Professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on Biden vs. Trump
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- Опубліковано 29 кві 2024
- Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University who has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, tells CNN’s Laura Coates why he thinks President Joe Biden has an advantage in 2024 despite polling that shows him trailing former president Donald Trump.
#CNN #News
Not to brag but I have predicted North Korea's election and have been right every time.
I have predicted Russia‘s election outcome for 20 years
😂
That comment was Delicious! What's for dessert?
You have a very good sense of humor. En français, vous êtes un bon prédicateur. de Québec-Canada.
@@guybrulotte670 I am humbled. Thank you.
Only poll that matters is election day.
Independent Voter Absolutely voting Blue 🇺🇸
@@JohnnyVetter You’re not an independent if you’re voting for a color. That’s not what independent thinkers do.
The rigged election weeks you mean.
Democrats and Republicans have p1ss3d off the 110 MILLION AMERICANS left in this country. They better prepare to be held accountable and prepare for a lesson that history will never forget!
@@crispinfornoff206this year they do 😂 anyone who can think at all, Independently or otherwise, knows "blue" is better than the other "option" which is "fake red"
He isn't wrong. The polls are often way off. Just a general pulse.
Always, polls had Biden winning Texas in 2020.
He's clearly wrong. Biden could win. But Trump is clearly more likely to win at this point in time. Immigration, inflation, RFK's high polling, and widespread incompetence and senility are destroying Biden's odds. If Trump is convicted of a felony, which seems likely, it will likely pull down his numbers. It's easy to sit on the sidelines with your magic system and pretend you know something that everyone else doesn't when you actually know less. Then if you happen to be right, like any child could be, you claim your magic system works, and a bunch of retards on social media will believe you are a guru because they don't understand that successfully betting on an outcome when you already have information is neither random nor difficult. Biden's economy is like Jimmy Carter's...people are unlikely to reward that.
@@chris42690Polls had Biden winning in 2020 and he did. The polls are more often right than wrong by a long shot.
"Tell me everything, pretend it's just you and me"
My dirty mind: 😏
The rest of the world is wondering how it could even be close..
Wondering? This is a country that has the highest number of flat earthers, people who believe that one day zombies will rise and in order to prepare for it, you need to build fortified fortress. A country that has more mass shootings per year than the days in calendar and the only wondering you can come up is what did those kindergarten do to piss off someone to go to his armory and started spraying children with bullets. That is the dumbest country..
Israel and Ukraine. Both wars very few people support funding for. So Biden voters don't even want to answer the question. Meanwhile Trump supporters are always active
Every person I know in Canada, which is many, says exactly that to me, they wonder what in the world are people thinking in the United States who would vote for Trump.
And why would they vote for Biden @@brenrenn8306. Considering under Trump, no wars , no inflation, no border crisis, safer country. Yeah I dunno. FJB. Trump 2024
RFKjr will win the vote if either Biden or Trump pull out of the race.
Great quote:”Polls are snapshots that are abused as predictors.”
We need to go back to planet of the apes society
No tech or information 😕 🤔 😢 😐 😪 😞
They’re also incredibly inaccurate because of the demographics likely to answer them, and as well as people trolling the polls saying they’re pro trump even if they aren’t
Polls are snapshots that form a trend over time.
As true today as they were in 2016
Biden is failing short term economy /long term economy/ incumbent charisma/ social unrest/ foreign/military failure/ and foreign military success that’s 6 right there and RFK might be in the polls that’s 7/ the man and himself is a scandal and his family as well so is trump, what keys does he have success with party mandate ? Given.contest . Given incumbency . Given and no policy change cause he doesn’t have a policy to begin with. I’m and independent voter leaning RFK or not voting , I see a lot of bad keys for Biden than Trump and that’s simply a man that at pro Israel and pro palistinian rally’s both saying F Joe Biden.. both sides of the protesters are chanting it.. just like everyone else wants a better economy less inflation less spending , ppl want what we had in 2016-2020 over what they have now and you don’t have to be a republican to think that. My 2 cents .
I predict the real winner is his Chandler Bing hairpiece
Maybe that's his uncle Bada.
The problem isn’t lack of money, food, land or water. The problem is you’ve given control of these things to a group of psychopaths and their families who care more about maintaining there power than helping mankind- Bill Hicks 1961-1994
There are a lot more of us than there are of them. Don’t forget who the people of this country are. Us. The truth is going to come out this year. I promise.
I can only keep praying that you are right, Mr Van Gorden. How can anyone in their right mind vote for that feeble brained old fool ?
I agree with you and Bill Hicks. Can you point me to a general source or idea of what gives you reason to be confident it will be this year? I understand if you’d rather not. This year sounds good to me!
This is absurd. You're talking like one of those ever-delusional Q-Anon believers. "THIS year will be different! I promise!!" 😆🤣
who are you voting though?
@@Hadeto_AngelRust Read that question back and reiterate your words please.
This doesn’t make sense. He says he was right in 2000 because Gore won the popular vote, but then he was also right in predicting trump in 2016 - when of course Clinton won the popular vote
After 2000 he switched to just electoral.
by vote is one thing , but when all was said and done gore would have won the electoral college.
The guy is a fuggin con
@@dogpatch8266 ah yes, you’re right
Madam President Hillary Clinton Won The Popular Votes by Landslides in 2008 and 2016.
Just vote. Everyone PLEASE, DO NOT SIT THIS ONE OUT!!!
And no MAILING
@@clintbronson5 What's your reason? Mine... I don't trust deJoy. He continues to make a mess of the post office. Our state is only vote by mail, in emergency we can get ballot at voting office, like when post office had to be addressed for not delivering some... we have no issues, except since deJoy hot involved, with decades of the process, and most of us return our ballots to the drop box instead of mailing them back.
Trump 2024
Trump 2024
If trump loses don't complain like punk ass jerks. It cause you didn't vote and it be your FAULT
This is the first guy I've seen in the last year who predicted Trump's victory and I never wait long enough till the end to see who they choose for 2024 because it scares the holy f****** s*** out of me
Yes, if Biden wins, we are all screwed big time!
Need help packing
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Bye, you wont be missed. Take that professor with you.
@@j.d.v.bye
Anyone who doesn’t have a landline doesn’t get polled.
True. Maybe 10 years ago there were enough landline phones to get an adequate sample for polling purposes. I can’t see how there’s enough for effective modeling today.
He says he was really correct about 2000 because of the popular vote. Yet doesn’t use the popular vote in other cases like 2016 to say he was wrong. Pure nonsense
Pure CNN
Apparently he says that after 2000 he changed his election model to reflect the electoral college not the popular vote but I don't buy it. Sounds like an excuse for getting 2000 wrong
He was initially only predicting the populatar vote, after 2000 he changed to electoral.
Exactly. And if anyone had to explain to him that popular vote has only indirect bearing (unless you get 100%), then he should not be making predictions.
@stringtheoryx after 2000 he switched to only electoral.
Polls don't mean anything these days, in my opinion. I agree 100% with this guy.
Yet he was was wrong in his prediction that Biden would win 2020
They can reflect trends ..thats about it
CNN Polls suck ass tbh.
I personally have never taken one.
Polls do have meaning and value and usually at least one gets it right. Which one? Well your guess is as good as mine; though ones where no human contact is present are more reliable if people are voting on something with a political stigma. I mean would you want to admit to a stranger that you support Trump? Candidates have to adapt in relation to polling activity to ignore would be to court failure for sure.
0:34 I'm willing to cut him a little slack on the 2000 election since that is the third closest Presidential election in U.S. history (only behind 1876 and 1824), and he did give Al Gore the maximum number of false keys that a presidential candidate could have while still losing the election, so it really isn't that big of a failure.
1:22 And remember Dewey beat Truman. Okay, that may be a false equivalency because polling now isn't the same as it was in 1948 but it's still something to note.
I think an important thing to note about this election is how unique it is. This is the first time in 130 years where two US Presidents have run against each other, meaning we know how both candidates would govern. Lichtmans model has an impressive track record but as the 2000 election shows, it ain't perfect. This is an election i wouldnt be surprised for him to be wrong on.
Well he was right about the 2000 election. Gore should have won but Bush’s Brother was governor of Florida.
@@highvibrational There is no conclusive evidence that Gore would have won had the recount continued. Pretending that there is to make Lichtman look good is just dumb.
@@TheJoeschmoe777 It was the closest election in modern American history. If any election was ‘stolen’ it was the 2000 election. The Florida Secretary of state was Republican, the Supreme Court was controlled by Republicans, and the governor of the state was Jeb Bush. Gore lost because of voting machine errors and the fact that Florida had a time limit on recounts and failed to establish statewide uniform criteria for hand recounts.
@@TheJoeschmoe777 Before 2000 he only predicted who would win the popular vote, which before 2000 only twice had the candidate won without winning the popular vote. After 2000 this disparity has largely shifted as to democrats normally have the majority in popular vote, which is why after 2000 he only decided who would win electoral college.
@@alpbridges3553 But how in the world can he predict a different outcome with the exact same method?
And anyway, that only proves my point. 2000 was a very unique election the likes of which Lichtman has never had to predict before. So it is with this one. Not since the post Civil War era have two Presidents run against each other. Lichtmans never had to predict an election like this before so he could very possibly get it wrong.
Polls are the people home in the middle of the day who answer the phone for someone to talk to.
I mean, WTF even answers the phone from "unknown caller" in the 21st century?
100% agreed
I never thought of that. Excellent point. ❤
Exactly.
They only call landlines, too. I haven't gotten a call like that since I shut off my landline. So, they're calling retired Boomers because they're pretty much the only ones with landlines these days.
Trump has underperformed his polls all year because of this reason. 🤠
NOBODY participates in these polls. Do YOU answer calls you don't recognize? Me neither.
Yep. I avoid people with clipboards in the street too. Like the plague. People who answer polls are eager or just insane, IMHO.
Yes! and I tell them I'm voting for painfully slow FJB. Even though there is no way in hell I'd ever vote for him. And democrats think the race is close . . . lol.
@@buckmurdock2500And Republicans think that Trump won the last time…
@@azul8811 some of the really lunatic ones think he's still President.
@@azul8811 As an independent as much as Trump gets on my nerves if Biden wins we are in DEEP trouble, the 44.6% capital gains tax thats will be the highest in 100 years is enough to make large business owner pack up and move their company and their jobs to another country, people will not be able to leave their homes to their family members anymore, any money that is made in the stock market even on 401k investments the government will get half, in some states as high as 57%, people are so caught up in Trumps drama because the media talks about it 24/7 because they need you to vote for the party that is going to make them even wealthier which is Biden, it will make the rich even richer and the poor even poorer creating dependency on the government.
It's my understanding that polls are conducted via landline.
Who uses landlines?
Pretty much makes any poll completely irrelevant.
Who used landlines in 1936? Demographics skewed toward the wealthy. That's how the Literary Digest picked Alf Landon, and went out of business not long after.
Thank you sir.
❤
Im from Europe, so i might not fully understand, but the fact trump has so many votere baffles me..
Don't believe the polls, believe the election results.
There's a lot of stupid people in the US, three men alone have been in the news lately for taking ammunition to foreign countries saying they "forgot" and are getting detained by those foreign authorities
Old Canadian guy here. I can't understand it either.
@@fenderblue9485 That's the thing, Trump won the presidency once, which is still a complete mystery to many of us in the EU, and the fact that so many of you guys are planning to vote on a twice impeached, draft dodger, cheater, porn star fucker and let's be honest, coup plotter is truly incredible.
@@niemi5858 American... and I don't fully understand it. Republican propaganda is strong and American conservatives have soft skulls.
I agree with other commentators here: the only poll that matters is on November 5th. Period.
WRONG! Elections have been rigged since the beginning. We only have the illusion of choice. If elections were free and fair the senile pedo dotard puppet we have now wouldn't be in office.
Trump is going to win LMAO
@Economics70 😂😂I agree with you. Win the trip to orange county 😂😂
@@Economics70doubt it he doesn’t have the numbers in his favor at all and rfk jr is going to pull votes away from trump also
@@marciamariethompson6463 Trumps going to be president again, get your blue hair dye ready and a fresh dose of hormone blockers
Professiosy has nothing big to tell in elections. The Demographics says much. Professing doesn't matter much here. Trump is going unblocked.
You can't say a poll sample size from every state doesn't matter as long as it's over the minimum threshold. It's statistically improbable to be incorrect from a reliable source.
Dude, I stopped trusting polls after 2016
its all a fucking sham!!
Even more after 2020..
I think the 45 million blue fakes they found last week gives O'Biden 50%? 😂
Choking on my tea..😂
why?
@@claudeheinrich3613 probably because Hillary was winning big according to the polls
@@claudeheinrich3613The answer to your question is one minute and twenty seconds into the video
Polls don't mean anything. Most responsible voters don't participate in them.
True.i don't even know where the polls are that they are voting for...
@@suziecue3027 Also I don't trust polls because just like there are troll farms meant to influence social media, there are troll farms designed to influence polling data as well. Actual Elections are the only REAL polling that counts.
Actually they do…you only need a small sample the get an idea of how trends are going and the mood of the people
@@user-hj4wr6ec3r But since 2016, polls have become big busine$$ and just another way to spread disinformation. If there are troll farms wreaking havoc on social media, what makes you think troll farms aren't also corrupting poll data?! And even without trolls, polling data is way to easy to bend to a narrative. I.E.: '75% of voters who are in the top 2% of early voting and rank 5% of the northeast region of so and so . .' - which is why many poll results have very fine print at the bottom of their published data. And we all know what fine print means.
@@user-hj4wr6ec3r I don't debate with troll farm accounts.
Professor Lichtman, I HOPE you are right.
Joe Biden is going to get beat like a drum, you are not wrong to be worried.
❤
No one believes this
The rest of the world will be rather sorry for USA if a man with one foot in the grave continues as the president. Then again, it also will be convenient cuz who or what will be to blame for the third world war? Dementia?
He’s wrong and he’s coping. First of all Biden’s already got more than 6 keys easily. Second his keys have not been very successful in prediction and have been criticized quite well. Lastly in 2020 all the polls said Biden would win and he did.
Did he predict bind would be zenile during his first term?
If we should have learned anything from the polls the last many years is that the polls are often very wrong.
THANK YOU!
The problem is, were Trump is concerned, the polls usually run 2 or 3 points low! That's scary!
@@fultonbenjamin9022 He was never ahead in the polls in 2016 or 2020 so that's all you need and it's leftwing news doing the polls so they're actively looking for Biden supporters, so it might be more like 65% for Trump
@@andrewpeters5145 for sure, but like I said often,not always. Also it’s important to know who’s doing the polling and reporting on it and why. Very often the “news” media that caters to a given demographic designs and conducts polls that are basically an echo chamber if you will that provide the “news” they want. Mom used to say, “liars figure and figures lie”🤪
This the only guy I have been waiting for to give me the real deal. Forget the polls.
Just watch his weekly livestreams on his UA-cam channel. He talks at length about different topics and it's not always with people like on here asking him why Biden is losing.
He’s not god
Trump will win
100% me too. I remember when he said that Trump would win in 2016, when no one else thought that he would (I actually hoped he was wrong that year lol). I remember when he said that Biden would win in 2020.
@@TheRealTommyRhas he predicted this year yet
@@ndo533 He has not officially predicted this year. He said that he will provide his official prediction in August. (His official predictions always occur in the fall before the election when there is enough final information/results). He did say that so far things are looking in favor of Biden, but that could change between now and then.
So really he's predicted nothing. He's looking at polls just like everybody else, and guessing in August, just like everybody else, when the election is closer 🤷♂️
Seems like a smart guy. I like how he’s just sticking to facts…I would imagine he’s got a better chance of an accurate prediction than everyone else trying to guess how people feel about the candidates.
He never promotes his podcast. He is fantastic!
I watch him and Sam every week. He's brilliant and I love how he just says to ignore polls because I agree that the polls seem very wrong.
What's the podcast (apologies if it was mentioned in the clip &I tuned it out)?
THANKS JAYE!
Thanks for having me!
Initially, I thought this comment wasn't truly from you, but after going to the associated channel, I believe it's you. Sir, it seems you are more often right and perhaps even never wrong. I hope your streak doesn't stop now. The consequences could be horrific.
@@richardk6196 it's me!
@@AllanLichtmanUA-cam I cant understand why anyone would vote for Biden. Things are bad in America and around the world, I'm still angry about us getting defeated in Afghanistan.
@@richardk6196The consequences of Joe getting another 4 years to plunge the world even further into w4r and r3cession are the ones we should be afraid of. I genuinely don’t think our country would survive it.
@@theLegendarySpaceCaptainTrump had the same plan, it was never going to be easy to leave after 20 years.
So he just skipped over short and long term economy, two keys on his own list, at which Biden has failed miserably, along with foreign policy, social unrest (crime), sounds more like Trump will win, using this criteria.
Is CHEATING a bullet point to this GEEKS prediction?
Reagan said 3 strikes and your out.
Yet Trump has 91. WTF??
This GOP's 2 votes for Trump were double taps to the Reagan legacy.
Trying everything to not elected trump ..😂😂.. while the world is in inflation ,wars and illegal immigrants, any day a terrorist attack can happen...that biden is overseeing 😂😂.. come to reality trump is the best hope for america to run good
Keep coping harder liberal. Biden has committed more crimes and admitted he was corput on camera and he hasn’t been touched. Its all a planned game.
He said "3 strikes and you're out".
only 88 currently, to be fair, thanks to a horny DA in Georgia but yes you have the right idea. The GOP is dead, it's the MAGA party at least for now
Get registered, prepare to vote if you need help, transportation, information of location!!! Don’t be caught last minute thinking “oh well, somebody else will vote for me”!!! When you look at the significant numbers of people in America who are not registered to vote…you realize why we are in the mess we are in!!! Just do it!!!
Vote Trump.
@@nielwilliams4687 Yes, vote for a criminal!
@@MrPatrickworthingtoncriminals are in prison. Trump isn’t. So by definition he’s not a criminal.
@@MrPatrickworthington ... the only criminal is the one that took millions in bribes from the Chinese Communist Party... from Ukraine and God knows from how many Big Corporations... He is also sponsored the biggest invasion of people without checking their background America has ever endured and is trying, but will not have any success, to transform America in a Banana Republic weaponizing the Justice Department to rig an election... It doesn't matter... President Trump will win in a LANDSLIDE... America Will Be Great Again... in spite the Haters of America now fraudulently in power... TRUMP 2024!!!
yes, will vote for trump because the economy is a mess, inflation is destroying families, war all over the country financed by the moron who is president right now, and men can be in women bathrooms. Biden and the democratic party are evil.
Everything is too expensive 😭
And prices are only going UP so start saving some money!
Not for me.
Everything will get expensive even if trump win
@@elymariahsanchez219exactly. People believe if Trump wins prices will go down. Prices aren’t going down no matter who wins.
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage
With the help of Ms Angela, I bought a new House and a car her in State and also paid for my son's surgery (Kelvin) all Glory to God almighty.
I'm supprised that this name is being mention here, I stumbled across one of her client testimony on CNBC just last week@@RuthMartin-xl5vq
Yee! She works with people all over the world and she's the best you can ever come across with.@@JackMelissa
The fact that I got to learn and earn from her, Ms Angela program is everything to me, Think about it, it's a win-win for both ways.
I would rather have an old but mentally stable president who gets the job done than an old immature narcissistic conman & cult leader who is facing criminal charges and wants dictatorship
Biden is literally using our justice system to "go after" his political opponent
what job done? record high inflation, 3 wars outside started, social unrest, people being sent to prison for protesting, high grocery prices, weak president?
RIGHT ON !
You forgot to add that Trump is a rapist
Mentally stable??? Are all MASS child killers mentally stable, in your opinion???
The Social Unrest key should not turn because the protests are small relative to the 350 million people who live in the country. They seem bigger than they are because of our wonderful media (sarcasm intended).
I heard they turned the sprinklers on the campers. Good way to get rid of them.
@@owenbowen1090deplorable
The protests aren't as large now as they were in 2020, but if you think these are 'small' you are not paying attention, but also underestimating the effect it may have on the election. Especially given the fact they are like a week only and completely spontaneous, but they are only getting bigger, not smaller. And with the police forces sending in riot gear, literal military equipment, and even snipers to sit on rooftops, I would be willing to guess they are only going to get bigger as time passes. That isn't to say that these will still be happening in November 2024, but the idea these are small is just stupid.
That also doesn't even get into what the Democratic convention in Chicago is going to look like this summer, assuming that Biden's policy of aiding and abetting Israel with their ethnic cleansing of Palestine is still occurring. Nobody knows what exactly will happen, but the Social Unrest key should absolutely 100% turn against him and if you think otherwise you are living in a bubble and deluding yourself of what people in the real world actually think about this current policy. Don't aid in handing the election to Trump by underestimating how bad Biden's policy is on this issue... all Trump has to do is lie to the public, fake-position himself to the left of Biden, and say that 'he will bring peace' and he probably steals just enough votes to win some swing states. This issue is costing Biden the election and EVERY single piece of polling data says it is. Even if you think the opinion polls are 'fake' or are a dozen points off, which has literally never happened before in the history of polling and is an Alex Jones level conspiracy theory- even if the polls are off by a dozen points Biden is still UNDERWATER to the point where he may not even win the popular vote like he did in 2020.
@@Black_CaucusLoL, people protesting isn't unrest. The summer of love under the trump administration during Co-Vid was social unrest.
What we have now is another occupy Wall Street. That didn't hurt Obama one bit.
@@Black_CaucusBut what I don't get is, everyone knows perfectly well that Trump is pro Israel and anti Muslim. They must know that under Trump it would be much much much worse for Gaza. And if he lied about it, if he criticized Israel in the least he would lose the Evangelicals, who have this weird thing about Israel and Jesus' coming or something ( the Rapture I think they call it). So it just doesn't make sense to me that anyone would vote for Trump thinking he would help Gaza.
When you pasture beef on land that is unable to produce decent grain yields but can host grass (but not taken from forests) cattle farming has minimal net impact. Unfortunately this is rare nowadays
I think there is a flaw in the assumption that all keys should be weighted equally
does he weight them equally?
Yeah he does
oh suddenly you have a Ph.D. now and know better than him?
@@rockybalboa4593Having a degree doesn't mean you're always right, my guy.
While they are all weighted equally, he has said in the past that the 2nd key is the most important one which is that the incumbent party has no primary contest, which biden has. 23 out 28 when this key was true (which it is) they won
He could have included "nausea index".
Oh boy I so hope you are right Prof.
You won't know America if he becomes president again I hope he is WRONG! Okay, you think everything is high now ha you haven't seen high. And if America wants to vote for this old man that falls and can't read a teleprompter fine but I'm not sinking with this ship✈️
❤
Such a great and good fun interview 👏👏👍👍
Foreign military success or failure should be in one category.
Stop and think about how many calls you receive and don't answer. Polling accuracy is at an all time low.
The polls predicted Hillary would win. They said it so much that it almost sounded like a done deal. Then, people got turned off from them for a while... surprised that they are back.
He did predict that Trump would lose back in 2020 mostly due to social unrest and scandal ...
How can we credit him for 2016 when he back-talked 2000 and claimed he won because of popular vote? You can't have it both ways!
@@hebronharvester1487because you didn't listen to what he said in detail about 2000.sit down Trumper
@@hebronharvester1487huh? He predicted Trump would win in 2016!
@becks3709 yes, but Trump won the electoral vote. He predicted Gore would win in 2000 based on popular vote, so there isn't consistency. Can't have it one way and then a different way the next time. Whichever one you give him, he was wrong on the other.
@jacobstravail I'm actually never said I was a Trumper, yet you go accusing me of that just because I dissent. 2000, he claimed it was a popular vote and then walked back his claim... he was wrong in 2000, which means 2016 is arguably wrong, one or the other... you can't have it both ways. That being said, he had it right every other time. But he hasn't been 100% correct. Has nothing to do with Trump.
My overall point is I would not just trust him that Biden will win. You still gotta go out and vote. There's gonna be a time he will be wrong.
No one should take the predictive reliability of political polls seriously.
I took Allan Lichtman's class at American University. Amazing Professor brilliant.
The fact that it's even close is mind boggling. It's sickening. Vote Blue.
😂😂😂
These polls are lies do not believe them.
Maybe the glasses in which you view the world are a bit cloudy. Clean them and you might see some facts and fairness.
@@RH-cv1rg
Maga Republicans run from facts the way roaches run from light and bug spray.
It’s baffling how anybody besides the mentally unwell would vote for donald.
How come the trump approval rating in November 2020 was 32% now 49%. Something is very fishy about it.
Biden fuct up big time on both Ukraine and Gaza conflicts
Opinions have changed since then, it's been 4 years you can't expect it to be the same.
I like how he's just not gonna mention either of the economy keys 👀
Don't make America stupid again...
Agree that’s why you shouldn’t vote for Biden the dumbest president ever
You must love high inflation, wars and open borders
America is already stupid
Imagine voting to destroy America, FJB🖕🏿
America never stopped being stupid. Point in case - Your comment.
This is why I like Professor Lichtman...gets right to the point, doesn't spoil anything...he's a distinguished professor and you normally trust people like him.
You trust him, because he supports your narrative. If it is the opposite, then he might be the most untrusworthy professor for you.
He argues he was right in 2000 because of popular vote, but wouldn't that make him wrong in 2016? This guy is knowledgeable but I don't know these "keys" apply every election... this feels different today.
@@hebronharvester1487 With how ridiculously close the 2000 election was (Gore lost because of a handful of votes in a state where his opponent's brother was the governor), I wouldn't hold it against him. And he did predict a Trump victory in 2016.
@samenders1074 he's a smart guy, don't get me wrong. I just can't give him credit for 2000. I also think that the keys in 2024 are going to be radically different than any other election. He also hasn't even considered the 3rd party key as RFK Jr. Is making noise... the economy was liked by many under Trump... hard to see every key applying in this election.
@samenders1074 by the way, I'm not being one-sided here. I'm just saying he correctly predicted 2016 with the same fault he disregarded in 2000. That's not a reliable outcome. He's been right every other time but this election I feel is different
Of course he is going to say that, he is on CNN.
hope you right!!
Was waiting for this dude, the key master, to pop up on CNN.
If he was predicting Trump, CNN wouldn't have him on!!
❤
I’ll DEFINITELY be saving this one, making sure to remind myself this was posted May, 1, 2024.
When Biden trounces Trump AGAIN maybe Trump will finally get it. “YOU’RE FIRED!!!”
@@phrogme2450 Lol it’s funny how confident you are in your statement.
@phrogme2450 Trump will win or America will lose. It's that simple
If Biden wins your country is fucked. Get off his payroll and help your country. Just admit trump is the answer and the left couldn't run a bath.@@phrogme2450
@@jakr430 He's in on the steal
My confidence in this man's predictions are higher than any President's vow or promise
The only thing I'm afraid of is that people emotionally play based on emotion a lot of times
That would be great, because people are quite emotional about their bank account.
@@athena3865Maybe they’ll think back to 4 years ago when they were broke and out of job…
Who are they polling? I've never been asked
I say this to myself every time. A lot are still done via phone. Younger folks don't have land lines and are at work during the day. Retired boomers have landlines.
Cause u don’t matter
@@Boomhauersdad real mature,
@@Boomhauersdadthat’s not very nice
I mean, they count anything as a poll, if you donate to someone’s campaign, you are contributing to the poll, if you vote for someone, that contributes to a poll.
Biden will win - providing WE ALL VOTE FOR HIM!
Why would you want to?
@@epic103 Because the alternative is much worse. Project 2025 is literally Fascism and Totalitarianism.
@@epic103lol😂😅
going to be a lot of dead people voting for him
My family and I are voting Trump
🤣 hilarious. One of the candidates can’t even find the stage exit. Says a lot about the American voter.
Yep trump is a babbling old fool.
CANDACE OWENS ON CNN!?!?!?!!?! LORD HAVE MERCY.
Someone said: “it’s the economy stupid”
Specifically, unemployment.
@@Alexadria205 True. The economy is way better than 4 years ago. Unemployment is at record lows. The public perception of those is a different story. Many say that they miss the economy of Trump, but in reality, the economy 4 years ago was a disaster. And due to Trump's mishandling of Covid, people were desperate to find things as basic as toilet paper.
I've spoken to some nice, well-intentioned people who thought that many of Biden's great achievements were actually Trump. They get their news from Tic-Toc and UA-cam. Hard to combat that.
One big issue here is that the economy, both long term and short term, is strong. But people seem to think it isn't. Currently six of his points are false, giving Trump a win. If RFK drops out, it's five, giving Biden a win.
But if we factor in that people seem to believe that the economy sucks, then currently eight points are false, giving Biden zero chance.
@@RegebroRepairs It’s the debt that is the problem 35T$. Biden wants 7T$ budget for 2025 from 4T$, plus’s raising capital gains taxes from 15% to 46.5%. Finance the debt will take 1.5T$ Add everything together US goes into recession maybe depression.
@@RegebroRepairs claiming that the economy is doing well or bad is moot without defining your indicators of economic health. In traditional market based measures of economic success we are successful while when looking at individual economic conditions the reality becomes far more grey.
It is now known that Al Gore won in Florida and thus had more electoral points in addition to the popular vote, but this recount was after the fact by a non-governmental organization. If you recall, the Republican Supreme Court blocked an official recount in Florida in December 2000, whereas it permitted THREE recounts in Georgia after the 2020 election.
I don’t remember Gore jumping up and down claiming the election was stolen from him (which it was by Jeb Bush). Gracefully, he allowed the transition of power to occur.
That is an outright lie. It is NOT known. The actual recount that was in progress which the Supreme Court blocked would have given Bush the win in 3 of the 4 standards for what constitutes a vote for President, including the standard that was most widely used by States with defined standards. So even if the recount had finished, Bush wins. This count was only looking at Ballots that didn't have a vote for President. A later study that included Under Votes (no vote for President) and Over Votes (votes for more than one Presidential candidate) showed that Gore would have won by two of the considered standards and Bush would have won by two of the considered standards, including the most widely used standard. There was one later study that looked at statewide uncounted votes that would give Gore a slight lead if they looked at Under votes (no vote for President) and Over Votes (votes for more than 1 Presidential Candidate). Gore NEVER requested looking at ballots that had more than one vote for President. It was never ordered by the Florida Supreme Court. It was never seriously under consideration. The only thing considered were ballots without a vote for President to determine if there was an intention to vote for President. When those statewide ballots were looked at Bush still won (but by lower than the official margin). Only when you looked at Ballots where people voted for more than one candidate did that one study determine Gore would have won. To say it is "known" that Al Gore won Florida is either an outright lie or you are incredibly stupid.
Actually after all of the 2000 Florida votes were thoroughly counted months after the election, Bush had more votes than Gore.
Wow....
So absolutely true, and tragic! There really needs to be a true documentary about this. Sad that this is being forgotten and overlooked. TrumpLoses by thousands in different states and people still think it was rigged......how far we have fallen as nation.
What a joke, the one he got wrong he got right..... No, the one he got wrong he got wrong.
It's not hard to be good at guessing when the chances are 50/50
They've got to make it look really close 😂
Yeah, it won't be close when Trump loses in November lol
Yes the media makes a lot of money from this
Oh course they do. If it looked like a landslide, their voters would stay home thinking it doesn’t matter their candidate has got it already.
They keep saying Trump is leading in the polls and it will send Biden supporters out in droves because if they don’t vote he will lose.
He says his method only predicts the popular vote and that’s why he got 2000 wrong, but he predicted Trump in 2016 but he lost the popular vote. So either way it’s a flawed system.
Except Trump didn't lose the popular vote when you eliminate all the ballot stuffing and unconfirmed suitcases of votes for Biden that suddenly appeared at 3 in the morning.
But he is a "professor" so we are supposed to believe everything he says. LOL LOL. Not!
The reason for this discrepancy is that he changed his style of prediction. Gore lost in 2000 due to the electoral college. Lichtman decided to start calling the winner of the electoral college, not just the winner of the popular vote.
He 100% accurately predicted 2000, Gore won both electoral and popular at end of the day, the unlawful business in Florida was later found out to be that Gore won the state
@@patriotmama his credentials are his track-record - 9 correct predictions out of 10 is good
It s all about votes not voters due to vote harvesting and mail in voting. The system is rugged voters are irrelevant.
what about the economy short/long term? You don't have him losing those "keys"?
Polls are obnoxious and almost always wrong.
I believe it was the philosopher Cliff Clavin (from TV show Cheers) who said, "If you go back in history and take every President, you'll find that the numerical value in each of their names, was equally divisble into the year in which they were elected. By my calculations, our next President has to be named... Yelnik McWawa".
Someone from Wakanda State
Forgot to mention the short and long-term economy... military failures... challenger charisma... This is a good set of criteria but I don't think he's judging them very well. One thing is for certain, this guy thinks he's very smart.
It's called knowing that they're cheating.
81 years of age vs 81 felonies
Felonies all day
One felony a day keeps jail away... when you're part of the elite.
and ZERO convictions.
I'm voting trump
Since Jan 6, 2021 I can’t see that DJT has added to his support in a general election! It’s actually the reverse.
I took a class in college called Statistics. Predicting literally any outcome can be achieved through a mathematical equation. I failed miserably.
I took statistics in college and in my graduate program. Got an A both times. Not hard if you pay attention
One of your mistakes is probably thinking that predictions are binary. Statistics is sometimes about the chance that something is true, or the chance that something will happen.
Trophy or parade….you pick@@lawrencetalbot8346
Statistics was the 2nd easiest class in college. The easiest being basket weaving.
@@lawrencetalbot8346i think i got a B cause I didn't do any homework
Someone can be right all day, but the first time they’re ever wrong is when they’re paid to be.
Just check who has more money
Yup
My family has never been polled we have 5 Biden voters. 🤔 I never believed polls. He’s no Franklin Roosevelt but he will go down as one of the greatest presidents in history. The next four years will bring amazing change mark my word. Check any psychic. 💙💙
Lots of political terrorist traitors in your family. Shame!!!!!
🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮
I and not a single friend or family has ever been polled.
None of us answer unknown callers however.
Do you own hotels occupied by illegals pay by the government?
My family and I are voting Trump 2024.
I watched this video to the end . 😂😂😂😂😂hilarious
What a fun, lively and engaging conversation between these two mediators. Thanks CNN.
Hillary was light years ahead in the polls... we know how that turned out. Being ahead in the polls at this stage of the game isn't a good sign.
Do you really support Killary ?
@@nielwilliams4687 you're what's wrong with this country
not a good sign nor is it bad. thats the point of this. dont follow the polls
Yes, this is true...there was a hidden mass of "silent" Trump voters, unwilling to admit that they would cast a vote for such a candidate. QUESTION of THE MOMENT: Does Joe Biden have a hidden mass of "silent" supporters, unwilling to admit that they would vote for an 82 year old puppet? Are they feigning support for Trump?
Hillary couldn’t fill a high school gymnasium, while Trump was having overflow crowds at stadiums on a regular basis!
Did she not listen to what he said? He told her exactly where things stand. Girl needs to listen.
Bet she didn't understand a single thing and just wanted to simple it out for her or maybe viewers
*She typically tends to be a bit detached. Her descriptive coverage of the man in front of the Trump building was a bit bizarre. She also has shown her own agenda in her reporting.*
She's a political commentator/pundit. This sort of thing is good for television. She's not seriously expecting an answer and knows there isn't one but it's entertaining to see the back and forth.
its all their agenda to mind control.people to vote their agenda. So they lie, lie, lie... lie out their stinky arse to the public. CNN has the lowest ratings of reporting truthful news... go calculate that.
@@TheDropdeadZed I sure wouldn't call her a pundit! Lol.
#rfk jr... not voting for either of these 🤡🤡🤡🤡
Your choice between vomit and crap. America is toast.
That's how I felt in 2016, but Trump absolutely changed my mind. He's the first candidate I'm actually happy to vote for, rather than just voting in self-defense.
No one is voting for a womanizer criminal who takes away women's rights. This next election is going to be a LANDSLidE!
Really glad you brought him on today, thanks.
❤
I have been watching this guy predict election after election in advance and he is always right. Genius method, I’m not sure how he came up with this system of prediction.
And I'm real sure he got rick in Vegas.
He went to Harvard and specialized in history and quantitative methods. He combined those skills to figure out how to predict elections. I’ve been watching him election after election also. He has books.
@@JimDandy-rn4vd Why Vegas? He gets appearance fees and book residuals that surge every four years; that's much better than whatever Vegas could give him.
And it's illegal to gamble on political elections.
His method boils down to this: will there be a manufactured crisis that the press blames on the incumbent.
…I’m guessing that 2024 will be his 2nd “miss” ( Most Americans will just not accept his “passing” on debates-no matter what excuse his staff make, it will be seen as confirmation of his mental decline )
Shouldn’t your “keys” be weighted? I doubt they are all of equal value.
Why? That is so stupid!
Seriously. Laura Coates - what are you doing? He said that something major would have to shift otherwise he will predict Biden. She keeps pushing him [with a joking tone] to make a prediction he's already stated clearly.
The popular vote doesn't matter in the national election for President. It's going to be decided by voters in a few dozen counties in 5 key battleground States. It's actually very ridiculous when you think about it.
Popular vote should trump all but it doesn’t unfortunately.
And that is the Scary part. Trump lost both elections with the popular vote.
Civics is crying.
Votes aren't enough this time: a few red states will withhold certification for Biden, he won't reach 270 electoral votes and (per the Constitution) it goes to one vote per state and (R)s hold the majority. This has happened twice before in US history.
Agree. The voting system is structured so that the minority has a better chance of winning than the majority. It is rigged at the onset, so that just in case.....
Because professors are never wrong
He forgot the key: natural death by age.
Where do you guys get these polls from? They’re always totally off when it comes times for elections
Right, name me where Trump would be getting voters from, besides his base, ridiculous!
@@psongman9536Travel to any rural county and you’ll see.
If you want to do these polls you got to go to ddhq .. they to the polls.
@@psongman9536people like you are the problem. You voted for that gd p o s dementia patient that is currently in the White House.
@psongman9536 Middle class working people outside of progressive brainrot cities. That's where his base is.
No way Donald and Biden should be nearly 50/50. To me, this says more about America than it does about either candidate. A lot of people wouldn’t want a man with Donald’s character to live next door to them, but they have no problem making him the most powerful man in the world. We should all find that dynamic disturbing.
You’re absolutely right about the next door comment.
It says the most about the polls themselves and how unreliable they can be as a predictor of anything.
@@occupybarstools5205 Yes! Every day the numbers change. At this point I think the people who want DONT want Donald are gonna vote for Biden. The people who WANT Donald are gonna vote for Donald. I don’t think anyone is changing their minds, yet the poll numbers change every single day, as if people are changing their minds every single day. I’m a veteran. Character, integrity, honor and morals mean something to me. Donald doesn’t care about any of those things. I’m not a fan of Biden, or any politician for that matter. But I know a man like Donald should never be a United States president. I think he’s gonna win the election tho. Biden is boring. Trump is exciting. Americans like entertainment. Donald is entertaining.
We are hiring Don as an employee not neighbor. This is what people mean when they say dems vote based on emotions.
I would love Trump as my neighbor. Biden should be locked in the basement