The INSANITY Of The Football Transfer Market
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- Опубліковано 1 чер 2024
- The European football transfer market is getting out of control. Should we be concerned?
Transcript and sources: footballiconic.com/the-insani...
Twitter: / theofficial_fi
Instagram: / chips009
Further Sources:
Deloitte: www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages...
CIES: football-observatory.com/Mont...
Speculative Bubble paper: link.springer.com/article/10....
Background music:
@pinkxo (Prod Pink)
00:00 - Introduction
02:29 - Follow the money
08:43 - Not worth it?
19:31 - Is this a bubble?
24:46 - What if?
Producer: Tinashe Chipako
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Correction for 00:46 - In 2019, Eden Hazard should replace Harry Kane for 100m. And Ronaldo should replace Hazard in 2018 for 100m.
Sorry about that!
Its okay, you‘re only human not like Zidane or someone
Camavinga gotchu. ;)
You can't talk about this subject without first talking about inflation, the pound has lost 44% of it's value since 2007
23:25 you said 2022 instead of 2020 no biggie tho
Why has the transfer values increased by 10x every 20-30 years since 1890? why can’t you show a logarithmic graph which would show that the market is slowing down. It’s not a bubble it’s just logarithmic growth which you’ll find in all sports that have become popular. From Basketball wages to table tennis tournament winnings, you’ll find they all grow logarithmically
To be fair to Transfermarkt, Mac Allister had a 42 mil release clause that he put in before the World Cup and after the World Cup his value rose to 65 mil. Liverpool just triggered his release clause.
On the other hand, Mbappe was still rated last summer at around 180 mil, while being out of contract, so basically free. So yeah, Transfermarkt prices are nowhere near real transfer fees, I dunno what they're supposed to be.
@@iulianju7893 I think you missed a key point, the transfer values and market values are different. A market value is how much a player is conceivably worth in the current market, regardless of their contractual situation, it's not an indicator of how much you could get said player for currently...
@@aldobonaso3481 than what's rly the point then? The market is relative so it has little use for ideal values.
@@iulianju7893To give clubs and agents an idea of how much a player should go for if his contract isn't ending soon based on his performance level in an always changing market.
Of course if the player has a very long contract the selling club can add to that value in negotiations just like the buyer can subtract from it if there is a short contract left, that's called leverage, the buyer can be like "50 million now or 0 in 6 months"
@@iulianju7893 the market value lets you tell how good a player currently is and how much the player could benefit the club on the pitch. It also lets you compare players easier since there's only one parameter - the price - to look at
I think this insanity is the reason why smaller clubs are hardly ever able to be competitive- because they _always_ lose their best players to the clubs that have the most money. Think N'Golo Kanté from Leicester City to Chelsea. Leicester lost a very important player and Chelsea gains another rising star to an already stacked team. As a fan of Leicester, I'd say that because of the current transfer market, we were INSANELY lucky to have had him on our squad for a year 😢
Dont forget you ripped us of with maguire. Smaller club sell their players at very high prices then complain.
Yes but if you ask the brits American sports are just about money and the fans aren’t real.
@@jofieji5312I live in the UK. I dont think Ive ever seen anyone say that
@@jofieji5312it’s just ignorance at the end of the day.
It’s a shame that parity models just aren’t viable for European football rn
@@trollinape2697 granted the internet is not real life. I see Europeans trashing American sports constantly online. That being said. It’s only bothersome because of how much I love football. European football is the greatest of all sports. Basketball and American football are both great. I’m American and love your sport but all I see is slander for “eggball” and for basketball and slander for the mls.
The amount of work you put into these vids, even just breaking down graphs and highlighting important stuff...it must really add up. Thanks a lot dude, your channel is great and appreciate such insightful analysis!
Cheers!
man i remember when caroll being bought for 35 million was a expensive panic buy
this days you buy a second division player for 30m and is considered cheap
@@obokemaosi9678check out the transfer window Mourinho has had with Roma and then say that again
@@obokemaosi9678 yeah i dont event see second division starters going for this price anymore by next season
Adjusted for transfer inflation and considering Caroll’s lack of experience, that fee is still shocking
I am still wondering why FIFA, UEFA, and all the other football bodies havent implemented a transfer cap. Like max of 150m per team. That will certainly reduce the asking prices for players.
Edit : first, transfer cap is different from a salary cap. For those saying thats why Eu football has ffp in place. Its a joke. It only keeps the big boys in play unless some oil giant buys a small club. Imagine having a tranfer cap pf 150m Euros. Suddenly, all the big clubs would be wary of spending their entire budget in a single player. This in turn will make the selling club less greedy in askjng for 100m++. Who the hell pays for 100m for a player with less than 30 league games(chelsea). Its ridiculous. Next year we wil have kids with any league game time goi g for that amount. Where do the big clubs apend their revenue? Stadium, youth recruitment, their community, or do a city and make a football.
IT is already in America in many
dports like NFL NHL MLS NBA.
@@vivalafrance1278it isn't special to America itself it it common all over the world
Anyways it is dumb to ask for a salary cap cause the clubs are making more so they are ready to spend more that is without mentioning the influence of the game which can't be priced .
Bro they actively try to increase the money exchanged in the game, why would they do that?
@@pratibhanaik3062 tbh it would be way better if they invested more money into stadiums, academies and stuff like that instead of spending hundreds of millions every year on ''youngsters''
It is important to note that Madrid signed Jude Bellingham for 103m initially, but his transfer does include bonuses which take his fee closer to 135m. I think the bigger problem with the market now is that everyone from the uefa to the super clubs, prem clubs and teams outside of the elite are not willing to come to a compromise to ensure the game has parity. Everyone has selfish vested interests and are unwilling to “give and take” in order to make the football ecosystem more equal, I expect things to get worse before they get better tbh.
That's true.
For me, that kid values that. But others, don't even close
Madrid also has a good net spend for the past 10 years. Prior to signing Bellingham, in 2022 they were around 40th for net spend. They can achieve those numbers through sales. They're still using Carvajal as a RB, showing they can't just spend freely.
Football is not an ecosystem. Ecosystems and ecological systems that belong to nature and are composed of several layers of living creatures.
Stop using this word wrongly, for God's sake. That's just bad English.
@@Cecil_Augus But football is kind of an ecosystem, there are big animals that feed on smaller ones.
As much as everyone looks down on the MLS and the American sports landscape, you can't deny that their salary cap structure would do wonders in Europe... For those who are unaware, here's a super simplified explanation: every team in the league has a salary cap and it's the same for every team, whether it's a big market like Los Angeles / New York or a smaller one like Denver / Salt Lake City. However, each team gets three "Designated Player" slots that they can use on higher quality players and there's no limit on what they can spend on those contracts (it's how Inter Miami can sign a Lionel Messi, for example)
Because of this structure, you can never have a Bayern/PSG/City/Madrid/Barça situation where the same teams win the league title every year and poach the best players from smaller teams. Miami already has their three slots occupied by Messi, Busquets, and Josef Martinez so they can't just go buy the hottest prospects in the league like Thiago Almada from Atlanta United, Facundo Torres from Orlando City, or Talles Magno from New York City to build a super team. Even if they had $1B in their hands, they wouldn't be able to spend it within the cap
In Europe, a Man City can look over at an Erling Haaland type player and sign them for any price despite having Foden, Pedri, Silva, Grealish, De Brune, etc. on the roster already. A Real Madrid can look over at a Jude Bellingham type player and sign them for any price despite having Vinicius, Valverde, Rodrygo, Kroos, Modric, etc. on the roster already
Imagine if Madrid could only keep three of the players I named and they had to sell the others because they couldn't fit within the salary cap. What would happen? Those players, like Kroos and Modirc let's say, would go play for Valencia, Sevilla, etc. and you'd have quality players spread out across the league. That's how it is in MLS, that's why there's been six different champions in the last six years
But I guess the question comes now. What is a “high quality” player. Like you mentioned there are superstars such as Haaland, Salah, Son, etc. but which body governs this? Is it based on the cost of transfer fee? Is it their achievements? How will they structure the salary band?
Is it unfair that clubs can buy their way to the top? Sure.
Do we want to completely change the system?
Then we wouldn't get special highlights like Leicester winning the league. Porto winning champions league.
That is why football is and special.
I also find it amusing how what you describe is pretty much a communist system while europe has capitalist free market system.
@@sora9304 that question wouldn’t be answered by you and me, it’d be answered by the clubs. Just give everyone in the prem a £100M salary budget and three DPs, then let them figure out who they want to spend it on
@@jasse85 I don’t know about that.. FC Cincinnati was dead last in the MLS standings for three years in a row from 2019-2021 and was statistically the worst team in league history. They are currently top of the table, 10 points clear of second place with only eight games remaining. That’s pretty special to me. I’m not even a Cincinnati fan but I’m rooting for them to lift the shield. Miami being dead last in the league this year, then using their DP slots wisely and lifting the Leagues Cup title in the same summer is pretty special. What Leicester City did was absolutely special but what happened next? Kante went to Chelsea, Mahrez went to city.. at the end of the 2023 season, Miami won’t be able to buy Lucho Acosta from FC Cincinnati even if they had the money for it, they don’t have a DP spot for it. That makes the league fun and competitive
America continues to show the world how it’s done. USA USA USA USA 🇺🇸
In all seriousness, we may get the cap right, but the lack of real consequence for losing, like relegation, makes our sports kind of silly. It’s the same 30ish teams competing year in and year out. We don’t have international competition to showcase our best teams, so at the end of the day, none of this means anything. Our worst teams get rewarded with perks to help them rebuild. We even have teams lose deliberately to gain those loser perks. Would be nice to see the Lakers play a euro club, or the Yankees play a Japanese club in a competition that actually means something. Oh well.
the bigger problem is the money the clubs get from playing in the champions league. If you play champions league for 30 years like bayern etc , its hard for teams to compete with them in the national league when you dont get that money.
It should be hard for you to compete with Bayern. They are Bayern. They’ve played champions league 30 years for a reason.
Yes it should be hard but you get what i say, they play 30 years because you get big money every season from it. They are doing good work with that money no doubt.@@Tx2bx
@@Tx2bx Exactly. But if you're Manchester City and suddenly get a fund from a whole country and start to yearly compete in the UCL, now that can be criticized.
Look at it this way, in the past Bayern had bad years, in the 90s they had a short relegation scare even at one point during a season.
By the 2000s Bayern hardly ever finished worse than 2nd and no they have won the league 11 years in a row. A bad year for Bayern now means they win the title on the last day of the season and while that is partially due to Dortmund being stupid during that finish and Bayern working well for all those years, CL money is the main cause for the dominance.
I would not call a league that - maybe - once in a decade is won by the second super-team of the league, competitive.
It should be hard to beat them, not downright impossible.@@Tx2bx
Times are changing fast, now there is a second premier league club (Newcastle) that is owned by a country. I wonder who shall be next.
FYI, when Alf Common became the first British player to command a transfer fee of £1,000, it sparked uproar at the time, with so-called football 'purists' believing it could create a new brand of mercenary players. This was in 1905, adjusted for inflation would be £155,564.68.
In other landmarks, the £5,000 mark was first reached in 1922 when Falkirk paid West Ham United's Syd Puddefoot, and six years later Arsenal paid the first ever £10,000 fee to acquire David Jack of Bolton Wanderers.
In south america there's been a huge change where we can't retain the players anymore as we used to, so getting high fees for them is really good since we can invest them in more south american players or facilities. That doesn't happen in europe since they are importers not exporters to other regions(That are not asia/US).
Messi's transfer fee in his whole career is 0 , he went everywhere as a free agent.
😂 👌
And Barcelona still has to pay him until 2025
This is not about Messi
It's amazing how much effort you put into these videos! Thank you so much! Finances are both a hot button issue, yet also very boring to many fans. The way you explain it, and the graphics you use are so helpful!
Have a great week! 🙏😍🍿🖖
This is by far my favourite football essay on this topic. Excellent work
I pray you live a long, healthy and happy life, man. Love your content. 🫰🏼
Keep producing. Cheers.
Love the content. I like the longer episodes and the ones you go more in-depth (20+ minutes). Wish we could see more of those even if that will mean a bigger gap between uploads. But at the same time, not entirely certain on how YT algorithm works, so best I can do is hope. Thanks!
This is one of your best videos man. Your one of the best football channels there is on UA-cam that is actually informative. Thanks for the time you spent on this video as your one of the few that has awareness for type of stuff. Of course there were a few mistakes in your video but keep up the good work. Also wanting for the Man Utd rant (when it comes that is)
Wonder how long until Neymar's record for a single transfer to be broken? Assume Mbappe will not be sold this season. I give it 3-5 years.😂😂😂
I think Bellingham will be the guy who breaks it. He's 19, English, and looking like the greatest midfielder of his generation. Would not surprise me if Man United/Chelsea/City look at him in 5 years and pay 200 mil+. You'll have all the pundits/England teammates telling Jude that he should be in the PL and he might be tempted.
@@AbhiramSaranThat’s like asking Barca to let go of Pedri. No way will Madrid let that happen.
@@DBrealmadrid9606 They may not have a different choice. If a player really doesn't want to play for your club anymore their is no point in keeping him.
@lexxihd5843 why would he want to do that tho? He is in the biggest club that is financially healthy and has the greatest talentpool in the world. As long as they fix their striker issue tge champions league is practically a given in the next 5 years.
@@user-yj7ve5zv9n I agree. I don't think he would want that. But nowadays players like to experience different countries and leagues. Maybe Bellingham is one of them.
absolutely love this kind of content , please make of this
Never been so early in my life. Started watching your videos for football knowledge (started watching football last season) and I have not looked back. Keep up the great work!
Absolutely loved this video. You're hands down one of my favorite football channels on UA-cam. Keep up the good work.
This is a great video, Tinashe! Thanks for the hard work on this sometimes incomprehensible topic. Definetly learned something!
Just want to thank you for the channel, the quality of the videos, the deep analysis and all the info. I have been following for about a year and just wanted to express my respect and gratitude
Strong video, broski! You're a compelling storyteller and definitely one of the very best for footy content on youtube.
If you wanted to do longer format videos (maybe even a podcast), I, for one, would be down.
I'm not sure how to explain this, but there's also an interesting angle to explore in this video where Brighton has a secret system to recruit. To be clear, that's the best way to do it, every club needs a secret system that studies the best players of every leagye and then based on the results they offer some money to the team. But! As the video suggest, the influence of outside sources where we can't control how to they choose what's the value of a player will always influence the fee (I think)
Great video as always.
Their formula seems to work. Another club in their constellation is also doing very well with their system of scouting and discovering players.
When you see players who played at Union Sainte Gilloise in Belgium, some of those players transferred to Germany, France and England are doing great now.
Been waiting on a new video. Thanks Tinashe 🙏
What is excellently crafted video! Very good journalism tackling some bespoke topics that answers a lot of key questions!
Tinashe I just want you to know that your effort and the amount of work you put into these videos does not go unnoticed! Another amazing piece with the already regular top visuals, insightful questions being raised and important discussions being had. Great job once again and keep at it!
Love your content! The balance between deep analysis, humor and valid argumentation is unmatched on the platform. Keep up the good work!
This is such a great vid man. Might be your best yet. Keep on.
Love watching your long vids while I do cardio. Great job love the content 🙏🏻
Love from Amsterdam bro! You never miss
again and again, amazing and catchy video. really you’re doing amazing and I hope you blow up and get the recognition you deserve!
This one of the best football videos i have ever seen i. my entire life. Thanks!
this is the best football channel on youtube. keep it up man. i rely on this ball knowledge
This was great, I’d definitely love to see more content on the football finance/business/economy Side of it, keep it up!!
Nice vid as always! Quality man☀️👌🏻
Congratulations on your engagement!!
Your vids are great bro keep it up
you´re easily the best football channel out there, there´s not one video of yours i haven´t seen by now and the cherry on top is that you´re a united fan like me hahaha. keep up the grind, greetings from mexico!
Finally. Finally. Someone had to talk about the transfer market and honestly, it makes me quite uninterested in the sport. I still watch matches, don't get me wrong, but it's been devastating to watch billions spent in the sport. Even the smaller leagues are fun. If only for Neymar... and Barcelona breaking the bank to buy Dembele. Could it have been stopped if Barca didn't pay the amount for Dembele? And would that mean that Neymar's transfer would have been the only anomaly in a world where a maximum of 100 mil was the cap, following Bale's deal?
Whats wrong with the money?
@@Marex5341 its wayyyyy too much, and gives a huge adv to clubs with money, the good teams get better and the worse teams get worse and worse, makes for less competetive leagues all around over time
im an airdrie fan and hearts fan its only really a problem for the big leages the spfl a top 9 leage and the polish lege isnt a problem
@@Daniyal731 Sorry i dont understand your "english"
Nah it would've given the same result. PSG bought Mbappe that very same transferperiod for 175 mil. Or at least they loaned him the first season because of FFP, but they had to buy him the year after.
The market was doomed to explode since the ultra rich owners jouned the game
Great video, i would love to see more financial videos on the channel!
I miss these long videos from you bro they're always entertaining
You're too underrated bro😭😭😭
Another great video! You never disappoint
Great watch as always 👊🏿
Man, Tinashe's videos are so dope that i could listen to him all day🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
4:08 As a data professional this graph is not easy to grasp for the time it's on the screen. Try removing the border and of the bars and it's bang on. Great choice of colors though.
Anyway, your content is Great and thank you for the continued fresh view on football matters.
This was excellent. Great content and analysis, informative visualizations, and some genuine LOL moments in the narration. Thanks a lot.
My view has always been that there is a bubble that will burst, but this video got me thinking. Maybe it really is bullet proof. But we'll see what happens if a mojor war breaks out, or aliens invade.
well a major war or aliens invading sounds way worse than prices going up for players..
Jesus Christ, this is one of the best pieces of content I’ve consumed this year. Your ability to precisely and understandably convey your point is pretty much unparalleled. Would love for you to make more videos regarding these topics!!
I know you probably won't believe but you videos have a way of bringing passion back for football I cannot explain I get Goosebumps when I see a notification and you critique videos remind me of my love and hate for the game. Thank you as always!
consistently good video like always, whould love to see more videos of this topic and football industry in general
Amazing video, my dude.
The GIF of Zidane's headbutt when he says "mind blowing" was amazing! 😂😂 I love your videos mate! Thanks for the content!
Very good video ! Really impressed 👊🏾
I love your channel!
Great video my brother. We need to get you on Football Platforms!
Great video man
No joke bro, I’ve watched EVERY video of yours. Please keep making content!
Best voice on UA-cam Period. Great work young man.
Great video!
I love this channel so much I always come here after an analytical view from tifo for a sarcastic analysis and lightly analysis and non stop ranting
Great researched vid.
Fantastic video my guy. Also gotta say your humor is top notch mate 😂 did like a year in economics so yes I am an expert in this
Great content, great research
The year is 2035,Al Greedies buys a 12yo talent for 150millions euro, he’s the cheapest player to be bought in the last decade
Excellent! thank you.
in the man united reaction video you said you were going to release something that wasn’t reaction content next so I was expecting a team history or something BUT A TRANSFER MARKET VIDEO, I was like Michael Jackson in a movie theater, great video man🙏
When I was a kid, being worth 100m Euros would mean you are a global star, but since neymar and bale it seems as one Good season and player is worth 80-100. Crazy.
Dope vid, very well done.
Fire video and fire shirt man!
Wonderful video. Extremely well researched in a niche effect of sports - the specific economic effect of transfers.
Love it. Please cite some sources so that those of us interested can do some further reading
All of the sources are in the description - in text referencing
I like these longer, in-depth vids, but I will admit that I often have to watch over a couple sittings due to the length. I just don't have that much time. I'll probably watch it through a second time though.
One of the best videos so far ❤
I guess the bubble will break soon.
Hey, its' been a while since your 'How good was X" videos, would love to see them back as they add something really unique to the channel! As always, great video
awesome episode, one of the very best from Tinashe! Loved it! Keep it up!
This guy makes the best videos. He should really should be on TV, great voice
You’ve outdone yourself, quality video as always, but this one hits different. Great insight and dialogue on the not so hidden problem plaguing the sport. End of the day, it’s all about the money.
A 30 minute video with constant quality and clear intense research
Dude puts the iconic in football iconic
Good job Tinashe, this one seems more researched, more in-depth, and feels longer (maybe I just enjoy these topics more 😆). Props to you friend, you did amazing once again. Love ❤️🎉
absolutely, please do more stuff about the finances of football
It's worth noting that the insanity of this summer transfer window also coincided with the death of Trevor Francis. The Englishman became the first professional footballer to have a world-record transfer of 1 million pound fee, when he was signed for Nottingham Forest in the winter 1979. He eventually scored the only winning goal when the club won the first European Cup against Malmo.
At the same time of Francis' demise, Kylian Mbappe was reportedly linked with Al Hilal, when the club bid with a world-record fee of around 1 billion pound, but this was rejected and he decided to stay with Paris Saint Germain.
Insane amount of research went into this one wow👏
Excellent video
This is a fantastic video essay
Tnx for rocking the Ajax kit!
Awesome thanks!
Great video, love your content. Keep it up!!,
that pause actually finally made me like and subscribe 🤙🏽
Top notch content as always. Better than Athletic at times. Really like your videos.
fantastic video
this video is beautiful. Almost like an intro to the modern day transfer market
I think there should be a limit to the amount a player can be sold. Some of the prices of players are outrageous taking into consideration their age and how they even perform poorly.
In the end the club loses by selling the player for less and paying his salaries every week despite the players poor performance.
Might be one of your best videos😊
Great video
New subscriber here...I love the content..keep it up bro🏌♂️
Top level content!
Absolutely top quality content
Great video, keep it up.
Great video my guy, but I'm honestly very despondent about the future of football at the moment, and feeling very jaded by the whole industry of it. Mainly that comes from FIFA and UEFA being disgustingly greedy, and very poorly run dictatorships. To that point, I feel you also missed a KEY part of the reason why the Super League was even conceptualised in the first place, and that is to allow clubs to have a bigger say in the direction and sustainability of their respective clubs and leagues, and the sport as a whole, considering they are the ones taking all the financial risks, but they essentially just have to go along for the ride when it comes to increased fixture schedules etc. risks to their players, and all of it just to increase the profits for UEFA and FIFA essentially. But anyway, I personally don't think things can continue like this, and European football, outside of the EPL, is in a massive financial problem...and this effects everybody in the long run, even the EPL...because when they're the only ones left...you've lost the spectacle that was once the pinnacle of the sport...
It's dangerous on the long term. There was always groundbreaking transfers, but the problem now is that Premier League teams and Saudi teams have the possibility of paying a lot more than any team in the world. That could result in a group of players, in the future, having nowhere to go unless they significantly decrease their salaries and fire their camp.
All in all, the Premier League was built to work wonders. There's a reason the english clubs pay a lot more money for players, they have more revenue from anything else! However, paying money for unproven players can still break the market. Also, having clubs like City and PSG being owned by entire countries also broke the "Success gets you money" path in football. Which means, there's a bigger search for investiment than invest to have sporting success, which is dangerous.