I agree with your premise. My only nagging issue with Strauss/ howe theory is that, a theory should be evident in the distant past, and , prior to the end of the medieval era, It's not clear to me if it is. I actually emailed Neil howe years ago about this topic, if he planned a future book showing correlation to the theory in the medieval or ancient past, but never got a clear response.
I'm not surprised. What sold me on their theory wasn't the history part; it was their explanation for why Millennials are different from Gen X and similar (in an archetypal sense) to the G.I. Generation. I'm a Millennial (translation: I've been one my whole life); their explanation made sense to me and resonated with my experience, instantly. But they got over their skis on the details in the history portion of the theory. Neil's new book gets into so much detail it loses sight of the fact that the theory is built on predictions and presumptions from over 25 years ago. That's why I've created this series: to fill the gaps and make it relevant to current events, not something which merely reaffirms a theory.
Yes, human nature is complex, and broad cyclical statistical trends in society are not the only factor that drives us, whether as individuals or as groups of individuals.
I definitely agree we have entered a New Phase. I think this hamas thing is going to have major impacts on events in the coming years. I think its major even redraw the political polarization we've been having in this country.
rapid unexpected wars? political issues? other than the timeline of events, and whether this cycle is abnormally long or not, I don't follow as to what this theory is not describing in its limited way, I also work in quantitative finance and in general, we see fundamentals like prices for things can not always go up at increasing rates, so there is an inevitable mean reversion and decline, and it is physically impossible for this to not happen, I think what generation theory is getting at is something like this, that there is no up without some type of down at some point
and seriously, the Israel has been in a nearly constant state of war for thousands of years, and in particular the last few decades, if anything, it was predictable that we would get another conflict there just as a matter of course
It means hold on to your seat, Dorothy, because Kansas is going 'bye-bye'.
I agree with your premise. My only nagging issue with Strauss/ howe theory is that, a theory should be evident in the distant past, and , prior to the end of the medieval era, It's not clear to me if it is.
I actually emailed Neil howe years ago about this topic, if he planned a future book showing correlation to the theory in the medieval or ancient past, but never got a clear response.
I'm not surprised. What sold me on their theory wasn't the history part; it was their explanation for why Millennials are different from Gen X and similar (in an archetypal sense) to the G.I. Generation. I'm a Millennial (translation: I've been one my whole life); their explanation made sense to me and resonated with my experience, instantly. But they got over their skis on the details in the history portion of the theory.
Neil's new book gets into so much detail it loses sight of the fact that the theory is built on predictions and presumptions from over 25 years ago. That's why I've created this series: to fill the gaps and make it relevant to current events, not something which merely reaffirms a theory.
Yes, human nature is complex, and broad cyclical statistical trends in society are not the only factor that drives us, whether as individuals or as groups of individuals.
I definitely agree we have entered a New Phase. I think this hamas thing is going to have major impacts on events in the coming years. I think its major even redraw the political polarization we've been having in this country.
rapid unexpected wars? political issues? other than the timeline of events, and whether this cycle is abnormally long or not, I don't follow as to what this theory is not describing in its limited way, I also work in quantitative finance and in general, we see fundamentals like prices for things can not always go up at increasing rates, so there is an inevitable mean reversion and decline, and it is physically impossible for this to not happen, I think what generation theory is getting at is something like this, that there is no up without some type of down at some point
and seriously, the Israel has been in a nearly constant state of war for thousands of years, and in particular the last few decades, if anything, it was predictable that we would get another conflict there just as a matter of course
What? I didn't understand anything.