When I started rereading and refreshing myself on Generation Theory five or so years ago, I started to develop a theory that our current situation closely resembles the Civil War Saeculum, with the exception that the Hero/Civic generation actually had time to develop in this cycle. Without a powerful external threat to focus on, however, we're seeing the same kind of existential conflict between two different camps of the Prophet/Idealist and Hero/Civic generations. I'm looking to read Neil Howe's new book shortly.
I don't agree that we are living in some unprecedented era. The Fourth Turning forces community cohesion and action out of shear necessity. All of the disparate factions eventually become one either through the triumph of one over another, or their attention turned toward an even larger threat. This is one of the big lessons from the Strauss-Howe theory and you can already see it beginning to happen.
@generationreport What was Trump's base other than an amalgam of disparate group all coalescing with the single purpose of using him as a weapon against the current establishment?
@@generationreport You wouldn't consider that an example of community cohesion? I'd say even the pro-palestinian protests going on could be a decent example. Perhaps I misused wording or am not understanding what you're asking.
No, I would not. People are seeking out and mobilizing with others who are like-minded on political and social issues. That is not the same thing as community cohesion. Neil Howe's stretching of the definition of "regeneracy" in the latest book (as compared to the prior one) confused the two; deliberate or not, they are not the same thing, and never will be.
But going from Winter to Spring...isn't a correction. It's a transformation. Something completely different. The other tenet of 4th turnings is that the people are FORCED into action - there is no other choice - it's the only choice.
Right, the new book tries to have it both ways. "We're due for a transformation...but no matter how bad things get, even if America is destroyed, the cycle will still continue." Well, that means you expect it to be a correction, then... Most people who read these books really NEED to believe things will work out all right in the end. Whatever Neil's reasons, he's decided to oblige them. But I've decided to just call it as I see it. We're headed toward something huge in history, and if there's one thing I can guarantee, it's that it won't be a "correction."
Before Strauss/Howe theory, the concept of cyclical history wasn't widely known, outside economists circles, so perhaps just the knowledge society now has of potential turnings can cause a breakdown in the theory. I find the same situation with investing, before the internet, only brokers knew day to day goings on in the market, today in real time, investment podcasts free courses, hundreds of stations, live market data can be had at home, so the general population is making on the spot decisions and that's why there doesn't seem to be a pattern to follow now, because like a school of fish, we turn on a dime to whatever news is coming in, just saying, maybe Im wrong.
I do not disagree with anything in your video. Many clear-thinking Americans sense the deterioration of our once-great country as well, if only via a generalized intuition of a gathering storm. Unfortunately most of us are old--those who remember America's golden age >WWII. You can spend hours every day listening to podcasts and reading blogs abt America's perilous situation. But there is not much in the way of suggesting what immediate steps must be taken, when/how/by whom, to avert the disaster. It's frustrating to feel as though one foot is on the accerator (awareness) and the other on the brake (what should be done?) with both pressed to the floor.
How can some be expected to do their part when they refuse to leave mom's basement, free internet and free food? To me the upbringing "millennials" were supposed to undergo according to Strauss and Howe never materialized en masse, which translates into the "adults" we have currently and leaves me to doubt whether they got the "right stuff" to usher in a new prosperous age. But I am willing to be wrong in my assessment.
What if it isn't a prosperous age on the other side? 4th Turnings are about transformations (something completely unimaginable) - not necessarily Golden Ages. All I see is a dystopian surveillance state ala 1984 as our next "golden age." A "State-Run-Golden-Age" with no war, no poverty, no famine and no one ever offended - but mass surveillance, thought control and suppression of individualism. After all, "individualism is what got us into this mess" - according to "them."
Do you actually know any Millennials, or are you just an old fart who gets all of his information from stale Facebook memes? Here's a reality check, gramps, from a 23-year old working father: All of my peers are severely overworked. Most have multiple jobs. Many do, indeed, still live with their parents. None want to. Everyone dreams of buying a house. None can. Do you know why? Because the economic system has be systematically stacked such that upward mobility has become impossible. We work and work and work, but between sky-high rent and mortgages, inflation, and the general cost of living crisis, we can hardly make ends meet, nonetheless buy a house. You stay stuck in your youth in the prosperous 60s or 80s, when you could pay for college with a summer job at McDonald's and walk into any company and get a well-enough paying job to provide for a family five, and stick your head in the sand like an ostrich, ignoring the current reality. And by the way, a huge number of the GI Generation - last cycle's "Heroes" - lived with their parents (cf. Jimmy Stewart in _Mr. Smith Goes to Washington_) as well during the Great Depression, just as many members of my generation have been forced to during our coming of age during the Great Recession. But this poverty and desperation has forced us to become radicalized and often revolutionary, such that America is increasingly coming to resemble France in 1789, Russia in 1917, or Germany in 1933. And that is a very good thing.
I miss the country I grew up in.
I agree. The fact that we’ll have to fight for what’s important is what makes it a crisis. And there’s no guarantee that we win.
When I started rereading and refreshing myself on Generation Theory five or so years ago, I started to develop a theory that our current situation closely resembles the Civil War Saeculum, with the exception that the Hero/Civic generation actually had time to develop in this cycle. Without a powerful external threat to focus on, however, we're seeing the same kind of existential conflict between two different camps of the Prophet/Idealist and Hero/Civic generations. I'm looking to read Neil Howe's new book shortly.
My heart breaks for my children.
I don't agree that we are living in some unprecedented era.
The Fourth Turning forces community cohesion and action out of shear necessity. All of the disparate factions eventually become one either through the triumph of one over another, or their attention turned toward an even larger threat. This is one of the big lessons from the Strauss-Howe theory and you can already see it beginning to happen.
Where exactly are you seeing this "community cohesion"?
@generationreport What was Trump's base other than an amalgam of disparate group all coalescing with the single purpose of using him as a weapon against the current establishment?
That's not an answer to my question.
@@generationreport You wouldn't consider that an example of community cohesion?
I'd say even the pro-palestinian protests going on could be a decent example. Perhaps I misused wording or am not understanding what you're asking.
No, I would not.
People are seeking out and mobilizing with others who are like-minded on political and social issues. That is not the same thing as community cohesion. Neil Howe's stretching of the definition of "regeneracy" in the latest book (as compared to the prior one) confused the two; deliberate or not, they are not the same thing, and never will be.
But going from Winter to Spring...isn't a correction. It's a transformation. Something completely different. The other tenet of 4th turnings is that the people are FORCED into action - there is no other choice - it's the only choice.
Right, the new book tries to have it both ways. "We're due for a transformation...but no matter how bad things get, even if America is destroyed, the cycle will still continue."
Well, that means you expect it to be a correction, then...
Most people who read these books really NEED to believe things will work out all right in the end. Whatever Neil's reasons, he's decided to oblige them. But I've decided to just call it as I see it. We're headed toward something huge in history, and if there's one thing I can guarantee, it's that it won't be a "correction."
I’ve long had the belief that the West hit its peak in the 1980s. Maybe having the USSR as the ‘bad guy’ all those years after WW2 helped.
Before Strauss/Howe theory, the concept of cyclical history wasn't widely known, outside economists circles, so perhaps just the knowledge society now has of potential turnings can cause a breakdown in the theory. I find the same situation with investing, before the internet, only brokers knew day to day goings on in the market, today in real time, investment podcasts free courses, hundreds of stations, live market data can be had at home, so the general population is making on the spot decisions and that's why there doesn't seem to be a pattern to follow now, because like a school of fish, we turn on a dime to whatever news is coming in, just saying, maybe Im wrong.
I do not disagree with anything in your video. Many clear-thinking Americans sense the deterioration of our once-great country as well, if only via a generalized intuition of a gathering storm. Unfortunately most of us are old--those who remember America's golden age >WWII.
You can spend hours every day listening to podcasts and reading blogs abt America's perilous situation. But there is not much in the way of suggesting what immediate steps must be taken, when/how/by whom, to avert the disaster. It's frustrating to feel as though one foot is on the accerator (awareness) and the other on the brake (what should be done?) with both pressed to the floor.
What about his video do you disagree with? From your response it sounds like you agree completely.
That, it most certainly is.
How can some be expected to do their part when they refuse to leave mom's basement, free internet and free food? To me the upbringing "millennials" were supposed to undergo according to Strauss and Howe never materialized en masse, which translates into the "adults" we have currently and leaves me to doubt whether they got the "right stuff" to usher in a new prosperous age. But I am willing to be wrong in my assessment.
What if it isn't a prosperous age on the other side? 4th Turnings are about transformations (something completely unimaginable) - not necessarily Golden Ages. All I see is a dystopian surveillance state ala 1984 as our next "golden age." A "State-Run-Golden-Age" with no war, no poverty, no famine and no one ever offended - but mass surveillance, thought control and suppression of individualism. After all, "individualism is what got us into this mess" - according to "them."
I should bring you on the pod. I'm pretty sure we've been reading the same things.
Do you actually know any Millennials, or are you just an old fart who gets all of his information from stale Facebook memes? Here's a reality check, gramps, from a 23-year old working father: All of my peers are severely overworked. Most have multiple jobs. Many do, indeed, still live with their parents. None want to. Everyone dreams of buying a house. None can. Do you know why? Because the economic system has be systematically stacked such that upward mobility has become impossible. We work and work and work, but between sky-high rent and mortgages, inflation, and the general cost of living crisis, we can hardly make ends meet, nonetheless buy a house. You stay stuck in your youth in the prosperous 60s or 80s, when you could pay for college with a summer job at McDonald's and walk into any company and get a well-enough paying job to provide for a family five, and stick your head in the sand like an ostrich, ignoring the current reality. And by the way, a huge number of the GI Generation - last cycle's "Heroes" - lived with their parents (cf. Jimmy Stewart in _Mr. Smith Goes to Washington_) as well during the Great Depression, just as many members of my generation have been forced to during our coming of age during the Great Recession. But this poverty and desperation has forced us to become radicalized and often revolutionary, such that America is increasingly coming to resemble France in 1789, Russia in 1917, or Germany in 1933. And that is a very good thing.