Curious to see more updates to yall’s financials lol. Are you guys planning on making more videos updating your progress? I love seeing the numbers and my wife and I have talked about retiring early so we could travel. Keep the videos coming!
Hey guys! I have a different perspective: We are $32 Trillion in debt. Think about that.....$32,000,000,000,000. The interest on this debt, especially considering current interest rates, is consuming an ever larger portion of the (ever increasing) federal budget. This is simply unsustainable. The huge debt, in my opinion, is a much larger issue that a technical default, which would be a very short-lived event. It appears to me that the folks in congress are trying to get the totally out-of-control government spending to stop, or at least slow down a bit.
Fair point, Dan. I was just really trying to analyze an event we might potentially be able to capitalize on in the next month or two -- was not at all trying to make a political point, though in reading the comments I can see that it came off that way. Will make sure to avoid that in the future, because in general we have very little interest in or deep knowledge about current politics --A
Is it possible that the USD loses its reserve currency status and we see Zimbabwe style hyperinflation? Or we just get used to 5-10% inflation annually? I bought some PMs as insurance. If you have a one ounce K-Rand or gold Eagle and a couple hundred ounces of silver you have more than most. The National Debt will never go away. If we could just stop spending growth we could knock it down to nothing in a decade, but that is not politically possible.
Ya it's very possible we will lose reserve currency status, eventually even without a debt default. But let's hope no hyperinflation -- that's really the nightmare scenario! We also think it's ridiculous how much money our government spends, and feel the same way about it as people who spend themselves into terrible debt -- we gotta stop spending on luxuries and just focus on true necessities!
Elise's face says it all at 1:31 😀and represents what many people think. I agree with Adam's perspective and also view it as an opportunity. I believe that they will come to a last minute agreement but, until they do, anticipate significant volatility which may or may not be amplified by a move towards safer assets. Taking some cues from history, I expect that they may just have to redo the process at least one more time before the end of the year.
That's a good and succinct analysis. I really learned from the initial Covid volatility to keep some cash on hand to take advantage of big drops. That was a super profitable time for is with the major drops and relatively fast recovery, and best case for us (financially speaking) for this situation would be something similar. --A
in brief: The video discusses the potential consequences and opportunities that could arise from a U.S. debt default scenario. The speaker, Adam, explains that there is a chance the U.S. might default if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, potentially leading to the U.S. defaulting on its treasury debt. This could cause people to start fleeing treasuries, cause interest rates to shoot up, and possibly result in a stock market crash. Adam highlights that while such scenarios have been close to happening in the past, they were always resolved at the last minute. However, he suggests that due to the current political dynamics, with a faction of the Republican Party less inclined to negotiation, a default is more possible. If a default does occur, Adam predicts interest rates will shoot up as people will be afraid to hold U.S. bonds, and the stock market will likely plummet. Despite this, Adam maintains that the U.S. system is resilient and would recover, and a significant drop in stock prices could be a great buying opportunity. In preparation for such a scenario, Adam and his partner are holding more cash than usual, ready to invest in tranches if the stock market drops significantly. He believes this strategy allows them to take advantage of a drop and work it for them, rather than against them. Despite their plan, they both express hope that a default will not occur due to the high level of uncertainty and potential negative impacts. However, they also think that a market crash might be the catalyst needed for Congress to resolve the issue. Adam concludes the video by asking viewers to share their plans for dealing with the potential debt crisis.
Thank you for the discussion, I feel less anxious about the debt ceiling issue. I have to admit , the financial state of our economy has me feeling unsteady. I started late to build up money, so basically I’m starting now and I have 5 years to make decent savings and eliminate as much debt as I can. I started with the Acorns app account and it is doing nothing., in fact it goes up 2 cents and down 4 cents, I’m not joking!! Where would a person in my stage of life, start investing to grow savings? Any tips?
Good for you, Elle -- starting late is SO much better than what most people do, which is not starting at all! It's hard to know exactly the right approach without knowing your income, tax situation, risk tolerance, etc. But in general for people starting out investing, a good idea is tax advantaged accounts --401 K or Roth IRA or both, if you can -- and just using index ETFs. The three ETFs that we use are VTI (total US stock market), VXUS (stock market outside the US), and SCHD (a good solid dividend fund). The bulk of our money is in these three, and we think it's a pretty solid portfolio with maybe some treasury bonds thrown in now that they are paying a decent interest rate. ❤️
Great discussion, thanks! Agree, if we screw it up, we (US) will recover due to our system. One thing you did not mention is that if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, the Administration is considering other paths forward (14th amendment, etc.). All of these have never been tested, and have their own consequences. Keep these wonderful discussions coming! My plan.. steady as she goes. Smooth seas don't make for good sailors 😂.
Yes Paul, that's all really going to be interesting. Whichever way it goes, we'll be happy about a solution or eager to capitalize on a market drop! ❤️
I tend to do slow, steady, boring investing into broad market mutual funds. I put 17.5% of every paycheck into my 401k with matching 6%. I put a few thousand a month into my brokerage account into “slow and boring.” We’re DINKs with zero debt, and live below our means. Goal is to be part time within five years.
Love this! Not as exciting as a little market timing or the occasional spec stock, but that kind of consistency is absolutely the way to get it done. You guys are gonna be living living the good life!! ❤️
Ya I really believe it can all work out if Biden and McCarthy -- who are pretty moderate in their respective parties -- get serious about it and don't get derailed by more radical influences.
What's wrong with high-interest money market accounts? They are FDIC insured. Trying to understand why you'd store cash in a checking account that makes next to no interest.
The issue isn't the FDIC insurance -- no one is going to permanently lose the money they have in money market funds up to 250k. The issue is that so many of those funds are heavy on treasuries, and in a really severe crisis could become temporarily unable to give you your cash immediately. The lost interest for a month isn't too significant for us compared to the assurance we'll be able to buy immediately on gigantic market drops as opposed to waiting. You might have noticed that things rip lower (and higher) in a huge hurry these days, and we want to be ready to go. ❤️
@@Heretic10001 The only thing I'm concerned about with assets on brokerages (including idle cash) is whether the FDIC-like insurance that they have for brokerages is as legit as the FDIC insurance.I've tried researching this and haven't really found anything convincing.
Right now I'm just moving my investments into an investment that has lower management fees. I'm going to assume that there will not be a crash and they will raise the debt ceiling. If they don't, I don't have a lot of money invested in the market right now so if the market goes down I'll just buy more at lower prices!
That's exactly how we're seeing it too, Joseph. We're keeping what we already have in stocks right where it is, but if things do take a dive it will be nice to have that cash cushion to buy more at bargain prices! ❤️
Did you consider a bitcoin allocation? Government default is what it was invented for, and that could be a way to get exposure to upside while still hedging.
Definitely did consider it, Sam! Do have some crypto exposure with my Coinbase spec investment, but no actual bitcoin. I'm a little worried that it might get replaced by crypto that is more malleable for things like smart contracts (like ethereum and its ilk). But I def see the attraction of an alternative to fiat currency. --A
Haha you're right about that! Hopefully by hedging the right way we'll have this not only not delay our retirement plans, but even speed them along a little. --A
@@RenegadeRetirement i think it’s great that you have set yourselves up for success for either outcome (hopefully one doesn’t become a reality). Preparation, planning, and research goes a long way!
Well, it's funny, our plan is exactly the same as yours, even though we feel/ hope they will have an agreement at the last minute, it's always exciting / scary to see our government at work, either way, we are ready, good info to help folks think about what could happen, thanks for sharing, Larry Owens, go do the mountaineers route on Whitney, so good !
That is so cool! We're down around San Diego all next weekend for a two-day genetics conference E has. Really want to see the Channel Islands at some point though! --A
Ponder carefully mixing politics and "fancy finance"! The writings and bizarre theories that may/will come from the very shallow end of the Dunning-Kruger pool may just blow your mind ;)
Good advice, Joseph. The funny thing is I'm not political at all -- virtually no ideology other than wanting to be left alone to do my own thing. I'm not at all interested in all the culture war stuff -- this issue just has my attention because it could affect our finances! --A
@@RenegadeRetirement Yup, Although.. it seems, even if unintentionally, in explaining a situation you use the who and why of it.. feathers can get ruffled. Like it needs to be kept purely theoretical ..
I thought this would be more financial advice and less political commentary. Don't you understand that the Federal gov't has over-spent your tax dollars for so many years that there are some responsible people in Congress trying to slow the debt train down? It's not even cutting the budget; it's just piling on massive debt more slowly.
Ya I really intended this just as a financial analysis, Thomas, and in truth I'm so non-political that I naively did not even realize it would come off as political or judgmental. I was just trying to explain my thoughts about what might happen to the stock market in the next 6-8 weeks that we might be able to capitalize on. My mistake for not seeing that it might come off as politically oriented. --A
@@RenegadeRetirement fair enough! I do appreciate your thoughts on the financial impact of the political impasse, so thank you for that! I just get frustrated when the news media try’s to demonize anyone trying to slow down spending by the Feds. We all need to in our own lives and our government does too occasionally. Thanks for responding.
Debt default means furlough for federal employees, including NPS, BLM, and USFS. Time to hit the trails where permits are hard to get, legally, after setting up your limit orders of course.
Did not even think about the hiking implications, but you are so right! Do you know if the NPs will technically be closed, or just open with no enforcement? Could be an amazing opportunity! ❤️
@@RenegadeRetirement Government can close tollbooths and ranger stations, but they can't put a fence around the wilderness. The land belongs to the people. The incompetence of the government does not infringe on my right to enjoy my land.
It's not about power, it's about the fact this country is getting so far in debt, we're getting to the point where we can't even pay the interest off, let lone the principal. We just can't keep spending and spending and spending. Imagine if you ran your finances that way.
Ya we were having that discussion just the other day. It's crazy that our nation accrues so much debt, often with what a responsible individual would see as very frivolous spending. Of course along the same lines, not paying the bills already accrued -- both for nations and individuals -- is not a good way forward. Spending less sure would be, though!
Good commentary but I would say that there are severe partisans on both sides. The Republicans have at least passed a bill and Biden is the one who is saying he will not negotiate at all.
Ya Bill that's a good point -- he def is saying that! I don't actually believe it from Biden though because he's a deal-maker at heart, and so is McCarthy. I think Biden and McCarthy would make a wink-wink deal if they could, kind of how Boehner and Obama did. Hopefully that's what will end up happening anyway, but McCarthy just doesn't have as much breathing room as past Republican speakers have had, which is worrying.
I agree as to severe partisans on BOTH sides. Definitely not a fan of Greene or Gaetz, but then Biden used to be negotiator, but not since becoming POTUS. So the odds of a good outcome are definitely in question. Personally, I would like to see some consessions by Biden, as the National Debt is part of the pressure driving up interest rates (I also think anymore Fed. Interest rate hikes would be misguided).
@@carlstrohmeyer Yeah totally agree. My concern is that none of us really believe Biden at this point has the ability to actually negotiate so the actual back and forth is being done be people who may or may not be doing what Biden himself would have done.
@billalt1009 Exactly! And these puppet masters might be even more extreme on the left than Greene or Gaetz are on the right (which Biden's actions to this point seem to indicate, such as Tlaib and Bush)
It's great new channel.. I do know from some people pretty high up in the banking world.. that US treasuries backup a lot of central bank in the trillions because of their stability. So they are not going to let US treasuries fail
Ya I agree with you in principle, though wouldn't have minded if we had a bit more of a debt default scare in order to pick up some nice bargains. The Fitch downgrade yesterday is providing a bit of a dip, and also some pretty good bond yields! I'm still buying bonds right now with the 10 year above 4%, just adding some ballast to the portfolio with early retirement coming up. Stoked you're liking the new channel -- lots of new content will be coming for it once we're back from the Europe trip! --A
That would actually be the best possible scenario for us -- the market gets spooked and dives a bit so we get some good value buying, but no lasting damage is done and we bounce right back! ❤️
This was way too political. I would have rather heard about the financial impact. Overall, I really like your channel. Keep up the good work with the adventure and finances.
Darn, I really didn't mean for it to be political at all -- I'm certainly not someone with any ideological axe to grind and don't care at all about the culture wars. I just thought in this case the political situation might present a financial crisis/opportunity. But rest assured, no interest in politics/politicians except insofar as it affects our finances or freedoms to do what we want! --A
The reason I heard the politics is you only hated on one side. I know you’re talking just about the current debt ceiling limit but if there were mention of why we needed to raise the debt ceiling, and IMHO that has ti do with the party in office, then I’d feel this was more balanced. The issue it EVERYTHING is political these days. Sadly.
Ya I'm so apolitical that I honestly kind of forgot that -- next time if there's a political aspect of an analysis I'll make sure that it doesn't come off as biased.
I generally hate the stock market and have been wrong trying to time the market basically 100% of the time. I have moved most of my money into real estate as that provides cash flow rather than worrying about capital gains. With that being said I am always looking to profit when possible. I feel like the debt issue will work itself out. I am more worried about the Fed raising the federal funds rate over 5%. The last time they did that the Great Recession happened. If you look at history each time the Fed sharply raises rates, something very bad happens. It's almost as if they are doing this on purpose. Further the Fed jacked up rates very quickly. What should happen is, many local banks will fail and panic will ensue and the economy will crash. How bad is unknown. But Wall Street has a way of causing things to go differently than what should happen so let's hope for the best.
Good for you on the real estate! That's been doing amazingly well the last few years, and somehow is still holding up even with all these interest rate raises. I sure hope the debt thing gets worked out -- a default could have terrible repercussions, and politicians have been surprising me in negative ways lately. But that's what's good about hedging -- you're fairly happy either way. Of course, same is true of your real estate! ❤️
It seems more than a few folks don't understand what raising the debt ceiling is.. some think it is to pay for future "things" when it is authorizing borrowing to pay off debts we have already incurred .. sorta kinda good stuff guys keep it up.
Yes exactly -- it's probably not a thing we should be bargaining over at all. When it comes to politics, the bargaining should be over what we'll spend on in the future because not paying our debts would be disaster for everyone regardless of party or ideological spending priorities.
Agreed, only issue I have is the lack of control our elected leaders of not staying in a budget and not going over their spending and even having the discussion of having a debt ceiling.
Brian why do you think no chance? The credit default swaps are often done by the most in-the-know people, and they're suggesting a much higher chance of default than ever before, well over 10%. Of course that's still over 80% that we don't default, but that's a significant chance, no?
Just my armchair analyst opinion, although some analysts have the chance of default at 3.9% because long dated bond yields have risen so much. Biden could have raised the debt limit a few months ago when the Dem’s controlled both houses but chose to wait so this political gamesmanship could play out. Both sides know we can’t default and it won’t happen. BTW , I’m 61 and retired at 42 except for a 3 year stint while my kids were in college. Highly recommended- good luck!
great commentary,,,,,,,,i dont see a positive outcome until biden is gone... u 2 r brilliant..i luv this new channel u put up....i plan on learnng where the local soup kitchen is n up my panhandling skills ,,maybe buy a walker n an eye patch ,,..every time u cash out dont u hav 2 pay alotta transaction fees ? how can u sell bonds ? are u not locked in?..this is really gonna wipe out the dirt poor ,,
Good questions. Transaction fees are basically nil at Schwab and Merrill now, and you can sell treasuries almost as easily as stocks -- just a couple of clicks! I still think Biden and McCarthy will be able to get a deal done if McCarthy doesn't get blowback from the freedom caucus. They are old school pols who can say one thing publicly but shake hands in private, and I will be shocked if Biden actually refuses to make a backroom deal. But if he does refuse, then I think he's making a huge mistake and yeah, he would need to go. --A
I think all your ideas will fail too when debt defaults. Your idea didn't work for the countries who defaulted. Hyperinflation is most likely scenario which you didn't account for.
ELISE and ADAM a good morning from France. I simply post a courtesy comment, indeed I can not comment on the financial system of the US that I do not know, but I never miss one of your videos. I found ELISE rather worried, as for ADAM it is reassuring. Let us hope that this global recession that every country is currently experiencing is improving rapidly. Kisses to both of you... DAN ELISE et ADAM un bonjour de France. Je poste simplement un commentaire de courtoisie, en effet je ne peux me prononcer sur le système financier des US que je ne connais pas, mais je ne manque jamais une de vos vidéos. J’ai trouvé ELISE plutôt inquiète, quant à ADAM il est rassurant. Espérons que cette récession mondiale que chaque pays ressent actuellement s’améliore rapidement. Bises à vous deux… DAN
Sorry to come off that way, Dean. We're actually so apolitical it didn't even occur to us we were being political. Seeing now from the comments that that was naive, but really were just were trying to predict what might happen with debt ceiling and why. --A
But no one cares that Biden sends millions and millions to Ukraine to keep their social programs going and bailing out their Pensions, while America is going bankrupt. This has to stop. Allowing 5 Million more immigrants into the USA, providing them with housing, food and 800.00 a month, (According to the Senate Hearings testimony from Biden's appointees ) while Americas are homeless and hungry. It just has to stop, enough. Tax incentives for Solar panels and battery operated cars .... and the Richest people now have electric cars and solar panels thanks to the government.
@@RenegadeRetirement All good buddy. Appreciate your response here! I like the way you guys live hard, you're both inspiring and motivational. Love the adventures! I will stay tuned to the treks and your great hiking videos. D.
@@SteveSmith-xw7xi nope. Republicans will be blamed like in the the 90s but Biden isn't as smooth as Bill Clinton to find a way to blame reps. It's a much more charged and bipolar political environment
Ya I want to be really clear that I didn't at all mean to be partisan -- I have no real ideological allegiance. I just think both Biden and McCarthy are old-school guys who could work this out if McCarthy has the freedom to wheel and deal.
Ya I'm not partisan or ideological at all -- I just try to analyze things as best I can in order to predict what will happen economically, and right now there's more unpredictability than usual due to some unusual politicians. --A
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Curious to see more updates to yall’s financials lol. Are you guys planning on making more videos updating your progress? I love seeing the numbers and my wife and I have talked about retiring early so we could travel. Keep the videos coming!
Hey guys! I have a different perspective: We are $32 Trillion in debt. Think about that.....$32,000,000,000,000. The interest on this debt, especially considering current interest rates, is consuming an ever larger portion of the (ever increasing) federal budget. This is simply unsustainable. The huge debt, in my opinion, is a much larger issue that a technical default, which would be a very short-lived event. It appears to me that the folks in congress are trying to get the totally out-of-control government spending to stop, or at least slow down a bit.
Fair point, Dan. I was just really trying to analyze an event we might potentially be able to capitalize on in the next month or two -- was not at all trying to make a political point, though in reading the comments I can see that it came off that way. Will make sure to avoid that in the future, because in general we have very little interest in or deep knowledge about current politics --A
Is it possible that the USD loses its reserve currency status and we see Zimbabwe style hyperinflation? Or we just get used to 5-10% inflation annually? I bought some PMs as insurance. If you have a one ounce K-Rand or gold Eagle and a couple hundred ounces of silver you have more than most. The National Debt will never go away. If we could just stop spending growth we could knock it down to nothing in a decade, but that is not politically possible.
Ya it's very possible we will lose reserve currency status, eventually even without a debt default. But let's hope no hyperinflation -- that's really the nightmare scenario! We also think it's ridiculous how much money our government spends, and feel the same way about it as people who spend themselves into terrible debt -- we gotta stop spending on luxuries and just focus on true necessities!
Elise's face says it all at 1:31 😀and represents what many people think. I agree with Adam's perspective and also view it as an opportunity. I believe that they will come to a last minute agreement but, until they do, anticipate significant volatility which may or may not be amplified by a move towards safer assets. Taking some cues from history, I expect that they may just have to redo the process at least one more time before the end of the year.
That's a good and succinct analysis. I really learned from the initial Covid volatility to keep some cash on hand to take advantage of big drops. That was a super profitable time for is with the major drops and relatively fast recovery, and best case for us (financially speaking) for this situation would be something similar. --A
@@RenegadeRetirement Touché! Great opportunities tend to arrive at a moment's notice and can disappear as quickly as they came.
Here we go again (this time, with the US Government shutdown)! 😂. Are you sticking with the same plan? If not, how have you amended part or all of it?
in brief:
The video discusses the potential consequences and opportunities that could arise from a U.S. debt default scenario.
The speaker, Adam, explains that there is a chance the U.S. might default if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, potentially leading to the U.S. defaulting on its treasury debt.
This could cause people to start fleeing treasuries, cause interest rates to shoot up, and possibly result in a stock market crash.
Adam highlights that while such scenarios have been close to happening in the past, they were always resolved at the last minute.
However, he suggests that due to the current political dynamics, with a faction of the Republican Party less inclined to negotiation, a default is more possible.
If a default does occur, Adam predicts interest rates will shoot up as people will be afraid to hold U.S. bonds, and the stock market will likely plummet.
Despite this, Adam maintains that the U.S. system is resilient and would recover, and a significant drop in stock prices could be a great buying opportunity.
In preparation for such a scenario, Adam and his partner are holding more cash than usual, ready to invest in tranches if the stock market drops significantly.
He believes this strategy allows them to take advantage of a drop and work it for them, rather than against them.
Despite their plan, they both express hope that a default will not occur due to the high level of uncertainty and potential negative impacts.
However, they also think that a market crash might be the catalyst needed for Congress to resolve the issue.
Adam concludes the video by asking viewers to share their plans for dealing with the potential debt crisis.
Nice analysis!
There are many banks that have 4 and over 5% int, on savings acct.
Thank you for the discussion, I feel less anxious about the debt ceiling issue. I have to admit , the financial state of our economy has me feeling unsteady. I started late to build up money, so basically I’m starting now and I have 5 years to make decent savings and eliminate as much debt as I can. I started with the Acorns app account and it is doing nothing., in fact it goes up 2 cents and down 4 cents, I’m not joking!! Where would a person in my stage of life, start investing to grow savings? Any tips?
Good for you, Elle -- starting late is SO much better than what most people do, which is not starting at all! It's hard to know exactly the right approach without knowing your income, tax situation, risk tolerance, etc. But in general for people starting out investing, a good idea is tax advantaged accounts --401 K or Roth IRA or both, if you can -- and just using index ETFs. The three ETFs that we use are VTI (total US stock market), VXUS (stock market outside the US), and SCHD (a good solid dividend fund). The bulk of our money is in these three, and we think it's a pretty solid portfolio with maybe some treasury bonds thrown in now that they are paying a decent interest rate. ❤️
@@RenegadeRetirement thank you! I’ll look into your suggestions! I appreciate your advice.
Great discussion, thanks! Agree, if we screw it up, we (US) will recover due to our system. One thing you did not mention is that if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, the Administration is considering other paths forward (14th amendment, etc.). All of these have never been tested, and have their own consequences. Keep these wonderful discussions coming! My plan.. steady as she goes. Smooth seas don't make for good sailors 😂.
Yes Paul, that's all really going to be interesting. Whichever way it goes, we'll be happy about a solution or eager to capitalize on a market drop! ❤️
Have you looked at MYGA's? Some good companies are paying 5.3%
Yes some of those are really interesting! We should def do a video on that option at some point. ❤️
I tend to do slow, steady, boring investing into broad market mutual funds. I put 17.5% of every paycheck into my 401k with matching 6%. I put a few thousand a month into my brokerage account into “slow and boring.” We’re DINKs with zero debt, and live below our means. Goal is to be part time within five years.
Love this! Not as exciting as a little market timing or the occasional spec stock, but that kind of consistency is absolutely the way to get it done. You guys are gonna be living living the good life!! ❤️
Appreciate your “advice,” let’s hope all works out.
Ya I really believe it can all work out if Biden and McCarthy -- who are pretty moderate in their respective parties -- get serious about it and don't get derailed by more radical influences.
What's wrong with high-interest money market accounts? They are FDIC insured. Trying to understand why you'd store cash in a checking account that makes next to no interest.
The issue isn't the FDIC insurance -- no one is going to permanently lose the money they have in money market funds up to 250k. The issue is that so many of those funds are heavy on treasuries, and in a really severe crisis could become temporarily unable to give you your cash immediately. The lost interest for a month isn't too significant for us compared to the assurance we'll be able to buy immediately on gigantic market drops as opposed to waiting. You might have noticed that things rip lower (and higher) in a huge hurry these days, and we want to be ready to go. ❤️
@@RenegadeRetirement Not to be antagonistic but why not then just but it on a broker like IBKR that pays high interest on idle cash?
Synchrony and others like it will pay 4%+. That’s where I keep most of my cash.
@@Heretic10001 The only thing I'm concerned about with assets on brokerages (including idle cash) is whether the FDIC-like insurance that they have for brokerages is as legit as the FDIC insurance.I've tried researching this and haven't really found anything convincing.
@@mountains1233 Synchrony and Ally and Capital One are banks. Not brokerages. They are absolutely FDIC insured up to $250k.
Right now I'm just moving my investments into an investment that has lower management fees. I'm going to assume that there will not be a crash and they will raise the debt ceiling. If they don't, I don't have a lot of money invested in the market right now so if the market goes down I'll just buy more at lower prices!
That's exactly how we're seeing it too, Joseph. We're keeping what we already have in stocks right where it is, but if things do take a dive it will be nice to have that cash cushion to buy more at bargain prices! ❤️
Did you consider a bitcoin allocation? Government default is what it was invented for, and that could be a way to get exposure to upside while still hedging.
Definitely did consider it, Sam! Do have some crypto exposure with my Coinbase spec investment, but no actual bitcoin. I'm a little worried that it might get replaced by crypto that is more malleable for things like smart contracts (like ethereum and its ilk). But I def see the attraction of an alternative to fiat currency. --A
This uncertainty in the financial markets better not to delay your retirement plans! Politicians don't want an angry Elise and Adam on their hands.
Haha you're right about that! Hopefully by hedging the right way we'll have this not only not delay our retirement plans, but even speed them along a little. --A
@@RenegadeRetirement i think it’s great that you have set yourselves up for success for either outcome (hopefully one doesn’t become a reality). Preparation, planning, and research goes a long way!
Well, it's funny, our plan is exactly the same as yours, even though we feel/ hope they will have an agreement at the last minute, it's always exciting / scary to see our government at work, either way, we are ready, good info to help folks think about what could happen, thanks for sharing, Larry Owens, go do the mountaineers route on Whitney, so good !
We picked up a Whitney pass someone gave up for June, Larry! So weather willing, we'll be there!! ❤️
@Renegade Retirement good for you ! May 20th 10 am Coast Guard Station Channel Islands Harbor open house, love to see you guys
That is so cool! We're down around San Diego all next weekend for a two-day genetics conference E has. Really want to see the Channel Islands at some point though! --A
Ponder carefully mixing politics and "fancy finance"! The writings and bizarre theories that may/will come from the very shallow end of the Dunning-Kruger pool may just blow your mind ;)
Good advice, Joseph. The funny thing is I'm not political at all -- virtually no ideology other than wanting to be left alone to do my own thing. I'm not at all interested in all the culture war stuff -- this issue just has my attention because it could affect our finances! --A
@@RenegadeRetirement Yup, Although.. it seems, even if unintentionally, in explaining a situation you use the who and why of it.. feathers can get ruffled. Like it needs to be kept purely theoretical ..
I thought this would be more financial advice and less political commentary. Don't you understand that the Federal gov't has over-spent your tax dollars for so many years that there are some responsible people in Congress trying to slow the debt train down? It's not even cutting the budget; it's just piling on massive debt more slowly.
Ya I really intended this just as a financial analysis, Thomas, and in truth I'm so non-political that I naively did not even realize it would come off as political or judgmental. I was just trying to explain my thoughts about what might happen to the stock market in the next 6-8 weeks that we might be able to capitalize on. My mistake for not seeing that it might come off as politically oriented. --A
@@RenegadeRetirement fair enough! I do appreciate your thoughts on the financial impact of the political impasse, so thank you for that! I just get frustrated when the news media try’s to demonize anyone trying to slow down spending by the Feds. We all need to in our own lives and our government does too occasionally. Thanks for responding.
You guys are economic rock stars!!
Thanks very much -- our superpower has definitely been cutting down our expenses, but investing has helped a lot as well. ❤️
Debt default means furlough for federal employees, including NPS, BLM, and USFS. Time to hit the trails where permits are hard to get, legally, after setting up your limit orders of course.
Did not even think about the hiking implications, but you are so right! Do you know if the NPs will technically be closed, or just open with no enforcement? Could be an amazing opportunity! ❤️
@@RenegadeRetirement Government can close tollbooths and ranger stations, but they can't put a fence around the wilderness. The land belongs to the people. The incompetence of the government does not infringe on my right to enjoy my land.
It's not about power, it's about the fact this country is getting so far in debt, we're getting to the point where we can't even pay the interest off, let lone the principal. We just can't keep spending and spending and spending. Imagine if you ran your finances that way.
Ya we were having that discussion just the other day. It's crazy that our nation accrues so much debt, often with what a responsible individual would see as very frivolous spending. Of course along the same lines, not paying the bills already accrued -- both for nations and individuals -- is not a good way forward. Spending less sure would be, though!
@@RenegadeRetirement Imagine what we could do with the money spent just repaying interest.
Good commentary but I would say that there are severe partisans on both sides. The Republicans have at least passed a bill and Biden is the one who is saying he will not negotiate at all.
Ya Bill that's a good point -- he def is saying that! I don't actually believe it from Biden though because he's a deal-maker at heart, and so is McCarthy. I think Biden and McCarthy would make a wink-wink deal if they could, kind of how Boehner and Obama did. Hopefully that's what will end up happening anyway, but McCarthy just doesn't have as much breathing room as past Republican speakers have had, which is worrying.
I agree as to severe partisans on BOTH sides.
Definitely not a fan of Greene or Gaetz, but then Biden used to be negotiator, but not since becoming POTUS. So the odds of a good outcome are definitely in question.
Personally, I would like to see some consessions by Biden, as the National Debt is part of the pressure driving up interest rates (I also think anymore Fed. Interest rate hikes would be misguided).
@@carlstrohmeyer Yeah totally agree. My concern is that none of us really believe Biden at this point has the ability to actually negotiate so the actual back and forth is being done be people who may or may not be doing what Biden himself would have done.
@billalt1009 Exactly!
And these puppet masters might be even more extreme on the left than Greene or Gaetz are on the right (which Biden's actions to this point seem to indicate, such as Tlaib and Bush)
So great you can rely on Adam Elise, or maybe it's only looking like that... I have my personnal guess on that... 🎉😊
Haha thanks Serge! Yes he has definitely helped me to get my finances in order. ❤️ --E
@@RenegadeRetirement was a little sure of that Elise.. Have a great evening.. 🤗👏
It's great new channel.. I do know from some people pretty high up in the banking world.. that US treasuries backup a lot of central bank in the trillions because of their stability. So they are not going to let US treasuries fail
Ya I agree with you in principle, though wouldn't have minded if we had a bit more of a debt default scare in order to pick up some nice bargains. The Fitch downgrade yesterday is providing a bit of a dip, and also some pretty good bond yields! I'm still buying bonds right now with the 10 year above 4%, just adding some ballast to the portfolio with early retirement coming up. Stoked you're liking the new channel -- lots of new content will be coming for it once we're back from the Europe trip! --A
Closest estimate you can have for a U.S. debt default is the Japanese economy I’m the late 80s.
That is a really interesting and also scary point! ❤️
I think it will be a last minute decision and negotiation
That would actually be the best possible scenario for us -- the market gets spooked and dives a bit so we get some good value buying, but no lasting damage is done and we bounce right back! ❤️
This was way too political. I would have rather heard about the financial impact. Overall, I really like your channel. Keep up the good work with the adventure and finances.
Darn, I really didn't mean for it to be political at all -- I'm certainly not someone with any ideological axe to grind and don't care at all about the culture wars. I just thought in this case the political situation might present a financial crisis/opportunity. But rest assured, no interest in politics/politicians except insofar as it affects our finances or freedoms to do what we want! --A
The reason I heard the politics is you only hated on one side. I know you’re talking just about the current debt ceiling limit but if there were mention of why we needed to raise the debt ceiling, and IMHO that has ti do with the party in office, then I’d feel this was more balanced. The issue it EVERYTHING is political these days. Sadly.
Ya I'm so apolitical that I honestly kind of forgot that -- next time if there's a political aspect of an analysis I'll make sure that it doesn't come off as biased.
I generally hate the stock market and have been wrong trying to time the market basically 100% of the time. I have moved most of my money into real estate as that provides cash flow rather than worrying about capital gains. With that being said I am always looking to profit when possible. I feel like the debt issue will work itself out. I am more worried about the Fed raising the federal funds rate over 5%. The last time they did that the Great Recession happened. If you look at history each time the Fed sharply raises rates, something very bad happens. It's almost as if they are doing this on purpose. Further the Fed jacked up rates very quickly. What should happen is, many local banks will fail and panic will ensue and the economy will crash. How bad is unknown. But Wall Street has a way of causing things to go differently than what should happen so let's hope for the best.
Good for you on the real estate! That's been doing amazingly well the last few years, and somehow is still holding up even with all these interest rate raises. I sure hope the debt thing gets worked out -- a default could have terrible repercussions, and politicians have been surprising me in negative ways lately. But that's what's good about hedging -- you're fairly happy either way. Of course, same is true of your real estate! ❤️
It seems more than a few folks don't understand what raising the debt ceiling is.. some think it is to pay for future "things" when it is authorizing borrowing to pay off debts we have already incurred .. sorta kinda good stuff guys keep it up.
Yes exactly -- it's probably not a thing we should be bargaining over at all. When it comes to politics, the bargaining should be over what we'll spend on in the future because not paying our debts would be disaster for everyone regardless of party or ideological spending priorities.
Agreed, only issue I have is the lack of control our elected leaders of not staying in a budget and not going over their spending and even having the discussion of having a debt ceiling.
There is absolutely no chance the U.S. will default on its debt.
Brian why do you think no chance? The credit default swaps are often done by the most in-the-know people, and they're suggesting a much higher chance of default than ever before, well over 10%. Of course that's still over 80% that we don't default, but that's a significant chance, no?
Just my armchair analyst opinion, although some analysts have the chance of default at 3.9% because long dated bond yields have risen so much. Biden could have raised the debt limit a few months ago when the Dem’s controlled both houses but chose to wait so this political gamesmanship could play out. Both sides know we can’t default and it won’t happen. BTW , I’m 61 and retired at 42 except for a 3 year stint while my kids were in college. Highly recommended- good luck!
Wow retired at 42 is really impressive. So looking forward to having that freedom!!!
great commentary,,,,,,,,i dont see a positive outcome until biden is gone... u 2 r brilliant..i luv this new channel u put up....i plan on learnng where the local soup kitchen is n up my panhandling skills ,,maybe buy a walker n an eye patch ,,..every time u cash out dont u hav 2 pay alotta transaction fees ? how can u sell bonds ? are u not locked in?..this is really gonna wipe out the dirt poor ,,
Good questions. Transaction fees are basically nil at Schwab and Merrill now, and you can sell treasuries almost as easily as stocks -- just a couple of clicks! I still think Biden and McCarthy will be able to get a deal done if McCarthy doesn't get blowback from the freedom caucus. They are old school pols who can say one thing publicly but shake hands in private, and I will be shocked if Biden actually refuses to make a backroom deal. But if he does refuse, then I think he's making a huge mistake and yeah, he would need to go. --A
I think all your ideas will fail too when debt defaults.
Your idea didn't work for the countries who defaulted. Hyperinflation is most likely scenario which you didn't account for.
ELISE and ADAM a good morning from France. I simply post a courtesy comment, indeed I can not comment on the financial system of the US that I do not know, but I never miss one of your videos. I found ELISE rather worried, as for ADAM it is reassuring. Let us hope that this global recession that every country is currently experiencing is improving rapidly. Kisses to both of you... DAN
ELISE et ADAM un bonjour de France. Je poste simplement un commentaire de courtoisie, en effet je ne peux me prononcer sur le système financier des US que je ne connais pas, mais je ne manque jamais une de vos vidéos. J’ai trouvé ELISE plutôt inquiète, quant à ADAM il est rassurant. Espérons que cette récession mondiale que chaque pays ressent actuellement s’améliore rapidement. Bises à vous deux… DAN
Merci beaucoup, Dan, c'est tres gentil. Nous esperons aussi que la recession mondiale sera terminee bientot!
Ahh… lefties. Ok wish you all the best. Too political 😢
Sorry to come off that way, Dean. We're actually so apolitical it didn't even occur to us we were being political. Seeing now from the comments that that was naive, but really were just were trying to predict what might happen with debt ceiling and why. --A
Seemed pretty apolitical to me, Adam. Some people are sensitive and looking to be provoked by the slightest nuances.
But no one cares that Biden sends millions and millions to Ukraine to keep their social programs going and bailing out their Pensions, while America is going bankrupt. This has to stop. Allowing 5 Million more immigrants into the USA, providing them with housing, food and 800.00 a month, (According to the Senate Hearings testimony from Biden's appointees ) while Americas are homeless and hungry. It just has to stop, enough. Tax incentives for Solar panels and battery operated cars .... and the Richest people now have electric cars and solar panels thanks to the government.
@@RenegadeRetirement All good buddy. Appreciate your response here! I like the way you guys live hard, you're both inspiring and motivational. Love the adventures! I will stay tuned to the treks and your great hiking videos. D.
I agree 100% on Adam's assessment on politics and the state of the Republican party
You mean both parties?
@@SteveSmith-xw7xi nope. Republicans will be blamed like in the the 90s but Biden isn't as smooth as Bill Clinton to find a way to blame reps. It's a much more charged and bipolar political environment
Ya I want to be really clear that I didn't at all mean to be partisan -- I have no real ideological allegiance. I just think both Biden and McCarthy are old-school guys who could work this out if McCarthy has the freedom to wheel and deal.
Ya I'm not partisan or ideological at all -- I just try to analyze things as best I can in order to predict what will happen economically, and right now there's more unpredictability than usual due to some unusual politicians. --A