Will this county predict the next U.S. president?
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- Опубліковано 15 чер 2023
- Who will win in 2024? Some experts are looking to one county in Wisconsin that has backed the presidential winner in every election since 2000. In interviews this spring, 18 months before the 2024 election, residents across the political spectrum said they harbored doubts about the front-runners. Democrats expressed concerns about President Biden’s age and his handling of the rising prices of everyday goods. Republicans, irked by former president Donald Trump’s erratic behavior, said they desired a more even-keeled candidate. #shorts #2024 #2024election
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in other words, he's trying to find the nicest way to tell the reporter to leave him alone
Same
Thank God you explained that or it would have totally escaped us
@@The_Real_RJ sarcasm detected, opinion rejected
@@DinoLoverGaming man you’re sharp, nothing gets past you
Very accurately midwestern.
Dude has his priorities straight.
can't mess with breakfast...
My dude is eating cereal in a freaking diner...... I don't think he's even human, I'm pretty sure he's an alien spy dressed up in a human skin.
@@anarchyandempires5452 either way, breakfast comes first.
That's right and he is being very polite. If someone tried to interrupt my breakfast I'd probably just bite his hand off.
@@eklhaft4531 It's the Midwest, they're just Canadians who happen to be American.
“And what about you?”
“Oh I’m just trying to eat my breakfast.”
Safest answer.
"I'm trying to afford breakfast" would say it all
Not at all - his answer is obviously dislike. If he was going to say he had no problem, why not say that?
@@saladass1571 some people may dislike that answer. avoiding it at all is the safest option.
I’mjusttryingtoeatmybreakfast2024
@@saladass1571 because he didn't say it? Are you fr trying to depict a skit character as racist?
So out of the 3143 counties in the USA, one managed to ‘guess right’ 6 times in a row.
I’m surprised more counties haven’t managed to guess right 6 times in a row. Each presidential race has two parties. 2^6=64. So there’s a 1/64 chance of correctly guessing the result of the election 6 consecutive times.
@@Ometochtlisome counties (most) are safe and almost always vote for one party. You need to take that into account
@Ometochtli
South Carolina picks the Republican to win the Presidential election, Every time .
So we get it right when Republicans win😊
@@Backup_Punter100% correct
Thank you, it drives me nuts when you see these "every presidential election since [20-30 years ago]" statistics. Like, yeah, 20-30 years sounds long, but elections only come every 4 years. There's no possible way to get statistical significance out of an observation about four to eight elections
Got to respect the man who just want to eat in peace
It's the same guy
Pretty smart considering you are going to end up catching shit from one side either way
@@joebuckhoff woah really
Not even necessary, only thing you HAVE to do is leave him alone
@@joebuckhoff ain’t no way
It’s a statistical certainty that some counties would be this way considering you only have two choices.
The basic calculation is (1/2)^5, or 3.125%. Which seems super likely.
However that assumes that each county randomly flips one way or the other, and that each vote is independent of the last. That is not true of presidential elections. People tend to vote for the same party they voted for the last time.
Doors County is not mathematically significant. But the media really enjoys attempting to divine the future using past coincidences.
19 out of 20 known bellwether counties voted for Trump in 2020
@@dubscheckum8246cool
There are not two choices. Don't fall for the psyop, you can vote for anyone who is over the age of 35, a natural born American citizen, and has not served two previous terms as president. It is completely legal to write a vote in.
There are in fact other parties you can vote for. But I get what you're saying
As a fellow Wisconsinite, I can confirm that reporters regularly ask us who we vote for.
Then don't accurately report it unless it is Biden.
I can tell ya from someone familiar with Door County there were ALOT of Trump voters.
You're not funny.
@@thecomedypilot5894 correct
@@thecomedypilot5894 correct.
As a wisconsinite, i can confirm that his accent is 100% on point
Not really for Door County, though I would say. I'm from Green Bay, and I'm up in Door County almost every week, and there isn't really that kind of Midwest accent up there.
@@samphillip9616yeah I hope he's joking because that accent was so bad!
So who you voting for?
Especially when you're from Manitowoc dere bud.
Sounds exactly like my great uncle who works the family farm about 45 minutes from Deforest, lol
He is indeed just an easy-going man eating his breakfast. What I would give to be so calm and carefree about politics 😂
It’s easy. Let go. We control ourselves and that’s it. Our system of government makes drastic changes extremely difficult to push through. We’re going to be fine. And if we’re not going to be fine you did what you could. Enjoy your breakfast.
Dude freal it isnt hard, even the Washington Post, despite pretending to be here for us, knows that us not consuming their content and forever stuck in politics would be bad for them
@@SWTORLOL87 Our system of government is evil and engaged in imperialism and genocide. Being engaged with it is good
It's easy, move to the Midwest and be whatever everyone else is around you.
There, now you have what this guy has
I concur with everyone else, it's easy once you accept nobody is on your side and while one party is better than the other, neither deserve your loyalty.
This is the entire midwest in a nutshell.
Spot on accent
So true about the Midwest. "I'm just a regular guy trying to eat my breakfast, be kind to everyone, and quietly vote for trump every time I see his name on a ballot."
@@Michael-js6gpwhites shouldn’t be allowed to vote
@@Michael-js6gpBased regular guy.
@@Michael-js6gp basically me
Reject politics, embrace tasty breakfast.
amen
Real, politics are queer
Breakfast 2024! We Can Chew It!
We only have two (viable) options in every POTUS election. For a county to "guess right" is really no big deal.
Especially considering how many counties there are. Theres actually a scam that works similar to this, send 8000 emails predicting if a stock is going to raise of fall. Half of them say its going to raise, and the other half of the emails say its going to fall. Then, you take the 4000 emails you sent that had the correct prediction and repeat the process. You could make six predictions in a row, and still have 250 emails, at which point you ask those 250 people to invest in your process. To them, it looks like you just predicted how the stock was going to raise and fall, so it seems like a good investment. The reality is that no matter what the stock did you would have still convinced 250 people that you can predict it.
C’est Président Joe
Viable? The Libertarians put forth a candidate every election cycle.
That's untrue you can vote for anyone so long as they fit the requirements but yes out of the main two.. not surprising really and neither is even ok.. so yeah.. woo
This man is a sociopath. Not the interviewer, the guy who went to a *diner* for *cereal*. You're telling me you don't have a fridge with milk, a counter for a box, a bowl and spoon at your place? You're gonna look me in the face and say there's not enough room in your place for cereal, but you can afford to blow $3-6 depending on the diner on a single bowl? I wouldn't take someone like that seriously enough to begin the interview process.
No, I don’t think you understand. It’s about the friends we made along the way.
Thing is, reporters *have* to interview even this guy; he could be a swing vote in 2024.
Well at the Beefeater you can get cereal, pastry, muffins, fruit and cooked breakfast as well as any drinks for a fixed price, it might be a set up like that.
He goes there for the coffee. My friend does likewise though he has an early breakfast at home and then later goes out for coffee .
It looks like the diner doesn’t have any milk either. That cereal is DRY
"I'm just trying to eat my breakfast."😂
This is the Wisconsin way of saying "please leave me alone."
I'm sure all the native construction workers love it so much.
They do yea
Minus the part where they get undercut by people that don't follow any regulations and will pretend they don't speak English if confronted with something
There's 250000 unfilled construction jobs in the usa. I want my infrastructure built and quite frankly I already have a couple herniated discs so I'm not tryna help. I say let um in if we're not gonna do it.
@amanthedestroyer4852 no there's not. Look these "unfilled jobs" are 10 am hour bs we have a mechanism in our system to prevent labor shortages its called a wage. The cost of it goes up when more people are needed.
It is pretty interesting since it’s consistent across parties. Usually, you don’t see a county flip between the parties that often, and especially not perfectly in sync with the overall vote.
There are more than 3,000 counties in the US. Only makes sense that one of them ended up choosing the winning candidate 6 times in a row.
Ohio voted for the winner in every election from 1960 until 2020 when the streak ended
@Reece New Mexico has voted for the popular vote winner every single time since it became a state except 1976.
@@tillettman yep, if it was pure random chance you'd expect a few dozen too. Given most have a lean one way or another its basically just luck that out of the swing counties this ones gotten it right
Its almost like it's all rigged and if voting actually mattered we wouldn't be allowed to do it.
Thanks to you guys for making news so accessible. You’re great!
How is this news?
@@Xio189it's the Washington Post
@@Xio189how is it not?
@@Xio189 it’s news for children who think this is news
@@Xio189 I’m talking about all that they do in general, but bringing information to people who don’t know it yet is news.
As a person who lives in Wisconsin, we do in fact try to eat our breakfast.
Who goes to a diner to eat a bowl of cereal 😂😂
Who goes to ANY restaurant for a pork chop? That is my personal eternal question.
this is the midwest version of “i just wanna grill”
explain? (i am from the midwest😭)
@@ivo8150 me too lol, idk but i think i associated it with the midwest cause the flannel
@ivo8150 on the political spectrum there is an area that is considered "centrist". If you are a centrist then you are probably indifferent to many things having to do with politics, such as parties, candidates, policies, etc., this has been made into a meme among communities (reddit mostly, I know, eugh) where centrists don't care, and just want to grill, an inherently non-political action.
BADELINE PFP !! :D
But we also grill?
bellweather counties are kind of silly and get changed every election. a bunch of those counties got it wrong in 2020 :/
Yeah, how many counties even are there in the US?
Given that the winner of the election usually wins a majority of the population, you're looking at better odds than tossing a coin six times and guessing correctly each time. In other words, one in every sixty-four counties should be capable of boasting bellwether status.
I would imagine it's largely just random chance.
Up until 2020 ohio had voted for the winners in every presidential election since 1960 so I think they’re the closest thing we had
That's because this last election was a coup by the CIA. If they would do it in Guatemala for a fruit company they wouldn't think twice about doing it in this country to get rid of Trump.
@@reece3408makes you think some funny business happened 👀
It's almost like there were some weird happenings that the system refused to look into, and one side weirdly pushing to make the process less secure for some reason.
Charlie Bernes would be proud of that accent.
“Who are you voting for?”
“Whoever gets you the hell out of my face,”
Good Wisconsin accent (from a Wisconsinite!)
I agree as another
Fellow Wisconsinite here and accent just a bit UP-ish. Needed more “Ope”
It’s kind of similar to Canadian
@@dasportsfan2122 that’s kind of what UPer sounds like. The closer you get to the northern border the more the accent comes clearer. It kind of actually sounded like a mix of UPer and Minnesotan
@@golbatgirl Oh I’m Canadian so I was curious on why it had a little bit of a Canadian vibe
New Mexico: only since 2000?
Those are rookie numbers we’ve done that since like the 50s
Then I'm scared. I live in New Mexico and getting that lunatic again is no good! (Which one though? Reeheheheheeheeeee
@@2u29wjiowk2iswj the meanest scooby laugh popped in my head while reading this... specifically spooky island
ngl, if i was eating breakfast, I would pick up my plate and move.
Midwest accent is on point
Kinda hard when we have barely seen any campaigns narrow down as of yet.
Yeah surely others will emerge?
Don't think its all that fair until the final candidates are up for the two major parties because at that point, it's 50 50 and if there's a popular 3rd party candidate they'll have the notoriety by that point
The candidates and winner has already been chosen. We will find out the winner in the next season.
@@Matt-kw3vq Only 504 more commercial breaks until we find out next election season
@@wordzmythhopefully lmao
As a Wisconsinite: thats accurate
Think migrants have pushed voters there to the right in the past couple of years?
People forget about nm tho, we’ve had a 99% accuracy since the 50s💀
@theguywhoasked02496 oh I just meant the characters' maneurisms, maybe us midwesterners are smarter than folks give us credit for
@@Beef_jerky_official how has that held for midterm waves?
@@commanderneyo midwesterners are definitely smart asf
Big fat 100% no in regards to illegal immigration.
ILLEGAL immigration.
Illegal immigration was never mentioned
Did they think Bob Dole was going to win in 1996?
Underrated comment
That’s a solid Midwest accent
Door county often has a Chicago accent, as that’s where most cabin owners are from.
Only part they are missing is when he takes a sip of “pop” 🤣
I never noticed we had an accent
@@BluesnakeAkki we have softer T’s and D’s, besides that it’s very plain besides mannerisms like “no yeah” or “yeah no” or “pop”.
@@BluesnakeAkki I bet when you leave the Midwest people notice you do.😊
OK, that is NOT what people in Door County sound like HAHAHA
Booski it depends on the mood I personally love the stereotype. And I can say that as I was raised in Neenah
But for Manitowoc it holds true
For real
People in door county talk normal, this is an accent like a grandma way up north
@@jackzurn7218Yeah well ain’t nobody in sturgeon bay talking like this bro
Legend says he’s still trying to eat his breakfast
Door county is literally the biggest tourist spot outside of the Dells
Except most of those immigrants are from Illinois we just love those FIB
Especially in Door County. Nothin's worse than a FIB tourist
The average Illinoisan is the type of person to move out of Illinois and then spend the rest of their life talking about how much better Illinois is
This makes a lot of sense honestly, I got family in door county and I’m pretty sure the entire area is similar to how they think and I think they’ve done something similar to this
The Midwestern accent is actually pretty decent
I hate my accent people always telling me I'm from Canada🙄
He definitely got the Midwestern accent and midwestern nice personality down good 😂
Man just want to eat his breakfast. I respect that!
The guy eating breakfast is literally sending a message to the media saying that we don't care
One man said to himself against a green screen backdrop
Bruh people rly act like they go outside and see the streets swarming with newly imported aliens
Should be doing this interview here in Clallam county WA since we currently hold the record as the bellwether for presidential elections.
"Who are you voting for?" Im not even registered to vote
Democrat it is!
@@miceltusav88my grandmother voted democrat in 2020! (She died in 2006)
Given two options a total of 5 times id hope we'd have a few more than 1 district.
It's a 1/32 chance over 3,246 counties. My probability skills are rusty, but they lean towards you being right.
A diner outside of Jersey? Weird
This is why polling is shit 🤣
He didnt even mention migrants as a complaint, literally just said why the demographic changed.😂
Shhh people love negativity lol
Migrants honestly have never been too much of a problem here. All the MI6 and cartel yahoos stick down south and the deadbeats typically go to cali or if they do come this far north theyll settle in chicao because it's a "sanctuary city" migrants dont like living homeless in Milwaukee because Jeff Dahmer might get em.
They have never found a place they didn't like shoving a narrative in.
I live around there and I could see that. It's a swing county in a swing state. That impression was also spot on XD
The door to the whitehouse, swinging all over the place.
That last line was so on-brand for wisco, thank you
The "ya know" and "oh"s are pretty well done for imitating a wisconsinite
I'm just trying to eat my breakfast is the best response I've ever heard someone asking a political question.
I love the half hearted attempt at a Wisconsin accent.
Me at dinner when my parents start talking about politics and they drag me into it
You have no idea how surprised I was to see a video on my home county.
Almost makes me wish the entire area would just decide as a group to have a random write in candidate like Kermit The Frog or similar just to either break the winning streak on purpose or to somehow shift causality itself so that whoever they pick is always whoever wins.
There's no way this is the only county that has voted for the last 4 presidents. There has to be more.
Dude was watching Charlie Berens videos for a week working on the accent.
In Brazil, there is a state where all presudential election results since the 90s were "predicted" by its vote to the 1st decimal digit. It's Minas Gerais, which has a demographic distribution that mirrors the Country as a whole and is located in the frontier of 3 regions (Southeast, Mid-west and Northeast), what makes it a really good microcosm of Brazil.
My family loves door county, it’s like an hour away from where we live
Banger accent
Ah yes, the texas sharpshooter, my favorite fallacy.
Legend has it that this man is still just trying to eat his breakfast 💀
I like how the reporter has to unnecessarily say all the good the immigrants did. Like he was afraid the listeners would instantly be prejudiced towards them and preemptively defended them
I cannot comprehend making the choice to have cereal at a diner.
Your political views are offensive....
He’s means Illinoisans, the scoundrels that they are
Him being that show makes me want to move to Wisconsin, so I can be left the hell alone 😂 I think it’s a good idea to live there
Very true
As a Wisconsin resident, I can confirm that this would be my reaction.
that "Oh, I'M JUST TRYING TO EAT MY BREAKFAST"
Being from door county this is pretty accurate…
I like that washingtonpost immediately goes into the defence of migrants and throw some stats about the financial impact (nothing about the social impact nor do they specify where they are from)
How did they boost tourism. Hahaha and how did they boost agriculture.
Agriculture probably because they are paid less than Americans.
Tourism not a clue. Agriculture, cheap labor subsidized by our taxes be it grants or welfare. Of course the smart one pooled their money and rented/bought land then undercut the established farmers. Still, I won't deny most Americans don't want to work farms so there are positives and negatives depending who you are.
@@user-ns4lz3kj2h That's a bullshit and you know it. There are lots of people willing to work. That's a myth. No everyone in America who is American will be rich or even Middle class. Most won't graduate high school. Those options should be open for them.
Most agricultural jobs are done by immigrants
It boosts tourism because they label illegals as tourists for the figures, duh
That's Midwestern for "I don't wanna have this conversation". Lol
"Sum pepol downt"
That's his way of saying he does not
WP is so left leaning
tbh left leaning is usually better than right leaning
Much better than right leaning. Right leaning has scared me recently
Yup no fear mongering here
"left leaning is usually better than right leaning"
I.e. I need a way for someone to excuse my biases in how and what I consume in news
Yeah ignorance is bliss, them giving you false or misleading information is better than having to listen to anything the right says 🤓
Donald Trump
Man just wants to eat his Mac and cheese in peace
Canadians be like: ohhh veri veri good my friend.
hell yeah brother dilute that labor pool and keep wages down. you’re a true friend of the working class.
u know . in addition to this 9/10 migrants/illegal immigrants who cross over the southern border vote blue
Cope and seethe.
That's why they love an unsecured southern border.
Crossings are down 50%, thanks Brandon
@@skinnylong2023I genuinely do not know who Brandon is, I hear the name in politics, but I don't know who it is
@@superk9letsplays419 It’s just a silly name conservatives have for Biden that a lot of dems and independents use now too because it’s funny
@skinnylong2023 thanks, now I understand what dark Brandon is
@@superk9letsplays419Let's go Brandon?
Nah Ill just say "the guy who didnt make the price of food skyrocket and doesnt ignore that we are suffering"
They have an underwater hockey club there.
Personally i would vote for biden
Yeah same
Not a good option, but the better one for sure
TRUMP 2024🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
No😊
Asking this question honestly: do you find it concerning at all that as early as 2019 trump was confusing history so hard that he thought the continental army took over the airports in 1775? Is it reasonable that a man who claims to know everything about everything would get something that badly wrong?
Same thing happened to me in Portland Oregon. Just trying to eat my breakfast. Restaurant owner was running for a local seat. He handed out flyers and pulled up a chair and started into a long winded speech about hot topic issues. I just want to eat my hangover breakfast in peace.
"I'm just trying to eat my breakfast."
- Walt Jr, all grown up
As a Wisconsinite who while I don't live in Door County all the time, I do own a house up there that I stay in when I'm not away at school, and I can safely say that the tourists should, respectfully, please leave us alone. My favorite restaurant was bought out by some Californian person who tried to make it into some Western, vegan place, which failed immediately because nobody wanted any of that crap. They are also taking over all of the beaches so that a lot of the time they just ignore the no trespassing and private property signs on my land and swim or lay on the beach anyway. Although when I'm not there I'm okay with it because, I get it, it can be hard to find a place to be and it's not like I need to use it while I'm gone, it's bad when they start trying to tell me off when I want some privacy and want to be able to enjoy the freedom of being on my property and not having people harassing me. We just want them to go away altogether, we were wealthy enough of a county anyways before and the amount of tourism and inconvenience it causes is not enough to justify how much the county makes.
A vegan restaurant in the Midwest? That will fail even if it was in Chicago
@@logana1999 Mate, did I say anywhere that only a Californian was able to buy the property? It wasn't even for sale but the old couple that owned the restaurant for nearly their whole lives we're getting around retirement age and so when this douche sold his $500 thousand dollar single bedroom on the coast and moved here he bought it from them at a price they couldn't refuse.
Also, about us homeowners up here having houses on property we never use? I can't speak for everyone but I myself, as I stated before, live here, even though I have to be away for school, and I know that others up here have to work elsewhere to afford their houses. Of course the fuckin property costs a lot, the majority of it is on the lakefront or at least within walking distance of a beach, which costs a lot anywhere in the U.S.
A lot of the people who permanently live up here are those who own small businesses and have to, or are already retired and wanted to stay here where it used to be peaceful and quiet, but now you can't even get through Sister Bay during tourist season because it's all bumper to bumper traffic.
it's a 50/50 chance, there are only 2 candidates, I don't think it's that impressive
The probability to get a 50/50 right 6 consecutive time is 1.5%, so it is impressive
"Ope. I've got the milk in the cereal already so I've gotta eat it before it gets soggy. Speaking of soggy..." (continues a classic Midwestern goodbye for the next 3 hours without touching the cereal)
He got that wisconsin accent down
Just because its a quirky dude making tik tok style video’s doesn’t mean that these aren’t just as manipulative as the regular main stream media
Holy shit, someone finally noticed.
explain to me what’s manipulative about this video
@@deer0skullz it’s not just this video but it’s this whole new marketing strategy WP has now. They bring on these “relatable” types of people to do “silly little TikToks 😄”, but they’re just trying to spread propaganda more efficiently. I mean come on, it doesn’t seem odd to you that all of their messaging perfectly aligns with the interests of mainstream media? With this kinda stuff, you have to assume it’s cynical.
@@deer0skullzpushing for immigration and lying about its benefits. Immigration has no benefits and reduces native wages while increasing housing prices
@dirk_6762 what interests tho they just post about the mainstream media because it's popular news?
My former conservative friend used to remind me (often) how “Ohio has never picked a loser.” He meant how whoever wins the presidency every four years matches the results in Ohio. I was so happy to prove him wrong back in 2020. No system is perfect, I guess.
We're you happy about the inflation too?
@@user-xl9dc1kx3z It’s all right. We now live in a world where you can believe whatever you want to believe. Believe that an American election caused inflation throughout the planet in every industrialized country and not greedy corporations taking advantage of a worldwide pandemic and artificially raising their prices, saying there is no other way. Go ahead; I ain’t gonna stop you. 🤷♂️
Well it is rare for a president to lose his second term
@@alejandromaldonado6159 when the opposition is bought and paid for
@@user-xl9dc1kx3zMy brother in Christ, Republicans were literally found to be far and away the ones attempting to rig things, and they STILL lost. Clinging to cult-daddy Trump is just embarrassing at this point
sounds a lot like the “coin was head the last 6 times so there’s a high/low chance it'll be heads again”
I respect pink shirt, reminds me of myself most days.
And everyone ignores the implication that illegal migration can change the political spectrum of whole ass states.
That’s why they fight so hard for open borders
@@Matt-ve3ql Crossings are down 50% in the past months
@@skinnylong2023😂 compared to what?
@@M0SSADDID911 Compared to previous years
@@skinnylong2023 which years
I don't think illegal immigrants count as migrants lmao
And I don’t think people who hate on migrants count as human or patriotic
As a Wisconsinite, ya nailed the accent 🤣
My best friend used to work at his brother in laws pizza restaraunt somewhere in county like a decade ago