The DOE loan, while it sounded like it was for startups is for anything but startups or at least new startups. It is somewhat ironic that big companies can get the loan and they can afford not to have the loan but companies like Aptera struggle. If you think of how many Corvettes are made each year (yes a completely different beast but a unique vehicle) they only make about 22k vehicles (every year). Aptera has some 44,000 pre-orders. If only 15% of those pre-orders are converted sales, that is only a little more than 7,000 vehicles. If they take the price to $44K like you suggested they might, the number of actual orders will likely be in the area of 4,400. That would be hard for the DOE to justify a loan for. If Aptera keeps the LE in at $35K or less, they have a pretty good chance at a 25% conversion or 11,000 vehicles sold. DOE would need to see sustained purchase volume of 11,000 vehicles annually to likely even consider the loan.
Some great thoughts, thank you. If 15% conversion rate would likely still be adequate as long as the backlog stays strong. That would ensure continuous production, continuous cash flow, economic sustainability sufficient, and then qualify for the DOV loan. And, don’t forget the Tesla analogy I mentioned. Tesla produced about 1,000 cars when their DOE loan was approved. Charge on!
@@Rich1Rodriguezcongratulations on your marriage! Certainly this is a Worthy reason to be delayed in releasing videos. Appreciate your work and analysis.
Thank you for your insightful information. Aptera is definitely getting closer to production. Patiently waiting for my Aptera. Currently sitting in position #339 of the Leaderboad. Time to start figuring out how I may be able to drive my Aptera to Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada and how I can register it here. Any ideas would be appreciated. Happy Veteran's Day to all in the USA and Happy Remembrance Day to all Canadians.
It is a fabulous product 1000 miles is actually ridiculous. Figure out how many times you have to go to the bathroom and eat over the course of.14 hours! 400 miles is just fine for me. Charge on !
@@Rich1Rodriguez The use case for some could be using the battery for V2G or V2L connections for emergency use house or job site power, or even for camping trips off grid. I agree that the 400 mile range is a sweet spot for most use.
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey video, and please consider subscribing if you have not already done so. The music credits are at the end of the video, see around 18:31. I met Orlando at the unveiling of the gamma, little did I know he’s a fabulous musical artist. Charge on!
Interesting advice for Chris about Reg D. The comparisons to Tesla are curious to me because of the differences in initial pricing between Tesla and Aptera even in the similar down market conditions we are in now. The average anticipated initial price you are quoting may be a hard pill for a first time car buyer. Not knowing that demographic of the pre orders makes me wonder what the conversion rate will be. As far as new possible customers, the initial response to a three wheeler could be an issue early on. So I a can see that there may be a much slower ramp up, much like Tesla but for different reasons. I loved the car even before it was an electric. Am invested and believe in its efficiencies however, just about everyone I share the image with, first draws back at the image of a three wheel. I wonder how that will translate through initial adoption. Great analysis Rich! Cheers!
Thanks for the poignant comments. Given the number of pre-orders, even if we have something like a 15% conversion factor, I anticipate this to be a fabulously successful vehicle and company. Data from Kelley Blue Book puts the average cost of a new car at $48,008 as of March 2023. So the Aptera may, in fact, be price competitive given the features the car offers. Charge onl.
I listen, and always come away "richer." You have helped to give me the strength of belief in Aptera to invest all the way into the top 100 Accelerators. More for the growth than the two digit personalization. Thanks, and happy holidays!
I was a fan of the first Aptera; and the current Aptera is so much better, and is constantly being improved. Enjoy your financial comments, though don’t agree with all your assumptions. Don’t understand why other companies have gotten vastly more investment compared to the revolutionary Aptera.
I was also a fan of the first Aptera and was surprised when they lost the X-Prize due to equipment failure. But those things do happen. Agree, this iteration is far superior. and the cofounders now are seasoned enough to recognize they have to stick with it to the end, and not hand the reins over it to someone else. Kind of like what happened to Apple Computer when Steve Job left. Company went to hell. When he came back they flourished once again. It is always tremendously difficult to raise money, and especially for a new car manufacturing company. Tesla, again, is a good example. They almost went bankrupt multiple times as a new car manufacturer. Now they are one of the world’s most innovative and largest EV manufacturers, and this did not come easy - in the early years there was insufficient funding. But they got over it. I believe Aptera will be a similar case. Charge on!
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey, and thank you for your comments. This was my first time using a Teleprompter and I’m still getting used to it. My speed was also something I noticed, and I will try to pick up delivery next edition. Thanks again!
Thanks for the insights Rick, but priced at $44K? Too much even with the energy cost savings. Most popular model is 400 mi range. This number seems way off (high) to me.
Fair enough! But consider: The average cost of new cars is now well over $48,000-up almost $6,000 from two years ago and about $10,000 from September 2020, according to Kelley Blue Book. The Aptera will likely come in lower, but we don’t know precisely yet - I was just using a guesstimate and from the big scheme of things that won’t change valuation much. Charge on!
@@Rich1Rodriguez the average price of a new vehicle might be $48,000 but I don't see the average American for the sake of argument, purchasing a $48,000 vehicle. That is not affordable to the average consumer. Salaries have increased but not at the rate that makes a $44,000 400 mile Aptera affordable to the average consumer. The base 400 mile Aptera had been advertised at $29K and the LE is now $33,200. If the LE ends up much more than $36,000, they will not even see 15% reservation to purchase conversion. In my view there are 2 significant items missing in the LE that would make it as efficient as claimed. 1) Heat pump 2) Heated seats. The volume of air within the Aptera is significant and to heat that with resistive heat is not efficient at all. Also the weight of the LE went from 1800 lbs to 2200 according to Chris Anthony. If we assume the drag coefficient has dropped to 0.14 and the weight of the vehicle is 2200 lbs with a passenger/cargo weight of 370 lbs the 400 mile mark comes in at 58 mph not 66 mph. Of course the EPA uses 48 mph but the 100Wh/mile claim comes in at 58 mph. Has Aptera ever stated the velocity of the vehicle at 100Wh/mile? Not that I am aware of and I have been following them since 2007.
@@Rich1Rodriguez while the average new car is indeed $48K, its still represent a 4 wheel vehicle with seating for at least 4 passengers. The Aptera market is a bit different (3 wheels only) and some may consider it limiting with only 2 seaters. Don't get me wrong, I am a proponent for Aptera but with the announcement for lower cost EVs from Tesla and the tsunami from the Chinese EVs (over the horizon), the higher cost is not the way to go.
If Aptera does it's manufacturing line appropriately, they may be able to spin up and get their 1,000th Aptera out within 6 months or even sooner. They should be using the PI versions to generate preliminary build instructions. This assumes they have a fairly good idea on how the manufacturing is split up and what is done at each station.
Thanks, again, for your comments. I suspect the number of build stations and the dwell time at each station may be adjusted as production starts to ramp. And yes, I agree, the PI's will be used to document the assembly process.
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey, and thank you for your comments. You are correct on the acceleration times. My sense is with the addition of the metal subframe and rollbar the vehicle got a little heavier. Hence the minor decrease in acceleration time. My current EV has a 6.5 second 0 to 60 acceleration, so I will still find Aptera acceleration time to be amazing. Charge on!
@@Rich1Rodriguez Rich, I think the main reason for the change is not a weight increase but moving the torque/rpm range down in the curve, and a somewhat lower peak HP value, which also increases the average efficiency some.
I am not comfortable with the comparison to Tesla. They have over 60% of the US EV market and are more than an EV manufacturer. Aptera is a small startup and not vertically integrated. They do have a great product and team. But the comparison is just not there. I believe their stock can IPO for more than the current price. But it is a bit too early to speculate on how much. And that's why they will wait for production to settle before the IPO is offered. They are playing it smart.
I agree the strategic decisions. Aptera is making have been very astute. Remember, as well, Tesla was not vertically integrated at the time they got the DOE loan and they had virtually 0% of the EV market share at the time. Tesla was the upstart. And I agree Aptera has a fabulous product and team. Charge on!
I can compare the Tesla of 2008 with present day Aptera, because I have seen both first hand. The company I worked for was across the street from Tesla, and we hired their motor engineers when Tesla had to lay them off. At the same stage, Aptera is both more financially stable and has a more mature and a much larger market product.
Cannot have sub 4 seconds acceleration with the 1000 miles Aptera. You have same motors but the 1000 miles Aptera would be much heavier due to much larger battery.
Thanks for watching My Aptera Journey video. You are correct, the 1,000 mile version will be slower off the line. I’m careful to say in the intro “… and on some models…”. Perhaps I can more clearly make this statement. Thanks so much, and Charge on!
Hello Rich, it was refreshing to see a new video from you. Always exciting to see your financial point of view with Aptera. Thank you for always explaining these advanced financial terms and definitions with such confidence and knowledge. 👍😀👍
Thank you for your kind words. I am constantly trying to improve the quality of my work. Studio lighting, new 4K video recording, HDR, video, recording, and new condenser microphones with 32 bit float recording, and a teleprompter. After my Aptera arrives, I will have to invest in multiple GoPro!
I think the Aptera conversion rate on the Aptera deposits will be much greater than 15%. I could be wrong, but I think it will be closer to 50-70?%, primarily because the people who put down their deposits really want the car. There will be some who no longer want it. But I understand you probably are being very conservative.
Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey. I believe the energy transition is the largest economic opportunity in 100 years. There is significant room from multiple players who offer fabulous products. Aptera Motors is one such company with their innovative and highly efficient transportation offering. Charge on!
Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey. Tesla is an interesting story, a story of struggle, really. “We can build this crazy electric car and people will be amazed with the performance.” Built with laptop batteries, they pulled it off to become the world’s leading EV manufacturer and forward thinking innovator. I have been in finance the last 15 years and I view bitcoin as a pyramid scheme. Blockchain technology I get. Bitcoin? Not so much. Aptera is such an innovative, efficient, and practical design it is likely to etch out a formidable spot in the market. One it hits the street, I believe sales will skyrocket… only production capabilities will constrain deliveries. Similar to Tesla. Watch this space. Change on!
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey video. I believe that we are on the path to a recession. I’m not sure exactly how this will unfold, but historically when the treasury yield curve is inverted for such a large amount and for such a long time as it is now, the results have been long and deep recessions. This too will pass. Charge on! I am not predicting anything, but just looking back at history and, I am very cautious about what history tells us. Take care, and Charge on!
I worked for a company that got a contract under Solyndra to supply the HVAC for a new plant they had won a contract for. We were going to put the energy use and performance data online in real time. When Solyndra objected, we immediately pulled the plug on the deal. Aptera is open, unlike what Solyndra was. That is a huge difference between the two companies.
@@n.brucenelson5920 Do you have verifiable performance data and costs for Aptera. Guys making electric carts on UA-cam are more transparent and honest.
I am glad you acknowledged the DOE loan qualifications. They were never serious about getting the loan, that is evident alone by how long they took to file it. However filing it gave a boost to the morale of the Aptera fans and one thing Aptera does well is in telling their fans what they want to hear and deftly waving off what they don't want to hear with some patronizing talk. So why do I think they will not get a DOE loan. Well outside the obvious, they are trying to market a three wheel two seat vehicle into a market where any car buyer who wants an EV can select from over fifty models in the US. Cap this off with the fact more than one automaker has stated their plans to sell an traditional EV car for under 30k, maybe as low as 25k, before end of 2025 and it the issue becomes more apparent. Plus we have to consider the original pricing on the Aptera of 33k is not likely to be close to its real cost given Chris's own comments that the switch to CPC substantially raised the costs. How much are you willing to pay for a Launch Edition? They won't comment on actual price likely because they know it will upset many with reservations and slow them even further. The only savings they have a chance with is batteries but he stated in July they did not have the supplier selected for the PI battery pack though there are many earlier claims EVE had been chosen. The elephant in the room is they (Chris recently repeated it) have a two year path to profitability. This is their admission the initial lot of Aptera will be sold at a loss. How much of a loss is not known. How many Aptera will be built during this period? This is very typical in the industry and Aptera cannot escape this even with their approach to manufacturing; worse they added a whole new logistics issue by having to ship near complete vehicles from Italy to California for final assembly. Vehicles in transit are not helping the bottom line and quite a few will have to be in flight so to speak to keep any assembly process in California active with any hopes of being profitable; as in the equipment and man power cannot be left waiting on shipping. So unless they get their angel investor I don't expect them to be around much longer, they certainly did not have the cash they needed ending June 30th having to push a lot of compensation to stock issuance. Worse was having to abandon Vista and pay a near 2m penalty along with all the money they lost moving there and out. That was their original solar production facility and future home of Elaphe per filings. I guess its fun to fantasize they could sell their shares and of course for far more than they currently manage. It does not make their offering Given that the Accelerator program did not turn out as they expected, they originally had a March 26th close date, and the slowing of new reservations the real danger is interest has peaked. To cap it off, until we get a price update from them all they have is renders and promises. A price update would demonstrate faith in their product, some proof they truly are going to be in production soon, and also respect for their fans. Nothing will piss off their fans more than to drop a price bomb on them at the last minute. Frankly I think they should aim much more upscale than they are now. Put the LE to 50k or more... actually numbered LE models should have a very high premium attached to them
Hello Andromedach - Thanks for your interest in the Aptera. I disagree with your statement "They were never serious about getting the loan." Have you ever filled out a government funding application? I have. They are exhaustive, and take gobs of time. The DOE is doing well by advising Aptera to complete all the milestones/gates prior to being eligible for the award. This is exactly how the process works. On how much I'm willing to pay for my Aptera? My last EV was in the 40's, and I suspect Aptera will be the same. Plus I'll have fabulous efficiency, solar charging, and all wheel drive - features my current car does not offer. I cannot tell you how many Aptera will be built in the first two years. The pre-order backlog is huge, so we will see how the ramp process goes. There is no information I have heard from Aptera they intend to operate at a loss, though ramping production may prove challenging due to learning ramp. The forthcoming DOE loan may well provide assets for more in-house vertical integration... and production cost reductions. Stop grants and options are not impactful to cash. In my view, the Accelerator program has been very successful, having raised some $23 million... and growing. I disagree with your statement' "until we get a price update from them all they have is renders and promises." The production intent vehicle is being fabricated as we speak. Thanks again for your interest in Aptera. Charge on!
@@artsmith103 Hi Art - Efficiency, performance, design solar charging, and innovation (e.g. in-wheel motors, composite body panels) - are all definitive hallmarks of Aptera.
@@Rich1Rodriguez Nearly none of your list has been demonstrated. It's shameful. Guys building electric carts on UA-cam are more honest and competent about quantifying performance.
Wake up. They only have 3 prototypes, haven't completed the design and are running out of money fast. They are not in production so your claims are false.
Hi Adrian - Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey video. Eyes. Wide. Open. I encourage you to review the video again in its entirety, I mention clearly they are not yet in production and have a couple years to go until they reach at least 1000 vehicles or so. I agree we cannot deny this simple fact. That said, production parts have been manufactured already in Italy, and are in process of being assembled. In my day job I look at financial performa every week, and I analyze their consistency and rationality. So this type of analysis is not new to me. The financial scenarios I presented are simply that, potential scenarios. it is unclear at this time which of the snow is more likely to move towards reality. Consider subscribing to this channel if you have not already, you can watch more of the Aptera car progress. If you’re in the western United States, I could swing by and show you my car after derives. All the best! = Rich =
You are wrong. I have seen more than "three prototypes" with my own eyes. They had more than that back in 2021 when my wife and I rode in one. They have almost doubled their cash position between the last two SEC reports, and are in far better shape than Tesla was in December of 2008. Production parts for the PI builds have already been made and validated. Aptera is a continuous improvement company, so the design will never be "completed" in the sense of traditional manufacturers and they won't have model years.
Thanks for your comments, and watching My Aptera Journey. When the first Iraq came about, I went long oil. When the Great Recession hit I shorted the market. So I learned how to make $ in up and down markets! As a side benefit, I’ve learned to be more unbiased in looking at market directions - they can both be profitable.
Always appreciate your Aptera financial news Rich... I make no claims to understand much of it, but I (we) do appreciate your explanations!
Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey video, and
Charge On!
I have 3 reserved now. Also a small investor. I believe in Aptera.
Wow, you reserved three that’s amazing. What are your plans for these vehicles?
@@Rich1Rodriguez One for me to drive and the other 2 to start my fleet to rent out on TURO. to pay for all 3.
@@Rich1Rodriguez Resale at premium to help pay for the 1st one?
The DOE loan, while it sounded like it was for startups is for anything but startups or at least new startups. It is somewhat ironic that big companies can get the loan and they can afford not to have the loan but companies like Aptera struggle. If you think of how many Corvettes are made each year (yes a completely different beast but a unique vehicle) they only make about 22k vehicles (every year). Aptera has some 44,000 pre-orders. If only 15% of those pre-orders are converted sales, that is only a little more than 7,000 vehicles. If they take the price to $44K like you suggested they might, the number of actual orders will likely be in the area of 4,400. That would be hard for the DOE to justify a loan for. If Aptera keeps the LE in at $35K or less, they have a pretty good chance at a 25% conversion or 11,000 vehicles sold. DOE would need to see sustained purchase volume of 11,000 vehicles annually to likely even consider the loan.
Some great thoughts, thank you.
If 15% conversion rate would likely still be adequate as long as the backlog stays strong. That would ensure continuous production, continuous cash flow, economic sustainability sufficient, and then qualify for the DOV loan.
And, don’t forget the Tesla analogy I mentioned. Tesla produced about 1,000 cars when their DOE loan was approved.
Charge on!
Ive been waiting forever for more of your videos.
I recently got married, and the original date was postponed because of COVID. So we had to reschedule.
Thanks for watching.
Charge on!
@@Rich1Rodriguezcongratulations on your marriage! Certainly this is a Worthy reason to be delayed in releasing videos. Appreciate your work and analysis.
Thank you for your insightful information.
Aptera is definitely getting closer to production.
Patiently waiting for my Aptera. Currently sitting in position #339 of the Leaderboad.
Time to start figuring out how I may be able to drive
my Aptera to Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada and how I can register it here.
Any ideas would be appreciated.
Happy Veteran's Day to all in the USA and Happy Remembrance Day to all Canadians.
Thanks for your comments; I would talk to your department of motor vehicles and start the discussion early.
I can nearly smell the Production Intent parts from across the pond....😃
Aptera has caught my attention. Great product idea. 1k range sounds amazing. I hope they come out with a four seat model.
It is a fabulous product
1000 miles is actually ridiculous. Figure out how many times you have to go to the bathroom and eat over the course of.14 hours!
400 miles is just fine for me.
Charge on !
Pie in the sky!
@@Rich1Rodriguez The use case for some could be using the battery for V2G or V2L connections for emergency use house or job site power, or even for camping trips off grid.
I agree that the 400 mile range is a sweet spot for most use.
Reserved and invested... No hurry for me now... bought a boxter and love it.
Patience has its rewards.
Who did the song? Good stuff.
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey video, and please consider subscribing if you have not already done so.
The music credits are at the end of the video, see around 18:31. I met Orlando at the unveiling of the gamma, little did I know he’s a fabulous musical artist.
Charge on!
I also appreciate your insights from a financial standpoint
Thank you Mike. Finance is part of my professional expertise.
Charge on!
Interesting advice for Chris about Reg D. The comparisons to Tesla are curious to me because of the differences in initial pricing between Tesla and Aptera even in the similar down market conditions we are in now. The average anticipated initial price you are quoting may be a hard pill for a first time car buyer. Not knowing that demographic of the pre orders makes me wonder what the conversion rate will be. As far as new possible customers, the initial response to a three wheeler could be an issue early on. So I a can see that there may be a much slower ramp up, much like Tesla but for different reasons.
I loved the car even before it was an electric. Am invested and believe in its efficiencies however, just about everyone I share the image with, first draws back at the image of a three wheel. I wonder how that will translate through initial adoption.
Great analysis Rich! Cheers!
Thanks for the poignant comments.
Given the number of pre-orders, even if we have something like a 15% conversion factor, I anticipate this to be a fabulously successful vehicle and company.
Data from Kelley Blue Book puts the average cost of a new car at $48,008 as of March 2023. So the Aptera may, in fact, be price competitive given the features the car offers.
Charge onl.
@@Rich1Rodriguez one of them will be mine!!
I listen, and always come away "richer." You have helped to give me the strength of belief in Aptera to invest all the way into the top 100 Accelerators. More for the growth than the two digit personalization.
Thanks, and happy holidays!
Very informative video, thank you!
You’re most welcome.
Charge on!
I was a fan of the first Aptera; and the current Aptera is so much better, and is constantly being improved. Enjoy your financial comments, though don’t agree with all your assumptions. Don’t understand why other companies have gotten vastly more investment compared to the revolutionary Aptera.
I was also a fan of the first Aptera and was surprised when they lost the X-Prize due to equipment failure. But those things do happen.
Agree, this iteration is far superior. and the cofounders now are seasoned enough to recognize they have to stick with it to the end, and not hand the reins over it to someone else. Kind of like what happened to Apple Computer when Steve Job left. Company went to hell. When he came back they flourished once again.
It is always tremendously difficult to raise money, and especially for a new car manufacturing company. Tesla, again, is a good example. They almost went bankrupt multiple times as a new car manufacturer. Now they are one of the world’s most innovative and largest EV manufacturers, and this did not come easy - in the early years there was insufficient funding. But they got over it.
I believe Aptera will be a similar case.
Charge on!
Interesting... But make sure you jack the playback speed to at least 1.5, or you may fall asleep.
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey, and thank you for your comments.
This was my first time using a Teleprompter and I’m still getting used to it. My speed was also something I noticed, and I will try to pick up delivery next edition.
Thanks again!
Thanks for the insights Rick, but priced at $44K? Too much even with the energy cost savings. Most popular model is 400 mi range. This number seems way off (high) to me.
Fair enough! But consider: The average cost of new cars is now well over $48,000-up almost $6,000 from two years ago and about $10,000 from September 2020, according to Kelley Blue Book. The Aptera will likely come in lower, but we don’t know precisely yet - I was just using a guesstimate and from the big scheme of things that won’t change valuation much.
Charge on!
@@Rich1Rodriguez the average price of a new vehicle might be $48,000 but I don't see the average American for the sake of argument, purchasing a $48,000 vehicle. That is not affordable to the average consumer. Salaries have increased but not at the rate that makes a $44,000 400 mile Aptera affordable to the average consumer. The base 400 mile Aptera had been advertised at $29K and the LE is now $33,200. If the LE ends up much more than $36,000, they will not even see 15% reservation to purchase conversion. In my view there are 2 significant items missing in the LE that would make it as efficient as claimed. 1) Heat pump 2) Heated seats. The volume of air within the Aptera is significant and to heat that with resistive heat is not efficient at all. Also the weight of the LE went from 1800 lbs to 2200 according to Chris Anthony. If we assume the drag coefficient has dropped to 0.14 and the weight of the vehicle is 2200 lbs with a passenger/cargo weight of 370 lbs the 400 mile mark comes in at 58 mph not 66 mph. Of course the EPA uses 48 mph but the 100Wh/mile claim comes in at 58 mph. Has Aptera ever stated the velocity of the vehicle at 100Wh/mile? Not that I am aware of and I have been following them since 2007.
@@Rich1Rodriguez while the average new car is indeed $48K, its still represent a 4 wheel vehicle with seating for at least 4 passengers. The Aptera market is a bit different (3 wheels only) and some may consider it limiting with only 2 seaters. Don't get me wrong, I am a proponent for Aptera but with the announcement for lower cost EVs from Tesla and the tsunami from the Chinese EVs (over the horizon), the higher cost is not the way to go.
If Aptera does it's manufacturing line appropriately, they may be able to spin up and get their 1,000th Aptera out within 6 months or even sooner. They should be using the PI versions to generate preliminary build instructions. This assumes they have a fairly good idea on how the manufacturing is split up and what is done at each station.
Thanks, again, for your comments. I suspect the number of build stations and the dwell time at each station may be adjusted as production starts to ramp. And yes, I agree, the PI's will be used to document the assembly process.
They are no longer claiming 3.5 sec 0-60. They are now saying 4.0 sec.
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey, and thank you for your comments.
You are correct on the acceleration times. My sense is with the addition of the metal subframe and rollbar the vehicle got a little heavier. Hence the minor decrease in acceleration time. My current EV has a 6.5 second 0 to 60 acceleration, so I will still find Aptera acceleration time to be amazing.
Charge on!
@@Rich1Rodriguez Rich, I think the main reason for the change is not a weight increase but moving the torque/rpm range down in the curve, and a somewhat lower peak HP value, which also increases the average efficiency some.
I am not comfortable with the comparison to Tesla. They have over 60% of the US EV market and are more than an EV manufacturer. Aptera is a small startup and not vertically integrated. They do have a great product and team. But the comparison is just not there. I believe their stock can IPO for more than the current price. But it is a bit too early to speculate on how much. And that's why they will wait for production to settle before the IPO is offered. They are playing it smart.
I agree the strategic decisions. Aptera is making have been very astute.
Remember, as well, Tesla was not vertically integrated at the time they got the DOE loan and they had virtually 0% of the EV market share at the time. Tesla was the upstart.
And I agree Aptera has a fabulous product and team.
Charge on!
I can compare the Tesla of 2008 with present day Aptera, because I have seen both first hand. The company I worked for was across the street from Tesla, and we hired their motor engineers when Tesla had to lay them off. At the same stage, Aptera is both more financially stable and has a more mature and a much larger market product.
Cannot have sub 4 seconds acceleration with the 1000 miles Aptera. You have same motors but the 1000 miles Aptera would be much heavier due to much larger battery.
Thanks for watching My Aptera Journey video.
You are correct, the 1,000 mile version will be slower off the line.
I’m careful to say in the intro “… and on some models…”. Perhaps I can more clearly make this statement.
Thanks so much, and
Charge on!
Hello Rich, it was refreshing to see a new video from you. Always exciting to see your financial point of view with Aptera. Thank you for always explaining these advanced financial terms and definitions with such confidence and knowledge. 👍😀👍
Thank you so much. It is a pleasure to be able to share my knowledge and insights with a broader community.
Charge on!
Crisp, concise info. Love it. Great job
Thank you for your kind words.
I am constantly trying to improve the quality of my work. Studio lighting, new 4K video recording, HDR, video, recording, and new condenser microphones with 32 bit float recording, and a teleprompter.
After my Aptera arrives, I will have to invest in multiple GoPro!
Thanks Rich! The group is growing … ヽ༼ ຈل͜ຈ༼ ▀̿̿Ĺ̯̿̿▀̿ ̿༽Ɵ͆ل͜Ɵ͆ ༽ﾉ . I hear them cheering on! Best
Aptera is definitely growing.
Charge on!
I think the Aptera conversion rate on the Aptera deposits will be much greater than 15%. I could be wrong, but I think it will be closer to 50-70?%, primarily because the people who put down their deposits really want the car. There will be some who no longer want it. But I understand you probably are being very conservative.
Thanks for you comments. Will certainly be interesting to see how the conversion rate plays out. No doubt.
Charge on!
Game over for Tesla!Its Aptera time baby!
Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey.
I believe the energy transition is the largest economic opportunity in 100 years. There is significant room from multiple players who offer fabulous products.
Aptera Motors is one such company with their innovative and highly efficient transportation offering.
Charge on!
There are 3 crazy stories I've experienced in my life the story of tesla bitcoin and aptera waiting for no 4
Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey.
Tesla is an interesting story, a story of struggle, really. “We can build this crazy electric car and people will be amazed with the performance.” Built with laptop batteries, they pulled it off to become the world’s leading EV manufacturer and forward thinking innovator.
I have been in finance the last 15 years and I view bitcoin as a pyramid scheme. Blockchain technology I get. Bitcoin? Not so much.
Aptera is such an innovative, efficient, and practical design it is likely to etch out a formidable spot in the market. One it hits the street, I believe sales will skyrocket… only production capabilities will constrain deliveries. Similar to Tesla. Watch this space.
Change on!
5:27
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey video.
I believe that we are on the path to a recession. I’m not sure exactly how this will unfold, but historically when the treasury yield curve is inverted for such a large amount and for such a long time as it is now, the results have been long and deep recessions.
This too will pass.
Charge on!
I am not predicting anything, but just looking back at history and, I am very cautious about what history tells us.
Take care, and
Charge on!
To many delays, will they ever come to production
Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey.
We are actually seeing the production models being built before our very eyes.
Charge on!
@@shrimptopian3392 This is false and you know it by this time.
Future adaquite sales like Salindra had...
I worked for a company that got a contract under Solyndra to supply the HVAC for a new plant they had won a contract for. We were going to put the energy use and performance data online in real time. When Solyndra objected, we immediately pulled the plug on the deal.
Aptera is open, unlike what Solyndra was. That is a huge difference between the two companies.
@@n.brucenelson5920 Do you have verifiable performance data and costs for Aptera. Guys making electric carts on UA-cam are more transparent and honest.
Hi Steven - Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey and your interest in the car. Be looking for updates in the coming, and, later ride-along videos!
I am glad you acknowledged the DOE loan qualifications. They were never serious about getting the loan, that is evident alone by how long they took to file it. However filing it gave a boost to the morale of the Aptera fans and one thing Aptera does well is in telling their fans what they want to hear and deftly waving off what they don't want to hear with some patronizing talk.
So why do I think they will not get a DOE loan. Well outside the obvious, they are trying to market a three wheel two seat vehicle into a market where any car buyer who wants an EV can select from over fifty models in the US. Cap this off with the fact more than one automaker has stated their plans to sell an traditional EV car for under 30k, maybe as low as 25k, before end of 2025 and it the issue becomes more apparent. Plus we have to consider the original pricing on the Aptera of 33k is not likely to be close to its real cost given Chris's own comments that the switch to CPC substantially raised the costs. How much are you willing to pay for a Launch Edition? They won't comment on actual price likely because they know it will upset many with reservations and slow them even further. The only savings they have a chance with is batteries but he stated in July they did not have the supplier selected for the PI battery pack though there are many earlier claims EVE had been chosen.
The elephant in the room is they (Chris recently repeated it) have a two year path to profitability. This is their admission the initial lot of Aptera will be sold at a loss. How much of a loss is not known. How many Aptera will be built during this period? This is very typical in the industry and Aptera cannot escape this even with their approach to manufacturing; worse they added a whole new logistics issue by having to ship near complete vehicles from Italy to California for final assembly. Vehicles in transit are not helping the bottom line and quite a few will have to be in flight so to speak to keep any assembly process in California active with any hopes of being profitable; as in the equipment and man power cannot be left waiting on shipping.
So unless they get their angel investor I don't expect them to be around much longer, they certainly did not have the cash they needed ending June 30th having to push a lot of compensation to stock issuance. Worse was having to abandon Vista and pay a near 2m penalty along with all the money they lost moving there and out. That was their original solar production facility and future home of Elaphe per filings.
I guess its fun to fantasize they could sell their shares and of course for far more than they currently manage. It does not make their offering Given that the Accelerator program did not turn out as they expected, they originally had a March 26th close date, and the slowing of new reservations the real danger is interest has peaked.
To cap it off, until we get a price update from them all they have is renders and promises. A price update would demonstrate faith in their product, some proof they truly are going to be in production soon, and also respect for their fans. Nothing will piss off their fans more than to drop a price bomb on them at the last minute. Frankly I think they should aim much more upscale than they are now. Put the LE to 50k or more... actually numbered LE models should have a very high premium attached to them
Great comment. I'll add that they have never demonstrated one performance feature that they use to define themselves.
Hello Andromedach - Thanks for your interest in the Aptera.
I disagree with your statement "They were never serious about getting the loan." Have you ever filled out a government funding application? I have. They are exhaustive, and take gobs of time. The DOE is doing well by advising Aptera to complete all the milestones/gates prior to being eligible for the award. This is exactly how the process works.
On how much I'm willing to pay for my Aptera? My last EV was in the 40's, and I suspect Aptera will be the same. Plus I'll have fabulous efficiency, solar charging, and all wheel drive - features my current car does not offer.
I cannot tell you how many Aptera will be built in the first two years. The pre-order backlog is huge, so we will see how the ramp process goes. There is no information I have heard from Aptera they intend to operate at a loss, though ramping production may prove challenging due to learning ramp. The forthcoming DOE loan may well provide assets for more in-house vertical integration... and production cost reductions.
Stop grants and options are not impactful to cash.
In my view, the Accelerator program has been very successful, having raised some $23 million... and growing.
I disagree with your statement' "until we get a price update from them all they have is renders and promises." The production intent vehicle is being fabricated as we speak.
Thanks again for your interest in Aptera.
Charge on!
@@artsmith103 Hi Art -
Efficiency, performance, design solar charging, and innovation (e.g. in-wheel motors, composite body panels) - are all definitive hallmarks of Aptera.
I have no interest in the LE at that price. I'd decline to purchase it.
@@Rich1Rodriguez Nearly none of your list has been demonstrated. It's shameful. Guys building electric carts on UA-cam are more honest and competent about quantifying performance.
Wake up. They only have 3 prototypes, haven't completed the design and are running out of money fast. They are not in production so your claims are false.
Hi Adrian -
Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey video.
Eyes. Wide. Open. I encourage you to review the video again in its entirety, I mention clearly they are not yet in production and have a couple years to go until they reach at least 1000 vehicles or so. I agree we cannot deny this simple fact. That said, production parts have been manufactured already in Italy, and are in process of being assembled.
In my day job I look at financial performa every week, and I analyze their consistency and rationality. So this type of analysis is not new to me.
The financial scenarios I presented are simply that, potential scenarios. it is unclear at this time which of the snow is more likely to move towards reality.
Consider subscribing to this channel if you have not already, you can watch more of the Aptera car progress.
If you’re in the western United States, I could swing by and show you my car after derives.
All the best!
= Rich =
You are wrong. I have seen more than "three prototypes" with my own eyes. They had more than that back in 2021 when my wife and I rode in one. They have almost doubled their cash position between the last two SEC reports, and are in far better shape than Tesla was in December of 2008.
Production parts for the PI builds have already been made and validated.
Aptera is a continuous improvement company, so the design will never be "completed" in the sense of traditional manufacturers and they won't have model years.
There will be no recession! You are a gloom and doom kind of guy!
Thanks for your comments, and watching My Aptera Journey.
When the first Iraq came about, I went long oil. When the Great Recession hit I shorted the market. So I learned how to make $ in up and down markets! As a side benefit, I’ve learned to be more unbiased in looking at market directions - they can both be profitable.
If you didn't have that ribbon on your jacket I could of continued to watch. Sorry but don't bring Politics into Aptera.
You did.
Charge on!
Politics? What political party does the ribbon represent? I really want to know. I thought I had a general grasp on the war.