The problem is INVESTORS. Never in history has there been so many investor activity in the residential sector. We need laws in the federal and/or state levels to limit investors. I see them on social media bragging about owning 20+, 50+ properties. This is a huge problem. They are over leveraged buying up too much, are in massive debt and expect renters to pay it off for them. This isn’t right.
Blame the FED. The 10 year ways paying 0.55%... you really going to fault an investor looking for more yield than $5,500 per year one 1 million dollars? That's a freaking joke of course investors looked for alternative investments.
Meanwhile here in north New Jersey 100 year old homes that haven't been updated since the 70s sitting on a fifth acre are $1 million. They are selling OVER asking price. It's ridiculous. I make $300k here and I can't reasonably afford a home without breaking the bank. None of these homes are worth the price that people are asking, but somehow there's still people buying for these crazy prices!
@@jacsmiPretty much anything in Bergen County. If I go down to Morris County then yes it becomes more affordable, but my family is up north and I work in the city. It also depends on your definition of afford. I have been approved to purchase a $1 million house (750k mortgage), but my monthly payment would be around $6500. Even though I make 300k, I also pay rent on my business, so rent combined between personal living and work is about $8000 per month which makes it difficult to jump from my current $3000 rent to over double that.
Yup, I’m in the DMV area and it’s insane.. it 100 percent makes more sense to buy land and build a home before buying these 30+ year old homes for 500k STARTING. People are S T U P I D. The math is not mathing.
It doesn't take long for inventory to shoot up and cause panic selling. Many people are over leveraged and mortgage is last to go. There's a record number of small to medium business closing, it's the bread and butter of America. It's just a matter of time. Yall can focus on all the charts all you want. The taxable America is broke.
Once it turns, it'll really turn. Psychology plays a huge role in economics.. how people "feel" is important. I think a lot of investors are sitting on equity and would like to sell and buy bonds paying 5%.. but selling a rental creates a massive tax bill.. however once prices start to clearly decline.. 2%, 5% 7% you will see the psychology flip.. these investors will think (correctly too) that I might as well sell now and pay the 90K in taxes because the home is going down in value anyway.
@@forte9910 wrong, many that got the house during pandemic are likely under. Just look what's happening on FL and TX. Absolute blood bath. With property and insurance cost F the mortgage.
Something that isn’t mentioned here, a possible reason that home prices are not decreasing with interest rate increases could be because of the private market investing in single family homes for premium prices.
The more prices ebb downwards, the more people will slide into negative equity, which will make them sell regardless of the low interest rate they have locked in. Eventually they still all rush for the exits.
Bingo. The math is 43% worse than 2007 peak bubble - it will all come crashing down now that consumer debt is at new all-time highs and corporations are laying off hundreds of thousands of salaried workers per month.
It has never been this way before. That is because there was never a time when wall street investment companies had this much control over the housing markets. When housing competes, home buyers gain the advantage. With so much control over the markets, pricing can be manipulated. That’s what we are seeing but no one wants to talk about it because the investors are getting rich.
The biggest issue is that the low inventory is a stilt that the housing market is balancing on. The other one is low unemployment. the majority of people cant afford a house and the ones who do buy a house are house poor. They are one missed paycheck away from disaster. And there are millions of people in this position. One layoff, one lost job, the house of cards will come crashing down.
State by state in FL we has a massive supply coming. The big reason a lot of people are not selling is because they purchased the home at an overprice rate and trying to get more. unfortunately, they purchased on the very top.
I see Florida had a remarkable 29% yoy inventory increase. That's hella impressive. We are in Texas and inventory is up 14% yoy and continuing to climb quickly, but Florida is in a league of their own.
@@1969bones69 400k for a sh1t box I can't even. It looks like the Tampa market has topped out at least after the median sales price has literally doubled since 2019. Here's hoping the downward descent is even faster.
Crazy times. I want to sell and move so bad, but inventory and prices (I don't care all that much about interest though I intend to get a mortgage) have made it completely prohibitive. The kicker? I own my current home outright. It's not just people with low mortgage rates that are stuck, people who own also are. I suspect if the market conditions improve where people are free to move about again, there will be a lot more pent up sellers than people think to counterbalance any pent up buying demand. I'll be one of them.
Inventory is alrrady skyrocketing in Florida. House prices peaked in 2005/2006 and didn't crash until after 2008. Finally bottoming in 2012. This cycle will be similar.
Very similar, but even worse. I tell people every day, the math is never wrong and it'll always catch up after the human emotion aspect of the economy falters out.
Your analysis may be true for Florida but important to know the causes. Increasing HOA, property taxes and extremely high house insurance is having an outsized effect there. Pretty soon only the very rich will be able to live there but that’s not the case everywhere.
@@steveguillory7568 people said the same thing in 2007. Inventory is already piling up in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and more. The prices will come down as Inventory increases. It's not going to be 'only rich people'.. this is what sales people say to get you to buy..
@@steveguillory7568 people said the same thing in 2007. Inventory is already piling up in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and more. The prices will come down as Inventory increases. It's not going to be 'only rich people'.. this is what sales people say to get you to buy.
@@steveguillory7568 Lots of people said the same thing in 2007. Inventory is piling up in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and more. The prices will come down as Inventory increases. It's not going to be 'only rich people'.. this is what sales people say to get you to buy..
All of these imbalances is due to the FED manipulating the market. Had they not pushed rates low for such a long time then there would not be the conditions we are seeing now. The problem is when politicians made the FED have a dual mandate. So they now determine rates based on employment. The money market needs to be free without employment being a consideration. Politicians need to create employment through policy not telling the FED to give out money at cocaine party rates.
I’ve said it 100 times in the past 5 years. I will not pay a million dollars for a modest house in the same shape and age of the one I grew up in. Good news: I was right, I won’t because they’re worth far more than that and I can’t afford it
In southern CA we're still see all cash buyers. Mostly foreigners from China. However, we've also seen an influx of city dwellers moving to the suburbs, further inflating prices.
There is also a monetary illusion, if prices are stagnant they are falling when inflation adjusted, it rising only slowly they may well also be falling when inflation adjusted. Im this is where its all, stagnant or slight increase/decrease
This MHFIN guy has flipped. Just look at his older videos. His videos used to be all about how there will be a 30% drop or a 50% crash and how the market will collapse. Now he seems to have given up.
The crash idea isnt gone by any stretch, just wait for unemployment to start moving higher and you’ll quickly see inventory skyrocket and prices drop! Should it have happened by now? YES! But we have a huge amount of liquidity still working. Its way though the economy, once it dries up, watch the free fall!
Private equity investors would be selling soon since usually around year 3 is when they start to wind down. Hedge funds as well so to not be left with holding the bag... Just curious what is percentage.
So basically we're going to keep this economy going for as long as we can until it literally hits the ground and starts combusting in to flames, this will not be a depression this will be a nightmare financially for everyone because right now when the inflation spikes up like a rocket and the dollar detaches itself from normal levels we're going to be just like Zimbabwe or Germany with wheelbarrows of money for bread. I personally feel like we have maybe 4 to 5 years of somewhat economic transactions with money and debt but after 2030 I think that's when everything will falter and hit the skids. I would buy Bitcoin and buy hard assets like gold /silver as a store of value while also actively trading...The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
It really helped trading with Francine Duguay analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..
Does this mean the people that bought homes with the 3% interest will see home price value hold or come down? Curious to know anyone's perspective on this
5:20 to 5:38 this man literally just described what an overpriced asset it. The sellers think something is worth one thing but all the buyers think it's worth much less. Eventually one has to budge, but usually the buyer cant just cough up an extra 15% on the most expensive purchase they'll ever make. Prices either must fall or you dont sell, its really that simple. The FOMO wave works the exact same up as down. up with greed and down with fear.
There are still people moving and paying cash, but the industry as a whole regarding volume, needs people that can qualify for a mortgage. The majority don’t qualify for what they want and realize it’s still cheaper to continue renting.
Let's not forget, for the 2008 housing crash, it didn't happen immediately - it took from early 2007 to mid-2008 for that demand destruction, unemployment uptick and ultimate supply surge to kill the market and cause a 40-50% crash in most areas. To the point where in late 2007, dozens of national news agencies were declaring that a "soft landing has been achieved and there will be no recession." The math is 43% worse today than it was in 2007. Unemployment is about to rocket past 10% and home values will come down 60-65%.
It’s really hard to sell, I bought in 2020 right at the start of Covid. My home has nearly doubled and my rate is 2.75%. So even if home price dropped back to where it was (which would mean homes would have to drop 50%) I would still be up because of the equity I have now. Add in the savings from mt low interest rate over time (vs buying another home now) and that means I would still break even if the home dropped 75% and stayed there. Don’t see how anyone would sell if they bought before 2023 unless they are paying all cash for their next home which is close to impossible for most people.
How so? The challenge is for a collapse like in 2008 we have people over leveraged and variable rate mortgages changing to higher rates which caused people to not be able to pay. A large chunk of houses during the 2019-2022 bubble took advantage of historical low rates and tons of people refinanced to these rates as well. There is no catalyst to force people to sell, so there is no real potential for a crash. There may be some room for modest decreases, but nothing near 2008. What we should be looking for is a market correction would would push the median home price to ~$370k vs today's $417k. New homes will be the place to look for lower prices is the foreseeable future, but event the builders are slowing builds with permits (down 4% YTD) and build starts (down 14%) down for the year. As the RedFin CEO said, the issue is we have too much of a gap between the Sellers list price and the buyer home value price to close deals. Its going to be a rough year or two for the industry as a whole.
It is a supply and demand story now. No supply and demand that over bids and drives prices up. With millions sitting on 3% mortgages and much higher prices to upgrade just a little why would you move?
it came to the point that saving money to built a home is much cheaper than pay a mortgage that with interest alone will cost 3 times or more in the long term
The number of mortgage applications is down around the lows of '95. It's around 1/4 what it was at the recent peak. For anyone earning a commission on sales, it's a recession, even if prices are high.
@@idnotapplicable it won’t as sellers will not be motivated , issue is forced or motivated sellers , who wants to sell their home these days . Nobody .
Today I got in a multiple offer situation with a buyer: a $1.3M house had five cash offers, most over ask. As an agent it is an ethical question: do I tell the buyer to go all in and get the house, or do I tell them to make sure to get an inspection and to not bid against themselves? I told them the latter, and unfortunately they did not get the house. They are disappointed, but as a buyer in this market outbidding four others, would that buyer not have Buyer's Remorse, knowing they probably spent too much? Good inventory is just so low right now. Hopefully good inventory will uptick ad be priced at market, rather than too high.
Not in Columbus Ohio. Things are still very hot. It’s the damn investors and speculators screwing things up. It should be illegal for corporations to buy single family homes.
@ the 5:00 mark, Glenn sounds like a typical realtor. Dude, prices are WAY TOO high. The only cure is a real recession that pushed unemployment above 5.5% for two years. Then and only then will prices return to the mean.
One thing this video isn't taking into consideration is the massive amount of homes private equity/Blackrock purchased to take advantage of huge rent price increases. Let's see what happens when the economy tanks, (it will),and all these private equity firms dumps their inventory and flood the market with homes. And they won't take a hit because it was all free money they bought these houses up with in the first place. And, the amount of profit they made in rents is astronomical! The market is much easier manipulated with social media now. People will believe anything. Especially when it's something they want to agree with aka confirmation bias. Here's an example, Bitcoin will be worth a million in 2030. There's no way. All that info is just priming and foreshadowing but people have a fomo so it works every time. There's a sucker born every minute. Cash is king. Save yours and when shtf...you will be ready.
These sellers and agents asking $900k for a piece of crap built in 1960s is absolutely ridiculous, on top of that, the interest rates for 30 year fixed is around 7%. Most Homes need huge renovations because of the outdated and deteriorating interior pieces, plus, the neighborhoods themselves are run down, especially in Blue Democrat controlled Cities. Why would someone put in $900k and pay 7% interest for 30 years for absolute garbage properties? These home sellers and agents are in for a huge wake up call.
Was with you until you decided to throw out the delusion that "Blue Democrat controlled cities" are the only ones with rundown neighborhoods. The midwest and south are inundated with trash neighborhoods. It's a matter of socioeconomic conditions, not political lines.
The next generation has a much harder path towards home ownership... but it can be done. Homes might be a bad investment for the next 10 years, if buyers continue to doom spend their credit limits on groceries to feed their families. There is hope though!
Also the market will 100% crash over the next 2-3 years, it literally already is, at least in the several zip codes in nashville i keep a watch on with our MLS. We're down 10% from all time highs when looking at price per square foot in MOST zip codes and volume is in the midst of skyrocketing far earlier and faster than usual. If you think prices are going to stagnate or go up, PLEASE buy a house or shut up. Put your money where your mouth is. I'm betting my entire savings that things fall, by not buying a house or two and growing the savings to deploy in a couple years.
It’s been dark for a long time does not mean that the sun won’t rise and darkness is the new normal. Real estate is cyclical. Everyone knows that the prices today are unsustainable and bubbly. It is unaffordable for the majority of the population, which we have seen before in previous cycles. What happens when a record amount of new homes and apartments are released this year, with no buyers buying? Builders don’t tolerate empty houses, they have been and will continue to cut the prices to find buyers. The existing homes will stubbornly follow suit… eventually.
I think the reason we haven't seen a job loss recession in construction so far is probably because of the huge backlog of housing under construction since Covid. However, the savageness of the issue here is that in causing a recession in this space the imbalance in housing supply in the US may only get worse. The fed let inflation go rampant and is now squeezing people after the inflation has subsided. Completely inept organization.
Ebb and Flow is Seeing a Shortening in the Curve From Pandemic Days While Prices Remain High Constraints in the Current Situation are Starting to Effect Yield up and Down Scalable Pricing in all Variations if Applicable Pressures Persist with Housing Stagflation the Common Denominator in Relief Should Abate the Current Situation with 8to10yrs being the Standard run over the last 80yrs Chart in at 2016 just hitting 8 in 2024 !.
There might be a "housing recession" from the perspective of a transactional middleman, but that doesn't mean there's a "housing recession" in terms of pricing. These observed dynamics are indicating stagnation, and not really a recession. The low rates and unique circumstances of the pandemic may have pulled forward demand and created a spike in pricing, then with the sudden interest rate spike, a double whammy of high prices and high rates has quashed demand. New home owners shouldn't be needing to move, long term owners have equity to leverage so they will cause prices to decline, but anyone that doesn't have to move and/or has less ewuity to leverage and has a low rate will just stay put unless assumability or home swapping is a viable option. So stagnation and so motion decline is in order. New home builders that contain costs and cut interest rate deals might be the best option right now for new buyers entering the market.
2.25% interest on my 750k house I paid 290k for in 2011. Yeah I’m not going anywhere anytime soon. It can crash all it wants. I’ll never be upside down.
Yeah most people who bought in 2011 are comfortably in the same boat. I mean I bought a modest place in 2010 and it's been paid off for a minute, but I'll be the first to admit I wish I had learned this debt free thing years ago.
I believe you're missing the forrest for the trees when it comes to the housing market and you're only looking at it in a vacuum as opposed to what's happening in the broader economy. The inventory glut will happen once the recession happens. Inventory is so low because nobody wants to sell and be stuck with a higher rate. Inflation is predictably roaring back against the wishcasting of analysts and the predicted interest rate relief isn't coming and may even instead give way to another hike if YoY inflation notches back above 4%. Low rate mortgage holders dont want to sell, but they may be forced to.
To say Glen Keman is 'in tune' with the real estate market is a joke. He incorrectly positioned his company for the long term and that fact is reflected in the performance of Redfin's stock price over time. He made a mistake. Just like we all do.
Sales & refis down after epic years of record smashing sales?…yes! Who cares unless you are a realtor or loan broker? Crash in comp prices?…nope. Still going UP!
For a long time I dreamed of a massive crash, but now realize homes will only go up in price. Inflation with corporations buying homes will raise prices to over 1 million nationally
In 2020 and 2021, people were overpaying for houses in the market regardless of their condition. In 2024, people are looking for good deals on houses in good condition and well-located in desirable neighborhoods. These houses will sell quicker than others. It's more about quality these days. The real issue is the shortage of inventory. Once the inventory increases, house prices will soften, but that won't happen until the interest rates reach 4-5%, which will increase the demand pool and cause house prices to rise again. For the market to crash, the unemployment rate would have to spike significantly, which is unlikely at this moment.
I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle, it is unlikely we see an 08' crash where prices went down 70% in Vegas. From my research I'd say a 10-15% national correction while investor concentrated areas see substantial declines. The consumer side I think is on solid ground but this time it'll be distressed homes for rent. In many cities you can rent a 2-bed home for the same price as a 1-bed apartment. Clear evidence that there is a massive oversupply of rental homes which is constraining available homes for purchase.
Also left out is the fact that Millenials are inheriting Boomer houses. They dont need to mortgage those houses. Additionally, they can sell them off as a boon, continuing on with their lives across the country. Auctions are also prevalent.
Sell them off to who? That’s already happening right now and no one is buying. They didn’t work for the money that paid for it, so they’ll drop price to get whatever money they can.
Except the government is incompetent. They didn't want an increase or decrease in 2005-2011, but they got one anyway. The truth is the government is usually the one behind the increase and decrease. They create the problems, and then try to fix them and overcompensate. They're incompetent and dangerous at the same time, and we pay the price.
So basically we're going to keep this economy going for as long as we can until it literally hits the ground and starts combusting in to flames, this will not be a depression this will be a nightmare financially for everyone because right now when the inflation spikes up like a rocket and the dollar detaches itself from normal levels we're going to be just like Zimbabwe or Germany with wheelbarrows of money for bread. I personally feel like we have maybe 4 to 5 years of somewhat economic transactions with money and debt but after 2030 I think that's when everything will falter and hit the skids. I would buy Bitcoin and buy hard assets like gold /silver as a store of value while also actively trading...The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
![[UA] NAVI vs MOUZ | BO5 | IEM Rio 2024](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/CMBYk0cbGoA/mqdefault.jpg)
The problem is INVESTORS. Never in history has there been so many investor activity in the residential sector. We need laws in the federal and/or state levels to limit investors.
I see them on social media bragging about owning 20+, 50+ properties. This is a huge problem. They are over leveraged buying up too much, are in massive debt and expect renters to pay it off for them. This isn’t right.
Imagine the deals if they're forced out of business.
they are selling in FL
@@ptturboe5792 Lmao, which Florida do live in? I wish.
@@fowlerfreak7420 Central Florida. I manage thousands of units/doors.
Blame the FED. The 10 year ways paying 0.55%... you really going to fault an investor looking for more yield than $5,500 per year one 1 million dollars? That's a freaking joke of course investors looked for alternative investments.
Meanwhile here in north New Jersey 100 year old homes that haven't been updated since the 70s sitting on a fifth acre are $1 million. They are selling OVER asking price. It's ridiculous. I make $300k here and I can't reasonably afford a home without breaking the bank. None of these homes are worth the price that people are asking, but somehow there's still people buying for these crazy prices!
Exactly! Flustrating to see No inventory and bidding wars at this interest rate. Rental isn’t cheaper/ worth the money either.
I only make $200K ($100K lower than you) and I just bought a house in NJ. What kind of house are you not able to "afford"?
@@jacsmiPretty much anything in Bergen County. If I go down to Morris County then yes it becomes more affordable, but my family is up north and I work in the city. It also depends on your definition of afford. I have been approved to purchase a $1 million house (750k mortgage), but my monthly payment would be around $6500. Even though I make 300k, I also pay rent on my business, so rent combined between personal living and work is about $8000 per month which makes it difficult to jump from my current $3000 rent to over double that.
You have to know how to buy this month alone I’ve signed 13 contracts. Buy your home from me pay below market
Yup, I’m in the DMV area and it’s insane.. it 100 percent makes more sense to buy land and build a home before buying these 30+ year old homes for 500k STARTING.
People are S T U P I D. The math is not mathing.
It doesn't take long for inventory to shoot up and cause panic selling. Many people are over leveraged and mortgage is last to go. There's a record number of small to medium business closing, it's the bread and butter of America. It's just a matter of time. Yall can focus on all the charts all you want. The taxable America is broke.
Once it turns, it'll really turn. Psychology plays a huge role in economics.. how people "feel" is important. I think a lot of investors are sitting on equity and would like to sell and buy bonds paying 5%.. but selling a rental creates a massive tax bill.. however once prices start to clearly decline.. 2%, 5% 7% you will see the psychology flip.. these investors will think (correctly too) that I might as well sell now and pay the 90K in taxes because the home is going down in value anyway.
@@jonathantaylor6926 When it changes, the corporations will just go more crazy buying up houses. They already have too much.
@@AxisSabian1 All depends on bond yield. If the 10 year paid 6.5% owing rentals would be a horrible investment.
who is overlevered? The people paying 2-4% because they bought before 2019?
The people who are screwed are people who want to take a mortgage out now.
@@forte9910 wrong, many that got the house during pandemic are likely under. Just look what's happening on FL and TX. Absolute blood bath. With property and insurance cost F the mortgage.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
Just waiting long enough for everyone to get the heck out of my home city.
#Bigfacts!!!!
Something that isn’t mentioned here, a possible reason that home prices are not decreasing with interest rate increases could be because of the private market investing in single family homes for premium prices.
The more prices ebb downwards, the more people will slide into negative equity, which will make them sell regardless of the low interest rate they have locked in. Eventually they still all rush for the exits.
Bingo. The math is 43% worse than 2007 peak bubble - it will all come crashing down now that consumer debt is at new all-time highs and corporations are laying off hundreds of thousands of salaried workers per month.
It has never been this way before. That is because there was never a time when wall street investment companies had this much control over the housing markets. When housing competes, home buyers gain the advantage. With so much control over the markets, pricing can be manipulated. That’s what we are seeing but no one wants to talk about it because the investors are getting rich.
Its regional. TX, FL, AZ, ID are all seeing inventories increase, and will soon see prices drop through summer/fall.
The biggest issue is that the low inventory is a stilt that the housing market is balancing on. The other one is low unemployment. the majority of people cant afford a house and the ones who do buy a house are house poor. They are one missed paycheck away from disaster. And there are millions of people in this position. One layoff, one lost job, the house of cards will come crashing down.
State by state in FL we has a massive supply coming. The big reason a lot of people are not selling is because they purchased the home at an overprice rate and trying to get more. unfortunately, they purchased on the very top.
I see Florida had a remarkable 29% yoy inventory increase. That's hella impressive. We are in Texas and inventory is up 14% yoy and continuing to climb quickly, but Florida is in a league of their own.
@@1969bones69 400k for a sh1t box I can't even. It looks like the Tampa market has topped out at least after the median sales price has literally doubled since 2019. Here's hoping the downward descent is even faster.
Prices are high because only expensive homes are selling
I saw a video recently showing that
Crazy times. I want to sell and move so bad, but inventory and prices (I don't care all that much about interest though I intend to get a mortgage) have made it completely prohibitive. The kicker? I own my current home outright. It's not just people with low mortgage rates that are stuck, people who own also are. I suspect if the market conditions improve where people are free to move about again, there will be a lot more pent up sellers than people think to counterbalance any pent up buying demand. I'll be one of them.
Inventory is alrrady skyrocketing in Florida. House prices peaked in 2005/2006 and didn't crash until after 2008. Finally bottoming in 2012. This cycle will be similar.
Very similar, but even worse. I tell people every day, the math is never wrong and it'll always catch up after the human emotion aspect of the economy falters out.
Your analysis may be true for Florida but important to know the causes. Increasing HOA, property taxes and extremely high house insurance is having an outsized effect there. Pretty soon only the very rich will be able to live there but that’s not the case everywhere.
@@steveguillory7568 people said the same thing in 2007. Inventory is already piling up in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and more. The prices will come down as Inventory increases. It's not going to be 'only rich people'.. this is what sales people say to get you to buy..
@@steveguillory7568 people said the same thing in 2007. Inventory is already piling up in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and more. The prices will come down as Inventory increases. It's not going to be 'only rich people'.. this is what sales people say to get you to buy.
@@steveguillory7568 Lots of people said the same thing in 2007. Inventory is piling up in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and more. The prices will come down as Inventory increases. It's not going to be 'only rich people'.. this is what sales people say to get you to buy..
Rates slow down the buyers... Supply drives down the prices.. until we get more supply in the housing market.. we are screwed
All of these imbalances is due to the FED manipulating the market.
Had they not pushed rates low for such a long time then there would not be the conditions we are seeing now.
The problem is when politicians made the FED have a dual mandate. So they now determine rates based on employment.
The money market needs to be free without employment being a consideration. Politicians need to create employment through policy not telling the FED to give out money at cocaine party rates.
I’ve said it 100 times in the past 5 years. I will not pay a million dollars for a modest house in the same shape and age of the one I grew up in. Good news: I was right, I won’t because they’re worth far more than that and I can’t afford it
In southern CA we're still see all cash buyers. Mostly foreigners from China.
However, we've also seen an influx of city dwellers moving to the suburbs, further inflating prices.
There is also a monetary illusion, if prices are stagnant they are falling when inflation adjusted, it rising only slowly they may well also be falling when inflation adjusted. Im this is where its all, stagnant or slight increase/decrease
This MHFIN guy has flipped. Just look at his older videos. His videos used to be all about how there will be a 30% drop or a 50% crash and how the market will collapse. Now he seems to have given up.
At least MHFIN isn't perpetuating the crash theory like some other folks who are still in complete denial
The crash idea isnt gone by any stretch, just wait for unemployment to start moving higher and you’ll quickly see inventory skyrocket and prices drop! Should it have happened by now? YES! But we have a huge amount of liquidity still working. Its way though the economy, once it dries up, watch the free fall!
I’ll wait till after the election we might start seeing movement down
He probably bought a house 😂
He crafts his message around the views he gets and that’s 99% of UA-cam content. It’s all BS
I manage associations. The big institutional owners are starting to sell. Like 1 out of 50, then 2 out of 49, etc.
Private equity investors would be selling soon since usually around year 3 is when they start to wind down. Hedge funds as well so to not be left with holding the bag... Just curious what is percentage.
And Why has Redfin stock collapsed? Not due to the housing market, maybe not run well?
Inventory shortages is absolute nonsense
So basically we're going to keep this economy going for as long as we can until it literally hits the ground and starts combusting in to flames, this will not be a depression this will be a nightmare financially for everyone because right now when the inflation spikes up like a rocket and the dollar detaches itself from normal levels we're going to be just like Zimbabwe or Germany with wheelbarrows of money for bread. I personally feel like we have maybe 4 to 5 years of somewhat economic transactions with money and debt but after 2030 I think that's when everything will falter and hit the skids. I would buy Bitcoin and buy hard assets like gold /silver as a store of value while also actively trading...The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!
The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….
This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.
It really helped trading with Francine Duguay analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..
I read about her too on the website. That is how I get connected to her. Thanks for putting this down here
Does this mean the people that bought homes with the 3% interest will see home price value hold or come down? Curious to know anyone's perspective on this
5:20 to 5:38
this man literally just described what an overpriced asset it. The sellers think something is worth one thing but all the buyers think it's worth much less. Eventually one has to budge, but usually the buyer cant just cough up an extra 15% on the most expensive purchase they'll ever make. Prices either must fall or you dont sell, its really that simple.
The FOMO wave works the exact same up as down. up with greed and down with fear.
There are still people moving and paying cash, but the industry as a whole regarding volume, needs people that can qualify for a mortgage. The majority don’t qualify for what they want and realize it’s still cheaper to continue renting.
2008 was not the bottom of the market , and then he says that inventory is low but there is a sea of red of homes for sale
Let's not forget, for the 2008 housing crash, it didn't happen immediately - it took from early 2007 to mid-2008 for that demand destruction, unemployment uptick and ultimate supply surge to kill the market and cause a 40-50% crash in most areas. To the point where in late 2007, dozens of national news agencies were declaring that a "soft landing has been achieved and there will be no recession." The math is 43% worse today than it was in 2007. Unemployment is about to rocket past 10% and home values will come down 60-65%.
Didn't he say this a year ago?
It’s really hard to sell, I bought in 2020 right at the start of Covid. My home has nearly doubled and my rate is 2.75%. So even if home price dropped back to where it was (which would mean homes would have to drop 50%) I would still be up because of the equity I have now. Add in the savings from mt low interest rate over time (vs buying another home now) and that means I would still break even if the home dropped 75% and stayed there. Don’t see how anyone would sell if they bought before 2023 unless they are paying all cash for their next home which is close to impossible for most people.
When is the Commerical Market Crash, what
effects will that have on Residential Properties
SHOCKED EVERYONE!...... Who?
My wife and I bought our first home at 9.9% in the late 70s. Every month no matter what, we paid some amount on the principle. It helps.
There is only one problem …. Greed. Just reduce home prices and buyers will return
Unless new construction explodes
@@truthoverall3893only takes one or two sales to reprice an entire neighborhood. Better to wait than lose 200k.
Grees is good ( money never sleeps )
Housing prices will collapse. This content is misleading at best.
How so? The challenge is for a collapse like in 2008 we have people over leveraged and variable rate mortgages changing to higher rates which caused people to not be able to pay. A large chunk of houses during the 2019-2022 bubble took advantage of historical low rates and tons of people refinanced to these rates as well. There is no catalyst to force people to sell, so there is no real potential for a crash. There may be some room for modest decreases, but nothing near 2008. What we should be looking for is a market correction would would push the median home price to ~$370k vs today's $417k. New homes will be the place to look for lower prices is the foreseeable future, but event the builders are slowing builds with permits (down 4% YTD) and build starts (down 14%) down for the year. As the RedFin CEO said, the issue is we have too much of a gap between the Sellers list price and the buyer home value price to close deals. Its going to be a rough year or two for the industry as a whole.
It is a supply and demand story now. No supply and demand that over bids and drives prices up. With millions sitting on 3% mortgages and much higher prices to upgrade just a little why would you move?
it came to the point that saving money to built a home is much cheaper than pay a mortgage that with interest alone will cost 3 times or more in the long term
We are going to be in this market until rates hit low 5%
New home prices are falling faster than the last crash
Recession means sales down , not prices down.
However, if sales stay down for a longer duration, more inventory will be added. Indicative a downward price direction.
The number of mortgage applications is down around the lows of '95. It's around 1/4 what it was at the recent peak. For anyone earning a commission on sales, it's a recession, even if prices are high.
@@RationalEgoism yes agree totally. for buyers won't feel any effect of it.
@@idnotapplicable it won’t as sellers will not be motivated , issue is forced or motivated sellers , who wants to sell their home these days . Nobody .
@@marksweeney5237 Realist
Today I got in a multiple offer situation with a buyer: a $1.3M house had five cash offers, most over ask. As an agent it is an ethical question: do I tell the buyer to go all in and get the house, or do I tell them to make sure to get an inspection and to not bid against themselves? I told them the latter, and unfortunately they did not get the house. They are disappointed, but as a buyer in this market outbidding four others, would that buyer not have Buyer's Remorse, knowing they probably spent too much? Good inventory is just so low right now. Hopefully good inventory will uptick ad be priced at market, rather than too high.
As a real estate agent, we should supply the buyers with information, then it is their decision to make.
Not in Columbus Ohio. Things are still very hot. It’s the damn investors and speculators screwing things up. It should be illegal for corporations to buy single family homes.
Historical data is not the same across the country. People just need to do research to find out.
@ the 5:00 mark, Glenn sounds like a typical realtor. Dude, prices are WAY TOO high. The only cure is a real recession that pushed unemployment above 5.5% for two years. Then and only then will prices return to the mean.
The coming recession will be the trigger. You can't stay put if you lose your job....
One thing this video isn't taking into consideration is the massive amount of homes private equity/Blackrock purchased to take advantage of huge rent price increases. Let's see what happens when the economy tanks, (it will),and all these private equity firms dumps their inventory and flood the market with homes. And they won't take a hit because it was all free money they bought these houses up with in the first place. And, the amount of profit they made in rents is astronomical! The market is much easier manipulated with social media now. People will believe anything. Especially when it's something they want to agree with aka confirmation bias. Here's an example, Bitcoin will be worth a million in 2030. There's no way. All that info is just priming and foreshadowing but people have a fomo so it works every time. There's a sucker born every minute. Cash is king. Save yours and when shtf...you will be ready.
The current seemingly boom economy data driven by MASSIVE debt and OVERPRICED asset caused by government overspending. Such a fragile bubble.
Affordability is the problem. Prices must drop
He leaves out is that the # of builders is waaaay less than when it was booming.
Who is perceiving this economy as “thriving?”
CEOs and Wall Street is doing great, that is the only people who really matter in this twisted “economy”
Democrats
These sellers and agents asking $900k for a piece of crap built in 1960s is absolutely ridiculous, on top of that, the interest rates for 30 year fixed is around 7%.
Most Homes need huge renovations because of the outdated and deteriorating interior pieces, plus, the neighborhoods themselves are run down, especially in Blue Democrat controlled Cities.
Why would someone put in $900k and pay 7% interest for 30 years for absolute garbage properties?
These home sellers and agents are in for a huge wake up call.
Was with you until you decided to throw out the delusion that "Blue Democrat controlled cities" are the only ones with rundown neighborhoods. The midwest and south are inundated with trash neighborhoods. It's a matter of socioeconomic conditions, not political lines.
Only unemployment is going to fix this asset bubble. Give it time.
New construction? Investors selling?
In northeast I am seeing a dripping of prices in housing.
Waiting until 2025 to buy possibly.
Also looking into the tax lien market
The next generation has a much harder path towards home ownership... but it can be done. Homes might be a bad investment for the next 10 years, if buyers continue to doom spend their credit limits on groceries to feed their families. There is hope though!
Also the market will 100% crash over the next 2-3 years, it literally already is, at least in the several zip codes in nashville i keep a watch on with our MLS. We're down 10% from all time highs when looking at price per square foot in MOST zip codes and volume is in the midst of skyrocketing far earlier and faster than usual. If you think prices are going to stagnate or go up, PLEASE buy a house or shut up. Put your money where your mouth is.
I'm betting my entire savings that things fall, by not buying a house or two and growing the savings to deploy in a couple years.
Amazingly homes in the upper price tier is amazing 500k to 1.5k especially east coast!
Why is '0' on the Y axis at the top?
Our host states the following: "...he sees the details of the market in extreme detail..."
It’s been dark for a long time does not mean that the sun won’t rise and darkness is the new normal.
Real estate is cyclical. Everyone knows that the prices today are unsustainable and bubbly. It is unaffordable for the majority of the population, which we have seen before in previous cycles.
What happens when a record amount of new homes and apartments are released this year, with no buyers buying? Builders don’t tolerate empty houses, they have been and will continue to cut the prices to find buyers. The existing homes will stubbornly follow suit… eventually.
The inventory was high in 2008 bec fed funds rate went from 5.25% in sep 2007 to 2% in 2008…so ppl cld sell move therefore increasing inventory.
I think the reason we haven't seen a job loss recession in construction so far is probably because of the huge backlog of housing under construction since Covid. However, the savageness of the issue here is that in causing a recession in this space the imbalance in housing supply in the US may only get worse. The fed let inflation go rampant and is now squeezing people after the inflation has subsided. Completely inept organization.
Ebb and Flow is Seeing a Shortening in the Curve From Pandemic Days While Prices Remain High Constraints in the Current Situation are Starting to Effect Yield up and Down Scalable Pricing in all Variations if Applicable Pressures Persist with Housing Stagflation the Common Denominator in Relief Should Abate the Current Situation with 8to10yrs being the Standard run over the last 80yrs Chart in at 2016 just hitting 8 in 2024 !.
There might be a "housing recession" from the perspective of a transactional middleman, but that doesn't mean there's a "housing recession" in terms of pricing. These observed dynamics are indicating stagnation, and not really a recession. The low rates and unique circumstances of the pandemic may have pulled forward demand and created a spike in pricing, then with the sudden interest rate spike, a double whammy of high prices and high rates has quashed demand. New home owners shouldn't be needing to move, long term owners have equity to leverage so they will cause prices to decline, but anyone that doesn't have to move and/or has less ewuity to leverage and has a low rate will just stay put unless assumability or home swapping is a viable option. So stagnation and so motion decline is in order. New home builders that contain costs and cut interest rate deals might be the best option right now for new buyers entering the market.
Come on baby... I hope it's horrible...
2.25% interest on my 750k house I paid 290k for in 2011. Yeah I’m not going anywhere anytime soon. It can crash all it wants. I’ll never be upside down.
Slow clap
So strange..... The moment anyone loses a job they will leave their 2% mortgage faster than a crackhead moves after hearing free drugs. @@jmags2586
Yeah most people who bought in 2011 are comfortably in the same boat. I mean I bought a modest place in 2010 and it's been paid off for a minute, but I'll be the first to admit I wish I had learned this debt free thing years ago.
13 out of the top 100 metros are seeing price increases. That's it, 13.
The majority of the country is seeing flat values or declining values.
@@derek4412 Yep, the cesspool northeast is doing great, on paper.
Fed should raise interest rate higher to correct real estate price and keep the investors out of the competition.
Big Investors buy in all cash, so interest rate doesn't matter to them
I believe you're missing the forrest for the trees when it comes to the housing market and you're only looking at it in a vacuum as opposed to what's happening in the broader economy. The inventory glut will happen once the recession happens. Inventory is so low because nobody wants to sell and be stuck with a higher rate. Inflation is predictably roaring back against the wishcasting of analysts and the predicted interest rate relief isn't coming and may even instead give way to another hike if YoY inflation notches back above 4%. Low rate mortgage holders dont want to sell, but they may be forced to.
To say Glen Keman is 'in tune' with the real estate market is a joke. He incorrectly positioned his company for the long term and that fact is reflected in the performance of Redfin's stock price over time. He made a mistake. Just like we all do.
Fema camps soon
I'm sorry , who's is saying the economy is thriving???
“In tangent…” - you mean in tandem.
LET THEM EAT CEREAL.
Where the fuck is recession? I don't see any at all.
if i were a betting man i would short the housing market & apartments market in Florida,Texas,NewYork,California & Georgia!!!!!
So RE can't appreciate 20% YoY forever? Who would have guessed?
Sales & refis down after epic years of record smashing sales?…yes! Who cares unless you are a realtor or loan broker? Crash in comp prices?…nope. Still going UP!
Rental prices will continue Up, Up & UP.
For a long time I dreamed of a massive crash, but now realize homes will only go up in price. Inflation with corporations buying homes will raise prices to over 1 million nationally
In 2020 and 2021, people were overpaying for houses in the market regardless of their condition. In 2024, people are looking for good deals on houses in good condition and well-located in desirable neighborhoods. These houses will sell quicker than others. It's more about quality these days. The real issue is the shortage of inventory. Once the inventory increases, house prices will soften, but that won't happen until the interest rates reach 4-5%, which will increase the demand pool and cause house prices to rise again. For the market to crash, the unemployment rate would have to spike significantly, which is unlikely at this moment.
I wish the worst for Redfin.
Y'all have been predicting collapses for years, to no avail.
So would a crash happen overnight in your mind?
@@nitroneonicman within a decade, but look at the title. it is always 'this' year, every year
@@sleddy01 The title doesn't say anything about this year, that's why I'm confused.
@@nitroneonicman 2024 DEPRESSION?
Is glen sponsored by Tesla?
I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle, it is unlikely we see an 08' crash where prices went down 70% in Vegas. From my research I'd say a 10-15% national correction while investor concentrated areas see substantial declines. The consumer side I think is on solid ground but this time it'll be distressed homes for rent. In many cities you can rent a 2-bed home for the same price as a 1-bed apartment. Clear evidence that there is a massive oversupply of rental homes which is constraining available homes for purchase.
Also left out is the fact that Millenials are inheriting Boomer houses. They dont need to mortgage those houses. Additionally, they can sell them off as a boon, continuing on with their lives across the country. Auctions are also prevalent.
Sell them off to who? That’s already happening right now and no one is buying. They didn’t work for the money that paid for it, so they’ll drop price to get whatever money they can.
an folks that's bidenomics
Salaries are up and jobs are holding. Until the job losses start and you get forced selling prices won’t drop.
The correct grammar is as follows: It is he (not him).
The government doesn't want prices to increase or decrease. So that's how it'll be.
Except the government is incompetent. They didn't want an increase or decrease in 2005-2011, but they got one anyway. The truth is the government is usually the one behind the increase and decrease. They create the problems, and then try to fix them and overcompensate. They're incompetent and dangerous at the same time, and we pay the price.
South Florida prices will not go down. Everyone wants to live here including Redfin. Hypocrite. People are still buying over asking prices.
Yawn! (Unsub).
bye!
This guy is sooo creepy looking.....polish the helmet dude!
So basically we're going to keep this economy going for as long as we can until it literally hits the ground and starts combusting in to flames, this will not be a depression this will be a nightmare financially for everyone because right now when the inflation spikes up like a rocket and the dollar detaches itself from normal levels we're going to be just like Zimbabwe or Germany with wheelbarrows of money for bread. I personally feel like we have maybe 4 to 5 years of somewhat economic transactions with money and debt but after 2030 I think that's when everything will falter and hit the skids. I would buy Bitcoin and buy hard assets like gold /silver as a store of value while also actively trading...The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!
The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….
This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I read about her too on the website. That is how I get connected to her. Thanks for putting this down here