6 Biggest Earnings Predictions This Week
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- Опубліковано 3 лип 2024
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00:00 Introduction
02:11 Goldman Sachs
05:58 UnitedHealth Group
10:24 ASML
17:00 Netflix
35:20 American Express
36:40 Proctor & Gamble
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I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances.
Alright, you win. I'll talk about TSMC next quarter!
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I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.
Glad you’re talking about ASML. I’ve been dca’ing for the past 10 years. Never sold, I will not sell until retirement. It’s the best stock in the Netherlands
Must be a large portion of the portfolio with its gains
@@fitbh703yeah next to the DCA for nvidia, msft, apple and monster over the last 10 years 😂😂😂
You forget TSMC the most important semiconductor manufactoring in the world
True
Fr
his answer about TSMC will be talking about how awesome NFLX is because of one year of postivie Cash Flow
TSM has been releasing figures every week for a month. huge pump. they are doing well but cyclicality of business has not changed. feels like good earnings priced in. gotta take in account ccp risk.
@@darrenhere5856it’s a Taiwan company.. not China so there is no ccp.. the bigger issue would be US ban on chips/ wafer to sell to them
TSMC: "Netflix who?? 🤨"
TSMC is worth 740 billion or about 3x the market value of NFLX
I realized TSMC was a big company. Didn’t realize it had so many fans. I’ll cover it next quarter.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours thank you Joseph, it would be appriciated!
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours probably and and nvda fans that care about what tsmc is doing
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Gloria Robinson
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $7500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
Joseph finally talking about ASML. Good choice
ASML is fantastic. I’m always happy to add to my ASML stock.
You missed TSMC
A full video on Amex would be very interesting as they’re both a competitor to Visa and Mastercard and in their own league!
Amex support a credit risk whereas Visa and Mastercard don’t. That’s an enormous difference.
What about TSMC? 😂
Great video Joseph, thank you!
glad you speak about UNH, went into it following some digging on US market after i watched you for months !
He tricked me into watching a Netflix marketing campaign. Great video as always!
Will you please look at Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)? What are your thoughts?
Like the detailed coverage of NFLX! 😀
Great observations in your Netflix breakdown of subscriber growth. You always present such useful analysis! Looking forward to the qualtrim updates. Thank you for these gems. 👊🏾
Tsmc and Asml are both the most exciting of these companies ❤ Been investing for years🎉
Great video Joseph and thank you
Bought United Healthcare on Friday by coincidence
The one I care the least from all the major companies: Netflix.
I know. They're shady with bad movies and yet they make more money than everybody. 😔
I put time stamps so you can skip around to segments that interest you.
@@JiveCinema That's exactly what makes it a good investment. It has great performance, and is still disliked among investors making it underpriced very often... though I wouldn't say it's underpriced atm
Great content 🎉thanks
As a KLAC employee. Not enough people gives this company and stock enough credit.
It's next week tho
I follow KLAC. I wish I'd bought at the low 18mo ago. KLAC stock is up 50% in the past year. be happy.
Loving the ‘ignore the $’ instructions for Netflix chart.
Big fan .. enjoying the channel.
🇨🇦
Can you do a video about your opinion on JEPI/JEPQ?
I ran a DCF on UNH appears to be undervalued
An update on the Informatica acquisition and when you're going to add more CRM would be very interesting.
Yes please!! I bought CRM because of his video, now I’m wondering if I should add more?
Joseph, thanks for another great video. I'm confused aboout one thing: when it comes to ASML, you talk about explosive FCF. But your Qualtrim chart shows that it's been going down quite significantly over the past two years. I'm a bit lost on why that is, given their monopolistic position, and why you consider this explosive. Any insights would be appreciated!
Thanks.
United Healthcare group got hit with a big ransomware attack which may lead to unclear earnings report. Very interested to see if it’s a beat or miss.
Finally an ASML analysis. Now time to buy 😜
Any update on apple stock?
UNH has high goodwill which was a red flag last time I had looked at it.
whew tough slide today and for the past couple of weeks, save us earnings! Would love to hear current thoughts on Crowdstrike when their earnings roll around.
Excellent view on Netflix. The long term trend is clear but the market sentiment is agressive.
...also think nokia is a bit interesting. thinking about buying
Thoughts on Salesforce in talks to buy Informatica ? Stock took a dive because of it
he said in his video that they shouldnt make big buys anymore, so now im not confident in that company
@@bydocexx7867timestamp pls
very disappointing if true....
لا أحد يستطيع أن يتقوع السوق أغلب هذه الأسهم أنخفضت بشدة
Great video
My concern about NFLX has always been about their TAM. It's probably not growing. It must increase at the same rate as the overall population. So, the question in my mind is the extent to which it has maxed out their TAM. Also, NFLX has so much subscriber churn that I don't feel confident about its growth rate. Given that, I'm surprised that you consider it compounding machine.
Congratulations on your new KPI graphs. Well done!
One thing I would like to see is the percent of stock sold short -- also the percent of stock owned by institutions vs retail holders.
The netflix addressable market should grow considerably over the coming decades as more developing nations push for high speed internet as part of their core infrastructure, this is something that every government wants because of all the related benefits that come from it.
What about Süss Microtec? Als competitor for ASML?
Joseph - thanks for all of your awesome videos! You just talked about UNH, can you please also make a video on Humana, it has been a great compounder for long time but badly beaten up currently. Also, you love restaurants stocks, can you please also make a video on Portillo’s stock, Chicago based hot dog /QSR company, one of the highest per restaurants revenue in QSRs, also one of the most loved fast food in Chicago region. Thank you in advance!
Im up over 55% on ASML alone, in unrealized profits, debating wether to sell before market closes in 40 mins
Thanks Joesph for your valuable insights, With the acquisition on Informatica, CRM is down 7%, time to add more shares? Share your comments on CRM acquiring Informatica
I'm also interested in the acquisition of Informatica by CRM. Joseph, I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on this matter.
He’s done a whole video about how he doesn’t like when companies do awusitions
Do you consider buy Vici at that low??
He used to focus on dividends. Not any more. Dividends are irrelevant.
Hi Joesph, I know you usually stay away from the macro side of things but could you post a video going over the general economy as of now.
I love your style of videos so this would be interesting! Thanks
His style is very chill. I like it too 😊
“Insurance is very risky!!” *has majority of portfolio in tech* (Warren Buffett disagrees btw)
Ooh, Joseph likes UNH? I am yet uncertain about the long-term landscape of their industry (out of ignorance), but was very interested in the recent dip and their relatively consistent past results.
how is tsmc not exciting???
Can you review TGTX, earnings report Monday 4/29 pre-market- appears bullish so far, want to hear a few more opinions
Why would you look at the FCF of a Bank?
Meant to look at EPS, but it shows the same unpredictable earnings over time.
Besides the subscriptions. what else has netflix to get ur money??
Late fees? I don't noo! 🤣 🤣 🤣
This market is too complex for me right now.
I have a question Joseph. Do you think it's better to invest on a monthly basis as the money comes or save a lumpsome and then invest in a company?
Also ROKU, earnings Thursday 4/25 after market
And WOLF, earnings Wednesday 4/24 after market
And ENPH, PARA, VRT, ALGN- if you can please
Joseph, you really make good videos! Im kinda new to investing and i find you are easy to understand you explain information about companies really well. Your knowledge is very impressive especially for someone who is as young as yourself. You dont look old like i do 🤣🤣🤣😆
TSMC is not boring 🙃
Are you buying the dip after earnings now?
TSMC!
Netflix has cemented itself in 1st place. What streaming service do we think will cement itself in 2nd place? I still think it’s up for grabs.
Healthcare and insurance are regulated industries, that is not a disadvantage.
Unlike Amazon, Google and Nvidia that face countless regulations regarding privacy and AI guidelines.
Long on UNH 📈
VAT Group would be another monopoly. They make the filters/clean air rooms ASML's machines need to be able to operate.
What a timing
Glad you didn’t talk about $TSM I rather it keep flying low and slow and not be pumped..
A lot of the subscriber growth will be in lower pricing markets though. I have the highest tier of netflix in Poland because I visit there a lot, with 1 extra user. Think I pay 15 euro / 17 dollars a month.
But it should be 27 euro if I had it in ireland
Please explain how Netflix is 35 times their profits? Netflix is no more a growth company.
You vaguely say "insurance companies use float and leverage which is risky". However, UNH's long-term debt to capital is just 40%. They are NOT a levered business at all. It's just a business compounding at 13% annually
"UnitedHealth Group (UNH) liabilities are the total value of all possible claims against the corporation. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, UNH had $179.299 billion in total liabilities, a 9.16% increase from 2022"
I own UNH and have a feeling the earnings are not going to be great tomorrow due to high medical costs relating to surgeries, medicare rates increase not on par with expectations and also the cyberattack on their pharmacy business change healthcare.
Only a matter of time before the Chinese catch up ASML.
ASML earnings will disappoint which is expected. They are expected to have a slow quarter they have already said this in advance. Since stock price just kept going up after this news I expect a pullback this Wednesday. I will be buying some more if that happens.
Boom!
Hey Joseph love your videos. Do you think you can do a video about “meme stocks”? Just a video where you talk about what you think of them and their financials eg. Palantir, Sofi, Robinhood etc. Thanks
How difficult is it to remove a dollar sign? This had to be rushed out? Seems amateur
PG is a stock I want to own forever but just waiting for the price. This company will fundamentally last forever cause demand will never stop for goods.
Netflix post covid growth scare seems like a tiny blip, but at the time even Reed Hastings was saying perhaps the addressable market was smaller than they thought and sentiment was that the covid lockdowns had fast tracked market saturation … it was all rather concerning actually
Everyone i know has canceled Netflix. I'll probably be buying this week
You made a great point 😂 everybody has an opinion on Netflix and I feel called out as a hypocrite because im one🤦🏿♂️
The cyber attack has definitely effected UNH’s revenue, but I think that’s a big part of why it’s down so much the last month
NVIDIA is also a true monopoly. There's no company that is doing what they are doing. AMD is like 5 years behind them in terms of technology. They've been playing catchup for so long but still lagging behind
TSLA isnt on 17th?
Tesla is on the 23rd
Funny that you complain about ASML appearing expensive when it's just as expensive as COST haha
There's no innovation at Costco, especially when compared to ASML. Funny to see how his own preferences cloud his judgement.
No judgement is clouded. Did I ever say Costco was cheap right now? I have routinely, in every video recently, said Costco is really expensive right now and I wouldn't buy in at the current valuation.
I wouldn't be buying into Costco right now, just like I'm not buying into ASML right now... I have more flexibility in holding a company than I do buying into it new.
I'd also prefer owning the company that requires no innovation to grow revenue 10% a year than the company that needs the most advanced innovation to continue its moat.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I don't understand the tolerance to hold. COST is insanely overvalued to the point that any money currently in a COST position will likely underperform the market going forward. Their EPS from FY23 is $14.16. This is expected to grow at about 9% CAGR for the foreseeable future so in 5 years, this would give EPS of about $22. These estimates already include an increase in membership fees and the fact the they open new stores every year.
Let's run a few scenarios to determine what future returns you might see:
• PE 35 * $22 eps = $770 estimated price target and total CAGR of just 1.6% including dividends. This is pathetic. You'd be better off buying a bond. Keep in mind that PE of 35 is still a premium valuation over the market. There were plenty of years where COST traded at PE of 25-30 and if it falls back there, the total return is negative...
• PE 40 * $22 eps = $880 estimated price target and total CAGR of just 4.3% including dividends. This is also pathetic and you may as well buy bonds.
• PE 50 * $22 eps = $1100 estimated price target and total CAGR of just 9% including dividends. The only way to get a decent return is to assume that COST deserves to trade at PE of 50 forever. To me, this is a very risky investment thesis.
Even when accounting for a capital gains tax from selling the position today, you'll come out ahead if COST has even the slightly multiple contraction from where it is today so holding just doesn't make any sense.
TSMC WILL BEAT 📈💯
Can’t buy ASML on Robinhood such a bummer 😮
Then use a real broker.
I only use Robinhood app. I didn't realize there are companies you cannot invest in using them. So far I have been pretty happy using them to invest.
How did you say Netflix is more exciting than ASML and TSM with a straight face
You can skip half the video when he talks about Netflix.
Also CSX? It's an railroad which is an important part of the economy.
Everyone's entitled to their opinion but saying that Netflix is the only interesting earnings this week, I feel, is condescending to other companies people following your channel invest in... Especially when you say other companies earnings are boring
By interesting I mean in terms of short term volatility and options. This isn’t an opinion. This is backed up by looking at volume of shares traded and implied volatility.
Idk why you always intentionally leave out TSMC. China wont even get mad
YOU know whats funny, im almost 47 and i have never have used Netflix not even one time!! Im not even sure how it works 🤣.
lol…$TSM is the bloodline of all mag 7, AI, Important to US defense and Japan :)
First
Unh is a buy in my opinion, but my morals just don't let me invest in Healthcare insurance companies, profiting from literal sick ppl is a little too soulless for me even as a Capitalist
❤
Over 20 different South Korea content... Yep this entire video was rushed not edited or quality checked at all disappointing Joseph
Ngl I’m a Netflix subscriber but their content is getting way too woke and the price is getting too high. Genuinely thinking of unsubscribing. Not sure if my thoughts are universal though tbh
so wtf is going on today... the sell off is crazy
Not much... just a couple core Middle Eastern countries being on the verge of a new war 👀
WTF. NO TSM COMMENTARY? AHHHHHHHHHHHH
Day 1 of asking joseph for ideal payment for Dutch subscriber :)
ASML ftw ofcourse 🇳🇱
I'm not sure what that is, but Patreon accepts a variety of payment methods. From Visa, Mastercard, Discovery, PayPal, Apple Pay, Venmo. If those don't work I can send you a stripe payment that also has more options.