Nashville's Real Estate Problem | Rent vs Buy
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- Опубліковано 31 тра 2024
- This is a Data centric Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates
Ethan Flynn
www.ethanflynn.com
423-767-6000
tflynn@realtracs.com
www.ethanflynn.com
Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min
Newsletter: ethanflynn.substack.com/p/com...
TN CPA License: 24309
TN Real Estate License: 356949
greaternashvillerealtors.org
www.realtracs.com
Recurve Real Estate
DANA JORGENSEN
PRINCIPAL BROKER | OWNER
LICENSE: 344195
(615) 496-3837
dana@recurverealestate.com
#housingmarketupdate #nashville #housingcrash #housingmarket
www.ethanflynn.com
Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min
Newsletter: ethanflynn.substack.com
You have razor sharp reasoning/analysis skills. I've lived in Los Angeles for over 4 decades, well almost 5 soon. You are correct about the LA/Vegas relationship. Inventory in LA is ridiculously low now. So low, that I personally label it "statistically impossible inventory". As in..."really, no one has a life?" NO death, divorce, layoffs, promotions, relocations, soured partnerships/deals, NOTHING???. So yes, this dearth is forcing people to Sin City for a "deal" (no deals anymore!). But if inventory ever returns to greater SoCal, I think Vegas prices will easily crater 30%, because that's just what happens. Phoenix has a similar relationship, but this bust may not be as dire there imo because Phoenix is legitimately absorbing a lot of California's disgusted businesses and becoming an epicenter for Western distribution centers.
Interesting. Do you think LA sellers will pick up in the next 12 months?
@@EthanFlynn I have the worst crystal ball on earth so I wouldn't venture a guess...but I really wonder how realtors, mortgage agents, escrow people, title people, stagers and drone pilots are putting food in the table right now!
15,000,000 to 20,000,000 (or more...) illegals has had a MASSIVE impact on home prices and rental availability....how people cant see that is beyond me. weve taken 5,000,000 homes/ apartments (probably more) off the market. we only have 144M dwellings. when 5,000,000 (or more) are taken....renters and buyers are all fked.
Ethan: the calculus is much simpler . I just researched Wilson County single family homes. The homes we are interested in run about $225/ft to buy ($750,000). I can rent the same home for
I couldn’t agree more. There are some gaps that are wild!
🎉🎉🎉🎉 Las Vegas is doing well?? That surprise’s the heck out of me 😮.
And the Rents going better than buying? That also blows my mind. All this data has been a ridiculous 🎢!
I had several properties in California and middle Tennessee during the last crash and I lost just about everything in California and my properties in Tennessee seemed like they weren’t touched at all.
You really surprise me each Saturday with your homework and data you bring us. I remember about 10 years ago when that special price mark for buying and selling was about $300,K
Now you can just double that and that’s where we are right now.
Thank you Ethan 👏👏❗️
You know that I love your channel and truly appreciate what you do for us.
Until next week,,, Blessings, Carlos
Thanks Carlos!
Las Vegas price is up yoy 8% for residential and multifamily is much stronger than other areas. It surprised me.
Vegas is doing VERY well. plus, the casinos are at record occupancy AND room rates AND record gambling income. this recession/ depression stuff seem to be 100% bullshit.... EVERYONE is rich. DOW/NAS at records. EVERYONE has money. audits LOTS of money. I dont understand it.
all I can figure is when unemployment is zero and McDonalds is paying $20, the rising tide HAS lifted all ships....
There’s always a delta between rent and buy analysis. There’s any number of inputs that create that variability as for mortgage rates being at 7% I would’ve given my first child to get that rate when I was young. My first mortgage was 17%. Thank God, I could renegotiate as they came down.
I would love 17% mortgage rates. Must have been fun refinancing all the way down.
Its cheaper to rent than it isnto buy here. Thats why im renting in williamson county. And even if it was a little cheaper to buy, i need $6k to sign a lease. I need 150k to sign mortgage docs. Its gotta be significantly cheaer to buy before it makes sense for me to tie up that kinda capital
Makes sense. Renting is so much cheaper right now. Why not buy off season in fall or winter and get an assumable loan or seller financing?
Normal ppl need to find the new fairly priced "middle tn like" area somewhere else in the country... where is that place? :)
Wait for an assumable and buy below means. The mismatch in rents to mortgage payment has to consolidate at some point.
Condos are usually the hardest hit during real estate downturns. That's because they are a favorite of speculators, who are clueless about their replacement value.
Probably right. Condos esp studio apartments make no sense.
Where do you get the rent data from?
MLS realtracs
Ethan, I have a question for you. Speaking of renting, how are people affording rent? I make decent money, u make good money I'm guessing, but alot of people even in urban America dont make decent or good. I think its only with the help of CC's. I would like to see a podcast with thoughts on America without CC's. Many would be walking around in rags and riding bicycles. What a completely different "landscape" that would be. Peace!
If things are being held together because of Credit Cards we are all in trouble.
That population bar chart is powerful to think about.....
Yeah. Wild to think how small TN in comparison.
This is nuts 😂
It is nuts!
a resident at atalecia told me their view got destroyed by a neighboring building, I would imagine that's contributing to downward pressure in addition to high rates
That is impacting one side of the building. Had a buyer interested on the other side, but ultimately didn't buy. With all of the luxury condos and apartments downtown, it's hard to make a case to buy there.
Tennessee will continue to go up in value the longer this goes on and people continue to flee the states like CA and NY
It seems that way. What do you think could slow it?
She doesn't live there any more.. Why post if not true
It’s an interesting fact that really doesn’t have a lot to do with the point of the tweet.
One of the most searched people in the world. This is how you generate views, comments, and impressions.
Is this why you are watching the video?
Hah, Tom Keene retweeted me once as well. I said something about my highschool job scooping ice cream at Baskin-Robbins and I guess he got a kick out of it.
That’s great.! Very cool how social media connects us all.
Bro you’re focusing on rentals whose renters are swimming in cash.
If you’re someone is lower class, your data is worthless.
People in lower and middle class should be buying homes if they possibly can afford the mortgage and planning to refi when rates drop cause hyperinflation will make them homeless when it hits.
And it’s going to hit.
What is it that you are wanting me to show? Where rents exceed mortgage payments?
That doesn’t exist right now in Nashville unless you are assuming a mortgage which typically takes a heavy down payment. This is why I would not recommend anyone buy unless they are cash heavy. Why buy when you can lock in a rent 30% below mortgage payment and not have to maintain?
I’m can’t see a scenario where buying an investment property makes sense unless you are paying cash. Even then I’d like my odds better in other investments. We moved for lifestyle reasons and retained a house we’d already owned for 8 years. That makes a lot of sense. We will see how this plays out.