India’s population leap: 5 takeaways, why China is in a sulk, & why growing numbers needn’t be scary
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- Опубліковано 25 чер 2024
- #CutTheClutter #Population #IndiaChina
The UN population report says India is set to surpass China in population, but why is Beijing brooding (and being borderline racist) over this instead of celebrating? In Ep 1217 of Cut The Clutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta explains key takeaways from the UN report, and the demographic shifts India & the world are likely to see.
@sarvodaya_healthcare
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Religion wise Split is more important for India. We already lost 1/3rd of India land to Pakistan and Bangladesh when Muslim population reached 35% in Pre partition India
@@KrishnaKaliyuga You have to be careful Krishna, think you seeing things in a very wrong way. Having a too big population is putting massive strain on Indian water supply. This is a problem trying feed over a billion people now living in India. Even if you still had Pakistan that will not help you other parts of India where the farmers are worried that old water supply is being used up.
China predicted decades ago that an uncontrolled population has huge consequences on pollution, overcrowding, water, food security, education and quality of life that it implemented population control policies. China has roughly 7% of the world's fresh water. India only has 4%. As China industrialized, it went from a net exporter of agriculture to an net importer. All the problems China faced will be India's problems and more. It appears that India will peak at 1.8-2 billion and create a future ticking time bomb of demographics in the future. The only benefit is more low cost labourers if that is even an advantage as it relegates your population to the low income trap. Not even the middle income trap.
Chinas GDP per capita is now $13k USD. India is below $3k USD. What do we expect 1.8 billion Indians to have a per capita of only $15k USD as an maximum? It will forever be a low income trap let alone the middle income trap
Dalai Lama is American CIA agent ...
Tibetan CIA Program 1960-1975 As stated by Palden Wangyal, a veteran guerrilla fighter, the rebels were directly paid by the Americans to attack Chinese government facilities and installations in Tibet: "Our soldiers attacked Chinese trucks and seized some documents of the Chinese government. After that, the Americans increased our pay scale". The Dalai Lama criticized this decision, saying it proved wholeheartedly that the US never did it to help the people of Tibet. International lobbying The 14th Dalai Lama was financially supported by the CIA between the late 1950s and the mid-1970s, receiving $180,000 a year. The funds were paid to him personally, although he used most of them for Tibetan government-in-exile activities such as funding foreign offices to lobby for international support. The Dalai Lama sought asylum in India, but the issues regarding Tibet and China received substantial attention from the press. Many protests erupted in response to the political conflicts between Tibet and China in countries including Burma, Pakistan, and Japan (and many more). Although the Dalai Lama's pleas proved to be less effective with the passing of time, his office in New York did not cease to lobby several U.N. delegations for the Tibetan cause. Also, the Dalai Lama was aided by a former U.S. delegate to the U.N. Criticism In his 1991 autobiography Freedom in Exile, the 14th Dalai Lama criticized the CIA for supporting the Tibetan independence movement "not because they (the CIA) cared about Tibetan independence, but as part of their worldwide efforts to destabilize all communist governments". In 1999, the Dalai Lama suggested that the CIA Tibetan program had been harmful to Tibet because it primarily served American interests, claiming "once the American policy toward China changed, they stopped their help ... The Americans had a different agenda from the Tibetans."
Lip bnoo ll v
My favorite line about India “India has disappointed both optimists and pessimists same time”
I heard that line from somebody else earlier
@@Harsh-rf9k first time I heard this line was back in 2014 before election results came out, from a guy who was an economist/analyst giving interview to Bloomberg. It is not only true but I have realized; it is a fact.
@@coldram1111 ruchir sharma?
@@Harsh-rf9k I don’t remember the name but it was bloomberg US
And you have too
Having a big population is not important.Having a population who can self support themselves and their family is more important since that will add value to the society and economy as a whole.Having more population which thrives on subsidy and govt support will just add to numbers and not to the economy and GDP of the country.
So only Bangla Islamists are to be allowed in India! Bengali logic: any Islamist is local of Bengal, every practicing Sanatani is. Bohirgato😊, terrorist, Communal mouth.
China is correct. The quality of their workers is definitely improving, which will propel economic growth, despite a decline in sheer numbers.
It won't - they have too many non working mouths to feed. An economy runs by consumers & producers - both of working age, which is the lowest in China in all of its history.
All nations with fertility less than 2 will DIE.
I don't know how he twisted it as "racism". The average Chinese worker is more productive than the average Indian worker. Most Indians don't even work in the formal sector and very few actually pay taxes to the government. In other words the Indian government gains very little from this population growth because it simply cannot reap the rewards of this growing work force unless it moves India away from farming and informal work towards heavy industry and the modern digitised economy. Fewer women are in the workforce than before which means a large percentage of India's workers are wasting away and it's being squandered. If this keeps going on then India will not be able to reap its demographic dividend and rather than an asset these people become a burden that the state cannot support.
Simply imagine a family with less than 200 US$ income a month having 8 children to feed.....
Hope that China delivers a few artillery shells to Putin and the sanctions would wipe off another 5-10 years of their remaining demographic advantage.😛
Indian media likes to turn every criticism into an asset and pat on the back for the current situation
Internal migration is already on. My district is in Andhra and its a dry one. Even here, i am started seeing people from Bihar and UP. They are here for permanent settlement.
Good.
Push for requirement of the knowledge of Telugu...
Mass migration will be disastrous.
Same is case with Haryana as well. Half the population of my city is from UP and Bihar. Those who had migrated in 2000s are doing good on socio-economic indicators. And tbh, Haryana needs migrant labors because migrant families are more productive than local ones. Almost 90% of labor force is made of migrants and women participation is quite high as well. You will hardly find any local working women except as teachers.
Same in MP actually in most of our colleges u will find people from up and Bihar
That’s because Andhra folks are migrating to somewhere else like US, Middle East etc.. it is similar case in Kerala as well..
What Chinese spokesperson said about quality of population I feel he meant that the education, health and skills level of an average Chinese is better than an average Indian. I don’t think we can argue with that reality as the HR quality of two countries is readily available.
Tru, but you don't remind a begger that he's a begger, it's not nice.
One negative side of the population growth in India which you haven't referred to is that low per capita income of India, inspite of growing economy. We are still behind even smaller European countries such as Georgia or Moldavia.
Plus job shortage
Ask political parties to invest more amount of money on human capital rather than on wasteful subsidies and freebies.
Ruling party are busy manufacturing ANDHBHAKTS 😅
@@sagarpaul7934 What will politicians do - give free employment like communists & destroy the economy with waste production?
@@mg.f.9023 Better to produce Bhakts than secular subhum*ns
Classic India: "DONT WORRY"
Lol
india has a labor force participation rate of 40. china 70. having more people doesn't mean anything if they are not productive.
As Sanjeev Sanyal has presented in his excellent research paper recently our count of Women LFP is very inaccurately counted as the metrics used by UN are very western in concept.. Our data does not account for women participation in agricultural for eg. which is actually very high.. China may well be ahead of us but our LFP is higher than 40 for sure
Indian labour force participation in 'organized business' is 40%. Not total labour force participation. Please understand the difference. India has alot of unorganised labour participation which isn't accounted for in surveys
Germany gave vocational training in small jobs even baking etc to make a great productive pop. India sis not investing there instead creating white collar jobs for which u need money to invest which most families don't have.
@@0609Bhuwan doesnt matter we are still not close to quality of life chinese have now a days.i dont think we are reaching there in 10 to 20 years.anyway machines are taking over the work less people are required.
@@tarunshroti3255 Precisely. Don't now why the West are blowing smoke up their @ss. China has won the global race. Even if India tried to compete, China already got their first and is currently favored by the global South. India won't be leading the Globe anytime soon. They still need to resolve their slum situation
"Politicians have a lot of time when they are out of power" .. 😂 legend..
Old age homes are already in full swing in Kerala since late 90s.
so?
@siddharthsriram2685 best in recruiting terr@rists and jihadis too
@siddharthsriram2685 It's a breeding ground for PFI and ISIS recruitments I've heard 🤷♀️
@siddharthsriram2685 and still Keralites move to Bengaluru, Mangaluru and Chennai in large numbers, also to Gulf nation's 😂 if Kerala was so great, wouldn't they stay?
@siddharthsriram2685 And what are those "reliable" news sources? Please enlighten me.
Population must be properly managed by citizen , government ,media ,un, international organisation ,civil society, private and public body, companies, corporations, religious leaders.....in holistic and real way..to achieve global goals of development.....❤❤👍👍
If the comment by the Chinese minister is looked objectively rather than from a racial context - what he is implying is that only the size of the population doesn’t matter, but how that population is able to contribute to the nation is what matters.
In the context of this video as well - the population of all current emerging economies will start to reduce going forward, means the dependence on efficiency of numbers rather than the numbers itself will begin to matter.
This means the focus in India has to be on how we can take the population dividend and give it the right opportunities so that it has a multiplier effect - big population, efficiently deployed-> strides in growth.
So I completely disagree with Shekhar and the team that the remarks from the Chinese should be dismissed as purely racially motivated.
China is not sulking. Just look at its achievements on military and economic front.
*QUALITY>>>QUANTITY* whether you like it or not.
Freedom of citizens?
Shekhar-ji, population-growth is always scary for India being extremely overpopulated.
Irony is poor-states has high-birth rate while politicians are busy in caste/religion politics.
Indian fertility-rate may fall faster in coming decades due to:
1. High-cost of living, education, 2. More women joining workforce,
3. Water-scarcity, climate issues, 4. Preference for alternate-lifestyles.
Women in the workforce is societal holocaust & genocide of families.
Still not something to be proud of . The large population has been a major hindrance to India’s progress
Don't know about why people produce like rabbits. But in my village near Noida, a particular community vowed to produce more because Yogi defeated akhilesh in elections.
In my village in Kerala the other community is producing like rabbits to bring BJP to power
@@motei1853 that other community is already more than 50% in Kerala you dumb fuck , the only community who is producing like rats is the “peaceful”community !
@@manishjakh bhai dehradun, haldwani aur haridwar yeh sab haat sa nikal gaya , mullo ko pahar par aane sa ruko
@Gaurav Singh this government will do nothing , wait for Yogi baba
You should owe them some for their contribution in keeping the tfr stable
Thank you for this episode.
What about the growth rate of muslims?
You bhaiiya people are equally responsible for population growth..
Don't come to Maharashtra
Don't worry, you'll live long enough to see yourself a minority
😂😂x100000
@@sensei2203 NEVER
I think a follow up detailed episode - which talks about how India can leverage its young workforce effectively - is due! Pak and Nigeria are two great examples of what happens when the policies do not keep up with population growth! Second, there is a good possibility that Indians might serve as viable replacement in countries like South Korea, Baltic nations and dozen others which are suffering from a dire shortage of the necessary workforce to support their economies - and such migrations can drastically skew these projections.
If you think South korea and the Baltic States will allow Indians to replace them you are deluded 😂 They are some of the most racist countries in the world
I’m pretty sure that the CCP think that Han Chinese count twice compared to all varieties of Indian.
Not all but yeah. Most
@@mohitanand1844 indeed. It’s substantially cultural. Research across culture on children ( if I recall correctly) has suggested similar empathy tendencies early on across population groups.
@@SeeLasSee not all still . Rajputs have defeated qing empire in their homeground.
@@mohitanand1844 this is an area of history I need to study up on.
@@mohitanand1844 when
I love what Rudyard from Whatifalthist says:
'India is always the exception to every rule'
I also watch his great videos.
He is awesome.
Whatifalthist is not the sharpest when it comes to a lot of things he talks about.
Which episode?
One heat wave, one crop failure and we will get the taste of what actual helplessness is and people like Guptaji would be looking to blame someone then.
China is a bright spot in future where people will inherit houses/wealth from their parents and would enjoy a good life.
Indians would be working to death in competition with each other with too much pollution and no quality of life.
@@ishanbajpai6940 The guy is very much an alt right white supremacist. And uneducated.
Very interesting. However, if future projections of countries' populations are based on the current rate, the situation can be different. TFR could keep changing based on various factors, including education, economic necessities, etc.
Sekhar ji's cover fire for our muslim brothers hum do hamare 20. Highly appreciated. 👏
Nigeria's TFR has already come down to 5 and declining fast. New UN projections for Nigeria are more conservative than Lancet Study of '19. Their max appears to be 45-50 crore at max.
Growing population is never a challenge in India, the real challenge is high density of population living in a very small area mainly in and around big cities.
Exactly! High population densities around urban centres are a stress on resources!
There fore we need more territory
We need economic diversification. specially support to msme
@@manpreetbrar838 We don't need new territory.. We need to build more planned cities to house our population and spread out evenly
@@manpreetbrar838 Get some therapy bro... You seem to not live in the real world.
Big Population - Big Problems If Not Handled Well. 😕
But also big opportunities if handled well. Every country that developed did it on the back of a demographic dividend. I've noticed a lot of Indians seem to think large population is bad because of "resources". But this is outdated and incorrect Malthusian thinking. The biggest and most important resource is PEOPLE.
Meiji Japan managed to develop into a great power in 3 decades without any natural resources. They illustrate this point and would be a great example for Indians to study. They accomplished this from the 1860s to 1900 through centralization of domestic power and radical openness to other countries.
The number one goal of the Indian government right now should be to raise the labor participation rate and employ people in a low skill industry like textiles. This is how China utilized its massive demographic dividend in the 90s and early 2000s. China and Vietnam are other countries that very recently went through similar stages of development that India should also study. Land acquisition reform and agricultural reform and more important than any talk of semiconductors or aerospace. Its the nuts and bolts that matter.
Shekhar Gupta..is too optimistic
@@JohnSmith-vn8dm IF HANDLE WELL..
Do you think our government is handling population well ?
@@shaggybeckham9605 No. Indians, especially Hindus are not reproducing fast enough. We need to increase the growth rate of Hindus in this country. We need reproductive quotas as soon as possible.
@@shaggybeckham9605 good thing we have Modi Ji (avatar of Lord Vishnu) 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
Sorry Shekhar, I am rather irked by your assessment of "quality of population" remark of Chinese representative. They may well have not so great quality of population due to their repressive policies but we are no better either and frankly, we are deteriorating much faster than any other "quality of population" considering the social changes unleashed we see around us these days.
When will the National census be conducted?
Sekhar Gupta Ji, you are awesome. Your presentations are always UNCLUTTERED.
THANK YOU.
We are only talking numbers and compare ourselves with China only when convenient. The quality of life, infrastructure, health services, education which China is giving to its Citizens is something India can't even think of . Simply numbers are not enough. We should have the means to make productive use of the numbers. China's politicians and thinkers are trying to get a status ahead of the most developed nations. Our ruling party is busy rewriting history and people are happily following. Its obvious that ,even respected news outlets like Print are of late treading very carefully and very guarded on what they write or say.
true
Chinese politics runs on a different course than India. It gave them quick economic growth but the same system can also come up with the cultural revolution and one child policy.
What India has is a product of our own political system. It has its own pluses and minuses but expecting the best of both systems while trying to avoid the negatives of both is not how it works sadly.
Applaud your comments. So educated Indians can see thru this nonsense
So insightful! Thank you SG
Thank you, Sudeshna. Do keep watching and writing back to us. Thank you also for supporting ThePrint...best wishes, Shekhar
India - 2100 - 109 crores.
Depending on the community that becomes a majority by that time, it's hard to say whether India will remain India then.
We have stood for 1000s of years before and we will stand for 1000s of years after, this is the optimist in me talking.
Kya chutiya bna rahe ho, how can 20% minority become majority. Illiterate
Paranoid, aren't We ?
India will be hindu majority , muslim TFR not very much high and they are only 14 percent of indian population they become majority is mathematical impossibility
70cr hindus n 30cr Muslims. Hindus still b majority
Very good point you brought up before 1:43
It's hillarious when I hear people talking about 2100 and the population levels then when we are not even sure what will happen by 2060 with the climate havoc we are facing.
Nah .humanity will be still there. Earth has been heating up long since
Climate change is farce
Tibetan CIA Program 1960-1975 As stated by Palden Wangyal, a veteran guerrilla fighter, the rebels were directly paid by the Americans to attack Chinese government facilities and installations in Tibet: "Our soldiers attacked Chinese trucks and seized some documents of the Chinese government. After that, the Americans increased our pay scale". The Dalai Lama criticized this decision, saying it proved wholeheartedly that the US never did it to help the people of Tibet. International lobbying The 14th Dalai Lama was financially supported by the CIA between the late 1950s and the mid-1970s, receiving $180,000 a year. The funds were paid to him personally, although he used most of them for Tibetan government-in-exile activities such as funding foreign offices to lobby for international support. The Dalai Lama sought asylum in India, but the issues regarding Tibet and China received substantial attention from the press. Many protests erupted in response to the political conflicts between Tibet and China in countries including Burma, Pakistan, and Japan (and many more). Although the Dalai Lama's pleas proved to be less effective with the passing of time, his office in New York did not cease to lobby several U.N. delegations for the Tibetan cause. Also, the Dalai Lama was aided by a former U.S. delegate to the U.N. Criticism In his 1991 autobiography Freedom in Exile, the 14th Dalai Lama criticized the CIA for supporting the Tibetan independence movement "not because they (the CIA) cared about Tibetan independence, but as part of their worldwide efforts to destabilize all communist governments". In 1999, the Dalai Lama suggested that the CIA Tibetan program had been harmful to Tibet because it primarily served American interests, claiming "once the American policy toward China changed, they stopped their help ... The Americans had a different agenda from the Tibetans."
Trees 10 per person
Cold storage cooling industries
0 carbon
60% ethanol 100% ethanol
Cloud seeding rain
Etc etc measures
Ev renewable very important
Petrol diesel should be phased out
@@mohitanand1844 I hope what you say is true. Would want to see my son living in a better world than we are used to living in.
Great report, as always.
One small error - Shekhar refers repeatedly to UNPD, while he probably means to refer to UNDP (United Nations Development Program). Apparently there is actually a UNPD - this is the UN Procurement Division.
Hi Mr. Gupta i Have seen your reporting getting evolved over the years and now i find it more balanced, factual and devoid of any bias towards neither the left nor right....keep going
Excellent exposition on this topic. Can't say enough good things about The Print. May be I do have some quibbles about Jyoti Malhotra -- but the rest of The Print more than makes up in maintaining the high standards.
Only a Census can give us an exact idea. Unfortunately this government has been SO reluctant to conduct it!
Census won't happen till 2024
Census will happen only after 2024 elections. Govt doesn't want to do the caste census and also doesn't want to provoke nrc, npr thing before elections.
I think in today's digital world, Govt already got almost all of data even without census. Govt schemes after all runs on data.
@@Edward4Plantagenet then why has China and US and several other countries conducted their census in the past 2-3 years
If we keep making things political, we will struggle to make real progress
they're tryna avoid doing the caste census , so they avoided the population census fully.
It's fascinating to note that humankind started with (and in) Africa, it will end there as well since in 100 years, most of the youngsters will be found only there!
If we are not doing census, how are we confirming all these numbers? Our last census was 2011?
is it possible you to predict the scenario with US, if India adopt same like immigration policy
Just 1 issue:- 'peaceful' are producing too much ...
I went to college with a lot of Nigerians in the Boston area. Most of them are still in the US.. primarily in the medical or biotech industries today as Physicians, Scientists, Nurses and Technicians. A few did go back to Nigeria to practice there. The ones still in the US moved to other parts of the country, own nice houses and have raised kids that are now top students while also playing competitive high school sports. My sense is that they are probably one of the most successful groups migrating to the US from Africa.
Mainly from one part of Nigeria. Other part is busy in violence.
What is the relation of that to this episode
@@hbp437 Hi, Nigeria has a large population.. and is mentioned in this episode.
Really good analysis as always; just a small remark, dependency ratios are never negative. They are either less than 1 (somewhat positive scenario) or more than 1 (somewhat troubling scenario).
Maybe the parameter he is using is a log of the reciprocal of the parameter you are using. 🙂.
‘ Nasbandi ‘ initiative by late Sanjay Gandhi during emergency was the correct and proper way to reduce India’s population by now .
Okay so have you castrated yourself?
Hmm
It was a violation of basic human right. If you want nasabandi do yours first. Little shit.
No not at all
Facts never changes Mr Gupta
Thankyou 🎉
Indians are confident of handling population growth under democracy but signals in governence are doubtful and trust deficit of all institutions parliament, judiciary, executive and media. aha ram!
There is no nation on Earth today as well placed & managed as India. All developed nations are on the decline & dying.
Shekar, r u going to discuss abt satyapal malik's interview, or do u think it isn't substantial
It is not substantial
@@Deveshi.A. Will be in bad books with the ruling party. Look at Main Stream Media.
Wow, the opening statement regarding that Chinese official shows that Shri Shekhar Gupta is absolutely naive regarding the CCP.
I think we need to also focus on the indian states whose tfr is significantly lower than the replacement level. The population crunch is one of the biggest risks to human society. In india we need to discuss this so that the govt can introduce a good policy. In my opinion tfr in no case should fall below replacement level.
As much I love Sir's diction and story weaving on complex issues
Here's a summary to get a read on India’s population leap: 5 takeaways, why China is in a sulk, & why growing numbers needn’t be scary
This is an AI generated summary. There may be inaccuracies
00:00:00 - 00:20:00
The video analyzes the population growth in India and China and its impact on the countries politically and economically. India's population is expected to surpass China's, which is irking China as it struggles with an aging population and lack of young people in the workforce. India, on the other hand, has a relatively young population, presenting it with a demographic opportunity. However, India's population growth rate has declined heavily in the past two years, with many states above the national average, and some southern states experiencing population decline. The video presents five key takeaways from this data, emphasizing the need to invest in women and public health, and highlighting the benefits of automation to address the challenges created by a growing population.
00:00:00 In this section of the video, the speaker analyzes the population growth in India and China, and how it impacts the countries politically and economically. India's population is set to surpass China's, which would have caused despondency in India and satisfaction in China a few years ago. However, China is now seemingly irritated by India's population growth and worried about its own population decline. The dependency ratio in China is expected to turn negative in the coming decades due to a lack of young people in the workforce, while India's population is still relatively young. This presents India with a demographic opportunity while China struggles with an aging population.
00:05:00 In this section, the focus is on India's population growth rate, which has declined heavily in the past two years. The national Family Health survey of 2019-21 shows that India's overall population is now at replacement levels, meaning that the total fertility rate (the number of babies women produce within their reproductive age of 16-50) has fallen to 2 from 6 in 1951. Many states in India are above the national average, such as Bihar with a rate of 3.1. Meanwhile, in some southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, population decline has begun. Although India will still continue to produce young people, this will happen slowly, and even until 2100, India's dependency ratio will be quite robust, contrasting the negative dependency ratio that may occur in China in 30 years.
00:10:00 In this section, the speaker refers to a Landsat report which says that global population decline will be much faster than the UN Population Department predicts. They argue that India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will come down to 1.24 by 2100, at which point India's population will have gone down to 109 crores. With this estimation, the Landsat report argues that India will become the most populous country in the world, while China will become the third most populous, behind Nigeria. The report further predicts that much of the population growth in the future will come from Africa, with many countries' populations growing due to high TFRs.
00:15:00 In this section, the video discusses the concerns of China regarding India's population growth and how a decline in global population will begin much faster than anticipated, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The percentage of Africans in the global population will increase, leading to questions of political instability and climate change crisis. The five takeaways from this data include the fact that population growth is no longer a scary prospect, and a rapid decline in population is now more of a concern in many Indian states. The focus should now be on the quality of life, and efforts need to be made to flatten the peak of India's population growth.
00:20:00 In this section, the speaker presents five key takeaways regarding India's population growth. He predicts that the population will peak, but will flatten out earlier than anticipated, creating a need to invest in women and public health to keep the economy growing with an increase in older citizens. He also emphasizes the benefits of automation, citing that it would answer a lot of the problems created by a growing population. He also tells an anecdote about former Indian Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar to illustrate the point that as times change, so do reactions and responses. The speaker notes that the Chinese reaction to India's population growth speaks volumes about their mindset towards such issues.
Why don't UP Bihar demand separate country ? We should gladly give them one.
I am curious to know whether these estimates include the external migration, a population decline can cause.
Once a country develops enough, I think it can start to attract talent and labour from the then labour exporters of the world, just like how India and china has been doing to US and european countries for a while now.
I disagree with SG. As much as he try to sugarcoat it, India's population is a liability. Chinese FM's comment is neither racist nor wrong. Their quality of population is great and productive, unlike ours. Population collapse is only way India can move forward.
Population collapse is biggest threat to any society you dumb fool. China will go the Japan way while US benifits from immigration
For population collapse it will take decades
It's hard to believe that population growth will also increase per capita income, china still has the option to import labour or outsource just like the developed countries
Quality of decision making by the great hall was tested as poor when the policy was changed from one child to two child to three child policy in matter of few years; having said that, India has to train its population as a force for good for the nation and the world
I am Chinese, I think China only needs 400 million people, America only has 400 million people, China has the same land area as America, but China has too many people
Population, if not utilized properly will be a liability not asset. Indian population surely will be a huge liability.
It is asset.
@@nsevv no, more rapists for sure.
Why are your wearing 2 mics?
Dear Shekhar, please don't use percentage with TFR. It a number and not percent.
Must consider stress on land rivers and forests
Well said SG! Population dynamics matter! Population density matters too! Urban centre have higher population densities than rural areas, so resource distribution becomes unequal! This has to be prevented! A Gandhian approach needs to be implemented! Also, more budgetary investment is needed on women- reproductive health, public health, maternal care, neo-natal care, childcare, entry of women into workforce!
"Quality' means their employability - their work skill - their workdays - their sincerity in work etc
Over population is a concern nothing to be proud about it..
5:31 whoever chose that....salute
The most shocking difference is between West Bengal and Bihar one at 1.6 and other at 3.1 respectively, West Bengal government have to shut primary schools due to lack of Students nearly 10,000 schools were shut due very low number of students enrolled on and an average of 3.1 students per class or 25 students in each school, Many might say this due to private schools but there is a serious crisis brewing in these low fertility states. By the Way Lancet report have a problem it has not included the absurd high TFR and sudden rise of TFR of the MENA region in respect to the Income distribution, we can also add AF-PAK region excluding the Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran region in the same dilemma.
Can you elaborate a bit on this?
Shekhar sir is it acceptable that this Govt hasn't conducted general census over this decade.?
I welcome all UPites and Biharis. They are fellow Indians and brothers. Their children study the local language even though they themselves can't.
Demographic dividend can become a 'demographic nightmare' as the unemployment rate in India is at an all time high, and women participation in labor is in decline! India cannot take advantage of this workforce if the Modi government continues to fail even providing Modi's infamous 'pakoda employment'?
What is our Main Stream Media feeding our population? Development ideas or Hindu Muslim conflict
Female participation in the workforce is a disaster for the society. It is your job as a Man to make the money - BE A MAN, not a CUCK.
We broke the myth flattened the curve of population growth.eastern india had invested in education and health.
Building childcare infrastructure is also very important, if we want working women to have children. Most of my acquaintances have only one child.
India’s population is a demographic disaster. We’re not skilling our youth, and most jobs are in the informal sector. This is a dubious distinction . We should be ashamed of ourselves as a country.
quality of population does matter.
This high fertility in India is being seen in Canada everyday. Huge number of young persons are emigrating to low fertility nations like Canada either on PR visas or student visas.
During 2000s there was a saying among so called intelluctual and economist while comparing India and China....India has democracy and demography...Now China is far far ahead of India. Democracy loose Autocracy WINS!!
The West showered China with investment and technology transfer (which they are regretting now), which is why China advanced. No one is doing that to India. Not only that, the West does not want another high-population country growing like China, so they are causing all sorts of disruptions in India through NGOs.
Western INVESTMENT in Technology & Manufacturing helped China rise, not Autocracy.
Just Autocracy by itself will create a Zimbabwe!
You must have a sad and lonely life in you mother's basement
“You cannot force people to have more babies “ sure you can. Just make the birth control options limited in the market. We are kidding ourselves if we think China is not ruthless enough to do that to their people.
Skill development - exporting labour - their remittances - improving manufacturing centers - these should be the concerns for India.
Here China can take cue from Pakistan...shut down electricty by 7 pm😂😂😂
Now I feel good to see so much traffic and crowds in India …
It always a fun to listen to the analysis of retired Uncles like Gupta ji.....he is a sulk.
So many Indians, so many people to know and fall in love with... yet so many are single 🥺🇮🇳💜 don't lose heart, A Billion Opportunities await you
The problem of feeding mouths is a peril of the past. What's the issue today is that the young demographic in the states of central India, which unfortunately has a high TFR rate, are unskilled. The quality of education is subpar with fake colleges churning out graduates with fake degrees.
China is indeed staring at a bleak future demographically, but that means that there's going to be a brain drain from India to China since countries like America are becoming unappealing with less safety and third-rate politics.
I think it's better to focus on manufacturing in unskilled areas and service in cities.
There's no point of such a high population without jobs.
in these estimates is it possible for countries like Nigeria can support 79 crores people as historically they never reached such peak ?
Lesser the population lesser the trr then density of population would also reduce and automation takes place to replace work forces.
Hi sir,
Thank you for this great episode. It was quite succinctly done, and it hit all the headlines and highlighted the opportunities as well as the threats that India faces. You mentioned some states that have seen a decline in TFR, including my own state of Punjab. You further mentioned that we might need to explore the option of old age homes soon. This is quite an interesting point, because we Indians take pride in taking care of our parents and other elders and find this "Western" concept of old age homes repugnant and revolting. However, this may very well be the state of affairs we may be heading to. How that will affect our mindsets, morality and family structure will be fascinating. This concept is even more relevant and applicable to Punjab. Now, admittedly, I may be living in a bubble here, but it seems to me that everyone who is able to is moving abroad here, either to Canada or to Australia. I have seen entire colonies filled with "empty" homes having just the old couple living their as both their young children have shifted abroad. Now, this is not happening in Punjab because we don't have young children. It's because we are sending all our young children abroad in search of a better life and for jobs. This is where lack of any modern city (like Hyderabad, Pune, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Mumbai) is hurting North India big time. Haryana has Gurgaon, UP has Noida, but Punjab has nothing. Mohali seems irrelevant and Chandigarh is already choked. We have no industry or MNCs either.
India is not falling for this. UK and USA just blowing smoke up their @ss. The reals ones know the West are snakes
You are quite right about the lack of a modern city. And we had done a story on this just days ago. Here's the link: theprint.in/ground-reports/punjab-youth-are-unemployable-the-state-doesnt-have-a-bangalore-hyderabad-pune-or-noida/1508514/
Thank you for watching this episode and writing in...best wishes, Shekhar
@@ThePrintIndia Thank you so much for referencing the article sir! It was a great read. I also greatly appreciate the fact that you took the time and effort to read and respond to my comment.
@ThePrint @Javin
This seems to be the case with Kerala as well. There is regular discussions where younger crowd has either migrated outside India forever like Ireland, Canada etc. Unlike the earlier case of Gulf migration this new wave of migration is not coming back! I am not quite sure remittances will increase any more as they are even taking their parents along. If people can't move outside India then at least to neighbouring cities like Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad.. So, it is sadly a state of "retirements homes" and "ghost houses".
India should generate enough jobs to meet its increasing population. Only then can demographic dividend be fully realized.
Need Skilled labor n Scientific methods & investment
@@mg.f.9023 yes, India needs to build a knowledge economy. Schools and colleges should focus on STEM (science, technology, engineering and math).
Never underestimate China in making silly and brutal policies. In a state of panic they can come up with shocking policies.
Example: If some1 wants a government job, they should have minimum 3 children.
These trends are bullshit. They think trends go on forever, people don't do anything about it. If this theory of continuous trends were true. General electric's share should worth in millions. Or Teslas share should worth millions in 2040.
But they do work. You can never implement in a democracy though.
It's obviously hard for you to go out and see the world! The way China now encourages childbearing is social welfare compensation. Some cities have begun to provide rewards of 10,000-30,000 US dollars for the second child, free medical insurance, free schools, and subsidies for infancy! And provide longer paid holidays for parents of children! Retired single-child parents can get compensation of $1000-$2000 per year!
@@jojored7966 now they will reach two billion people in no time. When xi writes in the little red book ,children are the future of our nation ,every communist official tries hard to achieve the biggest child birth growth in the country
These silly policies you mentioned are also in force in Assam and UP
Huge unproductive, unpatriotic population
Is liability but small population
Of Israel, Singapore and Denmark
With qualities, patriotism and great asset to
Nation
Wow! You summarised the problem in two words - unpatriotic and unproductive.
Guptajee, 'Tu idhar udhar ki baat na kar (demographic dividend), yeh bata hamare naujawan videsh jaane ke liye itna utsuk kyon hain? Unki talim aur rozgaari ke liye kya prabandh hain?'
Countries can manage an ageing population by creating more individualistic pension systems (e.g. Australia) and changing the tax base (e.g. taxing wealth than income). Or it can be done by the state underwriting these long term liabilities and making incremental changes (e.g. increasing pension age).
Look at Japan are they managing a healthy tfr of 2 should be managed
It's also the 'amrit kaal' of india where record number of us are giving up their passports for foreign ones. And not a single independent journalist left in mainstream media. Population ka achar daltey hain aur dharm ka affem latey hain.
People are migrating to greener pastures in EU, Canada, US, UK, and Australia because those countries are welcoming more highly skilled migrants to pay for the pensions of their aged population. It has nothing to do with any government in India. This trend will increase further in the future as more and more countries open their borders for Indian migrants no matter which government is in power.
Germany has signed a migration pact recently with Indian government and expects up to 4 lakh migrants every year. Australia also signed the same a few months back.
Even Japan and South Korea are talking to the Indian government for the same.
@@AL-tl9mt so you don't understand what "independent journalism" means. Very typical. And you think your analysis of immigration is accurate? Go to govt controlled media or your oxymoron ecosystem and get your opium fast.
@@AjayTiwari-en9nz where did you get this info from Mr. Tiwari? Do you have any idea what is happening? Don't expect the reality from government controlled media. Come to the US and take a look at the "highly skilled" work force which is coming here.
@Thoughtflux I have way more idea about what is happening in the world than what you do or anyone in your circle does. Moroever, I am an engineer working out of the USA for the last 4 years with a plethora of friends and colleagues working in Canada as well. So, these migration statistics involve people like me. Let me give you a few facts about the migration here in NA from India. First USA.
1) The United States is providing green cards to about 1-1.2 million people every year. Out of which half of them are given to people sponsored by employer.There is a cap on how many people from one country can get the green cards, and the max from one country is 7%. So just 35000 Indians get green cards every year. On top of that, about 40000 Indians come to the US every year on H1B, and some 30K students come here for MS. Both of these crowds mostly decide to pursue their careers and life in the USA. The green card applications have a huge backlog in the USA because of the 7% rule. Currently, those who are getting green cards are the people who had applied for it in 2013, and that is before Modi came to power. After getting your green card, you have to wait for 3-5 years before you become a citizen in the USA, and that means people who applied for green cards in the years before 2010 are getting US citizenship and subsequently leaving Indian citizenship as India doesn't allow dual nationality. So your BS is totally unsubstantiated!
2) The Canadian government runs a welfare state where education and healthcare expenses are convered by state. Canada's white working age population has been in decline since 2000, and after that, Canadians started the point based Visa sponsorship program to continue to retrieve high income taxes from the young migrants coming from other parts of the world. The way their system is designed, it favors white collar workers less than 30 years old. With this, they are attracting migrants who have been educated by other countries, which saves them the cost of training the workforce. About 30% of these visa cum PR sponsorships are being filled by Indians given the huge educated workforce of Indians willing to migrate in a developed country. After 2016, the Trump administration pulled the US out of the NAFTA deal, which resulted in a massive loss of revenue for Canadians as they were importing goods from China and selling them in the US without taxes. The Canadian government increased the migrant quotas after that as they had to get more taxes from a larger working population. Luckily for them, Trump also attacked the H1B program, which forced American firms to set up offices in Canada and hire more people there.
All I am trying to say is that the Western countries have a large aging and dependent population for which a lot of money has to be spent by the states in the form of pensions and subsidized healthcare. This leaves them no option but to import a large tax paying population from other countries in the world. Luckily, India is the largest country in the world that has a surplus of an educated workforce, so the trends are natural.
The same trends were true for China until a decade ago, and the Chinese were the largest source of immigration back then. Since then, the Chinese economy has grown drastically, and the income differential has reduced, and thus, the number of people coming out of China has reduced, but it is still the second largest in both Canada as well as the USA.
@Thoughtflux Also, the workers of Indian ethnicity(both citizens/migrants workers combined) in the USA are the highest earning ethnic group, which is a clear reflection of skills as employers do not pay you money for your brown color. In a capitalist setup, you make them way more money than what they pay you. I understand you might not be very well educated and thus have a terrible inferiority complex, but stats for Indians speak for themselves. While you can go and preach your religious propaganda to your idiots in churches, we Indians are more than happy with our code and STEM degrees.
Great episode
Thank you, Anil. I'm glad you liked this episode. Do keep watching and writing in...best wishes, Shekhar
Is it very unpopular & unsafe to make a cut the clutter on the allegations about Pulwama attack on Modi govt made by Satyapal Malik, ex Governor of J&K? It seems very easy to mock Rahul Gandhi, criticize previous govt policies. But such an important & cluttered issue is going under the RADAR of Shekhar Gupta is not very pleasant.
I strongly agree with you.
India has clearly invested in women. Educated and independent women will mostly be career oriented and picky when chosing life partners. It clearly has helped us flaten the curve.
Don't kid yourself. Every minute a female is raped and the government doesn't do anything to protect them
More population = More consumption = More pollution = Lower Quality of Living
Need 1 child policy also 0 for some peaceful community
More important is Religion out of Politics
What did the Chinese say?