Crazy Seller Story | They are Giving Up
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- Опубліковано 21 чер 2024
- This is a Data centric Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates
Ethan Flynn
www.ethanflynn.com
423-767-6000
tflynn@realtracs.com
www.ethanflynn.com
Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min
Newsletter: ethanflynn.substack.com/p/com...
TN CPA License: 24309
TN Real Estate License: 356949
greaternashvillerealtors.org
www.realtracs.com
Recurve Real Estate
DANA JORGENSEN
PRINCIPAL BROKER | OWNER
LICENSE: 344195
(615) 496-3837
dana@recurverealestate.com
#housingmarketupdate #nashville #housingcrash #housingmarket
![You're about to MISS the best Land Deals [2024]](/img/n.gif)
www.ethanflynn.com
Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min
Newsletter: ethanflynn.substack.com/
We are now in a new world since the pandemic. A landlord needs to include the probability that the government will impose a rent moratorium and/or eviction controls.
Exactly!
Very possible. I think this is why so many are moving to Tn. Smaller gov.
Same thing is happening in south Denver. Things are about to get crazy.
No kidding! What are you seeing?
@@EthanFlynn you're a smart guy u can figure out
Sure they’ll take $200k less than asking… it’s most likely still $500k or more over 2019 valuation.
Pretty much but that’s the point. There’s so much equity we could see massive price drops because owners just want to move on.
Hahahahha. Try $700k over. WITH the “big” price cut.
Agreed, most buyers are mortgage buyers, and for them you are correct. However, for a cash buyer in a downward market, it does not matter if he buys or not. He is selling a house in a downward market, and buying one in a downward market. He will lose either way - if he stays or if he sells and buys another house. Rates don’t matter for cash buyer, though it does matter if he is selling. The best a cash buyer can do is to sell in a seller’s market and buy in a buyer’s market.
Great point. Also, cash buyers still have opportunity cost.
Great insight ❤
@@EthanFlynn Moving costs and commissions can be made up for in several years if moving to areas with a relatively lower cost of living.
Thanks for mentioning the devaluing of the dollar at the end of your video please go into detail in a future video
🎉🎉🎉 Hi Ethan 👋🏼
Your point of view makes perfect sense to me. I agree with you 100%. Regarding the first part of this video.
(I think you got it RIGHT).
I think that the majority of people don’t really get the full picture about renting out a place. I have always offered a great price for the both of us (owner and Renter) while hoping that the renters will stay as long as possible and be happy 😃. Because when you lose a renter… It really costs the owner a lot of money 💵! First you have to clean and possibly paint the unit , Then post it and wait for hopefully another great renter But in the meantime you will be losing several months of income which will change the bottom line of your investment. Great renters are hard to find but when you get a great one, Hold on to them as long as possible.
I Love the way you think Ethan 👍❗️
You always bring great content to each video you put out.
Thank you and God Bless, Carlos
I hope my comments made sense to you 😊.
Thank you Carlos! Absolutely. Good tenants are key. Treat them well and keep them.
In West Palm
Beach Florida, in my community alone (550 homes) there are 16 active listings. Rarely has there been that many on the market at any given time. Buyers seem to have left and homes aren’t even getting many showings. Prices are reducing, but very slowly, sellers haven’t given up hope…..yet. It will take job losses for that and the job market is definitely slowing. My projection is, we will not have a real estate “crash” rather a “soft landing”. Thank you for the great insight.
If you look at houses for sale and then cost of replacement vaule. Materials are what is keeping the market from crashing. The changes in the market are crazy. You can not build or replace a home for what you can buy one for currently per sqft. Once materials come down, so will the market. HARD
Great input 😊
someone willing to pay $10k rent in Nashville? must be very rare
I am pretty awed by the buyers in the past 15 months - unfazed by the all-time-high monthly payment ever, pushed median price to all time high up to now. I live in a Houston suburb, the sales are falling around the area but the price still goes higher. Just do not know what the heck is going on.
Watched a video on Toronto condos today, people paying top $ for a 300-400 sqft condo in the past few years. Now they are stuck - 12k condos alone on sale at greater Toronto area.
For this particular situation it’s two rents. An ADU and a house. So combined $10K, but there is shockingly a lot more $10K rents than I would have imagined.
After 2008 and the Frank Dodd bill, the Federal reserve gave investment banks a blank check to buy up "distressed" properties to prop up the housing market. With near 0% interest rates they basically turned the housing market into a stock or currency market, buying and selling "investment" properties amongst themselves. Aka all those cash buyers you hear about. Like the stock market they can push prices up and down based on the funny money and trading things between themselves. So its become totally divorced from reality. Now the money is no longer cheap so all that trading activity has stopped. Houses will crash down to what the market aka people who want to actually live in the house are willing to pay. 1.3 million for that piece of crap in the video is insane. That would have been 300k-500k 10 years ago. With remote work you can live in basically a palace in Asia for less than 300k purchase price with two full time servants. Why would I enslave myself to a 10k a month mortgage in Nashville??? Life is better elsewhere. More opportunities elsewhere.
You said this house does not make sense as an investment but also showed it is 2k per month positive cash flow by your estimates? So it does or does not work as investment? You also checked both boxes on this house showing it is in the lower quartile and cash flows for rental. Can you clarify? Is this house a good buy or not?
Great question! To clarify that is essentially what both doors would rent for. But this is an attached apartment with separate entrance. So the $2,500/mo is fully furnished with utilities included. The main would rent for $6-8K but it would be weird to rent them both because of the proximity to the attached apartment. Not sure there’s a market to rent them both.
So the point is that you could rent the apartment and get a $8K house for much less.
You could flip it but you would need to renovate $100-200K for bathroom/kitchen. That pushes up the price significantly and then the return becomes less attractive with the uncertainty of carrying costs and timing. You would likely have to sell next spring. That gets expensive to hold.
So if you are looking to buy in the neighborhood it’s a homerun IMO but just can’t get there with investment.
Do anybody know why the homes seem extremely over priced?
Everything still overvalued because we're still in the bubble - 2024 approximately 2008-9
Unless our currency is the bubble.
15% isn't nearly enough. We need a reset to 2019 prices. All of last 4 years was bologna money printing fugazi... Ok maybe 2019 + 10%
I don’t know. After $8T in printing you think we are going back to 2019? Inflation is too high and will be too high IMO
Problem is rates were 5% in 2019. And real incomes have declined since 2019. So in reality, it’s not 2019 prices + 10% it’s 2019 prices - 10%.
its not about the neighbourhood, GDP of Nashville is mere $188 billions, vs NYC $1.2 T, yet medium housing cost in NYC is only $980k. RE in Nashville is overpriced due to lack of supply for years, but this was turned around in recent years. unless there's abundance of high paying jobs in Nashville, which is not the case, then given today's high interest environment, weaknesses in the economy, housing that are priced in the millions in Nashville will continue to experience little interest from the "smart" buyers. in addition, from a macro economic view, there are many headwinds against USD, many countries are abandoning USD, PetroDollar was abandoned just this month from the Saudi, it is more than risky to invest heavily in anything that's priced in USD, everyone by now knows that the USD is backed by nothing but thin air. if RE investors have money to spare, investing in farmland or building infrastructures that produces livestock are the only ways.
Waste of money for a house that's overpriced
Only offer 100k for anything you look at drive the prices down buyers
From a traders standpoint these peak sales valuations look like a blow off top. The "book" isn't reflecting that reality with mega asking cuts hitting my favorites list this week. Not just cuts, huge reductions like 15-25% range.
Can you share more? What area?
I’m not buying my first home till I can get a 1500 mortgage and not a moment sooner. Good luck bag holders!
You can buy now for $1,500/mo.
@@EthanFlynnyes, a tiny house
Are you buying bitcoin right now?
No. I wish I would have mined it when I first heard about it 10+ years ago. But no I don’t get it.
@@EthanFlynn Zero yielding “assets” are a 0% interest rate phenomenon. Makes no sense now but not all bubbles have popped yet.
@@EthanFlynn you should buy some. Just saying. Still early.
@@EthanFlynn there is a channel called Invest Answers. James does an amazing job explaining math, money & freedom. 📈
WHAT will "crash"?
That's the question.
Because with 30 - 40% inflation. What price are you looking to gain? 100% 200%?
Inflation is at 40% RIGHT NOW. If you don't believe that, then wait for your "crash". Lol. It's not coming.
Inflation is 40%. Can you explain? Also, I personally don’t think there’s a crash coming but hold room for a possibility.
Did you get that from the video?
@@EthanFlynnYour video is great. I'm just making a general point. Most real estate channels are talking about "waiting for the dip". Warren Buffett is "waiting for the dip".
It is very RARE when everyone is "doing ABC" and then ABC transpires.
If everyone is "waiting for the dip" and we are heading into an election, and we have Japan selling treasuries, I simply can't comprehend how prices can go "down" relative to a dollar that HAS to be inflated.
Most people did not expect 2008.
Everyone and their dog is "wating for the crash" in 2024.
I think they'll be waiting forever.
Prices are heading down. I know because I've been shopping for a house for 6 months. I've been on Zillow for hours every day.
Yes, they are heading down right now, yes, but only because everyone is WAITING. The cash is there. The treasuries will be sold, and the Fed will print.
Nothing stops this train
NASHVILLE realtor here.. Starting to see price drops EXCEPT zip code 37206, 37201 downtown/Church Street. I live in Franklin and am keeping my eye on Westhaven, Avalon, Lookaway Farms, (Clovercroft Road), Berry Farms and Mckays Mill.
Not seeing price drops downtown? Isn’t that mostly condos down there?
@@EthanFlynn Yes and it seems that area is still quite active. 37206 (East Nashville) anywhere near the Oracle campus and the new Stadium is very popular seems to be getting more expensive