China's drastic FDI decline, strained ties with India, Taiwan factor: Shekhar Gupta with Sana Hashmi
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- Опубліковано 23 вер 2024
- Why is China witnessing a rapid decline in FDI trends, what is behind its call for 'reunification' with Taiwan and how Xi Jinping's aggressive policies are impacting Beijing's diplomatic and trade relations. In episode 1406 of #CutTheClutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta looks at all these questions and more in conversation with columnist Sana Hashmi.
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Read Sana Hashmi's column here : theprint.in/op...
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Chapters:
05:40 - 'India-China relations have shifted from very friendly to very hostile'
06:59 - Aggressive Chinese policies has shifted focus back to Taiwan
09:07 - Chinese economic growth rate on a decline, foreign companies moving out
14:17 - FDI in China decreased by USD 120 billion in past 9 months
16:13 - 'No segregation between economics and politics in China'
22:10 - India-Taiwan trade relations on the rise
25:22 - Shifting US trade policies in China have impacted foreign investments
30:05 - 'China wants Taiwan to reunify, but Taiwan moving away from China & towards US, India'
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We URGENTLY need more voices like young Sana Hashmi to SPEAK UP, SPEAK OUT and EDUCATE us desis abt Taiwan. Also good to hear she's a 100% authentic Delhiite with firm roots in Old Delhi.
"Taiwan is also a China". Shekhar ji what happened to you? Even Taiwanese don't consider themselves as Chinese.
Whats the urgency?
Ok
@@iansmith8275 Taiwanese consider themselves ethnically Chinese.. even some aborigines.. But Politically they are forced to make a distinction..
@@sampadizationno they don't
Sana is one of the sane voices I see on twitter who is a regular crusader for deepening India-Taiwan ties.
Sana is right, China shows its people that all neighbors are bullies and hence keep an aggressive push towards neighbors and keep pushing its boundaries.
Funny, our government shows China as a friend and keeps importing from China..
Do you listen to "Lei's Real Talk" regularly? I highly recommend you do if you want to have a deep understanding of China. I know a lot more about China than what Sana talked about in this session because I follow Lei's channel regularly.
@@PanakaluPoonakam
Let's stop living in a small bubble.. and keep open minded and be pragmatic. Wishful thinking is not reality.
Lei is a falun kon member 😂😂😢@@PanakaluPoonakam
So relieved that we have somebody fluent in Chinese. Gupta is so painstaking in recruiting and advancing a whole cadre of competence in Indian public life.
Is she fluent in Chinese? I dont think so.
@@Liboch Yeah, she's more "fluent" than Indians in Malaysia who go to Chinese schools for at least 6 years. Being in Chinese school obviously they know how to read and write in Mandarin.
@@vijayarajan3276 more fluent than those who studied in Chinese school? 🤣
@@Liboch is this the best you could come up with?
"Thank you Sana Hashmi, And for SG best suited is Mr John C. Maxwell, statment "A great leader is not threatened by the talent of his/her team, but rather sees it as an opportunity. They are surround themselves with the best people to complement their strengths ."
True, and I feel sorry to say that we mostly lack such people
Nice to hear about China from Sana but the point is - Why is Shekhar so much interested in travails of the Chinese economy? Even if FDI inflow is down by some hundred plus billion USD, it does not affect them much. The economy is 5 times that of India at over 16 trillion USD. And is not expected to grow at the rates experienced earlier. Problems of real estate sector are there in every other country in varying degrees of impact and China will take care of it in due course by initiating appropriate policy initiatives. Finally, if Chinese are indeed going down, why bother? Just wait and watch!!!
Maybe to learn cause we are trying to become next china.
While China has made enormous progress, I find that Chinese underestimate India dramatically. It is somewhat of an optics problem given by slums and poverty in India.
Nice to see and hear someone whose columns I read with interest. ❤❤👍👍
This was really a great discussion!
SG is doing a phenomenal job in bringing forward such learned people like Sana!
We need more Sana like scholars from India to study the Chinese. Congratulations to Sana on her achievements. Well done Sana- you r an inspiration. India is proud of you.
Outstanding video. Learnt a lot. Kudos to Shekhar to give the floor to the expert. That shows that is a true professional who is seeking to learn and inform. I will follow her columns more regularly now.
Thank you for the kind words, and for appreciating and supporting our journalism. Do keep watching...best wishes, Shekhar
China controls 95% of the production and supply of rare earth metals, integral to manufacturing magnets for electric vehicles (EVs) and wind farms, and this monopoly has allowed China to dictate prices and stir turmoil among end users through export controls.
geopolitical tensions between the West and China risk the reliable supply of rare earth minerals. If China persists with export restrictions, as it has with commodities like as germanium and graphite, supply could be further compromised.
Rare earths, a group of 17 elements used in various products including EVs, wind turbines, and consumer electronics due to their magnetic and electronic properties.
Not if West invades and liberates Tibet.
1. China is working purely in its own interest, and from a nationalist perspective, they are doing a pretty good job for themselves.
2. The world seeing China as hostile confirms the growing clout and power of China. Indian opinion on Taiwan is irrelevant and carries zero weight aside from some editorial content in some newspapers .
3. Taiwan remains a distant subject for Indian policymakers. Nepal and Bhutan hold more significance for India than Taiwan. Taiwanese also do not see India as a significant ally; the US remains Taiwan's primary partner.
4. The economy and FDI are always flexible with fluctuating graphs. Chinese companies have grown stronger and are becoming multinational corporations. It is short-sighted to measure China's manufacturing strength solely based on foreign firms' competitiveness against Chinese companies or FDI.
5. The Chinese government has directly invested in taking China to the next level, while Indian govt. companies like BHEL/BEL are constrained by government policies.
6. Indian private sectors have strategic business tie-ups with East Asia, with over 20,000 collaborations between Korean and Japanese businesses. While collaboration of Taiwanese companies with India is not even 1000
7. Taiwanese investments heavily in China, and many opinions here underestimate the real situation. Bringing in a Taiwanese perspective could provide a clearer understanding. Taiwanese are aware of China's hostile attitude towards the USA.
8. FDI is no longer a necessity for China, and relying on FDI data alone does not accurately depict China's current situation. Speaking to Indian businesses that frequently operate in China can offer a more realistic view.
9. Taiwanese are only curious about India and not interested in a substantial relationship due to considering India an unreliable market. Business data supports this viewpoint. For instance, managerial staff in Foxconn factories in India are mainly mainland Chinese citizens.
10. Is China's economy declining? This question requires clarification about the specific perspective from which the decline is being assessed. FDI data is irrelevant .
11. India should consider navigating Taiwan-related policies based on its own interests.
12. There are ZERO direct flights between India & Taiwan. Thus demonstrates the value of Taiwan India Relationship.
Thank you for valueable insights
Industrial raw material is a major part of import from China, low sulphur carbon is a major raw material is steel making, china is the cheapest source of that, simply no competition.
You are a lot more analytical than the "Chinese expert" Sana who said that since India is having huge trade deficit with China, China is not respecting the redline of India. She doesn't understand that most India's import from China are industrial components and then re-exported to the US, etc. That's why India has such a huge trade surplus with the US.
U forget a simple fact, China has most of the tech and hime companies investing within, like byd for example. They dont need FDI to the extent as in the past. Many companies did move out and have come back ..simply because of the work culture
So happy to see you here, SH✨️🎉 keep soaring high 🙌🏻
Thank you Sanaji. It is a rare opportunity to get the views from a primary source (that too from India), on China.
Your analysis and views certainly improved my understanding about Taiwan/China and Chinese foreign policy dynamics.
Very fine analysis by Sana
Great episode. Thanks for your insights on a very important area 🙏🏼
Factory moving out of china, is sure sigh that china is becoming a rich and develope countries.
MG Motor UK Limited, trading as MG or MG Motor, is an automotive company headquartered in London, and owned by the Shanghai-based Chinese state-owned automaker SAIC Motor.
Great work by Sana!
Today, China's productivity is nearly double that of India. While 45% of Indian workers are still in the highly unproductive agriculture sector, China has graduated even from simple, labour-intensive manufacturing to emerge, for example, as a dominant force in global car markets, especially in electric vehicles.
Ofc. When the govt here wants to bring farm laws, a section of farmers protest. Politics is keeping farmers poor. China started with the rural sector. Those were the first reforms it undertook 30 years back. We need political resolve to counter farmer mafia so that normal farmer can benefit
@@Anomander5622
To compete with the top economies of the world India needs to focus on Quality education and skilling of labor, on TOP priority.
@@mg.f.9023that's exactly what's holding China back too rn. Everyone studied for engineering & business administration & now there r no domain specialists like Agriculture or production management. Once U study & graduate U don't wanna go back to modernise the rural sector. U would rather take a corporate job & shift to a city. That's exactly what's happening in China rn & that's why there's approx 20% unemployment in Young graduates in China. That's why education shouldn't just be about STEM courses but also domain specific like production management & agriculture or even electrician,carpenter etc. that's exactly what Europe did & that's why they're much more developed than China rn. China's village & rural sector is even worse than Bihar. My Uncle went there & he said 1st of all u don't get permission to travel there unless it's with some local Chinese for some official work. He got permission through his buyer to go to the interiors & went there & he said it's the most dirtiest & filthiest place he saw anywhere in the world. That's why in China they recruit all these people & send them to big cities where they do almost bonded labour with 12 hour work shifts in manufacturing for 3 years, then r paid severance packages & sent back to their villages
@@mananmehta6910don't speak facts bro ... Ccp bots don't have counters for them
Then better forego democracy and adopt Dictatorship like China ; U have guarantee for freedom of speech but no guarantee for u r life after speech ;
We need more such discussions on china. I feel Indian have very less knowledge about china & In our media we don't even talk china. We keep talking & discussing about Pakistan.
Insane content... all the gyaanis in India give gyaan on China, without any literature and this lady has just hit the target like crazy accurate! Awesome stuff!
Nice episode Sana very knowledgeable. Given lots of insight
I dont understand sanghis keep asking about the Uyghur "persecution" in china. Uyghurs get jobs, made to focus on Chinese nationalism rather than their muslim identity. Isnt that what sanghis want from indian Muslims as well?
You’re such a tool. A literal waste of sperm
Who are these Sanghis? Is it UN?
Fantastic interview. ThePrint has found a balanced journalist or expert in Ms. Sana Hashim. From the looks of it, Xi Jingping seems to be the 'Aggregator General' of 'all things slowing down' in China.
Sana is sharp and articulated.
Excellent conversation Shekhar and guest ! Get her more to the print dialogues ❤
We absolutely plan to do that. Thank you for watching and writing in, Rajiv...best wishes, Shekhar
SG please correct, Taiwan isn't china
Byd export more cars than Tesla
Sana shows good local insights...from Taiwan specific to China ..her indights on China seem to be derived from current events well known in public domain ..
I think Taiwan reunification or even an Arunachal takeover is a pipe dream. The decline in FDI is also due to the fact that Chinese labor is not so cheap anymore. You also don't see a China FDI loss directly benefitting India because though Indian labor is cheap, we are still a very "red tape" country (Blame lies with the people; politicians are only reacting to people's demand of no land acquisition and activist hurdles). South East Asian countries are mostly benefitting from Chinese FDI exodus. That said, China is still the world's factory and a crucial cog of world growth.
India needs caste census nd mandir nd statues
Arunachal is nowhere in China's pipe dream even. Arunachal is a bargaining chip they're using to settle Ladakh, Kashmir & Aksai Chin. Aksai Chin has Uranium ores & that's exactly what China has sets it's eyes on & wants that. That's why they say if India accepts Aksai Chin to be a part of China they'll immediately agree that Arunachal is a part of India
Kudos to Sana Hashmi who exhibits her repository of knowledge, prefers to call Taiwan a Thaiwan, she is competent enough to enlighten the audience with her authentic and trustable information regarding the internal political and economic scenario prevailing in the so-called People's Republic of China, once a sleeping opium giant but now a modern, vibrating, awakened and expansionist country. I am really impressed by her straight talk without mincing the words, is a rare columnist for The Print.
Sanaa is a true expert, and credit to SG for identifying the talent! Sanaa shows the difference being in the field of action makes to expertise on any topic.
For The Print, this has been the best week of covering various topics - quality-wise and comprehensiveness. Kudos
please make a
video about ongoing political scuffle in himachal pardesh
Shekhar Sir, we have seen many many cut the clutter episodes on China, however I believe this is the first time Sana has joined you. This is fantastic work, hope we get to see more of Sana at CTC going forward.
Lot of insights on China & Taiwan from Sana. Keep inviting her regularly.
We absolutely plan to do that. I'm glad you found the episode insightful. Thank you for watching and writing in, my friend...best wishes, Shekhar
Indians like to Compare with China everyday, India have to compare with Bangladesh, Venezuela, Madagascar
Excellent insights.
Wonderful presentation
Thanks
Dear Shivkumar,
Thank you for contributing to our journalism.
Good one, thank you.👍
Excellent , she is so knowledgeable and good command of English, enjoyed very much
A treat to listen to Sana . Great going young lady !
Informed content- thanks for the episode 👍
Thank you, Anil, for watching and appreciating our journalism...best wishes, Shekhar
The FDI inflow in India was 0.77% of GDP in 2004. Under Manmohan Singh in 2014, it rose to 1.7%. However, under Madani, it dropped to 1.47%. This decline occurred as the West adopted the China Plus One strategy. These numbers indicate that India still needs to capitalize on this trend. While XIping recognizes the decrease in FDI inflows, Madani asserts an increase during his term; Gupta fails to address this discrepancy.
The Chinese net inflow of FDI has reduced as during this decade, China has heavily invested abroad under its OBOR project, which is currently building infrastructure in over 50 countries. China is following a prudent policy of keeping its foreign exchange not only in American Bonds. This has also helped expand its international influence. China today builds more infrastructure abroad than the IMF & World Bank do.
Taiwan openly claims that Arunachal Pradesh is part of China, and Modani accepts it. So much for the 56 inches!!!
What an idiot, talking about net inflow as percent of GDP, without mentioning the share of Indian GDP compared to world GDP rose, so obviously the percent of FDI inflow will decrease.
0.77% of 2004 GDP ($710 B) = $5.5 Billion
1.7% of 2014 GDP ($2T)= $34 Billion
1.47% of 2023 GDP ($4.1T) = $60 Billion
= Well done, Modi Govt🤠
@@sankalp6872@sankalp6872 Our GDP is not $ 4.17 billion, and you are using the wrong logic.
@@sankalp6872: Manmohan singh increased FDI by 6.18 times while poor Modi could manage only 1.76 tomes. So, who did better?
@@pardeeptandon You are correct. Our GDP is not $4.17 billion. It is $4.17 trillion. However, you are wrong about Logic. Mathematics is Logic. Modi Govt pulled in almost twice the FDI of UPA.
Good one.
Shekhar with any expert
Beyond excellence
I would say unmatchable.
Very knowledgeable and helpful 👌 👍 👏
Excellent presentation once again .
Proud of our Indian scholar Sana Hashmi based out in Taiwan .
Happy to see Sana here with you SG. She has always voices for greater India - Taiwan relations. Welcome Sana to ctc !!
Excellent episode team print Sana Hashmi and SG, interesting, thought provoking and extremely compelling to listen to. Great work and as always compliments and best wishes.
Thank you for the kind words, my friend. It means a lot coming from our subscriber. I'm glad you liked this episode. Do keep watching and writing in...best wishes, Shekhar
Audio quality in print video is very poor
Great to hear Sana 's view point from Thaiwan. Need more of her ...
great conversation. India needs more engagement with Taiwan, esp during this period of relative Chinese decline.
Taiwan is not china SG. We know your funds come from china.
She sounds like a high school student in a debate class.
Nice information
This was something special 🎉
Brilliant.
Thanks to sana hashmi for her wonderful insights.
Instead of only writing columns, she should make 5-10 mits videos or interactive setions like this are more useful on china issues.
Thank you for watching and writing in, Harsh. Sana does have a video offering. It is called Eye on China. Do watch when you can...best wishes, Shekhar
Meanwhile Indian government departments warned the centre against arbitrarily increasing import duties on Chinese goods.
India looks like in a good spot in between competing great nations, on paper, but I think this is a bad position because it also pissed off many big nations around the world by playing too many sides. As for Taiwan and mainland China, with DPP in power in Taiwan that always belittles all mainlanders (a type of racism), not just the CCP, is heading toward unpleasantness.
Shekhar, you probably meant “leverage” and not “cleavage” around 10:40 😅
lmaoooo xD
A cleavage between two people or things is a division or disagreement between them.
Shekhar was right in using the word
Thank you.. while I understand your concern I do in fact mean to say cleavage. It means a space or divide between people or nations in this case…pls check out Webster’s or any other dictionary! Shekhar…
typical SG style interview! Call an expert but demonstrate that he is knowledgeable!
We should stop caring about Chinese Red lines , time has come to pursue our interest unapologetically and improve relation with Taiwan .
Bro forgot we import 100 Billion dollar worth of goods from China 🥶
Bro you forgot thos 100 Billion we added another 100 Billion and export the finish goods 👍@@rajsimhamv9045
And how will cooperation with Taiwan and going against China will benefit Indians?
Instead of being emotional you should be practical. How much can India sell to 20 million Taiwan and how much can India sell to 1.4Billion Chinese.
@@rajsimhamv9045and China has surplus. So it would be their loss more than ours
@@DineshTwanabasuChina is already against India.
Economy slowing down is basically economy maturing as population stabilized… it’s a giant economy with a giant defense budget … you guys are talking with a “confirmation bias” typical of most Indian analysts
Wonderful to listen to Sana, giving great insights about China
Thank you for appreciating our journalism, my friend. I'm glad you liked this episode. Do keep watching and writing in...best wishes, Shekhar
Paradoxically, you will hardly find any Chinese public discussion about India . It seems that India does not exist in Chinese mind.
SG very aptly described her as a young person with domain knowledge about China. Thanks to the print for such a refreshing CTC
Thank you for the kind words, my friend. I'm glad you liked this episode. Do keep watching and writing in...best wishes, Shekhar
After a very long, long gap, a very good, educative talk from Print media. Thanks
She mentioned herself as Indian and did not add Muslim tag. This is blasphemy 😮
Fatwa on the way 😊
Shekhar: "I will let you talk a lot more". Of course, then proceeds to INTERRUPT ALL the f*ing time! 😀
Hats off to Sana ! Proud of her !
She says in one sentence that they are a perfect democracy only to say a minute later that social media is controlled by the government! No wonder she had to repeat around 10 times at the beginning that she's a "scholar" .
That aside, a good discussion, but nothing new that Shekharji hadn't already covered in his individual CTCs
Taiwan is not China, even if it had been colonised by people of chinese origin after their civil war.
You can study Taiwan all you want, but playing with Taiwan issue above India's capability. Only US can get away with poking China with Taiwan issue. India needs to cooperate with China in BRICKS and Shanghai Cooperation Org. If India screw it up, there will be no cooperation.
I think this episode lacks the depth one would expect from a domain expert. I would have loved to hear specifics and details and perhaps some disagreements also in this episode. I am quite fond of most things The Print does and therefore I feel a constructive criticism is my 2 cents to help it improve
Dude just called Taiwan as China
His funds come from china
India needs more scholars and SME like her
Thankfully SG sir is conducting this interview and not Jyoti Malhotra maam whooz constantly interrupting the speaker and not allowing them more time to do the talking as it should be
As India govt say china is our competitor but This attitude of banning china export to India is itself defeatist mindset of India govt it looks like we already accepted we can't succeed Indian export increase in competition with china export so don't let china succeed by using unfair tactics by banning export by this thinking one thing is clear competition make better of themselves defeatist attitude make stagnation frustrations of failure and incompetence
Jealous Indian shekhar Gupta 007
Can you guys bring people with more experience and from those who has seen life? Not sir interns plz
Overall pretty good interview, but her views are basically Taiwan’s general view about PRC. This is much better than West, but also seriously biased to Taiwan And Anti-CCP.
The point is these views still not Right about PRC and could not correctly predict the Future actions and situation of PRC.
1) She confused the Net FDI flow with FDI Inflow, especially the industrial investment. The real story is that the Foreign Hot Money, like the stock investment, and some foreign labor-intensive companies did leave PRC AND caused the net FDI to always zero. But many high-tech foreign investment still pouring into PRC. This is the much important part.
2) The current government on Taiwan is Republic of China. So saying Taiwan is not part of China is Wrong! She knew this.
She is definately an Asset for india
Shekhar sir..
Taiwan is a separate country...why call it china or Taipei... why toe Chinese communist party line..
SG check on Japan in 90s.. It's the same (post ww2) colonial tactics that's running now.
दोगुलापन।।। Taiwan which is also china??? Could you please clarify who give you the right to pass this judgement & whom are you trying to please?? You're a wonderful elaborator but sometimes you drift things away one way. Only a feedback
What extra information are both of you providing. These are all known facts. Come on I was expecting something in greater detail.
Nice interview! I wanted more on Western European, Australia and South East asian nations taken on the new China
Mr Gupta , please do not say “Taiwan is China.” Even GOI doesn’t emphasize it anymore. And you should have NO compulsion to repeat it.
You said so in the beginning.
Especially if you want to appeal to a global audience
This was a great session.. thanks Print.
If China underestimates India then it is good for us. We in turn should never let our guard down because it is high time we start giving more priority to our northern neighbor compared to the western one.
Sir, we know all the Disclaimer by heart by now. Go ahead and make the show.
And shekhar again attempted today-yesterday-tomorrow analogy😂