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This was a strategic mistake on India’s path. In order to grow you most look out words not in. China had the same problem 40 years ago when it was time to join the WTO. 70%!of the Chinese went against it faring it would end Chinese businesses against higher quality American and European goods. In order for India to rise India must adapt to reality of a global world.
Le UPSC aspirant , it's economic survey document you are talk about . India said that they walked out of RCEP because such kind of tariff reduction in RCEP futher de- industrialised some manufacturing sector in India that has lead to growth of Chinese import in Indian market RCEP says 80% of goods go on reducing duties untill they reach zero or low level in 20 years Thank you Shekhar Gupta for this line . The Print
@Yatesh Kumar India has to make up its mind!! Is ether India stay by itself or adapt.close minded approach will not work in the twenty first century China had that same problem in the 70s
Trade pact is about goods, not migration of workers. Of course, no country is going to accept. We had to play this card becoz there isn't much industralized goods we can export.
This episode has been more of a generalised endorsement of free trade agreements, rather than a specific scrutiny of India's interests in joining or withdrawing from the RCEP. China is a nation that weaponises trade, and I believe, the Indian establishment is wary of that. Once you become dependent on Chinese trade, either imports or as an export destination, it is likely that the Chinese will hold you to ransom at some point of time. The best example today is that of Australia. So, the dependence on Chinese goods has to be shaken off, even if it means economic loss in the short term. Since such an excuse is not publicly possible internationally, in this era of free trade, so the reason shown has been that of protecting domestic industry. It is true that RCEP is not only about China, but they are very much the big brother among the RCEP signatories.
That said, India has to shake off the colonised mindset, the chalta hai mediocracy, neglect of quality and merit, and a lot of other holy humbug, now, if we are to get anywhere in the next two decades.
@@shivarajnidavani5930 root cause lies in governance system. Labour laws, land acquisition, environmental laws, finance ,every thing is subject to lot of litigation and paper work in India and thus becomes costlier and time consuming . Whereas in china its dictatorial system where labour works as a slave, any land belongs to govt and they dont have to bother about environmental legislation. Local administrators can give any permissions without bothering to face PILs and court cases.
@@ajaatbandhupoornam9178Agree..... It is political compulsions which hampers pro-market reform in India.... As Montek singh Ahaluwalia's one statement sums it up- Economic Reform in India is done stealthly to avoid political repercussions....
Personally, I am more inclined to support Professor Ila Patnaik's assessment of India not joining RCEP over this analysis. Free trade is great but head to head India can never compete with China (not in the near future) on manufactured goods and it will result in a surge of made in China products in India. This will only serve to benefit China at the cost of India's national security and economy.
@@ranu__12 but we need to stop at some point... india can't fight with chinas production rate but it needs to happen.. I belive this is the best time to start .. other wise with these many work force, brilliant minds, great potential market.. can't always depend a foreign hostile country whose main motive is if possible control the whole Asia...
What has "National security" got to do with Chinese imports? If Chinese imports are cheap, it benefits middle class. The only people it doesn't support is Indian trading lobby which keep high prices and are voting block for BJP
@@fladeann9348 Sir, International Trade runs on the strength of innovation and good product. For that we need domestic market. Maruti and Hyundai were allowed to rule Indian market. Now both are world leader in Small Car. We need 100 such companies.
@@YS-hl1hy at the cost of fucking up indian smartphone companies like lava, micromax, karbon mobile etc I know they had crap products but you know how Chinese dumping strategy has screwed our domestic industry? This is one of the most important reason why we are facing such huge unemployment crisis suddenly Right after the Chinese entry during 2014 and growing rapidly with cheap internet from jio Killing our own electronics industries Our industries aren't competitive enough for now , If we sign up for rcep , we will become dumping grounds for china meanwhile our domestic industries will die This is exactly will happen to Asean countries like Philippines , Cambodia ,Malaysia , indonesia etc This deal is only profitable for manufacturing powers like Japan, south korea , Vietnam and china The rest Asean countries will become dumping grounds and will be completely dependent on china economically meanwhile there will be a huge crisis of employment due to the trade deficit
@@YS-hl1hy they just signed up because it's the easiest way to avoid recession for now But they forgot that it will do immense damage to their own industries on the long run Meanwhile, south korea ,Vietnam , Japan and China will flourish South korea and Japan will get the rich Chinese domestic market While china and Vietnam will have the monopoly in the markets of other Asean countries because most Asean countries can't afford expensive japanese or South Korean made products
But in RCEP there is catch, China is largest benificary that is national security threat. (they turn our neighbors against us, they build project on our land all these bc of not balanced trade)❌❌❌ India🇮🇳 have bilateral, trilateral trade agreements with many countries (tariff reduced in that way) ✌️✌️🇮🇳
A smart person is he who accepts his ignorance instead of yapping about something he knows nothing about ,Shekhar sir is humble enough to admit that he does not know much about the subject ,this is why you command respect sir . Nevertheless an insightful episode. Keep up the good work !
Noise because China now effectively controls the world's largest trading block. This RCEP also shows the hollowness of Japanese and Australian opposition to Chinese imperialism. It's a wake up call for India that despite being Asia's 3rd largest economy and World's biggest free market, it still doesn't have enough bargaining power. Moreover, India now faces another challenge. All the talks of companies moving out of China to India stands still, as India ceded it's seat in RCEP (world's biggest trading block) now every major corp would obviously include RCEP factor in its relocation.
Spot on!! This episode lacked details and numbers. lacked nuanced. Did not provide a solid response or objections of the anti RCEP forces. Seemed more of an advertisement for globalization and neoliberal view point on the trade. It would be helpful for viewers to know that while China is the biggest economy in this trade grouping, China is one of the biggest practitioner of the protective trade. Moreover, all of the companies are state owned or has straight cash flow from the central bank. The reason China is rich today is b/c of the dirty capitalism and greed of the western corporations.
Shekhar Gupta is a very good story teller. Let me sum up in 1 line, " by staying out of RCEP, Modi is taking India to pre 1991". To say this he used 20 minutes that also with out related logic. Now I add 2 points: 1. In your channel Prof. Ila Pattanaik had explained why it's fine for India to be out of RCEP. I guess shekhar has not listend to her. 2. Listen to Sanjeeb Sanyal : He explained why India is not going back to protectionism even opting out of RCEP. Shekhar said India has FTA with all Asian nations who r part of RCEP. This is contradictory. If India has FTA with all these nation except China, then how come coming out of RCEP will hurt India. He does not explain this.
We are already in tade deficit in China which enjoy a trade surplus of 70 billion$ for various products like phones, TV , laptops,chargers, many cheap plastic items during diwali etc. Isn't it enough competition for Indian industries to grow? please support if anyone agrees with me.
I love the manner in which Mr. Gupta acknowledges the research and efforts of the younger journalists who do a lot of the spade work. Only a great team cash produce such excellent analysis and this behaviour goes a long way in shaping leadership in India.
Once Again Shekhar ji you have proven that in the age of partisanship in the media, The Print has stood head and shoulders above the rest. Fantastic analysis as usual.
Sir, please make a video on Power discoms in India. Why is that the cost of production of electricity is quoted much cheaper in India as compared to China yet the end user is charges much higher. And even then the discoms post a loss everytime and need frequent bailouts by the govt. Also, I think it's stupid India didn't join RCEP. Our dairy industry deserves to be destroyed if it can't compete with New Zealand. Services I agree could have been a part but India is just being left behind this way. Our Act-East policy, the Quad are all made useless by China by RCEP. Another failure for India on economical, diplomatic and security front.
I was doing my Business Management course when economy opened up and there were huge debate about end of Industries and return of "East India company". after nearly 3 decades India is doing better than a Hindu growth rate. Competition will kill Industries but will also give rise to new Indian competition to the world
But in RCEP there is catch, China is largest benificary that is national security threat. (they turn our neighbors against us, they build project on our land all these bc of not balanced trade)❌❌❌ India🇮🇳 have bilateral, trilateral trade agreements with many countries (tariff reduced in that way) ✌️✌️🇮🇳
This is a common mistake that a lot of people are making. RCEP is not about avoiding comptition. RCEP is about giving Indian industry a chance. We did the same thing that SG is suggesting for our electronics and we had a flood of cheap Chinese electronics in India which demolished Indian players. Also, not because of better products but because of the cheap capital and artificial currency depriciation of China. Courtesy of which we still cant make our own processor chips. We avoided the same mistake with automobiles and today we have a thriving competitive market in all fields of automobiles. Indian companies are competing woth the best products out there. Creative destruction is not about just having competition. Its also about having all players on the same level. No wealthy country in the world has become so woth zero tarrifs. Read the book called ' Bad Samaritans'. China, US, UK everybody have protected their industry for some time to come on a level playing field. We also have to keep in mind that we have a strong domestic economy to make. It cant happen merely on the back of imported cheap products. It is necessary for Indian industry to develop. We cant compare ourselves directly with Asian countries like Singapore and SK. Current efforts need to be seen from a different lens. Its not about protectionism. Its about building a strong domestic industry. It doesnt discourage competition but leverages our size to compell international players to compete by making in India, which was not the case during the licence raj
You are one of the most authentic and credible voice I can find today on any matter from trade to defence to political matters to film to melody and even to IPL.
Few things I wish to bring it to your notice. 1. Modi Govt. has not reversed any liberal reforms, it's only with China and no other contry. 2. I am into the Import and Export andI fully agree with the policies of Modi Govt. China didn't have level playing policies. Capitalism with communist policies is a deadlier combination where govt. interference is very high. 3. I have watched Indian businesses particularly traders misusing. Result was evident 50 billion trade deficit. Even though we liberalised our economy not enough was done or due to corruption enough could be done to promote the Indian businesses. I fully agree with the views of Ms. Illa. China is using trade as a weapon which India can't afford to ignore. My full support to Modi govt.for not joining RCEP. I see this one cut the clutter is all about free trade.
I think you are confused. Protectionism is when you do not allow the foreign companies to manufacture in India. They do not make in India when they can simply export to India.
One the most impactful cut the clutters!! In fact..The 'push child into water to learn swimming' line should be played again and again on speakers across all chowrastas in the country!!!
Let me use a simple (but somewhat ridiculous) analogy to put my point across - Assume this deal is an exam! We obviously haven't prepared for the exam! Ideally, we should be prepared for every exam! Obviously, we are not prepared! Let's say we partied too much!! So should we go to the exam hall and give an attempt or should we choose to not even attempt it? If we sit for the exam, there is a chance we could pass since we know how to give exams and we are not entirely stupid, we were just lazy! Let's say we fail, we would become more responsible for the next exam, or figure out something else after! If we don't sit for the exam, we will never pass! IMHO, We are reactive people, not pro-active people! Hence, the stick helps us more than carrots!!
Shekhar should ideally not venture into technical economic issues like RCEP. He should have conducted a Q&A session with Illa and he would have got all his wrong issues, ideas and concepts cleared. The answers to many questions are highly nuanced and conditional on many assumptions and factors. That said, India has taken a right decision as of now to remain out of RCEP. But India must get ready in next 3 to 5 years by way of massive structural reforms to do world class manufacturing and export. In the meanwhile, existing trade agreement with ASEAN is good enough but we should get the deals with USA and Europe done quickly.
@john cena the guy just talked for half an hour about how important free trade and opening the economy is and talked about all the good points of capitalism. How on earth is he a communist? Do you even know the ideologies of communism?
Thank you Mr Gupta and The Print for making an Indian liberal perspective on these important regional and global issues available on YT. Good vibes from Sweden, keep it up!
Shekhar ji, nice presentation. But I feel yours is a superficial and a simplistic assessment. If a to z imports are allowed too suddenly into India there will be unsustainable shock to the economy because of sudden inundation with cheap imported goods. The key is to smartly regulate imports and exports and emphasize on transfer of manufacturing technology. You will agree that Mr Modi has a good sense of business and is not naive. It is all an art of striking the right balance. The dynamic of a vast & complex country like India has to be different than say Cambodia or Vietnam especially when there is a provenly dangerous Captain in the RCEP. For Modi it is like making curd, right temperature and right duration and no shaking. Do it fast and you get a spoil. Thanks
It is an irony of India that it was the centre left party which started a more capitalistic approach and the right wing party that is going for more protectionism.
Gupta ji, some time free trade might ruins small scale industries and it happens in USA over time. Thousands of workers lost their jobs. Coming to your analysis on PV’s(1990s) open market and that time China not a WTO member. The industries survived with other markets that time. China came with bang in 2001 to WTO and some sector industries didn’t survive in these 20 years in many countries. Some how few Indian industries survived with these so called protectionism I believe. Your comparison seems orange(1990s) and apples(2020). Your comment on this plz?
Totally agree with you on this.... SG argument cannot explain this... On the other extreme the monopoly created by the FANGs in a totally open market like the US also defeats his hypothesis ...
@@nishitd FANG had the first mover advantage with a large domestic market. They would not need protection. It is the companies in emerging economies that need protection. China's tech companies are now creating world class product because they were not eaten up by FANG.
Good luck for The Print to grow further Have been an avid follower of the content of The Print. I have a suggestion for making Cut The Clutter in a multilingual manner especially coming up atleast with the same content in 3-4 major languages spoken in country to expand the audience base ,thus improving the content dissipation. Thanks
I have reached the END and was still waiting for reasons why we had to step out of RCEP... Rather the video has much explained the PROS and CONS of being part of trade (which is quite evident for any one following this topic) Seems this is a topic drilled down with a specific vested interest without revealing the clear picture... After all, point being made is as if we dont want trade at all with anyone which is definitely not the case...
Out of so many comments... this is the only one which sounds about right! Looks like logic is lost to this world SG is building a bunch of idiotic followers in the name of unbiased journalism!
After investing 28 minutes in listening you I only get a sense that what you said in the beginning was absolutely right- - " one should not try to wade into those subjects of which he may not have sufficient knowledge". You kept on telling stories and scratching perifiral surface without ever getting into the heart of the subject you intended to declutter.
Was waiting for this one. Thanks Shekhar Ji. Completely agree that India should have participated and tried to become more competitive instead of shying away.
The very immediate next video suggested is "Why India is right not to join RCEP trade deal" by ThePrint's Economics expert. Not that you cant have difference of opinion within ThePrint's team, but i'd rather believe an economist who knows the nuances -- instead of just 'free-trade = goood | tariff = baaad'.
Am subscribing today. Would have liked to have an App. Done know what hey it’s so difficult? Like your journalism though may not agree with you always. Haven’t seen anyone else covering foreign relations and analysis. Appreciate
The amount of knowledge I have gained from cut the clutters about varied topics , almost feels criminal to watch it for free . SG tussi great ho sirji!
Basically: 1. Fix infrastructure 2. Fix judicial system 3. Open up economy RCEP gives 20 years time to bring tariffs down to zero. In 20 years of we can't sufficiently ensure point 1 and 2, what are our elected representatives doing?
Well I think that's the beauty of @theprint everyone gets a seat at the table and as an audience we get better informed by listening to every side and as for opinion an informed citizen can and should form his own opinion.
@ isn't bureaucracy just a tool. People's priorities turn into political pressure, and political pressure can bring change for better or worse. Liked Gadkari's speech on bringing in a more merit based system there, hope some positive action is taken.
Just added myself to the list of subscribers! Cut the clutter & National interest are like my knowledge tonics! It’s honest, comprehensive, straight forward & most importantly unbiased. Even though I don’t necessarily agree with everything but I do believe it’s honest & sincere. So happy to support true journalism!
Hindalco still exists on the stock msrket and - acquired a $8bn Novelis aluminium business in America. Grasim was restructured multiple times in the last 20 years. Bad research. Can't blame Shekharji - markets and economics not his areas of expertise
The fact that Bajaj did better in finance sector than automobiles which they were doing for years tells you the appalling condition of our manufacturing sir . First make a Ranji trophy competition , before you select the players for Australia's tour of India .
That's really sad.. It also tells us about the apalling condition of Indian education system and lack of interest/funding in research. We could not innovate and compete with international products. On the other hand China managed to copy their technology.. But later China also invested a humongous amount of money into research and development. We used to regard Chinese products to be of lesser quality, but not anymore. :(
@@TheOpposition you want to be dumped with chinese goods more than we already are? india's manfacturing sector is far behind any of the country in rcep that is bcoz noone focused on infrastructure for so many years and people here are more interested in trading than manufacturing but it is slowly changing , i think india in few years after improving its manufacturing sector a bit will join rcep
@@madtitanoboa462 frankly who doesn't want entrepreneurs to thrive? But instead of building protectionist attitude we should look in to ways to strengthen our manufacturing capabilities, frankly this is what SG is putting forward. Cursing old govt is really a regressive, back then Indians were less educated and poor, they needed protection, this is not the case in today's modern age, when information is at fingertips, it far more easy for a policies framework that can transform economy. So far dearth of quality policy reform have a adverse impact on our country, when lowly Bangladesh is beating us in many important indicators and yet we are choosing to ignore. Therefore policy paralysis of the current regime is far more worrisome compare to govt 30 years back. After 7 years, the growth is incredibly distorted.... We could withstand 2008 economic slowdown but this pandemic and resulted slowdown is too much for a current regime.
It's a Universal Truth. You cannot run away from the Competition because it will never end. Competition is what Differentiates Hard Working and Talented People from Lazy and Irresponsible People. Unless Competition snatches your Happiness, it is a good thing.
Hi Sir, I cannot pay 500 INR per month right now. But I'm paying 100 INR every month through direct bank transfer. I will pay 200 INR from next month. ThePrint is turning out to be a synonym for high-quality journalism. Good going SG sir. Will keep supporting you :)
This is my own quote- Optimism is good but prudence is more important. While we may feel enthusiastic and optimistic about India will do better economically but past statistics shows us we aren't competent enough, forget about China even small countries like S.korea, Vietnam is doing better than us. Not joining RCEP is a Prudent decision.
Indian industry is still heavily dependent on MSME......they can't produce at cheapest rate with no innovation......we want monopoly like RIL, Tata, Mahindra, Adani etc to grow more. Then we will be able to compete internationally.
If you have a monopoly then you don't care about improving quality. Because you have no competitors so you make bad products. Then you can't compete with China. To compete you have to break the monopolies and face the world.
SG....want to know how much have we lost in manufacturing because of open trade policy since 1991. I think we should make more progress on reducing our red tapes before we throw open ourselves to the world.
There's no point in trading with the dragon. They are only interested in buying mining or agricultural commodities but no industrial products from anyone. If you have some product to sell in their market that's technically superior then it will be copied. No point just keep the trade with them to as low as possible
@@sushv6209 I think he meant without any proper infra and manufacturing other countries will simply takeover our domestic industries with almost free imports..maybe
@@sushv6209 yes, if we become dumping ground. Then only politicians will be forced to do things, industries will start dying then govt will be forced to do reforms. Do you think govt will do anything now ? No, it will just go back to doing nothing. And in the end we will be left behind.
Shekhar Sir, I am big fan of your "unconventional takes" on different subjects. Recently, I was reading a book named Tyranny of Merit which eloquently argues that we live in an age of winners and losers - events like Brexit or the rise of Trump are pushbacks against this culture of meritocracy. I am a big votary of competition and appreciate the concept of "constructive destruction". My question to you is this - how do we strike balance as a society?
Serious upsc aspirants knew the answer after hearing 1st two sentences 😂😂😂😂 - this year's Economic survey Former Foreign Secretary Shyam saran sir is of the same opinion what you have hinted shekhar sir But Although neo-liberalism is good for national GDP but no one can deny that it has created huge income inequality across the globe
You are right.. there is no a absolute right wing party in India...nehruvian so cialism is a curse that is deeply entrenched in our system,academia, establishment,... beaurocracy doesn't want to change too as capitalism lessens their chances of corruption, influence and power ....the all powerful beaurocracy has to be cut size in India
First of all love your #cuttheclutter and respect for your media to alllow different points of view on this topic i.e. Illanomics and this episode have different viewpoints. But the problem in this FTA that no one discusses are the non tariff barriers 1. China subsidizes it's industries which exports to other countries including service sector. Democratic countries like India lose out in this situation because India do not subsidize it's private sector but let's free market competition take it's course. China does not even allow google and facebook. Indian companies TCS, WIPRO do not even get access to China's market either 2. China puts non tariff barriers to protect it's domestic industries. It does not let fair competition take place in it's own country. 3. China devalues it's currency. 4. China steals R&D information from foreign companies and 5. most dangerous of all it uses it's access to it's market and economy as a weapon This FTA will just makes the previous points more larger in it's size. India has seen the long term impact of this and have stayed out of RCEP. Long term effects will be mostly felt in poorer nations like Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines and somewhat Australia too. the winners will be CHINA, Japan Vietnam and too a less extent South Korea. India will not only lose out in the manufacturing sector which it was willing to bear but India's strongest areas like Pharma and Service will not have access as well. So this may look like a blunder from SG's point of view and it will create economic hardship for India in the short term but in the long term it will be good for Indian economy as more and more Asean countries will feel the ill effects of the FTA in the upcoming years and will choose bilateral agreements with India. India should also fast track FTA's with US EU and UK as quickly as possible and should go for bilateral FTA's with JAPAN Australia And other South American countries. e.g. India already has a FTA with Chile and is expanding on it
Shekhar chacha I am more than happy to contribute but only for you,Alex philip, and mr. d n singh. I don't want my money to be spend on the print , web portal.
what the gov. needs to understand is that a free Trade Agreement works both ways and through signing the RCEP india and its products get a free access to the Chinese market which has the worlds largest middle class today. china had actually long restricted india’s products from the chinese market because indian products were much more cheaper than chinese products and by signing the RCEP china wont be able to restrict indian products anymore. but instead we chose to walk away from such a grand opportunity. after 1991 india,s exports went from 10-20 billion to the current 350 billion dollars that it is today and by only allowing cheap imports can companies get the time to set up there industries in a market in the first place. Plus the world’s largest exporters in the world are also the world’s largest importers. everyone talks about china having a exports of 3 trillion $ but dont look at the fact that china’s imports stand at 2.5 trillion$ which will only increase. so the day we come out of the crony capitalist propoganda propelled by this government we can get our economy growing again. how can u become a global superpower if u cant manufacture for the world.
Benefits of seeing good journalism is that when SG says "It didn't work for us" at 6:10 then we just take his word for granted. We don't have to go and do a Phd on Indian economics or trade history.
I m sure that the team with print are more than capable to asses the political situation in tamil nadu , the state is in the cusp of change.also I trust the print not the paid media .
You rightly pointed out ..creative destruction is integral to a progressive economy. Most of the companies in the past were owned by a limited no. of industrialists and their families. Many of them survived under govt. policy protection and had no incentive to modernise and use technological advances to improve productivity and quality. While destruction is a frightful word ...creative destruction implies enterpreneurship is on the rise, however the management skills and dynamism required for continuous transformation to leverage technological and market changes are still wanting in order for companies to survive over the long haul.
Sekar ji, we seems to have lost mfg advantage and replaced them with service sector stars.. we need to have mfg and service both.. eventhough US is having a great economy loss of mfg capabilities is a potential natural security issue ...
You can carry on your work without bothering about the left or right. Congratulations to 'the print' for NOT making it to the list of media houses of Mr. Prashant Bhushan's liking. It already qualifies you as an unbiased organization.
Maruti which was protected and forced to make products in india , then eventually partner with suzuki , had legs to stand on to complete when 1991 happened . I think we first need , domestic competition , while we amend lands laws, labour laws , red tape . And when they are strong open it up .
I agree what you said but our infrastructure doesn’t offer much to entrepreneurs. If our energy charges are 50% costlier then China how can it make products cheaper then China. Our railway transportation of goods is already overwhelmed and roads our not built for the existing traffic how can we match the production at the rate of China. So our bitter reality is to make product for our consumers and work hard on building our infrastructure.
SG Sir.. you are the only one who can be trusted in all UA-camrs.. because you only very honestly tell the bitter truths👍.. lots of love and respect for Sir🙏..
Guptaji Please can you make CTC about relation between pseudo-liberal and secular with rightwing Islam(anti Liberal ideology). Especially non-political like in media or entertainment (self proclaimed intellectuals). Across western world US ,west and north Europe, INDIA(only non western country). Thanks if you can make it.
Thanks Guptaji because of this ctc i remembered Abid Hussain committee for small and medium scale industries and " Na khatam hone wali kahani" written by Vp singh🙏.
Shekhar Sir, most of the literature in economics favours free trade but with respect to India, protectionism is required on SMSE (Small and Middle Scale Enterprises) . All your examples are of large scale companies and banking sectors but most vulnerable ones are the small businesses which are back bone of a thriving economy ( citing example of West Germany - all their protected SMSEs post WW2 are now multinationals). Chinese dumping of low value, bulk goods (e.g. plastic items) is gradually killing our small scale companies which currently have their market only within India. These needs to be protected in my view.
Sir wonderful demonstration nd explaination but one of the major reason to walk out of rcep was to safeguard our dairy industry bcoz if dairy business wud hv been exposed to imports then how wud our poultry farmers who are so small that some even own 2 cattles or 3 cattles compete wid the huge conglomerates in the dairy busines....we hv crores of such poultry farmers....if rcep wud hv been signed ...who wud buy our indian milk den...we wud just buy foreign milk nd dairy products nd indian dairy farmers wud go bankcrupt.....while we were negotiating other countries forced us to open up our dairy industry nd thats where we walked out
![Global Capitalism: China vs. US - System Rising vs. Falling [September 2022]](/img/n.gif)
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This was a strategic mistake on India’s path. In order to grow you most look out words not in. China had the same problem 40 years ago when it was time to join the WTO. 70%!of the Chinese went against it faring it would end Chinese businesses against higher quality American and European goods. In order for India to rise India must adapt to reality of a global world.
Subscription fee kam kariye,please
What does SG mean by hyphenated? Never someone who uses the word the way he does
Le UPSC aspirant , it's economic survey document you are talk about .
India said that they walked out of RCEP because such kind of tariff reduction in RCEP futher de- industrialised some manufacturing sector in India that has lead to growth of Chinese import in Indian market
RCEP says 80% of goods go on reducing duties untill they reach zero or low level in 20 years
Thank you Shekhar Gupta for this line . The Print
@Yatesh Kumar India has to make up its mind!! Is ether India stay by itself or adapt.close minded approach will not work in the twenty first century China had that same problem in the 70s
Also, One of the biggest downside is that RCEP didn't allow India to export services and also provide visa free employee access to their markets
Trade pact is about goods, not migration of workers. Of course, no country is going to accept. We had to play this card becoz there isn't much industralized goods we can export.
This episode has been more of a generalised endorsement of free trade agreements, rather than a specific scrutiny of India's interests in joining or withdrawing from the RCEP. China is a nation that weaponises trade, and I believe, the Indian establishment is wary of that. Once you become dependent on Chinese trade, either imports or as an export destination, it is likely that the Chinese will hold you to ransom at some point of time. The best example today is that of Australia. So, the dependence on Chinese goods has to be shaken off, even if it means economic loss in the short term. Since such an excuse is not publicly possible internationally, in this era of free trade, so the reason shown has been that of protecting domestic industry. It is true that RCEP is not only about China, but they are very much the big brother among the RCEP signatories.
That said, India has to shake off the colonised mindset, the chalta hai mediocracy, neglect of quality and merit, and a lot of other holy humbug, now, if we are to get anywhere in the next two decades.
You hit the nail on the head. This is absolutely the reason India has opted out. SG hasbeen too simplistic or I should say naive in this CTC.
But what is the root cause of incompetence of Indian industries with respect to Chinese?
@@shivarajnidavani5930 root cause lies in governance system. Labour laws, land acquisition, environmental laws, finance ,every thing is subject to lot of litigation and paper work in India and thus becomes costlier and time consuming . Whereas in china its dictatorial system where labour works as a slave, any land belongs to govt and they dont have to bother about environmental legislation. Local administrators can give any permissions without bothering to face PILs and court cases.
@@ajaatbandhupoornam9178Agree..... It is political compulsions which hampers pro-market reform in India.... As Montek singh Ahaluwalia's one statement sums it up- Economic Reform in India is done stealthly to avoid political repercussions....
Personally, I am more inclined to support Professor Ila Patnaik's assessment of India not joining RCEP over this analysis. Free trade is great but head to head India can never compete with China (not in the near future) on manufactured goods and it will result in a surge of made in China products in India. This will only serve to benefit China at the cost of India's national security and economy.
as if Chinese goods have not already flooded Indian market !
Chinese products have saved billions of dollars of middle and lower class indians.
@@ranu__12 we can't place or increase tarrifs after agreement
@@ranu__12 but we need to stop at some point... india can't fight with chinas production rate but it needs to happen.. I belive this is the best time to start .. other wise with these many work force, brilliant minds, great potential market.. can't always depend a foreign hostile country whose main motive is if possible control the whole Asia...
What has "National security" got to do with Chinese imports? If Chinese imports are cheap, it benefits middle class. The only people it doesn't support is Indian trading lobby which keep high prices and are voting block for BJP
India is not allowed free access to service sector. I am into Import and Export. I know how people are misusing free imports.
And Print don't quote your anti national thought that as unconventional thought in future. ❌❌✌️✌️🇮🇳🇮🇳
But imagine when all countries around don’t play with you.. you have nothing to trade. LoL
@@fladeann9348 world is bound to play with a country of 1.3 billion population. Lol.
@@rh2400 I am sure that you don't have first hand experience in International Trade.
@@fladeann9348 Sir, International Trade runs on the strength of innovation and good product. For that we need domestic market. Maruti and Hyundai were allowed to rule Indian market. Now both are world leader in Small Car. We need 100 such companies.
India's premium export is services/software.
RCEP doesn't include those, so it won't have been that beneficial to us either.
also pharma IP issue
Wouldn't the poor people have benefitted from cheap Chinese products. Remember it is because of China we have this much internet penetration in India.
True
@@YS-hl1hy at the cost of fucking up indian smartphone companies like lava, micromax, karbon mobile etc
I know they had crap products but you know how Chinese dumping strategy has screwed our domestic industry?
This is one of the most important reason why we are facing such huge unemployment crisis suddenly
Right after the Chinese entry during 2014 and growing rapidly with cheap internet from jio
Killing our own electronics industries
Our industries aren't competitive enough for now ,
If we sign up for rcep , we will become dumping grounds for china meanwhile our domestic industries will die
This is exactly will happen to Asean countries like Philippines , Cambodia ,Malaysia , indonesia etc
This deal is only profitable for manufacturing powers like Japan, south korea , Vietnam and china
The rest Asean countries will become dumping grounds and will be completely dependent on china economically meanwhile there will be a huge crisis of employment due to the trade deficit
@@YS-hl1hy they just signed up because it's the easiest way to avoid recession for now
But they forgot that it will do immense damage to their own industries on the long run
Meanwhile, south korea ,Vietnam , Japan and China will flourish
South korea and Japan will get the rich Chinese domestic market
While china and Vietnam will have the monopoly in the markets of other Asean countries because most Asean countries can't afford expensive japanese or South Korean made products
I fully agree with Gupta ji 's Conclusion.
Indian industries have never allowed Competition..
We r playing a game of capitalism with socialistic blood
What do you mean?
@@cameraman1234567890a
Look at the schemes man
Sounds right for this situation
We got bad parts of both
@Maz that never happens
That is a wrong anecdote
Yeah man we are becoming more conservative
Watching this from North America and you’re a gem with journalism analysts with no bias with your views. Thank you so much for your videos!
How very informative, especially for people like me who have grown with all the wrong information
He has a bit of Left orientation
But in RCEP there is catch, China is largest benificary that is national security threat. (they turn our neighbors against us, they build project on our land all these bc of not balanced trade)❌❌❌
India🇮🇳 have bilateral, trilateral trade agreements with many countries (tariff reduced in that way) ✌️✌️🇮🇳
And Print don't quote your anti national thought that as unconventional thought in future. ❌❌✌️✌️🇮🇳🇮🇳
Yeah he is doing very good job. But his message should reach out to the majority of people.That will have a positive effects in our society.
2 cents:
Simple!
More Trade -> Less Taxes
Less Trade -> More Taxes
The actual part starts at 5:07
Bro when he is giving content...and have right to do so🙏
@@m4st3rm1nd9 well if you had your way wouldn't you do the same thing? Advertising is necessary, stop being so self centered and narcissistic
A smart person is he who accepts his ignorance instead of yapping about something he knows nothing about ,Shekhar sir is humble enough to admit that he does not know much about the subject ,this is why you command respect sir . Nevertheless an insightful episode. Keep up the good work !
Why is there so much noise for RCEP when India is already in free trade agreements with most of South Asian countries
Yes. Review of current FTAs plus new FTAs with US, EU, Aus-NZ should be the way forward.
It's a matter of strategic trade partnerships mate.
And these FTAs are hotbed of Chinese dumping using fudged country of origin
Noise because China now effectively controls the world's largest trading block. This RCEP also shows the hollowness of Japanese and Australian opposition to Chinese imperialism. It's a wake up call for India that despite being Asia's 3rd largest economy and World's biggest free market, it still doesn't have enough bargaining power.
Moreover, India now faces another challenge. All the talks of companies moving out of China to India stands still, as India ceded it's seat in RCEP (world's biggest trading block) now every major corp would obviously include RCEP factor in its relocation.
@@dwightschrute5979 good joke
Wow! Shekhar Sir... You are in such great form at the moment that you can fill in for both Virat and Rohit on the Australia tour 😊
🤣🤣🤣 the real 3d player though
I felt that today's episode lacked more detailing abt RCEP...and was just more about free markets and capitalism
Yes, surprised with the lack of information on the topic
that is shekerji rants about BJP in disguise
Spot on!! This episode lacked details and numbers. lacked nuanced. Did not provide a solid response or objections of the anti RCEP forces. Seemed more of an advertisement for globalization and neoliberal view point on the trade.
It would be helpful for viewers to know that while China is the biggest economy in this trade grouping, China is one of the biggest practitioner of the protective trade. Moreover, all of the companies are state owned or has straight cash flow from the central bank. The reason China is rich today is b/c of the dirty capitalism and greed of the western corporations.
Shekhar Gupta is a very good story teller. Let me sum up in 1 line, " by staying out of RCEP, Modi is taking India to pre 1991". To say this he used 20 minutes that also with out related logic. Now I add 2 points:
1. In your channel Prof. Ila Pattanaik had explained why it's fine for India to be out of RCEP. I guess shekhar has not listend to her.
2. Listen to Sanjeeb Sanyal : He explained why India is not going back to protectionism even opting out of RCEP.
Shekhar said India has FTA with all Asian nations who r part of RCEP. This is contradictory. If India has FTA with all these nation except China, then how come coming out of RCEP will hurt India. He does not explain this.
Good!!
Where can I get Sanjeev Sanyal’s views on this topic please ?
@@rakeshjinsi9279 ua-cam.com/video/Y5FQIUaU4Kk/v-deo.html
@@satapathyrk thanks a lot 🙏
We are already in tade deficit in China
which enjoy a trade surplus of 70 billion$ for various products like phones, TV , laptops,chargers, many cheap plastic items during diwali etc. Isn't it enough competition for Indian industries to grow? please support if anyone agrees with me.
I love the manner in which Mr. Gupta acknowledges the research and efforts of the younger journalists who do a lot of the spade work. Only a great team cash produce such excellent analysis and this behaviour goes a long way in shaping leadership in India.
Once Again Shekhar ji you have proven that in the age of partisanship in the media, The Print has stood head and shoulders above the rest. Fantastic analysis as usual.
Hi Rajeep. Thank you for being a loyal supporter of ThePrint.
Sir, please make a video on Power discoms in India. Why is that the cost of production of electricity is quoted much cheaper in India as compared to China yet the end user is charges much higher. And even then the discoms post a loss everytime and need frequent bailouts by the govt.
Also, I think it's stupid India didn't join RCEP. Our dairy industry deserves to be destroyed if it can't compete with New Zealand. Services I agree could have been a part but India is just being left behind this way. Our Act-East policy, the Quad are all made useless by China by RCEP. Another failure for India on economical, diplomatic and security front.
When Indian inefficient industry gets destroyed by competition, it will cause massive unemployment in a short time and politicians will lose votes
I want CTC on discoms
I was doing my Business Management course when economy opened up and there were huge debate about end of Industries and return of "East India company". after nearly 3 decades India is doing better than a Hindu growth rate. Competition will kill Industries but will also give rise to new Indian competition to the world
Good to see India not participating the RCEP! No India no troubles! Now India is on your own!
20-25 mins daily is booked for CTC.
But in RCEP there is catch, China is largest benificary that is national security threat. (they turn our neighbors against us, they build project on our land all these bc of not balanced trade)❌❌❌
India🇮🇳 have bilateral, trilateral trade agreements with many countries (tariff reduced in that way) ✌️✌️🇮🇳
1.5x
This is a common mistake that a lot of people are making. RCEP is not about avoiding comptition. RCEP is about giving Indian industry a chance. We did the same thing that SG is suggesting for our electronics and we had a flood of cheap Chinese electronics in India which demolished Indian players. Also, not because of better products but because of the cheap capital and artificial currency depriciation of China. Courtesy of which we still cant make our own processor chips.
We avoided the same mistake with automobiles and today we have a thriving competitive market in all fields of automobiles. Indian companies are competing woth the best products out there.
Creative destruction is not about just having competition. Its also about having all players on the same level. No wealthy country in the world has become so woth zero tarrifs. Read the book called ' Bad Samaritans'. China, US, UK everybody have protected their industry for some time to come on a level playing field.
We also have to keep in mind that we have a strong domestic economy to make. It cant happen merely on the back of imported cheap products. It is necessary for Indian industry to develop. We cant compare ourselves directly with Asian countries like Singapore and SK.
Current efforts need to be seen from a different lens. Its not about protectionism. Its about building a strong domestic industry. It doesnt discourage competition but leverages our size to compell international players to compete by making in India, which was not the case during the licence raj
Gupta ji has already liked 3 'first view' comments. He knows how to keep his viewers glued.
This is why I contribute to the Print every month. Grateful for such material.
You are one of the most authentic and credible voice I can find today on any matter from trade to defence to political matters to film to melody and even to IPL.
Yes he is the new age guru for all the illiterates of this country 😊
Few things I wish to bring it to your notice.
1. Modi Govt. has not reversed any liberal reforms, it's only with China and no other contry.
2. I am into the Import and Export andI fully agree with the policies of Modi Govt. China didn't have level playing policies. Capitalism with communist policies is a deadlier combination where govt. interference is very high.
3. I have watched Indian businesses particularly traders misusing.
Result was evident 50 billion trade deficit.
Even though we liberalised our economy not enough was done or due to corruption enough could be done to promote the Indian businesses. I fully agree with the views of Ms. Illa. China is using trade as a weapon which India can't afford to ignore.
My full support to Modi govt.for not joining RCEP.
I see this one cut the clutter is all about free trade.
Finally!! I have been waiting for these.
I think you are confused. Protectionism is when you do not allow the foreign companies to manufacture in India. They do not make in India when they can simply export to India.
One the most impactful cut the clutters!! In fact..The 'push child into water to learn swimming' line should be played again and again on speakers across all chowrastas in the country!!!
Corrupt African and Latin American countries did it, look how awesome the result has been for them!
@@subhadityasen5486 Opening up economies?1
@@bondinthepond Yes going neoliberal without having competitive manufacturing.
@@subhadityasen5486 So do you think we are not ready for competition yet, and considering the way we are, we won't be able to survive the competition?
Let me use a simple (but somewhat ridiculous) analogy to put my point across -
Assume this deal is an exam!
We obviously haven't prepared for the exam!
Ideally, we should be prepared for every exam! Obviously, we are not prepared! Let's say we partied too much!!
So should we go to the exam hall and give an attempt or should we choose to not even attempt it?
If we sit for the exam, there is a chance we could pass since we know how to give exams and we are not entirely stupid, we were just lazy!
Let's say we fail, we would become more responsible for the next exam, or figure out something else after!
If we don't sit for the exam, we will never pass!
IMHO, We are reactive people, not pro-active people! Hence, the stick helps us more than carrots!!
Shekhar should ideally not venture into technical economic issues like RCEP. He should have conducted a Q&A session with Illa and he would have got all his wrong issues, ideas and concepts cleared. The answers to many questions are highly nuanced and conditional on many assumptions and factors. That said, India has taken a right decision as of now to remain out of RCEP. But India must get ready in next 3 to 5 years by way of massive structural reforms to do world class manufacturing and export. In the meanwhile, existing trade agreement with ASEAN is good enough but we should get the deals with USA and Europe done quickly.
India needs more journalists like you sir. ❤️
@john cena he is a centrist
More journalists like Jyoti Malhotra 😆
@john cena the guy just talked for half an hour about how important free trade and opening the economy is and talked about all the good points of capitalism. How on earth is he a communist? Do you even know the ideologies of communism?
@john cena ??
@john cena But he supported the scrapping of the Roshni act
Thank you Mr Gupta and The Print for making an Indian liberal perspective on these important regional and global issues available on YT.
Good vibes from Sweden, keep it up!
ThePrint is a biased platform and hated by many in India fyi...
I am surprised that those paragraphs are the Government of India documents.
Everyone knows what needs to be done. No one has the political will to do it
There is talent in India but NOT where it matters, right at the top that is.
@@subhxsish or any incentive
Shekhar ji, nice presentation. But I feel yours is a superficial and a simplistic assessment. If a to z imports are allowed too suddenly into India there will be unsustainable shock to the economy because of sudden inundation with cheap imported goods. The key is to smartly regulate imports and exports and emphasize on transfer of manufacturing technology. You will agree that Mr Modi has a good sense of business and is not naive.
It is all an art of striking the right balance. The dynamic of a vast & complex country like India has to be different than say Cambodia or Vietnam especially when there is a provenly dangerous Captain in the RCEP.
For Modi it is like making curd, right temperature and right duration and no shaking. Do it fast and you get a spoil. Thanks
It is an irony of India that it was the centre left party which started a more capitalistic approach and the right wing party that is going for more protectionism.
91 mai center left?
True left and true right from western POV does not exist in India, so no use saying terms like left and right to describe Indian politics
They did it because bamboo was in their asshole in 1991 otherwise nobody had any commitment to economic liberalism or free markets.
@@shubhamsagarsingh9451 lpg wad done by manmohan -rao... 91 i think it was vp sing . Never heard anything big about him
@@pragyanshsingh6093 what did he do uphold liberalisation?
Gupta ji, some time free trade might ruins small scale industries and it happens in USA over time. Thousands of workers lost their jobs. Coming to your analysis on PV’s(1990s) open market and that time China not a WTO member. The industries survived with other markets that time. China came with bang in 2001 to WTO and some sector industries didn’t survive in these 20 years in many countries. Some how few Indian industries survived with these so called protectionism I believe. Your comparison seems orange(1990s) and apples(2020). Your comment on this plz?
I disagree with SG. had it not been protectionism, China would never be able to create Alibaba, Huwaei, Tencent.
Totally agree with you on this.... SG argument cannot explain this... On the other extreme the monopoly created by the FANGs in a totally open market like the US also defeats his hypothesis ...
@@0609Bhuwan FANG monopoly is created by their quality of service, not because US governement protected them.
Pritam most protectionist country in the world is North Korea. Maybe next big corporations are coming out from there. 😂😂
@@nishitd FANG had the first mover advantage with a large domestic market. They would not need protection. It is the companies in emerging economies that need protection. China's tech companies are now creating world class product because they were not eaten up by FANG.
What SG is confusing is the impact of license-quota raj coupled with outdated business regulation with the impact of unrestricted free trade.
Good luck for The Print to grow further
Have been an avid follower of the content of The Print.
I have a suggestion for making Cut The Clutter in a multilingual manner especially coming up atleast with the same content in 3-4 major languages spoken in country to expand the audience base ,thus improving the content dissipation.
Thanks
I have reached the END and was still waiting for reasons why we had to step out of RCEP... Rather the video has much explained the PROS and CONS of being part of trade (which is quite evident for any one following this topic)
Seems this is a topic drilled down with a specific vested interest without revealing the clear picture...
After all, point being made is as if we dont want trade at all with anyone which is definitely not the case...
Out of so many comments... this is the only one which sounds about right! Looks like logic is lost to this world SG is building a bunch of idiotic followers in the name of unbiased journalism!
After investing 28 minutes in listening you I only get a sense that what you said in the beginning was absolutely right- - " one should not try to wade into those subjects of which he may not have sufficient knowledge". You kept on telling stories and scratching perifiral surface without ever getting into the heart of the subject you intended to declutter.
Can I get heart from you, I am watching since 2017 when I was in 10th Std.
Oho great mate🐢🐱
Great👍
When i was in 10th i didn't even knew much about UA-cam🤣
Which college did you reach then.
Hi Shreyas! Do keep tracking us!
My very best, Shreyas...good luck always...sg
Was waiting for this one. Thanks Shekhar Ji. Completely agree that India should have participated and tried to become more competitive instead of shying away.
Contradicting M/s Ila's views in print. I tend to agree with her views
That's what happens when an organization is not driven by any specific ideology
The very immediate next video suggested is "Why India is right not to join RCEP trade deal" by ThePrint's Economics expert. Not that you cant have difference of opinion within ThePrint's team, but i'd rather believe an economist who knows the nuances -- instead of just 'free-trade = goood | tariff = baaad'.
Am subscribing today. Would have liked to have an App. Done know what hey it’s so difficult? Like your journalism though may not agree with you always. Haven’t seen anyone else covering foreign relations and analysis. Appreciate
Hi! Thank you for subscribing. Do keep writing in.
Thank you. We will have an app in the course of time for sure...sg
The amount of knowledge I have gained from cut the clutters about varied topics , almost feels criminal to watch it for free . SG tussi great ho sirji!
"Why india is right not to join RCEP"
Ilanomics The Print.
Please respond SG Sir
Basically:
1. Fix infrastructure
2. Fix judicial system
3. Open up economy
RCEP gives 20 years time to bring tariffs down to zero. In 20 years of we can't sufficiently ensure point 1 and 2, what are our elected representatives doing?
@@prajwalshetty9809 Jumla!!!!
Well I think that's the beauty of @theprint everyone gets a seat at the table and as an audience we get better informed by listening to every side and as for opinion an informed citizen can and should form his own opinion.
@ isn't bureaucracy just a tool. People's priorities turn into political pressure, and political pressure can bring change for better or worse. Liked Gadkari's speech on bringing in a more merit based system there, hope some positive action is taken.
@@prajwalshetty9809 minting personal money, hiking pensions as always
Just added myself to the list of subscribers! Cut the clutter & National interest are like my knowledge tonics! It’s honest, comprehensive, straight forward & most importantly unbiased. Even though I don’t necessarily agree with everything but I do believe it’s honest & sincere. So happy to support true journalism!
Hindalco and Grasim are in NIFTY index however.
True bro👍
Yea so is Voltas on nse
@@jerincherian2489 Being listed on NSE and being a part of NIFTY (50 Companies Index) are 2 different things
yes. I day trade them !!. Such a big mistake
Hindalco still exists on the stock msrket and - acquired a $8bn Novelis aluminium business in America. Grasim was restructured multiple times in the last 20 years. Bad research. Can't blame Shekharji - markets and economics not his areas of expertise
The fact that Bajaj did better in finance sector than automobiles which they were doing for years tells you the appalling condition of our manufacturing sir .
First make a Ranji trophy competition , before you select the players for Australia's tour of India .
That's really sad.. It also tells us about the apalling condition of Indian education system and lack of interest/funding in research. We could not innovate and compete with international products. On the other hand China managed to copy their technology.. But later China also invested a humongous amount of money into research and development. We used to regard Chinese products to be of lesser quality, but not anymore. :(
So finally BJP acknowledges and gives due credit to Congress for their contribution in 91's liberalisation 😀
@Gulshan Kumar so BJP, infact BJP now going back to another license Raj
@@TheOpposition you want to be dumped with chinese goods more than we already are? india's manfacturing sector is far behind any of the country in rcep that is bcoz noone focused on infrastructure for so many years and people here are more interested in trading than manufacturing but it is slowly changing , i think india in few years after improving its manufacturing sector a bit will join rcep
@@madtitanoboa462 his name is Rahul. You know that
@@satyajitchattopadhyayyt 😂 I Pitty युअर Existence, यु Moron,
@@madtitanoboa462 frankly who doesn't want entrepreneurs to thrive? But instead of building protectionist attitude we should look in to ways to strengthen our manufacturing capabilities, frankly this is what SG is putting forward. Cursing old govt is really a regressive, back then Indians were less educated and poor, they needed protection, this is not the case in today's modern age, when information is at fingertips, it far more easy for a policies framework that can transform economy. So far dearth of quality policy reform have a adverse impact on our country, when lowly Bangladesh is beating us in many important indicators and yet we are choosing to ignore. Therefore policy paralysis of the current regime is far more worrisome compare to govt 30 years back. After 7 years, the growth is incredibly distorted.... We could withstand 2008 economic slowdown but this pandemic and resulted slowdown is too much for a current regime.
It's a Universal Truth.
You cannot run away from the Competition because it will never end. Competition is what Differentiates Hard Working and Talented People from Lazy and Irresponsible People.
Unless Competition snatches your Happiness, it is a good thing.
18:00 the document is Economic Survey of 2020 put together by CEA K Subramanian
Hi Sir, I cannot pay 500 INR per month right now. But I'm paying 100 INR every month through direct bank transfer. I will pay 200 INR from next month. ThePrint is turning out to be a synonym for high-quality journalism. Good going SG sir. Will keep supporting you :)
Only cronies have changed but still crony capital system is intact.
This is my own quote-
Optimism is good but prudence is more important.
While we may feel enthusiastic and optimistic about India will do better economically but past statistics shows us we aren't competent enough, forget about China even small countries like S.korea, Vietnam is doing better than us.
Not joining RCEP is a Prudent decision.
Indian industry is still heavily dependent on MSME......they can't produce at cheapest rate with no innovation......we want monopoly like RIL, Tata, Mahindra, Adani etc to grow more. Then we will be able to compete internationally.
If you have a monopoly then you don't care about improving quality.
Because you have no competitors so you make bad products. Then you can't compete with China.
To compete you have to break the monopolies and face the world.
journalist teaches scientists in ISRO
journalist teaches polititions
journalists teaches doctors
journalists teaches police
Journalists teaches economists too
15:33 That’s one spooky smile...
👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇Shekhar's AMAZING videos always need to be put at 1.5X speed. They should instead speed up the video before uploading.
Yes Shekar you guessed right iam smart
You might be a journalist but for me you are one of my best teacher..!
SG....want to know how much have we lost in manufacturing because of open trade policy since 1991. I think we should make more progress on reducing our red tapes before we throw open ourselves to the world.
True. We should not do FTA with china until we gain technological leadership in manufacturing.
There's no point in trading with the dragon. They are only interested in buying mining or agricultural commodities but no industrial products from anyone. If you have some product to sell in their market that's technically superior then it will be copied. No point just keep the trade with them to as low as possible
2 cents:
Reality - > Lack of infrastructure/Red tape + corruption/Risk taking mindset for innovation.
India simply cannot manufacture for self, forget exports.
So instead we should Sign rcep and becoming dumping ground for china ? ..
@@sushv6209 I think he meant without any proper infra and manufacturing other countries will simply takeover our domestic industries with almost free imports..maybe
@@sushv6209 yes, if we become dumping ground. Then only politicians will be forced to do things, industries will start dying then govt will be forced to do reforms. Do you think govt will do anything now ? No, it will just go back to doing nothing. And in the end we will be left behind.
Shekhar Sir, I am big fan of your "unconventional takes" on different subjects. Recently, I was reading a book named Tyranny of Merit which eloquently argues that we live in an age of winners and losers - events like Brexit or the rise of Trump are pushbacks against this culture of meritocracy. I am a big votary of competition and appreciate the concept of "constructive destruction". My question to you is this - how do we strike balance as a society?
When shekhar gupta says UPSC , then we all smirk .
And UPSC pple already knew where those ‘creative destruction’ lines belonged 😄
@@shreyasmohite yes bro ,,,its true chapter 3 economic survey this year
UPSC is a big time waster.
@@Nintendo_fanboy87 thikai yaar, tumhara nai huva toh kya, kisika toh hoga na 😒
@@shreyasmohite where?
Serious upsc aspirants knew the answer after hearing 1st two sentences 😂😂😂😂 - this year's Economic survey
Former Foreign Secretary Shyam saran sir is of the same opinion what you have hinted shekhar sir
But
Although neo-liberalism is good for national GDP but no one can deny that it has created huge income inequality across the globe
BJP shouldn't be called the "right". They are religious conservatives, and socialist in economics
There is nothing socialist about modi’s economics.
More like Crony Capitalism with a side of mild socialist-ish policies
@@gurbaazsingh9353 my bad... It should be "communist"
You are right.. there is no a absolute right wing party in India...nehruvian so cialism is a curse that is deeply entrenched in our system,academia, establishment,... beaurocracy doesn't want to change too as capitalism lessens their chances of corruption, influence and power ....the all powerful beaurocracy has to be cut size in India
@@geetaliification do you know what those words even mean? I mean have you even read a thing of Marx or Lenin ecc...
First of all love your #cuttheclutter and respect for your media to alllow different points of view on this topic i.e. Illanomics and this episode have different viewpoints.
But the problem in this FTA that no one discusses are the non tariff barriers
1. China subsidizes it's industries which exports to other countries including service sector. Democratic countries like India lose out in this situation because India do not subsidize it's private sector but let's free market competition take it's course. China does not even allow google and facebook. Indian companies TCS, WIPRO do not even get access to China's market either
2. China puts non tariff barriers to protect it's domestic industries. It does not let fair competition take place in it's own country.
3. China devalues it's currency.
4. China steals R&D information from foreign companies and
5. most dangerous of all it uses it's access to it's market and economy as a weapon
This FTA will just makes the previous points more larger in it's size.
India has seen the long term impact of this and have stayed out of RCEP. Long term effects will be mostly felt in poorer nations like Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines and somewhat Australia too. the winners will be CHINA, Japan Vietnam and too a less extent South Korea.
India will not only lose out in the manufacturing sector which it was willing to bear but India's strongest areas like Pharma and Service will not have access as well. So this may look like a blunder from SG's point of view and it will create economic hardship for India in the short term but in the long term it will be good for Indian economy as more and more Asean countries will feel the ill effects of the FTA in the upcoming years and will choose bilateral agreements with India.
India should also fast track FTA's with US EU and UK as quickly as possible and should go for bilateral FTA's with JAPAN Australia And other South American countries.
e.g. India already has a FTA with Chile and is expanding on it
Beautiful background, Shekhar. I really appreciate your aesthetic sense.
Dr Swamy explained better why we should not join RCEP, 1.due product list 2.terms and conditions 3.people exchange not allowed
Hi SG, great analysis.
One question:- Why is the government then going back?
What is in their mind ?
Because Modi is India's biggest Socialist.... who confuses cronyism with Capitalism
We need a stronh Economist in the Government.
Why service deleted from goods and service which was present in first document, it is not mentioned here.
Shekhar chacha I am more than happy to contribute but only for you,Alex philip, and mr. d n singh. I don't want my money to be spend on the print , web portal.
Why?
@@khyatisharma8944 becose rest of their journalists are completely biased and prints reports with incomplete data/truth.
what the gov. needs to understand is that a free Trade Agreement works both ways and through signing the RCEP india and its products get a free access to the Chinese market which has the worlds largest middle class today. china had actually long restricted india’s products from the chinese market because indian products were much more cheaper than chinese products and by signing the RCEP china wont be able to restrict indian products anymore. but instead we chose to walk away from such a grand opportunity. after 1991 india,s exports went from 10-20 billion to the current 350 billion dollars that it is today and by only allowing cheap imports can companies get the time to set up there industries in a market in the first place. Plus the world’s largest exporters in the world are also the world’s largest importers. everyone talks about china having a exports of 3 trillion $ but dont look at the fact that china’s imports stand at 2.5 trillion$ which will only increase. so the day we come out of the crony capitalist propoganda propelled by this government we can get our economy growing again. how can u become a global superpower if u cant manufacture for the world.
UPSC Janta hit a like 🙏
Benefits of seeing good journalism is that when SG says "It didn't work for us" at 6:10 then we just take his word for granted. We don't have to go and do a Phd on Indian economics or trade history.
Sir will you talk about political situation in tamil nadu once pls
@@kavinkumar4868 I'm sure they have correspondents in TN who can provide accurate information and context.
@@kavinkumar4868 Not wise to keep such assumptions.
@@kavinkumar4868 you are wrong leftist reporters have more knowledge abt TN due to Dravidian politics and dmk close aid.
I m sure that the team with print are more than capable to asses the political situation in tamil nadu , the state is in the cusp of change.also I trust the print not the paid media .
BJP is coming but but but they can rule only once, 2026-2031
I am reminded of “What is TRUTH?” Pontius Pilate’s question still remains an enigma and no answer. Does it apply to honest journalism too?
When I will get a job.. I wil pay.. Till then sry for delay
Hi Manu! Thanks for writing in.
You rightly pointed out ..creative destruction is integral to a progressive economy.
Most of the companies in the past were owned by a limited no. of industrialists and their families. Many of them survived under govt. policy protection and had no incentive to modernise and use technological advances to improve productivity and quality.
While destruction is a frightful word ...creative destruction implies enterpreneurship is on the rise, however the management skills and dynamism required for continuous transformation to leverage technological and market changes are still wanting in order for companies to survive over the long haul.
bombay dyeing is listed at NSE. part of Wadia group
He is talking about being part of index not about listing .
Sekar ji, we seems to have lost mfg advantage and replaced them with service sector stars.. we need to have mfg and service both.. eventhough US is having a great economy loss of mfg capabilities is a potential natural security issue ...
India bans more Chinese apps include Ali Express. Plz make video analysis on this and are these moves enough to impose cost on China.
Good One! The best part of this story is that even as the Government knows what needs to be fixed, Inertia seems to rule! Keep going team!
I felt like video was ending at 5th minute but starts after that :p
You can carry on your work without bothering about the left or right. Congratulations to 'the print' for NOT making it to the list of media houses of Mr. Prashant Bhushan's liking. It already qualifies you as an unbiased organization.
First off all Please stop comparing manufacturing and services sector. 1991 did hurt local manufacturing !
Maruti which was protected and forced to make products in india , then eventually partner with suzuki , had legs to stand on to complete when 1991 happened .
I think we first need , domestic competition , while we amend lands laws, labour laws , red tape . And when they are strong open it up .
I agree what you said but our infrastructure doesn’t offer much to entrepreneurs. If our energy charges are 50% costlier then China how can it make products cheaper then China. Our railway transportation of goods is already overwhelmed and roads our not built for the existing traffic how can we match the production at the rate of China.
So our bitter reality is to make product for our consumers and work hard on building our infrastructure.
RCEP ko discuss krna chahiye thaa na.
Everyone agrees with standard globalization free trade agreements
SG Sir.. you are the only one who can be trusted in all UA-camrs.. because you only very honestly tell the bitter truths👍.. lots of love and respect for Sir🙏..
Guptaji Please can you make CTC about relation between pseudo-liberal and secular with rightwing Islam(anti Liberal ideology). Especially non-political like in media or entertainment (self proclaimed intellectuals). Across western world US ,west and north Europe, INDIA(only non western country). Thanks if you can make it.
Thanks Guptaji because of this ctc i remembered Abid Hussain committee for small and medium scale industries and " Na khatam hone wali kahani" written by Vp singh🙏.
It's the evening time and the Santa clause arrives
Shekhar Sir, most of the literature in economics favours free trade but with respect to India, protectionism is required on SMSE (Small and Middle Scale Enterprises) . All your examples are of large scale companies and banking sectors but most vulnerable ones are the small businesses which are back bone of a thriving economy ( citing example of West Germany - all their protected SMSEs post WW2 are now multinationals). Chinese dumping of low value, bulk goods (e.g. plastic items) is gradually killing our small scale companies which currently have their market only within India. These needs to be protected in my view.
Coupta ji is on chinese payroll. He didn't talk about destruction caused by dumping done by CCP owned Chinese companies
Idiots like you need not give there garbage opinion. Better not watch it if you are just gonna ad homenim, such shit is Toxic.
@@dev.0122
Ha e a look at yourself first and then your comment
Sir wonderful demonstration nd explaination but one of the major reason to walk out of rcep was to safeguard our dairy industry bcoz if dairy business wud hv been exposed to imports then how wud our poultry farmers who are so small that some even own 2 cattles or 3 cattles compete wid the huge conglomerates in the dairy busines....we hv crores of such poultry farmers....if rcep wud hv been signed ...who wud buy our indian milk den...we wud just buy foreign milk nd dairy products nd indian dairy farmers wud go bankcrupt.....while we were negotiating other countries forced us to open up our dairy industry nd thats where we walked out