An invasion of Taiwan wld be disastrous for Taiwan, US and especially china- it will be its demise as an empire (it wld be divided into different nation states), it wld be the end of CCP and xijinping. That is why Xi has a hoarse voice and fluffy face constantly repeating/threatening to invade Taiwan. Nobody believes it anymore- esp that China has already collapsed economically, demographically, politically. Thus, the US and allies will just deter this invasion as long as possible - and as China collapses further it will be more remote.
The problem with that game is your assuming the U.S. won't see the build up prior to the attack and hasn't started already doing things to mitigate the effects. I guess what I'm saying is that a sneak attack, the U.S.and their partners will see it coming.
This is true, but it is also best to prepare based on the other side only starting it if they can get some kind of advantage like that. Whoever takes the initiative will have the advantage and so you have to plan based on weathering the initial storm and being caught flat footed.
@@robert48044 But the US did do several things that has had very large impacts. 1. It surged the supply of MANPADs and ATGMs that were critical in stopping the initial invasion. 2. It ensured that there was ZERO question of Russia being the aggressor here. 3. #2 led to a dramatic strengthening of NATO, both expanding it and seeing defense spending increases in all NATO countries. No matter what happens now, Russia has been dealt a strategic loss. It has lost influence, business and prestige. It is unlikely the EU will return to energy deals with Russia for years to come. It's fantasy of re-occupying the Baltic states without a devastating conflict has been shattered. Even the idea that Belarus would re-unite with Russia seems to have been dashed as well. And at this point they are the much more junior partner now in the China/Russia relationship, with some (wild) speculation that China may decide now is a good time to secure energy resources to their north by military means. (Ok, that latter is just fantasy, but prior to the conflict it was not even imaginable in the wildest of fantasies).
Very wrong. 1. BEFORE the US gets involved - the Chinese fleet MUST get to Taiwan. To do that, it MUST survive the 2000+ anti-ship missiles that Taiwan has. If we just take the 300 Harpoon missiles Taiwan has -- China will not get them all. If just 30 missiles hit Chinese ships -- that will be huge. Taiwan will aim for the troop ships. On top of that, Taiwan's HF-2 and HF-3 missiles will take out dozens more. 50+ ships sunk will impact China's plans. 2. Taiwan's HF-2e long-range missiles will hit ships and facilities in Chinese ports. Shanghai is in range. Beijing is within range. 3-Gorges dam is within range. 3. China's military is corrupt & incompetent. Do you really think they could execute an amphibious invasion?? The most complex and difficutl military operation?? I don't. 4. Before Americans are even involved, Taiwan's missiles will decimate China's fleet. Could I be wrong?? Sure -- I have yet to see any wargame or invasion discussion talk about this. They all talk as if Taiwan is merely a punching bag, and cannot fight back.
We saw the Russians in Ukraine unable to cross the Dnipro river which was only a few hundred yards wide. But once crossed, the Russian units were destroyed with artillery. The taiwanese already have all those fire positions pre planned. The Russians sent miles long supply trains into Ukraine, how do the Chinese do that across the water. It is also unclear if the Chinese missiles and rockets are operational, how much or solid fuel was stolen and used for hot-pots and how many rockets were filled with water.
@@fvo911 Most of their artillery howitzer and its ammunitions are locally produced in Taiwan like the T-63 or T-65, also there are now 5 US bases in the Philippines which is the closest country that can supply Taiwan.
Said Chamberlin in regards to Germany/Poland, various analysts and politicians regarding Russia/Ukraine, Stalin regarding Germany attack Russia, others regarding Japan/Pearl Harbor, etc etc. on and on. Better to prepare for something that will never happen than to have it happen. With any luck that preparation will deter it so strongly that it never does happen.
Most refer to the CSIS wargame on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. That war game is incompetent, IMO. Its conclusion that the US would lose 4 subs is nonsense. China cannot even find our subs, and it does not have the ships and weapons needed to kill subs. They don't train in anti-nuclear-sub warfare. For this, I dismiss the CSIS war game.
What frightens me the most is that once the US government speaks of an imminent war somewhere it does happen… seems like the global policeman is challenged here and there.
What happens is that once the US government speaks of an imminent war, usually the outcome is fairly bad for the side not allied with the US. Win or lose, the place is a smoking crater.
Not surprising the US would discuss threats. All its wars have been defensive, defending its allies or itself. Even the 2003 invasion was a phase of a longer war originally started by Saddam.
I wonder how long it will be before we hear talk of underwater drone swarms/loitering munitions?
Taiwan/First Island Chain is the new Fulda Gap. The maritime chokepoints are the new middle east (and the middle east is also the new middle east).
An invasion of Taiwan wld be disastrous for Taiwan, US and especially china- it will be its demise as an empire (it wld be divided into different nation states), it wld be the end of CCP and xijinping. That is why Xi has a hoarse voice and fluffy face constantly repeating/threatening to invade Taiwan. Nobody believes it anymore- esp that China has already collapsed economically, demographically, politically. Thus, the US and allies will just deter this invasion as long as possible - and as China collapses further it will be more remote.
The problem with that game is your assuming the U.S. won't see the build up prior to the attack and hasn't started already doing things to mitigate the effects. I guess what I'm saying is that a sneak attack, the U.S.and their partners will see it coming.
This is true, but it is also best to prepare based on the other side only starting it if they can get some kind of advantage like that. Whoever takes the initiative will have the advantage and so you have to plan based on weathering the initial storm and being caught flat footed.
The US saw Russia going into Ukraine also and it still happened
@@robert48044 But the US did do several things that has had very large impacts. 1. It surged the supply of MANPADs and ATGMs that were critical in stopping the initial invasion. 2. It ensured that there was ZERO question of Russia being the aggressor here. 3. #2 led to a dramatic strengthening of NATO, both expanding it and seeing defense spending increases in all NATO countries.
No matter what happens now, Russia has been dealt a strategic loss. It has lost influence, business and prestige. It is unlikely the EU will return to energy deals with Russia for years to come. It's fantasy of re-occupying the Baltic states without a devastating conflict has been shattered. Even the idea that Belarus would re-unite with Russia seems to have been dashed as well. And at this point they are the much more junior partner now in the China/Russia relationship, with some (wild) speculation that China may decide now is a good time to secure energy resources to their north by military means. (Ok, that latter is just fantasy, but prior to the conflict it was not even imaginable in the wildest of fantasies).
America is about to field a new long range anti ship system which can be fired from land as well
Very wrong.
1. BEFORE the US gets involved - the Chinese fleet MUST get to Taiwan.
To do that, it MUST survive the 2000+ anti-ship missiles that Taiwan has.
If we just take the 300 Harpoon missiles Taiwan has -- China will not get them all.
If just 30 missiles hit Chinese ships -- that will be huge.
Taiwan will aim for the troop ships.
On top of that, Taiwan's HF-2 and HF-3 missiles will take out dozens more.
50+ ships sunk will impact China's plans.
2. Taiwan's HF-2e long-range missiles will hit ships and facilities in Chinese ports.
Shanghai is in range. Beijing is within range. 3-Gorges dam is within range.
3. China's military is corrupt & incompetent. Do you really think they could execute an amphibious invasion?? The most complex and difficutl military operation?? I don't.
4. Before Americans are even involved, Taiwan's missiles will decimate China's fleet.
Could I be wrong??
Sure -- I have yet to see any wargame or invasion discussion talk about this.
They all talk as if Taiwan is merely a punching bag, and cannot fight back.
And since those war games more congenial relations with Philipines the US have provided ability to forward deploy and disperse planes and more.
We saw the Russians in Ukraine unable to cross the Dnipro river which was only a few hundred yards wide. But once crossed, the Russian units were destroyed with artillery. The taiwanese already have all those fire positions pre planned. The Russians sent miles long supply trains into Ukraine, how do the Chinese do that across the water. It is also unclear if the Chinese missiles and rockets are operational, how much or solid fuel was stolen and used for hot-pots and how many rockets were filled with water.
Hey those hotpots were good and that fuel burned clean so no nasty odor on the food
@@user-pl4pz2xn2c Taiwan may not have enough artillery shells nor they have land borders with the NATO countries to supply them with.
@@fvo911 logistic.
@@user-pl4pz2xn2c yes only ignorance and uneducated to believe that
a quick google show rocket fuel is highly toxic
@@fvo911 Most of their artillery howitzer and its ammunitions are locally produced in Taiwan like the T-63 or T-65, also there are now 5 US bases in the Philippines which is the closest country that can supply Taiwan.
There won’t be an attack
Such Delusions would have us completely unprepared when the attack comes. 🤡
Said Chamberlin in regards to Germany/Poland, various analysts and politicians regarding Russia/Ukraine, Stalin regarding Germany attack Russia, others regarding Japan/Pearl Harbor, etc etc. on and on.
Better to prepare for something that will never happen than to have it happen. With any luck that preparation will deter it so strongly that it never does happen.
👍
Most refer to the CSIS wargame on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
That war game is incompetent, IMO.
Its conclusion that the US would lose 4 subs is nonsense.
China cannot even find our subs, and it does not have the ships and weapons needed to kill subs.
They don't train in anti-nuclear-sub warfare.
For this, I dismiss the CSIS war game.
Fake
Truth
What frightens me the most is that once the US government speaks of an imminent war somewhere it does happen… seems like the global policeman is challenged here and there.
What happens is that once the US government speaks of an imminent war, usually the outcome is fairly bad for the side not allied with the US. Win or lose, the place is a smoking crater.
Not surprising the US would discuss threats. All its wars have been defensive, defending its allies or itself. Even the 2003 invasion was a phase of a longer war originally started by Saddam.