To quote myself from the video: "the only reason this works rn is that not many people know about it" And I have no idea how did you even managed to, in less than an hour make the price of the frags two times higher than even the peak during the end update but I can't imagine it's gonna help you still profit from it xd you have to wait until everyone forgets about it again sorry xd also discord if you want: discord: discord.gg/suweRaE99H
i met a group of players that was doing the same thing as me like 3 months ago so it was known for a while, but made it not profitable sometimes when whales would buy out the market. i guess now it really is dead.
So technicly java.util.Random is open source and i could reverse enginner seed by drops and then we could figure out if seed is based on something in the game but there is also a chance that hypxiel devs just used public Random() { this(System.currentTimeMillis()); } and the didn't set the seed so in that case we really cant predict exact ms a server is running on becose ping isn't a static number. And as a guy who enjoys coding i could say that we have like a 90% chance that they just used Random() witchout seed. But there still is hope 👀 Edit: I think i might have got something... Edit 2: I'm sure i got it.
Waiting until everyone forgets about it is honestly such a real thing in skyblock. There's been so many profit methods that die when entering the public view, but as soon as everyone assumes "oh it's dead." The methods resurface, sometimes only to a portion of their previous effectiveness, other times all the way back to their original form. It almost moves in cycles and it's usually work checking old methods like this to see if anything has changed. One such example is enchanted golden carrot craft flip which goes through phases of being very profitable.
This isnt the only thing like this, high class dice cost around 30-40 mil on ah, so lets say 35m and since they cost 6.66m to roll lets say 7m to make the math easier, 7x6 equals 42 million so lets say 40 mil because we rounded to 7 mil so 35 mil plus 40 mil is 75 mil of cost and you gain 100 mil for getting it sooooooo.@@SomethingLT this prob also works with the lower tier dice but i havent played in a while and forgot their prices
People were doing this like 4-5 months ago. Well me and my friends were, we found it on accident. Some people caught on randomly. You can kind of see when people figured it out based on the Holy Dragon market.
The position of the glass panes help indicate the time cycle allowing you to get repeat cycles of items consistently but I never figured how to get one single result consistently
13:19 the rates listed on the wiki give a greater than 1 in 10 chance, and with no ender mite there’s a 5.8% chance of getting 5 residue out of 20 rituals, with a mythic lvl 100 this is raised to 8.1%. Neither of those numbers are rare at all over such scales. The issue here seems to be simply that nobody ever bothered calculating the expected value of sacrifices since it is terminally unfun.
The fact that the percentages correlated to religious groups in poland in 2011 makes me think there is a plethora of hidden lore in hypixel which noone has uncovered cus that would be crazy.. or is it (Vsauce music plays)
the chances in bedrocks chest in f7 is the chances of skyblock players having a loving father figure as chance of handle and everyone else as any other drop
Actually setting a snail back 10 meters would remove 12.5 minutes of their movement because the average snail travels 0.048 kph being 4.8 10 meters/ hour which equates to 12.5 minutes every 10 meters
To test your hypothesis that something is wrong with the alter, you should try a p-value test on the transition probability P(Bonus now | Not Bonus previous) and P(Not Bonus now | Bonus Previous). If the probability of Bonus is independent each time you sacrifice just like a coin flip, P(Bonus now | Not Bonus previous) = P(Bonus) and P(Not Bonus now | Bonus previous) = P(Not Bonus). But if it isn't, that would prove that the alter doesn't work like a coin flip and depends on initial drop or lobby code, etc.
He should instead run a binomial test to see if the proportion of not bonus is reasonably close to what it is said to be. Would work much better as we are trying to find if it stays true to listed probabilities vs being affected by previous event
The randomness could also be based on your Minecraft mood level. Since the ground is endstone your mood will still rise. It’s basically a clock and your position could be another variable in that statistic.
its not, time is the best indication as they can have the seed on the server side. The default Minecraft Randomness genorator uses time. There is no reason they would do it on anything else as thats manipulatable, you cant change server time
I mean, I suppose this method works in waves, as long as the admins don't patch it. Because yes, a lot of people will try it, which will ruin prices. But, with prices ruined, then it will no longer be profitable, meaning prices will eventually return to what they were, making it profitable again. And Holy Frags in particular will return to being cheap very quickly, since Dungeons provides a steady supply and they are otherwise worthless.
I actually have a section of my own personal spreadsheet where I concluded that it was profit as well. However sadly I realized that I thought the chance of Ritual Residue being rolled was 10.84% when the wiki says that there is a "45% chance of bonus items being rolled" which could be boosted by 10% with Endermite passive. Which I figured meant at most it had a 4.878% chance of being rolled. Then I concluded that it would actually be a loss. However I didn't do extensive actual testing in-game. So I never realized how much money could actually be made from it.
Here’s the thing with randomness, people expect a certain level of variation, otherwise it doesn’t feel truly random. Apple had to redesign their shuffle feature because people complained that it didn’t feel random enough and some songs played more than other. There was also a professor in a statistics class that told their students to flip a coin 100 times and record the results, but they were also allowed to make up results. The professor was almost always able to make out who faked it because almost every person who did the coin flip had a repeating result of 6 or more. I guess what I am trying to say is that we can’t get a long with truly random results
There are so many IRL traders and people just doing skyblock for irl money via making/duping coins and selling coins that you'd think one of them by now would've found out how to overcome hypixel's randomness code. But not yet.
A snail travels about 25 meters in a full day, meaning that’s about 1 meter per hour(some snails go faster), so setting it back 10 meters means you have cost that snail about 10+- hours of work.
@@incription its like you almost understand but still dont. why would any form of server sided randomness change per-player. it just calls a default java rand method for a number up to 100, then compares it to the drop table (1-10 being a drop, 11-30 being another, etc) the seed for this is probably set when the JVM is initialized
@@sugihara5091 that's not true, look up minecraft enchantment exploit. There is a player seed that only changes when youdo certain actions like sprint eat food drop items etc
@@jamessmith4172 the point is randomness cannot be changed per player or by doing any of the goofy things that was happening in the video. there is a seed tied to the JVM and thats it. i just gave the simplest way to make drops. (you could also generate a number from 1-50 or whatever you need, idk why you fixated on that tbh)
i love these train of thought mania where you MUST figure out how something really works, rng in games is a very interesting thing, technically makes truth the "if you fail a lot on something cheap, gives u higher chances of succeed on something expensive later"
i literaly gambled a whole inventory of dragon boots (different type of them) and i didn't win a single thing. that means the odds are now in my favor (time to gamble some more)
You can perform a statistical test on the results to see different kinds of probabilities in the numbers. For example, testing what the probability of a number showing up given the previous number is a one or zero. That is, checking the probabilities of pairs of digits. It's a small sample, but you can get a little insight from it this way. Lets call the two sets of data you provided C (for the coin flip) and H (for hypixel), a success a "1" and a failure a "0". In C, there are 41 1's and 31 0's, while in H there are 35 1's and 37 0's. Nothing strange. Looking further, though, in C there are 17 "11"s, 23 "10"s, 23 "01"s, and 8 "00"s. In H there are 22 "11"s, 12 "10"s, 12 "01"s, and 25 "00"s. There's more pairs of equivalent digits than non-equivalent digits in H... but it could be sample bias. In a perfectly uniform rng, you would expect there to be an equal amount of all pairs of digits; however, if this pattern continued in H, then you could reasonably expect that if you fail or succeed, you will achieve the same result again more often than not. As you evaluate more and more groupings (n=3, n=4, and so on), you'll find that in H larger groupings of the same result occur more often than other groupings ("0000" and "1111" are way more common than anything else in the sequence). If you take advantage of this, you would be better off betting on whatever was the last outcome than just randomly betting on the same outcome. There's probably some deeper prediction you can put into place, but this would allow you to abuse the system without much effort or research.
I did this method with my coop member for several months earlier this year. One thing you missed to max profit is to max out the cooled forges perk in the ice essence shop for a chance to get double essence when you salvage. Selling the dragon essence accounted for a large portion of the profit when I was doing this method.
3:39 Google said the average garden snail can travel at 0.048km/h if we divide this value by 3.6 we get that it can travel 0.013333m/s And using that displacement = speed *time We can rearrange to find Time = distance/speed Knowing this if we set the snail back 10m and the speed of the snail is 0.013333m/s(converted from km/h because units must be the same) Time = 10/0.013333 Time = 750s Dividing by 60 to get minutes then 60 again to get hours then 24 to get days and 7 to get weeks Time = 0.00124 weeks Or about 12 and a half minutes Anybody who believes it would take 2 weeks for a snail to travel 10 m has never seen a snail because yes they travel slow but they don’t travel that slow
The chance of a getting an item is based of probability and each time you roll a dragon residue is a 5.42% chance. So essentially after many many attempts the odds will be closer to the theoretical probability. Another example is the coin flip the theoretical probability is 50% for heads and tails and each time you have 50% shot at landing heads or tails. You have to conduct many trials to reach the theoretical probability example equation is 0.5^100 you use the power 100 to the chance 0.5. Someone can fix my math I am pretty sure what I am saying is right I don’t have my notes to check.
why must you show the world my money making method? I thought I was the only one who knew about the existence of this altar, but now everyone does......
i am >99% certain that the rng cannot be manipulated in this way for a couple of reasons: 1) it would take many rolls to determine which seed you are on, as there are not so many possible outcomes 2) the rng value is likely not only used for the altar and therefore changes unpredictably 3) even if you could determine your rng seed, it's not very helpful--the best you can do is check if it's unusually bad and if so switch lobbies but especially with the setup with another player/alt this will pretty much never be worth the time
the player cannot change the seed. it is tied to the JVM which is generated only when the server is booted up. there is one seed for every single player and you cannot change it. basic programming knowledge
A while ago I did minor quick math and determined that you can buy more drag essence from selling the pieces or fragments than you could from sacrificing, but that was a while ago
A little while ago, before this video released, I accidentally caused a uproot in the price of young dragon frags by buying backpacks worth of boots and frags to sacrifice and sell them for sigs and ghits. If only there was a bazaar tracker.
the gaming community will always fascinate me, some people will spend hours of their lives just to try and find some obscure way to make more money, just by digging into the game and researching it. amazing.
Hello, nerd here, I found the segment about how the RNG could be rigged really interesting, but I'm kind of said it never got beyond "yeah this looks kind of fishy". It would be super cool to plug the numbers into the binomial distribution (it's just a simple formula that's perfect for this situation, the wikipedia page is very helpful) to get some concrete chances on how likely it was for you to get results as good as you've been getting. Because over some number of repeats, unlikely things just happen, and bias can lead you to believe that the odds are rigged when really they aren't.
I thought it was ironic how he spoke about how obvious gambling was a losing game, but proceeded to believe that the altar was rigged from just observation. Gambling can seem profitable in the short run the same way the altar can seem nonprofitable in the short run. 🙄
His example at 13:10 receiving 5/12 with expected probability 1/20 has p = 0.00018. Not low at all considering he specifically chose this set of 12 rolls.
3:36 But every time you set him back to the start, he gets faster based on the log of how far he went past the start, until, eventually, you have him going around the world millions of times.
This is literally the first video of saw of this creator and i subscribed before the end of the video, i might be baked but as both a minecraft fan and software engineer and software product manager,this dude is extremely good. Definitely recommend for first viewers.
Congrats on finding this. If you want a challenge there is another money making method basically just clicking that makes even more. I moved on from sacraficing boots when i found it
If you did actually get 5/12 when the expected rate is 1/20, the z-score of that is roughly 2.57 and the p-value is roughly 0.0051, so that would actually be statistically significant (unless I did the math wrong).
I'm fairly sure long streaks of good / bad results are rly common. It just doesn't actually feel random because humans absolutely fucking stuck at randomness.
I have been using this method ever, since the altar came out, even going as far to buy a mythic ender mite pet. But now that the prices have gone back up, it’s no longer profitable
I have suspected that an rng exploit like this would exist with something like archfiend dice but i never got around to testing it. Using an alt to start a sacrifice chain could be considered against the no multiboxing rule. Also I would highly recommend not advertising even the possibility of a game breaking economy altering exploit such as an rng exploit if you don't want to get pigicialed
Which speed did you use to calculate a snail needing two weeks for 10 meters? Even plugging in the slowest speed I can find (0.00086 m/s = .86mm/s) that is still around 3.096 meters/hour which means it would complete the 10 meter racetrack in around 3.23 hours Calculations: m/s -> m/h: .86 * 3600s = 3096 -> 3096mm/h mm/h -> m/h: 3096/1000 = 3.096 -> 3.096m/h or m/s -> m/h: 0.00086*3600 = 3.096 -> 3.096 m/h (yay) plug that into the formula time = distance/speed we get T = 10m/3.096m/h = 3.2299h which I round up to 3.23h I technically didn't need to convert 0.00086 m/s to mm/s t m/h but it gives us an easy to understand result XD if one were to plug in the much more commonly found 0.03 mph -> 0.8m/minute -> about 12.5 minutes to complete 10 meters those "2 Weeks" become even weirder XD Those values of course depend on the type of snail we find for example plugging in .0013m/s another value I found would have the snail complete this race in about 2 hours and 8 minutes or plugging in the values from the hit video "Measuring a Snails Speed" by Major Biology gives us around 1 hour of making the long and difficult arduous journey of 10 meters i merely plugged in the slowest value I could find (My research also amounted to around 5 minutes of googling so if you can find a slower value I dare you to XD)
In fact to calculate the speed something would have to go at to need 2 Weeks for 10 meters can be easily solved by pluging the values into the equation speed = distance/time: v = 10 m/2w = 5 m/w = around 8.2 micrometers/s or around 0.000008267mm/s (or around 30 millimeters per hour) you would have to travel around 3.8 years to make a kilometer at that speedXD
I'm not sure how Hypixel's RNG works but usually devs will use something like your computer's time and date so that you can't replicate the same seed several times.
well you can literally change the time and date on you computer... but yeah that's what was always at the back of my mind that they could just set it to something you actually can't replicate, or to something totally random you would never figure out, but on the other hand sometimes game devs could be on a time scramble or simply dont care and go the easy way out, you never know ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I did this gambling like 2-3 months ago and made like 300-400m but The prices went down so I stopped and 2 days ago I got wiped For some random reason :-:
i already did it a lot i take the coins from my bank, buy the cheapest dragon fragment type on the bazaar, go to the end, craft the armor pieces, and then sacrifice the pieces
Dude when I started my profile I did this and got rich I no time, but at the time the ritual residue was hella expensive, so were horns and summoning eyes while frags hella cheap Also great video btw the edits are awsome and also cool to see this method in a vid
Oh did you know that rat cheese can sell for 3k so on average you can get a rat killed and drop 6 cheese and it takes you approx 30s to find it you could be making 36k per minute leading to about a 20 ish mill per hour.
For a bet to take into effect both sides have to agree on it. By betting 5 bucks that we don't gamble, we either A) don't gamble, and as such do not take the bet as betting is gambling or B) We do gamble, in witch case we do take the bet, because we are gamblers and betting is what we do. So that bet is a guaranteed loss. No wonder you don't gamble.
I actually knew about it long before this video by seeing random guy bragging about 40MpH profit but I had no coins back then and couldn't possibly imagine the profits were this high
Twoje umiejętności storytellingu są zdumiewające! Bardzo chcę zobaczyć gdzie będziesz za kilka lat i czy będziesz z tego talentu korzystać. przepraszam za użycie polskiego ale to powininem ćwiczyć xd a no i losowość już tak ma że trolluje podejrzanymi rezultatami - można znaleźć na ten temat tysiące prac, a szanse że w danym ciągu będzie ileś pod rząd itp się raczej liczy inaczej niż to robiłeś ale nie jestem pewien
Your storytelling skills are amazing! I really want to see where you will be in a few years and whether you will use this talent. I'm sorry for using Polish but I should practice xd and yes, it's random and it trolls with suspicious results - you can find thousands of works on this topic, and the chances that there will be several in a row in a given sequence, etc. are rather calculated differently than what you did, but I'm not sure
To quote myself from the video: "the only reason this works rn is that not many people know about it"
And I have no idea how did you even managed to, in less than an hour make the price of the frags two times higher than even the peak during the end update
but I can't imagine it's gonna help you still profit from it xd
you have to wait until everyone forgets about it again sorry xd
also discord if you want: discord: discord.gg/suweRaE99H
vburger
i met a group of players that was doing the same thing as me like 3 months ago so it was known for a while, but made it not profitable sometimes when whales would buy out the market. i guess now it really is dead.
i just checked bazaar tracker and yeah ur losing money now. >5.5k / holyfrag is not worth it
So technicly java.util.Random is open source and i could reverse enginner seed by drops and then we could figure out if seed is based on something in the game
but there is also a chance that hypxiel devs just used
public Random()
{
this(System.currentTimeMillis());
}
and the didn't set the seed so in that case we really cant predict exact ms a server is running on becose ping isn't a static number.
And as a guy who enjoys coding i could say that we have like a 90% chance that they just used Random() witchout seed. But there still is hope 👀
Edit: I think i might have got something...
Edit 2: I'm sure i got it.
Waiting until everyone forgets about it is honestly such a real thing in skyblock.
There's been so many profit methods that die when entering the public view, but as soon as everyone assumes "oh it's dead." The methods resurface, sometimes only to a portion of their previous effectiveness, other times all the way back to their original form. It almost moves in cycles and it's usually work checking old methods like this to see if anything has changed. One such example is enchanted golden carrot craft flip which goes through phases of being very profitable.
The opening is a lie gambling is always a win as long as you don’t quit before you hit it big and skyblock is no exception stay strong.
90% of gamblers quit before there big win
so true, i will now sell my house to gamble
when gambling you can win up to 2000% of your money but you can only lose 100% do the math
@@B.CypherNah it‘s 99% never stop gambling guys!!!
i meannnnn you can lose 200%
Just loan some money to gamble!
I wouldn't be surprised if there is going to be a part 2 to this.
👀
yeah its been like whole hour after this video got uploaded, he surely figured this out already
😮
This isnt the only thing like this, high class dice cost around 30-40 mil on ah, so lets say 35m and since they cost 6.66m to roll lets say 7m to make the math easier, 7x6 equals 42 million so lets say 40 mil because we rounded to 7 mil so 35 mil plus 40 mil is 75 mil of cost and you gain 100 mil for getting it sooooooo.@@SomethingLT this prob also works with the lower tier dice but i havent played in a while and forgot their prices
@@AniBerry1 you dont have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6 lmao
He definitely figured it out and is hiding the fact hes making over 360m/h
He was prob told by an admin not to disclose it
People were doing this like 4-5 months ago. Well me and my friends were, we found it on accident. Some people caught on randomly. You can kind of see when people figured it out based on the Holy Dragon market.
@@crimson3673Glad I decided to get my holy dragon frags before then, how much were they during that spike?
@@crimson3673 I just lost all my money trying to do this :(
The position of the glass panes help indicate the time cycle allowing you to get repeat cycles of items consistently but I never figured how to get one single result consistently
13:19 the rates listed on the wiki give a greater than 1 in 10 chance, and with no ender mite there’s a 5.8% chance of getting 5 residue out of 20 rituals, with a mythic lvl 100 this is raised to 8.1%. Neither of those numbers are rare at all over such scales. The issue here seems to be simply that nobody ever bothered calculating the expected value of sacrifices since it is terminally unfun.
its 5 out of 12 so its much more unlikely
The fact that the percentages correlated to religious groups in poland in 2011 makes me think there is a plethora of hidden lore in hypixel which noone has uncovered cus that would be crazy.. or is it (Vsauce music plays)
But that's a theory, A GAME THEORY.
a
d
o
the chances in bedrocks chest in f7 is the chances of skyblock players having a loving father figure as chance of handle and everyone else as any other drop
Actually setting a snail back 10 meters would remove 12.5 minutes of their movement because the average snail travels 0.048 kph being 4.8 10 meters/ hour which equates to 12.5 minutes every 10 meters
You... you didnt need to say 4.8 10. You couldve just said 48 meters/hour
To test your hypothesis that something is wrong with the alter, you should try a p-value test on the transition probability P(Bonus now | Not Bonus previous) and P(Not Bonus now | Bonus Previous).
If the probability of Bonus is independent each time you sacrifice just like a coin flip, P(Bonus now | Not Bonus previous) = P(Bonus) and P(Not Bonus now | Bonus previous) = P(Not Bonus). But if it isn't, that would prove that the alter doesn't work like a coin flip and depends on initial drop or lobby code, etc.
He should instead run a binomial test to see if the proportion of not bonus is reasonably close to what it is said to be. Would work much better as we are trying to find if it stays true to listed probabilities vs being affected by previous event
i just learned about this omg
The randomness could also be based on your Minecraft mood level. Since the ground is endstone your mood will still rise. It’s basically a clock and your position could be another variable in that statistic.
what should i say this is Too mathy or too minecrafty?
its not, time is the best indication as they can have the seed on the server side. The default Minecraft Randomness genorator uses time. There is no reason they would do it on anything else as thats manipulatable, you cant change server time
We will find how the hypixel randomness works - your dedication fascinates me
bro really leaked that just after I discovered it and made 10m only, casualty ruining this method 😂😭
great video(as always)
I mean, I suppose this method works in waves, as long as the admins don't patch it.
Because yes, a lot of people will try it, which will ruin prices.
But, with prices ruined, then it will no longer be profitable, meaning prices will eventually return to what they were, making it profitable again.
And Holy Frags in particular will return to being cheap very quickly, since Dungeons provides a steady supply and they are otherwise worthless.
I love that you incriesed the price of the cheap dragons fragment from about 1800coins to like 14k. This man is actually crazy
You know its a good video when slt uploads
I actually have a section of my own personal spreadsheet where I concluded that it was profit as well. However sadly I realized that I thought the chance of Ritual Residue being rolled was 10.84% when the wiki says that there is a "45% chance of bonus items being rolled" which could be boosted by 10% with Endermite passive. Which I figured meant at most it had a 4.878% chance of being rolled.
Then I concluded that it would actually be a loss. However I didn't do extensive actual testing in-game. So I never realized how much money could actually be made from it.
Here’s the thing with randomness, people expect a certain level of variation, otherwise it doesn’t feel truly random. Apple had to redesign their shuffle feature because people complained that it didn’t feel random enough and some songs played more than other. There was also a professor in a statistics class that told their students to flip a coin 100 times and record the results, but they were also allowed to make up results. The professor was almost always able to make out who faked it because almost every person who did the coin flip had a repeating result of 6 or more.
I guess what I am trying to say is that we can’t get a long with truly random results
I'm a simple man, I see Something Like That,
I click.
0:16 you just lost 5 bucks
There are so many IRL traders and people just doing skyblock for irl money via making/duping coins and selling coins that you'd think one of them by now would've found out how to overcome hypixel's randomness code. But not yet.
Zajebisty materiał, wstawka o randomości przypominała takiego Vsauca, dawaj więcej takich rzeczy, nikt na YT nie ma takiej jakości
on jest polakiem? xD
A snail travels about 25 meters in a full day, meaning that’s about 1 meter per hour(some snails go faster), so setting it back 10 meters means you have cost that snail about 10+- hours of work.
NO I FEEL BAD NOW
Perhaps look into player seeds? The player seed changes every time you create particles, which happens when you sprint.
hypixel runs on spigot which has fixed that exploit a long time ago
@@incription its like you almost understand but still dont. why would any form of server sided randomness change per-player. it just calls a default java rand method for a number up to 100, then compares it to the drop table (1-10 being a drop, 11-30 being another, etc) the seed for this is probably set when the JVM is initialized
@@sugihara5091 that's not true, look up minecraft enchantment exploit. There is a player seed that only changes when youdo certain actions like sprint eat food drop items etc
@@sugihara5091What makes you think this is how it calculates rand? Some of the values for these RNG drops are less than 1-100.
@@jamessmith4172 the point is randomness cannot be changed per player or by doing any of the goofy things that was happening in the video. there is a seed tied to the JVM and thats it. i just gave the simplest way to make drops. (you could also generate a number from 1-50 or whatever you need, idk why you fixated on that tbh)
90% of gambles quit before big win is a bad thing since 90% of gamblers NEVER WIN
i love these train of thought mania where you MUST figure out how something really works, rng in games is a very interesting thing, technically makes truth the "if you fail a lot on something cheap, gives u higher chances of succeed on something expensive later"
Yo dude, halfway into the video and just wanna say your videos have always been amazing. Genuinely love em!
i literaly gambled a whole inventory of dragon boots (different type of them) and i didn't win a single thing.
that means the odds are now in my favor (time to gamble some more)
Does it matter what type of boots you put in?
@@squido2 no
You can perform a statistical test on the results to see different kinds of probabilities in the numbers. For example, testing what the probability of a number showing up given the previous number is a one or zero. That is, checking the probabilities of pairs of digits. It's a small sample, but you can get a little insight from it this way.
Lets call the two sets of data you provided C (for the coin flip) and H (for hypixel), a success a "1" and a failure a "0".
In C, there are 41 1's and 31 0's, while in H there are 35 1's and 37 0's. Nothing strange.
Looking further, though, in C there are 17 "11"s, 23 "10"s, 23 "01"s, and 8 "00"s. In H there are 22 "11"s, 12 "10"s, 12 "01"s, and 25 "00"s. There's more pairs of equivalent digits than non-equivalent digits in H... but it could be sample bias. In a perfectly uniform rng, you would expect there to be an equal amount of all pairs of digits; however, if this pattern continued in H, then you could reasonably expect that if you fail or succeed, you will achieve the same result again more often than not.
As you evaluate more and more groupings (n=3, n=4, and so on), you'll find that in H larger groupings of the same result occur more often than other groupings ("0000" and "1111" are way more common than anything else in the sequence). If you take advantage of this, you would be better off betting on whatever was the last outcome than just randomly betting on the same outcome. There's probably some deeper prediction you can put into place, but this would allow you to abuse the system without much effort or research.
3:40 actually average speed of snail is 5cm/minute so it would take about 3-4 hours of his life to walk that 10meters back
Wow bro I have just came back to the skyblock side of youtube and I have to say that your youtube channel has grown so much. Congrats on reaching 90k.
I did this method with my coop member for several months earlier this year. One thing you missed to max profit is to max out the cooled forges perk in the ice essence shop for a chance to get double essence when you salvage. Selling the dragon essence accounted for a large portion of the profit when I was doing this method.
Where is that btw
@@KenithLemley in the ice essence shop
@@namespaced4437 I meant the shop- like where lol
@@KenithLemley jerry island, behind the small cave where people used to fish before new place released
@@cyr0_gd ah
this guy man. he does it again. favorite skyblock youtuber and i havent played the game for 2 years
drop me ur money XD
13:55 how do people fall for AI hallucinations in this day and age
"Part 2, how I made billions from reselling frags to the bazaar"
The editing quality of this video is simply superb.
jokes on you, every money making method in this game is just clicking one single button over and over again (or hold it down)
3:39 Google said the average garden snail can travel at 0.048km/h if we divide this value by 3.6 we get that it can travel 0.013333m/s
And using that
displacement = speed *time
We can rearrange to find
Time = distance/speed
Knowing this if we set the snail back 10m and the speed of the snail is 0.013333m/s(converted from km/h because units must be the same)
Time = 10/0.013333
Time = 750s
Dividing by 60 to get minutes then 60 again to get hours then 24 to get days and 7 to get weeks
Time = 0.00124 weeks
Or about 12 and a half minutes
Anybody who believes it would take 2 weeks for a snail to travel 10 m has never seen a snail because yes they travel slow but they don’t travel that slow
Very interesting. Great job on the video, it is clean and easy to understand, and quite intriguing as well.
remember guys never give up always keep gambling dont listen to your family and therapists just keep going you'll win eventually
its always a good year when slt uploads
The chance of a getting an item is based of probability and each time you roll a dragon residue is a 5.42% chance. So essentially after many many attempts the odds will be closer to the theoretical probability. Another example is the coin flip the theoretical probability is 50% for heads and tails and each time you have 50% shot at landing heads or tails. You have to conduct many trials to reach the theoretical probability example equation is 0.5^100 you use the power 100 to the chance 0.5. Someone can fix my math I am pretty sure what I am saying is right I don’t have my notes to check.
I am surprised no one corrected the video 😅
why must you show the world my money making method? I thought I was the only one who knew about the existence of this altar, but now everyone does......
i am >99% certain that the rng cannot be manipulated in this way for a couple of reasons:
1) it would take many rolls to determine which seed you are on, as there are not so many possible outcomes
2) the rng value is likely not only used for the altar and therefore changes unpredictably
3) even if you could determine your rng seed, it's not very helpful--the best you can do is check if it's unusually bad and if so switch lobbies but especially with the setup with another player/alt this will pretty much never be worth the time
the player cannot change the seed. it is tied to the JVM which is generated only when the server is booted up. there is one seed for every single player and you cannot change it. basic programming knowledge
@@sugihara5091 well yes but you could switch to a different server with a different JVM (even though this won't work for other reasons)
A while ago I did minor quick math and determined that you can buy more drag essence from selling the pieces or fragments than you could from sacrificing, but that was a while ago
You honestly make the highest quality hypixel skyblock videos
A little while ago, before this video released, I accidentally caused a uproot in the price of young dragon frags by buying backpacks worth of boots and frags to sacrifice and sell them for sigs and ghits. If only there was a bazaar tracker.
"Put your house on the line and you'll end up just fine"
"I don't gamble."
I'm gonna bet 5 dollars..-
this sounds like something that the spiffing brit would do, great work
the gaming community will always fascinate me, some people will spend hours of their lives just to try and find some obscure way to make more money, just by digging into the game and researching it. amazing.
ikr
I love how one small thing always becomes this giant rabbit hole
Hello, nerd here, I found the segment about how the RNG could be rigged really interesting, but I'm kind of said it never got beyond "yeah this looks kind of fishy". It would be super cool to plug the numbers into the binomial distribution (it's just a simple formula that's perfect for this situation, the wikipedia page is very helpful) to get some concrete chances on how likely it was for you to get results as good as you've been getting. Because over some number of repeats, unlikely things just happen, and bias can lead you to believe that the odds are rigged when really they aren't.
I thought it was ironic how he spoke about how obvious gambling was a losing game, but proceeded to believe that the altar was rigged from just observation. Gambling can seem profitable in the short run the same way the altar can seem nonprofitable in the short run. 🙄
His example at 13:10 receiving 5/12 with expected probability 1/20 has p = 0.00018. Not low at all considering he specifically chose this set of 12 rolls.
love seeing your content just get more and more incredibly done-- great vid SLT!
frags more than doubled in price from this video... what if he was just chilling with a bunch of them
Imagine staying in one spot in Crypts and dont moving and just slaying revs for rng xD
xD
The reflection in your eyes was really cool! I don't think I've seen that before
Im so dumb i just realised he did this so he could sell all the frags for a massive stepup
If only you had the ability of Laplace’s Demon
The video: 🤯
The editing: 🔥
And to top it off you literally have the perfect voice
and that is 1 of my secret money making methods gone ig :P
still a awesome vid like always! keep it up.
ah same, back to investing
3:36 But every time you set him back to the start, he gets faster based on the log of how far he went past the start, until, eventually, you have him going around the world millions of times.
its crazy that even the supposed max money per hour (150m) is less than the max amount you could make with armadillo mining before it was pat ched
13:50 that was unexpected lmao
Crazy shit, I invested 300million and made over 700mil
thankyou sooo much
POLAND MENTIONED 2:43 😳😳😳😳😳
fun fact - holy boots are now skyrocketing in price and are 800k at the time of writing this lol
This is literally the first video of saw of this creator and i subscribed before the end of the video, i might be baked but as both a minecraft fan and software engineer and software product manager,this dude is extremely good. Definitely recommend for first viewers.
Congrats on finding this. If you want a challenge there is another money making method basically just clicking that makes even more. I moved on from sacraficing boots when i found it
wanna spill 👀
Tell us
Hint?
Ah maybe im tempted to go for 1 b on a new account in 24 hours
🧢
This is why holy drag frags were so expensive
If you did actually get 5/12 when the expected rate is 1/20, the z-score of that is roughly 2.57 and the p-value is roughly 0.0051, so that would actually be statistically significant (unless I did the math wrong).
Jokes on you, I don’t even have to click a button for Mithril mining, I just hold it down and move my mouse 😂
11:59 maybe the player count in the lobby multiplied by like the time or something.
I'm fairly sure long streaks of good / bad results are rly common.
It just doesn't actually feel random because humans absolutely fucking stuck at randomness.
the religious groups thing is a result of the pareto principle.
I have been using this method ever, since the altar came out, even going as far to buy a mythic ender mite pet. But now that the prices have gone back up, it’s no longer profitable
''It's only random until you found out the chances''
-Something like that
love how u sort of hid u using protector and old dragon frags so they won’t go up as much
how about SkyBlock level 100 in one week on new profile?
Bro you drop banger after banger, never change man you're the only original Skyblock UA-camr
2:44 wait... you're polish? that's an instant sub
I have suspected that an rng exploit like this would exist with something like archfiend dice but i never got around to testing it. Using an alt to start a sacrifice chain could be considered against the no multiboxing rule. Also I would highly recommend not advertising even the possibility of a game breaking economy altering exploit such as an rng exploit if you don't want to get pigicialed
Pigicialed?
@@JustARandom_ pigicial youtuber advertised a dupe exploit and got banned for a week or something
Bro just single handedly increased gambling by so much
Which speed did you use to calculate a snail needing two weeks for 10 meters?
Even plugging in the slowest speed I can find (0.00086 m/s = .86mm/s) that is still around 3.096 meters/hour which means it would complete the 10 meter racetrack in around 3.23 hours
Calculations:
m/s -> m/h: .86 * 3600s = 3096 -> 3096mm/h
mm/h -> m/h: 3096/1000 = 3.096 -> 3.096m/h
or
m/s -> m/h: 0.00086*3600 = 3.096 -> 3.096 m/h (yay)
plug that into the formula time = distance/speed we get
T = 10m/3.096m/h = 3.2299h which I round up to 3.23h
I technically didn't need to convert 0.00086 m/s to mm/s t m/h but it gives us an easy to understand result XD
if one were to plug in the much more commonly found 0.03 mph -> 0.8m/minute -> about 12.5 minutes to complete 10 meters those "2 Weeks" become even weirder XD
Those values of course depend on the type of snail we find for example plugging in .0013m/s another value I found would have the snail complete this race in about 2 hours and 8 minutes
or plugging in the values from the hit video "Measuring a Snails Speed" by Major Biology gives us around 1 hour of making the long and difficult arduous journey of 10 meters
i merely plugged in the slowest value I could find (My research also amounted to around 5 minutes of googling so if you can find a slower value I dare you to XD)
In fact to calculate the speed something would have to go at to need 2 Weeks for 10 meters can be easily solved by pluging the values into the equation speed = distance/time:
v = 10 m/2w = 5 m/w = around 8.2 micrometers/s or around 0.000008267mm/s (or around 30 millimeters per hour)
you would have to travel around 3.8 years to make a kilometer at that speedXD
I'm not sure how Hypixel's RNG works but usually devs will use something like your computer's time and date so that you can't replicate the same seed several times.
well you can literally change the time and date on you computer... but yeah that's what was always at the back of my mind that they could just set it to something you actually can't replicate, or to something totally random you would never figure out, but on the other hand sometimes game devs could be on a time scramble or simply dont care and go the easy way out, you never know ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Would be server side time in this case. You don't ever want to trust the client, nor would you want to use their data for randomness :p
The title and content and thumbnail of this video are all amazing. This is definitely blowing up
I did this gambling like 2-3 months ago and made like 300-400m but The prices went down so I stopped and 2 days ago I got wiped For some random reason :-:
i already did it a lot
i take the coins from my bank, buy the cheapest dragon fragment type on the bazaar, go to the end, craft the armor pieces, and then sacrifice the pieces
This reminded me of when people lobby swapped while doing dragons back I'm the day to drop superior
Dude when I started my profile I did this and got rich I no time, but at the time the ritual residue was hella expensive, so were horns and summoning eyes while frags hella cheap
Also great video btw the edits are awsome and also cool to see this method in a vid
imagine if just before he published this he bought millions of drags and got billions of coins from the price surge
this coincidence at 13:45 killed me 🤣
Oh did you know that rat cheese can sell for 3k so on average you can get a rat killed and drop 6 cheese and it takes you approx 30s to find it you could be making 36k per minute leading to about a 20 ish mill per hour.
Local man discovers he has the super power to manipulate probability
I did this going for ritual residues, it ended up being way cheaper than just buying them and I spent all the dragon essence rather than selling it
Thank you something like that, I can finally predict my next rng drop
This man flips the economy upsidown every time he uploads
Tbh hypixel probaly has a box where they are despensing a chicken egg
congrats you discovered the difference between procedural random and true random
For a bet to take into effect both sides have to agree on it. By betting 5 bucks that we don't gamble, we either A) don't gamble, and as such do not take the bet as betting is gambling or B) We do gamble, in witch case we do take the bet, because we are gamblers and betting is what we do. So that bet is a guaranteed loss. No wonder you don't gamble.
I actually knew about it long before this video by seeing random guy bragging about 40MpH profit but I had no coins back then and couldn't possibly imagine the profits were this high
I say there is random, I present you, RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR
Twoje umiejętności storytellingu są zdumiewające! Bardzo chcę zobaczyć gdzie będziesz za kilka lat i czy będziesz z tego talentu korzystać. przepraszam za użycie polskiego ale to powininem ćwiczyć xd
a no i losowość już tak ma że trolluje podejrzanymi rezultatami - można znaleźć na ten temat tysiące prac, a szanse że w danym ciągu będzie ileś pod rząd itp się raczej liczy inaczej niż to robiłeś ale nie jestem pewien
Your storytelling skills are amazing! I really want to see where you will be in a few years and whether you will use this talent. I'm sorry for using Polish but I should practice xd
and yes, it's random and it trolls with suspicious results - you can find thousands of works on this topic, and the chances that there will be several in a row in a given sequence, etc. are rather calculated differently than what you did, but I'm not sure