Oroville Update Final Forensics Report Sequence of Events after Spillway Failure
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- Опубліковано 10 січ 2018
- Final Forensics Reoprt:
damsafety.org/sites/default/f...
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www.paypal.me/juanbrowne - Наука та технологія
Video clip at 1:29 courtesy Beth Bello ‘elfinvine’ who captured the initial failure of the Oroville Spillway on 7 Feb 2017. Thanks Beth!
AWFUL lot more crete flyin in that vid than indicated by black specks or noted by hikers. I think pretty much every white "spear" is tipped by crete.
I think that Juan now deserves the "title" of
Professor for his factual evidence-based coverage of the entire Orovile Dam event sequence! Juan's coverage ought to be included in Professional level case studies related to this sequence. Juan's career as a Pilot gives him the needed critical thinking ability to seek and find objective info. Pilots need situational awareness and ability to make decisions in Real Time. Add those abilities to his communication skills, and friendly level headed delivery, and you get excellent coverage. Hats off to Professor Juan!!
Tracy -- I couldn't have said it better myself! Thanks!
Professor is a bit much. however reporter is dead-on. not the fake news media, but actual reporting of facts and not any political spin. going back to the days before hacks like Walter Cronkite found they could make up news for political ends. Juan is probably the BEST reporter we have in the US today.
There has been such a vacuum of of proper journalism for SO many decades that when a very good job, as journalists should do, is done, then Mr. Juan Stands miles above the grads from the universities. ALL Journalists should take Mr. Juan's example & do their jobs as he has. He only does it as a hobby or part time !!!! He also understands how to edit a vid to make it correct & understandable !!! Salute to Mr. Juan !!!!
+Dave -in-NJ
Oh please, "bias" you are blindly bias against factual sourced information from main stream news media. Walter Cronkite was one of the best but your rightwing lying media has waged war on truth tellers. Wake Up!
A missed point of Juan's report is the difficult decision making processes by Dam and power plant entities. Juan would have obtained all the great timelines, plans and charts from these very entities.
And it's not "title" (meaning so-called title), but plain simple title, un-quoted. Sometimes "fake news" is just an oops, or "I thought I understood."- honest mistake. Sometimes not, e.g. Fox, Breitbart, etc., with malevolent agenda. Calling Walter Cronkite a hack calls for push-back.
I hope that one of the main things learned from this failure is to not cast aside maintenance of our infrastructure. I place blame on the politicians of California for spending money on other pet projects and not maintaining the dam. It is not just California but in every state and the nation as a whole. We must as a society elect officials that don't over promise and take care of the infrastructure they are elected to oversee. I have no idea how we are going to wake up the citizens of this country to start paying attention to how their money is spent. Anybody that has ever watched one of the man on the street interviews about current events and who our leaders are and what they are responsible for knows what I am speaking about. I'm not even going to bring up history or specific civics questions I've seen that a 5 year old should be able to answer. Stepping down off my soapbox now, thank you.
Thanks Juan for being a true news outlet.
Excellent detailed report, Juan. We trust your reporting. You hit the nail on the head every time. What a difficult and stressful time for executives, geologists, contractors, sheriffs, and the people of Oroville.
Hey Juan, I'm living in Belgium and followed this incident since the beginning.You always gave proper information about this situation.You're a good and trusthworthy voice and I could understand anything you told concerning Oroville.You're doing a great job and will keep following you on your great video's. Thanks for being a good human with his heart in the right place. I truelly was afraid that Oroville could be a disaster in California. Thanks Juan for all the effort you put in all your vids to give people the right information.
Juan Browne's reporting work over the last year is a wonderful demonstration of how to communicate the complexities of scientific and technological matters to the public. He correctly concludes that the entire Oroville Dam saga will be a textbook case for training engineers and managers in how to work through emergencies. Many thanks Mr. Browne!
Nice job, Juan. You are the textbook example of how reporters should do their job.
Juan's break down of this complicated situation and multifaceted cause and effect decision discussion is as good as you could hope. I appreciate that Juan sticks to the facts and faithfully explains the conflicting objectives that legitimately had to be considered as the experts considered the priorities between the emergency spillway, the transmission line, the main spillway, and the power plant. Thank you, Juan!
This explanation is better than the actual report. I've read the report twice, and it's written actually surprising poorly. It has a number of conclusory statements that aren't obviously supported. The authors -- in my view - over-use jargon that seems more intended to impress us with their intimate knowledge of dams, but which interferes with the value of the report to tell the story of what happened. We want to policy makers to read and understand these issues. But they have to understand it. This video is an excellent summary.
I skimmed through the report and found it to be highly redundant. There were a lot of appendices, with lots of overlap between them and the main body of the report. Having followed the story from Juan's excellent reporting, I had no trouble understanding most of the jargon. There is a list of abbreviations on Page v.
I came away with the conclusion that DWR really doesn't do a good job of managing maintenance and safety issues. They are much more concerned about delivering water and power to their various constituencies. They rely on the regulatory agencies to tell them what to do to be compliant with safety issues. They aren't being proactive enough. It's all too easy for maintenance and safety to take a back seat to other considerations like keeping within budget and headcount. They probably never would have found the budget to replace the main spillway if it had not failed so spectacularly. They would have kept on patching it year after year, decade after decade.
The spillways were never given the consideration they deserved. All the safety efforts were directed toward the main dam and the power plant. It simply wasn't appreciated by anybody that the main spillway could fail so dramatically from the large cracks that had developed. They were seen as "normal" even though it was obvious from year 1 that they were large and allowed considerable water to escape into the drain system.
Another conclusion I came to is that the herringbone drain system weakened the structure. Had the slab thickness not been compromised by the drains the failure probably wouldn't have happened, even though the foundation was not up to design criteria. Of course, the incompetent rock and poorly cleaned portions of the foundation exacerbated the issue.
There is also a fair amount of friction and empire-building within the organization. Dept of Safety of Dams and the Chief Dam Safety Engineer in particular are not well connected into the operational reporting hierarchy of the organization. They are off in their own little fiefdoms with insufficient internal communication with the rest of the organization. The report goes out of its way to note that DSOD folks adopted the strategy of hanging around with the FERC folks so that they could at least overhear what was going on.
It seems to me that the best way to make sure that safety comes first at Oroville is to require DWR to report on a regular basis to the citizens of Oroville and the Butte County sheriff and endure a proper grilling from those who's lives depend on the safe operation of the dam complex. It was apparent when the disaster happened that DWR puts on a very professional show for public consumption. But it was also apparent that they were doing so precisely because communication with the downstream public had been markedly insufficient in the past.
It's a standard, technical report. There is nothing wrong with the presentation or language used in the report. Technical reports do not "tell a story of what happened." Story telling is for fiction and non-fiction novels. Technical reports present information as documentation of conditions and events. The "jargon" you complain about is the technical language used to factually describe the facility and events. Perhaps YOU need to expand your vocabulary. The real problems that caused the failure are documented clearly in the Summary and then later detailed in the report. The most important documentation is the poor construction of the original spillway that became evident shortly after completion, and the acceptance of this as being "normal." "Almost immediately after construction, the concrete chute slab cracked above and along underdrain pipes, and high underdrain flows were observed. The slab cracking and underdrain flows, although originally thought of as unusual, were quickly deemed to be “normal,” and as simply requiring on-going repairs." There's a lot more information about operations, lack of maintenance, etc. None of it is presented as screaming headlines - "Here's The Big Story" fashion - but, simply as facts. It's all there, you just have to learn how to read technical reports.
Thanks a bunch. I didn't understand that it was debris that raised the level in the Thermolito Pool that threatened the Power Plant. Now I do. Really appreciate the no BS explanation. Thanks again...
Outstanding Juan! It certainly was as challenging a situation as one could ever imagine. Excellent job of putting the sequence of everything happening all together, no easy job there!
Bill Ward k
THANKS for the DETAILS.... VERY MUCH APPRECIATED Juan !!!
THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS TONIGHT FOR ALL.... GOD BLESS AMERICA !!!!
Great and very clear report. Thanks a lot for your time & enthousiasme!
Michael, Switzerland
Juan, once again, from a lifelong Oroville resident, I'm so grateful for your thorough, easy-to-understand reporting. Gotta say tho', watching this report brought on chills, just like I had to deal with for a few weeks almost a year ago when it was all happening! I'm so glad the lake level is as low as it is -- I'm thinking we won't have anything to worry about this year, & hopefully the 'powers that be' will have plenty of time to get this thing taken care of, so that we can finally trust the strength & integrity of the entire facility!
Clear .… succint, yet comprehensive ..… as always. Thank you, Juan. The world needs more guys like you.
Look forward to the continuing series digesting the Forensics Team Final Report into plain, easy to digest language. Thank You. 👍👍
Juan your work covering this disaster has been exemplary. Thanks for your dedication of bring the facts that really matter. You've been so good at cutting thru the BS and bringing your dedicated viewers the real story. I'm proud to be a subscriber to the blancolirio channel and thanks for all of your tireless efforts keeping us in the know!
You Should get an award for the quality of your reporting. Your attention to detail and your ability to explain all the details is simply awesome.
He did. Get one that is.
Top notch explanation of what I'm sure is quite the detailed report! I'd attend Juan's "Oro Dam Incident" class any day of the week 🤓👍
Thank you again for your reporting, especially this very helpful summary of events. While campaigning I often meet people who were evacuated from Oroville and downstream areas, and it's really compelling to hear about the long-term impacts of the evacuation. A major aspect of this incident has been the loss of trust in DWR by the people who live around the dam, many of whom feel they are still not getting good or useful information from the government. After working on natural disaster response and hazardous waste projects for 30 years, I spend a lot of time guiding decisionmakers toward communications that are honest and show how critical decisions are made.
Thank you Juan! You must be up for various awards because your investigative journalism really does just set a standard that few will ever reach.
Juan, Outstanding explanation of the events! Thank you so much for such a clear and fascinating report, and for all your previous work on keeping us aware of the work as it progressed.
I've studied several other accidents and disasters, and they share common features. A combination of factors including original design flaws, together with time and human nature (e.g normalisation of deviance), lead to a "perfect storm" where risk is not properly managed and an accident occurs. Whether an accident turns to disaster depends on how quickly the failure mode cascades to a catastrophic failure.
Oroville was a close call, but fortunately the erosion of the main spillway was contained and the lake level reduced to a safe level.
Thanks for your detailed and informative reporting, that still maintains a human touch.
As one of the 180k evacuated in the incident, that was a nightmare
Thank you so much for helping us understand how "big a bullet" was dodged by the actions which saved the Hyatt power plant and kept [more] disastrous flooding from occurring. This year so far is assuring us that the rain event of 2017 is a "50-year-flood" event. [We can hope it is actually a "100-year-flood" event, but enough time must pass without a worse scenario to be certain.] We also hope that an even wetter year might be handled by the spillway, even as we hope we do not have a year quite so wet.
Again, thank you for your report and level-headed insights into the challenges.
Great job Juan. " Just the facts ma'am". Joe Friday. The way journalism should be. - Bill
Great report Juan, Wow I did not know that they almost lost the Hyatt Power Plant I mean the water was actually 2 feet over flood stage it was indeed heroic efforts to save the power plant my hats off to the engineers who saved the plant and Kudos to you for a great report.👍👍👍
Juan,
Your deliberate, measured approach, walking through events, circumstances and situational decision-making leads us to critically examine the entire scenario, adding important details often skimmed over by other sources.
It has also reminded me to view other significant news events with a critical eye, sidestepping the emotional "We're-all-gonna-die" crowd.
Thank you!
p.s Love the Mighty Luscombe!
Juan. Thumb up for this state of the art analysis of facts, making this obscure report as clear as fresh water.
Seriously good coverage and detailed! Better then the main stream media by a long shot. You really make this so clear and understandable.
Juan,
These reports on the Oroville Dam this past year have been exceptional. You Offer straight concise reporting with little or no editorializing. The way it should be, the way it used to be. Allowing me to come to my own conclusions.
On the other hand, the flights you took with your young son touched me a lot. I'm not a pilot, but I do have life experiences that I did share with my children, because it's my story and important that they know it... and now i am beginning to hear versions of those stories being recited back to me by my grandchildren. It's a kick.
So, good job, and God Bless.
Simply the most factual reporting ever witnessed in my life on this planet. I love to see a beautiful mind tackle other complicated subjects without the emotion, rather strict fact reporting. I could not agree more that we are witnessing one of the greatest learning moments in the history of many if not all engineering fields. Good thing as many lives depend on it. There is no reward or award for the heroes that saved the plant at the tailrace. Only Juan Brown's Blancolirio channel gives you these details. The airplane training reference makes so much sense, and shows how most of the data given in his reports comes from that type of critical thinking, and critical team thinking and doing. Great reporting.
Great first look and follow up on the final forensics report Juan. Your efforts, diligence, and professionalism are greatly appreciated.
Thank you for a very well done presentation. Appreciate the way you stick to facts and limit on opinion. Good job. Looking forward to your next report.
Thank you Mr. Brown Sir, for your absolutely excellent coverage .
We now have the advantage of hindsight but It's amazing how little rebar and concrete was used back when the spillway was originally constructed (per the historic photos you showed). And that craftsmanship kept it going all those years taking all that punishment. Pretty incredible.
Wow very detailed information this is why your the best Jaun. Yet you make it very easy to understand thank you and may God bless you and your family. Staying tuned in for pt. 2.
Thank you so much for the impressive flyover which allows me - and other viewers - to get a grasp of what is going on in the repair or the spillway et al. The complete engineering of this is, well, simply complex...per se.
Having watched & listened to your reports from the beginning Juan, I thought this would be of little interest. How wrong I was. To have you provide such an eloquent & precise summary including all the facts, held my interest to the end. Once again, thank you so much for providing what the 'others' are unable to.
Great explanation, I have followed your reports since your first on the spillway failure. I don’t know why I was so interested since I live in Florida , but I really enjoy you channel. The aviation segments are especially interesting, i have a private pilot’s license but don’t fly anymore, can’t pass medical.
Nicely done. You had given us most all this information before, but stretched out over about 8 months. So it's nice to see it all put together, it makes it a lot easier to figure the timeline of the whole situation.
Duck Landes and finally with the correct data instead of guessing.
I read the official report and understood quite a lot, but I think you put it all in a very clear way, Juan, I understood a lot more because of your video. Well done.
Thank you very much ! I've been following Orovile Dam event for almost a year now from the other end of the world :) As a physicist I find building dams, the way they work and this unfortunate event fascinating. I'm glad I found you because you explain everything in a rather scientific manner which I'd prefer. At the same time I'm sure anyone can understand what has been going on and why - and that's a rare gift ! Plus the awesome footage from the above ! Thanks to you I guess I found a new interest and read a lot about constructing and building dams. Again, thank you and I'll be following.
Blancolirio again sets the standard for reporting on the Oroville Dam situation. Very good work, Juan.
Outstanding report Juan. ! Just when I thought you had reached your peak you just raised the curve again.
Another outstanding report. The details, timeline, all great. Like the graphics and use of pointer. Those timeline graphs are amazing how they show so much...
Wow. Have watched this from the beginning and followed Juan's reporting throughout. As well as I thought I understood the sequence of events, this video really cleaned it up in my head. What a box they found themselves in trying to guessimate what the results of their actions could be.
I REALLY liked your final comments. People did the best they could, with the pressures (geophysical or management) they faced to an overt, an unanticipated event. We learn from our mistakes. Sad, but hopefully true.
Thank you Juan- great concise step by step coverage. the video of when the spillway ruptured... it is as I thought... I would like to see the math on how much hydraulic power pressure hit the spillway at the time of rupture.. ( velocity , volume ) The formula for calculating kinetic energy (KE) is KE = 0.5 x mv2. I am sure a lot of people at the state gov. were in shock and disbelieving that it was crumbling in front of them. all of this points to politicians and bureaucrats trying to cut cost by cutting funds for maintenance, and no long term plan for maintenance.
Great Job we more men like you in this county. From a fellow VET thank for your service. Also you have beautiful family!
Great info. I was both a pilot and an airport firefighter we were trained that most accidents involve multiple factors that combine at once.
Great reporting Juan. Wow, what an incredible story. Probably be a movie. Thank you sir
Thank you for a very interesting series of videos about the Oroville incident. The similarity to plane crash incidents (where a number of separate failures combine in a way never foreseen and therefore not planned or trained for) is striking..
Man, this video was cherry on the cake for me. Answered all questions and key points I missed along the way. I look forward to future videos. Keep up the great work but stay safe.
Mr. Browne, thank you so much for all your informative videos. I have not read through all these comments, but if in autopsy is done I would sure like to know answers to the following:
- I know that this is a huge balancing act. That said, why in the world was the lake full prior to this event? Don’t they make room for winter rains? This decision making really needs to be discussed in my opinion.
- Why was the “river valve” inoperative? How long had it been inoperative and why wasn’t it fixed prior to this event?
- Who was responsible for the repair of the main spillway? And why was it not properly maintained?
And finally, what role did the fish hatchery (located just downstream) have in the decision-making not to let more water out early? Were 200,000 people put in harms way because of that fish hatchery?
And again, thanks for all the great, drama-less reporting!
Amazing presentation Juan. Sure hope here in Houston area someone would do a similar analysis of the timing of the decision to release the waters from Addicks and Barker reservoirs after the storm last August. Alas it's now in the hands of lawyers and homeowners who are still in limbo. Admire your continued efforts toward factual reporting, it surely is missed elsewhere these days.
Your videos on the Oroville situation, from the beginning to now, are excellent. UA-cam cutting your monitization is foolish and unfair.
Finally, a complete report that makes sense of it all. Thanks, Juan I have been following this situation from the start. Juan, you have kept a clear and unbiased report issued throughout. Thanks again.
Thank you Juan - for your rational, intelligent coverage of this entire event .
Thanks very much Juan, always nice to be kept in the loop over here in England. Top quality video as per usual. 🏆👍🏼😊
This is a fantastic report, Juan! Thank you so much. The summary you give is an incredible explanation of what happened there at Oroville. Keep up the good work! You are my favorite channel!
Great report, Juan! You've made what was very complex and proceeded under great duress very clear and intelligible! I'm certain that colleges and universities will avail your videos for engineering, geology, and hydrology students to study! Thank you for all you are doing to aid and assist citizens and officials alike to comprehend lessons to be learned from this near-fateful series of events, especially those who live downstream!
Wow! 9 minutes old. ...Definitely the best summary of The Oroville Dam (Fiasco) 555 ....in Thai Language, and 5 is "ha" ... "hahaha" is 555. I need to watch this first, but I also need to boil a kettle , and ENJOY! Thanks Juan. BRILLIANT. [edit] Maybe the emergency spillway could be made from Standard River Diversion reinforced Concrete Culvert Sections? An amateur engineering groupie suggestion.
Awesome video. As others have stated. This information is not new to those that have been following along from the beginning. It’s great to see it all set on a timeline. Great job. “See ya here”.
Excellent. I could see and feel the decision makers’ stresses in your explanation. Well done!
lolz...you included a snap of your Godzilla pic. Good for you. :-)
BTW, I thought the addition on that one video of the Godzilla song was perfect.
Thanks for what you share with us, and thanks for the vid of Christmas @ Royal Albert Hall. That was amazing.
Useful? Absolutely! Interesting, factual, informative... all that and more! As I'm watching I am thinking of all the prep time to compile, edit, arrange, record, more editing of this excellent video. Thank you Juan! Liked, of course! And subscribed months ago.
Juan, "Obi-Wan" - Pilot, Registered Professional Land Surveyor, Jedi-Knight, and over 30 years directly involved in civil Engineering of all aspects... Very, VERY well explained, and totally understandable. Thank you so much for an "informed" analysis... Personally, I can't thank you enough. Can you even begin to imagine the amount of sh$@ running down the legs of the the "Higher - Ups" during this potential catastrophe...
What a fantastic explanation on the Oroville Dam Spillway Disaster ! Great update Juan and straight forward data ,the graph helps to see the timelines of the events.Thanks for your devoted dedication ,Juan. Stay safe and as always God Bless ,Cheers!
Thank you for your very detailed report. Simply outstanding! Looking forward to your next report.
You sure keep reporting on something that’s of interest to many people that the news has simply let’s skate away. Thanks.
Thanks for the excellent summary. Looking forward to the detailed reports.
Demonetized!? This is a video that can be shown to all. No ranting, no cursing, no accusations, just factual information, truly appropriate for all 59 genders, ages, races and political persuasions. My goodness what meets with their approval?
Juan thank you so much for taking the time to study the report and let us know what they have said. Very informative information
Awesome explanation! - I finally grasped the difficulty of weighing up the loss of the powerplant against the ersion of the spillways. - Thanks a lot!
Juan ,félicitation pour la grande qualité de votre résumé sur cet incident.
Fantastic reporting with thorough explanations of events. Thank You.
Wow, an honest assessment of news...maybe this is Truth news, and that is why it is so refreshing, thanks Juan, following your reporting for a year now
Great job Juan.
Keep the updates comin.
I've been hooked on ur reports since the beginning back in February.
Thanks for the great and very informative summary Juan! Great reporting.
That is so interesting. I've thoroughly enjoyed this journey you've taken us on the last year of this story. Thanks so much for all the time and effort you've put into these updates. Keep up the great work.
As usual Juan thank you very much for the time and effort you put into these reports.
HAPPY NEW YEAR u-all!! Thank you Juan for all you do. God bless you, family and loved ones... I so appreciate all your work....
Thanks for all the hard work Juan - you have done a fantastic job with all your reporting.
Fantastic calm and organized presentation of a very complex situation that distills it all down. Thanks a ton
This has been my goto source of information on this. Just facts, no bs. Thanks for going the distance on this, I'm sure we can all appreciate it.
this was a better rap up then a news channel could ever wish to do. I remember the day we all thought the dam was going to go. Where was Gov Brown before this day. I guess doing what he does best, nothing. and not fixing anything in the state. you need a few logals on the outside for your 777 , like they did in WWII.
"...we all..." absolutely did *NOT* think "the dam was going to go". Knee-jerk reactionaries, maybe, but not *all* of us, by FAR.
Great as always, Juan! Thank you!!
Very good report. Thank you for your well informed coverage of this major incident.
Thank you so much for this report I learned some very interesting points I might have never thought of. You made it interesting and helpful good job and I look forward to more videos on the subject and what the completed repairs as well as finding out the new improved steps.
Thanks, Juan! Been following all along. What a drama.
Brilliant. Comprehensive, yet on point. Thank you, Juan. Thank you again.
Thanks Juan, as always, wonderful reporting tremendous job!
I cannot believe youtubes stupidity/corruption in demonetising you...youre one of the most intelligent, factual, relevant, thorough and well presented citizen reporyers out there, plus talented, staunch loving family man and accomplished pilot....so sorry you were subject to that!! Ridiculous.
Saw this from a previous engineering post. My name is McNamara. The underground powerhouse was done by the McNamara Corporation. It was quickly determined that the geology here was seriously compromised. Foundation work for the turbines was a BIG question mark at the time. Of course, a Claim was filed for changed/mis-represented conditions as proposed by DWR in the bidding docs and I was in SF when that was submitted. That Claim was successful. I am mystified as to why anyone would be surprised at why the spillway failed. DWR would certainly know the risk here. A review of our claim, and Judgment comments would certainly be illuminating.
There should be a MAJOR engineering review of the geo UNDER the Hyatt.
Fantastic Report Juan!
Thank You Very Much!
Thank you Juan, Another great explanation for all to understand.
Thank you Juan, top notch as always
Great report, thank you for your excellent reporting.
Great reporting. Thanks Juan.
Really great summary Juan. Can’t wait to hear the rest of the tale.