We've already had the first film on this list fall - Inarritu's JUDY was just officially slated for 2026. It's still 2024 and I'm already taking Ls here.
Your video last year was super helpful, and I’m glad you did a repeat this year! It gives a good structure for what films I should prioritize this year and which I should still see even if they aren’t likely to be ATL heavy-hitters.
Thanks for this! One advice for future videos: Bold text or an arrow on the film you're currently talking about. I wasn't paying full attention and had to rewind the video to understand which film on the list you we're talking about a few times.
2:58 I do not know why y'all keep predicting Christmas releases to win Best Picture. That corridor release is fucking cursed when it comes to winning any Oscar, let alone BP. Respectfully of course.
I've read Hamnet which is PHENOMENAL and Chloe Zhao is the perfect filmmaker to adapt it. It's lyrical and poetic and dreamy, right up her alley. Thanks for doing this! So much to look forward to!
One thing that I’m gonna take note of in predictions from now on is this: never predict a film to win from a previous director who won BP. If you are it’s a place holder as most BP winners are either from rising directors or established directors who have not had their due yet. For this, that’s why I agree on Marty Supreme, but also After The Hunt especially if Julia, Ayo & the script win based off reports
Take that even further! Basically never predict someone to win who has even been nominated before. Outside of Oppenheimer and Birdman, 13/15 of the most recent Best Picture winners have been from filmmakers for whom it is their first Best Picture nomination. And this year will almost certainly be the same with The Brutalist, Anora, and Emilia Perez seeming to be the ones to watch for the win (all from first time nominees). Oppenheimer type wins are rare. Most of the time, the winner will be someone who is getting their first nomination.
@ Also, the last BP win from a Director who already won BP was Million Dollar Baby in what was a crazy year with ‘front runners’ left & right. Also, when do you think you’ll give an update on predictions, especially films like Judy are confirmed to delayed & others like PTA’s are rumored. Maybe March/April, post Sundance, Cannes lineup & cinemacon reactions? Loving your guys vids! Keep it up! 👍
I’m going to love hearing all of the different Oscar UA-cam channels possibly bring up Tyler, The Creator because of Marty Supreme, never thought that would happen
I’ve read the After a the Hunt script and I have a hard time seeing it being that strong. It will be a vehicle for Julia Roberts for sure but as a whole it just felt like a version of Tár that is missing the specificity and deep research into the world it’s set in that Tár had. Ayo’s character also came off as super one note to me, but it’s extremely baity material so she still has a good shot at a nom, altho I struggle to see her winning.
Kudos for putting this together. When doing super early predictions I have noticed that there are two types of years. There are years like 2023 or 2019 where we are aware of the big chunk of the major players from the beginning. Or there is 2022 or this past year where so many films absolutely crash and burn with The Son, Bardo, Empire of Light, Blitz, Joker: Folie a Deux and films come completely out of nowhere with Everything Everywhere All At Once, Top Gun: Maverick, The Brutalist, The Substance, Emilia Perez.. We'll see what happens this year. But goddammit if there will be a Best Picture nominee that wasn't among these 140 listed movies. Some thoughts on the rankings: I understand your reasoning behind Baktan Cross, but I cannot doubt that. I think having Leo headlining the film can have slight help with the box office. If Judy doesn't come out you gotta have a Warner Bros list in the 10 though. For some reason I have a feeling that one of Avatar and Wicked sequels won't make it, maybe it's the Academy's reluctance to reward follow ups. I think Avatar will drop off if the reviews are similar to The Way of Water because I really felt that got nominated by the skin of it's teeth. I think it needs stronger reviews, but I could see Cameron pulling it off. The Roses sounds so fascinating, but Jay Roach just hasn't impressed me with his films, hopefully having McNamara on board helps. My theory has been that The History of Sound will be Searchlight's push. I've been eyeing Ella McCay as a hopeful, but you kinda brought me back down to earth. If Marty Supreme and Dune 3 get nominated, Timmy will have an unbelievable amount of Best Picture nominees under his belt at like 30 lol. Crazy. Sentimental Value feels like a prime This Had Oscar Buzz title to me for some reason. Hopefully I'm wrong because I love The Worst Person in the World. Have this feeling No Other Choice won't come out this year (it's still shooting)
DiCaprio has never been the huge draw he is seen to haven been, Killers of the Flower Moon crashed and burned at the box office. I'm hopeful on Batkan Cross but I won't be surprised if Zaslav and WBD sort of bury it by not giving enough for the promotion of the film. I'm done doubting James Cameron, I think Avatar 3 will be better than Way of Water. Wicked 2 is less likely but far to early to rule out.
my suoer ridiculously earliest Oscars 2026 predictions Picture The Life Of Chuck (Neon) Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.) Frankenstein (Netflix) Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) Superman (Warner Bros.) The Immortal Man [aka Peaky Blinders film] (Netflix) Hamnet (Focus Features) Marty Supreme (A24) Warfare (A24) The Bride (??) The Lost Bus (Apple Studios) Caught Stealing (Sony Pictures) 28 Years Later (Sony Pictures) The Phoenician Scheme (??) Magic Farm (Mubi) Ricky (??) F1 (Warner Bros.) Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix) The Smashing Machine (A24) The Way Of The Wind (??) Hand Of Dante (??) Plainclothes (??) Kiss Of The Spider Woman (??) The Running Man (Paramount Pictures) The Thing With Feathers (??) How To Train Your Dragon (Universal Pictures) The Actor (Neon) Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures) Eleanor The Great (??) Omaha (??) Materialists (A24) Lilo & Stitch (Disney) Captain America: Brave New World (Disney-Marvel Studios) Thunderbolts (Disney-Marvel Studios)
I would have The Memory Police quite a bit higher. In my opinion Kaufman is the greatest screenwriter full stop and the source material is very interesting.
Re: Sorry Baby: Jenkins and Romanski also saw something in Dirt Roads Taste of Salt which had a vague description as well and also went to Sundance. So unless this movie had an actor who’s on the come up for their first Oscar nomination like Paul Mescal was at the time (which I don’t think it does), then I don’t see much of a path for this movie after Sundance. Unless it’s one of the best of the fest.
only VFX but it's a crowded year for VFX heavy blockbusters, Avatar 3 will win it anyway. Jurassic World Rebirth, F1 Superman, Fantastic Four First Steps, Cap 4, Thunderbolts, Mission Impossible 8, Running Man, 28 years later, Wicked Pt 2, How to Train Your dragon, Preadtor Badlands and probably some light vfx films but are so good they are in contention
I think Fantastic four could also be contender like either The Batman or Dr Strange especially in Visual effects, makeup, score, sound, production design bc of the world building
You're excused on the pronounciation ;) It's kinda like "Yo-ah-keem Trier". Also, FYI Sentimental Value will get a new title when it comes out so we have to be aware of that. Good points about Baktan Cross. I've got it very high on my list though. Agree on Chloe Zhao, Eternals doesn't count haha. And in the same vein as her, the next movie after a Best Picture-win doesn't have to be a masterpiece (I remember some people thinking Eternals for Best Picture-nom before its release), we have Bong. You're right on the money on Mickey 17. I don't think it's gonna be as bad as Eternals, but how they were about to burry that film, doesn't bode well. I think it's just gonna be completely fine, but nowhere near the Academy at all. I didn't know about I Love Boosters, and that one is definitely something that could ride the Demi Moore-train as you say. also don't think Bill Condon can bring back the magic. Very cool that you rank them and explain how they could fare in the awards race and how they could not. If I were to utter criticism, I would've loved for pictures to continue after the top 10. Understandable that most of these have little promo material/behind the scenes pictures right now, but maybe a marker/arrow that would go down for each title, so it's easier to follow? Anyway, just like last year, you're always giving out so many new titles for us to consider that we might not know about or think too much about. Merry Christmas and happy new year!
Thanks for doing this. I was curious about films coming out next year. I'm excited about The History of Sound, although I hate the thought of straight actors getting nominated for queer roles when Andrew Scott couldn't get nominated for All of Us Strangers.
OMG, Kendrick Lamaar is in the "top 2 musicians of all time" for you? I'm shocked. I understand you are very young, but such striking recency bias? Top 2 of all time??🤦😳 What about Pink Floyd, The Beatles, The Doors, King Crimson, George Michael, Bach, Mozart, Vivaldi, Chopin etc?...
That list bit is simply not true. Jessie Buckley has literally performed in musicals on the West End and has sung in multiple movies. Christian Bale has also sung in movies before. Penelope Cruz has done musicals before. Jake Gyllenhaal has been on Broadway
In The Roses Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Coleman are playing the married couple...? Really? Olivia Coleman? She could play Benedict's mother. Are you sure?
We've already had the first film on this list fall - Inarritu's JUDY was just officially slated for 2026. It's still 2024 and I'm already taking Ls here.
You’re an absolute machine
and you are jonathan
THE ROSES sounds soooo good, like WHOAH. Damn! I need to see this NOW. I will be seated in that theater, I will be too seated.
Thanks so much for more great film coverage. It’s really appreciated.
Amazing work, bro!
Your video last year was super helpful, and I’m glad you did a repeat this year! It gives a good structure for what films I should prioritize this year and which I should still see even if they aren’t likely to be ATL heavy-hitters.
Thanks for the amazing breakdown
Thanks for this! One advice for future videos: Bold text or an arrow on the film you're currently talking about. I wasn't paying full attention and had to rewind the video to understand which film on the list you we're talking about a few times.
don't sleep on The Legend of Ochi !
Thankyou for this video.... Its like a Christmas gift for movie lovers🎄🎁❤
This is incredible
2:58 I do not know why y'all keep predicting Christmas releases to win Best Picture. That corridor release is fucking cursed when it comes to winning any Oscar, let alone BP. Respectfully of course.
I've read Hamnet which is PHENOMENAL and Chloe Zhao is the perfect filmmaker to adapt it. It's lyrical and poetic and dreamy, right up her alley.
Thanks for doing this! So much to look forward to!
Amazing video as always guys!
I get the awards buzz for Michael but an Antoine Fuqua movie being a major main category contender also in for picture just doesn’t seem plausible yet
Training Day got 2 above the line noms back in the day I think it's completely in the realm of possibility.
It's the Bohemian Rhapsody package. Jaafar Jackson and Domingo being nominated plus sound, editing, costumes, should be enough
Michael is going to happen and people will continue to doubt it. Footage at cinemacon was apparently amazing too
good job, bro!
Kiss of the Spider Woman is surely a major contender no?
Doing all the work for me, this is great! Tom Cruise with Iñárritu and Lubezki sounds fascinating, hope it comes out this year.
One thing that I’m gonna take note of in predictions from now on is this: never predict a film to win from a previous director who won BP. If you are it’s a place holder as most BP winners are either from rising directors or established directors who have not had their due yet. For this, that’s why I agree on Marty Supreme, but also After The Hunt especially if Julia, Ayo & the script win based off reports
Take that even further!
Basically never predict someone to win who has even been nominated before. Outside of Oppenheimer and Birdman, 13/15 of the most recent Best Picture winners have been from filmmakers for whom it is their first Best Picture nomination.
And this year will almost certainly be the same with The Brutalist, Anora, and Emilia Perez seeming to be the ones to watch for the win (all from first time nominees).
Oppenheimer type wins are rare. Most of the time, the winner will be someone who is getting their first nomination.
@ Also, the last BP win from a Director who already won BP was Million Dollar Baby in what was a crazy year with ‘front runners’ left & right. Also, when do you think you’ll give an update on predictions, especially films like Judy are confirmed to delayed & others like PTA’s are rumored. Maybe March/April, post Sundance, Cannes lineup & cinemacon reactions? Loving your guys vids! Keep it up! 👍
I’m going to love hearing all of the different Oscar UA-cam channels possibly bring up Tyler, The Creator because of Marty Supreme, never thought that would happen
I’ve read the After a the Hunt script and I have a hard time seeing it being that strong. It will be a vehicle for Julia Roberts for sure but as a whole it just felt like a version of Tár that is missing the specificity and deep research into the world it’s set in that Tár had. Ayo’s character also came off as super one note to me, but it’s extremely baity material so she still has a good shot at a nom, altho I struggle to see her winning.
Kudos for putting this together. When doing super early predictions I have noticed that there are two types of years. There are years like 2023 or 2019 where we are aware of the big chunk of the major players from the beginning. Or there is 2022 or this past year where so many films absolutely crash and burn with The Son, Bardo, Empire of Light, Blitz, Joker: Folie a Deux and films come completely out of nowhere with Everything Everywhere All At Once, Top Gun: Maverick, The Brutalist, The Substance, Emilia Perez.. We'll see what happens this year. But goddammit if there will be a Best Picture nominee that wasn't among these 140 listed movies.
Some thoughts on the rankings: I understand your reasoning behind Baktan Cross, but I cannot doubt that. I think having Leo headlining the film can have slight help with the box office. If Judy doesn't come out you gotta have a Warner Bros list in the 10 though. For some reason I have a feeling that one of Avatar and Wicked sequels won't make it, maybe it's the Academy's reluctance to reward follow ups. I think Avatar will drop off if the reviews are similar to The Way of Water because I really felt that got nominated by the skin of it's teeth. I think it needs stronger reviews, but I could see Cameron pulling it off. The Roses sounds so fascinating, but Jay Roach just hasn't impressed me with his films, hopefully having McNamara on board helps. My theory has been that The History of Sound will be Searchlight's push. I've been eyeing Ella McCay as a hopeful, but you kinda brought me back down to earth. If Marty Supreme and Dune 3 get nominated, Timmy will have an unbelievable amount of Best Picture nominees under his belt at like 30 lol. Crazy. Sentimental Value feels like a prime This Had Oscar Buzz title to me for some reason. Hopefully I'm wrong because I love The Worst Person in the World. Have this feeling No Other Choice won't come out this year (it's still shooting)
DiCaprio has never been the huge draw he is seen to haven been, Killers of the Flower Moon crashed and burned at the box office. I'm hopeful on Batkan Cross but I won't be surprised if Zaslav and WBD sort of bury it by not giving enough for the promotion of the film. I'm done doubting James Cameron, I think Avatar 3 will be better than Way of Water. Wicked 2 is less likely but far to early to rule out.
He really is the best, isn't he??!
I will also add Jupiter by andrey zvyaginstev (potential palmdor winner)
my suoer ridiculously earliest Oscars 2026 predictions
Picture
The Life Of Chuck (Neon)
Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Superman (Warner Bros.)
The Immortal Man [aka Peaky Blinders film] (Netflix)
Hamnet (Focus Features)
Marty Supreme (A24)
Warfare (A24)
The Bride (??)
The Lost Bus (Apple Studios)
Caught Stealing (Sony Pictures)
28 Years Later (Sony Pictures)
The Phoenician Scheme (??)
Magic Farm (Mubi)
Ricky (??)
F1 (Warner Bros.)
Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix)
The Smashing Machine (A24)
The Way Of The Wind (??)
Hand Of Dante (??)
Plainclothes (??)
Kiss Of The Spider Woman (??)
The Running Man (Paramount Pictures)
The Thing With Feathers (??)
How To Train Your Dragon (Universal Pictures)
The Actor (Neon)
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures)
Eleanor The Great (??)
Omaha (??)
Materialists (A24)
Lilo & Stitch (Disney)
Captain America: Brave New World (Disney-Marvel Studios)
Thunderbolts (Disney-Marvel Studios)
I would have The Memory Police quite a bit higher. In my opinion Kaufman is the greatest screenwriter full stop and the source material is very interesting.
Re: Sorry Baby: Jenkins and Romanski also saw something in Dirt Roads Taste of Salt which had a vague description as well and also went to Sundance. So unless this movie had an actor who’s on the come up for their first Oscar nomination like Paul Mescal was at the time (which I don’t think it does), then I don’t see much of a path for this movie after Sundance. Unless it’s one of the best of the fest.
Superman will definitely appear in the tech categories just like GOTG 3 in visual effects last year.
only VFX but it's a crowded year for VFX heavy blockbusters, Avatar 3 will win it anyway. Jurassic World Rebirth, F1 Superman, Fantastic Four First Steps, Cap 4, Thunderbolts, Mission Impossible 8, Running Man, 28 years later, Wicked Pt 2, How to Train Your dragon, Preadtor Badlands and probably some light vfx films but are so good they are in contention
I think Fantastic four could also be contender like either The Batman or Dr Strange especially in Visual effects, makeup, score, sound, production design bc of the world building
W early predictions
Marketing for BoBC will be pivotal in how it does.
What about PTA’s film with regina hall?
You're excused on the pronounciation ;) It's kinda like "Yo-ah-keem Trier". Also, FYI Sentimental Value will get a new title when it comes out so we have to be aware of that.
Good points about Baktan Cross. I've got it very high on my list though. Agree on Chloe Zhao, Eternals doesn't count haha. And in the same vein as her, the next movie after a Best Picture-win doesn't have to be a masterpiece (I remember some people thinking Eternals for Best Picture-nom before its release), we have Bong. You're right on the money on Mickey 17. I don't think it's gonna be as bad as Eternals, but how they were about to burry that film, doesn't bode well. I think it's just gonna be completely fine, but nowhere near the Academy at all. I didn't know about I Love Boosters, and that one is definitely something that could ride the Demi Moore-train as you say. also don't think Bill Condon can bring back the magic. Very cool that you rank them and explain how they could fare in the awards race and how they could not. If I were to utter criticism, I would've loved for pictures to continue after the top 10. Understandable that most of these have little promo material/behind the scenes pictures right now, but maybe a marker/arrow that would go down for each title, so it's easier to follow? Anyway, just like last year, you're always giving out so many new titles for us to consider that we might not know about or think too much about. Merry Christmas and happy new year!
I’d add Animal Race by Fernando Meirelles
Oo, I wasn't aware of this one. Will add to the list!
I think The Life Of Chuck will get attention when it comes out..
Thanks for doing this. I was curious about films coming out next year. I'm excited about The History of Sound, although I hate the thought of straight actors getting nominated for queer roles when Andrew Scott couldn't get nominated for All of Us Strangers.
As someone who get mad when people drop top 10 lists before the years over this absolutely set me off
10:49 Yeah Colman Domingo really has to win Supporting Actor. He just has to!!!
no Sundance films?...
OMG, Kendrick Lamaar is in the "top 2 musicians of all time" for you? I'm shocked. I understand you are very young, but such striking recency bias? Top 2 of all time??🤦😳 What about Pink Floyd, The Beatles, The Doors, King Crimson, George Michael, Bach, Mozart, Vivaldi, Chopin etc?...
1:00:36 immaculate taste, Kendrick and Sufjan are two of the greatest ever
LOL, for Gen Z maybe. Probably you think there was no music before the 21st century.
@@ktom5262um... No lmao I just really like those too
@@JimothyChalamet Well, there's a difference between really liking something and thinking it's one of the greatest ever.
Rosebushpruning will be in English afaik.
a week early, you're too generous
I doubt that Michael Jackson biopic gets nominated "no matter what", it will be nominated only if it's good. If it get bad reviews it won't.
Nobody said The Bride is a musical lol. It just has a little dance and music numbers. Non of the cast are singers.
That list bit is simply not true. Jessie Buckley has literally performed in musicals on the West End and has sung in multiple movies. Christian Bale has also sung in movies before. Penelope Cruz has done musicals before. Jake Gyllenhaal has been on Broadway
You have missed The Brutalist, Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez and The Substance last year...
That Michael Jackson movie will be trash and people will pretend to be shocked that it gets the bohemian rhapsody oscar treatment.
In The Roses Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Coleman are playing the married couple...? Really? Olivia Coleman? She could play Benedict's mother. Are you sure?
They're basically the same age
I think OBAA can at least break even with a summer release and Leo’s star power.
I do think Materialists is too low.
I do not believe in Wicked 2. At all.
Judy 2026~
the whole list is garbage
They aren't out yet, how do you know they're garbage?