to play in a lame neutral Texas Stadium and walk away with a win. It’s a forced rivalry and all the hogs have. And we don’t even care ha.
Kentucky getting spanked by South Carolina doesn’t mean anything?
I think it will if the Cocks lay pipe to Ole Miss. Retroactively, so to speak
So Oregon beat a team that is 1-3 and not in great shape. An they jump Tennessee come on…
ND has more ranked wins than anyone, the only reason 11 is too high is because they have lost a crazy amount of front line players to injury. They beat UL without their top 3 CB’s, their top 3 DE’s and top 4 O linemen. That’s crazy.
And they lost to NIU at home
No buddy the only reason 11 is too high is because they lost to NIU and their qb couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat
Is NIU a top team? My team torched them just a year ago. And my team was not great last year
There’s not a planet in the universe where a team that hasn’t won a conference title AND lost to a MAC team at home can be allowed to make the playoffs at the end of the year. With those facts in mind, ranking them higher than maybe 13 makes 0 sense.
Hey! I live in Alabaster...who do you hate here?
Nah Josh I love you BUT HOW IN ANY WORLD WOULD BAMA NOT BE TOP 2
I have a question about conference tie breakers. And how it will effect the playoffs. What if USC wins out. Oregon loses to Ohio St and wins out. Ohio St loses to Penn St and wins out. Penn St loses to USC and wins out. Indiana... That's right. Indiana loses to Ohio St and wins out. You got a 5 way tie of one loss Big 10 teams. Who plays for the conference championship? And how would that effect the loser? Same with the SEC....Texas loses to Georgia and wins out Tennessee loses to Georgia and wins out. Georgia wins out. Bama loses to Tennessee and wins out. You'll have a 4 way tie of one loss teams. If Ole Miss held serve against UK they could have lost to Georgia and won out to make it 5 teams in the SEC as well. But in the 4 team SEC tie and 5 Big 10 teams, would the playoff committee take those 9 teams plus the 3 auto qualifiers? And hypothetically, if Ole Miss would have held serve, would we take 5&5 and squeeze out say Boise St? Or would one of the SEC or Big 10 CO CHAMPIONS be squeezed out? Ok that's more than one question ❓...
It's a valid question (all of them) and I've wondered the same thing. I would imagine that margin of victory and strength of schedule would come into play at that point
@fletchdiggitydawg well in the case of ole miss making it 5+5 no the g5 wouldn't be squeezed out because they can't be. But yes if there are that many 1 loss teams in the big 2 I would assume 9 would go. In fact I'd bet heavily on that. But it's highly unlikely to happen.
@@bwl57 I agree. It's highly unlikely. UK beating Ole Miss kinda proves that. But I'm willing to bet that sooner or later it will. Or something very similar. But with these super conferences continuing to develop the chances will grow. They say a conference champion gets an automatic bid, but if we have 4 or 5 co champions several co champs won't get in. Indiana, for example, would likely get snubbed. But as a co champ who was denied a chance to win their championship game, automatic bid loses traction and credibility in my mind. And that's not even considering the ACC or Big 12 champs. I could see a world where we could have 6 or 7 2 loss Big 12 co champs. And lastly, where exactly would that leave a one loss Notre Dame. Crazy but eventually could happen
@@fletchdiggitydawg I agree with strength of schedule ECT.. would come into play. But when you involve that many teams, tie breakers are all over the place. And minimized as well. Still going to leave some teams short changed and unfair. Takes winning a championship off the field and in the opinion of people. Kinda like back to the first 100+ years of college football. As much as things change, some things stay the same
@@fletchdiggitydawg what I see happening would be Bama, Ohio St, Texas and Georgia kicking back in their EZ chair, chewing on a toothpick, saying " well let me know when y'all finish lining up our dominos" 😆😂
Will rogers a dawg
Are Texas A&M boosters holding Josh hostage?
It makes no sense how much he glazes them
Please explain. I know what “glazing” means, but he also picked Florida to beat A&M.
By your metric, Vegas is also “glazing” Texas A&M.
Theres a world where Tennessee is 4-0, and its called reality 😂🍊
Go bucks
It’s “Clem(p)son
lol do not be scared for Tennessee
Why did bro start the show repeating Trump's hurricane talking point? You can do the outreach without all that 😮
College football is for Trump
Who would’ve thunk that a college football podcaster would do more for millions of people affected by a hurricane than the federal government. I think everyone would’ve thunk it honestly but real good work you guys are doing out here, much respect for your help.
The governor's have said that fema was in place beforehand and they are getting everything they've asked for. At this point its up recovery team and state logistics to reach the people. This is what I've seen and heard from governor's news interviews.
Ole Miss will be more than fine this weekend. Beamer is still the coach at scar
You don’t think viewership went up because that was the beginning of the show so people were tuning in and not because it was two big name SEC teams? That game was every Zack Snyder movie ever: big names, flashy, uneven halves. One team played awful football one half, the other team played awful football for most of the half. You only called it game of the year because you were at the home field of the winning team so you had the energy, and it was AlAbAmA vS gEoRgIa for the umpteenth time. There’s other stories to be told in the 130 fbs schools playing football.
Anyone else notice that Josh constantly rips TV executives for destroying the sport and only caring about money, then turns around and uses the same logic (viewership and income) as to why he runs his show the way he does? If you truly care about the sport above all else, cover good teams and matchups regardless of the viewership. If it’s a business and not a charity, then don’t, but also don’t run segments villainizing others for doing the same. It’s off-putting.
All he does is cover good matchups regardless of viewership…what are you on about? This is the best CFB show on Earth.
@@louisianasportsfan656 Just replying to his rant towards the end of the show. Agree. Really good CFB show. He does cover LSU a lot. Bet that’s fun for you.
He rips in execs for caring about their wallet over the sport when creating rules and designs for the sport. He is using viewership to determine what he covers on the sport. One affects the product being provided, and the latter affects the secondary consumption channel. I don’t think it’s a completely honest comparison to make
@@bohdanleniuk Interesting. What do you mean specifically when talking about “rules” and “designs?” I wouldn’t argue that the on-the-field product has been made worse. We consume CFB, and when games aren’t being played, we consume people talking about CFB. It’s the same product being sold. I was speaking more to the demonizing of profit motive as if it’s not the same motivation for him.
@@srth7140 yeah so I misread your message originally as execs and not TV execs, so I was legitimately talking about design of the playoffs, some matchups, etc. but I do think a similar logic is true for tv execs. If you watch the game, you gotta watch it through the tv channel, so the way they frame the game, the way they paint the story of the teams / players, and the narratives they make are unavoidable and if their decisions are driven by the wrong reasons can lead to misrepresentations of the sport. People who watch Josh’s show are already cfb fans and watching the show is more of a choice than watching the TV product live
Joshua, you've picked Texas A&M over Missouri, whomst you've doubted consistently and blasphemously, in idolatrous worship of your model (a techo-pagan instrument of the computer gods).
Prepare for a reckoning.
Picking the cultists to prevail before entering their den of sin may seem prudent..but heed these words..
As the new moon waxes, and the slate of games wanes, a new month of the Lord's Game is born.
The month of COOKTOBER.
There is time to repent, beg forgiveness, and take Mizzou and the points on Best Bets.
Listen to your heart, renounce the false prophecy of your heathen model!
Its going to get exciting soon where the men and boys part ways from the top 12 Power Rankings in your schedule played in the last 3 spots in who makes the dirty dozen cut for all the marble's in the game in one national chanpion who showed they can run the table in a battle tested 4 game grid iron grit in your teeth and dirt stained uniforms of the battle royal king of college foorballs #1 will be coming to a Town near you for the holidays bowl coalition granddaddy of em all 2come in the natiinal championship in title town USA*
USC is too high. They showed no heart vs a weak Michigan team.
hahahahaha
How in the world would Georgia be over bama when they just played 😂
You literally watched the video did you listen?
If they played on a NEUTRAL field again. Like in the playoffs, Georgia is favored. That's all. But history shows us, that Georgia always struggles against Alabama too. So the system should know that
@@CrazeeAdambeing favored doesn't always get you the win like Georgia with Bama, some teams are just flat out better than you.
Jonathan SMITH NOT STEWART leads Michigan State. Christ you are really a MAGA troll aren't you Josh
Jonathon Stewart was a beast running back for Oregon 2006 & 2007 😆
Being a bama fan all my life. I don't understand why they got ranked number one over Texas. Does it have anything to do with TV ratings?
Alabama has more talent than Texas and is more battle tested. We'll see how Texas does with an SEC schedule.
Because Alabama is always on top place. They don’t need to always be there.
It would be great if we meet up somewhere down the line, rankings don't mean much, just make the playoffs and will take are chances
No it has to do with the fact that they won the best game in the past two years and looked very impressive in the best win any team has all year
Alabama did beat Georgia. So there is that. And the majority of it they were clapping them
Wow the model truly is bad 🫡that’s horrible to even look at